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Abstract: The disappearance of Neanderthals from the Palaeolithic record in Europe remains an enigma, even after more than 150 years of research. This paper identifies Rapid Climate Change during the Glacial period as a major factor that influences a variety of cultural, economic and demographic processes during the European Palaeolithic. In particular, and in agreement with many previous authors, climatic deterioration is put forward to explain multiple population breakdown during the European Palaeolithic, as well as to explain corresponding major cultural changes. Taking the archaeological record of the Iberian Peninsula as a case study, the Repeated Replacement Model (RRM) is proposed to explain population turnover in Europe during the most extreme climatic phases of the Glacial, the occurrence of North Atlantic Heinrich Events (HE). The strong aridity of the Mediterranean during HEs appears to have limited settlement refugia to such an extreme extent that communication networks and cultural traditions broke down and were subsequently reorganized under different socio-cultural conditions. The transition from the Middle Palaeolithic to the Aurignacian during HE 4 is one of these cultural turnover periods, which saw the final (macro-scale) extinction of Neanderthals and their widespread replacement by Anatomically Modern Humans. More specifically, and recognizable by comparisons with other climatically extreme Glacial periods (i.e. HE 3, and HE 2), the model excludes the survival of geographically wider (supra-regional) human networks, but it does allow for (micro-scale) survival of scattered groups. From this model, some kind of admixture between Neanderthals and incoming groups of modern humans would indeed have been possible on a small scale. If this climatic scenario turns out to be correct, the most spectacular thing about Neanderthal disappearance might actually lie in the seemingly unspectacular nature of the processes involved. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: The European Alps are one region of the world where climate-driven changes are already perceptible, as exemplified by the general retreat of mountain glaciers over past decades. Temperatures have risen by up to 2°C since 1900 particularly at high elevations, a rate that is roughly three times the global-average 20th century warming. Regional climate models suggest that by 2100, winters in Switzerland may warm by 3–5°C and summers by 6–7°C according to greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, while precipitation is projected to increase in winter and sharply decrease in summer. The impacts of these levels of climatic change will affect both the natural environment and a number of economic activities. Alpine glaciers may lose between 50% and 90% of their current volume and the average snowline will rise by 150m for each degree of warming. Hydrological systems will respond in quantity and seasonality to changing precipitation patterns and to the timing of snow-melt in the Alps, with a greater risk of flooding during the spring and droughts in summer and fall. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, agriculture and the insurance industry that will be confronted to more frequent natural disasters. This paper will thus provide an overview of the current state of knowledge on climatic change and its impacts on the Alpine world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper identifies socio-economic driving forces of biodiversity change and analyses their political and economic dynamics by modelling socio-economic parts of three scenario storylines developed for the ALARM (assessing large-scale risks for biodiversity with tested methods) project. In the BAMBU (business-as-might-be-usual) scenario policy decisions already made in the European Union (EU) are implemented and enforced, but no additional measures are introduced. The GRAS (growth applied strategy) scenario describes a future world orientated towards economic growth and complete deregulation. And finally, SEDG (sustainable European development goal) is a normative scenario focusing on the achievement of sustainable development. Methods The GINFORS (global inter-industry forecasting system) model is applied to quantify the effects of different sets of policy measures representing the three scenarios. It allows investigation of the inter-relations between socio-economic driving forces and the state of the environment. Results The presented results for the 25 EU countries focus on the following variables: unemployment, material extraction, energy supply and CO2 emissions. The lowest amount of unemployment is in the SEDG scenario, where it steadily decreases from 2005 to 2020. In BAMBU it falls to a level that is also below that of 2005. In GRAS, the number of unemployed people in 2020 is clearly over the value of 2005. The development of total material extraction from 2005 to 2020 is nearly stable in BAMBU, while it clearly increases in GRAS. Only in SEDG is there a reduction in resource use. None of the scenarios achieves a substantial reduction in energy use. However, the development of CO2 emissions shows a decoupling from energy supply. For BAMBU there is a slight decline in CO2 emissions over time, for GRAS they increase but with a slightly smaller growth rate than energy supply. In SEDG the emissions are reduced. The decoupling trends can be explained by a shift to more renewable energy sources in all scenarios, with the highest share in SEDG. Main conclusions The results indicate that a growth-oriented policy design, such as presented in the GRAS scenario, is not compatible with the conservation of biodiversity. Only in the SEDG scenario do the policy measures support the idea of a sustainable development, but in some respects they are still not ambitious enough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A few concurrent and/or counteracting factors (increase of average air temperature, rainfall shortage, drought, CO2 enrichment, ozone, nitrogen fertilization, sulphate deposition) drive today the soil-tree-atmosphere relationships in the Mediterranean area. Radial stem growth measured within the ICPForests level II Italian network provides a sensitive response to these occurrences. Climate fluctuations and repeated anomalous seasons or extreme events are the major evidences of the change in progress. The 2003 heat wave is the main event occurred in this decade over large part of Europe. In Italy, it provoked a marked water deficit coupled to high air temperature, which resulted in a heavy water stress. The growth performance in different forest types was analyzed in this paper: growth rate in 2000-2004, compared with 1997- 1999, showed reductions up to 50% on half of the plots examined. Most of them were: (i) in northern-central Italy within the southern continental border of the climatic deviation; (ii) at low elevation, which is more sensitive to high air temperature and drought; (iii) made up of deciduous broadleaved forests (beech and oaks), i.e., species showing growth effects also in the following year. Over the time-window 2005-2009, a significant growth decrease was vice-versa detected within the coniferous spruce forests located at medium- high elevation in the Alps. Repeated seasonal deviations in temperature and rainfall were recorded in the Alps in 2005-2009. Climate effects at local scale were examined in a site where two oak species with a different auto-ecology (sessile oak and Turkey oak) grow together. The on-going change produced heavy mortality and reduced the growth of the more demanding and less drought-tolerant sessile oak; in a few years Turkey oak became prevailing in the stand composition and structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An appropriate hydrological regime within a wetland is essential to maintain its goods and services. This regime is related to the source of the water, which differs for particular kinds of wetlands. This paper presents an overview of the ecosystem services of European wetlands, based on a representative sample of 102 protected wetlands larger than 5000 ha, and the implications of hydrological alterations caused by future climate and socio-economic changes. Six major ecosystem services of wetlands were assessed namely: biodiversity in terms of plants and animals, biomass production, nutrient removal, carbon storage and fish production. Data showed that, on average, four services were present in each wetland. The impact of climate change, water management and land-use change was examined under different future scenarios. Major potential changes in hydrological regime (i.e. precipitation, groundwater recharge and river flow) were quantified up to the 2050s using simulated runoff and river flow data of the WaterGAP model driven by the climate input of two different general circulation models (GCMs), IPCM4 and MIMR. Thresholds of hydrological change that would endanger each ecosystem service were identified. The impacts of future scenarios were distributed across Europe with potential threats to ecosystem services of European wetlands resulting in the loss of between 26 and 46% of all identified ecosystem services in 2050. The models and scenarios suggest that the most significant loss of ecosystem services is likely to occur in Central Europe (Hungary, Germany, France, Belarus, Poland). In general, the most fragile services (the largest number lost) are projected to be those connected to the surface water dynamics—mostly the services of wetland birds and fish spawning. Ecosystem services dependent on groundwater dynamics and water balance changes are seemingly more buffered against the expected hydrological stress. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Okruszko, T., Duel, H., Acreman, M., Grygoruk, M., Flörke, M. and Schneider, C., 2011. Broad-scale ecosystem services of European wetlands—overview of the current situation and future perspectives under different climate and water management scenarios. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (8), 1501–1517. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: In the Old World, sandfly species of the genus Phlebotomus are known vectors of Leishmania, Bartonella and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing European climate are missing. Methodology: Here, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using MaxEnt for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for Leishmania infantum, which are either predominantly located in (south-) western (Phlebotomus ariasi, P. mascittii and P. perniciosus) or south-eastern Europe (P. neglectus and P. perfiliewi). The determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) for Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) using data of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. We detected the most likely way of natural dispersal ("least-cost path") for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed. Results and Relevance: Results indicate that the Central European climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. In general, the highest suitability of Central Europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for P. perfiliewi. Nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. A northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the Alps. Our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. This is urgently needed for adaptation and coping strategies against the emerging spread of sandfly-borne diseases. Author Summary: Growing evidence exists on the emergence of sandfly-borne diseases in the light of climate change. Determining the principle responses of phlebotomine sandflies to climatic changes supports our understanding of future regions that will be threatened by new-establishments of this important group of disease vectors. The aim of this paper is to combine projected climatic suitability for five Phlebotomus species in Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) for different time-periods during the 21st century with their potential spreading capacity to disperse to climatically suitable areas. We indicate that the Central European climate will develop toward the preferred bioclimatic niche of the species, especially from mid-century onwards. Nevertheless, we also elucidate within this study that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy the whole areas that will provide suitable climatic conditions due to their limited natural dispersal ability. Our approach provides a framework to combine statistical modelling techniques with expert knowledge on species ecology. Indications of future occurrences of disease vectors may help to initiate surveillance systems in specific regions at an early stage of risk exposure. Hence, the threat of the climate-driven spatial extension of disease vectors and consequently of potentially emerging vector-borne diseases can be counteracted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data with their long-term (1981–current) global coverage at frequent intervals provide unique opportunities to explore vegetation dynamics related to climate variability, climate change, and land-use driven changes of land cover. Several AVHRR-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data sets exist, each based on the AVHRR Global Area Coverage archive but differing in their processing to correct for sensor and atmospheric effects. This paper presents a global comparative analysis for the land surface involving four AVHRR-derived NDVI data sets: (1) Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL); (2) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS); (3) Land Long Term Data Record (LTDR) version 3 (V3); and (4) Fourier-Adjustment, Solar zenith angle corrected, Interpolated Reconstructed (FASIR). Our aims are two-fold: (1) to assess the level of agreement of the medians, trends, and variances, as well as the correlation between the four AVHRR–NDVI data sets from 1982 to 1999; and (2) to independently assess the performance of each AVHRR–NDVI data set, and that of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI, using 11,764 Landsat samples of 20×20km2 located globally covering every major land-cover type. For the AVHRR–NDVI intercomparison equal medians, variance, and trends, and no correlation between all the respective AVHRR–NDVI data sets were found for 9.9%, 45.5%, 48.1% and 38.4% of the total land surface, respectively (p ≥0.05). For the four AVHRR–NDVI data sets we found: (1) consistent trends for the tundra and particularly Australia; (2) inconsistent trends for Europe, Africa, and the Sahel; and (3) moderately consistent trends for the rest of the terrestrial land surface including North America and China. The PAL and LTDR V3 data sets lack calibration, as evidenced by the presence of apparent trends in desert areas. In the Landsat–NDVI vs. AVHRR–NDVI comparison of absolute values the LTDR V3 data set performed best, whereas in the comparison of temporal-change values the GIMMS data set performed best. In both analyses MODIS–NDVI performed better than any AVHRR–NDVI data set. The simple average of the four AVHRR–NDVI data sets produced better results than either AVHRR–NDVI data set alone, indicating that the errors between the data sets are at least partially unrelated. This research emphasizes the implications of AVHRR–NDVI data set choice for studies assessing the vegetation response to climate change and modeling of the terrestrial carbon balance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Bankfull flow is a relevant parameter in the field of large scale modelling especially for the analysis of environmental flows and flood related hydrological processes. In our case, bankfull flow data were required within the SCENES project in order to analyse ecological important inundation events at selected grid cells of a European raster. In practise, the determination of bankfull flow is a complex task even on local scale. Subsequent to a literature survey of bankfull flow studies, this paper describes a method which can be applied to estimate bankfull flow on a global or continental grid cell raster. The method is based on the partial duration series approach taking into account a 40-years time series of daily discharge data modelled by the global water model WaterGAP. An increasing threshold censoring procedure, a declustering scheme and the generalised Pareto distribution are applied. Modelled bankfull flow values are then validated by different efficiency criteria against bankfull flows observed at gauging stations in Europe. Thereby, the impact of (i) the applied distribution function, (ii) the threshold setting in the partial duration series, (iii) the climate input data and (iv) applying the annual maxima series are evaluated and compared to the proposed approach. The results show that bankfull flow can be reasonably estimated with a high model efficiency (E 1 =0.71) and weighted correlation (ωr 2 =0.90) as well as a systematic overestimation of 22.8%. Finally it turned out that in our study focusing on hydrological extremes, the appliance of the daily climate input data is a basic requirement. While the choice of the distribution function had no significant impact on the final results, the threshold setting in the partial duration series was crucial. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Two of the most important topics in Sea Level Science are addressed in this paper. One is concerned with the evidence for the apparent acceleration in the rate of global sea level change between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and, thereby, with the question of whether the twentieth century sea level rise was a consequence of an accelerated climate change of anthropogenic origin. An acceleration is indeed observed in both tide gauge and saltmarsh data at different locations around the world, yielding quadratic coefficients 'c' of order 0.005 mm/year, and with the most rapid changes of rate of sea level rise occurring around the end of the nineteenth century. The second topic refers to whether there is evidence that extreme sea levels have increased in recent decades at rates significantly different from those in mean levels. Recent results, which suggest that at most locations rates of change of extreme and mean sea levels are comparable, are presented. In addition, a short review is given of recent work on extreme sea levels by other authors. This body of work, which is focused primarily on Europe and the Mediterranean, also tends to support mean and extreme sea levels changing at similar rates at most locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes seasonal peculiarities of modern climate warming in the European region. It is shown that warming scenarios considerably differ in cold and warm periods of the year. The warming is accompanied with growth and considerable change in the phase of the yearly cycle in solarity data. A strong half-year cycle is recognized in seasonal variation of long-term trends over the last few years. Peculiarities of climate change in Europe and the increased influence of the tropics are discussed in view of the results obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe's highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas, along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian, Boreal and Mediterranean species, and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century, we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains, and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities, particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, in the western Mediterranean, one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions, all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity, which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming, and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Understanding climate patterns, with their decisive influence on plant distribution and development, is crucial to understanding the history of vegetation patterns in Europe during the Miocene. This paper presents the detailed analyses of several precipitation parameters, including monthly precipitation of the wettest, driest and warmest months, for five Miocene stages. In conjunction with seasonality of temperature, those parameters provide a meaningful measure of continentality and can help to document Miocene climate changes and patterns and their possible influence on vegetation. Climate reconstructions provided here are entirely based on palaeobotanical material. In total, 169 Miocene floras were selected, including 14 Burdigalian, 41 Langhian, 40 Serravallian, 36 Tortonian, and 38 Messinian localities. All floras were analysed using the Coexistence Approach. The analysis of several precipitation parameters, the statistical inter-correlation of results, and the comparison with modern patterns provides a comprehensive account on Miocene precipitation. Miocene climatic changes after the Mid Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) are evidenced in our data set by three major factors, i.e. (1) increasing seasonality of temperature, (2) changes in the annual distribution of precipitation towards a precipitation peak in summer, and (3) a late increase of longitudinal gradients of precipitation parameters. Evidence of continental climate in Eastern Europe first appears during the Messinian. In addition to changes in temperature, shifts in the annual distribution of precipitation may have played a major role in post-Langhian climate changes. However, the most significant climatic transformations occurred later, from the end of Miocene through to the present. Several authors have described patterns of vegetation development in Europe that are in good agreement with our finding of the first evidence for continental climate in Eastern Europe during the Messinian. Our data do not support an onset of opening of vegetation during the Tortonian or even earlier, as has been described for some parts of Eastern and Southern Europe. Possibly either non climatic parameters influenced such an early development, or our data lack the required resolution and/or spatial coverage to fully decipher the influence of continentality on vegetation and to correlate climate and vegetation statistically. Nevertheless, climatic data that quantify continentality can provide a sound basis for explaining the expansion of grassland in Eurasia. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climatic changes, together with an increase in the movement of dogs across Europe, have caused an increase in the geographical range of Dirofilaria infections. The present paper is focuses on northeastern European countries, where survey data have shown an increase of Dirofilaria repens infections both in animals and humans. A growing degree day-based forecast model has been developed to predict the occurrence. The model is based on evidence that there is a threshold of 14°C below which Dirofilaria development will not proceed in mosquitoes, there is a requirement of 130 growing degree-days (GDDs) for larvae to reach infectivity, and there is a maximum life expectancy of 30 days for a mosquito vector. The output of this model predicted that the summer temperatures (with peaks in August) are sufficient to facilitate extrinsic incubation of Dirofilaria even at latitudes of 56°N and longitudes of 39°E. Despite the fact that both Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens have the same temperature requirement for extrinsic incubation in mosquitoes, empirical data has shown that D. repens is the main cause of dirofilarial infections in both humans and animals. Clinical signs are absent in most canine infections with D. repens. Furthermore, diagnosis is problematic and in-clinic serological tests, such as those for D. immitis, do not exist. Therefore, most infections go undiagnosed, allowing the infection to spread undetected. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In coastal dunes, landscape changes are a rule, rather than an exception. This paper gives an overview of changes in landscape and vegetation with a focus on the past century. The history of dunes is characterised by phases of sand drift, alternated with geomorphological stability. The historical development of dune woodland during these stable phases has been documented for sites all over Europe. Vegetation reconstructions of historical open dune habitats however is very difficult due to limited preservation of fossil remains. People have drastically altered coastal dune landscapes through centuries of exploitation and more recently development of the coast. Historical land use has generally pushed vegetation back into a semi-natural state. During roughly the past century a tendency of increasing fixation and succession is observed on coastal dunes throughout northwest Europe. Six causes of change are discussed. 1) Changes in land use, mainly abandonment of agricultural practices, have led to the development of late successional stages such as scrub and woodland. 2) Crashing rabbit populations due to myxomatosis in the 1950s caused vigorous grass growth and probably stimulated scrub development. 3) A general tendency of landscape fixation is observed due to both natural and anthropogenic factors. 4) Eutrophication, mainly due to atmospheric nitrogen deposition is clearly linked to grass encroachment on acidic but also on some calcareous dunes. 5) The impact of climate change on vegetation is still unclear but probably lengthening of growing season and maybe enhanced CO concentrations have led to an acceleration of succession. 6) A general anthropogenisation of the landscape occurs with rapid spread of non-native species as an important consequence. The reconstruction of a natural reference landscape is considered largely unattainable because of irreversible changes and the long tradition of human impact, in many cases since the development of the dunes. Two contradictory elements need reconciliation. First, the general acceleration of succession and scrub and woodland development in particular is partly caused by a decreased anthropogenic interference in the landscape and deserves more appreciation. Second, most biodiversity values are largely linked to open, early succession dune habitats and are threatened by the same tendency. Apart from internal nature management, in which grazing plays an important part, re-mobilisation of stable, senescent dunes is an important challenge for dune management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Changes in the ocean tide during the 20th century have been reported for several parts of the world by different authors. However, it has not always been clear whether the observed changes have been local or regional in scale. This paper reports on a survey of tidal changes in recent decades using a quasi-global data set of tide gauge information. Little evidence has been found in Europe or the Far East (including Australasia and Asia) for the extensive regional changes to the main tidal constituents reported recently for N America. However, evidence for change in smaller regions can be identified wherever the density of tide gauge information allows. Therefore, it seems that tidal changes may be commonplace around the world, although not necessarily with large spatial scales. All of the reported changes have been difficult to explain. However, it is hoped that quasi-global surveys such as the present one may eventually provide further insights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The melting of the Scandinavian Ice-Sheet in the early Holocene allowed humans to populate the northernmost parts of Europe. Recent excavations of archaeological sites on the riverbank, floodplain and kame terraces of the River Rena, southeast Norway have defined periods of human occupation in riverside environments, which became ice-free during the last deglaciation. In this paper, we extend the scope of previous archaeological work by examining the sedimentology and chronology of five riverside sedimentary sequences along the River Rena. Our aims were to reconstruct the Holocene evolution of part of the river, and determine whether changes in Holocene settlement patterns might be linked to changes in river evolution and/or climate. Results show: (1) widespread draining of the kame terraces of the River Rena occurred shortly before the first consistent human settlement in the area began c. 8 ka BP; (2) human settlement was maintained until the present day, except during a period of previously undocumented abandonment between c. 4 and 3 ka BP, associated with a sustained period of high river discharge. We link the establishment of first undisputable settlement to reduced water levels as glaciers retreated upstream during a 'warmer' phase of the early Holocene, shortly after the 8.2 ka climatic downturn event. The most recent abandonment of the riverbank settlements 4-3 ka BP occurred during the last phase of glacier advance in the River Rena region, which has been linked to the Europe-wide late- Holocene Thermal Decline (Neoglacial) downturn in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gradual increase in temperature is one of the most pronounced trends of climatic changes in the atmosphere. The pollution levels depend essentially on the emissions (both on the human-made emissions and on the biogenic emissions) as well as on the chemical reactions which take place during the transport of pollutants in the atmosphere. Since both the chemical reactions and the biogenic emissions depend on the temperature, it is obvious that the gradual increase of the temperature will have some effect on pollution levels. The impact of climatic changes on high ozone levels, which may have damaging effects on human health, is studied in this paper. Eight European suburban areas were selected. These areas are densely populated and, therefore, increased ozone pollution levels may cause harm to a great number of human beings living there. All experiments indicate that, although the changes of the ozone concentrations are relatively small, some critical levels, which are related to ozone concentrations and which may have damaging effects, will be significantly exceeded as a result of the warming trend in the future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This invited review and opinion piece, assesses the impact of climate change on mycotoxins in food: only one paper and an abstract referred directly from a substantial literature search and then only in relation to Europe. Climate change is an accepted probability by most scientists. Favourable temperature and water activity are crucial for mycotoxigenic fungi and mycotoxin production. Fungal diseases of crops provide relevant information for pre-harvest mycotoxin contamination. However, the mycotoxin issue also involves post-harvest scenarios. There are no data on how mycotoxins affect competing organisms in crop ecosystems. In general, if the temperature increases in cool or temperate climates, the relevant countries may become more liable to aflatoxins. Tropical countries may become too inhospitable for conventional fungal growth and mycotoxin production. Could this lead to the extinction of thermotolerant Aspergillus flavus? Currently cold regions may become liable to temperate problems concerning ochratoxin A, patulin and Fusarium toxins (e.g. deoxynivalenol). Regions which can afford to control the environment of storage facilities may be able to avoid post-harvest problems but at high additional cost. There appears to be a lack of awareness of the issue in some non-European countries. The era will provide numerous challenges for mycotoxicologists. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The idea of using large-scale information to predict local climate variability is widely exploited in climate change impact studies as an alternative to computationally expensive high-resolution models. This approach implies the hypothesis that the statistical relationship between large-scale climate states and local variables defined for the present-day climate remains valid in the altered climate. In this paper, the concept of weather regimes is used to deduce a relationship between large-scale circulation and European winter temperature. The change in temperature with increased greenhouse gases is, however, not homogeneous among the individual regimes. As a result, the impact of the weather regimes on local temperature changes varies in the future, limiting its usefulness for refining temperature changes to the small scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to introduce the innovative technology created within the framework of PRE-FOREST project, funded by the European Commission under the CRAFT 6th Framework Research Programme. PRE-FOREST was an innovative research project in the field of forest planting stock material, enhancing co-operation between research foundations and small and medium-sized enterprises. Among the project's objectives were the introduction of a new technology based on precultivation (in mini-plugs) of forest regeneration material in a cost-efficient and environmental friendly production unit, not affected by outdoor climate; the development of a new, adapted to mini-plugs, grading technology and replug robot; the integration of these technologies into a functional prototype unit capable of large-scale forest regeneration material production; and the introduction of this production system at strategic locations in Europe. The system has been developed for year-round production and function in the same way, independently of climatic variations in different parts of Europe. To obtain these objectives the study focused on the interaction among production technology, mini-plug container design and rooting media, to develop cultivation protocols for forest reproductive materials of special economic and ecological importance for each participating country. One of the main benefits of the new technology was the environmentally friendly production of a large number of seedlings per square metre, leading to a cost-efficient result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper presents a methodology for estimating high quantiles of distributions of daily temperature in a non-stationary context, based on peaks-over-threshold analysis with a time-dependent threshold expressed in terms of regression quantiles. The extreme value models are applied to estimate 20-yr return values of maximum daily temperature over Europe in transient global climate model (GCM) simulations for the 21st century. A comparison of scenarios of changes in the 20-yr return temperatures based on the non-stationary peaks-over-threshold models with conventional stationary models is performed. It is demonstrated that the application of the stationary extreme value models in temperature data from GCM scenarios yields results that may be to a large extent biased, while the non-stationary models lead to spatial patterns that are robust and enable one to detect areas where the projected warming in the tail of the distribution of daily temperatures is largest. The method also allows splitting the projected warming of extremely high quantiles into two parts that reflect change in the location and scale of the distribution of extremes, respectively. Spatial patterns of the two components differ significantly in the examined climate change projections over Europe. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In order to make projections for future air-quality levels, a robust methodology is needed that succeeds in reconstructing present-day air-quality levels. At present, climate projections for meteorological variables are available from Atmospheric-Ocean Coupled Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) but the temporal and spatial resolution is insufficient for air-quality assessment. Therefore, a variety of methods are tested in this paper in their ability to hindcast maximum 8 hourly levels of O3 and daily mean PM10 from observed meteorological data. The methods are based on a multiple linear regression technique combined with the automated Lamb weather classification. Moreover, we studied whether the above-mentioned multiple regression analysis still holds when driven by operational ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) meteorological data. The main results show that a weather type classification prior to the regression analysis is superior to a simple linear regression approach. In contrast to PM10 downscaling, seasonal characteristics should be taken into account during the downscaling of O3 time series. Apart from a lower explained variance due to intrinsic limitations of the regression approach itself, a lower variability of the meteorological predictors (resolution effect) and model deficiencies, this synoptic-regression-based tool is generally able to reproduce the relevant statistical properties of the observed O3 distributions important in terms of European air quality Directives and air quality mitigation strategies. For PM10, the situation is different as the approach using only meteorology data was found to be insufficient to explain the observed PM10 variability using the meteorological variables considered in this study. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change research is currently a topic of great interest for economic researchers. In particular, environmental input–output analysis increasingly plays an important role in measuring the economic and environmental effects of sustainable development policies in Europe. Other approaches also exist, such as econometric modelling, in which impacts are quantified on statistical grounds and with certain desirable properties (efficient estimates, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, etc.) that are not found in the input–output approach. Consequently, this paper merges the two approaches to address the calculation of unbiased and consistent carbon dioxide emission multipliers for Denmark and their respective confidence intervals. The use of the supply and use system instead of the symmetric input–output table also presents the opportunity to avoid the common problems associated with the construction of technical coefficients (technology assumptions, negatives, etc.). Moreover, a new policy-relevant application of these multipliers is introduced: the quantification of the performance of the carbon dioxide emission reductions carried out by industries via external trading. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The CORINE land cover (CLC) data derived from satellite images for the period of the 1990s and 2000 (± one year) provide information about land cover changes for a substantial part of Europe. Availability of these data can contribute to new approaches to the assessment of the European landscape, for instance in the context of environmental and economic accounting, diversity, modelling of its properties, etc. These possibilities are given by the fact that land cover reflects the biophysical state of the real landscape. The paper contains information about frequency and areas of CLC and their changes in the period 1990–2000, but above all in the processes – flows (LCF) that take place in the European landscape. Results of statistical analysis and maps demonstrate the frequency and rate (by two values: one above and another below the mean LCF rates) of the following processes: urbanisation (LCF1), intensification of agriculture (LCF2), extensification of agriculture (LCF3), afforestation (LCF4), deforestation (LCF5) and construction of water bodies (LCF6). LCF1 was most conspicuous in the Netherlands (2.1% of total country''s area), LCF2 in Ireland (3.3%), LCF3 in the Czech Republic (over 3.5%), LCF4 in Portugal (over 4%), LCF5 in Portugal (over 3.5%) and LCF6 in the Netherlands and Slovakia (over 0.1%). The overall area of identified land cover changes in 24 European countries in the period 1990–2000 was around 88,000km2 which equals 2.5% of their total area. Details presented concerning the LCF frequency and rate will certainly contribute to the overall awareness and anticipation of possible developments in the European landscape. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Lichens are thought to be sensitive indicators of global warming, as the spread of several thermophilous epiphytes in north-western Central Europe has been attributed to late 20th century warming. In the present paper, the potential contribution of late 20th century warming to the decline of arctic-alpine and boreal-montane lichen species is analyzed. Relevant ecological groups of lichens include terricolous heathland species, saxicolous species of exposed rock outcrops and boulder fields as well as epiphytes of mountain forests. These three groups of lichens experienced significant declines before the onset of late 20th century warming in the 1970s. These declines can be attributed to the abandonment of traditional land use systems in the case of the heathland lichens, increased recreational use of the exposed summits usually inhabited by cold-tolerant saxicolous lichens, and to high atmospheric SO2 levels in the mid-20th century, but are probably not directly connected to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Satellite services benefit civil society by helping tackle challenges such as climate change, the digital divide, etc. They have the potential to deliver concrete benefits to European society through innovative services supporting economic, societal and environmental policies. Such benefits can trigger increased public support for space in Europe. However, this potential has yet to be achieved. This paper argues that technological bias, the diversity of interests and initiatives among stakeholders and their individual actions do not always serve their collective objective to ensure wide diffusion of satellite services. It draws on theories of diffusion of innovation and on its authors'' participatory work with the space and the user communities and at their interface in an effort to help diffuse satellite services within civil society. One of the major causes of insufficient service diffusion is the weakness of the interface between the space and user communities; some of factors that currently contribute to this state of affairs are the space community''s over-reliance on publicly financed, technical demonstration projects as solutions to service diffusion; insufficient coordination by public authorities of innovation policies and programmes with other public policies and objectives; and an insufficient integration of satellite services within users'' culture, traditional tools and services. The discussion allows for conclusions to be drawn on how the system of stakeholders could function better in order for satellite services to be successfully diffused in Europe. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The impacts of agricultural land use are far-reaching and extend to areas outside production. This paper provides an overview of the ecological status of agricultural systems across the European Union in the light of recent policy changes. It builds on the previous review of 2001 devoted to the impacts of agricultural intensification in Western Europe. The focus countries are the UK, The Netherlands, Boreal and Baltic countries, Portugal, Hungary and Romania, representing a geographical spread across Europe, but additional reference is made to other countries. Despite many adjustments to agricultural policy, intensification of production in some regions and concurrent abandonment in others remain the major threat to the ecology of agro-ecosystems impairing the state of soil, water and air and reducing biological diversity in agricultural landscapes. The impacts also extend to surrounding terrestrial and aquatic systems through water and aerial contamination and development of agricultural infrastructures (e.g. dams and irrigation channels). Improvements are also documented regionally, such as successful support of farmland species, and improved condition of watercourses and landscapes. This was attributed to agricultural policy targeted at the environment, improved environmental legislation, and new market opportunities. Research into ecosystem services associated with agriculture may provide further pressure to develop policy that is targeted at their continuous provisioning, fostering motivation of land managers to continue to protect and enhance them. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climatic changes, together with an increase in the movement of cats and dogs across Europe, have caused an increase in the geographical range of several vector borne parasites like Dirofilaria, and in the risk of infection for animals and humans. The present paper reviews the effects of climate and other global drivers on Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens infections in Europe and the possible implications on the transmission and control of these mosquito-borne nematodes. In the last several years, growing degree day (GDD)-based forecast models, which use wide or local scale temperature data, have been developed to predict the occurrence and seasonality of Dirofilaria in different parts of the world. All these models are based on the fact that: there is a threshold of 14°C below which Dirofilaria development will not proceed; and there is a requirement of 130 GDD for larvae to reach infectivity and a maximum life expectancy of 30 days for a vector mosquito. The output of these models predicts that the summer temperatures (with peaks in July) are sufficient to facilitate extrinsic incubation of Dirofilaria even at high latitudes. The global warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that warm summers suitable for Dirofilaria transmission in Europe will be the rule in the future decades and if the actual trend of temperature increase continues, filarial infection should spread into previously infection-free areas. These factors not only favour incubation of Dirofilaria, but also impact on mosquito species. Recent findings have also demonstrated that Aedes albopictus is now considered to be an important, competent vector of Dirofilaria infections. This mosquito species could spread from southern to northern European countries in the near future, changing the epidemiological patterns of dirofilariosis both in humans and animals. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Biological monitoring of solar UV radiation using spore dosimeters has been undertaken since the year 1999 at more than 20 sites in Asia, Europe and South America. The monthly-cumulative data to the end of the year 2004 have been presented before. In this paper, successive data to the end of the year 2007 are compiled and the trends and correlation analyses with yearly and monthly average amounts of columnar ozone are presented. Mean yearly doses at 10 northern and 6 southern hemisphere sites exhibited exponential latitudinal gradients with similar slopes indicating a doubling of the dose with the decline of about 14 degrees. Among 12 sites where continual data for more than 6 years were available, increasing trends in yearly UV doses were observed at 11 sites. At one European (Brussels), two tropical Asian (Padang and Denpasar), and two South American (São Martinho and Punta Arenas) sites, decreasing trends of ozone amounts were noted, whereas at the remaining 6 sites (five sites in Japan and Thessaloniki), increasing trends of the UV doses were observed without notable changes, or with an increase at one site (Kiyotake), of the average ozone amounts. At one site (Taipei), the UV doses and the ozone amounts stayed constant. In the monsoon areas, climatic variations and changes, particularly in the extent of cloudiness and frequency of rainfall in summer months, might have been largely responsible for the trends of the UV doses. However, even at these sites, the decreases in the ozone amounts in summer months were frequently observed and might have contributed to the increasing trends of the UV doses. Since each region and locality is unique in climatic and atmospheric conditions, it is not easy to generalize the global trends. However, at many sites involved in this monitoring project, the increases in the biological UV doses during this period seemed to be linked to the decreases in the ozone amounts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The impact of climate change on monuments and historic buildings is addressed for the first time, in terms of modelling and predicting thermal stress on stone in Europe over the next century. While the effect of changing climate on frost in porous materials and on surface recession of carbonate stone, has recently been treated, prediction of the future evolution of thermal stress on stones still requires elucidation. The present paper provides maps showing future scenarios of thermal stress on Carrara marble for the 21st century, using the output data from the Hadley general and regional climate models in the European window. The work carried out made it possible to forecast in the near and far futures (i.e. 2010–2039, 2070–2099) the number of events per year of thermal stress in marble greater than 20 MPa, the latter being adopted as the maximum sustainable load for this specific material. The data demonstrate that the Mediterranean area will continue to experience the highest level of risk from thermal stress, with more than 300 events/year predicted in the 2070–2099 period. In addition, Central Europe will be more affected by thermal stress during the present century compared to the baseline period, 1961–1990, taken as reference. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Mountain regions are cold environments that are hostile to human occupation and widely regarded as places where the air is clean, water is pure and ecosystems are pristine. Yet many mountain regions, especially in Europe, are far from pristine. In the 1980s, research showed that mountain lakes were especially vulnerable to acid deposition and sediment core studies at many sites demonstrated that some mountain lakes had become acidified over the course of the last century. Since then, studies of the water chemistry, biology and history of lakes across the different European mountain regions have increased our understanding of the processes within these systems, their ecological condition and the threats facing them. These studies have demonstrated that: gradients of sulphur, nitrogen, metals and persistent organic pollutant deposition occur from relatively uncontaminated regions in Spain and Central Norway to regions of heavy pollution loading in central and eastern Europe; nitrate and sulphate concentrations in lake water reflect the gradients in atmospheric deposition; concentrations of mercury, lead and cadmium in fish tissue show marked regional differences; the spatial pattern of organochlorine concentrations in fish and in sediments follow the pattern for other pollutants, although there is also good evidence for the selective cold trapping of some compounds both at high latitudes and at high altitudes; fish suffer physiological stress in mountain lake-water of low ionic strength; climate change over the last century is likely to have induced significant changes in lake ice-cover and water column stratification and mixing in some regions and these have in turn influenced the structure and productivity of biological communities; This paper provides a review of the research undertaken on European mountain lakes over the past 30 years. In particular, it highlights the stresses faced by these vulnerable systems and the effects these have had, continue to have, and are likely to have on mountain lake ecosystems in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article summarizes the articles on the relationship between demography and archaeology in this issue. R. Alexander Bentley, Robert H. Layton and Jamshid Tehrani explored the kinship, marriage and the genetics of past human dispersals. Stephen Shennan, Andreas Zimmermann, Johanna Hilpert and Karl Peter Wendt estimate the population density from neolithic period to 1800 after death (AD). Stone implements created by Neanderthals in response to climatic variations in Europe was the main topic of a paper by Jean-Pierre Bocquet-Appel and Alain Tuffreau.

Climate change is currently attracting interest at both research and policy levels. However, it is usually explored in terms of its effect on agriculture, water, industry, energy, transport and health and as yet has been insufficiently addressed as a factor threatening cultural heritage. Among the climate parameters critical to heritage conservation and expected to change in the future, precipitation plays an important role in surface recession of stone. The Lipfert function has been taken under consideration to quantify the annual surface recession of carbonate stone, due to the effects of clean rain, acid rain and dry deposition of pollutants. The present paper provides Europe-wide maps showing quantitative predictions of surface recession on carbonate stones for the 21st century, combining a modified Lipfert function with output from the Hadley global climate model. Chemical dissolution of carbonate stones, via the karst effect, will increase with future CO2 concentrations, and will come to dominate over sulfur deposition and acid rain effects on monuments and buildings in both urban and rural areas. During the present century the rainfall contribution to surface recession is likely to have a small effect, while the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is shown to be the main factor in increasing weathering via the karst effect. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We present a review of the changing state of European permafrost within a spatial zone that includes the continuous high latitude arctic permafrost of Svalbard and the discontinuous high altitude mountain permafrost of Iceland, Fennoscandia and the Alps. The paper focuses on methodological developments and data collection over the last decade or so, including research associated with the continent-scale network of instrumented permafrost boreholes established between 1998 and 2001 under the European Union PACE project. Data indicate recent warming trends, with greatest warming at higher latitudes. Equally important are the impacts of shorter-term extreme climatic events, most immediately reflected in changes in active layer thickness. A large number of complex variables, including altitude, topography, insolation and snow distribution, determine permafrost temperatures. The development of regionally calibrated empirical-statistical models, and physically based process-oriented models, is described, and it is shown that, though more complex and data dependent, process-oriented approaches are better suited to estimating transient effects of climate change in complex mountain topography. Mapping and characterisation of permafrost depth and distribution requires integrated multiple geophysical approaches and recent advances are discussed. We report on recent research into ground ice formation, including ice segregation within bedrock and vein ice formation within ice wedge systems. The potential impacts of climate change on rock weathering, permafrost creep, landslides, rock falls, debris flows and slow mass movements are also discussed. Recent engineering responses to the potentially damaging effects of climate warming are outlined, and risk assessment strategies to minimise geological hazards are described. We conclude that forecasting changes in hazard occurrence, magnitude and frequency is likely to depend on process-based modelling, demanding improved understanding of geomorphological process-response systems and their impacts on human activity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are increasing in many surface waters across Europe. Two of the main mechanisms proposed to explain this increase are declines in sulfate (SO42-) deposition and changes in climate. Many of the reductions in SO42- have already occurred; climate change related effects are occurring now and will continue in the future. This paper presents the first application of a new version of INCA-C, the Integrated Catchments model for Carbon, which simulates the effects of both climate and SO42- deposition on surface water DOG concentration ([DOG]). The model was applied to Valkea-Kotinen, a small headwater catchment in Finland, where it was able to simulate present-day (1990-2007) trends in [DOC] in the lake and catchment outflow as functions of observed climate and European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP)-modelled SO42- deposition. Using a parameter set derived from a present-day calibration, the model was run with two climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and three EMEP deposition scenarios to simulate surface water [DOG] between 1960 and 2100. The results show that much of the historical increase in [DOC] can be explained as a result of historical declines in SO42- deposition and that surface water [DOC] will continue to increase as climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the importance of the COST Action 725 from 2004 to 2009 towards the collaboration of the European COoperation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research. The COST725 attained the common system, phenological observations, and utilizing data in scientific peer reviewed papers. It notes the accomplishments of the program including the phenological response to climate and the launching of project in 2010 under European network of meteorological services (EUMETNET/ECSN).

Climatic hazards such as floods and droughts have always been a primary matter of concern for human populations. Severe floods damage settlements, transport networks, and arable land. Although devastating droughts are harmful primarily for agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems, they can also lead to local water supply shortages. Despite significant achievements in science and technology and success stories in environmental management in the 20th century, people still continue to suffer the consequences of climate hazards worldwide. This paper provides an overview of existing practices for coping with floods and droughts, compares strategies in different river basins, and outlines the areas that need improvement. First, the existing protection measures and response strategies against floods and droughts are briefly described. An overview is given of expected climate change and existing coping strategies for floods and droughts in seven case study basins. Four of the basins, namely the Elbe, Guadiana, Rhine, and Tisza, are located in Europe the Nile and the Orange are in Africa; and the Amudarya is in Central Asia. Analysis of the coping strategies shows that structural measures exist in all seven river basins, but that nonstructural measures are generally not very extensive and/or advanced. Finally, the success stories in dealing with climatic hazards and lessons learned, taken partly from the seven case study basins and partly from literature, are summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract  Bluetongue (BT) is an economically important disease of ruminants resulting from infection with bluetongue virus (BTV). Historically, BT outbreaks in Europe were rare and short-lived. However, during the last 10 years, BTV has become firmly established in southern Europe and, since 2006, has begun to occur in northern Europe. There is a substantial body of evidence linking this emergence to climate change. In this paper, we summarise the recent emergence of BTV in Europe, review the known links between climate and BTV transmission, and discuss gaps in our knowledge of the epidemiology of BT and how they might be filled by current and future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, regions in the Mediterranean area share common characteristics in terms of high sensitivity to climate change impacts. Does this translate into specificities regarding climate action that could arise from these Mediterranean characteristics? This paper sheds light on regional and local climate mitigation actions of the Mediterranean Europe, focusing on the plans to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in a representative sample of 51 regions and 73 cities across 9 Mediterranean countries (Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain). The study investigates: (i) the availability of local and regional mitigation plans, (ii) their goals in term of greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets on the short and medium-long term, and (iii) the impact of transnational climate networks on such local and regional climate mitigation planning. Results of this study indicate an uneven and fragmented planning, that shows a Mediterranean West-East divide, and a link with population size. However, overall, both regional and city action seem insufficiently ambitious with regards to meeting the Paris Agreement, at least at city level. While national frameworks are currently weak in influencing regional and local actions, transnational networks seem to be engaging factors for commitment (at city level) and ambitiousness (at regional level). The uneven and fragmented progress revealed by this study, does not align with the characteristics shared by investigated regions and cities in terms of environmental, socio-political, climatic and economic conditions. The results support the call of a common green deal at the Mediterranean level to further address specific Mediterranean challenges and related needs. This will allow to capitalise on available resources, generate local-specific knowledge, build capacities, and support Mediterranean regions and cities in preparing the next generation of more ambitious mitigation plans. [Display omitted] • Analysis of mitigation plans of 51 regions and 73 cities in Mediterranean Europe. • Uneven progress, with West-East divide and a generally modest short-term ambition. • Bigger size Mediterranean regions and cities show higher climate action. • Mitigation planning is affected by national regulation and transnational networks. • There is a case for cross-border cooperation among Mediterranean regions and cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth Observation satellite data allows for the monitoring of the surface of our planet at predefined intervals covering large areas. However, there is only one medium resolution sensor family in orbit that enables an observation time span of 40 and more years at a daily repeat interval. This is the AVHRR sensor family. If we want to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on our environment, we can only do so based on data that remains available for several decades. If we then want to investigate processes with respect to climate change, we need very high temporal resolution enabling the generation of long-term time series and the derivation of related statistical parameters such as mean, variability, anomalies, and trends. The challenges to generating a well calibrated and harmonized 40-year-long time series based on AVHRR sensor data flown on 14 different platforms are enormous. However, only extremely thorough pre-processing and harmonization ensures that trends found in the data are real trends and not sensor-related (or other) artefacts. The generation of European-wide time series as a basis for the derivation of a multitude of parameters is therefore an extremely challenging task, the details of which are presented in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract  Information on the spatial distribution of past vegetation on local, regional and global scales is increasingly used within climate modelling, nature conservancy and archaeology. It is possible to obtain such information from fossil pollen records in lakes and bogs using the landscape reconstruction algorithm (LRA) and its two models, REVEALS and LOVE. These models assume that reliable pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) are available for the plant taxa involved in the quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation, and that PPEs are constant through time. This paper presents and discusses the PPEs for 15 tree and 18 herb taxa obtained in nine study areas of Europe. Observed differences in PPEs between regions may be explained by methodological issues and environmental variables, of which climate and related factors such as reproduction strategies and growth forms appear to be the most important. An evaluation of the PPEs at hand so far suggests that they can be used in modelling applications and quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation, provided that consideration of past environmental variability within the region is used to inform selection of PPEs, and bearing in mind that PPEs might have changed through time as a response to climate change. Application of a range of possible PPEs will allow a better evaluation of the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and efforts to mitigate it have given rise to an interest in the relationship between industry competitiveness, energy efficiency, and carbon emissions. A better understanding of this relationship can be essential for economic and environmental decision-makers. This paper presents empirical research evaluating industry competitiveness through the factors of energy efficiency and carbon emission in Europe's most energy-intensive industries. The designed industry competitiveness measure index consists of seven components, grouped into three equally weighted sub-indexes: export performance, energy, and environmental. The export performance of the industry is described by the industry export growth rate, the share of the industry's export, and the effects on the industry's competitiveness of changes in a country's export. The energy intensity of the industry and energy prices are integrated into the energy sub-index. The environmental sub-index consists of the industry's emissions intensity, and the ratio of freely allocated allowances and verified emissions indicators. The findings indicate that countries with the highest index value also have a positive energy intensity and carbon emission indicator value. The average index value of each industry gradually reduces to zero, and the standard deviation of the index value shows a diminishing trend throughout all sectors, which implies that competitiveness in all sectors is increasing and that all countries are nearing the industry average. The ANOVA results show that: (1) the competitiveness index value was statistically significantly different in the investigated countries; (2) the competitiveness index value was statistically non-significantly different in the investigated industries; (3) there was a significant effect of the interaction between country and industry on the competitiveness index value. These results suggest that the country itself and industry/country interaction significantly affect the competitiveness index. However, it should be mentioned that industry per se does not substantially affect the competitiveness index score. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current climate change threats and increasing CO2 emissions, especially from the building stock, represent a context where action is required. It is necessary to provide efficient manners to manage energy demand in buildings and contribute to a decarbonised future. By combining new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of things, blockchain, and the exploitation of big data towards solving real life problems, the way could be paved towards smart and energy-aware buildings. In this context, the aim of this paper is to present a critical review and an in-detail definition of the big data value chain for the built environment in Europe, covering multiple needs and perspectives: "policy", "technology" and "business", in order to explore the main challenges and opportunities in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant changes in the climatic system have been observed, which may be attributed to human-enhanced greenhouse effect. Even stronger changes are projected for the future, impacting in an increasing way on human activity sectors. The present contribution, prepared in the framework of the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) Project of the European Union, reviews how climate change may impact on winter tourism in the Alpine region, intense precipitation and flood potential in central Europe, forest damage in Scandinavia and beach holidays in the Mediterranean coast. Impacts are likely to be serious and largely adverse. Due to a lack of adequate information and lack of broadly accepted and reliable mathematical models describing the impact of changes in climate extremes on these activity sectors, it has been found useful to use expert judgement based impact assessment. Accordingly, regional mini-workshops were organized serving as platforms for communication between scientists and stakeholders, vehicles for dissemination of the state-of-the-art of the scientific understanding and for learning stakeholders’ view on extreme events, their impacts and the preparedness system. Stakeholders had the opportunity to react to the scientific results and to reflect on their perception of the likely impacts of projected changes in extremes on relevant activity sectors and the potential to adapt and avert adverse consequences. The results reported in this paper present the stakeholders’ suggestions for essential information on different extreme event impacts and their needs from science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to improve understanding of the adaptive capacity of European agriculture to climate change. Extensive data on farm characteristics of individual farms from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) have been combined with climatic and socio-economic data to analyze the influence of climate and management on crop yields and income and to identify factors that determine adaptive capacity. A multilevel analysis was performed to account for regional differences in the studied relationships. Our results suggest that socio-economic conditions and farmcharacteristics should be considered when analyzing effects of climate conditions on farm yields and income. Next to climate, input intensity, economic size and the type of land use were identified as important factors influencing spatial variability in crop yields and income. Generally, crop yields and income are increasing with farm size and farm intensity. However, effects differed among crops and high crop yields were not always related to high incomes, suggesting that impacts of climate and management differ by impact variable. As farm characteristics influence climate impacts on crop yields and income, they are good indicators of adaptive capacity at farm level and should be considered in impact assessment models. Different farm types with different management strategies will adapt differently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the soil–atmosphere feedbacks and uncertainties under current (1960–1990) and plausible future climate conditions (2070–2100, using the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario). For this purpose, two vegetation descriptions differing only in the grassland and grass-with-trees proportion in some parts of the domain have been created. The combination of these two different climate scenarios and two vegetation descriptions defines four different 30-year experiments, which have been completed using a regional climate model. The domain is centered around the Mediterranean basin and covers most of Europe. The study focuses on the summer season when there are major differences between the two vegetation descriptions and when the impact of land–surface processes on precipitation is largest. Present climate experiments show large evapotranspiration differences over areas where vegetation changes have taken place. Precipitation increases (up to 3 mm day−1 in some regions) follow evapotranspiration increases, although with a more complex spatial structure. These results indicate a high sensitivity at regional scales of summer precipitation processes to vegetation changes. Future climate simulations show very similar changes to those observed in the current climate experiments. This indicates that the impacts of climate change are relatively independent to the land-cover descriptions used in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies consider substitution of aircraft services with high-speed train (HST) services on short-haul routes desirable for environmental reasons. This paper empirically examined this perception by evaluating local air pollution (LAP) and climate change impacts from a flight and an HST service between London and Paris. Comparing the emissions, the impact, and the cost of damage from the aircraft journey with the HST journey, it was found that substituting an aircraft seat with an HST seat is beneficial. These benefits are likely to occur on all routes on which aircraft and HST substitution is likely to take place. Despite the many limitations in the evaluation of environmental impact, the analysis suggests that such an evaluation is valuable and provides important information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a substantial part of the population in Europe seems well informed about the phenomenon of climate change, uncertainty seems to prevail in terms of its seriousness, its consequences for society and action that needs to be taken in order to prevent ‘dangerous interference with the climate system’. Many people seem to believe that there is no scientific consensus about climate change and that individual behavioural change is irrelevant in the face of uncertainty. Such a ‘psychology of denial’ seems particularly strong in the context of air travel, the fastest growing transport sector. This paper seeks to understand this phenomenon by analysing the discourses surrounding air travel. Four major industry discourses are identified: air travel is energy efficient and accounts only for marginal emissions of CO2; air travel is economically and socially too important to be restricted; fuel use is constantly minimized and new technology will solve the problem, and air travel is treated unfairly in comparison to other means of transport. The validity of these claims is evaluated based on data and material presented in the scientific literature. Results show that there are substantial gaps between the discourses and the reality of aviation's environmental performance, which might partially explain the controversial understanding of air travel and its environmental consequences among the public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the relation between climate change and the earliness of Birch pollination, a tree that produces allergenic pollen, which is of particular importance in north-western Europe. The study allowed us to make projections for the next few years in order to evaluate the evolution of Birch pollination starting date according to spring temperatures. It has been done in ten European locations, Kevo and Turku (Finland), London (United Kingdom), Paris and Lyon (France), Brussels (Belgium), Zürich (Switzerland), Vienna (Austria), Poznan and Cracow (Poland). The study period ranged from six to twenty-eight years depending on the city. Pollens were recorded daily thanks to volumetric Hirst traps, and the data were compared to monthly temperatures from January to May using correlations and multiple regressions. Except in Kevo where the trend is towards colder springs and a later pollination, in the other cities the results showed a spring warming associated with an earlier starting date of pollination: this trend is very well marked in Turku, Zürich, London, Vienna and Brussels, less evident in France while there is no trend in Poland. The results of this work should lead to an updating of the pollen calendars and the pollen forecast models, in the cities where there is a pronounced trend. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation is one of the primary goals in Quaternary palynology and palaeoecology but still remains difficult. This paper proposes a model, REVEALS, that estimates regional vegetation composition using pollen from ‘large lakes’ that have small site-to-site variations of pollen assemblages even if vegetation is highly heterogeneous. Once these data have been used to quantify regional vegetation composition within 104-105 km², background pollen, one of the parameters crucial for vegetation reconstruction, can be estimated for smaller-sized sites, and incorporated into the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA), a multistep framework for quantitative reconstruction of vegetation in smaller areas (≤/104 ha). Simulations using the POLLSCAPE modelling show that REVEALS can provide accurate estimates of regional vegetation composition in various landscapes and under different atmospheric conditions. If pollen assemblages from lakes that are much smaller than ‘large lakes’ are used, estimates of regional vegetation at individual sites could be significantly different from the expected values, and their site-to-site variation could be large. However, when pollen data from multiple lakes ≥100-500 ha in size are available, REVEALS can provide accurate estimates of the regional vegetation with relatively small standard errors. Quantitative reconstruction of regional landscape and vegetation change will be critical for testing some of the controversial hypotheses and concepts in global change and conservation research, such as the impacts of agricultural activities on global climate over the last 8000 years and the open-woodland hypothesis in northern Europe in the early Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]