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Abstract: The transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today, with a share of almost one third of the country's final energy demand. Considering this fact, it is very challenging to assess future trends influencing that demand. In this paper, long-term energy demand predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model incorporates the detailed modal structure of the Croatian transport sector, including road, rail, air, public and water transport modes. Four long-term energy demand scenarios were analysed till the year 2050; frozen efficiency, implementation of EU legislation, electrification and modal split. Based on that analysis, significant savings can be achieved through energy efficiency improvements, electrification of personal vehicles fleet as well as gradual modal split. Comparing the frozen efficiency scenario and electrification scenario for the year 2050, it can be concluded that energy consumption, with the heavy electrification of personal vehicles fleet, can be cut by half. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Households represent one of the most interesting sectors, when analyzing Croatia’s energy balance. It makes up one of the largest energy consumers with around 75PJ per year, which is almost 29% of Croatia’s final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing various mechanisms, which would lead to improvements in energy efficiency of this sector, seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems, important would be to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand of different sectors. Through this paper, long term energy demand projections of Croatian households sector will be shown. Focus of the paper will be on various mechanisms influencing future energy demand scenarios. Important would be to quantify this influence, whether positive or negative, and see which mechanisms would be the most significant. Energy demand projections in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and processes a large number of input data. The model will be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy and certain differences and conclusions will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which leads to lower GHG emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Today, tourism represents one of the backbones of Croatian economy and one of the main factors of its growth. Combined with catering trade sector, tourism represents a significant energy consumer that has the tendencies of future growth. Since services sector, which tourism–catering trade sector is a part of, is not yet well described regarding future energy balances it would be very interesting to see how could possible future growth in tourism influence energy consumption of the services sector in Croatia. Through this paper long term energy demand projections of tourism–catering trade sector were studied with special emphasis on future growth of tourism in Croatia as well as different mechanisms that might lead to certain energy savings. Bottom-up approach was chosen as the most suitable one since it allows better quantification of different measures, technological or legal, that would influence future energy demand. Downside of this approach is extensive input data that is required to analyse and model future energy demand which is roughly divided into heating/cooling section and all other consumption. Results show that additional energy savings in the tourism–catering trade sector are possible if careful and rational demand side planning is in place. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]