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Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing--similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ~30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ~70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ~43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constraining the past sea ice variability in the Nordic Seas is critical for a comprehensive understanding of the abrupt Dansgaard- Oeschger (D-O) climate changes during the last glacial. Here we present unprecedentedly detailed sea ice proxy evidence from two Norwegian Sea sediment cores and an East Greenland ice core to resolve and constrain sea ice variations during four D-O events between 32 and 41 ka. Our independent sea ice records consistently reveal a millennial-scale variability and threshold response between an extensive seasonal sea ice cover in the Nordic Seas during cold stadials and reduced seasonal sea ice conditions during warmer interstadials. They document substantial and rapid sea ice reductions that may have happened within 250 y or less, concomitant with reinvigoration of deep convection in the Nordic Seas and the abrupt warming transitions in Greenland. Our empirical evidence thus underpins the cardinal role of rapid sea ice decline and related feedbacks to trigger abrupt and large-amplitude climate change of the glacial D-O events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past provides evidence of abrupt climate shifts and changes in the frequency of climate and weather extremes. We explore the nonlinear response to orbital forcing and then consider climate millennial variability down to daily weather events. Orbital changes are translated into regional responses in temperature, where the precessional response is related to nonlinearities and seasonal biases in the system. We question regularities found in climate events by analyzing the distribution of interevent waiting times. Periodicities of about 900 and 1,150 yr are found in ice cores besides the prominent 1,500 yr cycle. However, the variability remains indistinguishable from a random process, suggesting that centennial‐to‐millennial variability is stochastic in nature. New numerical techniques are developed allowing for a high resolution in the dynamically relevant regions like coasts, major upwelling regions, and high latitudes. Using this model, we find a strong sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depending on where the deglacial meltwater is injected into. Meltwater into the Mississippi and near Labrador hardly affect the large‐scale ocean circulation, whereas subpolar hosing mimicking icebergs yields a quasi shutdown. The same multiscale approach is applied to radiocarbon simulations enabling a dynamical interpretation of marine sediment cores. Finally, abrupt climate events also have counterparts in the recent climate records, revealing a close link between climate variability, the statistics of North Atlantic weather patterns, and extreme events. Plain Language Summary: Predicting the future spread of possible climates, the risk of climate extremes and the risk of rapid transitions is of high socioeconomic relevance. The past provides evidence of abrupt climate change and the frequency of extremes. This allows to separate anthropogenic signals from natural climate variability. Earth system models applied both to past and future scenarios will enhance our ability to detect regime shifts which are necessary to potentially predict climate extremes and transitions. We consider the response of the system to regular orbital forcing and then focus on shorter time scales down to weather. The appearance of precession is linked to nonlinear responses of the climate system to external orbital forcing. Furthermore, we find that centennial‐to‐millennial variability is stochastic in nature. We also discuss recent developments of climate models with superior resolution in typical retrieval regions of paleoclimate records, such as continental margins and coasts. Using this model, we find a strong sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depending on where the deglacial meltwater is injected into. Meltwater into the Mississippi and near Labrador hardly affect the large‐scale ocean circulation, whereas subpolar hosing related to icebergs yields a quasi shutdown. Our multiscale approach is applied to radiocarbon simulations enabling a dynamical interpretation of marine sediment cores. Finally, we explore a close link between climate variability, the statistics of weather patterns, and extreme events. Key Points: Nonlinear response of the climate system to external orbital forcing yields responses in the precessional bandCentennial and millennial variability are stochastic in natureOcean and radiocarbon modeling with high resolution at the coasts and high latitudes provides a suitable framework for multi‐scale dynamicsThe past provides evidences of abrupt climate changes and weather extremes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Dansgaard‐Oeschger cycles of the last glacial period are attributed to changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation. An outstanding problem is whether these are driven by a self‐sustained oscillation of the Earth system, by stochastic perturbations in terms of freshwater discharges into the ocean or extremes in atmospheric dynamics, or by another driver. Their complex temporal pattern suggests that the transitions in between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) phases are noise induced and thus unpredictable. Here, evidence is presented that this is unlikely because the transitions can be predicted to a certain degree within a few hundred years after stadial onset from consistent trends in Greenland dust proxies. These trends could be a manifestation of the climate system reorganizing at a specific timescale. What physically determines these highly variable timescales remains unexplained. Nevertheless, constraining the dynamics underlying these abrupt climate changes is an important step to uncover their causes. Plain Language Summary: The Dansgaard‐Oeschger events of the last glacial period are the most significant abrupt, large‐scale climate changes known. Although they occurred during different climatic background conditions, they are invaluable for benchmarking climate models used to predict anthropogenic climate change and for better understanding tipping points. Changes in ocean circulation are believed to bring about the large temperature contrasts. Climate models can reproduce such changes, but it is not agreed on whether these should be driven by self‐sustained oscillations of the ocean, or excitations out of one climate regime to another by random perturbations of the atmosphere or ice sheets, among other things. Here, Greenland ice core data are used to constrain the scenarios. It is shown that the transitions can be predicted from gradual trends in dust records, which is in contrast to the latter hypothesis of random perturbations. Key Points: Greenland dust and calcium ice core records of the last glacial period are investigatedDansgaard‐Oeschger events are successfully predicted from trends and amplitudes of these proxiesDespite a complex temporal pattern, these abrupt climate transitions cannot be purely noise induced [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a definition of bifurcation-type abrupt changes based on the bifurcation features of Lorenz trajectories. These abrupt changes are the result of the transition behavior of dynamical system trajectories among different equilibrium regions. We demonstrate that these bifurcation-type jumps can better reflect the nature of abrupt change. In analyzing the features of Lorenz equation trajectories, a dynamical method for detecting bifurcation-type abrupt changes is presented. A numerical solution of the Lorenz equation is adopted, using a curve integral or vector product to construct a time series of positive and negative values. Changes in the sign of this time series accurately determine whether the trajectory is in the right or left equilibrium region, and the points at which the time series is equal to zero are the times at which the trajectory jumps between different equilibrium regions, that is, the occurrence times of bifurcation-type abrupt changes. This method is completely dependent on the dynamical characteristics of the system. A theoretical approach for detecting abrupt climate changes based on the dynamical characteristics of the atmospheric model is described. Compared with the original method of identifying abrupt climate changes, this method has dynamic significance and can detect abrupt changes in multi-dimensional time series. Although this method can be applied theoretically, applications to real atmospheric data first require the data to be smoothed.

Throughout the last glacial cycle millennial timescale variations in atmospheric CO2 occurred in parallel with perturbations in deep ocean circulation, which were themselves reflected by observable changes in surface conditions across the North Atlantic region. Here we use continuous proxy records to argue that an equivalent relationship has held throughout the last 800 kyr, that is, since before the first occurrence of Heinrich events (strictly defined). Our results highlight the importance of internal climate dynamics in amplifying external (insolation) forcing on the climate system to produce the large amplitude of glacial terminations (deglaciations) during the middle to late Pleistocene. We show that terminations are characterized by an interval of intense ice rafting followed by a subsequent and abrupt shift to anomalously warm surface conditions (with respect to the more gradually evolving background state), which we interpret to reflect an abrupt recovery of deep ocean circulation in the Atlantic. According to our synthesis, this is followed by a period of enhanced (or at least anomalous) overturning lasting thousands of years until equilibrium interglacial conditions are attained and during which atmospheric CO2 is likely to decrease. Our results therefore suggest that deglacial oscillations in ocean circulation can have a lasting influence on early interglacial climate and highlight the transient nature of atmospheric CO2 overshoots associated with the onset of some previous interglacials. Accordingly, we suggest that these intervals should be considered as a part of the deglacial process. This has implications for studies concerned with the evolution of atmospheric CO2 during interglacial periods including the Holocene. Key Points: The relationship between changes in atmospheric CO2 and surface conditions across the NE Atlantic has been consistent over the past 800 kyrThe ocean/atmosphere system may take thousands of years to reequilibrate following abrupt deglacial oscillations in ocean circulationInclusion of nonequilibrium intervals within interglacial comparisons may lead to artifacts in calculated trends in, for example, atmospheric CO2 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate system occasionally experiences an abrupt change. However, it is very difficult to predict this change at present. Fortunately, some generic properties have been revealed before several different types of dynamical system near their own critical thresholds. These properties provide a possible way to give an early warning for an impending abrupt climate change. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the applicability of an early warning indicator of an abrupt change. On the basis of several simple fold models, we have systematically investigated the performance of the kurtosis coefficient as an early warning signal for an upcoming abrupt climate change. The testing results indicate that the kurtosis coefficient is a reliable warning indicator in most of cases whether a critical control parameter or the strength of an external forcing approaches a critical point. However, the strong noise can greatly shorten the effective warning time, and also can result in the reduction of the magnitude of a kurtosis coefficient when a dynamical system approaches its critical threshold. The missing data has almost no effect on the kurtosis coefficient in all of tests, even it is true when the missing data accounts for 20% of the total sample. We also found that the kurtosis coefficient does not work in some cases, which means that the kurtosis coefficient is not a universal early warning signal for an upcoming abrupt change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most pronounced mode of climate variability during the last glacial period are the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events. There is no consensus of the underlying dynamical mechanism of these abrupt climate changes and they are elusive in most simulations of state-of-the-art coupled climate models. There has been significant debate over whether the climate system is exhibiting self-sustained oscillations with vastly varying periods across these events, or rather noise-induced jumps in between two quasi-stable regimes. In previous studies, statistical model comparison has been employed to the NGRIP ice core record from Greenland in order to compare different classes of stochastic dynamical systems, representing different dynamical paradigms. Such model comparison studies typically rely on accurately reproducing the observed records. We aim to avoid this due to the large amount of stochasticity and uncertainty both on long and short time scales in the record. Instead, we focus on the most important qualitative features of the data, as captured by summary statistics. These are computed from the distributions of waiting times in between events and residence times in warm and cold regimes, as well as the stationary density and the autocorrelation function. We perform Bayesian inference and model comparison experiments based solely on these summary statistics via Approximate Bayesian Computation. This yields an alternative approach to existing studies that helps to reconcile and synthesize insights from Bayesian model comparison and qualitative statistical analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High‐latitude Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period was characterized by a series of abrupt climate changes, known as Dansgaard‐Oeschger events, which were recorded in Greenland ice cores as shifts in the oxygen isotopic composition of the ice. These shifts in inferred Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude temperature have been linked to changes in Atlantic meridional overturning strength. The response of ocean overturning circulation to forcing is nonlinear and a hierarchy of models have suggested that it may exist in multiple steady state configurations. Here, we use a time‐dependent coarse‐resolution isopycnal model with four density classes and two basins, linked by a Southern Ocean to explore overturning states and their stability to changes in external parameters. The model exhibits hysteresis in both the steady state stratification and overturning strength as a function of the magnitude of North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Hysteresis occurs as a result of two nonlinearities in the model—the surface buoyancy distribution in the Southern Ocean and the vertical diffusivity profile in the Atlantic and Indo‐Pacific basins. We construct a metric to assess circulation configuration in the model, motivated by observations from the Last Glacial Maximum, which show a different circulation structure from the modern. We find that circulation configuration is primarily determined by North Atlantic Deep Water density. The model results are used to suggest how ocean conditions may have influenced the pattern of Dansgaard‐Oeschger events across the last glacial cycle. Key Points: Southern Ocean buoyancy forcing and vertical diffusivity distribution may give rise to hysteresis in the overturning circulationHysteresis curves are sensitive to NADW density and Southern Ocean sea ice extentCirculation configuration ("figure‐eight" versus "two‐cell") is primarily sensitive to NADW density [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The storage of anomalous heat and carbon in the Southern Ocean in response to increasing greenhouse gases greatly mitigates atmospheric warming and exerts a large impact on the marine ecosystem. However, the mechanisms driving the ocean storage patterns are uncertain. Here using recent hydrographic observations, we compare for the first time the spatial patterns of heat and carbon storage, which show substantial differences in the Southern Ocean, in contrast with the conventional view of simple passive subduction into the thermocline. Using an eddy‐rich global climate model, we demonstrate that redistribution of the preindustrial temperature field is the dominant control on the heat storage pattern, whereas carbon storage largely results from passive transport of anthropogenic carbon uptake at the surface. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of realistic representation of wind and surface buoyancy flux in climate models to improve future projection of circulation change and thus heat and carbon storage. Key Points: Observed excess heat (Q′) and anthropogenic carbon storage in the Southern Ocean shows contrasting spatial patternsEddy‐resolving model reveals that circulation change controls Q′ storage; carbon storage anomaly (C′) behaves more like a passive tracerA responsive surface buoyancy flux results in a greater sensitivity of net circulation change in response to wind stress change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abrupt climate change may cause heat, drought, and flood disasters. In this study, we find that many climate factors [e.g., the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] show a decadal-scale abrupt change in the 1970s. To analyze this phenomenon thoroughly, a new method of pedigree clustering combined with phase-space analysis (PCPSA) is used to establish two-dimensional phase-space coordinate systems of EASM–AO, EASM–PDO, and AO–PDO and the three-dimensional phase-space coordinate system of EASM–AO–PDO. By using the PCPSA method, it is found that all of the phase-space coordinate systems have a significant abrupt change in the mid-1970s, with a transition period, and the fit to the abrupt change of the phase-space coordinate system is better than 80%, which indicates excellent fit. By analyzing the correlation of EASM, AO, and PDO with sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST), it is found that SLP has an obvious weakening trend in the high latitudes and an increasing trend in the tropics while SST has an increasing trend in most of the Southern Hemisphere waters and a minor weakening trend in the North Pacific Ocean waters between 30° and 40°N. Therefore, the abrupt climate change of the 1970s may well be a global abrupt change of the climatic system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional typical meteorological year (TMY) based on continuous-year original meteorological records without considering abrupt climate changes (ACC) may not be able to represent a real “typical” climate properly. Consequently, building performance analyses and simulations based on TMY may be not accurate. Current research rarely tackles this issue in TMY development. This paper presents an innovative TMY development with the consideration of ACC in the original meteorological records. It is based on the Chinese standard weather database method (CSWD) with the meteorological records of six Chinese cities in different climate zones. It applies the Moving t-test method to identify and exclude ACC points and to refine the timescales for TMY development. It also depicts the development of individual typical meteorological months again with the ACC impact to improve the accuracy of TMY. The method has been verified in several building energy consumption and thermal comfort analyses. The results demonstrate that the analysis based on the new TMY climate datasets when considering ACC will end up with less energy consumption and better thermal performance compared to the analyses based on the conversion dataset without considering ACC. This experimental research will refine TMY development, and further improve building energy performance analysis and design.

A distinct shift in δ18O, δ13C and trace element contents of the Père Noël (PN) stalagmite from southern Belgium revealed an abrupt climatic anomaly at 8.13 ± 0.03 ka BP (before present = before 1950 AD). This anomaly is characterized by a maximum drop in the δ18O (−1.4‰ compared the mean) between 8.13 and 8.10 ka BP (±0.03). This drop of δ18O coincides with a decrease in δ13C and trace element (Sr, Ba and Mg) concentrations suggesting drier conditions. Our precise chronology provides the timing of the outburst of proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway that caused the δ18O, δ13C and trace elemental anomalies at 8.13–8.10 ± 0.03 ka BP, which corresponds to the 8.2‐ka BP event. The PN stalagmite bears δ18O values in fluid inclusions that covary with the δ18O values in calcite, suggesting that the speleothem calcite δ18O primarily reflects variations in the rainfall δ18O. Comparison of the PN record with different marine and terrestrial archives during the 8.2‐ka BP event shows a good agreement in timing and duration, suggesting that the PN speleothem can be regarded as a valuable proxy to better understand the 8.2‐ka BP event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer rainfall anomalies have often posed a major water concern in China, and the variations and prediction of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events have been receiving increasing attention from researchers. Based on precipitation and atmospheric circulation indices in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and predictability of DWAA events were analyzed by calculating the dry-wet abrupt alternation index and selecting early warning signals. The results indicate that most long-cycle and short-cycle DWAA events, except in the period of May-June, are wet-to-dry (WTD) events and that the frequencies and intensities of WTD events have gradually decreased over time. The spatial distribution characteristics on the south shore of the Yangtze River are opposite to those on the north shore. Occurrences of DWAA events can be predicted to some extent by comparing the actual and critical values of select early warning signals. The results also indicate that the BP neural network model exhibits strong performance in simulating the occurrences of DWAA events and therefore may provide a useful reference for intraseasonal wet and dry management in the Yangtze River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonanalogous climates (NACs), climates without modern analogs on Earth, challenge our understanding of eco-evolutionary processes that shape global biodiversity, particularly because of their propensity to promote novel ecosystems. However, NAC studies are generally inadequate and partial. Specifically, systematic comparisons between the future and the past are generally lacking, and hydraulic NACs tend to be underemphasized. In the present study, by adopting a frequency distributionbased method that facilitates the procedures of contributions parsing and conducting multiple comparisons, we provide a global overview of multidimensional NACs for both the past and the future within a unified framework. We show that NACs are globally prevalent, covering roughly half of the land area across the time-periods under investigation, and have a high degree of spatial structure. Patterns of NACs differ dramatically between the past and the future. Hydraulic NACs are more complex both in spatial patterns and in major contributions of variables than are thermal NACs. However, hydraulic NACs are more predictable than originally thought. Generally, hydraulic NACs in the future (2100 AD) exhibit comparable predictability to thermal NACs in the last glacial maximum (LGM) (21k BP). Identifying these NAC patterns has potential implications on climate-adaptive managements and preparing in advance to possibly frequent novel ecosystems. However, a learning-fromthe- past strategy might be of limited utility for management under present circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1mm (8% of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbitrelated error of the interannual trend is 0.1mmyr-1 (27% of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10% of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10% of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1mmyr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10% of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the observed orbit-related errors are further investigated. The main contributors on all timescales are uncertainties in Earth's time-variable gravity field models and on annual to interannual timescales discrepancies of the tracking station subnetworks, i.e. satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We address the quantisation of a model that induces the Little Sibling of the Big Rip (LSBR) abrupt event, where the dark energy content is described by means of a phantom-like fluid or a phantom scalar field. The quantisation is done in the framework of the Wheeler-DeWitt (WDW) equation and imposing the DeWitt boundary condition; i.e., the wave function vanishes close to the abrupt event. We analyse the WDW equation within two descriptions: First, when the dark energy content is described with a perfect fluid. This leaves the problem with the scale factor as the single degree of freedom. Second, when the dark energy content is described with a phantom scalar field in such a way that an additional degree of freedom is incorporated. Here, we have applied the Born-Oppenheimer (BO) approximation in order to simplify the WDW equation. In all cases, the obtained wave function vanishes when the LSBR takes place, thus fulfilling the DeWitt boundary condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic undergoes an abrupt transition from the quasi-steady climate of winter to a period of rapid warming in spring. To explore the atmospheric dynamics of this transition, an extended simulation using a global atmospheric model driven by a fixed repeating annual cycle of sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover is analyzed. The model reproduces the timing, structure, and interannual variability of the observed spring onset, thus providing a platform for addressing its dynamics. It is found that atmospheric eddy heat fluxes across the Arctic boundary, highly variable in winter but much less so in spring, shape the transition and determine its timing. Together with the rapid springtime increase of solar heating, the decreased variability in dynamical heating creates the abrupt appearance of the spring transition. Perpetual season simulations for winter, early spring, and late spring further reveal the dynamics of seasonally varying dynamical heating. The eddy heat flux is less variable in spring than winter because the variance of the eddy meridional wind and the stationary wave in temperature, resulting from land-sea contrast, both weaken. Further analysis shows that the strong wintertime variance in meridional wind is associated with traveling planetary wavenumber 1, which amplifies when its phase corresponds to an east-west dipole spanning the Greenland Sea. In this configuration the transient wind-stationary thermal interaction releases zonal available potential energy into wavenumber 1. Thus the highly variable wintertime dynamical heating of the Arctic arises from a baroclinic mechanism, but one distinct from baroclinic instability or cyclogenesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the time scales of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropospheric circulation response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In response to an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2, the midlatitude jet stream and poleward edge of the Hadley circulation shift poleward on the time scale of the rising global-mean surface temperature during the summer and fall seasons but on a much more rapid time scale during the winter and spring seasons. The seasonally varying time scales of the SH circulation response are closely tied to the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere and, in particular, to temperatures in the SH polar lower stratosphere. During summer and fall, SH polar lower-stratospheric temperatures cool on the time scale of warming global surface temperatures, as the lifting of the tropopause height with tropospheric warming is associated with cooling at lower-stratospheric levels. However, during winter and spring, SH polar lower-stratospheric temperatures cool primarily from fast time-scale radiative processes, contributing to the faster time-scale circulation response during these seasons. The poleward edge of the SH subtropical dry zone shifts poleward on the time scale of the rising global-mean surface temperature during all seasons in response to an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. The dry zone edge initially follows the poleward shift in the Hadley cell edge but is then augmented by the action of eddy moisture fluxes in a warming climate. Consequently, with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, key features of the tropospheric circulation response could emerge sooner than features more closely tied to rising global temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A special class of a Gauss--Bonnet minimal power-law cosmology characterised by an effective timedependent scalar field potential is explored in this communication. Some new features related to the late-time cosmological dynamics are observed and discussed accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The forest-steppe ecotone in southern Siberia is highly sensitive to climate change; global warming is expected to push the ecotone northwards, at the same time resulting in degradation of the underlying permafrost. To gain a deeper understanding of long-term forest-steppe carbon dynamics, we use a highly resolved, multiproxy, palaeolimnological approach, based on sediment records from Lake Baikal. We reconstruct proxies that are relevant to understanding carbon dynamics including carbon mass accumulation rates ( CMAR; g C m−2 yr−1) and isotope composition of organic matter ( δ13 CTOC). Forest-steppe dynamics were reconstructed using pollen, and diatom records provided measures of primary production from near- and off-shore communities. We used a generalized additive model ( GAM) to identify significant change points in temporal series, and by applying generalized linear least-squares regression modelling to components of the multiproxy data, we address (1) What factors influence carbon dynamics during early Holocene warming and late Holocene cooling? (2) How did carbon dynamics respond to abrupt sub-Milankovitch scale events? and (3) What is the Holocene carbon storage budget for Lake Baikal. CMAR values range between 2.8 and 12.5 g C m−2 yr−1. Peak burial rates (and greatest variability) occurred during the early Holocene, associated with melting permafrost and retreating glaciers, while lowest burial rates occurred during the neoglacial. Significant shifts in carbon dynamics at 10.3, 4.1 and 2.8 kyr bp provide compelling evidence for the sensitivity of the region to sub-Milankovitch drivers of climate change. We estimate that 1.03 Pg C was buried in Lake Baikal sediments during the Holocene, almost one-quarter of which was buried during the early Holocene alone. Combined, our results highlight the importance of understanding the close linkages between carbon cycling and hydrological processes, not just temperatures, in southern Siberian environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a mountainous country, Nepal is most susceptible to precipitation extremes and related hazards, including severe floods, landslides and droughts that cause huge losses of life and property, impact the Himalayan environment, and hinder the socioeconomic development of the country. Given that the countrywide assessment of such extremes is still lacking, we present a comprehensive picture of prevailing precipitation extremes observed across Nepal. First, we present the spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) from 210 stations over the period of 1981-2010. Then, we analyze the temporal changes in the computed extremes from 76 stations, featuring long-term continuous records for the period of 1970-2012, by applying a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to identify the existence of a trend and Sen's slope method to calculate the true magnitude of this trend. Further, the local trends in precipitation extremes have been tested for their field significance over the distinct physio-geographical regions of Nepal, such as the lowlands, middle mountains and hills and high mountains in the west (WL, WM and WH, respectively), and likewise, in central (CL, CM and CH) and eastern (EL, EM and EH) Nepal. Our results suggest that the spatial patterns of high-intensity precipitation extremes are quite different to that of annual or monsoonal precipitation. Lowlands (Terai and Siwaliks) that feature relatively low precipitation and less wet days (rainy days) are exposed to high-intensity precipitation extremes. Our trend analysis suggests that the pre-monsoonal precipitation is significantly increasing over the lowlands and CH, while monsoonal precipitation is increasing inWMand CH and decreasing in CM, CL and EL. On the other hand, post-monsoonal precipitation is significantly decreasing across all of Nepal while winter precipitation is decreasing only over the WM region. Both high-intensity precipitation extremes and annual precipitation trends feature east-west contrast, suggesting significant increase over the WM and CH region but decrease over the EM and CM regions. Further, a significant positive trend in the number of consecutive dry days but significant negative trend in the number of wet (rainy) days are observed over the whole of Nepal, implying the prolongation of the dry spell across the country. Overall, the intensification of different precipitation indices over distinct parts of the country indicates region-specific risks of floods, landslides and droughts. The presented findings, in combination with population and environmental pressures, can support in devising the adequate region-specific adaptation strategies for different sectors and in improving the livelihood of the rural communities in Nepal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theory predicts that due to their resilience, ecosystems and populations are expected to respond to environmental changes not gradually, but in a nonlinear way with sudden abrupt shifts. However, it is not easy to observe and predict the state-and-transition dynamics in the real world because of time lags between exogenous perturbations and species response. Based on yearly surveys, during 21 years (1994-2014), we have studied population dynamics of a desert rodent (the midday gerbil, Meriones meridianus) in the rangelands of southern Russia under landscape change from desert to steppe caused by the drastic reduction of livestock after the collapse of the USSR in the early 1990s. The population of M. meridianus has remained robust to landscape change from desert to steppe for over 10 years, but then has suddenly dropped down and has not recovered since. The step transition from the high- to low-abundance density-regulated equilibrium was accompanied by an abrupt increase in the spatio-temporal population variability, which may indicate the loss of population resilience. We explain inertia in species response to landscape change and an abrupt regime shift in population dynamics by species-specific ecology and life-history combined with habitat fragmentation that had reached a certain critical threshold level by the early 2000s. This is a rare well-documented demonstration of a delayed threshold response of a wild unexploited mammal population to human-induced environmental change, which may shed light on the mechanisms of population resilience and underlying causes of threshold population dynamics in a changing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the historical and future outputs of 17 coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, simulation of the precipitation extremes in China was evaluated under baseline climate condition compared to a gridded daily observation dataset CN05.1. The variations in precipitation extremes for eight global warming targets were also projected. The 17 individual models and the multi-model ensemble accurately reproduced the spatial distribution of precipitation extremes, although they were limited in their ability to capture the temporal characteristics. A notable dry bias existed in Southeast China, while a wet bias was present in North and Northwest China. The precipitation extremes in China were projected to be more frequent and more intense as global temperature rise reached the 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0 °C warming targets. The projected percentage changes in the annual number of days with precipitation >50 mm (R50) and total precipitation during days in which the daily precipitation exceeds the 99th percentile (R99p) are projected to increase by 25.81 and 69.14 % relative to the baseline climate for a 1.5 °C warming target, and by 95.52 and 162.00 % for a 4.0 °C warming target, respectively. As the global mean temperature rise increased from 1.5 to 5 °C, the subregions considerably affected by the East Asian summer monsoon (e.g., Southwest China, South China, and the Yangtze-Huai River Valley) were projected to experience a more dramatic increase in extreme precipitation events, in both number of days and intensity, while North and Northwest China were projected to suffer from relatively slight increases. The model uncertainties in the projected precipitation extremes in China by 17 CMIP5 models increase as global temperature rise increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explosive cyclones are intense extra-tropical low pressure systems featuring large deepening rates. In the Euro-Atlantic sector, they are a major source of life-threatening weather impacts due to their associated strong wind gusts, heavy precipitation and storm surges. The wintertime variability of the North Atlantic cyclonic activity is primarily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we investigate the interannual and multi-decadal variability of explosive North Atlantic cyclones using track density data from two reanalysis datasets (NCEP and ERA-40) and a control simulation of an atmosphere/ocean coupled General Circulation Model (GCM-ECHAM5/MPIOM1). The leading interannual and multi-decadal modes of variability of explosive cyclone track density are characterized by a strengthening/weakening pattern between Newfoundland and Iceland, which is mainly modulated by the NAO at both timescales. However, the NAO control of interannual cyclone variability is not stationary in time and abruptly fluctuates during periods of 20-25 years long both in NCEP and ECHAM5/MPIOM1. These transitions are accompanied by structural changes in the leading mode of explosive cyclone variability, and by decreased/enhanced baroclinicity over the sub-polar/sub-tropical North Atlantic. The influence of the ocean is apparently important for both the occurrence and persistence of such anomalous periods. In the GCM, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation appears to influence the large-scale baroclinicity and explosive cyclone development over the North Atlantic. These results permit a better understanding of explosive cyclogenesis variability at different climatic timescales and might help to improve predictions of these hazardous events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over most of its range populations of the spittlebug Prosapia ignipectus (Fitch) (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) are monomorphic for black dorsal coloration. At the far northeastern margin of the species range in Maine, a cluster of populations is monomorphic for the presence of traverse orange dorsal lines against a black background. The narrow gap separating monomorphic black and monomorphic lined populations is less than 10 km wide, shows no evidence of a hybrid zone, and is without consequential physical barriers or ecological breaks. This sharp and unexpected division of color forms seems to have persisted for at least 90 years. It appears to be the sharpest divide ever recorded between geographically adjacent populations monomorphic for alternative aposematic color forms. About 45 kilometers to the southwest of this dividing line, three closely situated populations, surrounded by monomorphic black populations, are polymorphic for the two color forms. These observations are at variance with several expectations for aposematic species: (1) that local populations will be monomorphic for warning coloration, (2) that adjacent populations monomorphic for different local color forms will be linked by populations with mixed or hybrid forms, and (3) that geographic boundaries between contrasting aposematic color forms should be temporally unstable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a new interpretation is proposed for the abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. We hypothesize that this abrupt change constitutes a part of the phenomenon of interdecadal change in TC activity in the Pacific Basin, including the WNP, western South Pacific (WSP), and eastern North Pacific. Our analysis revealed that the climate-regime shift (CRS) in the Pacific during the middle to late 1990s resulted in a La Niña-like mean state, which was responsible for the interdecadal change in TC activity in the late 1990s. Analyses of the TC genesis potential index and numerical experiments revealed that the decline in TC activity in both the WNP and WSP was primarily attributable to the increase of vertical wind shear in the central Pacific due to the La Niña-like associated cold sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, the La Niña-like associated warm SST in the western Pacific produced anomalous vertical transport of water vapor, increasing moisture levels in the mid-troposphere and TC activity in the western WNP. Furthermore, the CRS modified the mean TC genesis position and shifted the steering flow to the west, resulting in the increased frequency of TC landfalls in Taiwan, southeastern China, and northern Australia after the late 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the basis of monthly runoff series obtained in 1950–2013 and annual sediment load measured in 1956–-2013 at five key hydrological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, this study used the Mann-Kendall methods to identify trend and abrupt changes of runoff and sediment load in relation to human activities. The results were as follows: (1) The annual and flood season runoffs showed significant decreasing trends at Yichang station, and showed slight downward trends at Hankou and Datong stations, while the abrupt changes of dry season runoff at Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations occurred in about 2007 and the change points were followed by significant increasing trends. The construction of the Three Gorges Dam, which began to operate in 2003, influenced the variations of runoff in the mainstream of Yangtze River, but the effect weakened with the distance along the downstream direction from TGD. (2) Since the 1990s, annual sediment loads at Yichang, Hankou, and Datong stations have been decreasing significantly, and after 2002, the annual sediment load at Yichang dropped below that of Hankou and Datong. The dams and deforestation/forestation contributed to the significant decreasing trend of the sediment load. In addition, the Three Gorges Dam aggravated the downward trend and caused the erosion of the riverbed and riverbanks in the middle and lower reaches. (3) The runoff and sediment load flowing from Dongting Lake into the mainstream of the Yangtze River showed significant decreasing trends at Chenglingji station after 1970s, and in contrast, slight increase in the sediment flow from Poyang Lake to the mainstream of the Yangtze River at Hukou station were detected over the post-TGD period (2003–2013). The result of the study will be an important foundation for watershed sustainable development of the Yangtze River under the human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the performance of moving cut data-approximate entropy (MC-ApEn) to detect abrupt dynamic changes was investigated. Numerical tests in a time series model indicate that the MC-ApEn method is suitable for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes for three types of meteorological data: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily precipitation. Additionally, the MC-ApEn method was used to detect abrupt climate changes in daily precipitation data from Northwest China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The results show an abrupt dynamic change in precipitation in 1980 and in the PDO index in 1976. The times indicated for the abrupt changes are identical to those from previous results. Application of the analysis to observational data further confirmed the performance of the MC-ApEn method. Moreover, MC-ApEn outperformed the moving t test (MTT) and the moving detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) methods for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes in a simulated 1000-point daily precipitation dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of ice-sheet retreat on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is studied using a transient simulation in NCAR-CCSM3 forced only by variations in continental ice sheets during the last deglaciation. The most striking feature is an abrupt strengthening of ENSO (by ~25 %) at 14 thousand years before present (ka BP) in response to a significant retreat (an equivalent ~25 m sea-level rise) of the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS). This abrupt intensification of ENSO is caused mainly by a sudden weakening of the equatorial annual cycle through the nonlinear mechanism of frequency entrainment, rather than an increase in the coupled ocean-atmosphere instability. The weakened annual cycle corresponds to a reduced north-south cross-equatorial annual mean SST contrast in the eastern Pacific. This reduced interhemispheric SST gradient-significant cooling north of the equator-is forced predominantly by an anomalous easterly from an abrupt polarward shift of the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere, which extends to the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean surface and is reinforced by the wind-evaporation-SST feedback then propagates equatorward; it could also be contributed by a fast sea-ice expansion and a consequent cooling in the North Pacific and North Atlantic that is induced by the retreat of the LIS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics and possible physical mechanism of interdecadal variation of the intensity of the South Asian High (SAH) in summer are analyzed using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) data. The results indicate that a remarkable interdecadal transition occurred in the late 1970s that increased the intensity of SAH, or, an abrupt climate change was around 1978. A comparative analysis between the weak and strong period of the SAH intensity shows that the related anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation (including wind field, air temperature field and vertical velocity field) are nearly opposite to each other. The surface latent heat flux anomalies over the plateau (especially in the northwest of the plateau) in summer exert great influence on the interdecadal variation of the SAH intensity and the surface sensible heat flux anomalies play a more important role. Consistent with the interdecadal variation of the SAH intensity, the monopole mode of the tropical Indian Ocean SST in summer also experienced a low to high transition in the late 1970s. To some extent, this can reveal the impact of the anomalous monopole mode of the tropical Indian Ocean SST in summer on interdecadal variation of the SAH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stability of modern ice shelves is threatened by atmospheric and oceanic warming. The geologic record of formerly glaciated continental shelves provides a window into the past of how ice shelves responded to a warming climate. Fields of deep (-560 m), linear iceberg furrows on the outer, western Ross Sea continental shelf record an early post-Last Glacial Maximum episode of ice-shelf collapse that was followed by continuous retreat of the grounding line for ~200 km. Runaway grounding line conditions culminated once the ice became pinned on shallow banks in the western Ross Sea. This early episode of ice-shelf collapse is not observed in the eastern Ross Sea, where more episodic grounding line retreat took place. More widespread (~280,000 km2) retreat of the ancestral Ross Ice Shelf occurred during the late Holocene. This event is recorded in sediment cores by a shift from terrigenous glacimarine mud to diatomaceous open-marine sediment as well as an increase in radiogenic beryllium (10Be) concentrations. The timing of ice-shelf breakup is constrained by compound specific radiocarbon ages, the first application of this technique systematically applied to Antarctic marine sediments. Breakup initiated around 5 ka, with the ice shelf reaching its current configuration ~1.5 ka. In the eastern Ross Sea, the ice shelf retreated up to 100 km in about a thousand years. Threedimensional thermodynamic ice-shelf/ocean modeling results and comparison with ice-core records indicate that ice-shelf breakup resulted from combined atmospheric warming and warm ocean currents impinging onto the continental shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between atmospheric blocking and extreme precipitation in summer in Romania during the period 1962-2010 is investigated. Percentile-based indices (R90p) for extreme precipitation events are calculated using data recorded at a large number of meteorological stations (98) covering the entire country. The dominant mode of variability of these indices has a monopolar structure and is related to two distinct atmospheric circulation blocking patterns. High frequency of blocking in the 0°-40°E sector is associated with high frequency of extreme precipitation events over Romania. This is due to enhanced synoptic scale activity associated with advection of relatively high potential vorticity from northeast towards Romanian region, as well as with enhanced synoptic scale activity in the Mediterranean region. Enhanced blocking activity in the 50°-70°E sector favours an eastward extension of Atlantic jet, and the associated instabilities are related to extreme precipitation events over large parts of central and Eastern Europe. We argue that these two distinct blocking patterns explain a substantial part of extreme precipitation variability in Romania during summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is of great importance to investigate links between hydrological drought and climate indices, which helps to further reveal the cause of hydrological drought from a perspective of climate change, thus helping guiding future drought prediction and control. For a case study in the Columbia River basin, the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) was employed to characterize hydrological drought. The heuristic segmentation method was applied to identify change points of annual streamflow series spanning 1960-2012 in the Columbia River basin, and the cross-wavelet analysis was utilized to reveal the correlations between monthly climate indices and SSI. The primary results are as following: (1) monthly SSI has a statistically significantly increasing trend in November and December and a noticeably decreasing trend in June and July in the main stream of the basin; (2) generally, hydrological drought risk in this basin is high, and that in the Snake River is higher than the main stream of the Columbia River; (3) El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) play a major role in affecting hydrological drought in the Columbia River basin, and ENSO index mainly affects SSI at a relatively short time scale (2-7 years), while AO primarily impacts SSI at a relatively long time scale (more than 10 years); (4) anthropogenic activities intensify hydrological drought in the Columbia River basin, and they primarily influence the linkages between climate indices and hydrological drought at intra-annual scale (less than 12 months), however, which do not change the basic pattern of their correlations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied rainfall characteristics of Brazil for the period 1979-2011. This is an update for an earlier study with data from 1958 to 1978. We compared the three consecutive wet and dry months in the two data sets. In the northern most part rainy season earlier was in April to July and now it is occurring later. In a large part of the south central region the rainy season in austral summer and dry season in austral winter did not change. However, to the east of this region rainy season in the latter data occurs earlier. Calculation of linear tendencies showed, that over the northern Amazon region there is a significant increase of rainfall. This agreed with previous results. Over this region dry season is becoming drier and wet season wetter. In the west of Northeast Brazil (NEB) there is an increase of rainfall. In southeast Brazil there is a region of highly significant decrease of rainfall in both wet and dry seasons. This is confirmed in our analysis on river discharges in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states. The negative tendencies in rainfall have great impact on the hydroelectric generation not only in this region but also at the national level because the hydroelectric dams furnish energy on a national level. The increase in rainfall in Northern Amazon is probably associated with Atlantic warming that resulted in higher moisture transport from east. The decrease of rainfall in southeast Brazil seems to be associated with the plummet of rain producing systems from south due to increase of mean sea level pressure in the south. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the influence of global climate oscillations on the local temperature and precipitation over the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is one of the driest regions in the world with very high temperatures and low precipitation. The identification and assessment of remote interactions (teleconnections) are carried out by using ground station and gridded data sets. Monthly rainfall data from six ground stations over the UAE for the period of 1982-2010 is used in this study along with the long-term gridded precipitation and temperature data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center and Global Historic Climatic Network. Linear correlations, wavelet analysis, and cross-wavelet analysis have been applied to identify the relation between climate indices and precipitation (temperature). The analysis reveals that the strong variability in precipitation is closely associated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Indian Ocean Dipole Index (IOD) during the months of August-March, September-January, respectively. In case of temperature, the strong variability is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) and the East Atlantic Oscillation Index (EAO) during the months of April-October, July-December. Spatial analysis of cross-wavelet reveals that the winter precipitation is significantly influenced by SOI and temperature during summer by the NAO. This research concludes that the negative phases of SOI (NAO) play a significant role in the increase of precipitation (decrease in summer temperatures) over the UAE region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the large body of research devoted to understanding the role of Quaternary glacial cycles in the genetic divergence of European trees, the differential contribution of geographic isolation and/or environmental adaptation in creating population genetic divergence remains unexplored. In this study, we used a long-lived tree ( Taxus baccata) as a model species to investigate the impact of Quaternary climatic changes on genetic diversity via neutral (isolation-by-distance) and selective (isolation-by-adaptation) processes., We applied approximate Bayesian computation to genetic data to infer its demographic history, and combined this information with past and present climatic data to assess the role of environment and geography in the observed patterns of genetic structure., We found evidence that yew colonized Europe from the East, and that European samples diverged into two groups ( Western, Eastern) at the beginning of the Quaternary glaciations, c. 2.2 Myr before present. Apart from the expected effects of geographical isolation during glacials, we discovered a significant role of environmental adaptation during interglacials at the origin of genetic divergence between both groups., This process may be common in other organisms, providing new research lines to explore the effect of Quaternary climatic factors on present-day patterns of genetic diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban environmental health hazards, including exposure to extreme heat, have become increasingly important to understand in light of ongoing climate change and urbanization. In cities, neighborhoods are often considered a homogenous and appropriate unit with which to assess heat risk. This manuscript presents results from a pilot study examining the variability of individually experienced temperatures (IETs) within a single urban neighborhood. In July 2013, 23 research participants were recruited from the South End neighborhood of Boston and equipped with Thermochron iButtons that measured the air temperatures surrounding individuals as they went about their daily lives. IETs were measured during a heat wave period (July 17-20), which included 2 days with excessive heat warnings and 1 day with a heat advisory, as well as a reference period (July 20-23) in which temperatures were below seasonal averages. IETs were not homogeneous during the heat wave period; mean IETs were significantly different between participants ( p < 0.001). The majority of participants recorded IETs significantly lower than outdoor ambient temperatures (OATs), and on average, the mean IET was 3.7 °C below the mean OAT. Compared with IETs during the reference period, IETs during the heat wave period were 1.0 °C higher. More than half of participants did not experience statistically different temperatures between the two test periods, despite the fact that the mean OAT was 6.5 °C higher during the heat wave period. The IET data collected for this sample and study period suggest that (1) heterogeneity in individual heat exposure exists within this neighborhood and that (2) outdoor temperatures misrepresent the mean experienced temperatures during a heat wave period. Individual differences in attributes (gender, race, socioeconomic status, etc.), behaviors (schedules, preferences, lifestyle, etc.), and access to resources are overlooked determinants of heat exposure and should be better integrated with group- and neighborhood-level characteristics. Understanding IETs for the population at large may lead to innovative advances in heat-health intervention and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding spatial and temporal dynamics of land surface phenology (LSP) and its driving forces are critical for providing information relevant to short- and long-term decision making, particularly as it relates to climate response planning. With the third generation Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS3g) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and environmental data from multiple sources, we investigated the spatio-temporal changes in the start of the growing season (SOS) in southern African savannas from 1982 through 2010 and determined its linkage to environmental factors using spatial panel data models. Overall, the SOS occurs earlier in the north compared to the south. This relates in part to the differences in ecosystems, with northern areas representing high rainfall and dense tree cover (mainly tree savannas), whereas the south has lower rainfall and sparse tree cover (mainly bush and grass savannas). From 1982 to 2010, an advanced trend was observed predominantly in the tree savanna areas of the north, whereas a delayed trend was chiefly found in the floodplain of the north and bush/grass savannas of the south. Different environmental drivers were detected within tree- and grass-dominated savannas, with a critical division being represented by the 800 mm isohyet. Our results supported the importance of water as a driver in this water-limited system, specifically preseason soil moisture, in determining the SOS in these water-limited, grass-dominated savannas. In addition, the research pointed to other, often overlooked, effects of preseason maximum and minimum temperatures on the SOS across the entire region. Higher preseason maximum temperatures led to an advance of the SOS, whereas the opposite effects of preseason minimum temperature were observed. With the rapid increase in global change research, this work will prove helpful for managing savanna landscapes and key to predicting how projected climate changes will affect regional vegetation phenology and productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transient climate response to a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is analysed from the difference between two ensembles of climate model simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM, one with hosing and the other without hosing. The primary effect of the collapse is to redistribute heat over the two hemispheres. However, Northern Hemisphere sea ice increase in response to the AMOC collapse induces a hemisphere-wide cooling, amplified by atmospheric feedbacks, in particular water vapour. The Southern Hemisphere warming is governed by slower processes. After 25 years the global cooling peaks. Thereafter, the response is characterised by a gradual readjustment of global mean temperature. During the AMOC collapse a downward radiation anomaly arises at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), heating the earth's surface. The net downward radiation anomaly at TOA arises from reduced longwave emission by the atmosphere, overcompensating the increased net upward anomalies in shortwave and longwave radiation at the surface. This radiation anomaly is associated with net ocean heat uptake: cooling of the overlying atmosphere results from reduced ocean heat release through the increase of sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic. The change in energy flow arises from the reduction in latent and sensible heat flux, which dominate the surface radiation budget. Similar experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity reveal a stronger shortwave response that acts to reduce the net downward radiation anomaly at TOA. The net shortwave and longwave radiation anomalies at TOA always decrease during the first 100 years after the AMOC collapse, but in the intermediate complexity model this is associated with a sign change after 90 years when the net radiation anomaly at TOA becomes upward, accompanied by net ocean heat loss. After several hundred years the longwave and shortwave anomalies increase again, while the net residual at TOA remains small. This radiative adjustment is associated with the transition to a colder climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt climate changes that are widely considered to result from millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, the origin of these AMOC reorganizations remains poorly understood. The climatic connection between both hemispheres indicated by proxies suggests that the Southern Ocean (SO) could regulate this variability through changes in winds and atmospheric CO $$_{2}$$ concentration. Here, we investigate this hypothesis using a coupled climate model forced by prescribed CO $$_{2}$$ and SO wind-stress variations. We find that the AMOC exhibits an oscillatory behavior between weak and strong circulation regimes which is ultimately caused by changes in the meridional density gradient of the Atlantic Ocean. The evolution of the simulated climatic patterns matches the amplitude and timing of the largest events that occurred during the last glacial period and their widespread climatic impacts. Our results suggest the existence of an internal interhemispheric oscillation mediated by the bipolar seesaw that could promote glacial abrupt climate changes through variations in atmospheric CO $$_{2}$$ levels, the strength of the SO winds and AMOC reorganizations, and provide an explanation for the pervasive Antarctic-like climate signal found in proxy records worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relativelyminor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL·L-1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores long-term deviations from wind averages, specifically near the surface across central North America and adjoining oceans (25°-50°N, 60°-130°W) for 1979-2012 (408 months) by utilizing the North American Regional Reanalysis 10-m wind climate datasets. Regions where periods of anomalous wind speeds were observed (i.e., 1 standard deviation below/above both the long-term mean annual and mean monthly wind speeds at each grid point) were identified. These two climatic extremes were classified as wind lulls (WLs; below) or wind blows (WBs; above). Major findings for the North American study domain indicate that 1) mean annual wind speeds range from 1-3 m s−1 (Intermountain West) to over 7 m s−1 (offshore the East and West Coasts), 2) mean durations for WLs and WBs are high for much of the southeastern United States and for the open waters of the North Atlantic Ocean, respectively, 3) the longest WL/WB episodes for the majority of locations have historically not exceeded 5 months, 4) WLs and WBs are most common during June and October, respectively, for the upper Midwest, 5) WLs are least frequent over the southwestern United States during the North American monsoon, and 6) no significant anomalous wind trends exist over land or sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High rates of climate and land-use changes threaten biodiversity and ecosystem function, creating a need for integrated assessments and planning at regional to global scales. We develop a new approach to measure multivariate estimates of climate and land-use change that builds on recently developed measures of climate velocity, and apply it to assess the combined speeds of climate and land use for the conterminous US from 2001 to 2051. The combined speeds of climate and land-use change are highest in a broad north-to-south swath in the central US and in parts of the intermountain west. Climate speeds are roughly an order of magnitude higher than land-use speeds in most regions, but land-use speed is particularly high in the Appalachians and north-central forests. Joint speeds are low across much of the intermountain west. Our results highlight areas expected to be most vulnerable to changes in biodiversity and ecosystem function due to the individual or combined effects of climate and land-use change. The integration of climate and land-use scenarios suggests different conservation prioritization strategies from climate velocities and species alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change-with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean-facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise of research. Changes in the abiotic environment can influence plant mating systems through phenotypic changes in floral traits that affect selfing. Herkogamy (spatial separation of male and female functions within a flower), dichogamy (temporal separation), and total flower number affect within- (autogamy) and/or among- (geitonogamy) flower selfing. We examined the potential effects of environmental changes associated with global warming on herkogamy, dichogamy, and number of flowers per plant and discussed the impacts on the mating system in a high-altitude species, Aquilegia coerulea. Methodology. In the high-altitude habitats in which this species grows, global warming is expected to increase both temperature and spring precipitation in the form of rain. We grew plants from 17 families from each of three natural populations of A. coerulea at two temperature and two water treatments, leading to 692 experimental plants (2 temperature × 2 water × 3 populations × 17 families × 3-4 individuals per family). We measured herkogamy and dichogamy, recorded total flower number for each plant, and examined variation in floral traits due to genes and the environment. Pivotal results. Herkogamy, dichogamy, and total flower number-traits known to influence selfing rate- were all phenotypically plastic in response to changes in water or temperature. Genetic variation for all three traits was detected within and/or among populations. Conclusions. On the basis of our results, we predict that the increase in total flower number as a plastic response to global warming will have the strongest influence on the selfing rate and increase the level of geitonogamous selfing. Because inbreeding depression is high in A. coerulea, selection will act to reduce floral display in order to reduce inbreeding depression, but there will be a balance between the negative impact of inbreeding depression and the advantage provided by large floral displays in attracting pollinators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]