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The unprecedented variations in global precipitation regime could profoundly impact terrestrial ecosystem structure and function, with consequent feedback to climatic change. However, little is known about complexity in precipitation effects on grassland ecosystem carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) processes at regional scales. We investigated the patterns of shoot and root biomass, litter mass, soil C and N content, microbial community composition and C and N mineralization at 18 sites along a 1000 km precipitation gradient in native Leymus chinensis grasslands of northeastern China. The results show that, with increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP), the biomass of total plant, shoot and litter gradually increased while root biomass remained nearly constant along the gradient. Surprisingly, both soil C and N mineralization rates showed quadratic relationships with MAP, likely due to the relative changes in temperature, soil arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi biomass and N availability. Although soil total C and N content presented sustained increases with water availability, heavy fractions of C and N content reached stable and saturated phases in mesic sites. Overall, ecosystem C and N sequestration enhanced with water availability in terms of C and N storage in shoot, root, litter, and soil along the precipitation gradient. It was concluded from the current study that regional precipitation regime and the indirect effects of precipitation on changes in soil properties and microbial communities would strongly influence on ecosystem C and N dynamics. The temperate grasslands of northeastern China could be utilized as significant ecosystem C and N sinks in the context of mitigating climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the frequent occurrence of extreme climate disasters has seriously affected agriculture in Northeast China. Based on precipitation data derived from 83 geographical stations in the study area for 60 years (1960–2019), we chose the reliable statistical methods of the Mann–Kendall test, Sen's slope, and the Standardized Precipitation Index, and regarded drought and flood as a whole in this paper, to identify the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation and extreme climate events in Northeast China. The results show that an increasing trend of disasters was detected at the 95% confidence level (Z = 2.3). According to the timescale analysis, abrupt climate changes started in 2006. Temporal and spatial distribution of extreme climate disasters, mainly drought and flood disasters, showed a significant upward trend from 2006 to 2019. According to the spatial analysis, the precipitation in Northeast China decreased from south to north and fluctuated less from east to west. Moreover, stations with extreme climate trends (trend of climatic anomaly with confidence level > 90%) followed the same spatial pattern as those with a high frequency of extreme climate disasters (more than 17.87 times/decade). The severity and frequency of extreme climate have increasingly threatened Northeast China in the past decade. In particular, the Northeast Plain experienced the most severe and extreme climate events that seriously threatened the study area in 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2019. Our results highlight the urgent need for the development of monitoring and early warning of droughts and flood disasters to reduce economic losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following a description of the climatology of the boreal summer persistent low temperature (LT) events of the Northeast (NE) China, this paper explores the synoptic characteristics of these events by decomposing atmospheric variables into three components: the daily climate, the zonal-averaged anomaly and the synoptic-scale anomaly. The synoptic-scale anomaly is used to construct the anomalous synoptic charts which tend to perform better compared to traditionally defined synoptic charts in terms of revealing synoptic characteristics of these LT events. Based on the analysis of 21 persistent LT events occurring during summers of 1961-2008 in NE China, we show that temperature anomaly at 850 hPa and geopotential height anomaly at 300 hPa were two critical early signals prior to the occurrences of these persistent LT events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a main grain production area in China, Northeast China (NEC) is highly influenced by the higher warming trend than elsewhere in China or even the globe. As the warming trend goes on, scientific understanding of the changes of thermal conditions in NEC will be essential for taking agricultural adaptation measures. In this paper, the high-resolution (25 km) corrected outputs of PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario were used to analyze the changes of the agro-climatic thermal resources in NEC. Results showed that accumulated temperature ≥10 °C (AT10) could increase by 300–500 °C·day, 500–900 °C·day, and 750–1000 °C·day in 2011–2040 (2020s), 2041–2070 (2050s), and 2071–2100 (2080s), respectively, relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990. The potential growing season (PGS) would then be prolonged by 11–19 days, 23–35 days, and 25–37 days in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared to baseline. The spatial features for the changes of thermal indices would show a large increase of AT10 and an extension of PGS and Frost-free period (FFP) in mountainous areas compared to plains; the increment of AT10 would be greater in southern NEC than that in the north, with over 1000 °C·day in the southern parts and 700–800 °C·day in the northern parts in the 2080s. Additionally, the three thermal indices would increase rapidly from 2020s to 2050s compared to the period from 2050s to the 2080s, coincides with the greenhouse gas concentrations peak around the mid-period of the 21st century, and the decline towards the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 forcing. The results of this paper could act as a guide to taking advantage of increasing thermal resources in NEC, and would be helpful for local practitioners in decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inactive ice wedges are still present today at Yituli'he in the middle Da Xing'anling (Greater Hinggan) Mountains in northeastern China, which is the southernmost known site (50°37′N) with ice wedges in the Northern Hemisphere. However, it is uncertain whether the ice-wedge isotope composition, characterized by low δ18O, δD and low deuterium excess values, is representative of the isotope signature of a broader region. In this paper, the ice-wedge isotope compositions were examined in the context of the stable isotopes of precipitation from the nearby Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation ( GNIP) stations. In addition, the pollen spectra from the host sediments were analysed to provide additional information on local vegetation in order to better understand the climate conditions favouring ice-wedge formation. The pollen spectra suggest that the Yituli'he ice wedges developed during the colder and wetter period after 6000 cal. a BP. The isotopes in the Yituli'he ice wedges are consistent with the isotope background recorded in atmospheric precipitation collected at the nearby GNIP stations. When the snow-melt froze into ice veinlets, the isotope signals did not change substantially because of the strong, cold, continental anticyclones in winter as well as a strong temperature inversion that prevail in the Da Xing'anling Mountains. As the climate pattern did not change substantially, the neoglacial cold period is unlikely to have allowed for strong secondary fractionation of isotope records during ice-wedge formation. Thus, the annual isotope signature can be interpreted as a valid archive of climate data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The phenomenon of global climate change can impact the geographic range and abundance of species, thereby heightening the vulnerability of rare species to extinction. The reed parrotbill (Paradoxornis heudei David, 1872) is endemic to central and eastern China and is considered a near-threatened species according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This study shows that temperature annual range, annual precipitation, and isothermality were the principal climatic factors to limit the habitat suitability of P. heudei. Presently, the suitable habitat for P. heudei is predominantly found in the central–eastern and northeast plains of China, especially the eastern coastal area. P. heudei is sensitive to climate change. In the future, northeastern China may serve as a potential suitable habitat for P. heudei. The phenomenon of global climate change can impact the geographic range and biodiversity, thereby heightening the vulnerability of rare species to extinction. The reed parrotbill (Paradoxornis heudei David, 1872) is endemic to central and eastern China, it is mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain and the Northeast Plain. In this study, eight of ten algorithms of the species distribution model (SDM) were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. heudei under current and future climate scenarios and to analyze the possible related climate factors. After checking the collected data, 97 occurrence records of P. heudei were used. The relative contribution rate shows that among the selected climatic variables, temperature annual range (bio7), annual precipitation (bio12), and isothermality (bio3) were the principal climatic factors to limit the habitat suitability of P. heudei. The suitable habitat for P. heudei is primarily concentrated in the central–eastern and northeast plains of China, particularly in the eastern coastal region, spanning a mere area of 57,841 km2. The habitat suitability of P. heudei under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios was predicted to be different under future climatic conditions, but all of them had a larger range than the current one. The species distribution range could expand by more than 100% on average compared with the current range under the four scenarios in 2050, while it could contract by approximately 30% on average relative to the 2050 range in 2070 under different climate change scenarios. In the future, northeastern China may serve as a potential suitable habitat for P. heudei. The changes in the spatial and temporal distributions of P. heudei's range are of utmost importance in identifying high-priority conservation regions and devising effective management strategies for its preservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To learn the effects of climate change on cultivation patterns of spring maize and its suitability will benefit the strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation. In this paper, based on the daily data from 68 meteorological stations and 82 agro-meteorological observation stations in Northeast China between 1961 and 2010, the cultivation pattern of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China were investigated. The agricultural climatic suitability theory was applied. The specific growth phases of spring maize that were most sensitive to environmental limitations were further divided into four stages: from germination to emergence, from emergence to jointing, from jointing to tasseling, and from tasseling to maturity. The average resource suitability index ( I sr ) was established to evaluate the effects. Higher values of I sr indicate a higher degree of climatic resource suitability. Over the past five decades, the northern planting boundaries of different maturities (late, medium-late, medium, medium-early and early) of spring maize varieties in Northeast China all markedly extended northward and eastward. Of all the varieties, the medium-late maturity variety had the most expanded planting area. This further illustrated the importance of promoting medium-late range heat-tolerant cultivars of spring maize in reducing the unfavorable effect of climate change in the near future in Northeast China. In addition, the most significant extension was found in the early 21st century. Moreover, the southern planting boundaries of unsuitable planting spring maize areas continually compressed northward from the Tonghe County of Heilongjiang Province (128°49′, 46°21′) to the Huma County of Heilongjiang Province (124°11′, 51°26′). Climate change affected not only the planting patterns of spring maize, but also the climatic suitability of spring maize. Significant temporal and spatial changes of I sr from 1961 to 2010 were found. The I sr showed increasing trends, which increased by 0.19 in Heilongjiang Province, 0.16 in Jilin Province and 0.12 in Liaoning Province. Spatial differences of I sr were obvious, with high values shifting northeastward over the past 50 years, indicating more efficient suitability of agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To learn the historical response of cropping system to climate change will benefit the strategy decision of future cropping adaptation. In this paper, we conducted an integrated analysis of the climate records of seventy-two meteorological stations and the records of crop yields over the period 1970–2009 in Northeast China. It was found that over these forty years, the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures during crop growing season increased on average by 0.34°C, 0.28°C, 0.43°C every ten years, respectively. No significant change in the precipitation was found, although the differences between years were large. After de-trending the agronomic technique contributions to the increments of crop yields, the historical warming had led to great annually increments of 16.6kgha−1, 15.5kgha−1 and 3.2kgha−1 in rice, corn and soybean yields, respectively. According to the historical warming level, present cropping boundaries can be theoretically extended northward about 80km with a prolonged growing period by 10 days compared to the 1970s. Actually, the growth durations of newly approved varieties of rice, corn and soybean have really prolonged by 14.0 days, 7.0 days and 2.7 days since the 1950s, respectively. The actual growing periods of rice and corn have also respectively prolonged by 6 days and 4 days due to the adjustment of sown and harvest dates by the farmer since 1990s. The existing rice cropping region has been extended northward 80km in the 2006 compared to the 1970. These actual responses were consistent with the theoretical calculation according to the historical warming trends. Our results demonstrate that cropping system owns the potential to progressively and actively adapt to the global warming for high yield through a comprehensive strategy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

To accurately model the regional climatic effects of land use/cover change processes, precise reconstructions of historical land cover are essential. Over the past 300 years, the northeastern region has undergone more significant land cover change than any other region in China owing to large numbers of farmer migrants from North China, reflecting the tremendous effects human activities can have on such changes. In this paper, based on official statistical data, documentary records, survey data. and modern remote-sensing data and vegetation and soil maps, land cover changes across Northeast China over the past 300 years have been reconstructed through cropland data calibrations using correlation analysis, potential vegetation reconstructions, urban area estimations, spatial analyses of land cover type changes by K-mean clustering analysis, and consideration of land use driving forces. The results indicate that cropland expanded gradually from south to north through the cities of Shenyang, Jilin, and Ha'erbin as well as out to the margins of the central plain of Northeast China, with a maximum expansion occurring in the 1950s. Pristine forests and grasslands diminished significantly, especially in the early twentieth century, due to this expansion of cropland. The conclusions drawn from these results are, first, that these results provide a scientific understanding of the process by which the original land cover was replaced by cropland in Northeast China over the past 300 years. Second, the results enabled the development of a series of land use/cover changes maps with 50-100 year time resolutions and county-level spatial resolutions. Based on the reconstructed results of these land cover type changes, the dynamics and causes of land cover changes are discussed in their social-historical contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the climatic maps of proper China and Manchuria according to the Thornthwaite 1948 classification. Formula for computing the potential evapotranspiration; Presentation of climatic conditions; Classes of maps presented by Thornthwaite.

In this paper, we study the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitable water, precipitation, evaporation, and water–vapor flux divergence in different seasons over northeast China and the water balance of that area. The data used in this paper is provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results show that the spatial distributions of precipitable water, precipitation, and evaporation feature that the values of elements above in the southeastern area are larger than those in the northwestern area; in summer, much precipitation and evaporation occur in the Changbai Mountain region as a strong moisture convergence region; in spring and autumn, moisture divergence dominates the northeast of China; in winter, the moisture divergence and convergence are weak in this area. From 1979 to 2010, the total precipitation of summer and autumn in northeast China decreased significantly; especially from 1999 to 2010, the summer precipitation always demonstrated negative anomaly. Additionally, other elements in different seasons changed in a truly imperceptible way. In spring, the evaporation exceeded the precipitation in northeast China; in summer, the precipitation was more prominent; in autumn and winter, precipitation played a more dominating role than the evaporation in the northern part of northeast China, while the evaporation exceeded the precipitation in the southern part.The Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data have properly described the water balance of different seasons in northeast China. Based on ERA-Interim data, the moisture sinks computed through moisture convergence and moisture local variation are quite consistent with those computed through precipitation and evaporation, which proves that ERA-Interim data can be used in the research of water balance in northeast China. On a seasonal scale, the moisture convergence has a greater influence than the local moisture variation on a moisture sink, and the latter is variable slightly, generally as a constant. Likewise, in different seasons, the total precipitation has a much greater influence than the evaporation on the moisture sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines potential benefits of performance‐based multi‐model ensembles (MMEs) in projecting the impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation indices over East Asia (EA) using the data from 19 GCMs in the coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5). The Taylor skill score is adopted as the measure of the model skills in simulating the spatial and interannual variability of the selected extreme precipitation indices over four EA regions. The overall rank based on the total skill score (TSC) is used to construct two skill‐based MMEs, MME of high‐skill, MMH (MME of low‐skill, MML) that include the top (bottom) seven models, in addition to the simple ensemble of all 19 GCMs (ENS). Inter‐GCM consistency is measured using the signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR). In the present‐day period, MMH yields higher skill scores than MML and ENS for almost all extreme precipitation indices as well as regions. Regional variations in biases, inter‐model consistency, and TSC are large. The inter‐model consistency is highest for Northern China and Manchuria and is lowest for Southern China. The most notable differences in the key properties of climate change signals from the three MMEs among the three ensembles are that the climate change signals from MMH and ENS exceed the 90% significance level in much larger areas than those from MML. However, the differences in the climate change signals between MMH and MML are generally below the 90% significance level. The SNR of the projected climate change signals shows that MMH yields more consistent climate change signals than ENS/MML. Both the SNR differences and the area in which statistical significance exceed the 90% level suggest that constructing climate change signals from a group of higher‐skill models may yield more reliable projections than constructing MMEs from the entire models or a group of lower‐skilled models. The domains used in the study (SOUTH: 110°–140°E, 20°–30°N, MIDDLE: 110°–140°E, 30°–40°N), NORTH: 110°–140°E, 40°–50°N, EA: 110°–140°E, 20°–50°N) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate gridded climatological temperature data-set can be a reliable basis for studying the issues that concern climate change, natural disasters, among others. In this study, the climate standard value data and annual observed data collected by 104 meteorological sites in Northeast China from 1971 to 2000 are used to interpolate the annual mean air temperature of the region with different spatial interpolation techniques. Efforts have also been made to verify the accuracy of the results generated by each interpolation method with error indicator, temperature characteristic value and temperature variation curves. The results show at the spatial scale, the partial thin-plate smoothing spline (PTPSS) scheme generates the most desirable temperature interpolations with a root-mean-square error at 0.34 °C and an average standard error at 0.52 °C. At the temporal scale, the PTPSS-based 1971–2000 temperature curves agree the best with the gridded temperature curves, with the correlation coefficients of means, minimums and maximums between the two being larger than 0.9. Meanwhile, the PTPSS produce the smallest error approaching zero among all the interpolation schemes tested in the study. In this context, the PTPSS scheme stands out as the most desirable interpolation method for the annual mean temperature in Northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air temperature (Tair) near the ground surface is a fundamental descriptor of terrestrial environment conditions and one of the most widely used climatic variables in global change studies. The main objective of this study was to explore the possibility of retrieving high-resolution Tair from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) products, covering complex terrain in Northeast China. The All Subsets Regression (ASR) method was adopted to select the predictors and build optimal multiple linear regression models for estimating maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin), and mean (Tmean) air temperatures. The relative importance of predictors in these models was evaluated via the Standardized Regression Coefficients (SRCs) method. The results indicated that the optimal models could estimate the Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean with relatively high accuracies (Model Efficiency ≥ 0.90). Both LST and day length (DL) predictors were important in estimating Tmax (SRCs: daytime LST = 0.53, DL = 0.35), Tmin (SRCs: nighttime LST = 0.74, DL = 0.23), and Tmean (SRCs: nighttime LST = 0.72, DL = 0.28). Models predicting Tmin and Tmean had better performance than the one predicting Tmax. Nighttime LST was better at predicting Tmin and Tmean than daytime LST data at predicting Tmax. Land covers had noticeable influences on estimating Tair, and even seasonal vegetation greening could result in temporal variations of model performance. Air temperature could be accurately estimated using remote sensing, but the model performance was varied across different spatial and temporal scales. More predictors should be incorporated for the purpose of improving the estimation of near surface Tair from the MODIS LST production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sanjiang Plain has been experienced significant wetland loss due to expanded agricultural activities, and will be potentially restored by the China National Wetland Conservation Action Plan (NWCP) in future. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of future climate warming and wetland restoration on wetland CH4 emissions in northeast China. We used an atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2) to drive a modified biogeophysical model (CH4MODwetland), and projected CH4 flux variations from the Sanjiang Plain wetlands under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios throughout the 21st century. Model validation showed that the regressions between the observed and simulated CH4 fluxes by the modified model produced an R2 of 0.49 with a slope of 0.87 (p<0.001, n = 237). According to the AVIM2 simulation, the net primary productivity of the Sanjiang Plain wetlands will increase by 38.2 g m-2 yr-1, 116.6 g m-2 yr-1 and 250.4 g m-2 yr-1 under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by the end of this century. For RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the CH4 fluxes will increase by 5.7 g m-2 yr-1, 57.5 g m-2 yr-1 and 112.2 g m-2 yr-1. Combined with the wetland restoration, the regional emissions will increase by 0.18‒1.52 Tg. The CH4 emissions will be stimulated by climate change and wetland restoration. Regional wetland restoration planning should be directed against different climate scenarios in order to suppress methane emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Replacing a rainfed cropping system with an irrigated one is widely assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation. However, many agricultural impact studies have not necessarily accounted for the space-time variations in the water availability under changing climate and land use. Moreover, many hydrologic and agricultural assessments of climate change impacts are not fully integrated. To overcome this shortcoming, a tool that can simultaneously simulate the dynamic interactions between crop production and water resources in a watershed is essential. Here we propose the regional production and circulation coupled model (CROVER) by embedding the PRYSBI-2 (Process-based Regional Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference version 2) large-area crop model into the global water resources model (called H08), and apply this model to the Songhua River watershed in Northeast China. The evaluation reveals that the model's performance in capturing the major characteristics of historical change in surface soil moisture, river discharge, actual crop evapotranspiration, and soybean yield relative to the reference data during the interval 1979-2010 is satisfactory accurate. The simulation experiments using the model demonstrated that subregional irrigation management, such as designating the area to which irrigation is primarily applied, has measurable influences on the regional crop production in a drought year. This finding suggests that reassessing climate change risk in agriculture using this type of modeling is crucial not to overestimate potential of irrigation-based adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The currently available studies on the green-up date were mainly based on ground observations and/or satellite data, and few model simulations integrated with wide coverage satellite data have been reported at large scale over a long time period (i.e., > 30 years). In this study, we combined phenology mechanism model, long-term climate data and synoptic scale remote sensing data to investigate the change in the green-up dates for Quercus mongolica over 33 weather stations in Northeast China and its climate-driven mechanism during 1962-2012. The results indicated that the unified phenology model can be well parameterized with the satellite derived green-up dates. The optimal daily mean temperature for chilling effect was between -27°C and 1°C for Q. mongolica in Northeast China, while the optimal daily mean temperature for forcing effect was above -3°C. The green-up dates for Q. mongolica across Northeast China showed a delayed latitudinal gradient of 2.699 days degree-1, with the earliest date on the Julian day 93 (i.e., 3th April) in the south and the latest date on the Julian day 129 (i.e., 9th May) in the north. The green-up date for Q. mongolica in Northeast China has advanced 6.6 days (1.3 days decade-1) from 1962 to 2012. With the prevailing warming in autumn, winter and spring in Northeast China during the past 51 years, the chilling effect for Q. mongolica has been weakened, while the forcing effect has been enhanced. The advancing trend in the green-up dates for Q. mongolica implied that the enhanced forcing effect to accelerate green-up was stronger than the weakened chilling effect to hold back green-up while the changes of both effects were caused by the warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plastic film mulching (PM) has been widely used to improve maize (Zea mays L.) yields and water use efficiency (WUE) in Northeast China, but the effects of PM in a changing climate characterized by highly variable precipitation are not well understood. Six site-year field experiments were conducted in the dry and rainy years to investigate the effects of PM on maize growth, grain yield, and WUE in Northeast China. Compared to crops grown without PM treatment (control, CK), PM significantly increased the grain yield by 15-26% in the dry years, but no significant yield increase was observed in the rainy years. Yield increase in the dry years was mainly due to a large increase in dry matter accumulation pre-silking compared to the CK, which resulted from a greater dry matter accumulation rate due to the higher topsoil temperature and water content. As a result, the WUE of the crops that underwent PM (3.27 kg m-3) treatment was also increased by around 16% compared to the CK, although the overall evapotranspiration was similar between the two treatments. In the rainy years, due to frequent precipitation and scant sunshine, the topsoil temperature and water content in the field that received PM treatment was improved only at some stages and failed to cause higher dry matter accumulation, except at the 8th leaf stage. Consequently, the grain yield and WUE were not improved by PM in the rainy years. In addition, we found that PM caused leaf senescence at the late growth stage in both dry and rainy years. Therefore, in practice, PM should be applied cautiously, especially when in-season precipitation is taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Daily precipitation data from 34 weather stations in Northeast China from 1960 to 2008 are used to examine trends in the occurrence of dry days and prolonged dry episodes. Trends in the mean length and frequency of prolonged dry episodes, as well as the number of dry days within prolonged dry episodes ( DDPDE), are computed regionally and for individual stations at the threshold levels of 1 and 2 mm day−1. Regionally, the number of dry days is increasing in the summer half-year and decreasing in the winter half-year. DDPDE is significantly increasing in the summer half-year; the increased frequency of dry spells has the greatest effect. The mean length of prolonged dry episodes in the winter half-year has decreased significantly. Our results indicate that neither the frequency nor the mean length of prolonged dry episodes, alone, can adequately describe the short-term dry conditions of an area. Multiple characteristics of dry spells, including frequency, length, and the number of DDPDE should be considered. DDPDE is a function of both the frequency and length of dry episodes, but may be more influenced by one or the other characteristics of dry spells, depending on the season or region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, authors examine the variabilities of precipitation and surface air temperature (T2m) in Northeast China during 1948-2012, and their global connection, as well as the predictability. It is noted that both the precipitation and T2m variations in Northeast China are dominated by interannual and higher frequency variations. However, on interdecadal time scales, T2m is shifted significantly from below normal to above normal around 1987/1988. Statistically, the seasonal mean precipitation and T2m are largely driven by local internal atmospheric variability rather than remote forcing. For the precipitation variation, circulation anomalies in the low latitudes play a more important role in spring and summer than in autumn and winter. For T2m variations, the associated sea surface pressure (SLP) and 850-hPa wind (uv850) anomalies are similar for all seasons in high latitudes with significantly negative correlations for SLP and westerly wind anomaly for uv850, suggesting that a strong zonal circulation in the high latitudes favors warming in Northeast China. The predictability of precipitation and T2m in Northeast China is assessed by using the Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project type experiments which are forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) and time-evolving greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Results suggest that T2m has slightly higher predictability than precipitation in Northeast China. To some extent, the model simulates the interdecadal shift of T2m around 1987/1988, implying a possible connection between SST (and/or GHG forcing) and surface air temperature variation in Northeast China on interdecadal time scales. Nevertheless, the precipitation and T2m variations are mainly determined by the unpredictable components which are caused by the atmospheric internal dynamic processes, suggesting low predictability for the climate variation in Northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maize is one of the major cultivated crops of China, having a central role in ensuring the food security of the country. There has been a significant increase in studies of maize under interactive effects of elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and other factors, yet the interactive effects of elevated [CO2] and increasing precipitation on maize has remained unclear. In this study, a manipulative experiment in Jinzhou, Liaoning province, Northeast China was performed so as to obtain reliable results concerning the later effects. The Open Top Chambers (OTCs) experiment was designed to control contrasting [CO2] i.e., 390, 450 and 550 µmol·mol−1, and the experiment with 15% increasing precipitation levels was also set based on the average monthly precipitation of 5–9 month from 1981 to 2010 and controlled by irrigation. Thus, six treatments, i.e. C550W+15%, C550W0, C450W+15%, C450W0, C390W+15% and C390W0 were included in this study. The results showed that the irrigation under elevated [CO2] levels increased the leaf net photosynthetic rate (Pn) and intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) of maize. Similarly, the stomatal conductance (Gs) and transpiration rate (Tr) decreased with elevated [CO2], but irrigation have a positive effect on increased of them at each [CO2] level, resulting in the water use efficiency (WUE) higher in natural precipitation treatment than irrigation treatment at elevated [CO2] levels. Irradiance-response parameters, e.g., maximum net photosynthetic rate (Pnmax) and light saturation points (LSP) were increased under elevated [CO2] and irrigation, and dark respiration (Rd) was increased as well. The growth characteristics, e.g., plant height, leaf area and aboveground biomass were enhanced, resulting in an improved of yield and ear characteristics except axle diameter. The study concluded by reporting that, future elevated [CO2] may favor to maize when coupled with increasing amount of precipitation in Northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The humification degree of peat is a significant climatic proxy for paleoclimate change. Using the alkali-extraction method, a time series of absorbance values of the Hani peatland, Northeast China, was determined, which is used as an indicator for the humification degree of peat. Combined with C dating data of peat cellulose, and compared with δO and δC time series of the cellulose in the Hani peatland, the evidence for the existence of 14 ka paleoclimate was provided. Higher humification degrees hint a warmer-wetter climate, and vice versa. It also reconstructs the four stages of Holocene climate evolution in this region: 11.5-9.8 cal ka B.P., warm and wet period; 9.8-9.0 cal ka B.P., cold and dry period; 9.0-4.8 cal ka B.P., warm and wet period; and 4.8-0 cal ka B.P., warm-wet and dry-cold alternation period. Meanwhile, it is revealed that the abrupt climate shifts signals such as the '8.2 ka' event and the '4.2 ka' event. Results showed that the Hani peat humification degree is of sensitive response to paleoclimate change. Therefore, it is a feasible method to analyze the relationship between paleoclimate change and peat humification degree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetland loss and climate change are known to alter regional and global methane (CH4) budgets. Over the last six decades, an extensive area of marshland has been converted to cropland on the Sanjiang Plain in northeast China, and a significant increase in air temperature has also been observed there, while the impacts on regional CH4 budgets remain uncertain. Through model simulation, we estimated the changes in CH4 emissions associated with the conversion of marshland to cropland and climate change in this area. Model simulations indicated a significant reduction of 1.1 Tg yr-1 (0.7-1.8 Tg yr-1) from the 1950s to the 2000s in regional CH4 emissions. The cumulative reduction of CH4 from 1960 to 2009 was estimated to be ~36 Tg (24-57 Tg) relative to the 1950s, and marshland conversion and the climate contributed 86%and 14%of this change, respectively. Interannual variation in precipitation (linear trend with P > 0.2) contributed to yearly fluctuations in CH4 emissions, but the relatively lower amount of precipitation over the period 1960-2009 (47 mm yr-1 lower on average than in the 1950s) contributed ~91% of the reduction in the area-weighted CH4 flux. Global warming at a rate of 0.3° per decade (P < 0.001) has increased CH4 emissions significantly since the 1990s. Relative to the mean of the 1950s, the warming-induced increase in the CH4 flux has averaged 19 kg ha-1 yr-1 over the last two decades. In the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the fifth IPCC assessment report (AR5), the CH4 fluxes are predicted to increase by 36%, 52%, 78% and 95%, respectively, by the 2080s compared to 1961-1990 in response to climate warming and wetting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was based on the daily meteorological data of 101 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 and the 0.25°×0.25° grid data from 1951 to 2100 simulated by RegCM3 under the future A1B climatic scenario published by National Climate Center, in combination with the demand of climatic condition for maize growth in Northeast China. The trajectory of agricultural climatic resources and the effects of climate change on variety distribution and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under future climate change were analyzed. The main agro-climatic resource factors include: the initial date daily average temperature stably passing 10°C (⩾10°C), the first frost date, the days of growing period, the ⩾10°C accumulated temperature, and the total radiation and precipitation in the growing period. The results showed that: (1) in the coming 100 years, the first date of ⩾10°C would be significantly advanced, and the first frost date would be delayed. The days of growing period would be extended, the ⩾10°C accumulated temperature and the total radiation would be significantly increased. However, no significant change was found in precipitation. (2) Due to the climate change, the early-maturing varieties will be gradually replaced by late-maturing varieties in Northeast China, and the planting boundaries of several maize varieties would be extended northward and eastward. (3) There would be a significant change in the climatic potential productivity of maize in Northeast China with the high-value gradually moving towards northeast. (4) It was an effective way to increase the climatic potential productivity of maize by appropriate adjustment of sowing date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the concept of ecoclimatic factor's guarantee rate, this study purposes to quantitatively analyze the interdecadal changes of the four major vegetation transition zones in Northeast China based on the warmth index first developed by Kira and the humidity index put forward by Xu during the period 1961-2007. On this basis, the responses of the interdecadal changes of vegetation transition zones to climate were analyzed. The results indicated that latitudinal vegetation transition zones had been moving laggingly to higher latitude (shifting upwards in altitude) and that longitudinal vegetation transition zones had been shifting slowly toward humid area in the whole sequence, whereas the shifts were fluctuant in stages. The changes of vegetation transition zones of Northeast China expressed in distribution and bandwidth responded to climate change, not only in the whole sequence but also in stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new tree-ring reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) spanning 1568-2007 CE from northeast Asia. Comparison of the instrumental AMO index, an existing tree-ring based AMO reconstruction, and this new record show strongly similar annual to multidecadal patterns of variation over the last 440 years. Warm phases of the AMO are related to increases in growth of Scots pine trees and moisture availability in northeast China and central eastern Siberia. Multi-tape method (MTM) and cross-wavelet analyses indicate that robust multidecadal (∼64-128 years) variability is present throughout the new proxy record. Our results have important implications concerning the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures on East Asian climate, and provide support for the possibility of an AMO signature on global multidecadal climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Songhua River plays a key role in the national development of China, owing to its unique natural condition and resources. Recent changes in the streamflow in the Songhua River are important with regard to local sustainable development and management under the background of global warming and aggravating soil erosion. In order to detect changes in the streamflow, two streamflow series from 1955 to 2004 (observed at the Harbin and Jiamusi stations) in the mainstream of Songhua River basin were obtained, and methods of statistical analysis, wavelet transform, and double mass analysis were employed to analyze the data. Reasons for the changes to the streamflow are discussed with respect to natural and man-made drivers. The results show the following: (1) From 1955 to 2004, the streamflow series present obvious declining trends. (2) The streamflow series followed the pattern of a wet-dry-wet-dry cycle pattern over the past 50 years. In the mainstream of Songhua River, wet years mainly occurred during the periods of 1955-1966 and 1984-1993, while dry years mainly occurred in the 1970s and after 2000. (3) Within the 50-year scale, the streamflow series appeared in the main periods of circa 33-, 13- and 4-year, in which the 33-year periodicity is the strongest. (4) Precipitation and temperature directly influenced the streamflow in the mainstream of the basin. The discharge was positively correlated with the precipitation and negatively correlated with the temperature. In addition, human activity was another important driving factor for streamflow change. (5) In the mainstream of Songhua River basin, the influences on streamflow can be divided into three periods: 1955-1976, 1977-1997, and 1998-2004. In the first period climate change played a dominant role, and during the latter two periods human influences were enhanced significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grassland fire dynamics are subject to myriad climatic, biological, and anthropogenic drivers, thresholds, and feedbacks and therefore do not conform to assumptions of statistical stationarity. The presence of non-stationarity in time series data leads to ambiguous results that can misinform regional-level fire management strategies. This study employs non-stationarity in time series data among multiple variables and multiple intensities using dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag models to elucidate key drivers of climate and ecological change on burned grasslands in Xilingol, China. We used unit root methods to select appropriate estimation methods for further analysis. Using the model estimations, we developed scenarios emulating the effects of instantaneous changes (i.e., shocks) of some significant variables on climate and ecological change. Changes in mean monthly wind speed and maximum temperature produce complex responses on area burned, directly, and through feedback relationships. Our framework addresses interactions among multiple drivers to explain fire and ecosystem responses in grasslands, and how these may be understood and prioritized in different empirical contexts needed to formulate effective fire management policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]