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Tea (Camellia sinensis L.), as one of the most important cash crops in China, plays an important role in increasing farmers' incomes and guaranteeing a high quality of life. Tea production has been greatly influenced by both climate change and economic development in China. However, without a scientific understanding of the interaction mechanism of climate change and the impetus from rapid economic development on tea production practices in China, it is difficult to take adaptive actions to meet the climate change challenges for the tea industry. In this paper, we firstly assessed the potential impacts of climate change on tea climate suitability by empirical formula calculation using meteorological data; then, the effects from the additional climatic stress due to warming on tea production were detected with the annual statistical tea yield record on a municipal level. The contribution of socioeconomic development to the tea industry was evaluated with the comparison of the movement of China's national economy's and tea industry's gravity center during the period of 1987–2017. Finally, a conceptual adaptation framework was built to demonstrate the interaction mechanisms between climate change, tea production, and the economic development. The results showed that there was a negative impact of climate change on tea production in mainland China, with the percentage of high tea climate suitability (>0.9) areas dropping by 45% to 32%, while opportunities of enlarging the tea cultivating area emerged in the north tea production region where the tea climate suitability increased. We found that the tea planting area expanded northwards from 33° N in 1987 to 35° N in 2017 to take advantage of the favorable climatic resources due to warming, and tea planting decreased at an altitude of 100–400 m while increasing to higher altitude of 400–2000 m to avoid hot temperature damage and seek the optimum environment in high mountainous areas for tea production. In addition, the tea production moved westward along the longitude, decreasing obviously at 117–121° E while increasing significantly at 98–104° E and 107–110° E. Meanwhile, the tea production gravity center showed a westward movement consistent with the national economic gravity center moving trend, which means that tea industry development was driven by multiple socioeconomic factors and climatic forcings. A conceptual framework was built in this paper, aiming to show a robust adaptation mechanism for the tea system to maximize the benefits and minimize the damages from the altered climatic resources under rapid economic development in mainland China. The results in this study would help deepen the understanding of the adaptation process and practices for tea production in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper used original survey data in Shandong province of China to depict local farmers' perceptions of combined climatic and market risks, and their adaptive behaviors. Two Logit models were developed to capture the empirical relationship between farmers' risk perception of the combined risks and adaptive behaviors. Results show that farmer's risk perception of climate change and market significantly affected their adoption behavior of adaptive measures, including perception of rainfall decrease, gale decrease, drought increase, and price fall of agricultural products. Moreover farmers' adaptive behaviors are more sensitive to their perceptions of extreme climatic events. Addition of demographic factors can improve the explanatory capacity of the Logit model. As illustrated by the models, male and better educated farmers have greater willingness to take actions for averting risks, while household heads with bigger farm are more reluctant. A majority of respondents chose to construct farm structure for irrigation and water conservation to avert climatic risks. Insurance, which is regarded as an effective tool to help farmers mitigate risks and avoid losses, has not been sufficiently accepted by farmers in rural areas in Shandong province. This underscores the need of effective communication of knowledge to enhance farmers' coping capacity and to encourage their active response to risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A primary goal of studying climate change adaptation is to identify the adaptation options that are used to improve crop productivity or reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Many of the adjustments in farm management that farmers adopt do not necessarily represent true adaptations to climate change, an issue often ignored in existing literature and resulting in a risk that policy makers are misled to think that adaptation is easier than it actually is, and thereby underestimate the challenge that climate change presents. The overall goal of this study is to identify whether farmers’ adoptions are enhancing food production and adapting to climate change. The identification uses a plot-level panel from a survey of 619 rural households in three provinces in China and county-level weather data. With the use of plot and county-by-year fixed effects as well as instrumental variable approaches, our estimates show that the autonomous adoptions are not effective in improving crop yields. This implies that farmers’ adoptions cannot be always considered adaptations to climate change. The paper provides a possible explanation for the results and concludes with policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although ski tourism in China is experiencing a boom, and the number of operating ski areas has significantly increased, the influence of climate change on the future development of China's ski industry has so far largely been overlooked. This paper addresses this important gap by applying the ski season simulation model SkiSim 2.0 at 116 ski areas. Four main indicators of climate change impact were examined: ski season length, operational ski days in economically important season segments, technically produced snow and snowmaking requirements. For all ski resorts in China and all climate change scenarios, average ski seasons are projected to shorten (− 4 to − 61% RCP 4.5; − 6 to − 79% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s) while snowmaking needs increase (27 to 51% RCP 4.5; 46 to 80% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s). The results indicate that high regional differences in climate change vulnerability exist. The implications for altered competitiveness and development potential of the ski industry in China are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses a potential risk to coastal infrastructure, thus threatening the economics or even the safety of human beings. Thus, a better understanding of the attitude of port organizations toward climate adaptation and mitigation is essential. This paper addresses this research gap by investigating 18 port organizations in China. The questions include the impediments and the impact of context, systems, and other factors on the implementation of adaptation strategies. The results indicate that port organizations are generally aware of climate change impacts and agree that some further steps are needed. However, policy support serves as a key factor in implementing adaptation plans. Apart from offering important insight on the attitude of port organizations, the study also serves as a platform for further research on climate adaptation planning in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planned resettlement is being widely considered as a response to the impacts of climate change. As many millions of people are expected to be displaced in the coming decades, scholars and policymakers are searching for precedence to inform their research and planning, particularly from experiences of Development‐Induced Displacement and Resettlement (DIDR). Nowhere in the world is DIDR and other closely related forms of planned resettlement more prevalent than in China: an estimated 78 million people have been displaced by development projects over the last six decades. While planned resettlement has consistently been shown to cause impoverishment, the Chinese state views it as the answer to a multitude of social ills including poverty, environmental damage, low levels of domestic consumption, and most recently, climate change, providing impetus to the normalisation of resettlement as adaptation. This paper examines the prospects for just outcomes in resettlement projects by examining distributive justice at multiple scales in existing resettlement practice in China. It finds that due to the interplay between resettlement and questions of procedural justice, prospects for just outcomes are quite limited, and that in order to achieve fair adaptation, alternatives to planned resettlement should be emphasised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households' adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of dry ports has reshaped the international freight shipping market, introducing both competition pressure (i.e., the common hinterland) and cooperation opportunities (sea-rail intermodal) for seaports. This is more evident in China with the development of the China Railway Express. Unlike dry ports, seaports are more vulnerable to climate change-related disasters, calling for investment in adaptation measures. This paper examines how co-opetition with the dry port affects seaport adaptation investment using a two-stage game-theoretical economic model. Results indicate that cooperation leads to more seaport adaptation investment, while competition results in reduced investment. When compared to the social optimal level of adaptation investment, the seaport tends to under-invest (over-invest) when the cooperation (competition) market size is larger. We also analyze how government subsidies in the seaport's adaptation help achieve optimal social adaptation and how the Knightian uncertainty of the disaster occurrence affects seaport adaptation investments. The relevant policy implications are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past 100 years and the potential impact climate change has on transmission of mosquito-borne infectious diseases poses a risk to Chinese populations. The aims of this paper are to summarize what is known about the impact of climate change on the incidence and prevalence of malaria, dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis in China and to provide important information and direction for adaptation policy making. Fifty-five papers met the inclusion criteria for this study. Examination of these studies indicates that variability in temperature, precipitation, wind, and extreme weather events is linked to transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in some regions of China. However, study findings are inconsistent across geographical locations and this requires strengthening current evidence for timely development of adaptive options. After synthesis of available information we make several key adaptation recommendations including: improving current surveillance and monitoring systems; concentrating adaptation strategies and policies on vulnerable communities; strengthening adaptive capacity of public health systems; developing multidisciplinary approaches sustained by an new mechanism of inter-sectional coordination; and increasing awareness and mobilization of the general public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a climate sensitive sector, tourism is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Indeed, the tourism sector has already been experiencing impacts rising from climate change such as warming temperatures, sea level rise, coral bleaching, and increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, etc. While China is a major source market for many destinations all over the world, it is rising in the ranking of the world's top tourism destinations by achieving the fourth position in terms of international tourist arrivals in 2004. It has been projected by the World Travel and Tourism Council that China is to become the second largest travel and tourism economy in the world over the next ten years. On the other hand, China is one of "climate-tourism hotspots" where climate change can have a major adverse effect on tourism. The projected impacts of climate change in China include more common heatwaves, change of precipitation and water availability, increase in frequency of tropical storms, sea level rise and coastal erosion. Although how these climate change projections would affect China's tourism has yet to be assessed, it will inevitably need to adapt to future impacts of climate change. Aware of this situation, Chinese government has been making efforts to develop policies to address adaptation issues. This paper aims to review China's recent policy development in tourism adaptation to climate change. Based on the understanding of the current policies, it concludes with recommendations for future policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge have significant impacts on tourism properties and activities in the low-lying coastal region. Coastal tourism in Zhejiang Province, China, is physically and socioeconomically susceptible to the flood risk posed by accelerated SLR and intensified storm surge. In this paper, within a scenario design of SLR and storm surge, a GIS-based dataset of major coastal tourist attractions in coastal Zhejiang is created to assess their potential flood risk by using a simple inundation model and a risk matrix. It is estimated that only two resorts would be directly flooded by a SLR of 1-2 m, but extensive inundation of coastal tourism communities may occur during low-frequency surges, especially after adding predicted 1-m SLR. The risk assessment further shows that a majority of the exposed sites is subject to moderate and low risk at current state but would be at higher (moderate and high)-risk categories in the future. In the long term, a combination of adaption measures is presented for policy-makers and other stakeholders for sustainable flood risk management in coastal tourism destinations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small and micro businesses bear the brunt of climate change impacts in the climate-challenged economy. Vulnerability is embedded into the socio-economic trajectories of their primary decision-makers. Multiple vulnerabilities may arise if the decision-makers' socio-economic conditions are associated with climate-sensitive business characteristics. Previous research has provided little evidence on such linkages, thus losing insights into how different facets of vulnerability interact and evolve over time. This paper explores the interactions between elements of small business vulnerability and the socio-economic characteristics of their primary decision-makers. It draws on the results of a survey involving 116 owner-managers of small and micro businesses and in-depth interviews with a sub-sample. Study areas are three remote coastal communities in Hong Kong exposed to high floods. Results show that such interactions exist in multiple, non-linear ways. Socio-economic disadvantages (i.e. low education attainment, old age, low income, and female) are related to some aspects of small business vulnerability, while playing a role in mitigating or avoiding other aspects of it. The findings call for building frameworks that account for the multiple spheres in which vulnerabilities are engendered and their interactions, while allowing for complexities and feedback mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are facing considerable challenges resulting from imminent climate change impacts. Urban planning to minimise adverse impacts of climate change at the city level can establish a climate-resilient city. Mitigation strategies to reduce CO2 emissions would lead to a climate-friendly city. Integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation into sustainable city planning should not be merely added as a single level of sustainable city planning, but requires a wide range of multi-level cooperation. Lijiang City has experienced climatic change during the last half century, and its CO2 emissions have increased faster than the GDP growth. Nearby glaciers on Yulong Snow Mountain have been retreating and losing mass since the early twentieth century. In this paper, we identify economic sectors that are vulnerable to climate change, including tourism, agriculture and water supply, and propose mitigation and adaptation strategies to cope with climate change in this tourism city. As energy use is the largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, renewable energy has enormous CO2 reduction potential. Land use practices, a sectoral approach and public participation are all considered adaptive in climate planning. The proposals outlined are valuable as they provide an understanding of how to implement integrated climate planning and integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation into sustainable city planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ambitious goals to limit global warming can only be reached with a broad acceptance and participation of the general public. This paper relies on surveys among citizens in China, Germany and the U.S. and investigates the determinants of the acceptance of national and international adaptation and mitigation efforts. The empirical findings indicate that specific beliefs and environmental awareness are important drivers in all three countries, while political attitudes and socio-economic characteristics are the main sources of cross-country heterogeneity. The study thereby points at important starting points and target groups for raising the acceptance of national and international climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture is an important type of land use but suffers from drought, especially under global climate change scenarios. Although government is a major actor in helping farmers to adapt to drought, lack of funds has constrained its efforts. Public-Private Partnership (PPP) mechanism has been widely applied in urban infrastructure development to raise fund for public goods and services, but very few studies explored its role in rural areas. Based on interview of 139 farming households and open-ended interview of village heads, government officials and company representatives, in the Lujiang Flatland in the Nu River (Upper Salween) Valley, Southwest China, this paper aims to reveal how PPP functions to enhance farmers' adaptation to drought. We found that farmers have developed multiple strategies in their own ways to adapt to drought, including pumping and store water, using water-saving irrigation techniques, changing of crops, and strengthening water management at the community level, while insufficient funds, water resource scarcity and mismatch of time-scale of crop growth and drought even hindered their adaptation options. Limited fund sources, gap in policy implementation and weak performance of government-funded projects hindered governmental supports to be effective. Weak motivation and distrusted by farmers limited the engagement of private enterprises in supporting farmers to adapt to drought. PPP mechanism has the potential to mobilize fund from multiple sources, share costs, risks and benefits among different stakeholders, combine both scientific and local knowledge, and reduce uncertainty through formal and informal institutions. Benefited from these advantages, PPP mechanism could improve project performance, thus increase farmers’ adaptation options and resilience to drought. This study offers referential lessons and valuable insights for agricultural development, especially for mountain communities vulnerable to exceptional and recurrent drought episodes under warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the effects of ambient temperatures on mental health using a nationally representative longitudinal survey of Chinese individuals. We find that temperatures over 30 ∘ C significantly increase the likelihood of depression. High temperatures have larger detrimental effects on the mental health of the middle-aged and elderly, females, the less-educated, and agricultural workers. We discuss two likely mechanisms for the mental health impact of high temperatures: raising the incidence of physical illness and reducing sleeping time. We find suggestive evidence of air conditioners moderating the adverse impacts of high temperatures and of adaptation to high temperatures in the long term. We reveal that without any government interventions or private adaptation, mental health will deteriorate by 3.1% in the medium term and 5.3% in the long term based on the Hadley GEM2-ES climate-change projection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Species range shift is one of the most significant consequences of climate change in the Anthropocene. A comprehensive study, including demographic, physiological and genetic factors linked to poleward range expansion, is crucial for understanding how the expanding population occupies the new habitat. In the present study, we investigated the demographic, physiological and genetic features of the intertidal gastropod Nerita yoldii, which has extended its northern limit by ~200 km over the former biogeographical break of the Yangtze River Estuary in recent decades. Data from neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed that the new marginal populations formed a distinct cluster established by a few founders. Demographic modelling analysis revealed that the new marginal populations experienced a strong genetic bottleneck followed by recent demographic expansion. Successful expansion that overcame the founder effect might be attributed to its high capacity for rapid population growth and multiple introductions. According to the non‐neutral SNPs under diversifying selection, there were high levels of heterozygosity in the new marginal populations, which might be beneficial for adapting to the novel thermal conditions. The common garden experiment showed that the new marginal populations have evolved divergent transcriptomic and physiological responses to heat stress, allowing them to occupy and survive in the novel environment. Lower transcriptional plasticity was observed in the new marginal populations. These results suggest a new biogeographical pattern of N. yoldii has formed with the occurrence of demographic, physiological and genetic changes, and emphasize the roles of adaptation of marginal populations during range expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tries to answer the question that whether farmers can adjust better to climate change in the short-term than in long-term by using panel data models and long difference models respectively. We find that short term weather shocks are less detrimental to maize yield than the long-term climate changes, which can be seen as the evidences of adaptations. For adaptation options, we find farmers choose to decrease maize planting area or enlarge the irrigation inputs to cope with the increase of extreme heat days; when there are more precipitations, farmers will increase the input of fertilizer or labor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Understanding the confounding impacts of climatic and varietal changes on crop phenology is of importance to help make appropriate adaptation measures and target future directions for crop breeding. This paper investigated the changes in winter wheat phenology and analysed the impact of climatic, varietal and sowing date changes on crop phenology during the last three decades by combining field data with modeling. The APSIM crop model was used to quantify the changes in wheat phenology in terms of vernalization and photoperiod sensitivity as well as the changes in thermal time of pre- and post-flowering stage among wheat varieties at six sites in the North China Plain (NCP). The results showed that APSIM model could capture the phenological changes of winter wheat caused by interannual climatic change. There was a large spatial difference in the response pattern of wheat phenology to climatic and varietal changes across NCP. At most sites the increase in temperature shortened the growth duration of winter wheat mainly by shortening the growth period from sowing to jointing. The delayed sowing of winter wheat further shortened the growth period from sowing to jointing at two northern sites (Tianjin and Huimin). Continuous adoption of new wheat varieties shortened the growth period from sowing to jointing at Huimin, Xinxiang and Zhumadian, from jointing to flowering at Tianjin, but helped increase the length of growth period from jointing to flowering at Huimin, Tangyin and Xinxiang and post-flowering growth period at all the sites except for Tangyin. The findings of the study suggest that past cultivar changes in wheat in the NCP have been varied geographically. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change is affecting agricultural production and is expected to continue reducing water availability, potentially necessitating adaptation adjustment by related sectors to maintain sustainability of saline land use system highly vulnerable to water shortages. The drought in 2010 impacted the salt-affected land use system of the coastal region in Jiangsu Province, China. The main purpose of this paper is to determine which systems are least adaptive, and what factors limit their adaptive capacity to drought, among three typical saline land use systems of Jinhai farm located in the coastal reclamation region of north Jiangsu Province. An analytical framework for analyzing climate impacts and adaptation for saline agriculture is presented. To better understand climate change impacts and the adaptive capacity of saline land use systems, we conducted semi-structured interviews and group discussions with representatives of surrounding households and the farmer on Jinhai farm, experts and officials from government sectors and institutes. From these conversations two impact indicators were picked up and a set of determinants for adaptability and their rankings were derived. There is considerable variability in climate change impacts among different saline land use systems and a concentration of impacts on paddy systems. Adaptability in addition to climate change is cumulative to the impacts, particularly unsafe water resource planning, irrational land use mode and crop arrangement, and defective institutions and policies. Our results highlight the importance of a comprehensive and integrative land development planning involving water resource and land use arrangements participated in by representatives of stakeholders. Although there has been much progress in streamlining climate change assessments into sector planning in Dafeng – such as water resources, agriculture, beach and so on – it is clear that there is a need to improve institution, policy, market guidelines and technique R&D to ensure more consistent adaptation, especially considering the rapid evolution of the climate science behind the assessments. Achieving sustainable saline agriculture might require transformative changes in markets, policies, and science. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The National 12th Five-Year-Plan for Social and Economic Development (2011–2015) (national development policy) in China requires knowledge of ecological complexity to better guide policy development for adaptation strategies and mitigation to complex climate change. The thinking of human–environment interactions supplements climate change related policies in supporting sustainability through adaptation and mitigation. Based on a review of the climate change contents of the National 10th and 11th Five-Year-Plan in China, the paper illustrates the complexity of climate changes that have affected China''s environmental sustainability now and offers policy viewpoints for the in-preparing 12th Five-Year Plan, with five core areas for the implementation of climate change policy: (A) development of the transition to a low carbon economy, (B) prevention and treatment of urban environmental negative effects caused by climate change, (C) adaptation to sea level rises in coastal zones, (D) maintaining the resilience of natural ecosystems affected by climate change, and (E) prevention and control of climate disaster and environmental risk. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Frequently unknown climate change increases the risk of agriculture, more attention have been paid to agricultural system itself in the research field, but few has been attached to the perspective of social dimension. Based on the research on Yangtze River Basin of China, the paper has adopted vulnerability theory including the exposure of agricultural ecosystem, farmers’ sensitivity to exposure and adaptive capacity to climate risk, to explain farmer''s adaptation to climate risk. It concludes that climate change has increased climate risk in agriculture and the uncertainty of agricultural production. Confronting climate risk in agriculture, different farming bodies have shown different farm and off-farm/non-farm adaptations in pre-risk, during risk and post-risk, which has reduced their short-term vulnerability. Household life cycle, pressure, institution, available resources and technologies are the key influential factors. From the adaptation in long term, it still requires external support and more investment including agricultural insurance system, village-level information and technology dissemination mechanism. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The intensification of heat stress in a changing climate poses great threats to both human health and labor productivity. It is of great practical importance to assess the impacts of climate-induced heat stress on labor productivity and to develop effective adaptation strategies. In this paper, an integrated optimization-based productivity restoration modeling framework is proposed for the first time to develop the optimal policies for adaptation to climate change. To address underlying uncertainties associated with climate and labor management systems, we take into account ensemble projections from five global climate models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and inexact system costs. The system costs, including direct and indirect costs such as management costs, energy costs, and labor costs, are presented as interval numbers due to inherent uncertainty caused by population growth, technology development, and other social-economic factors. Uncertain information can be effectively communicated into the optimization processes in this study to generate optimal and reliable decision alternatives. We find that the increased Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) will lead to a large reduction in labor capacities over China except for the Tibetan Plateau under both RCPs by the end of the 21st century. The less developed regions tend to achieve the minimum system cost by having labor productivity recovered through working overtime due to the relatively low cost of overtime. This could result in more heat-related work injuries in the less developed regions. Since the less developed regions are not heat-prone areas in China, the changing climate would be a more dangerous threat and cause more damages to these regions where the residents are less acclimatized to heat stress. Moreover, we obtain a range of minimum system costs from 1.86 to 8.97 billion dollars under RCP2.6 and from 9.42 to 32.31 billion dollars under RCP8.5 (about 0.2% of China's GDP in 2019, 0.01% of China's GDP projected in 2100 under a sustainable socio-economic development scenario) for the restoration of labor productivity in a warming climate. We argue that urgent actions are needed to mitigate global warming impacts on labor productivity. • An integrated optimization modeling framework is developed to achieve optimal labor productivity restoration in a warming climate. • Various uncertainties are addressed through ensemble climate projections and interval programming models. • Intensification of heat stress leads to a large decrease in labor capacity over China except for the Tibetan Plateau. • More losses in working hours are projected for moderate labor activities compared to light and heavy labor activities. • Less developed regions tend to have more working hours recovered by working overtime than air conditioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the distributional effects of high temperature on worker performance and the effectiveness of adaptation when capital investments such as air conditioning are not feasible. Using a longitudinal data set of 3196 professional archers in 57 competitions during 2010–2016 in China, which includes accurate performance measures at the individual‐by‐contest level, we show that heat causes more uneven performance distributions by hurting the bottom performers more than the top performers. More frequent heat reduces average performance and raises distributional inequality more than increases in average temperature. Gaining experience and long‐term acclimatization together can mitigate 70% of the heat impacts, demonstrating the potential of adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have shown that climate change will impose severe challenges on agriculture with profound implications. Although some hypothetical simulations have suggested that an optimal re‐arrangement of the growing season can substantially mitigate yield losses under future climate, no causal estimate has been provided on quantifying the extent to which farmers are adapting through growing‐season adjustments. Using a novel microlevel data with detailed crop progress information in China over 1993–2013, we show that both planting dates and growing season lengths significantly respond to contemporaneous temperature and precipitation. Our estimates suggest that, for a median site in our sample, the adaptive behavior in growing season adjustments can lead to a two to six days earlier planting date and another three to six days shorter growing season by the end of this century. These induced adjustments can avoid up to 9% of the crop damages caused by climate change. However, our empirical analysis does not find clear evidence of long‐run response or accompanied input adjustments, suggesting potential for developing policies and tools to further aid the adaptive process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is not only an important ecological barrier in north China, but also an important agricultural production base and energy base in China, playing a very important role in China's economic and social development and ecological security. Under the combined actions of climate change and human activities, a series of ecological and environmental problems have emerged in the YRB, including degradation of glaciers and frozen soil, shortage of water resources, land desertification, aggravated soil and water loss, frequent floods and droughts, and reducing biodiversity. Warmer and wetter climate over the upper reaches and warmer and drier one in the middle and lower reaches have profoundly affected the ecological security of the YRB. In the future, the temperature in the YRB will continue to rise, extreme events will increase and the climate pattern of drought and water shortage will not be changed fundamentally, which will make the basin face more severe ecological security risks. For the current ecological problems and future ecological security risk challenges, it is necessary and urgent to take adaptive measures to deal with climate change and protect the ecological environment. The measures mainly include: strengthening the scientific research on the impact of climate change and extreme events on the ecological environment of the YRB and improving the ability of climate change risk management; strengthening the water conservation and protection in the upper reaches, the management of desert and soil erosion in the middle reaches and the ecological protection of water resources and wetlands in the lower reaches in the YRB and; collaborating with multiple departments to jointly tackle the ecological security challenges brought by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of heat stress reduces the labor capacity and hence poses a threat to socio‐economic development. The reliable projection of the changing climate and the development of sound adaptation strategies are thus desired for adapting to the decreasing labor productivity under climate change. In this study, an optimization modeling approach coupled with dynamical downscaling is proposed to design the optimal adaptation strategies for improving labor productivity under heat stress in China. The future changes in heat stress represented by the wet‐bulb globe temperature (WBGT) are projected with a spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km by a regional climate model (RCM) through the dynamical downscaling of its driving global climate model (GCM). Uncertain information such as system costs, environmental costs, and subsidies are also incorporated into the optimization process to provide reliable decision alternatives for improving labor productivity. Results indicate that the intensification of WBGT is overestimated by the GCM compared to the RCM. Such an overestimation can lead to more losses in working hours derived from the GCM than those from the RCM regardless of climate scenarios. Nevertheless, the overestimated heat stress does not alter the regional measures taken to adapt to decreasing labor productivity. Compared to inland regions, the monsoon‐affected regions tend to improve labor productivity by applying air conditioning rather than working overtime due to the cost differences. Consequently, decision‐makers need to optimally make a balance between working overtime and air conditioning measures to meet sustainable development goals. Key Points: An optimization model coupled with dynamical downscaling is developed to improve labor productivity under intensified heat stress in ChinaCivilian workers in inland regions will be more vulnerable to the intensified heat stress in a changing climateCompared to the regional climate model, the global climate model overestimates heat stress and thus exaggerates related system costs to recover from the working hour loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international community is paying more attention to climate change because a consensus has been reached that climate change has an adverse effect not only on the environment but also on agriculture. Therefore, in this study, present and future climate datasets (obtained from general circulation models) including atmospheric carbon concentration were used to assess the impact of climate change on grain production for an important base of China (Northeast). An empirical model has been developed using climate and other additional variables (effective irrigation area, fertilizer, and labor force) to assess the effect of climate change on grain production. The results revealed that maximum temperature is a key climate determinant in grain production of the study area. Atmospheric carbon concentration showed a significant impact on grain outputs in most of the cases. During the analysis, it was observed that precipitation displayed a declining trend while an effective irrigation area showed positive non-significant contribution to grain production. Analysis based on different representative concentration pathways exhibited that maximum temperature may contribute negatively to grain production in the future. Overall, the analysis showed that climate change has a significant contribution to grain production. In conclusion, the implications for future research and policymakers have been addressed. Particularly, the importance of considering regional differences in adaptation planning in agricultural regions was also considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unanticipated environmental shocks impact the livelihoods of many resource users around the world. These shocks are likely to be more unpredictable as the effects of climate change continue to mount. Yet how households adapt to these changing climatic conditions especially in the context of rapidly changing market conditions in most areas of the world, is poorly understood. These interactions have wide implications for both smallholder livelihoods and sustainable use of natural resources. In this paper, we examine the relationship between environmental shocks and stocking rates in livestock herds in the Inner Mongolian grasslands of northern China. We uniquely examine three types of shocks and how households adapt livestock production strategies in response to each. Separately and in aggregate, we look at three common shocks in Inner Mongolia: droughts, snowstorms, and locust outbreaks. We use a difference-in-differences approach to estimate changes in stocking rates among households that experience shocks versus those that do not with a panel dataset from 2009 to 2014 of 597 households. While we find no clear impact from locusts, our results suggest droughts and snowstorms have opposite effects: droughts are associated with increases in herd sizes, but snowstorms result in decreased herds. We suggest these differences are due to interactions between shocks, emerging options to borrow on credit, and livestock markets. Household adaptation to climate change will be strategic and take advantage of both available resources as well as market conditions. • Climate change is causing stronger and more unpredictable environmental shocks. • We use a difference-in-differences model to estimate the impact of shocks on stocking rate. • Drought relates to bigger herds; snowstorms relate to smaller herds. • Households adapt to shocks taking advantage of both available resources and market conditions. • Shaping well-functioning market may reduce opportunistic resource exploitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the historical relationship between weather fluctuations and mortality evolution in China. Using panel data on the annual provincial mortality rate and daily weather variables for the 1964–2008 period, we applied a dynamic model structure with sufficient controls to estimate the short-term effects of temperature shocks on China's mortality rate. Our main results show that an additional 1 °C rise in average temperature in a given year increases the annual mortality rate by an average of 3.2%. In addition, days with daily average temperatures exceeding 27 °C (30 °C) are associated with an increase in the annual mortality rate of nearly 0.1% (0.2%) or approximately 9,520 (19,040) additional deaths. In contrast, extremely cold days do not have these effects. By applying a hybrid model structure (the long difference approach) to examine the medium-term effects of temperature changes, we find that there is little evidence of overall adaptation to high temperatures when moving from the short term to the medium term. In addition, by introducing interactions between temperatures and potential modifiers such as access to doctors, hospital beds, air conditioning and refrigerators, we determined that only residential air conditioning played an important role in mitigating the temperature-mortality relationship. However, the penetration of air conditioning in China is still relatively low. These findings indicate that climate change could partially explain the historical phenomenon of China's rising mortality rate during the unprecedented economic boom experienced since the 1980s. • Increases in the number of extreme hot days increase annual mortality rate. • Little evidence of adaptation when moving from short run to medium run. • Residential air conditioning has played an important role in mitigating the temperature-mortality relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We assess the role of each form of capital on adoption of adaptation strategies. • Farmers' livelihood capital plays a key role in adopting adaptation strategies. • Natural and social capital have a positive effect on adopting adaptation measures. • Physical and human capital are inclined to promote farmers' adaptive behavior. Based on the sustainable livelihood framework, this paper explores the influence of each form of livelihood capital on the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies by farmers. A stratified random sampling technique was used to select 235 households in Wushen Banner, China, while the boosted regression tree model was used to analyze how different forms of livelihood capital are related to farmers' choices regarding climate change adaptation strategies. Our results show that most farmers in the study area have adopted adaptation strategies to cope with climate change. The farmers' livelihood capital plays an important role in their adoption of adaptation strategies. Specifically, natural capital and social capital have a positive impact on farmers' decisions about climate change adaptation strategies. Human capital and physical capital are inclined to promote farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation strategies. The results of this study are helpful for improving our understanding of how livelihood capital influences climate change adaptation strategies among farmers, which can provide implications for planning more effective adaptation programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and quantifying populations' adaptive genetic variation and their response to climate change are critical to reforestation's seed source selection, forest management decisions, and gene conservation. Landscape genomics combined with geographic and environmental information provide an opportunity to interrogate forest populations' genome‐wide variation for understanding the extent to which evolutionary forces shape past and contemporary populations' genetic structure, and identify those populations that may be most at risk under future climate change. Here, we used genotyping by sequencing to generate over 11,000 high‐quality variants from Platycladus orientalis range‐wide collection to evaluate its diversity and to predict genetic offset under future climate scenarios. Platycladus orientalis is a widespread conifer in China with significant ecological, timber, and medicinal values. We found population structure and evidences of isolation by environment, indicative of adaptation to local conditions. Gradient forest modeling identified temperature‐related variables as the most important environmental factors influencing genetic variation and predicted areas with higher risk under future climate change. This study provides an important reference for forest resource management and conservation for P. orientalis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2015, China’s national government initiated a Sponge City Programme to address its urban flood issues. A sponge city is a city built around the concept of managing water in an ecologically sustainable way. The intention is to improve urban resilience through rainwater capture, storage and use. This article applies a four-mode governance framework to analyze the programme. It identifies the strengths and weaknesses of the programme implementation and provides recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is to identify the major methods used by local farmers to adapt to the drought hazard and to examine factors influencing their decisions to adapt in Yongqiao District, China. A random sampling technique was used to select 200 households in Yongqiao, while descriptive statistics and binary logit models were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. The results show that most farmers in the study area were aware of climate change. They were taking measures to protect their livelihoods against perceived change in climate. Results indicate that factors explaining farmers' adaptation choices include gender, the level of education, farming experience, farm size, household income, and perceptions of climate change impacts. The findings of this study can help decision-makers to design appropriate adaptation policies to cope with and adapt in drought situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the dynamics of household vulnerability during the past 30 years within three different social-ecological upland systems in Lijiang, Yunnan. Interviews were conducted to construct coupled human-environmental timelines to facilitate the understanding of livelihood dynamics in the context of more general changes that constitute both constraints and opportunities. The results indicate that significant livelihood changes including specialization, diversification and migration have been primarily driven by socio-political influences. Overall vulnerability of households has decreased differently across villages. Nevertheless, climate change is a concern as households perceive increasing temperature, declining precipitation and unpredictable extreme events. In the future, households' vulnerability might increase since important components of current livelihoods remain climate sensitive. Moreover, environmentally destructive practices such as illegal logging might reinforce the negative impacts of climate change and thus undermine sustainable adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has and will continue to exert significant effects on social economy, natural environment, and human life. Research on the climatic suitability of crops is critical for mitigating and adapting to the negative impacts of climate change on crop production. In the study, we developed the climate suitability model of maize and investigated the climate suitability of summer maize during the base period (1981–2010) and two future periods of 2031–2060 (2040s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) in the North China Plain (NCP) based on BCC-CSM2-MR model (BCC) from the Coupled Model Comparison Program (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 245 and SSP585. The phenological shift of maize under future climate scenarios was simulated by the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM). The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSE) between observations and projections for sunshine suitability (SS), temperature suitability (ST), precipitation suitability (SP), and integrated climate suitability (SZ) during the whole growth period were 0.069, 0.072, 0.057, and 0.040, respectively. Overall, the BCC projections for climate suitability were in suitable consistency with the observations in the NCP. During 1981–2010, the SP, ST, and SZ were high in the north of the NCP and low in the south. The SP, ST, and SZ showed a downward trend under all the future climate scenarios in most areas of NCP while the SS increased. Therein, the change range of SP and SS was 0–0.1 under all the future climate scenarios. The ST declined by 0.1–0.2 in the future except for the decrease of more than 0.3 under the SSP585 scenario in the 2080s. The decrease in SZ in the 2040s and 2080s under both SSP scenarios varied from 0 to 0.2. Moreover, the optimum area decreases greatly under future scenarios while the suitable area increases significantly. Adjusting sowing data (SD) would have essential impacts on climate suitability. To some extent, delaying SD was beneficial to improve the climate suitability of summer maize in the NCP, especially under the SSP585 scenario in the 2080s. Our findings can not only provide data support for summer maize production to adapt to climate change but also help to propose agricultural management measures to cope with future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the crop trial data during 1981-2009 at 57 agricultural experimental stations across the North Eastern China Plain ( NECP) and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River ( MLRYR), we investigated how major climate variables had changed and how the climate change had affected crop growth and yield in a setting in which agronomic management practices were taken based on actual weather. We found a significant warming trend during rice growing season, and a general decreasing trend in solar radiation ( SRD) in the MLRYR during 1981-2009. Rice transplanting, heading, and maturity dates were generally advanced, but the heading and maturity dates of single rice in the MLRYR ( YZ_ SR) and NECP ( NE_ SR) were delayed. Climate warming had a negative impact on growth period lengths at about 80% of the investigated stations. Nevertheless, the actual growth period lengths of YZ_ SR and NE_ SR, as well as the actual length of reproductive growth period ( RGP) of early rice in the MLRYR ( YZ_ ER), were generally prolonged due to adoption of cultivars with longer growth period to obtain higher yield. In contrast, the actual growth period length of late rice in the MLRYR ( YZ_ LR) was shortened by both climate warming and adoption of early mature cultivars to prevent cold damage and obtain higher yield. During 1981-2009, climate warming and decrease in SRD changed the yield of YZ_ ER by −0.59 to 2.4%; climate warming during RGP increased the yield of YZ_ LR by 8.38-9.56%; climate warming and decrease in SRD jointly reduced yield of YZ_ SR by 7.14-9.68%; climate warming and increase in SRD jointly increased the yield of NE_ SR by 1.01-3.29%. Our study suggests that rice production in China has been affected by climate change, yet at the same time changes in varieties continue to be the major factor driving yield and growing period trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature in global warming indicated that the daily minimum temperature ( T) has risen more than twice as fast as the daily maximum temperature ( T) during the 20th century. Most researchers have focused on how the crops respond to daily mean temperature, whereas few controlled experiments were carried out to investigate how the crops respond to the T rise. In particular, no experiment research has reported on how crops respond to the higher night temperature, which was the main trend in the climate warming. Taking winter wheat as the test crop, we investigated how the winter wheat growth and yields responded to the higher night temperature. In the field experiments, infrared heaters were used to increase higher night temperature (HNT) by about 2.5°C in contrast to the normal night temperature (CK) in two whole growth durations of winter wheat in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 in North China. The results indicated that, compared to the CK treatment, winter wheat yield did not decline in HNT treatment, which increased temperatures by 2.0-2.5°C in both Warmer year (WY) and Colder year (CY). Furthermore, winter wheat yield in CY increased significantly in HNT treatment. HNT treatment in CY could significantly promote tillering and increase the effective panicles, which increased grain yield significantly (by more than 30% compared with CK). HNT treatment in CY contributed to an increase in the effective panicles and Kernels significantly, although making a significant reduction in 1000-grain weight, but did not lead to the yield decline. Under the HNT treatment, the whole growth duration of the winter wheat was shortened and the phenological dates were earlier except for the beginning of overwintering; the beginnings of the overwintering phase were postponed substantially and the ends of the overwintering phase were ahead of date compared to CK, which shortened the duration of overwintering considerably. We draw on our own studies to show examples of higher night temperature impact on winter wheat in a relatively cold year and relatively warm year in North China. Our results refer to winter wheat in North China, not all main winter wheat producing regions, in Huang-Huai and Southwest of China. Some uncertainties of our predictions derive from fast progress in crop breeding, the variability of climate, and the role of adaptive actions in the future. As expected, the adaptation measures should be considered to cope with the impacts of global warming on crops, and further research and assessments should be conducted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The creation and funding of international institutions for adaptation to climate change involve questions of justice. Should unconditional assistance flow to governments or should assistance be provided in ways that ensure benefits flow to vulnerable populations? Do major emitters of greenhouse gases have special obligations to assist the developing world adapt to climate change? Which actors are the proper bearers of obligations to assist? After reviewing both state-centred and cosmopolitan arguments about adaptation assistance, it is argued that neither philosophical perspective justifies the statist design of existing institutions. A more just and effective international agreement on climate change adaptation must achieve a higher degree of consistency between the principles of burden sharing applied internationally and domestically. Adaptation assistance should target human welfare rather than provide compensation to states, and should be funded through measures that impose similar emission costs on affluent people in both developed and developing countries. These arguments are briefly demonstrated using the case of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integration of perennial grass species into the current food production systems, especially in the agropastoral regions worldwide, may produce multiple benefits including, among others, a more stable productivity and a smaller eco-environmental footprint. However, one of the fundamental challenges facing the large-scale adoption of such grass species is their ability to withstand the vagaries of winter in these regions. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the winter hardiness of 50 indigenous Chinese cultivars of alfalfa, a high-quality leguminous perennial grass, in comparison with six introduced U.S. cultivars in a multi-site field experiment in northern China. Our results reveal that indigenous cultivars have stronger winter hardiness than introduced cultivars. Cultivars native in the north performed better than southern cultivars, suggesting that suitability evaluation is an unavoidable step proceeding any regional implementations. Our results also show that the metric we used to assess alfalfa's winter hardiness, the average score index (ASI), produced more consistent results than another more-widely used metric of winter survival rate (WSR). These findings offer a systematic field evidence that supports regional cropping system adjustment and production system betterment to ensure food security under climate change in the region and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]