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The Taiwan Strait has often been referred to as one of the world's most dangerous hotspots and many dire predictions have been made about a military conflict between mainland China and Taiwan, likely involving the United States. Yet, despite several crises in the Taiwan Strait and numerous war speculations, there has been no major armed conflict between Beijing and Taipei since the 1950s. How do we explain the puzzle that an expected war across the Taiwan Strait did not happen after all? This paper first examines the explanations based on military balance of power. Having found the realist/rationalist explanations less convincing, however, this study explores the explanatory power of the 'ethnicity' factor. It suggests that when the Chinese society is no longer divided by ideological differences, the 'ethnicity' may provide a more convincing explanation of why a military conflict has not happened in the Taiwan Strait in the past four decades. This paper also considers several counterarguments, including the neo-liberal argument of economic integration as a driving force for peace in the age of globalization. The paper concludes with a discussion of some policy implications resulting from the 'ethnic peace' thesis and proposes that when actively promoted by the both sides, the Chinese ethnic identity is likely to be the most important strategic guarantee of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for many years to come. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years the concept of 'soft power', popularized by the work of Joseph Nye, has gained currency in both China and Taiwan. This paper explores how the Chinese and Taiwanese understand soft power and its sources, and how their understanding differs from Nye's formulation. It discusses why this foreign concept has become so salient in the Chinese and the Taiwanese discourse. It also examines the impact of this concept on the external policies of China and Taiwan. The paper concludes by pointing out the limitations of the concept of soft power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beijing’s new strategies toward Taiwan are informed by neo-functionalism derived from European experiences, assuming that economic integration will eventually lead to political accommodation and integration. Despite the surprising Sunflower Movement and the fiasco of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in the 2014 local elections, Beijing will try its best to maintain the momentum of peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. Facing a brand new Taiwan that seems an oddity to the mainland, however, Beijing has adapted to ‘the new normal’ with a slower pace, refocusing on the economic and cultural issues. Whether or to what degree Beijing will change its asymmetric engagements with the two main parties on the island, however, is contingent upon whether the KMT and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) can reach a balance of power domestically and whether their policies toward the mainland converge rather than diverge. At any rate, Beijing is likely to pay more attention to ordinary people’s feelings about cross-Strait economic and cultural exchanges and consider quality of cross-Strait exchange as more important than quantity of activities. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]