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This paper makes a significant contribution to understanding the logic of deforestation in Northern Myanmar and connects global trends and regional political economy with local environmental changes. Methodologically, through a combination of remote sensing GIS analysis, for which we use a newly available Myanmar Forest Change dataset produced by TerraPulse and the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, as well as on-the-ground field research observations and interviews with farmers, this paper examines how the expansion of maize plantations in the northern part of Myanmar has implications for deforestation in the region. It argues that a combination of global commodity price shock around 2011-2012 plus easy market access to China generated strong incentives for local farmers to increase the cultivation of maize. The paper contributes to how we understand the environmental impacts of Chinese demands for agricultural products in Southeast Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Climate is an essential element in agricultural production, and climate change inevitably have an impact on agriculture. Assessing the economic consequences of climate change requires comprehensive assessments of the impact chain from climate to crops and the economy. In our previous study, we derived a dose‐response function to estimate the response of crop yields to climate variables through a systematic review. In this paper, a dynamic multiregional input‐output model is established to assess the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production on China's regional and sectoral levels. The results show that (1) the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) which implies the resulting economic cascade effect (ECE) that amounts to 17.8% of China's GDP. At the end of 21st century, the ECE is −0.1% to 13.6% of GDP (negative values indicate economic gains) without considering CO2 fertilization effect, of which the ECE in the most pessimistic pathway are equivalent to the total agricultural output in China today. (2) Regional‐level results show an uneven distribution of economic impact in China, which is related to the regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more ECE caused by climate change than the most developed region. (3) Sector‐level results show that agriculture is still the main affected sector, but in developed regions, manufacturing and services also bear part of the ECE. Plain Language Summary: Evidence from numerous studies has confirmed the impact of climate change on agriculture. This paper assesses the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production under climate change in China. We find that the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product which implies the resulting economic cascade effect that amounts to 17.8% of total gross domestic product. The most pessimistic estimate of the economic impacts in the 2090s is equivalent to China's total agricultural output today without considering CO2 fertilization effect of climate change. The economic impacts suffered by different regions of China are related to regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences more economic damage from climate change than the most developed region. In addition to the agricultural sector, manufacturing and services are expected to experience part of the impacts, especially in developed regions. This paper hopes to provide data support for a comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts in different regions of China by assessing the economic consequences. Key Points: The economic cascading effect of climate change is approximately 18 times larger than its direct damageThe least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more economic impacts than the most developed regionThe decline in agricultural output also affects manufacturing and services through trade networks, especially in developed regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) are significant, and differ across regions and crops. The substantial regional differences will induce changes in agricultural interregional trade pattern. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the climate change impacts on China’s agricultural interregional trade pattern. Design/methodology/approach – The paper will use the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agricultural interregional trade flows. The CGE model consists of seven Chinese regions and the rest of the world and six commodities. Findings – The results indicate that northwest, south, central, and northeast PRC will see increases in the outflows of agricultural products in 2030 and 2050. Conversely, outflows from east, north, and southwest PRC will decrease. Agricultural products handling and transportation facilities need to be repositioned to address the changes in agricultural trade flows. Originality/value – Studies on the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agriculture have been increasing. To the best of our knowledge, however, no previous studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agricultural interregional trade flows. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A primary goal of studying climate change adaptation is to identify the adaptation options that are used to improve crop productivity or reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Many of the adjustments in farm management that farmers adopt do not necessarily represent true adaptations to climate change, an issue often ignored in existing literature and resulting in a risk that policy makers are misled to think that adaptation is easier than it actually is, and thereby underestimate the challenge that climate change presents. The overall goal of this study is to identify whether farmers’ adoptions are enhancing food production and adapting to climate change. The identification uses a plot-level panel from a survey of 619 rural households in three provinces in China and county-level weather data. With the use of plot and county-by-year fixed effects as well as instrumental variable approaches, our estimates show that the autonomous adoptions are not effective in improving crop yields. This implies that farmers’ adoptions cannot be always considered adaptations to climate change. The paper provides a possible explanation for the results and concludes with policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of future climate change and the corresponding adaptation activities on grain production and its regional distribution in China. Design/methodology/approach - This paper applied the Chinese Agricultural Policy Analysis model, in combination with the findings from agronomic literature with highly detailed agricultural census data, to conduct equilibrium analysis under alternative impact (seasonal drought and climate warming) scenarios and adaptation scenarios (promoting water-saving irrigation, introducing new varieties, and the integrated) associated with climate change. Findings - Simulation results indicate that climate change-induced seasonal drought and the resulting yield reduction will incur substantial losses to China's grain production (by ~8 percent at a national scale). The application of water saving techniques can be an effective solution to seasonal drought. Introducing new varieties will increase the combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption will increase combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption constitute an effective approach to offsetting the negative effects of climate change on grain production. Research limitations/implications - Simulation results indicate that climate change-induced seasonal drought and the resulting sown area reduction will incur substantial losses to China's grain production by approximately 8 percent, despite farmers' adaptation activities of switching from water use-intensive crops to drought-tolerant crops to mitigate this negative effect. The application of water saving techniques is an effective solution to seasonal drought; it can lead to a nationwide increase in the sown area by 3.48 percent and in the grain production by 4.15 percent. Introducing new varieties will increase grain outputs and change the spatial distribution of crop production across the country. The combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption will increase the national grain production by 19.6 percent, and thus constitute an effective approach to offsetting the negative effects of climate change on grain production. Originality/value - Results from this study provide practical implications formulate strategies in response to climate change. Central government should reinforce the policies such as new varieties promotion and improve the subsidy method to guide the introduction of new varieties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial vegetation is one of the most important components of the Earth's land surface. Variations in terrestrial vegetation directly impact the Earth system's balance of material and energy. This paper describes detected variations in vegetation activity at a national scale for China based on nearly 30 years of remote sensing data derived from NOAA/AVHRR (1982-2006) and MODIS (2001-2009). Vegetation activity is analyzed for four regions covering agriculture, forests, grasslands, and China's Northwest region with sparse vegetation cover (including regions without vegetation). Relationships between variations in vegetation activity and climate change as well as agricultural production are also explored. The results show that vegetation activity has generally increased across large areas, especially during the most recent decade. The variations in vegetation activity have been driven primarily by human factors, especially in the southern forest region and the Northwest region with sparse vegetation cover. The results further show that the variations in vegetation activity have influenced agricultural production, but with a certain time lag. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water footprint of production can be used to identify pressure on national or regional water resources generated by production activities. Water stress is defined as the ratio of water use (the difference between a regional water footprint of production and a green water footprint) to renewable water resources available in a country or region. Water stress can be used to identify pressure on national or regional water resources generated by production activities. This paper estimates the water footprint of production and the water stress in China during the years 1985-2009. The result shows that China's water footprint of production increased from 781.58 × 109 m3 in 1985 to 1109.76 × 109 m3 in 2009. Mega-cities and regions with less agriculture production due to local climatic conditions (Tibet and Qinghai) had lower water footprint of production, while the provinces (Henan, Shandong) with higher agriculture production had higher footprint. Provinces with severe water stress increased from 6 in 1985 to 9 in 2009. High to severe water stress exists mainly in mega-cities and agricultural areas located in the downstream areas of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River in North and Central China. The outlook for water resources pressure in China is not optimistic, with areas of stress expanding from northern to southern of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract With climate change and the over-exploitation of fossil fuels, the advantages of using bioenergy are becoming increasingly obvious and many countries and regions around the world are committed to building biogas plants to produce clean energy. This article examines Henan Province, which features agricultural production and biogas projects typical of China. The aim was to identify the problems associated with the use of current agricultural waste in biogas production and provide suggestions for future biogas developments via comparisons of the potential of agricultural wastes with biogas project construction. Straw and manure volumes were analyzed by using crop yields and livestock production to calculate the biogas potential and the status quo was reflected through biogas project data. Subsequently, biogas potential and projects were analyzed from quantitative and spatial perspectives and a benefit evaluation was conducted. The results indicate that Henan Province has abundant straw and manure resources with large biogas potential, and that making good use of these wastes would have a good emission reduction effect and economic advantages, but there are presently large differences between the actual production and biogas potential. This paper analyzes the possible causes of this discrepancy, including resource utilization and biogas project operations. Lastly, countermeasures were proposed, such as developing matching technologies, improving relevant policies, and improving ecological-economic benefits to enhance future biogas project development. Graphical abstract fx1 Highlights • We choose Henan Province which is typical of agriculture and biogas industries. • Straw and manure volume are used to calculate biogas potential. • There is a significant difference between biogas potential and actual production. • Resource use and biogas project management issues cause these inconsistencies. • Technology, policy, and ecological-economic countermeasures are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China''s agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13,379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents an agent-based simulation (ABS) and cellular automata (CA) coupled model to simulate the spatial evolution of the population of China over the past 2000 years. In the model, agents are used to simulate individuals who live in a geographic environment represented by the CA. The choice to migrate is influenced by climate change, potential agricultural productivity change, and waves of mass migrations. Using the simulation, we can observe the spatial evolution of the population, as well as the shift of the population center of gravity, and we can analyze the driving forces of these changing spatial patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide emission and greenhouse gas emissions are considered core issue in the world that influence agricultural production and also cause climate change. The present study seeks to investigate the linkage of methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, carbon dioxide emission, and greenhouse gas emissions with agricultural gross domestic product in China. The long-term association was checked by using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, fully modified least squares method, and canonical cointegrating regression analysis. The results from long-run analysis exposed that carbon dioxide emission and greenhouse gas emissions have positive coefficients that demonstrate the long-run linkage with the agricultural gross domestic product having p values of 0.5709 and 0.3751, respectively. Similarly, results also revealed that agricultural methane emissions and agricultural nitrous oxide emissions have a negative association with the agricultural gross domestic product having p values of 0.1737 and 0.0559. China is a huge emitter of CO2 emission and greenhouse gas emissions. Possible conservative policies are required to form the Chinese government to tackle this challenge to decrease CO2 emission in order to increase agricultural production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Agricultural food production in China is deeply vulnerable to extreme droughts. Although there are many studies to evaluate this issue from different aspects, comprehensive assessments with full consideration of climate change, crop rotations, irrigation effects, and socioeconomic factors in broad scales have not been well addressed. Considering both the probability of drought occurrence and the consequential yield losses, here we propose an integrated approach for assessing past and future agricultural drought risks that relies on multimodel ensemble simulations calibrated for rice, maize, and wheat (RMW) in China. Our results show that irrigation has reduced drought‐related yield losses by 31 ± 2%; the largest reductions in food production were primarily attributable to socioeconomic factors rather than droughts during 1955–2014. Unsustainable water management, especially groundwater management, could potentially cause disastrous consequences in both food production and water supply in extreme events. Our simulations project a rise of 2.5~3.3% in average rice, maize, and wheat productivity before 2050 but decrease thereafter if climate warming continues. The frequency of extreme agricultural droughts in China is projected to increase under all examined Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). A current 100‐year drought is projected to occur once every 30 years under RCP 2.6, once every 13 years under RCP 4.5, and once every 5 years under RCP 8.5. This increased occurrence of severe droughts would double the rate of drought‐induced yield losses in the largest warming scenario. Policies for future food security should prioritize sustainable intensification and conservation of groundwater, as well as geographically balanced water resource and food production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A preliminary conceptual framework is proposed for the estimation of the costs of desertification. This framework consists of assessment of the extent and severity of desertification, identification of various impacts and valuation of the direct and indirect costs of desertification. Based on this framework, three well‐cited studies of the costs of desertification in China were critically reviewed. Limitations in these studies include double counting, confusion of short‐term and long‐term costs and the lack of necessary adjustment of price parameters. Refinement of the estimates indicates that these limitations have caused serious overestimation or underestimation of the costs of desertification. To achieve more reliable and useful estimates, future studies need to overcome the limitations mentioned in the preceding texts and use the latest available data on desertification and its various impacts. A more comprehensive conceptual framework that includes the valuation of dryland ecosystem services could also be developed to guide future studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural production is a complex interaction between human and natural environment, making agriculture both significantly responsible and vulnerable to climate change. China, whose socioeconomy is fundamentally dependent on agriculture, is already experiencing climate-change-related issues that threaten food security and sustainable development. Climate change mitigation and adaptation are of great concern to ensure food security for the growing population and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. A questionnaire survey was conducted in Henan Province, China to assess agronomic practices of smallholder farmers, adaptation strategies and how climate change awareness and perceptions influence the farmers' choice of agronomic practices. The results showed that the vast majority of farmers owned <10 Chinese Mu (0.7 ha) and nearly all farmers' relied on intensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides to increase yield at the detriment of environment. However, farmers who were aware of climate change had adopted agronomic practices that reduce impacts of climate change. Information about climate change, lack of incentives, lack of credit facilities and small farm sizes were major hindrance to adaptation and adoption of farming practices that can reduce impacts of climate change. This study recommends that research findings should be disseminated to farmers in timely and appropriate ways. The central government should formulate policies to include subsidies and incentives for farmers to motivate adoption of eco-friendly agronomic practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of low-carbon economy was introduced firstly, and then patterns and principles of circular agriculture were analyzed, finally noticeable problems during circular agricultural development were put forward, such as increasing the output of circular agriculture and farmers' income, improving the market system of agricultural products, and making an effort to improve the ability of circular agriculture to adapt to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]