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Abstract: The reconstruction of paleoenvironmental changes from diatoms in lake sediments is based on the usual assumption that, in each studied sample, the dominant species reflect the environment that prevailed during the time of deposition. If the environment changed significantly during the period of deposition (several years) one can expect a mixture of species having different or contradictory ecological affinities. In this paper we present analyses of diatoms in surface sediment samples collected in the Lake Ossa area (3°50′N, 9°36E) and fossil diatoms from a mid-late Holocene core retrieved in the deepest part of the lake. The Lake Ossa area alternates between a short dry season centered at around the northern winter and a long rainy season during the rest of the year entailing significant changes in water level and pH. Based on multivariate analyses, we will show here that mean annual water depth is the most significant variable explaining the distribution of diatoms in the entire Lake. However, seasonal changes of water level are poorly recorded by diatom assemblages, except in some flat areas on the borders of the lakes where a mixing between species with different affinities to water depth is likely due to seasonal changes in water level. Inferred water depth based on a quantitative transfer function reflected essentially secular to millennial changes in the studied core. The relationship between pH and diatoms is not statistically significant but seasonal to multi-annual pH variations mainly observed in the central parts of the lake are reflected by a mixing of acidophilous and alkaliphilous species. Hierarchical ascending cluster analysis (HAC) considered as the most efficient mean of describing diatom mixing shows that seasonal to multi-annual changes in pH are recorded both in the modern and fossil assemblages. According to the degree of mixing between diatoms with different pH affinities we conclude that short-term pH variability was weaker than today between 5200 and 2700calyrBP, stronger between 2700 and 2000calyrBP, weaker again between 2000 and 600calyrBP and similar to present from 400calyrBP onwards. Short-term changes were thus superimposed on secular to millennium trends recorded by modifications in the abundance of alkaliphilous diatoms. All these changes are interpreted as variations in precipitation according to a previous model showing that pH is strongly controlled by acidic meteoric water. Inferred water depth slightly changed over the last 5500years showing weak variations of precipitation minus evaporation balance at secular to millennial time scales. These results will be used to refine previously published paleoclimatic interpretations, which explained changes in precipitation and P–E balance by modifications in the vertical structure of the atmosphere and subsequently by changes in cloud cover, convective or stratiform. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The role of ocean feedback on monsoon variations at 6 and 9.5kyr Before Present (BP) compared to present-day is investigated by using sets of simulations computed with the IPSL–CM4 ocean–atmosphere coupled model and simulations with the atmospheric model only with the SST prescribed to the present-day simulation for the coupled model. This work is complementary to the study by Marzin and Braconnot (2009) who have analyzed in detail the response of Indian and African monsoons to changes in insolation at 6 and 9.5kyr BP using the IPSL–CM4 coupled model. The monsoon rainfall was intensified at 6 and 9.5kyr BP compared to 0kyr BP as a result of the intensified seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, the impact of the ocean feedback is analysed for the Indian, East-Asian and African monsoons. The response of the ocean to the 6 and 9.5kyr BP insolation forcing shares similarities between the two periods, but we highlight local differences and a delay in the response of the surface ocean between 6 and 9.5kyr BP. The ocean feedback is shown to be positive for the early stage of the African monsoon. A dipole of SST in the tropical Atlantic favouring the earlier build-up of the monsoon in the 6 and 9.5kyr BP coupled simulations. However, it is strongly negative for the Indian and East Asian monsoons, and of stronger amplitude at 9.5 than at 6kyr BP over India. In these Asian regions, the convection is more active over the ocean than over the continent during the late monsoon season due to the ocean feedback. The results are consistent with previous studies about 6kyr BP climate. In addition, it is shown that the ocean feedback is not sufficient to explain the relative amplifications of the different monsoon systems within the three periods of the Holocene, but that the mechanisms such as the effect of the precession on the seasonal cycle of monsoons as discussed in Marzin and Braconnot (2009) are more plausible. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Dating population divergence within species from molecular data and relating such dating to climatic and biogeographic changes is not trivial. Yet it can help formulating evolutionary hypotheses regarding local adaptation and future responses to changing environments. Key issues include statistical selection of a demographic and historical scenario among a set of possible scenarios, and estimation of the parameter(s) of interest under the chosen scenario. Such inferences greatly benefit from (a) independent information on evolutionary rate and pattern at genetic markers; and (b) new statistical approaches, such as approximate Bayesian computation‐random forest (ABC‐RF), which provides reliable inference at a low computational cost and the possibility to measure prediction quality at the exact position of the observed data set. Here, we show full potential of the ABC‐RF approach including prior knowledge on microsatellite genetic markers to decipher the evolutionary history of the African arid‐adapted pest locust, Schistocerca gregaria, with support for a southern colonization of Africa, from a low number of founders of northern origin, dating back 2.6 Ky (90% CI: 0.9–6.6 Ky). We verify that this divergence time estimate accurately reflected true divergence time values by computing accuracy at a local posterior scale from simulated pseudo‐observed data sets. The inferred divergence history is better explained by the peculiar biology of S. gregaria, which involves a density‐dependent swarming phase with some exceptional spectacular migrations, rather than a continuous colonization resulting from the continental expansion of open vegetation habitats during more ancient Quaternary glacial climatic episodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Domestic animals first appeared in the archaeological record in northern Africa c. 9000 years before present and subsequently spread southwards throughout the continent. This geographic expansion is well studied and can broadly be explained in terms of the movement of pastoralist populations due to climate change. However, no studies have explicitly evaluated changes in the climatic niche of these domesticates. A priori, one cannot assume a relationship between the geographic spread of animal production and changes in climatic niche breadth because their relationship is highly variable. Therefore, we investigated Holocene changes in the climatic niche of domestic animals (animal production) and compared these to changes in the climatic niche of hunted terrestrial ungulates. Location: The African continent. Time period: 9000–500 BP. Major taxa studied: Domestic animals, hunted (wild) terrestrial ungulates. Methods: For the first time, we applied methods from environmental niche dynamics to archaeological data to reconstruct and quantify changes in the climatic niche breadth of animal production during the African Holocene. We used faunal remains from archaeological assemblages and associated radiocarbon dates to estimate the proportion of the African climate space used for animal production and hunting at 500‐year intervals. Results: We found that the climatic niche of domestic species broadened significantly with the geographic spread, most notably during the termination of the African Humid Period, whilst no such broadening occurred for the climatic niche of hunted species. Main conclusions: Our results provide a quantitative measure of the extent to which humans have constructed and adapted the climatic niche of animal production to manage their domestic animals across increasingly diverse ecological conditions. By incorporating ecological analysis into estimations of past land use, our methods have the potential to improve reconstructions of land use change, and to provide a foundation on which further niche construction hypotheses may be tested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test possible linkages between climate and evolution in Africa through the analysis of sediment cores that have recorded environmental changes in the Chew Bahir basin. In this statistical project we consider the Chew Bahir palaeolake to be a dynamical system consisting of interactions between its different components, such as the waterbody, the sediment beneath lake, and the organisms living within and around the lake. Recurrence is a common feature of such dynamical systems, with recurring patterns in the state of the system reflecting typical influences. Identifying and defining these influences contributes significantly to our understanding of the dynamics of the system. Different recurring changes in precipitation, evaporation, and wind speed in the Chew Bahir basin could result in similar (but not identical) conditions in the lake (e.g., depth and area of the lake, alkalinity and salinity of the lake water, species assemblages in the water body, and diagenesis in the sediments). Recurrence plots (RPs) are graphic displays of such recurring states within a system. Measures of complexity were subsequently introduced to complement the visual inspection of recurrence plots, and provide quantitative descriptions for use in recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). We present and discuss herein results from an RQA on the environmental record from six short (< 17 m) sediment cores collected during the CBDP, spanning the last 45 kyrs. The different types of variability and transitions in these records were classified to improve our understanding of the response of the biosphere to climate change, and especially the response of humans in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To assess the genetic and archaeological evidence for the migration of modern humans out of Africa to the circum-Pacific region and compare the migration patterns with Late Pleistocene and Holocene changes in sea level and climate. Location Southern and eastern Asia, Australia, and Oceania. Methods Review of the literature and detailed compilations of data on early human settlements, sea level, and climate change. Results The expansion of modern humans out of Africa, following a coastal route into southern Asia, was initially thwarted by a series of large and abrupt environmental changes. A period of relatively stable climate and sea level from c. 45,000 yrbp to 40,000 yrbp supported a rapid coastal expansion of modern humans throughout much of Southeast Asia, enabling them to reach the coasts of northeast Russia and Japan by 38,000–37,000 yrbp. Further northwards, migrations were delayed by cold northern climates, which began to deteriorate rapidly after 33,000 yrbp. Human migrations along the coast of the Bering Sea into the New World appear to have occurred much later, c. 14,000 yrbp, probably by people from central Asia who were better adapted to cold northern climates. Cold, dry climates and rapidly changing sea levels leading into and out of the Last Glacial Maximum inhibited coastal settlement, and many of the sites occupied prior to 33,000 yrbp were abandoned. After 16,000 yrbp, the sea-level rise slowed enough to permit coastal ecosystems to develop and coasts to be re-colonized, but abrupt changes in climate and sea level inhibited this development until after 12,000 yrbp. Between 12,000 yrbp and 7000 yrbp there was a dramatic increase in reef and estuary/lagoon ecosystems, concurrent with a major expansion of coastal settlements. This early Holocene increase in coastal environments and the concomitant expansion of human coastal-resource exploitation were followed by corresponding declines in both phenomena in the mid-Holocene, c. 6000–4000 yrbp. This decline in coastal resources is linked to the drop in sea level throughout the Pacific, which may have caused the widespread population dislocations that ultimately led to the human expansion throughout Oceania. Main conclusions Climate and sea-level changes played a central role in the peopling of the circum-Pacific region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examination of climatic inferences based on palynological, geomorphic, sedimentological, and other proxy data reveals a coherent picture of a generally wet early Holocene and drier conditions, with a time-transgressive clinal change commencing ca, 4500 B.P. The large-scale climatic periods in Africa during the Late Quaternary were interrupted by abrupt oscillations and rapid transitions. The magnitude and direction of climatic changes show distinct regional variation. However, in the monsoon-domain areas, abrupt drought events occurred conspicuously at ca. 12,000–11,500, 8500, 7500, 4500, 4000–3700, and 2000 uncalibrated radiocarbon years B.P. Further investigations are required to gain a more precise chronology of these events, which appear to have been crucial for some of the most salient developments in Africa's prehistory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]