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This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system’s predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio-economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less-GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how project economics and decision making in industry can be affected by global climate change. When assessing the sustainability of any design or project, one of the key emerging considerations is the potential for the decision to contribute to greenhouse house gas (GHG) emissions. Changes in climate may also lead to new project risks with further economic implications. Design/methodology/approach - Examination of the wider social economic implications of climate change provides the basis for considering individual projects within the context of the social costs of carbon emissions, the prospect of the gradual internalisation of those costs, and the costs and benefits of adaptation to protect against the impacts of global change on the project. Findings - Emissions of greenhouse gases, still widely not priced in many parts of the world, drive the emerging observed and predicted effects of climate change on the planet. This damage has real value and can be monetised, allowing a notional social cost of carbon to be estimated. As climate change continues to manifest itself, societies start to react, constraining emissions and creating a market price or tax for carbon. If economic analysis for project decision making includes an explicit consideration of the likely future trajectory of carbon prices, and also examines the wider external social costs of carbon, the benefits of early adoption of revenue-positive measures to reduce emissions are revealed. In the same way, the financial costs of procrastination are made increasingly evident as regulatory and economic baselines shift. Designing for inevitable climate change will also help industry future-proof their operations. Practical implications - At present, relatively few organisations examine the financial and economic implications of carbon emissions or the effects of a changing climate on their operations. To avoid unnecessary costs, and maximise benefit for stakeholders, decision making for business and government needs to incorporate an explicit economic treatment of the current and likely future implications of operating in a climate-constrained and climate-impacted world. Originality/value - By conducting the kind of analysis proposed, organisations can not only help to reduce GHG emissions, but can also improve their own financial performance. The value of this analysis will only increase over the coming decades of the climate-change era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chajnantor plateau is located in the Atacama Desert at over 4800m above sea level. The plateau features a large fraction of days during the year where dry and stable atmospheric conditions predominate. The suitability of the type of astronomy observations routinely made at sites across the Chajnantor region at different times of the year depends on the variability of atmospheric water vapour. In this work, we study seasonal and intraseasonal variability associated with periods of large and low precipitable water vapour (PWV) in the Chajnantor region over 32 years. We establish large-scale conditions favourable for above- and below-normal PWV for each of the four seasons. We also explore whether intraseasonal PWV variations are related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Below-normal PWV in winter, spring, and autumn seasons was found associated with mostly zonal 500-hPa winds, which advect drier than normal air from the anticyclone over the eastern portions of the southeast (SE) Pacific Ocean. In summer, periods with below-normal PWV were found to have anomalously south-westerly winds at mid-levels, also indicating transport of anomalously dry air from the stable SE Pacific. In winter, spring, and autumn seasons, above-normal PWV was generally associated with north-westerly mid-tropospheric wind anomalies, indicating advection of above-normal PWV from the subtropical and tropical regions of the SE Pacific Ocean. Above-normal PWV conditions in summer were associated with nearly calm winds at 500 hPa. Months and phases of the MJO for the most extreme anomalies of PWV for each season agreed well with the seasonal anomalies. Furthermore, three independent reanalysis data sets generally agreed on MJO phases associated with largest positive and negative PWV anomalies. This agreement provides evidence for the first time that the MJO modulates the PWV content over the Atacama Desert. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates likely changes in mean and extreme precipitation over southern Africa in response to changes in radiative forcing using an ensemble of global climate models prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Extreme seasonal precipitation is defined in terms of 10-yr return levels obtained by inverting a generalized Pareto distribution fitted to excesses above a predefined high threshold. Both present (control) and future climate precipitation extremes are estimated. The future-to-control climate ratio of 10-yr return levels is then used as an indicator for the likely changes in extreme seasonal precipitation. A Bayesian approach to multimodel ensembling is adopted. The relative weights assigned to each of the model simulations is determined from bias, convergence, and correlation. Using this method, the probable limits of the changes in mean and extreme precipitation are estimated from their posterior distribution. Over the western parts of southern Africa, an increase in the severity of dry extremes parallels a statistically significant decrease in mean precipitation during austral summer months. A notable delay in the onset of the rainy season is found in almost the entire region. An early cessation is found in many parts. This implies a statistically significant shortening of the rainy season. A substantial reduction in moisture influx from the southwestern Indian Ocean during austral spring is projected. This and the preaustral spring moisture deficits are possible mechanisms delaying the rainfall onset in southern Africa. A possible offshore (northeasterly) shift of the tropical–temperate cloud band is consistent with more severe droughts in the southwest of southern Africa and enhanced precipitation farther north in Zambia, Malawi, and northern Mozambique. This study shows that changes in the mean vary on relatively small spatial scales in southern Africa and differ between seasons. Changes in extremes often, but not always, parallel changes in the mean precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detecting coherent signals of climate change is best achieved by conducting expansive, long-term studies. Here, using counts of waders ( Charadrii) collected from ca. 3500 sites over 30 years and covering a major portion of western Europe, we present the largest-scale study to show that faunal abundance is influenced by climate in winter. We demonstrate that the ‘weighted centroids’ of populations of seven species of wader occurring in internationally important numbers have undergone substantial shifts of up to 115 km, generally in a northeasterly direction. To our knowledge, this shift is greater than that recorded in any other study, but closer to what would be expected as a result of the spatial distribution of ecological zones. We establish that year-to-year changes in site abundance have been positively correlated with concurrent changes in temperature, but that this relationship is most marked towards the colder extremities of the birds' range, suggesting that shifts have occurred as a result of range expansion and that responses to climate change are temperature dependent. Many attempts to model the future impacts of climate change on the distribution of organisms, assume uniform responses or shifts throughout a species' range or with temperature, but our results suggest that this may not be a valid approach. We propose that, with warming temperatures, hitherto unsuitable sites in northeastern Europe will host increasingly important wader numbers, but that this may not be matched by declines elsewhere within the study area. The need to establish that such changes are occurring is accentuated by the statutory importance of this taxon in the designation of protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dominating wind patterns around Norway may change due to climate warming. This could affect transport of polluted air masses and precipitation. Here, we study relations between reactive nitrogen wet deposition and air mass transport during summer and winter expressed in the form of climate indices, at seven sites in Southern Norway for the period 1980-2005. Atmospheric nitrate concentrations decreased with 0 to 50% in the period, particularly at sites with little precipitation, and mostly during 1990-2005. For comparison, reported reductions in emissions of oxidised nitrogen in Europe in 1989-2003 were 23%. Climate indices explained up to 36% of the variation in winter nitrate deposition at the western and northern sites - and also explained 60% of the variation in winter precipitation (R=0.77). This suggests that the variation in nitrate wet deposition is closely related to variation in precipitation, and that the climate indices seem to also partly control the variation in atmospheric nitrate concentrations (R=-0.45 at coastal sites). At the coastal sites, local air temperature was highly correlated (R=0.84) with winter nitrate deposition, suggesting that warm, humid winter weather results in increased wet nitrate deposition. For ammonia the pattern was similar, but this compound is more influenced by local sources. Expected severe increase in precipitation in western and northern regions as a consequence of climate change suggest that nitrogen deposition in these areas will increase under global warming if emissions are held constant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]