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This paper explores the role of electricity in the transition to renewable energy to mitigate climate change. A systematic literature review with the Scopus database identified 92 papers relevant to the renewable electricity transition. A PESTLE (Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) review of the papers provided a multidisciplinary analysis. The Paris Agreement created a global movement for carbon neutrality to address the threats of climate change, calling for a transition to renewable electricity to lead the way and expand into new sectors and regions. Although smaller renewable technologies are ramping up, complexities thwarting the transition include locked-in assets, high upfront costs, variability of solar and wind energy, infrastructure, difficulty in decarbonizing transportation and industry, material resource constraints, and fossil fuel support. This research found that renewables are not replacing fossil fuels to date but adding further energy demands, so that greenhouse gas emissions rose in 2021 despite an increased renewable electricity share. Without a major shift in the trillions of dollars of subsidies and investment away from fossil fuels to renewables, catastrophic climate change is predicted. This paper found that the Paris Agreement's commitment to net-zero carbon and the transition to renewable electricity are undermined by record-high levels of subsidies and financing for fossil fuel industry expansion. Transitioning to a climate-neutral economy requires an investment away from fossil fuels into renewable energy ecosystems. Renewable electricity provides possibilities to realize sustainable development goals, climate stabilization, job creation, a green economy, and energy security with careful planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is progressing faster than previously envisioned. Efforts to mitigate the challenges of greenhouse gas emissions by countries through the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has resulted in continuous environmental improvements in the energy efficiency and carbon emission signatures of products. In this paper, an energy–carbon emissions nexus causal model was applied using the Leontief Input–Output mathematical model for low-carbon products in future transport-manufacturing industries., The relationship between energy savings, energy efficiency, and the carbon intensity of products for the carbon emissions signature of the future transport manufacturing in South Africa was established. The interrelationship between the variables resulted in a 29% improvement in the total energy intensity of the vehicle body part products, 7.22% in the cumulative energy savings, and 16.25% in the energy efficiency. The scope that has been examined in this paper will be interesting to agencies of government, researchers, policymakers, business owners, and practicing engineers in future transport manufacturing and could serve as a fundamental guideline for future studies in these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key goal of the Paris Agreement (PA) is to reach net-zero Greenhouse Gasses (GHG) emissions by 2050 globally, which requires mitigation efforts from all countries. Africa's rapidly growing population and GDP makes this continent important for GHG emission trends. In this paper, we study the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in Africa over three decades (1990-2018). We compare bottom-up approaches including UNFCCC national inventories, FAO, PRIMAP-hist, process-based ecosystem models for CO2 fluxes in the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, and global atmospheric inversions. Our database is available from Zenodo at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7347077 (Mostefaoui et al., 2022). For inversions, we applied different methods to separate anthropogenic CH4 emissions. The bottom-up (BU) inventories show that over the decade 2010-2018, less than ten countries represented more than 75% of African fossil CO2 emissions. With a mean of 1373 MtCO2 yr-1, total African fossil CO2 emissions over 2010-2018 represent only 4% of global fossil emissions. Yet, these emissions grew by +34% from 1990-1999 to 2000-2009 and by +31% over 2000-2009 to 2010-2018, more than doubling in 30 years. This growth rate is more than twice faster than the global growth rate of fossil CO2 emissions. The anthropogenic emissions of CH4 grew by 5% from 1990-1999 to 2000-2009 and by 14.8% from 2000-2009 to 2010-2018. The N2O emissions grew by 19.5% from 1990-1999 to 2000-2009; and by 20.8% from 2000-2009 to 2010-2018. When using the mean of estimates from UNFCCC reports (including the land use sector), with corrections from outliers, Africa was a mean source of greenhouse gasses of +2622 $%&' ($() MtCO2e yr-1 from all bottom-up estimates (sub- and superscript indicating min-max range uncertainties), and of +2637%,'% -&,(MtCO2e yr-1 from top-down methods, during their overlap period from 2001 to 2017. Although the mean values are consistent, the range of top-down estimates is larger than the one of bottom up, indicating that sparse atmospheric observations and transport model errors do not allow us to use inversions to reduce the uncertainty of bottom-up estimates. A main source of uncertainty comes from CO2 fluxes in the land-use sector (LULUCF) for which the spread across inversions is larger than 50%, especially in Central Africa. Moreover, estimates from national UNFCCC communications differ widely depending on whether the large sinks in a few countries are corrected to more plausible values using more recent national sources following the methodology of Grassi et al. (2022) The median of CH4 emissions from inversions based on satellite retrievals and in situ surface networks are consistent with each other within 2% at continental scale. The inversion ensemble also provides consistent estimates of anthropogenic CH4 emissions with bottom-up inventories such as PRIMAP-hist. For N2O, inversions systematically show higher emissions than inventories, on average about 4.5 times more than PRIMAP-hist, either because natural N2O sources cannot be separated accurately from anthropogenic ones in inversions, or because bottom-up estimates ignore indirect emissions and under-estimate emission factors. Future improvements can be expected thanks to a denser network for monitoring atmospheric concentrations. This study helps to introduce methods to enhance the scope of use of various published datasets and allows to compute budgets thanks to recombinations those data products. Our results allow to understand uncertainty and trends of emissions and removals in a region of the world where few observations exist and most inventories are based on default IPCC guidelines values. The results can therefore serve as a support tool for the Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement. The referenced datasets related to figures are available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7347077 (Mostefaoui et al., 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the debate surrounding the impact of adaptation to climate change on the incentives to abate greenhouse gases emissions. Using data from the World Development Indicators and various adaptation funds under the UNFCCC framework, this paper provides an empirical analysis of the relation between adaptation and emissions. We specifically test whether adaptation measures to climate change affect emissions of greenhouse gases in a world where adaptation funds are available. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach and an event study analysis, we find that receiving adaptation funding significantly and negatively affects several CO2 emissions measures, providing preliminary evidence of the presence of a halo effect of adaptation funding. We do not find evidence of a significant change in the emissions of methane, nitrous dioxide and other greenhouse gases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thailand's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims to reduce 20 to 25% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with respect to the projected reference level of NDC in 2030, respectively, in its unconditional and conditional scenarios. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C would require net zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by around 2050. Thailand's current energy system is highly fossil fuel dependent and requires enormous transformations to achieve more stringent GHG emission reduction targets beyond its NDC. This paper seeks to estimate the level and the intensities of Thailand's energy system and their economy-wide effects post-2030 under the business as usual and 16 GHG emission reduction scenarios ranging from 30 to 100% by 2050. A computable general equilibrium analysis using the AIM/Hub model is employed to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of meeting the unconditional and conditional emission reductions of Thailand's NDC in 2030 along with varying GHG emission reductions in 2050. Results show that renewables – constituting solar, wind, biomass and hydro and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies account for more than 95% in the power generation mix by 2050, if 100% GHG emission reduction from the 2010 level is to be achieved. Electricity generation based on biomass both with and without CCS will occupy a major share in the investments by 2050 in all the conditional and unconditional NDC scenarios. A rapid increase in carbon sequestration occurs from 2040 onwards through the deployment of CCS and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) technologies in all the conditional and unconditional NDC scenarios. Carbon prices lie in the range of 3.4–266.2 US$/tCO2eq during 2025–2050 to achieve 100% GHG emission reductions in 2050. Imposition of early stringent mitigation target lowers the carbon prices in the conditional scenarios towards 2050 when compared to the unconditional scenarios. The rapid uptake of CCS, energy efficiency improvements and electrification of the end-use technologies are identified to be the key measures to transform the energy system of Thailand. By 2050, the Thai economy would face a higher fall in both the GDP and household consumption in the unconditional scenarios than those in the conditional scenarios at all levels of GHG emission reduction. Results indicate that early mitigation efforts can be less costly than the delayed ones in the long-term. The cumulative investment needed to achieve decarbonization in Thailand is estimated to exceed 355 billion US$2005 over the period 2010–2050 in the 100% GHG reduction scenarios. The transmission and distribution investments in the power sector need to increase by 30–35% to attain 100% GHG emission reductions during 2010–2050. The trade deficit improves by up to 23–29% in the various GHG mitigation scenarios in 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's economy has made significant strides in the past three decades. As a direct result of China's "one belt, one road" (OBOR) initiative, the country's rate of industrialization and urbanization is currently the fastest in the entire world. This rapid development is largely dependent on the enormous amounts of energy currently being consumed and forms the foundation of the world's high levels of carbon emissions. It is generally agreed that the production of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, is the primary contributor to the current state of climate change. In this paper, a CO2 emission prediction model based on Bi-LSTM is constructed. In order to conduct empirical tests on the model, this study uses data from South Asian countries and China from 2001 to 2020. China's CO2 emissions from 2022 to 2030 were predicted along with those of other countries in order to study the combined effects of the scientific and technological progress, industrial structures, and energy structure factors affecting CO2 emissions. When compared with the LSTM and GRU methods, the Bi-LSTM model's results produced lower MAE, MSE, and MAPE values, indicating that it performs better. According to the findings, carbon emissions represent a significant problem that will become much worse in the future due to China and India's high emissions, particularly in the next 10 years, if the government does not implement policies that help reduce those emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emissions trading, also known as cap-and-trade systems, has not yet fulfilled its function of mitigating overall global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The reasons for this failure are manifold and have been broadly discussed at political and empirical levels in the last decades. However, much can still be said from a philosophical perspective. Such an analysis is not limited to the evaluation of cap-and-trade systems' lack of efficiency and the consequences arising from it but goes deeper into the moral questions underlying cap-and-trade systems. This is how this paper attempts to contribute to and expand the debate on emissions trading at different levels. By examining a popular analogy between traditional and climate commons, I challenge some of the economic and normative assumptions at the core of cap-and-trade systems. I argue that these assumptions lead to misguided conclusions in responding to the causes of climate change. This will partly explain why, although emissions trading is intended to fulfil a duty to mitigate greenhouse gases, we should not pin all our hopes on it just yet. Key policy insights The problems associated with free access to the traditional and climate commons can be conceived of in an analogous way, but the solutions to address them cannot. These include market-based policies focusing on the distribution of property rights over the atmosphere's capacity to absorb GHGs. Like other common resources, the atmosphere's capacity to absorb GHGs is limited and subject to deterioration due to free access and competing consumption. Unlike other common resources, there is no ability to restrict, control or sanction non-cooperative behaviour that continues to pollute the atmosphere. This poses a major challenge to the effectiveness of cap-and-trade systems. Emissions trading systems can be attractive mechanisms for pursuing GHGs targets by minimizing the costs of pollution while limiting the impact of mitigation on the overall economy. Nevertheless, even efficient emissions trading systems fail to fully address the moral concerns that lie at the heart of our current climate crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2022, Saudi Arabia's anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions amounted to 810 million tons of CO 2 e. The country has pledged to cut its emissions by 278 million tons of CO 2 e per year by 2030. This paper contributes a modeling view on the climate-related effects of various energy policies on the Saudi energy system. We use an energy system model designed to represent seven sectors in the Saudi economy. In addition to a baseline, which entails the continuation of current domestic policies, we look at a scenario that incorporates some of the plans announced by the Saudi government. We also examine the baseline scenario with a cap on total CO 2 emissions equal to those exhibited with the announced plans. The model then makes the necessary decisions to abate CO 2. We find that the energy system contributes 130 million tons of CO 2 e to the nationally determined contribution amount in 2030. Also, a non-prescriptive scenario that caps energy-system CO 2 emissions produces the same emissions reductions as the announced plans while lowering the present cost by 2030 by $70 billion. The corresponding implicit marginal abatement cost of CO 2 approaches 35 $/tonCO 2 by 2045. This cost would displace around half of crude and fuel oil use in the Saudi energy system. • Saudi Arabia plans to cut annual greenhouse gas emissions by 278 million tonsCO 2 e. • We use a multi-sector model built from the ground up for Saudi Arabia. • The energy system can contribute 130 million tons of CO 2 e in reductions in 2030. • We find a scenario that achieves GHG abatement at a lower cost than official plans. • The marginal value attributed to CO 2 approaches 35 $ per tonCO 2 by 2045. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The detrimental effects of climate change are becoming pressingly apparent over the decades with policy-makers clumsily grappling with various policies to mitigate on its impacts on their respective economies. However, inefficiencies permeate in the implementation of these policies as they are being implemented only at the end of the process of economic activities. To resolve such a problem, this paper develops an innovative and novel approach to internalize CO 2 emissions by proposing a ramified Taylor rule which captures a climate change premium, the level of which is directly dependent on the extent of deviation of actual CO 2 emissions from its targeted level. The key benefits of the proposed tool are that not only effectiveness level is being bolstered by applying the tool right at the start of the process of economic activities but also that funds collected out of such a climate change premium could empower governments worldwide to vigorously green their economies. The model is tested for a given economy using the DSGE approach with findings attesting to the effectiveness of the proposed tool in curtailing the level CO 2 emissions, independent of the type of monetary shock under scrutiny. Most importantly, depending on the extent of aggressiveness in mitigating the pollutants level, the parameter weight coefficient can be fine-tuned accordingly. • This paper develops an innovative model to internalize CO 2 emissions by linking CO 2 emissions to the macroeconomic state of the economy through the Taylor rule. • The model is tested using DSGE technique on a given economy. • Many benefits emanating from the newly developed model such as policy effectiveness. • A climate change premium is incorporated in the model which can provide funding to green economic activities. • The parameter weight coefficient can be fine-tuned accordingly depending on the degree of aggressiveness of the economy in mitigating CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Physical, Regulatory and Brand value risks due to climate change challenges are foreseen by businesses globally. This paper is oriented towards these challenges and prepared a comprehensive Greenhouse gases (GHG) footprint plan and identification of mitigation opportunities for ONGC, a fortune 500 and national oil company of India. Internationally recognized standards and guidelines like Greenhouse Gas Protocol, ISO-14064, and American Petroleum Institute compendium have been referred for quantifying carbon emissions in nearly real 400 + operation control facilities. The GHG inventory is based on Operational Control approach to identify the boundary for which emissions are to be quantified and two significant scopes of emissions viz Direct Emissions and Indirect Emissions are identified and quantified. The quantification concluded that GHG emission footprint for the year 2016–17 is in the range of 9 million tons of CO 2 equivalent. GHG emissions mainly account due to stationary combustion, fugitive emissions and wastewater treatment, which share the around 56% of total emissions. Another 24–26% of emissions are contributed due to flaring, processes by glycol dehydrator, acid gas removal units, and by electricity purchased from the grid. As a result, it has been found that ONGC emits 187 kg CO 2 e emissions per tonne throughput and also compared with its global peer organizations. At the organization level, "Key Industrial Sites" have been identified as contributing higher GHG emissions and accordingly key "hot-spots," a list of 15 GHG mitigation opportunities have been proposed in the paper. Two GHG mitigation initiatives based on solar energy and bioenergy application undertaken at ONGC has also been briefed on case studies. Highlights • Comprehensive carbon footprint plan and identification of mitigation opportunities for Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), a fortune 500 and national oil company of India. • Guidelines like Greenhouse Gas Protocol, ISO-4064 and American Petroleum Institute compendium are referred for quantifying carbon emissions from direct and indirect sources. • Green policy, incentives and mandatory compliance. • CO2e emissions per tonne throughput and also compared with its peer global organisations. • Key hot-spots, with a list of 15 GHG mitigation opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The industrial sector has significantly contributed to global climate change and urban air pollution while driving economic development. This paper takes the synergistic CO2 and SO2 emission reduction in China's industrial sector as an entry point quantifies the synergistic CO2 and SO2 emission reduction effect using the Kaya extension model and analyzes the synergistic emission reduction expansion mechanism in depth. It is found that the synergistic effect of CO2 and SO2 in the industrial sector is prevalent in most provinces in China. Every 10,000 tons of CO2 emission reduction leads to 1600 tons of SO2 emission reduction. Regional heterogeneity also clarifies that there are differences in synergistic emission reduction among different provinces, with most regions having a significant positive effect of synergistic emission reduction, while a small number of regions have an inverse effect, and direct SO2 reduction measures should be considered separately. The interaction effect analysis found that energy efficiency improvement in the industrial sector is the critical path to synergistic effect enhancement. At the same time, R&D expenditure and fixed asset investment have a weak effect on synergistic emission reduction. The interaction of the three factors can synergize the emission reduction effect by more than twice. The study's findings can be used as a reference for China's industrial sector to achieve the goal of reducing pollution and carbon emissions and for the practice of regional synergistic emission reduction, as well as for the formulation of international synergistic emission reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Schematic illustration of the double-layer PDRC coating. [Display omitted] • The idea of introducing masking layer for double-layer PDRC coating is proposed. • PDRC coating achieves high solar reflectivity (94.0%) at a thin thickness. • The PDRC coating reduces the indoor temperature of container room by 5.0 °C. • The prepared PDRC coating can realize large-scale long-time outdoor applications. The realization of spontaneous sub-ambient cooling in daytime typically requires the solar reflectance and thermal emittance of passive daytime radiative cooling (PDRC) material to be > 90%. Toward real-world applications, however, to achieve high optical performance and excellent durability, PDRC coating is often cost-prohibitive due to its high thickness (500 μm or higher). To solve the contradiction between high optical performance and thin thickness of PDRC coating, the idea of introducing masking layer for PDRC coating is proposed in this paper to prepare the water-based double-layer PDRC coating and explore its long-term outdoor application potential. The PDRC coating can achieve high solar reflectance (94.0%) and "atmospheric transparent spectrum window" emittance (93.0%), while the thickness and cost are only 40% and 60% of existing water-based PDRC coating. The PDRC coating shows efficient cooling performance when applied as the external coating of large temporary buildings, with maximum temperature reduction of 20.8 °C and 5.0 °C on the roof/indoor, which are equal to or greater than recorded values. The 150-day large-scale outdoor application shows that the coating has excellent durability, which offers a reference for the long-term outdoor application of PDRC coating. The application of the PDRC coating on rooftops of containers can achieve a cooling energy savings of up to 15.3% compared to conventional steel roofs, translating to an annual energy savings of 413.2 MJ and a reduction of approximately 114 kg in carbon dioxide emissions, which provide compelling evidence for the ability of PDRC coating to mitigate carbon emissions and address global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Reliable individual membrane pore wetting model is constructed and verified. • Overall membrane wetting conditions are investigated and analyzed by experiments. • Some suggestions are proposed to effectively avoid membrane wetting for practical application. In recent years, global climate change caused by excessive CO 2 emissions has attracted wide attention. Within this context, CO 2 capture by gas–liquid contactor based on membranes is one of the most promising technologies for post-combustion CO 2 capture. However, mass transfer deterioration due to membrane wetting becomes one of barriers for its development. In this paper, based on Laplace-Young equation, reliable individual membrane pore wetting model is constructed to demonstrate detailed wetting process inside membrane pores, which is verified by molecular dynamic (MD) numerical simulation. The wetting conditions of ceramic membrane with 1.26 µm average pore size and 51.4° contact angle are investigated in experiments. The results show that neither average nor maximum pore diameters can accurately predict liquid and bubble breakthrough pressures of ceramic membrane. The actual liquid and bubble breakthrough pressures of ceramic membrane are slightly lower than critical liquid and bubble breakthrough pressures corresponding to the maximum pore size. The wetting state of ceramic membrane can be determined by combining individual pore wetting model and actual membrane pore distribution. In addition, for practical application process of CO 2 capture by gas–liquid contactor with ceramic membrane, some suggestions to avoid membrane wetting are proposed for selection of ceramic membrane and system operation perspective. The membrane wetting analysis method proposed in this paper not only contributes to future applications of ceramic membrane in CO 2 capture, but is also widely applicable to other gas–liquid contactors in membrane separation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Developing countries face the dual challenges of industrialising and 'catching up' while mitigating CO 2 emissions. • Medium- and high-technology manufacturing is associated with lower emissions than low-technology manufacturing, with differences varying by the income levels of countries. • A shift to more technology-intensive manufacturing could be one aspect of environmentally sustainable industrialisation in developing countries. Industrialisation is an important engine of growth and 'catch up', but also associated with harmful carbon dioxide emissions and hence with climate change. This poses a challenge for sustainable industrial development, particularly for late industrialisers on how to industrialise while also mitigating carbon dioxide emissions. This paper investigates the effect of technology intensity across manufacturing industries on carbon dioxide emissions: are medium- and high-technology manufacturing industries less emissions-intensive than low-technology manufacturing industries in developing countries? The paper analyses this relationship for a panel of 68 developing and emerging economies over the period 1990–2016, by adapting the environmental Kuznets curve and the stochastic effect by regression on population, affluence and technology approaches. Using two alternative measures of emissions and estimating generalised method of moments model, the results show that medium- and high-technology manufacturing industries are associated with lower carbon dioxide emissions than low-technology manufacturing industries. The results also show that these differences vary by the income levels of countries. These findings have important policy implications, suggesting that a shift towards more technology-intensive manufacturing production processes may be a more environmentally sustainable industrialisation path for developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming, climate change, and resource depletion have forced us to reconsider energy usage and efficiencies over the last few decades. Residential and commercial buildings are both large energy consumers, so improving energy and material usage efficiency in this sector is a common research topic. According to a recent study, the Building Sector (BS) accounts for 40% of greenhouse gas emissions. The primary objective of this paper is to examine and assess the potential of Renewable Energy Systems (RES) and their combinations for enhancing energy efficiency in the BS. Specifically, the focus will be on converting low energy-efficient buildings into highly efficient ones. The potential of the RES and their combinations for the BS is evaluated based on payback durations, energy generation, and reduction of CO 2 emissions. The optimization flow charts for the RES, feasibility studies, commercialization road maps of energy storage systems and the necessity of control mechanisms for enhancing RES efficiency were discussed. Additionally, the technology drawbacks are discussed, along with various innovative techniques recommended to direct future study in this area. Finally, this article assists the audience clear idea in the selection of the right combination of potential RES based on different conditions to achieve deep decarbonization in BSs. • Buildings sector (BS) responsible for 40% of GHG emissions. • Study assesses potential of Renewable Energy System (RES) in BS. • RES evaluated on payback, energy generation, and CO 2 reduction. • Optimization, feasibility and commercialization studies were discussed. • Article recommends right RES combinations for deep decarbonization in BS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising global temperatures in the Arabian Peninsula region caused by climate change have increased the demand for air conditioning, resulting in more electricity consumption and CO 2 emissions. This paper treats Qatar as a representative country for understanding the effect of future regional warming on the electricity demand and CO 2 emissions We first develop a model that relates daily electricity demand with temperature. By combining this model with temperature projections from the CMIP6 database (bias adjusted and statistically downscaled) and population and GDP projections from four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), we can calculate Qatar's demand for electricity until the end of the century. The model identifies an average sensitivity of +4.2%/°C for the electricity demand and projects an increase in electricity demand by 5–35% due to warming alone at the end of this century. The model suggests that under SSP1-2.6, warming-induced CO 2 emissions could be offset by carbon intensity improvements. Furthermore, under SSP5-8.5, assuming no carbon intensity improvement, future warming could add 20–35% of CO 2 emissions per year by the end of the century, with half of the electricity demand related to more frequent hot days. We further found that the temperature effect on power demand and CO 2 emissions is small compared to the effects from socioeconomic factors such as population, GDP, and carbon intensity. • Data-based model to predict electricity demand from daily temperature regionally. • Projection of power demand with CMIP6 temperature projections for different SSPs. • Inclusion of the effect of the evolution of the population and the GDP on the demand. • Assumption on the evolution of the carbon intensity to deduce the CO 2 emissions. • Application to Middle East countries and implication for global temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]