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Buildings, energy, and the environment are key issues facing construction around the world. The energy efficiency of buildings is a key topic when it comes to reducing the world's energy consumption, releasing harmful gases, and global climate change, as they consume about 40% of the world's energy supplies. Heat losses in buildings reduce the energy performance of buildings and are basically important to them. In the paper, the authors focus on the main problems related to heat losses generated by chimney systems, which are inseparable equipment of building structures, resulting in lower energy efficiency and, at the same time, technical efficiency and durability of the building partitions themselves. Authors present thermal imaging with its contribution to the detection of heat losses, thermal bridges, insulation problems, and other performance disturbances, and then verifications using appropriate simulation models. The mathematical apparatus of artificial neural networks was implemented to predict the temperature distributions on the surfaces of prefabricated chimney solutions. In Europe, we can often find a large building substance equipped with traditional chimneys, which disrupts the current trend of striving to reduce energy consumption, especially that derived from fossil fuels. Speaking of energy-efficient buildings, one should not ignore those that, without additional security and modern installations, are constantly used in a very wide range. Therefore, the article deals with an essential problem that is not perceived in design studies and during the operation period as having a basis in incorrect architectural solutions and which can be easily eliminated. It concerns the cooling of internal partitions of buildings on their last storeys, in places where chimneys are located, regardless of their function. The authors of the paper decided to take a closer look at this phenomenon, which may allow the limiting of its effects and at the same time reduce its impact on the energy performance of technologically older buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper critically analyses the voluntary agreement of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) which is intended to ensure a significant reduction of average CO 2 emissions from new passenger cars. It concludes that the voluntary agreement is far from being an adequate solution in terms of both ecological effectiveness and economic cost-efficiency. Therefore, the paper proposes to replace the voluntary agreement by an emission trading scheme which directly places car makers under obligation. This switch in policy should be accompanied by further phased increases in the ecotax levied on fuels and a vehicle taxation system that places greater focus on CO 2 emission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, efforts are underway to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts at the local level. However, there is a poor understanding of the relationship between city strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and the relevant policies at national and European level. This paper describes a comparative study and evaluation of cross-national policy. It reports the findings of studying the climate change strategies or plans from 200 European cities from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study highlights the shared responsibility of global, European, national, regional and city policies. An interpretation and illustration of the influences from international and national networks and policy makers in stimulating the development of local strategies and actions is proposed. It was found that there is no archetypical way of planning for climate change, and multiple interests and motivations are inevitable. Our research warrants the need for a multi-scale approach to climate policy in the future, mainly ensuring sufficient capacity and resource to enable local authorities to plan and respond to their specific climate change agenda for maximising the management potentials for translating environmental challenges into opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-frequency variability of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) can strongly affect precise positioning with GNSS. The occurrence rate as well as the amplitude of such disturbances has been extensively studied over the last decade. Mainly, one can distinguish disturbances due to space-weather events and the others, qualified as “quiet-time” as they are observed during quiet geomagnetic conditions. The latter, which represent more than 75% of the total number of disturbances over mid-latitudes, are then divided into two categories: the Winter Daytime (WD) and the Summer Nighttime (SN). The first category, representing the bulk of quiet-time disturbances, corresponds to classical Medium-Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (MSTIDs), that are the result of the interaction of gravity waves and the ionospheric plasma. On the other hand, SN disturbances are generally understood as non-classical MSTIDs of electrical origin. The paper investigates the origin of these two types of disturbance based on GPS measurements, ionospheric soundings and wind speed data at a tropospheric level. If one cannot exclude the solar terminator as a potential source of gravity waves responsible for WD events, it is thought that the major contribution comes from the lower atmosphere. More precisely, tropospheric jetstream is considered as the favorite candidate for daytime MSTIDs. Turning to SN disturbances, our analysis reveals that they are related to spread-F phenomenon, linked to the appearance of sporadic E-layers. The related instabilities are responsible for field-aligned irregularities in the F-region, which are thought to be responsible for noise-like fluctuations of the GPS TEC observed during SN events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather conditions in urban areas have a serious impact on the quality of life, energy consumption and health of urban citizens. In addition energy poverty has a serious impact on the quality of life of low income households. The aim of the present paper is review the actual housing status of low income population in Europe and discuss issues related to the impact of urban overheating and extreme weather phenomena on the specific energy consumption, indoor environmental conditions and health. Finally advanced low cost mitigation and adaptation technologies developed during the last years that offer a serious potential for energy and environmental improvements which can contribute to improve the quality of life of low income population are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of climate change impacts on agricultural land use generally consider sets of climates combined with fixed socio-economic scenarios, making it impossible to compare the impact of specific factors within these scenario sets. Analysis of the impact of specific scenario factors is extremely difficult due to prohibitively long run-times of the complex models. This study produces and combines metamodels of crop and forest yields and farm profit, derived from previously developed very complex models, to enable prediction of European land use under any set of climate and socio-economic data. Land use is predicted based on the profitability of the alternatives on every soil within every 10' grid across the EU. A clustering procedure reduces 23,871 grids with 20+ soils per grid to 6,714 clusters of common soil and climate. Combined these reduce runtime 100 thousand-fold. Profit thresholds define land as intensive agriculture (arable or grassland), extensive agriculture or managed forest, or finally unmanaged forest or abandoned land. The demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available. An iteration adjusts prices to meet these constraints. A range of measures are derived at 10' grid-level such as diversity as well as overall EU production. There are many ways to utilise this ability to do rapid What-If analysis of both impact and adaptations. The paper illustrates using two of the 5 different GCMs (CSMK3, HADGEM with contrasting precipitation and temperature) and two of the 4 different socio-economic scenarios ('We are the world', 'Should I stay or should I go' which have contrasting demands for land), exploring these using two of the 13 scenario parameters (crop breeding for yield and population) . In the first scenario, population can be increased by a large amount showing that food security is far from vulnerable. In the second scenario increasing crop yield shows that it improves the food security problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for addressing the impacts of climate change, yet are often considered separately. This paper examines the literature for evidence of the interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures across the agriculture, biodiversity, coasts, forests, urban and water sectors, focusing on Europe. It found that often adaptation and mitigation synergies and conflicts were not explicitly mentioned within a sector, let alone between sectors. Most measures, however, were found to have an effect on another sector, resulting in neutral, positive (synergies) or negative (conflicts) interactions within and between sectors. Many positive cross-sectoral interactions involved biodiversity or water and thus these could represent good starting places for the implementation of integrated, cross-sectoral strategies. Previous studies suggest that adaptation and mitigation are undertaken on different time and geographical scales; this study found many local scale measures which could facilitate integration between both adaptation and mitigation. It is important that cross-sectoral interaction of adaptation and mitigation measures are explicitly recognised if they are to be mainstreamed into policy, so that positive outcomes are enhanced and unintended consequences avoided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenario development methods get to grips with taking a long-term view on complex issues such as climate change through involvement of stakeholders. Many of the recent (global) scenario exercises have been structured according to a Story-and-Simulation approach. Although elaborately studied, conceptual and practical issues remain in linking qualitative stories and quantitative models. In this paper, we show how stakeholders can directly estimate model parameter values using a three-step approach called Fuzzy Set Theory. We focus on the effect of multiple iterations between stories and models. Results show that we were successful in quickly delivering stakeholder-based quantification of key model parameters, with full consistency between linguistic terms used in stories and numeric values. Yet, values changed strongly from one iteration to the next. A minimum of two and preferably at least three iterations is needed to harmonise stories and models. We conclude that the application of Fuzzy Set Theory enabled a highly valuable, structured and reproducible process to increase consistency between stories and models, but that future work is needed to show its true potential, particularly related to the effect of iterations. Additionally, the number of tools that need to be applied in a short period of time to execute a Story-And-Simulation approach introduces drawbacks that need to be studied. However, an approach such as Story-And-Simulation is indispensable and effective in marrying the perspectives of scientists and other stakeholders when studying complex systems and complex problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated cross-sectoral impact assessments facilitate a comprehensive understanding of interdependencies and potential synergies, conflicts, and trade-offs between sectors under changing conditions. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a European integrated assessment model, the CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform (IAP). The IAP incorporates important cross-sectoral linkages between six key European land- and water-based sectors: agriculture, biodiversity, flooding, forests, urban, and water. Using the IAP, we investigate the direct and indirect implications of a wide range of climatic and socio-economic drivers to identify: (1) those sectors and regions most sensitive to future changes, (2) the mechanisms and directions of sensitivity (direct/indirect and positive/negative), (3) the form and magnitudes of sensitivity (linear/non-linear and strong/weak/insignificant), and (4) the relative importance of the key drivers across sectors and regions. The results are complex. Most sectors are either directly or indirectly sensitive to a large number of drivers (more than 18 out of 24 drivers considered). Over twelve of these drivers have indirect impacts on biodiversity, forests, land use diversity, and water, while only four drivers have indirect effects on flooding. In contrast, for the urban sector all the drivers are direct. Moreover, most of the driver-indicator relationships are non-linear, and hence there is the potential for 'surprises'. This highlights the importance of considering cross-sectoral interactions in future impact assessments. Such systematic analysis provides improved information for decision-makers to formulate appropriate adaptation policies to maximise benefits and minimise unintended consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty – which is imperative for decision making – without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change will affect road networks during this century. The effects will be different in various parts of the world due to differences in local climate change and in the structure and properties of roads. In this paper, climate change projections are presented for climate variables that are most likely to affect the long-term performance of road networks in Europe. We apply four regional climate simulations up to the year 2100 using two plausible future emission scenarios. The results show that the changing climate will require significant adaptation measures in the near future in order to maintain the operability of the European road network. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Summary This paper presents a review of trend analysis of extreme precipitation and hydrological floods in Europe based on observations and future climate projections. The review summaries methods and methodologies applied and key findings from a large number of studies. Reported analyses of observed extreme precipitation and flood records show that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant trends at large-scale regional or national level of extreme streamflow. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows, likely caused by increasing temperature. The review of likely future changes based on climate projections indicates a general increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trends. Hydrological projections of peak flows show large impacts in many areas with both positive and negative changes. A general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are projected for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows, which is consistent with the observed trends. Finally, existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation are reviewed. The review shows that only few countries have developed guidelines that incorporate a consideration of climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary European water policy developments are essentially linked to the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive and parent legislation, which is built upon the principle of river basin management planning with the objective of achieving good status for all European water bodies. Recent policy developments in the climate change area call for ‘climate proofing’ of EU actions through mainstreaming of adaptation measures into policies and programmes. These policy trends are very closely related to the capacity to get access to supporting scientific information and to bridge the knowledge gap. This paper is about these features, serving as an introduction to the special issue of Journal of Hydrology on climatic change impact on water: overcoming data and science gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of climate on time scales of years to decades is attracting the interest of both climate researchers and stakeholders. The German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) has launched a major research programme on decadal climate prediction called MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen, Decadal Climate Prediction) in order to investigate the prediction potential of global and regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper we describe a regional predictive hindcast ensemble, its validation, and the added value of regional downscaling. Global predictions are obtained from an ensemble of simulations by the MPI-ESM-LR model (baseline 0 runs), which were downscaled for Europe using the COSMO-CLM regional model. Decadal hindcasts were produced for the 5 decades starting in 1961 until 2001. Observations were taken from the E-OBS data set. To identify decadal variability and predictability, we removed the long-term mean, as well as the long-term linear trend from the data. We split the resulting anomaly time series into two parts, the first including lead times of 1-5 years, reflecting the skill which originates mainly from the initialisation, and the second including lead times from 6-10 years, which are more related to the representation of low frequency climate variability and the effects of external forcing. We investigated temperature averages and precipitation sums for the summer and winter half-year. Skill assessment was based on correlation coefficient and reliability. We found that regional downscaling preserves, but mostly does not improve the skill and the reliability of the global predictions for summer half-year temperature anomalies. In contrast, regionalisation improves global decadal predictions of half-year precipitation sums in most parts of Europe. The added value results from an increased predictive skill on grid-point basis together with an improvement of the ensemble spread, i.e. the reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the current knowledge on climate change impacts on mass movement activity in mountain environments by illustrating characteristic cases of debris flows, rock slope failures and landslides from the French, Italian, and Swiss Alps. It is expected that events are likely to occur less frequently during summer, whereas the anticipated increase of rainfall in spring and fall could likely alter debris-flow activity during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, and December). The magnitude of debris flows could become larger due to larger amounts of sediment delivered to the channels and as a result of the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events. At the same time, however, debris-flow volumes in high-mountain areas will depend chiefly on the stability and/or movement rates of permafrost bodies, and destabilized rock glaciers could lead to debris flows without historic precedents in the future. The frequency of rock slope failures is likely to increase, as excessively warm air temperatures, glacier shrinkage, as well as permafrost warming and thawing will affect and reduce rock slope stability in the direction that adversely affects rock slope stability. Changes in landslide activity in the French and Western Italian Alps will likely depend on differences in elevation. Above 1500 m asl, the projected decrease in snow season duration in future winters and springs will likely affect the frequency, number and seasonality of landslide reactivations. In Piemonte, for instance, 21st century landslides have been demonstrated to occur more frequently in early spring and to be triggered by moderate rainfalls, but also to occur in smaller numbers. On the contrary, and in line with recent observations, events in autumn, characterized by a large spatial density of landslide occurrences might become more scarce in the Piemonte region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, most of vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where water deficit has become increasingly an issue. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is known to depend on variety characteristics, soil and climate conditions. In this paper, we have carried out a retrospective analysis for important European wine regions over 1986–2015, with objectives to assess the mean Crop Water Stress Indicator (CWSI) during flowering-veraison phase, and potential Yield Lose Rate (YLR) due to seasonal cumulative water stress. Moreover, we also investigate if advanced flowering-veraison phase can lead to alleviated CWSI under recent-past conditions, thus contributing to reduced YLR. A process-based grapevine model is employed, which has been extensively calibrated for simulating both flowering and veraison stages using location-specific observations representing 10 different varieties. Subsequently, grid-based modelling is implemented with gridded climate and soil datasets and calibrated phenology parameters. The findings suggest wine regions with higher mean CWSI of flowering-veraison phase tend to have higher potential YLR. However, contrasting patterns are found between wine regions in France-Germany-Luxembourg and Italy-Portugal-Spain. The former tends to have slight-to-moderate drought conditions (CWSI<0.5) along with a negligible-to-moderate YLR (<30%), whereas the latter is found to have severe-to-extreme drought (CWSI>0.5) and substantial YLR (>40%). Wine regions prone to a high drought risk (CWSI>0.75) are also identified, which are concentrated in southern Mediterranean Europe. Advanced flowering-veraison phase over 1986–2015, could have benefited from more spring precipitation and cooler temperatures for wine regions of Italy-Portugal-Spain, leading to reduced mean CWSI and YLR. For those of France-Germany-Luxembourg, this can have reduced flowering-veraison precipitation, but prevalent reductions of YLR are also found, possibly due to shifted phase towards a cooler growing-season with reduced evaporative demands. Our study demonstrates flowering-verasion water deficit is critical for potential yield, which can have different impacts between Central and Southern European wine regions. This phase can be advanced under a warmer climate, thus having important implications for European rainfed vineyards. The overall outcome may provide new insights for appropriate viticultural management of seasonal water deficits under climate change. • Water stress of a drought-sensitive period is assessed for European rainfed vineyards. • Wine regions prone to a high flowering-veraison drought risk are identified. • Flowering-veraison water stress strongly affects water-limited potential yields. • Advanced flowering-veraison phase differently impacts European wine regions. • The outcomes improve understandings of seasonal water deficits of rainfed viticulture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate change affects the state of inland water bodies and their water balance, which is determined by a number of hydrometeorological and hydrogeological factors. An integral characteristic of changes in the water balance is the behavior of the level of lakes and reservoirs, which not only largely determines the physical and ecological state of water bodies, but also significantly affects the coastal infrastructure and socio-economic development of the region. This paper investigates the interannual variability of the level of the Ladoga and Onega lakes, the largest lakes in Europe located in the northwest of Russia, according to satellite altimetry data for 1993–2020. For this purpose, we used three specialized altimetry databases: DAHITI, G-REALM, and HYDROWEB. Water level data from these altimetry databases were compared with in-situ records at water level gauge stations. Information on air temperature (1945–2019) and precipitation (1966–2019) acquired at three meteostations located at Ladoga and Onega lakes was used to investigate interannual trends in the regional climate change. Finally, we discuss the potential impact of the lake level rise and regional climate warming on the infrastructure and operability of railways in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the vulnerability to flooding and erosion of four open beach study sites in Europe. A framework for the quantitative estimation of present and future coastal flood and erosion risks is established using methods, data and tools from across a range of disciplines, including topographic and bathymetric data, climate data from observation, hindcast and model projections, statistical modelling of current and future climates and integrated risk analysis tools. Uncertainties in the estimation of future coastal system dynamics are considered, as are the consequences for the inland systems. Different implementations of the framework are applied to the study sites which have different wave, tidal and surge climate conditions. These sites are: Santander, Spain—the Atlantic Ocean; Bellocchio, Italy—the Adriatic Sea; Varna, Bulgaria—the Black Sea; and the Teign Estuary, UK—the northern Atlantic Ocean. The complexity of each system is first simplified by sub-division into coastal “impact units” defined by homogeneity in the local key forcing parameters: wave, wind, tide, river discharge, run-off, etc. This reduces the simulation to that of a number of simpler linear problems which are treated by applying the first two components of the Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (S–P–R–C) approach. The case studies reveal the flexibility of this approach, which is found useful for the rapid assessment of the risks of flooding and erosion for a range of scenarios and the likely effectiveness of flood defences. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper deals with the management problem how to decide on tree species suitability under changing environmental conditions. It presents an algorithm that classifies the output of a range shift model for major tree species in Europe into multiple classes that can be linked to qualities characterizing the ecological niche of the species. The classes: i) Core distribution area, ii) Extended distribution area, iii) Occasional occurrence area, and iv) No occurrence area are first theoretically developed and then statistically described. The classes are interpreted from an ecological point of view using criteria like population structure, competitive strength, site spectrum and vulnerability to biotic hazards. The functioning of the algorithm is demonstrated using the example of a generalized linear model that was fitted to a pan-European dataset of presence/absence of major tree species with downscaled climate data from a General Circulation Model (GCM). Applications of the algorithm to tree species suitability classification on a European and regional level are shown. The thresholds that are used by the algorithm are precision-based and include Cohen's Kappa. A validation of the algorithm using an independent dataset of the German National Forest Inventory shows good accordance of the statistically derived classes with ecological traits for Norway spruce, while the differentiation especially between core and extended distribution for European beech that is in the centre of its natural range in this area is less accurate. We hypothesize that for species in the core of their range regional factors like forest history superimpose climatic factors. Problems of uncertainty issued from potentially applying a multitude of modelling approaches and/or climate realizations within the range shift model are discussed and a way to deal with the uncertainty by revealing the underlying attitude towards risk of the decision maker is proposed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Europe and in particular its southern part are expected to undergo serious climate changes during summer in response to anthropogenic forcing, with large surface warming and decrease in precipitation. Yet, serious uncertainties remain, especially over central and western Europe. Several mechanisms have been suggested to be important in that context but their relative importance and possible interplays are still not well understood. In this paper, the role of soil-atmosphere interactions, cloud-temperature interactions and land-sea warming contrast in summer European climate change and how they interact are analyzed. Models for which evapotranspiration is strongly limited by soil moisture in the present climate are found to tend to simulate larger future decrease in evapotranspiration. Models characterized by stronger present-day anti-correlation between cloud cover and temperature over land tend to simulate larger future decrease in cloud cover. Large model-to-model differences regarding land-sea warming contrast and its impacts are also found. Warming over land is expected to be larger than warming over sea, leading to a decrease in continental relative humidity and precipitation because of the discrepancy between the change in atmospheric moisture capacity over land and the change in specific humidity. Yet, it is not true for all the models over our domain of interest. Models in which evapotranspiration is not limited by soil moisture and with a weak present-day anti-correlation between cloud cover and temperature tend to simulate smaller land surface warming. In these models, change in specific humidity over land is therefore able to match the continental increase in moisture capacity, which leads to virtually no change in continental relative humidity and smaller precipitation change. Because of the physical links that exist between the response to anthropogenic forcing of important impact-related climate variables and the way some mechanisms are simulated in the context of present-day variability, this study suggests some potentially useful metrics to reduce summer European climate change uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reference conditions are a key concept of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). This directive holds that the ecological status of a particular water body shall be assessed by quantifying the deviation from the typical reference conditions which refer to a stable state of an ecosystem in the absence of significant human disturbance. This concept is subject to criticism from several authors, all the more since global change will deeply modify the functioning of aquatic ecosystems and their associated biocenosis, whatever the impacts of human activities at local scale. In this paper, an ecologist and a sociologist reconsider the social and scientific construction of the reference conditions concept and associated rules ("one out - all out"). We explain its origin, success and limits, as well as the questions it raises. We point out aspects not considered in this concept and why it challenges the WFD implementation and future management of rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Offshore wind has the potential of becoming an important pillar of the future European energy system. It can contribute to policy objectives on climate change, energy security, green growth and social progress. However, the large potential of offshore wind does not automatically lead to a large share in future energy systems; neither does the emergent stage of development of the technology. Recent insights in innovation studies suggest that the success chances of technological innovations are, to a large extent, determined by how the surrounding system—the innovation system—is built up and how it functions. In this paper we assess the offshore wind innovation systems of four countries: Denmark, the UK, the Netherlands and Germany with the objective to provide recommendations for strengthening the overall European offshore wind innovation system. We use the Technological Innovation System (TIS) approach to analyse the system in 2011. Based on the analysis we identify a number of challenges that the European offshore wind sector faces. Some of them include: a serious deficiency of engineers; fragmented policies and poor alignment of national regulatory frameworks; cost of the technology and limited grid infrastructure. Since the problems hinder the entire system development we call for a systemic policy instrument that would support the innovation system around this technology and contribute to its wider diffusion in Europe. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper focuses on the potential use of insurance as a climate change adaptation mechanism in agriculture. We analyse the attractiveness of a climate risk insurance scheme and the choices farmers face between adaptation via farm management practices and purchase of crop insurance in the market. A choice experiment is used to reveal Danish farmers' preferences regarding an insurance contract where adoption of land management practices to improve soil sustainability is conditional for obtaining insurance cover in the market. Results indicate that in general arable farmers and farmers with low soil quality who have experienced crop damages in the past are more likely to purchase such conditional insurance. Farmers with good quality soils, who perceive that they have already adapted their practices to climatic risks and who have not experienced losses due to adverse climatic events in the past are less willing to purchase insurance. The paper contributes to the limited knowledge on preferences for climate risk related insurance in agricultural systems in general, and in Europe in particular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most important goals included in the Europe 2020 Strategy are climate/energy targets, which determine not only the achievement of its other goals but also climate neutrality by 2050. This article aims to assess the efficiency of implementing the climate/energy targets of the Europe 2020 Strategy and to analyse changes over time, taking into consideration the structural diversity between the old (EU 15) and new EU members (EU 13) in the period of 2014–2018. The assessment of changes in the efficiency of climate/energy targets over time adds value to the evaluation methods used to date in this area. This was done using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist index. Earlier works usually specified only the level of target achievement, mostly jointly in relation to all of the goals of the Europe 2020 Strategy. The efficiency of their implementation at the macroeconomic level has not been studied. Furthermore, the added value of this paper consists in obtaining additional information concerning the internal structure and character of the studied efficiency of old and new member states. Changes in the efficiency level have been analysed with regard to the key climate/energy indicators used to monitor the Europe 2020 Strategy. Based on the results, the EU countries were divided into six groups with similar levels of efficiency in achieving energy and climate objectives and ranked using the DEA–Malmquist index according to changes in their level over time. This makes it possible not only to assess the performance of countries but also to formulate recommendations for decision-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already being felt in Europe, unequivocally affecting the regions' geo-structures. Concern over this is rising, as reflected in the increasing number of studies on the subject. However, the majority of these studies focused only on slopes and on a limited geographical scope. In this paper, we attempted to provide a broader picture of potential climate change impacts on the geo-structures in Europe by gathering the collective view of geo-engineers and geo-scientists in several countries, and by considering different geo-structure types. We also investigated how geo-structural concerns are being addressed in national adaptation plans. We found that specific provisions for geo-structural adaptation are generally lacking and mainly come in the form of strategies for specific problems. In this regard, two common strategies are hazard/risk assessment and monitoring, which are mainly implemented in relation to slope stability. We recommend that in future steps, other geo-structures are likewise given attention, particularly those assessed as also potentially significantly affected by climate change. Countries considered in this study are mainly the member countries of the European Large Geotechnical Institutes Platform (ELGIP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper summarises materials on the mammal remains in northeastern Europe, dated by radiocarbon. Altogether, 23 local faunas of small mammals and 47 local faunas of large mammals were analysed. Multidimensional statistical analysis shows a strong correlation between changes in small mammal fauna composition and climate changes throughout time. The correlations with the spatial gradients, however, are less pronounced. The faunas are classified into three groups: (1) faunas of Holocene age; (2) Late Pleistocene 'stadial' assemblages; and (3) Late Pleistocene 'interstadial' assemblages. In some cases, changes in species abundance are better understood in terms of biotic interrelations rather than of climatic effects. The most pronounced change in small mammal fauna composition and structure occurred at the Preboreal/ Boreal boundary, and a less conspicuous alteration took place at the LGM/Lateglacial transition. The most noticeable transformation in the large mammal fauna composition is dated to the early Holocene. Less significant changes are observed at the Middle Weichselian/ LGM transition and at the LGM/Lateglacial transition. It is safely concluded that variations in the faunas of small and large mammals recorded in NE Europe during the last 35 000 years occurred synchronously and unidirectionally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the combination of terrestrial vegetation observations from two sensors, providing a historical dataset used for an in-depth analysis of the corresponding spatio-temporal patterns. The Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) is an important variable suitable for regional to large-scale monitoring of climate impacts on vegetation. In this work, we create an extensive dataset of FAPAR using a 10-day product at ∼1 km resolution from September, 1997, to April, 2012, combining information from two sensors: the NASA/Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the European Space Agency (ESA)/Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer Instrument (MERIS). The proposed methodology reduces the noise, fills the gaps and corrects for the spurious trends in the data, providing a time-consistent coverage of FAPAR. We develop a fast merging method and evaluate its performance over Europe and the Horn of Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Ricardian approach has been applied to many different geographic contexts and most applications concern large countries. Only few studies deal with Europe. This paper applies the Ricardian approach to measure the impact of climate on the agricultural system of a small Italian Alpine region where permanent cultivations are the main crop. Structural and economic data about farmers growing apples and grapes are extracted from the Italian Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). It tests three possible functional forms and it highlights the importance of controlling not only for farms’ characteristics but also for farmers’ strategic decisions such as specialization and quality certification. In contrast with overall beneficial effects of climate change found for broad areas in Europe (Germany and England), climate change seems to imply a reduction in annual net revenues in our study area. From a methodological point of view, results show that if there is enough climatic variation across the sample and suitable control variables are available, the Ricardian approach can be applied also on a small territorial scale, even though the results depend heavily on the adopted functional form. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To meet the goals of the directive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings, the building sector in Europe now faces a transition towards more energy efficient buildings. Research and development of new energy solutions and technology will be necessary for the transition and the importance of analyzing building energy performance increases. This paper aims to review and evaluate different methods that are commonly used to analyze energy performance in residential buildings in Nordic countries, primarily in Sweden, Norway and Finland. A short international review of regulations is also included. The goal is to find commonly used methods and possibilities for the future. The introduced methods are summarized, categorized and compared based on their advantages and disadvantages. Although the three Nordic countries have similar climate conditions and building traditions, the review shows relatively large variations in the definitions of energy performance for residential buildings, as well as variations in how measurements and calculations are used in the methods for energy performance analysis. In the conducted review, methods, or parts of methods, are also found to be used. The methods used to analyze energy performance are found to be more similar than the concepts of energy performance itself in the three countries. These aspects may be considered in further work to develop an international policy practice for energy performance of residential buildings in cold climate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Energy efficiency in buildings is essential for economic, social, and environmental reasons. Under current European legislation, buildings have to be certified with an energy efficiency index. To provide a fair comparison of the energy performance in buildings we need a global and unified representation. In this paper we propose the Energy Efficiency Ontology (EEOnt) to provide a foundation upon which this requirement can be built. EEOnt extends the applicability of other ontological models of buildings incorporating energy efficiency data and knowledge that can be calculated with high spatial and temporal resolution in what we call an Energy Efficiency Landscape (EELB). These EELB''s provide significant information which allows a detailed diagnosis of the energy efficiency within the building. Consequently, EEOnt is capable of representing buildings and energy efficiency in a unified way. Furthermore, it supplies a tool for managing the energy efficiency in buildings and constructing national inventories. These two features link the global and particular needs of governments and users, thus becoming key to both improve the energy efficiency in buildings and to implement viable certification schemes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Energy production from anaerobic digestion of organic waste and dedicated digestable biomass is a promising climate change mitigation option. Over the last ten years anaerobic digestion has become established in many European countries. The plants have been developed for renewable energy generation, but also to control the emission of odors from zootechnical farms and to stabilize biomass before its agronomic use. In Italy the subsidies available for power generation from biomass have given rise to renewed interest in biogas, creating new opportunities for the agricultural and livestock sectors. Despite of this, in Southern Italy the manure is highly dispersed over a large number of small-size cattle farms, while power generation facilities are affected by scale economies and the aggregation of input biomass is a major logistic, managing, economic and environmental drawback towards the diffusion of such technologies. In this paper, an investment decision methodology for the assessment of optimal size and feedstock mix of biogas power plants fed by cattle manure and energy crops is presented. The methodology is applied to one of the most promising basins of Puglia region, in Southern Italy, represented by the Municipalities of the Local Action Group “Terra dei Trulli e del Barsento”, Province of Bari. The main factors influencing the profitability of these investments are assessed, with biogas power plant size ranging between 50kW and 1MW, and on the basis of the recently introduced feed-in tariff scheme for such plants (D.M. 6 July 2012). The results show that a high manure recovery rate, the reuse of biogas slurry and the cogeneration options are major key factor for the profitability of the investments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The EU-funded research project WISER ('Water bodies in Europe: Integrative Systems to assess Ecological status and Recovery') developed new assessment methods required by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) for lakes, coastal and transitional waters. WISER also addressed the recovery of biotic assemblages from degradation. The results are summarised in five key messages, supported by papers in this special issue and by WISER results published elsewhere: (1) Response to stress differs between organism groups, water types and stressors; a conceptual model is proposed summarising how the individual organism groups respond to different types of degradation in rivers, lakes, transitional and coastal waters. (2) The sources of uncertainty differ between BQEs and water types, leading to methodological suggestions on how to design WFD sampling programmes. (3) Results from about 300 current assessment methods indicate geographical variations in metrics but assessments are comparable at an aggregated level ('ecological status'). (4) Scale and time matter; restoration requires action at (sub)-basin levels and recovery may require decades. (5) Long-term trends require consideration; the effects of both degradation and restoration at the water body or river basin scales is increasingly superimposed by multiple stressors acting at large scales, in particular by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a changing climate, it is likely that precipitation patterns will experience shifts in amount and seasonality, with a tendency towards increased drought in many parts of Europe. In order to investigate what could be some of the feedbacks of dry conditions on temperature, this paper has investigated close to 30 European locations to assess the influence of observed dry summer days on daily maximum temperature ( Tmax) as well as a clustering of rainless days, and finally the temperature impact related to drought conditions as defined by the Standardized Precipitation Index. The results show that for the three main European climatic regions investigated ('Mediterranean', 'Maritime', 'Continental'), the influence of rainless days is discernible, with an average difference between mean summer Tmax and Tmax during rainless days only of up to 1.5 °C. A further aim of the study is to determine whether recent shifts in the occurrence of rainless days during the summer have a bearing on temperature trends. Results show that shifts in rainless days explain only a fraction of the observed temperature change at the locations studied, thereby hinting that the enhanced greenhouse effect remains the dominant mechanism for temperature change. Finally, using a regional climate model, very preliminary insight into a 'greenhouse climate' highlights the fact that changes in dry conditions seem to confirm the findings for current climate, i.e. they account for only a fraction of the increase in temperatures. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric variables play a fundamental role in driving man-managed ecosystems and more specifically in agro-ecosystems, determining the quantity and quality of crop production. On the other hand, climate variability can be seen as the superimposition of gradual and abrupt changes. This paper is focused on European surface air temperature in the period 1951-2010. Analysis of this dataset identified breakpoints that define two homogeneous sub-periods: 1951-1987 and 1988-2010. Thermal resources for crops were analyzed adopting a 'normal heat hours' approach. Computation highlighted a general increase in thermal resources in the European continent for crop groups II and III (C3 and C4 plants adapted to high or moderate temperatures), while a decline of thermal resources for crop group I (cold adapted C3) was highlighted in the Mediterranean area. The climate variability justifies a change in the potential latitudinal limits of different groups of crops, representing a fundamental step for crop adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Global temperature rise over the long term will be proportional to the total amount of CO2 emitted. Any given probability of exceeding a targeted maximum temperature rise implies a maximum limit on the cumulative total of CO2 that can be emitted: a CO2 “budget”. This paper describes an approach to modelling cumulative emissions from light and heavy duty road transport from the present to 2050, focussing on the USA and Europe, and comparing the potential impacts of a range of technological and behaviourally-based abatement measures with such cumulative emissions budgets. The model shows that abatement measures would have a lower effect on cumulative emissions from 2000 to 2050 than on annual emissions in 2050, so that focussing only on annual emissions could be misleading. It shows that technological developments would be insufficient on their own to enable Europe and the USA to meet CO2 budgets for road transport. Behavioural changes, which potentially can be implemented much sooner, would be essential too. There is potential to keep European light duty emissions very close to CO2 budgets, and US light duty emissions not far above the least restrictive budget, but the model predicts that heavy duty emissions in both regions are likely to exceed their CO2 budgets. Deeper emissions reductions in other regions and sectors will be needed to compensate for this. Timing would be critical: for the greatest impact, behaviour change policies and interventions would need to be applied early and deeply. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper proposes an optimal method for estimating time-dependent climate change signals from general circulation models. The basic idea is to identify vectors that maximize the mean-square detection statistic derived from optimal fingerprinting techniques. The method also provides an objective and systematic procedure for identifying the limit to which a signal can be restricted in space and time without losing detectability. As an illustration, the method is applied to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 multimodel dataset to determine the continental seasonal-mean anomaly in surface air temperature and precipitation that is most detectable, on average, in these models. Anomalies in seasonal-mean surface air temperature are detectable in all seasons by almost all models on all continents but Europe; seasonal-mean anomalies over Europe are undetectable for some models, though this does not preclude other expressions of the signal, such as those that include longer time averages or time-lag information, from being detectable. Detectability in seasonal-mean temperature is found not only for multidecadal warming trends but also for cooling after major volcanic eruptions. In contrast, seasonal-mean precipitation anomalies are detectable in only a few models for averages over 5 yr or more, suggesting that the signal should include more spatiotemporal detail to be detectable across more models. Nevertheless, of the precipitation anomalies that are detectable, the signal appears to be of two characters: a systematic trend and enhanced frequency of extreme values. These results derived from twentieth-century simulations appear to be consistent with previous studies based on twenty-first-century simulations with larger signal-to-noise ratios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is anticipated to affect European agriculture, including the risk of emerging or re-emerging feed and food hazards. Indirectly, climate change may influence such hazards (e.g. the occurrence of mycotoxins) due to geographic shifts in the distribution of major cereal cropping systems and the consequences this may have for crop rotations. This paper analyses the impact of climate on cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat on a 50-km square grid across Europe (45–65°N) and provides model-based estimates of the changes in cropping shares in response to changes in temperature and precipitation as projected for the time period around 2040 by two regional climate models (RCM) with a moderate and a strong climate change signal, respectively. The projected cropping shares are based on the output from the two RCMs and on algorithms derived for the relation between meteorological data and observed cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat. The observed cropping shares show a south-to-north gradient, where maize had its maximum at 45–55°N, oat had its maximum at 55–65°N, and wheat was more evenly distributed along the latitudes in Europe. Under the projected climate changes, there was a general increase in maize cropping shares, whereas for oat no areas showed distinct increases. For wheat, the projected changes indicated a tendency towards higher cropping shares in the northern parts and lower cropping shares in the southern parts of the study area. The present modelling approach represents a simplification of factors determining the distribution of cereal crops, and also some uncertainties in the data basis were apparent. A promising way of future model improvement could be through a systematic analysis and inclusion of other variables, such as key soil properties and socio-economic conditions, influencing the comparative advantages of specific crops. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A continually increasing demand for energy and concerns about climate change, greenhouse gas emissions and peak oil have prompted countries to develop policies that promote renewable energy including forest-based bioenergy. In Europe, fuelwood-driven changes in forestry are likely to impact habitat conditions for forest biodiversity. We conducted a systematic literature overview based on 88 papers to synthesize research findings and gaps in knowledge. At the stand scale, but also on a landscape scale, deadwood availability and profile are altered by several practices: whole-tree harvesting and postharvest recovery of logging residues and stumps, for instance. Large-scale fuelwood removal may, on a landscape scale, jeopardize the amounts and diversity of substrate that saproxylic organisms require as food and habitat. Besides, bioenergy-related forest practices also affect nonsaproxylic biodiversity through physical (e.g., soil compaction and disturbance) and chemical changes in soil properties associated with fuelwood removal and increased machine traffic. Moreover, the extended density of internal edges threatens interior forest species populations. Important effects differ substantially between boreal and nemoral forests because of contrasts in management systems, structure of forest ownership, and ecological properties. Developing relevant operational guidelines to partially mitigate ecological damage on biodiversity should be based on our compiled cautionary statements but require further large-scale and long-term research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper aims to address some gaps in current knowledge by studying temporal and spatial variations in Artemisia pollen counts (2000–2009) at 13 sites located in different biogeographical areas of Central and Eastern Europe. Analysis showed that start dates of Artemisia pollen seasons are greatly dependent on temperature during June and July, with hot summer temperatures having a tendency to delay summer flowering. However, this relationship is not linear and the rate at which seasons become later increases when mean minimum June–July temperatures reach a threshold of about 13°C. No explanation for variations in pollen season intensity could be found. The geographical location or amount of urbanisation did not influence, either positively or negatively, the seasonal pollen index. Second peaks in Artemisia pollen seasons can be described as the pollen seasons of late flowering Artemisia species, and mainly occurred in the geographical area south of the Carpathian Mountains. These second peaks can significantly influence the seasonal pollen index, contributing over 50% to the season''s total Artemisia pollen recorded at one site. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In democratic societies, citizens have the right to know whether their elected representatives address environmental problems successfully or not. Voters can judge their governments’ economic performance by looking at GDP growth and unemployment rates; equally simple measures for environmental policies face a number of obstacles, inter alia: the complexity of the policy field “environment”, lack and quality of data, absence of scientific and political consensus on the relative importance of sub-fields like climate change, waste, and biodiversity, and the tendency of expert communities to get lost in details rather than communicating the big picture. This paper will define rules and show ways for overcoming these obstacles. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Archaeological investigations along the coastlines of Denmark and northern Germany have produced invaluable data concerning the Stone Age, and particularly our Mesolithic fishing, hunting and gathering ancestors. However, a number of different natural and human forces have partially or totally destroyed this important resource, particularly in other parts of North West Europe such as Britain and Ireland. What is more, further problems can be predicted as a consequence of climate change with possible rising sea levels and storm events. This paper considers the value of Mesolithic coastal archaeology, the threats posed to it, and the steps which are being taken to address these threats. The conclusion is that although research and policy is moving ahead, much more needs to be done in order to understand and preserve these sites before it is too late. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the potential predictability of European winter temperature using factors based on physical studies of their influences on European winter climate. These influences include sea surface temperature patterns in different oceans, major tropical volcanoes, the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, and anthropogenic climate change. We first assess the predictive skill for winter mean temperature in northern Europe by evaluating statistical hindcasts made using multiple regression models of temperature for Europe for winter and the January-February season. We follow this up by extending the methodology to all of Europe on a 5° × 5° grid and include rainfall for completeness. These results can form the basis of practical prediction methods. However, our main aim is to develop ideas to act as a benchmark for improving the performance of dynamical climate models. Because we consider only potential predictability, many of the predictors have estimated values coincident with the winter season being forecast. However, in each case, these values are predictable on average with considerable skill in advance of the winter season. A key conclusion is that to reproduce the results of this paper, dynamical forecasting models will require a fully resolved stratosphere. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown copyright, the Met Office [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses two models to examine the direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise for Europe for a range of sea-level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s: (1) the DIVA model to estimate the physical impacts of sea-level rise and the direct economic cost, including adaptation, and (2) the GTAP-EF model to assess the indirect economic implications. Without adaptation, impacts are quite significant with a large land loss and increase in the incidence of coastal flooding. By the end of the century Malta has the largest relative land loss at 12% of its total surface area, followed by Greece at 3.5% land loss. Economic losses are however larger in Poland and Germany ($483 and $391 million, respectively). Coastal protection is very effective in reducing these impacts and optimally undertaken leads to protection levels that are higher than 85% in the majority of European states. While the direct economic impact of sea-level rise is always negative, the final impact on countries' economic performances estimated with the GTAP-EF model may be positive or negative. This is because factor substitution, international trade, and changes in investment patterns interact with possible positive implications. The policy insights are (1) while sea-level rise has negative and huge direct economic effects, overall effects on GDP are quite small (max −0.046% in Poland); (2) the impact of sea-level rise is not confined to the coastal zone and sea-level rise indirectly affects landlocked countries as well (Austria for instance loses −0.003% of its GDP); and (3) adaptation is crucial to keep the negative impacts of sea-level rise at an acceptable level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper introduces an approach to route discharge with a variable river flow velocity based on the Manning–Strickler formula within large scale hydrological models. The approach has been developed for the global scale hydrological model WaterGAP and model results have been analyzed focusing on Europe. The goal was to find a method that is simple enough to derive the required parameters from globally available data while being sophisticated enough to deliver realistic flow velocity estimates for a large variety of environmental conditions. The river bed roughness (Manning’s n) is approximated in a spatially explicit way based on topography, the location of urban population, and river sinuosity. The hydraulic radius is estimated from actual river discharge, and river bed slope is derived by combining a high resolution DEM, a 5arc min drainage direction map, and river sinuosity. The modeled river flow velocity has been validated against data of US gauging stations. The representation of lateral transport has clearly been improved compared to the constant flow velocity applied in older model versions. The effect of incorporating variable flow velocities as compared to a constant flow velocity is largest on flood discharge, which generally increases in large rivers. The impact on monthly discharge hydrographs is marginal only. WaterGAP has been driven by three climate change projections for the 2050s to assess climate change impacts on flow velocity, and on the residence time of water in the European river system. Results indicate a decrease in residence times for Northern Europe and an increase for parts of the Mediterranean. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, societies worldwide have to cope with the potential impacts of climate change. The central question of this paper is to what extent our historically grown institutions enable actors to cope with the new challenges of climate adaptation. We present six qualities of governance institutions that are crucial to allow for, and encourage adaptation, and apply them to the National Adaptation Strategies of the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Finland and Sweden. We conclude that although the governance institutions involved seem to have the basic qualities required, they face five institutional weaknesses, causing tensions on the long term: (1) lack of openness towards learning and variety; (2) strong one-sided reliance on scientific experts; (3) tension between top-down policy development and bottom-up implementation; (4) distrust in the problem-solving capacity of civil society; and (5) wickedness of reserving funding for long-term action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterizing climatic changes in the high-altitude mountain regions helps scientists and policy makers understand the effects of such changes on water resources, economic development, and the health of ecosystems. This paper proposes a change-point analysis to determine the time and magnitude of summer temperature changes in the summit areas of Romanian Carpathians between 1961 and 2007. Due to their altitude, massiveness, and position, Romanian Carpathians are an important barrier for different types of air masses between Western and Southeastern Europe. The results show that the change in summer temperatures occurred shortly after 1980. The average magnitude of this change is consistent with changes occurring in other parts of Southern Europe in the same time period although the magnitude of changes at individual weather stations may differ substantially. We aided our analysis by a statistical method based on regression models with serially correlated ARMA errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In many cultivated areas of the loess belt in Northern Europe, loamy soils are particularly sensitive to runoff and erosion. Those processes may not be continuous within a catchment, and runoff and erosion responses to rainfall events differ depending on the study scale at which they are examined. Many of the underlying mechanisms of this scale effect are still unknown and/or not well described. The objective of this paper is to identify and quantify the scale effects on runoff and erosion, from the field scale to the catchment scale in the context of the Austreberthe catchment, located in Normandy, in an agricultural area of the loess belt. Based on extensive information compiled at the hillslope and the catchment scales, the runoff and erosion budgets are compared between both scales, showing a more important decreasing effect for erosion (95%) than for runoff (85%) when moving from the hillslope to the catchment scale. The reduction due to the scale change is linear for runoff but not for erosion, underlining the complexity of erosion processes. Comparison of these budgets between both scales shows a significant effect of the vegetation cover as an important connectivity parameter at the hillslope scale, but not at the catchment scale. The importance of the connectivity is also quantified when comparing runoff and erosion budgets between two states of the catchment connectivity: the connectivity without soil and water conservation measures and a modified connectivity (with soil and water conservation measures). This change of connectivity in the catchment was estimated to lead to a decrease in discharge and erosion rates of 50% and 90%, respectively. Finally, the sediment budget analysis from the field to the river basin scale shows that 80% of the mobilised sediments on the slopes are deposited before reaching the Austreberthe River. From the Austreberthe catchment (215km2) to the Seine River Basin (more than 65,000km2 the calculated reduction of the erosion rate is only 25%. In this context, the scale effect is more important on hillslopes, where there is not any permanent river channel and where connectivity depends on rainfall events and landscape organisation, than in catchments drained by perennial rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-derived high-resolution precipitation products (HRPP) have been developed to address the needs of the user community and are now available with 0.25° × 0.25° (or less) subdaily resolutions. This paper evaluates a number of commonly available satellite-derived HRPPs covering northwest Europe over a 6-yr period. Precipitation products include the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing (CMORPH) technique, the CPC merged microwave technique, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) blended technique, and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) technique. In addition, the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index (GPI) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational forecast model products are included for comparison. Surface reference data from the European radar network is used as ground truth, supported by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation gauge analysis and gauge data over the United Kingdom. Measures of correlation, bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio are used to evaluate the products. Results show that satellite products generally exhibit a seasonal cycle in correlation, bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio, with poorer statistics during the winter. The ECMWF model also shows a seasonal cycle in the correlation, although the results are poorer during the summer, while the bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio are consistent through all seasons. Importantly, all the satellite HRPPs underestimate precipitation over northwest Europe in all seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]