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Greenhouse gases emission inventories are computed with rather low precision. Moreover, their uncertainty distributions may be asymmetric. This should be accounted for in the compliance and trading rules. In this paper we model the uncertainty of inventories as intervals or using fuzzy numbers. The latter allows us to better shape the uncertainty distributions. The compliance and emission trading rules obtained generalize the results for the symmetric uncertainty distributions that were considered in the earlier papers by the present authors (Nahorski et al., Water Air & Soil Pollution. Focus 7(4-5):539-558, ; Nahorski and Horabik, , J Energy Eng 134(2):47-52, ). However, unlike in the symmetric distribution, in the asymmetric fuzzy case it is necessary to apply approximations because of nonlinearities in the formulas. The final conclusion is that the interval uncertainty rules can be applied, but with a much higher substitutional noncompliance risk, which is a parameter of the rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective-a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from 'simple to complex' and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emissions trading scheme has recently become an important emissions reduction mechanism in China. The initial quota allocation is one of the key points in its design, which includes the initial quota allocation criterion and allocation method. In this paper, we analyze the regional macroeconomic impacts of emissions trading in China under different quota allocation criteria and allocation methods using a multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that the Ability-to-Pay criterion is better than the other criteria, as it can lead to fewer macroeconomic costs and welfare losses; narrow the economic gap between the eastern, central and western regions; and guide investment into the western regions. Comparing free allocation and auction, it is determined that free allocation leads to lower macroeconomic costs, while auction is better at adjusting the industrial structure. This indicates that a hybrid allocation method is preferable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the results of more than 20 different global models with a particular emphasis on two rapidly growing large countries (China and India), this paper discusses the cost estimation methods that are used in setting up information for organizing models and to illustrate their global applicability to China, Korea, Japan, India, Indonesia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. Some clear points emerge from the intermodal comparison exercise. First, no single technology can play a leading role in global emission mitigation. Second, although participation of all the regions is important, regions where future demographic and economic growth is concentrated will share a large part of this burden. Third, different technologies are important for different regions for mitigating emissions in the most cost-effective way. Fourth, if stringent climate policy targets are to be met, then emission-reduction actions need to be undertaken as soon as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents a methodology and its application for the compilation of elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) emission inventories. The methodology consists of the estimation of EC and OC emissions from available total suspended particulate matter (TSP) emission inventory data using EC and OC abundances in TSP derived from an extensive literature review, by taking into account the local technological context. In particular, the method is applied to the 2008 emissions of Lombardy region, Italy, considering 148 different activities and 30 types of fuels, typical of Western Europe. The abundances estimated in this study may provide a useful basis to assess the emissions also in other emission contexts with similar prevailing sources and technologies. The dominant sources of EC and OC in Lombardy are diesel vehicles for EC and the residential wood combustion (RWC) for OC which together account for about 83% of the total emissions of both pollutants. The EC and OC emissions from industrial processes and other fuel (e.g., gasoline, kerosene and LPG) combustion are significantly lower, while non-combustion sources give an almost negligible contribution. Total EC+OC contribution to regional greenhouse gas emissions is positive for every sector assuming whichever GWP100 value within the range proposed in literature. An uncertainty assessment is performed through a Monte Carlo simulation for RWC, showing a large uncertainty range (280% of the mean value for EC and 70% for OC), whereas for road transport a qualitative analysis identified a narrower range of uncertainty. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we consider the buying/selling prices of carbon dioxide (CO) emission permits in trading models with uncertainty. Permission prices, although usually omitted from standard models, may significantly influence the trading market. We thus undertook to construct a more realistic trade model and to compare it with the standard one. To do this, we introduced several important changes to the standard model, namely, (1) a new optimized quality function; and (2) transactions with price negotiations between regions. We also enhanced the model using methods described in the literature to allow it to deal with reported emissions uncertainty. Additionally, we used an original method of simulating this kind of market based on a specialized evolutionary algorithm (EA). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

pproximately half of human-induced carbon dioxide (CO) emissions are taken up by the land and ocean, and the rest stays in the atmosphere, increasing the global concentration and acting as a major greenhouse-gas (GHG) climate-forcing element. Although GHG mitigation is now in the political arena, the exact spatial distribution of the land sink is not well known. In this paper, an estimation of mean European net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon fluxes for the period 1998-2001 is performed with three mesoscale and two global transport models, based on the integration of atmospheric CO measurements into the same Bayesian synthesis inverse approach. A special focus is given to sub-continental regions of Europe making use of newly available CO concentration measurements in this region. Inverse flux estimates from the five transport models are compared with independent flux estimates from four ecosystem models. All inversions detect a strong annual carbon sink in the southwestern part of Europe and a source in the northeastern part. Such a dipole, although robust with respect to the network of stations used, remains uncertain and still to be confirmed with independent estimates. Comparison of the seasonal variations of the inversion-based net land biosphere fluxes (NEP) with the NEP predicted by the ecosystem models indicates a shift of the maximum uptake period, from June in the ecosystem models to July in the inversions. This study thus improves on the understanding of the carbon cycle at sub-continental scales over Europe, demonstrating that the methodology for understanding regional carbon cycle is advancing, which increases its relevance in terms of issues related to regional mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how the Kyoto Protocol has framed political discourse and policy development of greenhouse gas mitigation in Australia. We argue that ‘Kyoto’ has created a veil over the climate issue in Australia in a number of ways. Firstly, its symbolic power has distracted attention from actual environmental outcomes while its accounting rules obscure the real level of carbon emissions and structural trends at the nation-state level. Secondly, a public policy tendency to commit to far off emission targets as a compromise to implementing legislation in the short term has also emerged on the back of Kyoto-style targets. Thirdly, Kyoto’s international flexibility mechanisms can lead to the diversion of mitigation investment away from the nation-state implementing carbon legislation. A final concern of the Kyoto approach is how it has shifted focus away from Australia as the world’s largest coal exporter towards China, its primary customer. While we recognise the crucial role aspirational targets and timetables play in capturing the imagination and coordinating action across nations, our central theme is that ‘Kyoto’ has overshadowed the implementation of other policies in Australia. Understanding how ‘Kyoto’ has framed debate and policy is thus crucial to promoting environmentally effective mitigation measures as nation-states move forward from COP15 in Copenhagen to forge a post-Kyoto international agreement. Recent elections in 2009 in Japan and America and developments at COP15 suggest positive scope for international action on climate change. However, the lesson from the 2007 election and subsequent events in Australia is a caution against elevating the symbolism of ‘Kyoto-style’ targets and timetables above the need for implementation of mitigation policies at the nation-state level. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we examine how theories of sustainable and ethical consumption help us to understand a new, rapidly expanding type of consumer product designed to mitigate climate change: carbon offsets. The voluntary carbon offset market grew by 200% between 2005 and 2006, and there are now over 150 retailers of voluntary carbon offsets worldwide. Our analysis concentrates on the production and consumption of carbon offsets, drawing on ideas from governmentality and political ecology about how narratives and technologies are used to create particular types of consumer subjectivities and shape consumer choice. We critically examine three narratives that offset producers are using to position carbon offsets and examine how these narratives are shaping circuits of carbon offset production and consumption. We assess the implications for the future governance of voluntary carbon offset markets and for the study of alternative consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many European politicians argue that the EU should set tougher emission targets than what is required by the Kyoto protocol, and moreover, that emission trading with other countries outside EU should be limited so as to keep emission quota prices high. One of the arguments, frequently cited for such a policy, is the need for technological development. However, the literature on climate change and technological innovation does not unambiguously support the need for setting high emission taxes today. In this paper we investigate the relationship between emission taxes and technological change further by modeling innovation activity explicitly. In our model both the amount of R&D and the amount of carbon abatement are decided in a decentralized way by the market as a response to an emission tax. Moreover, we introduce several distinct failures in the market for new innovations, among others, insufficient patent protection and intertemporal knowledge spill-overs. Our findings suggest that governments should under some circumstances set a higher carbon tax today if we have technological change driven by R&D than if we have pure exogenous technological change. Based on numerical simulations these circumstances are (a) positive intertemporal knowledge spillovers and/or (b) weak patent protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to develop and report a national inventory of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. In the Asia region, "Workshops on Greenhouse Gas Inventories in Asia (WGIA)" have been organised annually since 2003 under the support of the government of Japan. WGIAs promote information exchange in the region to support countries' efforts to improve the quality of greenhouse gas inventories. This paper reports the major outcomes of the WGIAs and discusses the key aspects of information exchange in the region for the improvement of inventories. Results: The major outcomes of WGIAs intended to help countries improve GHG inventories, can be summarised as follows: (1) identification of common issues and possible solutions by sector, (2) reporting country inventory practices, and (3) verification of the UNFCCC reporting requirements. Conclusion: The workshops provided the opportunity for countries to share common issues and constraints pertinent to GHG inventories and to exchange information regarding possible solutions for those issues based on their own experience. The relevance of information exchange is determined due to emission sources, emitting mechanisms from sources, and technologies used. Information exchange about emission sources that are unique to Asia, like those of the agriculture sector, contributes significantly to the accumulation of knowledge at the regional and global levels. Enabling countries to verify their national circumstances with the reporting requirements under UNFCCC is also an essential part of the WGIA information exchange activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]