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Climate is an essential element in agricultural production, and climate change inevitably have an impact on agriculture. Assessing the economic consequences of climate change requires comprehensive assessments of the impact chain from climate to crops and the economy. In our previous study, we derived a dose‐response function to estimate the response of crop yields to climate variables through a systematic review. In this paper, a dynamic multiregional input‐output model is established to assess the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production on China's regional and sectoral levels. The results show that (1) the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) which implies the resulting economic cascade effect (ECE) that amounts to 17.8% of China's GDP. At the end of 21st century, the ECE is −0.1% to 13.6% of GDP (negative values indicate economic gains) without considering CO2 fertilization effect, of which the ECE in the most pessimistic pathway are equivalent to the total agricultural output in China today. (2) Regional‐level results show an uneven distribution of economic impact in China, which is related to the regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more ECE caused by climate change than the most developed region. (3) Sector‐level results show that agriculture is still the main affected sector, but in developed regions, manufacturing and services also bear part of the ECE. Plain Language Summary: Evidence from numerous studies has confirmed the impact of climate change on agriculture. This paper assesses the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production under climate change in China. We find that the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product which implies the resulting economic cascade effect that amounts to 17.8% of total gross domestic product. The most pessimistic estimate of the economic impacts in the 2090s is equivalent to China's total agricultural output today without considering CO2 fertilization effect of climate change. The economic impacts suffered by different regions of China are related to regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences more economic damage from climate change than the most developed region. In addition to the agricultural sector, manufacturing and services are expected to experience part of the impacts, especially in developed regions. This paper hopes to provide data support for a comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts in different regions of China by assessing the economic consequences. Key Points: The economic cascading effect of climate change is approximately 18 times larger than its direct damageThe least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more economic impacts than the most developed regionThe decline in agricultural output also affects manufacturing and services through trade networks, especially in developed regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) are significant, and differ across regions and crops. The substantial regional differences will induce changes in agricultural interregional trade pattern. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the climate change impacts on China’s agricultural interregional trade pattern. Design/methodology/approach – The paper will use the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agricultural interregional trade flows. The CGE model consists of seven Chinese regions and the rest of the world and six commodities. Findings – The results indicate that northwest, south, central, and northeast PRC will see increases in the outflows of agricultural products in 2030 and 2050. Conversely, outflows from east, north, and southwest PRC will decrease. Agricultural products handling and transportation facilities need to be repositioned to address the changes in agricultural trade flows. Originality/value – Studies on the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agriculture have been increasing. To the best of our knowledge, however, no previous studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agricultural interregional trade flows. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China''s agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13,379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]