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Background TAS-102 is indicated for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) previously treated with, or not considered candidates for, available therapies. Given the complete inefficacy in half of patients, the lack of predictive factors, the palliative setting, and the financial and clinical toxicity, optimizing the cost-benefit ratio is crucial. The “ColonLife” nomogram allows an estimate of the 12-week life expectancy of patients with refractory mCRC. Materials and Methods We collected data from patients treated at eight Italian centers in the compassionate use program. Baseline characteristics of patients who were or were not progression free at 6 months were compared. The discriminative ability of the ColonLife nomogram was assessed. Among patients who received both TAS-102 and regorafenib, clinical outcomes of the two sequences were compared. Results This study included 341 patients. Six (2%) and 93 (27%) patients achieved response and disease stabilization, respectively. The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 2.4 months with an estimated 6-month PFS rate of 19%; the median overall survival (OS) was 6.2 months. An Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) of 0, normal lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and a time from the diagnosis of metastatic disease of >18 months were independently associated with higher chances of a patient being progression free at 6 months. The discriminative ability of ColonLife was confirmed. Among 121 patients who received both regorafenib and TAS-102, no differences in first or second PFS or OS were reported between the two sequences. Conclusion One out of five patients achieves clinical benefit with TAS-102. ECOG PS, LDH, and time from diagnosis of metastatic disease may help to identify these patients. Excluding patients with very short life expectancy appears a reasonable approach. Implications for Practice Improving the cost-efficacy ratio of TAS-102 in metastatic colorectal cancer is needed to spare useless toxicities in a definitely palliative setting. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, lactate dehydrogenase levels, and time from the diagnosis of metastatic disease may help to identify patients more likely to achieve benefit. Properly designed prognostic tools (i.e., the “ColonLife” nomogram) may enable excluding from further treatments patients with very limited life expectancy.

Background: No tools to predict the probability of extrahepatic disease progression (ePD) of initially unresectable, liver-limited metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) are currently available. To estimate the likelihood to develop ePD and to identify clinical and molecular factors that could predict extrahepatic progression-free survival (ePFS), we conducted an observational, retrospective, multicentre cohort study. Methods: We retrospectively identified a cohort of 225 patients with initially unresectable liver-limited disease (LLD), treated from January 2004 to December 2017 with first-line doublets or triplet plus a biological agent at two Italian institutions. Results: 173 (77%) patients experienced ePD which occurred within 1, 2 or 3 years from the diagnosis of mCRC in 15%, 49% and 66% of patients, respectively. Globally, 164 (73%) patients underwent a liver resection at some point of their disease history, and 54 (33%) of them underwent a subsequent locoregional treatment. Age > 70 years, locoregional nodal involvement at diagnosis of colorectal cancer and ≥4 liver metastases were significantly associated with higher risk of ePD while liver resections were associated with reduced risk of ePD. In the multivariable model, number of liver metastases (subdistribution HR, SHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.36; p = 0.01) and liver resections (SHR 0.43, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.63; p = 0.001) were still associated with ePD. Number of liver metastases < 4, no nodal involvement at diagnosis and liver resections were also associated with prolonged ePFS. Conclusions: The identified clinical factors could help physicians in personalising the intensity and aggressiveness of liver-directed treatments in patients with mCRC with initially unresectable LLD.