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This study investigates, through regional climate modelling, the surface mass concentration and AOD (aerosol optical depth) evolution of the various (anthropogenic and natural) aerosols over the Euro-Mediterranean region between the end of the 20th century and the mid-21st century. The direct aerosol radiative forcing (DRF) as well as the future Euro-Mediterranean climate sensitivity to aerosols have also been analysed. Different regional climate simulations were carried out with the CNRM-ALADIN63 regional climate model, driven by the global CNRM-ESM2-1 Earth system model (used in CMIP6) and coupled to the TACTIC (Tropospheric Aerosols for ClimaTe In CNRM) interactive aerosol scheme. These simulations follow several future scenarios called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1-1.9, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5), which have been chosen to analyse a wide range of possible future scenarios in terms of aerosol or particle precursor emissions. Between the historical and the future period, results show a total AOD decrease between 30 % and 40 % over Europe for the three scenarios, mainly due to the sulfate AOD decrease (between -85 and -93 %), that is partly offset by the nitrate and ammonium particles AOD increase (between +90 and +120 %). According to these three scenarios, nitrate aerosols become the largest contributor to the total AOD during the future period over Europe, with a contribution between 43.5 % and 47.5 %. It is important to note that one of the precursors of nitrate and ammonium aerosols, nitric acid, has been implemented in the model as a constant climatology over time. Concerning natural aerosols, their contribution to the total AOD increases slightly between the two periods. The different evolution of aerosols therefore impacts their DRF, with a significant sulfate DRF decrease between 2.4 and 2.8 W m -2 and a moderate nitrate and ammonium DRF increase between 1.3 and 1.5 W m -2 , depending on the three scenarios over Europe. These changes, which are similar under the different scenarios, explain about 65 % of the annual shortwave radiation change but also about 6 % (in annual average) of the warming expected over Europe by the middle of the century. This study shows, with SSP 5-8.5, that the extra warming attributable to the anthropogenic aerosol evolution over Central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula during the summer period is due to "aerosol–radiation" as well as "aerosol–cloud" interaction processes. The extra warming of about 0.2 ∘ C over Central Europe is explained by a surface radiation increase of 5.8 W m -2 over this region, due to both a surface aerosol DRF decrease of 4.4 W m -2 associated with a positive effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (ERFari) of 2.7 W m -2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and a cloud optical depth (COD) decrease of 1.3. In parallel, the simulated extra warming of 0.2 ∘ C observed over the Iberian Peninsula is due to a COD decrease of 1.3, leading to a positive effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) of 2.6 W m -2 at the TOA but also to an atmospheric dynamics change leading to a cloud cover decrease of about 1.7 % and drier air in the lower layers, which is a signature of the semi-direct forcing. This study thus highlights the necessity of taking into account the evolution of aerosols in future regional climate simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: For more than five decades, the Mediterranean Sea has been identified as a region of so‐called thermohaline circulation, namely, of basin‐scale overturning driven by surface heat and freshwater exchanges. The commonly accepted view is that of an interaction of zonal and meridional conveyor belts that sink at intermediate or deep convection sites. However, the connection between convection and sinking in the overturning circulation remains unclear. Here we use a multidecadal eddy‐permitting numerical simulation and glider transport measurements to diagnose the location and physical drivers of this sinking. We find that most of the net sinking occurs within 50 km of the boundary, away from open sea convection sites. Vorticity dynamics provides the physical rationale for this sinking near topography: only dissipation at the boundary is able to balance the vortex stretching induced by any net sinking, which is hence prevented in the open ocean. These findings corroborate previous idealized studies and conceptually replace the historical offshore conveyor belts by boundary sinking rings. They challenge the respective roles of convection and sinking in shaping the oceanic overturning circulation and confirm the key role of boundary currents in ventilating the interior ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean region is a climate change hot-spot. Increasing greenhouse gas emissions are projected to lead to a significant warming of Mediterranean Sea waters, as well as major changes in its circulation, but the subsequent effects of such changes on marine biogeochemistry are still poorly understood. Our aim is to investigate the changes in nutrient concentrations and biological productivity in response to climate change in the Mediterranean region. To do so, we perform transient simulations with the coupled high resolution model NEMOMED8/PISCES using the pessimistic IPCC SRES-A2 socio-economic scenario and corresponding Atlantic, Black Sea, and coastal nutrient inputs. Our results indicate that nitrate is accumulating in the Mediterranean Sea over the 21st century, whereas no tendency is found for phosphorus. These contrasted variations result from an unbalanced nitrogen-to-phosphorus input from external sources and lead to changes in phytoplankton nutrient limitation factors. In addition, phytoplankton net primary productivity is reduced by 10 % in the 2090s in comparison to the present state, with reductions of up to 50 % in some regions such as the Aegean Sea as a result of nutrient limitation and vertical stratification. We also perform sensitivity tests in order to study separately the effects of climate and biogeochemical input changes on the Mediterranean future state. This article is a first step in the study of transient climate change effects on the Mediterranean biogeochemistry, but calls for coordinated multi-model efforts to explore the various uncertainty sources of such a future projection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, an ensemble of four multi-year climate simulations is performed with the regional climate model ALADIN to evaluate its ability to simulate the climate over North America in the CORDEX framework. The simulations differ in their driving fields (ERA-40 or ERA-Interim) and the nudging technique (with or without large-scale nudging). The validation of the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation with observationally-based gridded data sets shows that ALADIN performs similarly to other regional climate models that are commonly used over North America. Large-scale nudging improves the temporal correlation of the atmospheric circulation between ALADIN and its driving field, and also reduces the warm and dry summer biases in central North America. The differences between the simulations driven with different reanalyses are small and are likely related to the regional climate model's induced internal variability. In general, the impact of different driving fields on ALADIN is smaller than that of large-scale nudging. The analysis of the multi-year simulations over the prairie and the east taiga indicates that the ALADIN 2-m temperature and precipitation interannual variability is similar or larger than that observed. Finally, a comparison of the simulations with observations for the summer 1993 shows that ALADIN underestimates the flood in central North America mainly due to its systematic dry bias in this region. Overall, the results indicate that ALADIN can produce a valuable contribution to CORDEX over North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosols are known to interact with shortwave and longwave radiation, provoking a negative radiative forcing at the surface with ensuing cooling. They have therefore an important role in the Mediterranean climate system. In order to estimate the impact of aerosols on future climate, we use the ALADIN-Climat regional climate model which incorporates a prognostic aerosol scheme (TACTIC). It includes desert dust, sea salt, organic, black carbon, sulphate, ammonium and nitrate particles (Drugé et al., ACPD, 2018). The aim of this work is to study the future evolution of the different aerosols over the Euro-Mediterranean area, as well as the future climate sensitivity of this region to anthropogenic/natural aerosols. We realised a historical simulation (1971-2000) and two CMIP6 scenarios (SSP 5-8.5; 2021-2050), one using evolutive aerosols and the other constant anthropogenic emissions. This protocol allows us to identify the role of aerosols in the scenarios. First results show an additional increase in surface radiation and temperature over the future period due to aerosols, more precisely due to the drop in anthropogenic (notably sulfate) emissions. The future evolution of aerosols has also consequences on atmospheric circulation, precipitations and cloud cover that will be discussed in this presentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]