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Background: Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods: We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results: The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions: From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluated if two sigmodontine rodent taxa (Abrothrix olivacea and Phyllotis darwini) from the Andes and Coastal mountaintops of central Chile, experienced distributional shifts due to altitudinal movements of habitat and climate change during and after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We tested the hypothesis that during LGM populations of both species experienced altitudinal shifts from the Andes to the lowlands and the coastal Cordillera, and then range retractions during interglacial towards higher elevations in the Andes. These distributional shifts may have left remnants populations on the mountaintops. We evaluated the occurrence of intraspecific lineages for each species, to construct distribution models at LGM and at present, as extreme climatic conditions for each lineage. Differences in distribution between extreme climatic conditions were interpreted as post-glacial distributional shifts. Abrothrix olivacea displayed a lineage with shared sequences between both mountain systems, whereas a second lineage was restricted to the Andes. A similar scenario of panmictic unit in the past was recovered for A. olivacea in the Andes, along with an additional unit that included localities from the rest of its distribution. For P. darwini, both lineages recovered were distributed in coastal and Andean mountain ranges at present as well, and structuring analyses for this species recovered coastal and Andean localities as panmictic units in the past. Niche modeling depicted differential postglacial expansions in the recovered lineages. Results suggest that historical events such as LGM triggered the descending of populations to Andean refuge areas (one of the A. olivacea’s lineages), to the lowlands, and to the coastal Cordillera. Backward movements of populations after glacial retreats may have left isolates on mountaintops of the coastal Cordillera, suggesting that current species distribution would be the outcome of climate change and habitat reconfiguration after LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Socio-economic and environmental changes are well known causes of demographic collapse of agrarian cultures. The collapse of human societies is a complex phenomenon where historical and cultural dimensions play a key role, and they may interact with the environmental context. However, the importance of the interaction between socio-economic and climatic factors in explaining possible breakdowns in Native American societies has been poorly explored. The aim of this study is to test the role of socio-economic causes and rainfall variability in the collapse suffered by the Aymara people of the semiarid Andean region of Tarapacá during the period 1820–1970. Our motivation is to demonstrate that simple population dynamic models can be helpful in understanding the causes and relative importance of population changes in Andean agro-pastoral societies in responses to socio-environmental variability. Simple logistic models that combine the effects of external socio-economic causes and past rainfall variability (inferred from Gross Domestic Product [GDP] and tree-rings, respectively) were quite accurate in predicting the sustained population decline of the Aymara people. Our results suggest that the depopulation in the semiarid Tarapacá province was caused by the interaction among external socio-economic pressures given by the economic growth of the lowlands and demands for labor coupled with a persistent decline in rainfall. This study constitutes an example of how applied ecological knowledge, in particular the application of the logistic equation and theories pertaining to nonlinear population dynamics and exogenous perturbations, can be used to better understand major demographic changes in human societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]