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Abstract: This paper identifies the main features of CO2 emission from fossil energy combustion in China. Then it estimates China''s future energy requirements and projects its CO2 emission from 2010 to 2020 based on the scenario analysis approach. China''s rate of carbon productivity growth is estimated to be 5.4% in the period 2005–2020, while the CO2 intensity of GDP will reduce by about 50% but CO2 emission in 2020 will still be about 40% higher than prevailing in 2005 because of rapid growth of GDP. This estimation is based on the assumption that China will implement a sustainable development strategy in consideration of climate change issues. The main objectives of the strategy are to implement an “energy conservation first” strategy, to develop renewable energy and advanced nuclear technology actively, to readjust the country''s economic structure, and to formulate and legislate laws and regulations, and to build institutions for energy conservation and development of renewable energy. It concludes that international measures to mitigate CO2 emission will limit world fossil fuel consumption. China is not placed to replicate the modernization model adopted by developed countries and has to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emission control while still in the process of industrialization and modernization. China has to evolve a low carbon industrialization model. This is the key to the success of sustainable development initiatives in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The rational implementation of environmental regulation and efforts to improve carbon productivity are the practical choices for China to address climate change. This paper mainly explores the correlations between environmental regulation and carbon productivity in China. The study first measures and analyzes carbon productivity and its changes. The results indicate that China's carbon productivity experienced several fluctuations during the study period. Overall, the carbon productivity is currently in a stable rising phase. According to the empirical research on the basis of the spatial spillover effect, a positive spatial correlation exists between carbon productivity in the different regions of China, and there is a threshold for the impact of environmental regulation on carbon productivity. As the intensity of environmental regulation changes from weak to strong, its effect on carbon productivity in local regions will be affected and change from negative to positive. Similar effects will be seen in neighboring regions. At present, the average intensity of China's environmental regulation has not yet reached this threshold. The eastern region's average intensity of environmental regulation is closest to its threshold, while the average intensities of the central and western regions are far from their respective thresholds. There is great potential to improve China's carbon productivity through the implementation of appropriate environmental regulations. • China's overall carbon productivity is currently in a stable rising phase. • China's carbon productivity has a significant positive spatial correlation. • The improvement of carbon productivity in local regions will also improve carbon productivity in neighboring regions. • There is a threshold for the impact of environmental regulation on carbon productivity in China. • The integral intensity of environmental regulation in China has not yet reached the threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]