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A climate system which is transitioning from one state to another is known as an abrupt climate change. Most of the recent studies regarding abrupt climate change have focused on the changes occurring before and after the abrupt change point, while little attention has been given to the "transition process" which occurs when the system breaks away from the original state to a new state. In this study, a novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change was presented. By using the mathematical model based on the Logistic model, the process of the abrupt change could be analyzed and divided into different phases which include start moment, end moment, stable state, and unstable transition state. Meanwhile, the method was confirmed to be effective by testing in a study of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time sequence, and the results of this study specify that this abrupt change process of PDO has a relationship with global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a dynamical system approaches its critical threshold, the probability density distribution of the system will change significantly. Therefore, it is possible to present an early warning signal based on the changing skewness before reaching the critical threshold. Based on a zero‐dimensional climate model and several typical fold models, this paper systematically studies the influence of noise and missing data on the performance of the skewness coefficient as an early warning signal of an abrupt climate change. The results in three types of fold models show that the skewness coefficient has anti‐noise ability to some extent, but strong noise will significantly reduce the magnitude of the skewness coefficient and the time for early warning will also be shortened. In some cases, strong noise even will lead to the result that the skewness does not work in warning an impending abrupt change. However, the influence of strong noise on skewness is insignificant in the zero‐dimensional climate model. Therefore, the influence of strong noise needs to be considered in the practical application of the skewness coefficient as an early warning signal of an abrupt change. In addition, the results of all the models also indicate that different degrees of the missing data have no statistically significant effect on the warning performance of the skewness coefficient, even when the length of the missing data is up to 20% of the total sample size used in the present paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The practice of religions and spirituality is common in Africa. In many ways, religion may be considered as a routine of life, living and practising it either as inherited or borrowed. Religious pluralism is a reality in Africa, dating back to the 1st century up to the 19th century when Africa became a bedrock of traders and colonisers both from Europe and Asia. The paper explores plural religiosity with a view to developing a conducive atmosphere that may promote a suitable inter-religious dialogue in Africa. Largely, the most pronounced and practised religions are Christianity symbolised by the cross, Islam symbolised by the crescent, and African indigenous religion that does not have a common symbol nor sacred scriptures. We note that, for generations, religions have caused division among communities, but have in the recent years developed the quest to create good relations and dialogue with each other. Because of the diverse nature of insecurity in Africa, it is hoped that inter-religious dialogue may cause community cohesion, integration, inclusivity, and co-existence. In the wake of different types of inter-religious dialogue that are globally being researched, this paper suggests a specific inter-religious dialogue that Africans can exercise: 'dialogue for life'. Contribution: Inter-religious dialogue for life is contextual in that, it touches upon the life situations of ordinary people in society. The author argues that, by embracing it religiously, inter-religious dialogue for life shall address crucial issues such as poverty, radicalisation, terrorism, climate change, bad governance, and human trafficking that adversely affect African society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1950s, divergence problems have reduced the temporal stability of tree rings in response to climate, shaken the foundations of dendroclimatology, and affected the reliability of reconstructed models based on tree rings and the accuracy of historical climate series. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate divergence problems, which will help us to better understand the growth strategies of trees in response to climate warming and provide a scientific basis for accurate climate reconstruction and simulation of forest dynamics. This paper aims to elucidate the mechanism of divergent growth of Picea schrenkiana at high altitudes in the western Tianshan from three aspects: variations in atmospheric circulation, changes in climatic factors, and the coping strategy of trees with climate change. High spring temperatures accelerate the melting of snow cover. Large amounts of snowmelt initially replenish soil water, leading to the rapid growth of trees, but later, the continuous consumption of snowmelt reduces the available water capacity of soil, resulting in water stress on trees. The pattern of trees' response to changes in climate ranges from a pure temperature limitation to a collaborative temperature–moisture limitation. Since the 1990s, the weakening of the westerly circulation and the North Atlantic Oscillation has reduced their impacts on the hydroclimate in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia. The combination of heat-induced water deficit and a long-term weakening trend in atmospheric circulation has slowed tree growth over the past decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparison of feature detectors and evaluation of their performance is very important in computer vision. A new algorithm is proposed in this paper to compare the performance of four corner feature detectors based on abrupt shot boundary detection. The proposed algorithm consists of two stages: feature vectors generation where corner detector for all video frames is computed to obtain the descriptor feature vectors, and features matching where the number of matching features between two successive frames is calculated. The corner feature detectors used in this paper are BRISK, Harries, MinEigen, and FAST. Experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm using MinEigen features detector provides better performance than other features detectors where the average value of recall, precision, and F measure is 0.99083, 0.98808, and 0.98875 for selected testing videos respectively. The results also show that the FAST is superior to others feature detectors when considering execution time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, correlations between vegetation dynamics (represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) and hydro-climatological factors were systematically studied in Lake Baiyangdian during the period from April 1998 to July 2008. Six hydro-climatological variables including lake volume, water level, air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and sunshine duration were used, as well as extracted NDVI series data representing vegetation dynamics. Mann-Kendall tests were used to detect trends in NDVI and hydro-climatological variation, and a Bayesian information criterion method was used to detect their abrupt changes. A redundancy analysis (RDA) was used to determine the major hydro-climatological factors contributing to NDVI variation at monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales. The results were as follows: (1) the trend analysis revealed that only sunshine duration significantly increased over the study period, with an inter-annual increase of 3.6 h/year ( p < 0.01), whereas inter-annual NDVI trends were negligible; (2) the abrupt change detection showed that a major hydro-climatological change occurred in 2004, when abrupt changes occurred in lake volume, water level, and sunlight duration; and (3) the RDA showed that evaporation and temperature were highly correlated with monthly changes in NDVI. At larger time scales, however, water level and lake volume gradually became more important than evaporation and precipitation in terms of their influence on NDVI. These results suggest that water availability is the most important factor in vegetation restoration. In this paper, we recommend a practical strategy for lake ecosystem restoration that takes into account changes in NDVI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water shortage has plagued the social development and human well-being of global closed basins. However, the hydroclimate research on different time scales in these regions remains inadequate at a global scale. In this paper, the hydrological responses from global closed basins to millennial-scale and centennial-scale cold/warm events since the Last Glacial Maximum were explored. Closed-basin lake records indicate that the westerlies-dominated closed basins are generally wetter during cold events than the corresponding warm ones on the millennial and centennial scales. In contrast, the monsoon-influenced closed basins prevail wetter climates during warm events. According to the hydroclimate simulations, precipitation seasonality plays a significant role in causing above spatial–temporal patterns. There is more winter rainfall in westerlies-dominated closed basins during cold events in the Last Glacial Maximum and Little Ice Age and more summer rainfall in monsoon-influenced closed basins during warm events in the mid-Holocene and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under modern and future global warming, the hydroclimate changes in global closed basins show more regional differentiation, resulting in wetter mid-latitude Asian and low-latitude African closed basins but drier southwest North American and Australian closed basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper builds on recent research on the abrupt cooling event known as GS1 (Younger Dryas) from ca. 12.9 to 11.7 ka cal. BP. These studies have indicated the diversity of local responses to this period between different regions across Europe. Research has indicated both responses and lack of responses of humans to this event in different regions. In accordance with this research, this paper argues that it is necessary to move away from global models of human responses to the analysis of regional scales. We argue that it is necessary to consider the evolutionary dynamics that predated the GS1 cooling event before identifying its potential impact. This paper focuses on this aspect of the problem by considering evidence from three mountainous areas: the Pyrenees, the northern French Alps and Jura, and lastly southern and Apuan Alps. Recently studied sites are considered with specific attention to lithic industries. Our analysis focuses on (1) the identifiable changes in each industry and (2) the relationship with pre-existing cultural and technological dynamics. The analysis has produced two main results. First, there was a tendency towards a decrease in the standardization of blanks, especially in blades, which was common to the different areas. This change, however, predated GS1 and can therefore not be associated with cooling at the start of GS1. Second, the Northern Alps and Jura, in contrast to the two other areas, seems to reveal a break from the lithic technological traditions that occurred around 12.9 ka cal BP or the early stages of GS1. These results enable a discussion of the different mechanisms that can explain differential regional responses to GS1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: This paper systematically reviews the glacial geomorphological evidence of the Loch Lomond Stadial (LLS; Younger Dryas) glaciation in Britain (12.9–11.7 ka). The geomorphology of sub‐regions within Scotland, England and Wales is assessed, providing the most comprehensive synthesis of this evidence to date. The contrasting nature of the evidence at the local scale is reviewed and conceptual themes common to multiple sub‐regions are examined. Advancements in glaciological theory, mapping technologies, numerical modelling and dating have been applied unevenly to localities across Britain, inhibiting a holistic understanding of the extent and dynamics of the LLS glaciation at a regional scale. The quantity and quality of evidence is highly uneven, leading to uncertainties regarding the extent of glaciation and inhibiting detailed analysis of ice dynamics and chronology. Robust dates are relatively scarce, making it difficult to confidently identify the limits of LLS glaciers and assess their synchroneity. Numerical models have allowed the glacier–climate relationships of the LLS to be assessed but have, thus far, been unable to incorporate local conditions which influenced glaciation. Recommendations for future research are made that will allow refined reconstructions of the LLS in Britain and contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of glacier–climate interactions during the Younger Dryas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term evolution of deep-sea turbidity current activity is closely related to climate and sea level changes; however, the impact of abrupt climate change (e.g. millennial-scale events in high northern latitudes) is poorly known. In this paper, deep-sea turbidite records in the western part of the lower Bengal Fan were identified since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to investigate the effects of abrupt climate change on the development of the Earth's largest deep-sea fan. Our records show a termination of turbidite activity in the western lower fan at 16.6 ka–15.4 ka almost contemporaneous with Heinrich 1 event (a cooling stadial in high northern latitudes). The trigger of this termination in turbidite activity may have been a sharp decrease in erosion rates during a time of relatively stable sea level and rapid source-sink processes. The subsequent episodes of the Bolling/Allerod warm interstadial and Younger Dryas cold stadial and the rapid sea level rise event that followed possibly induced adjustment of turbidity current activities in the Bengal Fan, as indicated by other published records. In summary, we show that close links exist between abrupt climate changes in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and deep-sea turbidity current activity in the low-latitude South Asia. • Deep-sea turbidite records in the Bengal Fan since LGM were recovered. • Termination of turbidite in the western lower fan was triggered by HS1 event. • Links between high latitudes climate and low latitudes sedimentation were revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper studies how the anthropogenic-induced global warming affects the East Asian winter monsoon ( EAWM) by using 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 ( CMIP5) models. The simulated present-day EAWM is evaluated and future projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are presented in terms of the climatology and interannual variability. All 26 models can well reproduce the spatial pattern of EAWM climatology and 16 out of the 26 models can reasonably capture major features of interannual variability. The projection made by 26-model ensemble mean indicate that winter surface air temperature averaged over 20°-60°N, 100°-140°E will increase by 3 °C in RCP4.5 and 5.5 °C in RCP8.5 towards the end of the 21st century. The corresponding regional mean precipitation will increase by 12.3% in RCP4.5 and 21.8% in RCP8.5. The strong warming over high-latitude North Pacific due to melting sea ice in the Bering Sea and Okhotsk Sea leads to significant intensification and a northward shift of the Aleutian Low, resulting in prominent increase in the low-level northerly along the coastal regions of northeastern Asia. At 500 hPa the characteristic East Asian Trough is projected to weaken slightly and tilt more eastward with latitude. The selected 16-model ensemble mean projects future enhanced interannual variability of surface air temperature and sea-level pressure over mid-latitude North Pacific and high-latitude East Asia ( EA) and reduced variability over eastern China, suggesting that the EAWM will be more variable in the high-latitude EA and mid-latitude North Pacific but less variable in East China. Accordingly, the year-to-year precipitation variability will be significantly enhanced over high-latitude EA. Majority of the 26 models project that the leading mode of EAWM interannual variation (the 'northern mode') will become more dominant in the warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a time series segmentation algorithm combining a clustering technique and a genetic algorithm to automatically find segments sharing common statistical characteristics in paleoclimate time series. The segments are transformed into a six-dimensional space composed of six statistical measures, most of which have been previously considered in the detection of warning signals of critical transitions. Experimental results show that the proposed approach applied to paleoclimate data could effectively analyse Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events and uncover commonalities and differences in their statistical and possibly their dynamical characterisation. In particular, warning signals were robustly detected in the GISP2 and NGRIP $$\delta ^{18}\hbox {O}$$ ice core data for several DO events (e.g. DO 1, 4, 8 and 12) in the form of an order of magnitude increase in variance, autocorrelation and mean square distance from a linear approximation (i.e. the mean square error). The increase in mean square error, suggesting nonlinear behaviour, has been found to correspond with an increase in variance prior to several DO events for $$\sim $$ 90 % of the algorithm runs for the GISP2 $$\delta ^{18}\hbox {O}$$ dataset and for $$\sim $$ 100 % of the algorithm runs for the NGRIP $$\delta ^{18}\hbox {O}$$ dataset. The proposed approach applied to well-known dynamical systems and paleoclimate datasets provides a novel visualisation tool in the field of climate time series analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Little is known about how marine biodiversity responds to oceanographic and climatic changes over the decadal to centennial time-scales which are most relevant for predicted climate changes due to greenhouse gas forcing. This paper aims to reveal decadal-centennial scale deep-sea biodiversity dynamics for the last 20,000 years and then explore potential environmental drivers. Location The North Atlantic Ocean. Methods We investigated deep-sea benthic microfossil records to reveal biodiversity dynamics and subsequently applied comprehensive ecological modelling to test possible environmental factors (i.e. surface productivity, seasonality of productivity or deepwater circulation related to bottom-water temperature) that may have influenced deep-sea biodiversity over these time-scales. Results Deep-sea biodiversity changed synchronously with stadial-interstadial climate changes over the last 20,000 years across a large area of the North Atlantic in both ostracod crustaceans and foraminiferan protozoa (in spite of their different dispersal abilities). Species diversity rapidly increased during abrupt stadial events during the last deglacial and the Holocene interglacial periods. These include the well-known Heinrich 1, the Younger Dryas and the 8.2 ka events when the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC) decreased. There is also evidence for quasi-cyclic changes in biodiversity at a c. 1500-year periodicity, consistent with the well-known '1500-year climatic cycle'. Statistical analyses revealed that AMOC variability (probably specifically the variability in AMOC-driven bottom-water temperature) is correlated with deep-sea biodiversity. Main conclusions Our finding of a significant AMOC-diversity relationship may indicate pervasive control of the diversity of deep-sea benthic species by rapidly changing climate, specifically bottom-water temperature, over decadal to centennial time-scales. Our results, based on highly resolved fossil records, may portend pervasive, synchronous and sudden ecosystem responses to human-induced changes to climate and ocean circulation in this century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change in predictability of monthly mean temperature in a future climate is quantified based on the Community Climate System Model, version 4. According to this model, the North Atlantic overtakes the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the dominant area of seasonal predictability by 2095. This change arises partly because ENSO becomes less variable and partly because the ENSO teleconnection pattern expands into the Atlantic. Over land, the largest change in temperature predictability occurs in the tropics and is predominantly due to a decrease in ENSO variability. The southern peninsula of Africa and northeast South America are predicted to experience significant drying in a future climate, which decreases the effective heat capacity and memory, and hence increases variance independently of ENSO changes. Extratropical land areas experience enhanced precipitation in a future climate, which decreases temperature variance by the same mechanism. Finally, the model predicts that surface temperatures near the poles will become more predictable and less variable in a future climate, primarily because melting sea ice exposes the underlying sea surface temperature, which is more predictable owing to its longer time scale. Some of these results, especially the change in ENSO variance, are known to be model dependent. This paper also advances the use of information theory to quantify predictability, including 1) deriving a quantitative relation between predictability of the first and second kinds; 2) showing how differences in predictability can be decomposed in two dramatically different ways, facilitating physical interpretation; and 3) proposing a sample estimate of mutual information whose significance can be tested using standard techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early to mid-Holocene has long been recognised as a period of wetter climate with widespread lacustrine development and vegetation expansion throughout south-east Arabia. Recent palaeoclimate data has, however, transformed our understanding of the Holocene Pluvial Phase ( HPP) and evidence presented in this paper demonstrates that climate was neither homogeneous during the period, nor were shifts between pluvial and arid episodes synchronous across the region. This dynamic setting provided the backdrop for human expansion during the Neolithic, and in turn raises important questions about the interactions between these populations and the natural environment in south-east Arabia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is a review of studies of abrupt climate changes (ACCs) during the Holocene published during the past ten years. North Atlantic cold events are indicators of ACCs. As indicated by North Atlantic ice-rafted debris (IRD), there were nine confirmed cold events during the Holocene, occurring at 11.1 kyr, 10.3 kyr, 9.4 kyr, 8.1 kyr, 5.9 kyr, 4.2 kyr, 2.8 kyr, 1.4 kyr, and 0.4 kyr respectively according to most representative results from Bond et al. (1997). However, the identification of chronology has been made with some uncertainties. Considerable climatic proxy data have shown that, during the cold events, substantial climate abnormalities have occurred widely across the globe, particularly in the areas surrounding the North Atlantic. These abnormalities were in the form of high-latitude cold in the both hemispheres, expansion of the Westerlies to low latitudes, drought in the monsoon regions, recession of summer monsoons, and intensification of the winter monsoons. Studies have indicated that the four ACCs occurring in the early Holocene may be related to freshwater pulses from ice melting in the northern part of the North Atlantic, and the other five ACCs that occurred during the middle and late Holocene may be related to the decreased solar activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This literature review was built upon recently published articles on Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) of agricultural biogas plants, to: enhance understanding of the relevant literature in the field and the related question by readers worldwide. It was designed to highlight methodological issues and impact indicators, which best represent this research field; consequently, they should be considered in performing environmental assessments of agro-biogas derived energy systems. The literature review highlighted the wide variability of environmental results due to the ways the feedstock mixtures were produced, managed, and supplied; and due to the regions in which the anaerobic digesters were located and operated. Differences were found to be related to the aim and function of the study and to the methodological approach used, especially for the development of the environmental impact assessments. Other differences resulted from the ways the energy produced was utilised, whether it was used as an input to the natural gas national grid, and/or if it was used within the production system. The authors of this review concluded that, although much progress has been made, many unsolved challenges and methodological choices must be addressed to further improve the robustness of LCA in relation to AD and to related approaches. Highlights • The study reports upon results from a comprehensive literature review. • The field investigated is that of biogas derived energy. • Just papers dealing with Life Cycle Assessments were reviewed. • Attention was focussed upon 100-year global warming potential. • The review highlighted wide variability in the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Recent studies propose that different dynamical systems, such as climate, ecological and financial systems, among others, present critical transition points named to as tipping points (TPs). Climate TPs can severely affect millions of lives on Earth so that an active scientific community is working on finding early warning signals. This paper deals with the development of a time series segmentation algorithm for paleoclimate data in order to find segments sharing common statistical patterns. The proposed algorithm uses a clustering-based approach for evaluating the solutions and six statistical features, most of which have been previously considered in the detection of early warning signals in paleoclimate TPs. Due to the limitations of classical statistical methods, we propose the use of a genetic algorithm to automatically segment the series, together with a method to compare the segmentations. The final segments provided by the algorithm are used to construct a prediction model, whose promising results show the importance of segmentation for improving the understanding of a time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The effects of climate changes on biotic expansion or divergence is a widely debated topic. This discussion is particularly relevant for northern Amazonia where patches of open vegetation environments that harbor high endemic and specialized species are present in a matrix of tall closed canopy forest. This paper presents the depositional chronology and evolution of an 8.7-m thick stabilized fluvial and eolian sediment profile in a sandy plain substrate that underpins the largest open vegetation enclave in northern Amazonia. Three depositional units were identified using optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon ages coupled with grain size, magnetic susceptibility, and reflectance analyses. A lower unit of coarse fluvial silt deposited between 53 and 28 ka is overlain unconformably by a 5-m thick middle unit of fine eolian sand deposited at high accumulation rates between the Last Glacial Maximum (23–19 ka) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 18.1–14.7 ka) when persistent and long-lasting shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the Southern Hemisphere promoted dry and windy conditions in northern South America. An upper ~2-m thick unit was deposited when the climate became wetter after HS1, promoting the formation of soils that support open vegetation habitats. This study indicates that abrupt millennial-scale climate events can induce significant changes in the Amazonian landscape, which in turn play an essential role in the distribution and diversification of specialized biota. Highlights • An open vegetation habitat in northern Amazon formed after abrupt climate events. • Persistent southern shifts of the ITCZ during the LGM and HS1 favored dune-building. • Dunes underpin white sand vegetation and cerrado habitats which harbor endemic species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sensitivity of alpine treeline ecotone to climate change and upward shift of plants due to warming have been reported from many parts of the globe. However, such research in the climate sensitive western Himalaya is still in infancy due to paucity of past climatic and vegetation distribution data to detect the change. In this paper we determined the expansion of Rhododendron campanulatum krummholz using seedling population and growth characteristics along an altitudinal transect rummimg from the upper forest limit to treeline ecotone and beyond it in Tungnath (i.e., 3242 m asl), Uttarakhand. In the studied transect (altitudinal gradient of 3511-3665 m asl) in 2017, a total of 17 trees and 36 seedlings of R. campanulatum were found growing. Almost half of the trees were devoid of any seedlings around their canopies. Height and circumference at collar height of both the adults and seedlings were positively correlated (P < 0.05). Taking the mean distance of seedlings from the mother tree (2.8 m; range = 0.50-4.72 m) and mean age of the seedlings (2-9 yrs; mean = 3.9 yr; reckoned by the number of internodes) the rate of expansion of R. campanulatum population was computed about 1.4 m yr-1 Occurrence of mature individuals at the mountain top without any seedlings indicates that as no space left for upward movement of plants, the interspaces between the krummholz are being filled by the regenerating individuals. This may leave little grazing grounds for the migratory livestock and change ecosystem properties. It may be further pointed out that due to rise in atmospheric temperature (@ 0.11 °C yr-1 in the past two decades) and continued biotic stress of grazing and tree lopping, R. campanulatum, a non-palatable species of wider niche width might preponderate at the expense of herbs and other treeline species in future and may bring out compositional changes in treeline vegetation and carbon storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lorenzo, M. N., Taboada, J. J., and Iglesias, I. 2009. Sensitivity of thermohaline circulation to decadal and multidecadal variability. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1439–1447.In this paper, stochastic freshwater inputs with different variabilities are introduced into an Earth Model of Intermediate Complexity to study their effect on the behaviour of the thermohaline circulation (THC). The variability in the stochastic signal was set to be either decadal or multidecadal (70 years), based on intensity modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The results demonstrate a weakening of the THC in both the decadal and the multidecadal cases. This weakening results in a reduction in air surface temperature, mainly in the North Atlantic. Moreover, the 500-mb stream function also weakens. This causes lower rainfall in Western Europe, except in the areas most influenced by the Gulf Stream. Sea surface temperature is reduced significantly in the area around Greenland, whereas sea surface salinity is reduced around Greenland and in the Gulf Stream, but increased in the Labrador Sea and in Hudson Strait. The latter effects are more marked in the case where the variability of the inputs is multidecadal. The main implication of these results is that the natural decadal or multidecadal variability in freshwater inputs could have noticeable effects on the fate of the THC, which may be superimposed on the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: On the basis of scour marks and ice-rafted debris found on the Northwind Ridge, northwestern Alaskan coast and Chukchi Shelf (and Cap and Borderland), and on the basis of the earlier ideas presented by De Boer and Nof (2004, DN hereafter), it has been hypothesized that icebergs created a temporary dam at the mouth of the Bering Strait (BST). This article describes an examination of this concept in the laboratory. At the beginning of the Holocene, approximately 11,000 years before present (11kyrBP), both oceanic and atmospheric paleo-temperatures increased abruptly. DN suggested that, with an open BST and no-convection in the North Atlantic, the global wind field would force water to flow from the Arctic to the Pacific (contrary to modern day configuration). We propose here and in a companion paper that the opening of the BST and the initiation of this negative flow are responsible for the abrupt increase in temperature. Further, we propose that the abruptness with which this event occurred, was due to the breakup of a temporary iceberg dam at the mouth of the BST 11kyrBP. (The dam was already 15m above the BST sill at that time.) This breakup allowed the freshwater anomalies, capping the convection area in the North Atlantic, to be flushed (out of the Atlantic) through the Arctic and BS into the North Pacific. Using a simple laboratory box model, this temporary damming and release of icebergs is recreated. Results show the stability of the dam to be dependent on the rate of sea-level rise, which at 1cm/yr should be sufficiently slow to allow a temporary dam to exist for thousands of years. Sea ice probably fused icebergs together, and through ridging could have created a 15m ice wall, which broke up 11kyrBP. On breaking (of the ice wall), approximately 3.5Sv of water would have flushed into the North Pacific, implying a flood lasting for approximately 3 years. This was followed by a reduced flow of 2.2Sv lasting 440 years or less (until the low salinity water which prevented convection in the Atlantic during the Younger Dryas was flushed out and the convection re-started). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Any discussion of the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures should take into consideration the full range of possible climate change outcomes, including impacts that remain highly uncertain, like surprises and other climate irreversibilities. Real-world coupling between complex systems can cause them to exhibit new collective behaviours that are not clearly demonstrable by models that do not include such coupling. Through examples from ocean circulation and atmosphere–biosphere interactions, this paper demonstrates that external forcings such as increases in GHG concentrations can push complex systems from one equilibrium state to another, with non-linear abrupt change as a possible consequence. Furthermore, the harder and faster a system is perturbed, the higher the likelihood of such surprises—a conclusion that has significant bearing on the assessment of the potential benefits of the timing and stringency of GHG abatement measures. The paper concludes with a perspective on how to better incorporate uncertainty and surprise into integrated assessment models of climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A detailed study of the Goniopora reef profile at Dengloujiao, Xuwen County, Leizhou Peninsula, the northern coast of the South China Sea suggests that a series of high-frequency, large-amplitude and abrupt cold events occurred during the Holocene Hypsithermal, an unusual phenomenon termed “Leizhou Events” in this paper. This period (corresponding to 14C age of 6.2-6.7 kaBP or calendar age of 6.7-7.2 kaBP), when the climatic conditions were ideal for coral reefs to develop, can be divided into at least nine stages. Each stage (or called a “climate optimum”), lasting about 20 to 50 a, was terminated by an abrupt cold nap and (or) a sea-level lowering event in winter, leading to widespread emergence and death of the Goniopora corals, and growth discontinuities on the coral surface. Such a cyclic process resulted in the creation of a >4m thick Goniopora reef flat. During this period, the crust subsided periodically but the sea level was rising. The reef profile provides valuable archives for the study of decadal-scale mid-Holocene climatic oscillations in the tropical area of South China. Our results provide new evidence for high-frequency climate instability in the Holocene Hypsithermal, and challenge the traditional understanding of Holocene climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a definition of bifurcation-type abrupt changes based on the bifurcation features of Lorenz trajectories. These abrupt changes are the result of the transition behavior of dynamical system trajectories among different equilibrium regions. We demonstrate that these bifurcation-type jumps can better reflect the nature of abrupt change. In analyzing the features of Lorenz equation trajectories, a dynamical method for detecting bifurcation-type abrupt changes is presented. A numerical solution of the Lorenz equation is adopted, using a curve integral or vector product to construct a time series of positive and negative values. Changes in the sign of this time series accurately determine whether the trajectory is in the right or left equilibrium region, and the points at which the time series is equal to zero are the times at which the trajectory jumps between different equilibrium regions, that is, the occurrence times of bifurcation-type abrupt changes. This method is completely dependent on the dynamical characteristics of the system. A theoretical approach for detecting abrupt climate changes based on the dynamical characteristics of the atmospheric model is described. Compared with the original method of identifying abrupt climate changes, this method has dynamic significance and can detect abrupt changes in multi-dimensional time series. Although this method can be applied theoretically, applications to real atmospheric data first require the data to be smoothed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We examine major reorganizations of the terrestrial ecosystem around Mono Lake, California during the last deglacial period from 16,000– 9,000 cal yr BP using pollen, microcharcoal, and coprophilous fungal spores (Sporormiella) from a deep-water sediment core. The pollen results record the assemblage, decline, and replacement of a mixed wooded community of Sierran and Great Basin taxa with Alkali Sink and Sagebrush Steppe biomes around Mono Lake. In particular, the enigmatic presence of Sequoiadendron-type pollen and its extirpation during the early Holocene hint at substantial biogeographic reorganizations on the Sierran-Great Basin ecotone during deglaciation. Rapid regional hydroclimate changes produced structural alterations in pine–juniper woodlands facilitated by increases in wildfires at 14,800 cal yr BP, 13,900 cal yr BP, and 12,800 cal yr BP. The rapid canopy changes altered the availability of herbaceous understory plants, likely putting pressure on megafauna populations, which declined in a stepwise fashion at 15,000 cal yr BP and 12,700 cal yr BP before final extirpation from Mono Basin at 11,500 cal yr BP. However, wooded vegetation communities overall remained resistant to abrupt hydroclimate changes during the late Pleistocene; instead, they gradually declined and were replaced by Alkali Sink communities in the lowlands as temperature increased into the Early Holocene, and Mono Lake regressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional typical meteorological year (TMY) based on continuous-year original meteorological records without considering abrupt climate changes (ACC) may not be able to represent a real "typical" climate properly. Consequently, building performance analyses and simulations based on TMY may be not accurate. Current research rarely tackles this issue in TMY development. This paper presents an innovative TMY development with the consideration of ACC in the original meteorological records. It is based on the Chinese standard weather database method (CSWD) with the meteorological records of six Chinese cities in different climate zones. It applies the Moving t-test method to identify and exclude ACC points and to refine the timescales for TMY development. It also depicts the development of individual typical meteorological months again with the ACC impact to improve the accuracy of TMY. The method has been verified in several building energy consumption and thermal comfort analyses. The results demonstrate that the analysis based on the new TMY climate datasets when considering ACC will end up with less energy consumption and better thermal performance compared to the analyses based on the conversion dataset without considering ACC. This experimental research will refine TMY development, and further improve building energy performance analysis and design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a paper recently published in this journal, Martin B. Sweatman and Dimitrios Tsikritsis from the University of Edinburgh (School of Engineering) have suggested an interpretation for the early Neolithic monumental enclosures at Göbekli Tepe as space observatories and the site's complex iconography the commemoration of a catastrophic astronomical event ('Younger Dryas Comet Impact'). As the archaeologists excavating this site, we would like to comment on a few points that we feel require consideration in this discussion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period paleorecords show large amplitude changes in the dust cycle. We use Earth System model simulations to evaluate processes operating across these events. Idealized Heinrich stadial‐like simulations show a southwards migration of tropical rainfall that dries the Sahel and reduces wet deposition causing a widespread enhancement of tropical dust loading. However, several discrepancies with marine core dust deposition reconstructions are evident. Simulations with a more limited freshwater forcing (0.4 Sv instead of 1.0 Sv) and weaker cooling over the North Atlantic (less than 3°C) show a switch in sign of the stadial dust deposition anomaly in several regions, improving agreement with paleorecords. The simulated dust cycle therefore displays in places a non‐linear response to abrupt change. The global‐mean stadial dust radiative forcing in the more realistic simulations is around −0.2 to −0.6 W m−2 and so could represent an amplifying feedback during these events. Plain Language Summary: Mineral dust in the atmosphere is mostly sourced from arid regions like the Sahara desert. The amount and geographical spread of this dust in the atmosphere is sensitive to environmental conditions such as drought. Paleoclimate records show that rapid cooling events centered on the North Atlantic during the last ice‐age also saw large increases in the rate of dust deposited over the ocean. Earth System models are a computational tool that can be used to understand the links between climate and the dust cycle. Using a series of such simulations we found that abrupt cooling events in the North Atlantic can lead to a massive increase in dust over the equatorial (tropical) regions. However, the model's response is in many places non‐linear, meaning that the change in dust is very sensitive to the magnitude of the climate changes occurring. This non‐linearity is mostly due to interactions between changes in the water cycle and the dust. We show that a less severe cooling produces a more realistic dust response when evaluated against paleo‐dust records. Since dust scatters incoming sunlight, increased atmospheric dust during these events may have amplified and even extended the cold phases. Key Points: Freshwater hosing forcing increases tropical dust loading in Earth System model simulations of the last glacial maximumSimulated response is non‐linear with forcing in some regions, particularly North AfricaWeaker events improve agreement with data and emitted dust produces a self‐amplifying feedback [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We combine our ice-sheet and climate models to formulate a deductive theory of abrupt climate changes pertaining to Heinrich/Dansgaard–Oeschger (H/DO) cycles and the last deglaciation punctuated by the Younger Dryas (YD). Since they are all accompanied by ice-rafted debris, we posit their common origin in the calving of the ice sheet due to a thermal switch at its bed, which naturally endows abruptness to these climate signals of the millennial timescale characteristics of the ice-mass balance. To distinguish the H/DO cycles, we differentiate the thermal triggers by geothermal-heat/surface-melt in the calving of inland/coastal ice, which provide their respective freshwater sources. Since surface-melt requires post-H warmth during the glacial, but is already operative in the Holocene, the DO cycles are encased within the H cycle during the glacial, but self-sustaining in the Holocene. They otherwise share the same time signature, thus resolving this seeming puzzle of commonality without invoking unknown climate forcing. The DO cycles transcend deglaciation to produce the observed sequence, but the calving-induced freshwater flux needs to be boosted by the rerouting of continental meltwater to cause YD. We discern a key process of an eddying ocean in its millennial adjustment toward maximum entropy production (MEP), which would melt the H-induced sea ice to cause an abrupt post-H warming followed by a gradual cooling that anchors the DO cycles to form the hierarchical Bond cycle. Since the modelled anatomies resemble the observed ones, our theory may provide a robust and unified account of abrupt climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gullies that terminate at a vertical-wall are ubiquitous throughout arid and semiarid regions. Multi-year assessments of gully evolution and headcut advance are typically accomplished using traditional ground surveys and aerial photographs, with much recent research focused on integrating data collected at very high spatial resolutions using new techniques such as aerial surveys with blimps or kites and ground surveys with LiDar scanners. However, knowledge of specific processes that drive headcut advance is limited due to inadequate observation and documentation of flash floods and subsequent erosion that can occur at temporal resolutions not captured through repeat surveys. This paper presents a method for using very-high temporal resolution ground-based time-lapse photography to capture short-duration flash floods and gully head evolution in response. In 2004, a base level controlling concrete weir was removed from the outlet of a 1.29 ha semiarid headwater drainage on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southeastern Arizona, USA. During the ten year period from 2004 to 2014 the headcut migrated upchannel a total of 14.5 m reducing the contributing area at the headwall by 9.5%. Beginning in July 2012, time-lapse photography was employed to observe event scale channel evolution dynamics. The most frequent erosion processes observed during three seasons of time-lapse photography were plunge pool erosion and mass wasting through sidewall or channel headwall slumping that occurred during summer months. Geomorphic change during the ten year period was dominated by a single piping event in August 2014 that advanced the channel head 7.4 m (51% of the overall advance) and removed 11.3 m 3 of sediment. High temporal resolution time-lapse photography was critical for identifying subsurface erosion processes, in the absence of time-lapse images piping would not have been identified as an erosion mechanism responsible for advancing the gully headwall at this site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan (HKHT) regions are crucial indicators for the combined impacts of regional climate change and resultant glacier retreat. However, they lack long-term systematic monitoring and thus their responses to recent climatic change still remain only partially understood. This study investigated lake extent fluctuations in the HKHT regions over the past 40 years using Landsat (MSS/TM/ETM+/OLI) images obtained from the 1970s to 2014. Influenced by different regional atmospheric circulation systems, our results show that lake changing patterns are distinct from region to region, with the most intensive lake shrinking observed in northeastern HKHT (HKHT Interior, Tarim, Yellow, Yangtze), while the most extensive expansion was observed in the western and southwestern HKHT (Amu Darya, Ganges Indus and Brahmaputra), largely caused by the proliferation of small lakes in high-altitude regions during 1970s–1995. In the past 20 years, extensive lake expansions (~39.6% in area and ~119.1% in quantity) were observed in all HKHT regions. Climate change, especially precipitation change, is the major driving force to the changing dynamics of the lake fluctuations; however, effects from the glacier melting were also significant, which contributed approximately 31.9–40.5%, 16.5–39.3%, 12.8–29.0%, and 3.3–6.1% of runoff to lakes in the headwaters of the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, and Ganges, respectively. We consider that the findings in this paper could have both immediate and long-term implications for dealing with water-related hazards, controlling glacial lake outburst floods, and securing water resources in the HKHT regions, which contain the headwater sources for some of the largest rivers in Asia that sustain 1.3 billion people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present new high‐resolution pollen records combined with palaeoceanographic proxies from the same samples in deep‐sea cores SHAK06‐5K and MD01‐2444 on the southwestern Iberian Margin, documenting regional vegetation responses to orbital and millennial‐scale climate changes over the last 28 ka. The chronology of these records is based on high‐resolution radiocarbon dates of monospecific samples of the planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides, measured from SHAK06‐5K and MD01‐2444 and aligned using an automated stratigraphical alignment method. Changes in temperate and steppe vegetation during Marine Isotope Stage 2 are closely coupled with sea surface temperature (SST) and global ice‐volume changes. The peak expansion of thermophilous woodland between ~10.1 and 8.4 cal ka bp lags behind the boreal summer insolation maximum by ~2 ka, possibly arising from residual high‐latitude ice‐sheets into the Holocene. Rapid changes in pollen percentages are coeval with abrupt transitions in SSTs, precipitation and winter temperature at the onset and end of Heinrich Stadial 2, the ice‐rafted debris event and end of Heinrich Stadial 1, and the onset of the Younger Dryas, suggesting extrinsically forced southwestern Iberian ecosystem changes by abrupt North Atlantic climate events. In contrast, the abrupt decline in thermophilous elements at ~7.8 cal ka bp indicates an intrinsically mediated abrupt vegetation response to the gradually declining boreal insolation, potentially resulting from the crossing of a seasonality of precipitation threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that is currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite different methodologies, of 12 extreme events that occurred in 2012. In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events, the high temperatures in the United States, the record low levels of Arctic sea ice, and the heavy rain in northern Europe and eastern Australia, provide an opportunity to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies. The differences also provide insights into the structural uncertainty of event attribution, that is, the uncertainty that arises directly from the differences in analysis methodology. In these cases, there was considerable agreement between the different assessments of the same event. However, different events had very different causes. Approximately half the analyses found some evidence that anthropogenically caused climate change was a contributing factor to the extreme event examined, though the effects of natural fluctuations of weather and climate on the evolution of many of the extreme events played key roles as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the possible underlying systemic context(s) for spurred flake gravers and eyed bone needles recovered from Paleoindian sites in North America. The idea that spurred flake gravers and eyed bone needles were closely associated is not new. Archaeologists in both Eurasia and North America have also proposed that eyed bone and ivory needles were used for manufacturing tailored skin clothing. It is suggested here that spurred flake gravers and eyed bone needles may, in fact, be the material correlates of critical non-subsistence related work carried out by women to meet the challenges of very severe winters and cold stress of the Younger Dryas Cold Event (YDCE) between 12,900-11,600 cal. B.P. It is argued here that such expediently produced flake implements and curated sewing technology including eyed needles ultimately reflect the significant ecological bottleneck(s) posed by the YDCE for Paleoindian populations. Metric attributes of both spurred flake gravers and eyed bone needles, their spatial co-occurrence in archaeological contexts, and their temporal co-occurrence within the YDCE lend empirical support for this causal argument. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The abrupt climate shifts identified in Greenland ice cores transformed understanding of the climate system. Although primarily studied in the paleoclimate record, abrupt climate change induced by greenhouse gas rise poses a serious threat to modern humans and ecosystems. We present the first ultra-high-resolution view (hundreds of samples per year) of the abrupt onset (within 1 year) of the current interglacial (warm) climate retrieved from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) ice core archive. This abrupt onset is manifested by a marked reduction in storm event frequency and increase in the length of the summer season around Greenland. We apply this metric to the current rapid climatic amelioration in the Arctic as a precursor for future abrupt climate change events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1950s, divergence problems have reduced the temporal stability of tree rings in response to climate, shaken the foundations of dendroclimatology, and affected the reliability of reconstructed models based on tree rings and the accuracy of historical climate series. Therefore, it is of great importance to investigate divergence problems, which will help us to better understand the growth strategies of trees in response to climate warming and provide a scientific basis for accurate climate reconstruction and simulation of forest dynamics. This paper aims to elucidate the mechanism of divergent growth of Picea schrenkiana at high altitudes in the western Tianshan from three aspects: variations in atmospheric circulation, changes in climatic factors, and the coping strategy of trees with climate change. High spring temperatures accelerate the melting of snow cover. Large amounts of snowmelt initially replenish soil water, leading to the rapid growth of trees, but later, the continuous consumption of snowmelt reduces the available water capacity of soil, resulting in water stress on trees. The pattern of trees’ response to changes in climate ranges from a pure temperature limitation to a collaborative temperature–moisture limitation. Since the 1990s, the weakening of the westerly circulation and the North Atlantic Oscillation has reduced their impacts on the hydroclimate in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia. The combination of heat-induced water deficit and a long-term weakening trend in atmospheric circulation has slowed tree growth over the past decade.

The article explores that author said that I was fortunate to be among the younger scholars Marilyn Gaull encouraged and counseled. Late at night, I would head to my study to solicit her opinion about this or that, seek inspiration when my confidence flagged, chew fat, complain, or just tell her about what I was reading.Her responses were unfailingly generous and fully alive. Those who knew her will recognize what I mean by the last phrase.

Climatic changes threaten freshwater resources and aquatic ecosystem health in the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), which has important consequences for millions of people and the world's fifth largest economy. However, the timing and magnitude of ecological changes driven by hydroclimate oscillations remain poorly understood in California's headwater region. Here, we develop a precisely dated, annually to decadally resolved lake sediment record of ecological change from the eastern Sierra Nevada that spans the last three millennia. Diatom paleoecology reveals a detailed history of abrupt limnologic transitions, best explained by modifications in water column stratification, mixing, and nutrient status in response to changing seasonality. Seasonally stratified conditions were registered during the Late Holocene Dry Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly, illustrating the sensitivity of fossil diatoms to well‐known periods of drought. Yet the most striking feature of the record is the uniqueness of ~1840–2016 CE: a period of singularly strong water column stratification, increased algal diversity, and reduced diatom productivity consistent with unprecedented "hot droughts." The data demonstrate that hot–dry conditions of the Industrial Era altered lake state to conditions unseen in the past ~3180 years, and suggest that regional trends identified by historical monitoring began far earlier than previously recognized. Our record illustrates the profound influence of anthropogenic climate warming on high‐elevation lakes and the ecosystem services they provide in the Sierra Nevada, which hold implications for water quality and availability in California. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many scientists fear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have set the Earth on a path of significant, possibly catastrophic, changes. This includes the possibility of exceeding particular thresholds or tipping points in the climate system. In response, governments have proposed emissions reduction targets, but no agreement has been reached. These facts have led some scientists and economists to suggest research into climate engineering. In this paper, we analyze the potential value of one climate engineering technology family, known as solar radiation management (SRM) to manage the risk of differing tipping-point scenarios. We find that adding SRM to a policy of emissions controls may be able to help manage the risk of climate tipping points and that its potential benefits are large. However, the technology does not exist and important indirect costs (e.g., change in precipitation) are not well understood. Thus, we conclude the SRM merits a serious research effort to better understand its efficiency and safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Although considerable progress towards reducing tropical climate biases in the tropical Pacific has been made in many current-generation of climate models over the past decades, reducing large biases and maintaining good agreement with the observations in the tropical Atlantic is still a major challenge and this deficiency may seriously degrade the credibility of the models in their simulation and projection of future climate change in the Atlantic sector. In this paper, we show that the bias in the eastern equatorial Atlantic has a major effect on sea-surface temperature (SST) response to a rapid change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). By comparing identical water hosing experiments conducted with two different coupled general circulation models, we dissect oceanic mechanisms underlying the difference in models'' SST response. The results show that the different SST response is plausibly attributed to systematic differences in the simulated tropical Atlantic ocean circulation. Therefore, in order to accurately simulate past abrupt climate changes and project future changes, the bias in climate models must be reduced. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Geoarchaeology is the application of geological and geomorphological techniques to archaeology and the study of the interactions of hominins with the natural environment at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Geoarchaeology in the UK over the last twenty years has flourished largely because it has gone beyond technological and scientific applications. Over the same period our ability to reconstruct the 3-dimensional stratigraphy of fluvial deposits and the matrix of fluvial sites has increased dramatically because of a number of technological advances. These have included the use of LiDAR (laser imaging) and radar to produce high-resolution digital surface models, the use of geophysics, particularly ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity, to produce sediment depth models, and the use of GIS and data visualisation techniques to manipulate and display the data. These techniques along with more systematic and detailed sedimentological recording of exposed sections have allowed the construction of more precise 3-dimensional (volumetric) models of the matrix of artefacts within fluvial deposits. Additionally a revolution in dating techniques, particularly direct sediment dating by luminescence methods, has enabled the creation of 4-dimensional models of the creation and preservation of these sites. These 4-dimensional models have the ability to provide far more information about the processes of site creation, preservation and even destruction, and also allow the integration of these processes with independent data sources concerning cultural evolution and climatic change. All improvements in the precision of dating fluvial deposits have archaeological importance in our need to translate events from a sequential or geological timeframe to human timescales. This allows geoarchaeology to make a more direct contribution to cultural history through the recognition of agency at the individual or group level. This data can then form a component of biocomplexity or agent-based modelling which is becoming increasingly used in the natural sciences, particularly ecology and geomorphology and which can be used to test scenarios including the impact on, and response of, hominins to abrupt or catastrophic environmental change. Whilst catastrophic events clearly represent the atypical they can be illuminating in revealing cognitive processes resulting in abandonment, coping, mitigation and innovation. These points are exemplified using two in-depth case studies: one from the Holocene geoarchaeological record of the River Trent in Central England and the other from the Palaeolithic record from rivers in South West Britain. In the former the interaction between climate change and human activity is illustrated at the year to century timescale whilst in the other the timescale is millennial. These case studies have deliberately been chosen to be as different as possible in temporal and spatial scale with the aim of examining the applicability of methodological and theoretical aspects of geoarchaeology. Lastly the paper considers the problem of scale in geoarchaeology and concludes it is process-dependency, which ultimately affects the questions we can ask, and that questions of human response to climate change are fundamentally a product of materiality and cognitive processes. This demands an in-depth contextual approach to such questions rather than database-driven assertions of causality. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

While paleoclimate records show that the Earth System is characterized by several different tipping points, their representation within Earth System models (ESMs) remains poorly constrained. This is because historical observations do not encompass variations large enough to provoke such regime changes, and paleoclimate conditions are rarely used to help develop and tune ESMs, which potentially ignores a rich source of information on abrupt climate change. A critical example is the early to mid-Holocene "greening" and subsequent rapid desertification of the Sahara, which most ESMs fail to reproduce, casting doubt on the representation of land-atmosphere coupling and monsoon dynamics. Here, we show that this greening and abrupt termination can be successfully simulated with one ESM after optimizing uncertain model components using both present-day observations and crucially mid-Holocene (6,000 y before present) reconstructions. The optimized model displays abrupt threshold behavior, which shows excellent agreement with long paleoclimate records that were not used in the original optimization. These results suggest that in order to realistically capture climate-system thresholds, ESMs first need to be conditioned with appropriate paleoclimate information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]