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Fluctuations in environmental parameters are increasingly being recognized as essential features of any habitat. The quantification of whether environmental fluctuations are prevalently predictable or unpredictable is remarkably relevant to understanding the evolutionary responses of organisms. However, when characterizing the relevant features of natural habitats, ecologists typically face two problems: (1) gathering long-term data and (2) handling the hard-won data. This paper takes advantage of the free access to long-term recordings of remote sensing data (27 years, Landsat TM/ETM+) to assess a set of environmental models for estimating environmental predictability. The case study included 20 Mediterranean saline ponds and lakes, and the focal variable was the water-surface area. This study first aimed to produce a method for accurately estimating the water-surface area from satellite images. Saline ponds can develop salt-crusted areas that make it difficult to distinguish between soil and water. This challenge was addressed using a novel pipeline that combines band ratio water indices and the short near-infrared band as a salt filter. The study then extracted the predictable and unpredictable components of variation in the water-surface area. Two different approaches, each showing variations in the parameters, were used to obtain the stochastic variation around a regular pattern with the objective of dissecting the effect of assumptions on predictability estimations. The first approach, which is based on Colwell’s predictability metrics, transforms the focal variable into a nominal one. The resulting discrete categories define the relevant variations in the water-surface area. In the second approach, we introduced General Additive Model (GAM) fitting as a new metric for quantifying predictability. Both approaches produced a wide range of predictability for the studied ponds. Some model assumptions–which are considered very different a priori–had minor effects, whereas others produced predictability estimations that showed some degree of divergence. We hypothesize that these diverging estimations of predictability reflect the effect of fluctuations on different types of organisms. The fluctuation analysis described in this manuscript is applicable to a wide variety of systems, including both aquatic and non-aquatic systems, and will be valuable for quantifying and characterizing predictability, which is essential within the expected global increase in the unpredictability of environmental fluctuations. We advocate that a priori information for organisms of interest should be used to select the most suitable metrics for estimating predictability, and we provide some guidelines for this approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

Abstract: In recent years, fuzzy models have been acknowledged as a suitable approach for species distribution modelling due to their transparency and their ability to incorporate the ecological gradient theory. Specifically, the overlapping class boundaries of a fuzzy model are similar to the transitions between different environmental conditions. However, the need for ecological expert knowledge is an important constraint when applying fuzzy species distribution models. Moreover, the consistency of the ecological preferences of some fish species across different rivers has been widely contested. Recent research has shown that data-driven fuzzy models may solve this ‘knowledge acquisition bottleneck’ and this paper is a further contribution. The aim was to analyse the brown trout (Salmo trutta fario L.) habitat preferences based on a data-driven fuzzy modelling technique and to compare the resulting fuzzy models with a commonly applied modelling technique, Random Forests. A heuristic nearest ascent hill-climbing algorithm for fuzzy rule optimisation and Random Forests were applied to analyse the ecological preferences of brown trout in 93 mesohabitats. No significant differences in model performance were observed between the optimal fuzzy model and the Random Forests model and both approaches selected river width, the cover index and flow velocity as the most important variables describing brown trout habitat suitability. Further, the fuzzy model combined ecological relevance with reasonable interpretability, whereas the transparency of the Random Forests model was limited. This paper shows that fuzzy models may be a valid approach for species distribution modelling and that their performance is comparable to that of state-of-the-art modelling techniques like Random Forests. Fuzzy models could therefore be a valuable decision support tool for river managers and enhance communication between stakeholders. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The capability of some inversion algorithms to estimate surface rain rate at the midlatitude basin scale from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data is analyzed. For this purpose, an extended database has been derived from coincident SSM/I images and half-hourly rain rate data obtained from a rain gauge network, placed along the Tiber River basin in Central Italy, during nine years (from 1992 to 2000). The database has been divided in a training set, to calibrate the empirical algorithms, and in a validation one, to compare the results of the considered techniques. The proposed retrieval methods are based on both empirical and physical approaches. Among the empirical methods, a regression, an artificial feedforward neural network, and a Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) inversion have been considered. Three algorithms available in the literature are also included as benchmarks. As physical algorithms, the MAP method and the minimum mean square estimator have been used. Moreover, in order to test the behavior of the algorithms with different kinds of precipitation, a classification of rainy events, based on some statistical parameters derived from rain gauge measurements, has been performed. From this classification, an attempt to identify the type of event from radiometric data has been carried out. The purposes of this paper are to determine whether the use of an extended training set, referred to a limited geographical area, can improve the SSM/I skill in rain detection and estimation and, mainly, to confirm the validity of the physical approach adopted in previous works. It will be shown that, among all the estimators, the neural network presents the best performances and that the physical techniques provide results only slightly worse than those given by empirical methods, but with the well-known advantage of an easy application to different geographical zones and different sensors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Improving regional estimates of actual evapotranspiration (λΕ) in water-limited regions located at climatic transition zones is critical. This study assesses an λΕ model (PT-JPL model) based on downscaling potential evapotranspiration according to multiple stresses at daily time-scale in two of these regions using MSG–SEVIRI (surface temperature and albedo) and MODIS products (NDVI, LAI and fPAR ). An open woody savanna in the Sahel (Mali) and a Mediterranean grassland (Spain) were selected as test sites with Eddy Covariance data used for evaluation. The PT-JPL model was modified to run at a daily time step and the outputs from eight algorithms differing in the input variables and also in the formulation of the biophysical constraints (stresses) were compared with the λΕ from the Eddy Covariance. Model outputs were also compared with other modeling studies at similar global dryland ecosystems. The novelty of this paper is the computation of a key model parameter, the soil moisture constraint, relying on the concept of apparent thermal inertia (fSM-ATI ) computed with surface temperature and albedo observations. Our results showed that fSM-ATI from both in-situ and satellite data produced satisfactory results for λΕ at the Sahelian savanna, comparable to parameterizations using field-measured Soil Water Content (SWC) with r2 greater than 0.80. In the Mediterranean grasslands however, with much lower daily λE values, model results were not as good as in the Sahel (r2 =0.57–0.31) but still better than reported values from more complex models applied at the site such as the Two Source Model (TSM) or the Penman–Monteith Leuning model (PML). PT-JPL-daily model with a soil moisture constraint based on apparent thermal inertia, fSM-ATI offers great potential for regionalization as no field-calibrations are required and water vapor deficit estimates, required in the original version, are not necessary, being air temperature and the available energy (Rn-G) the only input variables required, apart from routinely available satellite products. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The availability of images with very high spatial and spectral resolution from airborne sensors or those aboard satellites is opening new possibilities for the analysis of fine-scale vegetation, such as the identification and classification of individual tree species. To evaluate the potential of these images, a study was carried out to compare the spatial, spectral and temporal resolution between QuickBird and ADS40-SH52 imagery, in order to discriminate and identify, within the mixed Mediterranean forest, individuals of the Iberian wild pear (Pyrus bourgaeana). This is a typical species of the Mediterranean forest, but its biology and ecology are still poorly known. The images were subjected to different correction processes and data were homogenized. Vegetation classes and individual trees were identified on the images, which were classified from two types of supervised classification (Maximum Likelihood and Support Vector Machines) on a pixel-by-pixel basis. The classification values were satisfactory. The classifiers were compared, and Support Vector Machines was the algorithm that provided the best results in terms of overall accuracy. The QuickBird image showed higher overall accuracy (86.16%) when the Support Vector Machines algorithm was applied. In addition, individuals of Iberian wild pear were discriminated with probability of over 55%, when the Maximum Likelihood algorithm was applied. From the perspective of improving the sampling effort, these results are a starting point for facilitating research on the abundance, distribution and spatial structure of P. bourgaeana at different scales, in order to quantify the conservation status of this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) is a EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) program, designed to deliver satellite products of hydrological interest (precipitation, soil moisture and snow parameters) over the European and Mediterranean region to research and operations users worldwide. Six satellite precipitation algorithms and concomitant precipitation products are the responsibility of various agencies in Italy. Two of these algorithms have been designed for maximum accuracy by restricting their inputs to measurements from conical and cross-track scanning passive microwave (PMW) radiometers mounted on various low Earth orbiting satellites. They have been developed at the Italian National Research Council/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate in Rome (CNR/ISAC-Rome), and are providing operational retrievals of surface rain rate and its phase properties. Each of these algorithms is physically based, however, the first of these, referred to as the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database (CDRD) algorithm, uses a Bayesian-based solution solver, while the second, referred to as the PMW Neural-net Precipitation Retrieval (PNPR) algorithm, uses a neural network-based solution solver. Herein we first provide an overview of the two initial EU research and applications programs that motivated their initial development, EuroTRMM and EURAINSAT (European Satellite Rainfall Analysis and Monitoring at the Geostationary Scale), and the current H-SAF program that provides the framework for their operational use and continued development. We stress the relevance of the CDRD and PNPR algorithms and their precipitation products in helping secure the goals of H-SAF's scientific and operations agenda, the former helpful as a secondary calibration reference to other algorithms in H-SAF's complete mix of algorithms. Descriptions of the algorithms' designs are provided including a few examples of their performance. This aspect of the development of the two algorithms is placed in the context of what we refer to as the TRMM era, which is the era denoting the active and ongoing period of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) that helped inspire their original development. In 2015, the ISAC-Rome precipitation algorithms will undergo a transformation beginning with the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, particularly the GPM Core Satellite technologies. A few years afterward, the first pair of imaging and sounding Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellites will be launched, providing additional technological advances. Various of the opportunities presented by the GPM Core and MTG satellites for improving the current CDRD and PNPR precipitation retrieval algorithms, as well as extending their product capability, are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is presented to estimate 10 m wind speed and direction distributions at high spatial resolutions using a weather type based approach combined with a mesoscale model. Daily 850 hPa wind fields (predictors) from ERA40 reanalysis and daily 10 m wind speeds and directions (predictands) measured at 78 meteorological stations over France are used to build and validate the downscaling algorithm over the period 1974-2002. First of all, the daily 850 hPa wind fields are classified into a large number of wind classes and one day is randomly chosen inside each wind class. Simulations with a non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model are then performed for the selected days over three interactively nested domains over France, with finest horizontal mesh size of 3 km over the Mediterranean area. The initial and coupling fields are derived from the ERA40 reanalysis. Finally, the 10 m wind distributions are reconstructed by weighting each simulation by the corresponding wind class frequency. Evaluation and uncertainty assessment of each step of the procedure is performed. This method is then applied for a climate change impact study: daily 850 hPa wind fields from 14 general circulation models of the CMIP3 multimodel dataset are used to determine evolutions in the frequency of occurrence of the wind classes and to assess the potential evolution of the wind resources in France. Two time periods are focused on: a historical period (1971-2000) from the climate of the twentieth century experiment and a future period (2046-2065) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) experiment. Evolution of the 10 m winds in France and associated uncertainties are discussed. Significant changes are depicted, in particular a decrease of the wind speed in the Mediterranean area. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]