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Air-surface gas exchange of Hg0 was measured in five approximately bi-weekly campaigns (in total 87 days) over a wheat-corn rotation cropland located in the North China Plain using the relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) technique. The campaigns were separated over duration of a full year period (201-2013) aiming to capture the flux pattern over essential growing stages of the planting system with a low homogeneous topsoil Hg content (~ 45 ng g-1). Contrasting pollution regimes influenced air masses at the site and corresponding Hg0 concentration means (3.3 in late summer to 6.2 ng m-3 in winter) were unanimously above the typical hemispheric background of 1.5-1.7 ng m-3 during the campaigns. Extreme values in bi-directional net Hg0 exchange were primarily observed during episodes of peaking Hg0 concentrations. In tandem with under-canopy chamber measurements, the above-canopy REA measurements provided evidence for a balance between Hg0 ground emissions and uptake of Hg0 by the developed canopies. During the wheat growing season covering ~ 2/3 of the year at the site, net field-scale Hg0 emission was prevailing for periods of active plant growth until canopy senescence (mean flux: 20.0 ng m-3) disclosing the dominance of Hg0 soil efflux during warmer seasons. In the final vegetative stage of corn and wheat, ground and above-canopy Hg0 flux displayed inversed daytime courses with a near mid-day maximum (emission) and minimum (deposition), respectively. In contrast to wheat, Hg0 uptake of the corn canopy at this stage offset ground Hg0 emissions with additional removal of Hg0 from the atmosphere. Differential uptake of Hg0 between wheat (C3 species) and corn (C4 species) foliage is discernible from estimated Hg0 flux (per leaf area) and Hg content in mature cereal leaves being a factor of > 3 higher for wheat (at ~ 120 ng g-1 dry weight). Furthermore, this study shows that intermittent flood irrigation of the air-dry field induced a short pulse of Hg0 emission due to displacement of Hg0 present in the surface soil horizon. A more lingering effect of flood irrigation is however suppressed Hg0 soil emissions, which for wet soil (~ 30%-vol) beneath the corn canopy was on an average a factor of ~ 3 lower than that for drier soil (< 10%-vol) within wheat stands. Extrapolation of the campaign Hg0 flux data (mean: 7.1 ng m-2 h-1) to the whole year suggests the wheat-corn rotation cropland a net source of atmospheric Hg0. The observed magnitude of annual wet deposition flux (~ 8.8 µg Hg m-2) accounted for a minor fraction of soil Hg0 evasion flux prevailing over the majority of year. Therefore, we suggest that dry deposition of other forms of airborne Hg constitutes the dominant pathway of Hg input to this local ecosystem and that these deposited forms would be gradually transformed and re-emitted as Hg0 rather than being sequestered here. In addition, after crop harvesting, the practice of burning agricultural residue with considerable Hg content rather than straw return management yields seasonally substantial atmospheric Hg0 emissions from croplands in the NCP region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the causes of drought is important because the formation of large regional droughts is linked to global atmospheric system abnormalities in China. Information about the effects of drought on crop production is needed in order to improve understanding of a region's drought vulnerability and to improve food production safety in the North China Plain. This paper uses agricultural statistics and monthly Southern Oscillation Index data between 1961 and 2007 to quantitatively evaluate regional agricultural meteorological disasters and to assess the regressive models used to predict the grain yield and climatic yield losses caused by drought disasters. The data showed that the drought-covered area ratios declined, but the drought-affected area ratios rose. During the La Niña stage, the probability of a drought disaster was higher than during the El Niño stage, especially in Hebei. In the El Niño years, there were negative trends for the drought-covered, -affected and -destroyed area ratios in winter and positive trends in the other three seasons. In the La Niña years, the drought disaster area ratios were positive for all seasons. In Neutral years, there was more likely to be a drought event in autumn. The regression analyses for the three provinces showed that the grain climatic yield loss was significantly associated with the grain yield loss caused by drought disasters. This showed that regional grain yield simulations and evaluations of agro-meteorological disasters reliably predicted the field measured statistical data for drought disasters. Therefore, our results showed that there is a mixed seasonal trend in the drought disaster areas in the El Niño years, but a consistent upward trend for all seasons in the La Niña years. We also showed that the damage caused by drought disasters can be quantified by estimating the yield loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most important food production bases in China. However, its agriculture water resources are threatened by climate change. In this paper, the CROPWAT model is used to evaluate crop water requirement (CWR), crop green water requirement (CGWR), and crop blue water requirement (CBWR) for main crops in NCP (winter wheat, summer maize, cotton, millet, and soybean) with a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minute from 1961 to 2010. Their responses to future climate changes are investigated. The results show that the mean annual total CWR of the main crops during growing periods amounted to 114.68 km a in the past 50 years. More than 72 % of CWR to support NCP crop production is green water. The spatial distributions of CWR, CGWR, and CBWR are closely related to the planting areas and irrigation availability. Summer maize, millet, and soybean are high CGWR crops with proportions of above 84 %, while the lowest CGWR proportion is in winter wheat, 58.89 %. For climate change impacts in future, holding the crop planting system and irrigation conditions unchanged, it is projected that the total CWR in 2030s will require approximately 8.75-11.25 km a additional water. Results show that the CWR increase in 2030s is mainly due to the increase in temperature. Under the projected temperature in 2030s and the current rainfall scenario, total CWR, CGWR, and CBWR increments were 8.58, 1.76, and 6.82 km a, respectively. Nearly 80 % of the CWR increment is from the increase in CBWR. Therefore, agricultural water shortage crisis will further aggravate under future climate change scenarios in NCP, and effective water-saving measures must be taken to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the North China Plain, the grain yield of irrigated wheat-maize cropping system has been steadily increasing in the past decades under a significant warming climate. This paper combined regional and field data with modeling to analyze the changes in the climate in the last 40 years, and to investigate the influence of changes in crop varieties and management options to crop yield. In particular, we examined the impact of a planned adaptation strategy to climate change -'Double-Delay' technology, i.e., delay both the sowing time of wheat and the harvesting time of maize, on both wheat and maize yield. The results show that improved crop varieties and management options not only compensated some negative impact of reduced crop growth period on crop yield due to the increase in temperature, they have contributed significantly to crop yield increase. The increase in temperature before over-wintering stage enabled late sowing of winter wheat and late harvesting of maize, leading to overall 4-6% increase in total grain yield of the wheat-maize system. Increased use of farming machines and minimum tillage technology also shortened the time for field preparation from harvest time of summer maize to sowing time of winter wheat, which facilitated the later harvest of summer maize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From AD 1048 to 1128, Yellow River flooding killed over a million people, left many more homeless and destitute, and turned parts of the once fertile North China Plain into a silted-up agricultural wasteland. Brought on in part by climate change and the Northern Song dynasty’s (AD 960–1127) mismanagement of the environment, the Yellow River floods likely hastened the collapse of the Northern Song dynasty. Despite the magnitude of this flood event, no sedimentary deposits have yet been linked to these historically recorded floods. In this research paper, we provide archaeological, sedimentary, and radiocarbon evidence of the AD 1048–1128 Yellow River floods at the Dazhanglongcun, Xidacheng, and Daguxiancun sites in Neihuang County, Henan Province. Based on our data, we argue that the AD 1048–1128 Yellow River floods deposited over 5 m of alluvium on villages in the North China Plain, radically changing both the physical and political landscape of Northern Song dynasty China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important agricultural production area in China. Crop production in the NCP is sensitive to changes in both climate and management practices. While previous studies showed a negative impact of climatic change on crop yield since 1980s, the confounding effects of climatic and agronomic factors have not been separately investigated. This paper used 25 years of crop data from three locations (Nanyang, Zhengzhou and Luancheng) across the NCP, together with daily weather data and crop modeling, to analyse the contribution of changes in climatic and agronomic factors to changes in grain yields of wheat and maize. The results showed that the changes in climate were not uniform across the NCP and during different crop growth stages. Warming mainly occurred during the vegetative (preflowering) growth stage of wheat and maize, while there was a cooling trend or no significant change in temperatures during the postflowering stage of wheat (spring) or maize (autumn). If varietal effects were excluded, warming during vegetative stages would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for both crops, generally leading to a negative impact on crop production. However, autonomous adoption of new crop varieties in the NCP was able to compensate the negative impact of climatic change. For both wheat and maize, the varietal changes helped stabilize the length of preflowering period against the shortening effect of warming and, together with the slightly reduced temperature in the postflowering period, extend the length of the grain-filling period. The combined effect led to increased wheat yield at Zhengzhou and Luancheng; increased maize yield at Nanyang and Luancheng; stabilized wheat yield at Nanyang, and a slight reduction in maize yield at Zhengzhou, compared with the yield change caused entirely by climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses a WRF model to simulate the climate for 2000-2008 and the future climate change for 2051-2059 over the North China Plain under A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios. To validate the accuracy of a WRF simulation, the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) data are introduced in this paper. Considering the effectiveness of GLDAS data first is necessary because these data are the products generated by employing satellite and ground-based observational data. The observations of 49 weather stations (MET) over the North China Plain are selected. The spatial-temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation of GLDAS are highly consistent with those of the MET. A comparison of temperature and precipitation between that of WRF and GLDAS shows that the temperature generated by WRF is overestimated, but the precipitation rate it obtains is consistent with that of GLDAS (R = 0.94). The temperature obtained by WRF that is corrected by a bias correction technique, which is based on the cumulative distribution function, has a high correlation with that of GLDAS. The results of this study can be used to learn the influence of climate change on agriculture and water resources by deriving a crop model and a hydrological model on a regional scale. Results show that the mean temperature will increase by 0.21°C, 1.20°C and 1.55°C; the daily maximum temperature by 0.74°C, 1.76°C and 2.20°C; and the daily minimum temperature by -0.41°C, 0.52°C and 0.79°C under B1, A1B and A2, respectively. On the other hand, to a certain extent, precipitation will decrease by 6.1%, 13.7% and 7.8% under B1, A1B and A2 in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land degradation is a complex process which involves both the natural ecosystem and the socioeconomic system, among which climate and land use changes are the two predominant driving factors. To comprehensively and quantitatively analyze the land degradation process, this paper employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy to assess land degradation and further applied the binary panel logit regression model to analyze the impacts of the driving factors on land degradation in the North China Plain. The results revealed that an increase in rainfall and temperature would significantly and positively contribute to the land improvement, and conversion from cultivated land to grassland and forest land showed positive relationship with land improvement, while conversion to built-up area will lead to land degradation. Besides, human agricultural intensification represented by fertilizer utilization will help to improve the land quality. The economic development may exert positive impacts on land quality to alleviate land degradation, although the rural economic development and agricultural production will exert negative impacts on the land and lead to land degradation. Infrastructure construction would modify the land surface and further resulted in land degradation. The findings of the research will provide scientific information for sustainable land management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetland shrinkage and ecological function decline have become huge obstacles to regional and national sustainable development. In this paper, we comparatively analyzed three typical wetland ecosystems in the Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) Area, to clarify the similarities and differences of each pattern and their change process, as well as their intrinsic correlation mechanism. The satellite images were applied to construct the time-series wetland landscape maps in the last 30 years. Then landscape indices and information entropy metric were used to qualify the pattern and its change process respectively. The results showed that, the wetlands in 3H Area reached 32,632.9 km² in 2000, with the natural wetlands of 9,817.9 km², occupying 2.21 percent of the whole 3H Area, lower than the average national level. In the last 30 years, the wetland area in 3H Area like all typical wetland subsystems decreased significantly, therein, natural wetland shrinking and artificial wetland increasing presented the different processes of wetland components and drive mechanisms, implying a complex ecological response to pattern evolution in 3H Area. The discussion on the driving forces system indicates that it is very necessary for the recovery and reconstruction of wetland system that regulates hydrological process in line with natural rules. It would provide possible measures to regulate and control the wetland ecosystem in 3H Area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In the North China Plain (NCP), while irrigation using groundwater has maintained a high-level crop productivity of the wheat–maize double cropping systems, it has resulted in rapid depletion of groundwater table. For more efficient and sustainable utilization of the limited water resources, improved understanding of how crop productivity and water balance components respond to climate variations and irrigation is essential. This paper investigates such responses using a modelling approach. The farming systems model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) was first calibrated and validated using 3 years of experimental data. The validated model was then applied to simulate crop yield and field water balance of the wheat–maize rotation in the NCP. Simulated dryland crop yield ranged from 0 to 4.5tha−1 for wheat and 0 to 5.0tha−1 for maize. Increasing irrigation amount led to increased crop yield, but irrigation required to obtain maximum water productivity (WP) was much less than that required to obtain maximum crop yield. To meet crop water demand, a wide range of irrigation water supply would be needed due to the inter-annual climate variations. The range was simulated to be 140–420mm for wheat, and 0–170mm for maize. Such levels of irrigation applications could potentially lead to about 1.5myear−1 decline in groundwater table when other sources of groundwater recharge were not considered. To achieve maximum WP, one, two and three irrigations (i.e., 70, 150 and 200mmseason−1) were recommended for wheat in wet, medium and dry seasons, respectively. For maize, one irrigation and two irrigations (i.e., 60 and 110mmseason−1) were recommended in medium and dry seasons, while no irrigation was needed in wet season. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature extremes have been investigated in Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) region based on the daily series of temperature observations from 162 meteorological stations. A total of 11 indices were used to assess the changes of temperature pattern. Linear trend analyses revealed that the daily maximum temperature (TXx) increased at α = 0.05 level with a magnitude of 0.15 °C per decade on the regional scale during the period of 1961-2014. More pronounced warming trend of the daily minimum temperature (TNn) was detected at a rate of 0.49 °C per decade (α = 0.01 level). Consequently, a decreasing trend of the temperature range of TXx and TNn (extreme temperature range) was observed. The frequency of hot days (TXf90) and annual average of warm events (warm spell duration indicator, WSDI) showed significant increasing trends, while that of cold nights (TNf10) and cold events (cold spell duration indicator, CSDI) showed opposite behaviors. Both warm winter (W-W) and hot summer (H-S) series displayed significant increasing trends at α = 0.01 confidence level. The cold winter (C-W) series showed a decreasing trend at α = 0.01 confidence level, while the cool summer (C-S) series showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend that is not passing the 90% confidence level (α = 0.1). Abrupt increments of warm­related extremes (TXx, TXf90, WSDI) have been detected since 1990s, and a steadily decreasing trend of cold related extremes (TNf10, CSDI) was found since 1970s. Ten hot summers out of 11 and nine warm winters out of 10 occurred after 1990s. Altitude has a large impact on spatial pattern of extreme temperature indices, and the urban heat island effect also has an impact on amplitude of variation in extreme temperature. Trend magnitudes are significantly larger at sites with high altitudes for warm­related indices (TXx, TXf90, WSDI), while those involving cold-related indices (TNn, TNf10) are remarkably larger for stations with low altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize ( Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981-2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9-40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3-8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 15-30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981-2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12-24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3-9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9-3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46-67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3∼3.8 days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.0∼19.4 %) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (−3.3 to −54.8 kg ha year, except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The feedback between aerosol and meteorological variables in the atmospheric boundary layer over the North China Plain (NCP) is analyzed by conducting numerical experiments with and without the aerosol direct and indirect effects via a coupled meteorology and aerosol/chemistry model (WRF-Chem). The numerical experiments are performed for the period of 2-26 January 2013, during which a severe fog-haze event (10-15 January 2013) occurred, with the simulated maximum hourly surface PM2.5 concentration of ~600 ug m-3, minimum atmospheric visibility of ~0.3 km, and 10-100 hours of simulated hourly surface PM2.5 concentration above 300 ug m-3 over NCP. A comparison of model results with aerosol feedback against observations indicates that the model can reproduce the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature, relative humidity (RH), wind, surface PM2.5 concentration, atmospheric visibility, and aerosol optical depth reasonably well. Analysis of model results with and without aerosol feedback shows that during the fog-haze event aerosols lead to a significant negative radiative forcing of -20 to -140 W m-2 at the surface and a large positive radiative forcing of 20-120 W m-2 in the atmosphere and induce significant changes in meteorological variables with maximum changes during 09:00-18:00 local time (LT) over urban Beijing and Tianjin and south Hebei: the temperature decreases by 0.8-2.8 °C at the surface and increases by 0.1-0.5 °C at around 925 hPa, while RH increases by about 4-12% at the surface and decreases by 1-6% at around 925 hPa. As a result, the aerosol-induced equivalent potential temperature profile change shows that the atmosphere is much more stable and thus the surface wind speed decreases by up to 0.3 m s-1 (10%) and the atmosphere boundary layer height decreases by 40-200 m (5-30%) during the daytime of this severe fog-haze event. Owing to this more stable atmosphere during 09:00-18:00, 10-15~January, compared to the surface PM2.5 concentration from the model results without aerosol feedback, the average surface PM2.5 concentration increases by 10-50 µg m-3 (2-30%) over Beijing, Tianjin, and south Hebei and the maximum increase of hourly surface PM2.5 concentration is around 50 (70%), 90 (60%), and 80 µg m-3 (40%) over Beijing, Tianjin, and south Hebei, respectively. Although the aerosol concentration is maximum at nighttime, the mechanism of feedback, by which meteorological variables increase the aerosol concentration most, occurs during the daytime (around 10:00 and 16:00 LT). The results suggest that aerosol induces a more stable atmosphere, which is favorable for the accumulation of air pollutants, and thus contributes to the formation of fog-haze events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the water shortage areas of China. Lack of water resources restricted the economic and social development of North China area and resulted in deterioration of ecosystem and natural environment. Influenced by the climate change and human activities, the water circulation of NCP was largely changed and the crisis of water resources was aggravated. Therefore, it is important to study the features of the extreme climate and the response mechanism of groundwater to climate change. We analyzed the trend of climate change and extreme climate features in the past 60 years based on the monitoring data of meteorological stations. And then the response characteristics of groundwater to climate change were discussed. The average temperature of NCP was in an obviously upward trend. The overall precipitation variation was in a downward trend. The climate change in this area showed a warming-drying trend. The intensity of extreme precipitation displayed a trend of declining and then increasing from north to south as well as declining from eastern coastal plain to the piedmont plain. Grey correlation degree analysis indicated that groundwater depth had a close relationship with precipitation and human activities in NCP. The response of groundwater level to precipitation differed from the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain to the coastal plain. The response was more obvious in the coastal plain than the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain and the middle plain. The precipitation influenced the groundwater depth both directly and indirectly. Under the condition of extreme precipitation, the impact would aggravate, in the forms of rapid or lag raise of groundwater levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamics of cropland soil organic carbon (SOC) in response to different management practices and environmental conditions across North China Plain (NCP) were studied using a modeling approach. We identified the key variables driving SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (10 km×10 km) and long time scale (90 years). The model used future climatic data from the FGOALS model based on four future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration scenarios. Agricultural practices included different rates of nitrogen (N) fertilization, manure application, and stubble retention. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the management practices of stubble retention (linearly positive), manure application (linearly positive) and nitrogen fertilization (nonlinearly positive) – and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative). Temperature had weakly positive effects, while precipitation had negligible impacts on SOC dynamics under current irrigation management. The effects of increased N fertilization on SOC changes were most significant between the rates of 0 and 300 kg ha−1 yr−1. With a moderate rate of manure application (i.e., 2000 kg ha−1 yr−1), stubble retention (i.e., 50%), and an optimal rate of nitrogen fertilization (i.e., 300 kg ha−1 yr−1), more than 60% of the study area showed an increase in SOC, and the average SOC density across NCP was relatively steady during the study period. If the rates of manure application and stubble retention doubled (i.e., manure application rate of 4000 kg ha−1 yr−1 and stubble retention rate of 100%), soils across more than 90% of the study area would act as a net C sink, and the average SOC density kept increasing from 40 Mg ha−1 during 2010s to the current worldwide average of ∼55 Mg ha−1 during 2060s. The results can help target agricultural management practices for effectively mitigating climate change through soil C sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT It is important to investigate potential changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation for assessing the impacts of future climate change on agricultural production for specific regions. In this study, climate scenarios of precipitation, temperature and solar radiation for the North China Plain ( NCP) were constructed in terms of stochastic daily weather sequences. A nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model ( NHMM) was used to downscale daily precipitation projections at 32 stations during winter wheat and summer maize growing seasons for a baseline (1966-2005) and a 21st century (2080-2099) A1B scenario, using selected general circulation models ( GCMs). A climatological seasonal cycle of regional-averaged daily reanalysis precipitation was used as input to the down-scaling for the baseline simulation; this input was then scaled by the precipitation changes from GCM projections to generate down-scaled stochastic simulations of precipitation in the 21st century. Temperature was generated using a weakly stationary generating process, conditional on precipitation occurrence, with 21st century additive changes taken from the GCMs at the regional scale. Three hypotheses about changes in solar radiation (−20%, 0% and 20%) were made considering the large uncertainty in its future change. The down-scaled simulations exhibit station increases in the mean daily rainfall of 13.9-69.7% in the scenarios driven by the GCM with the projected largest and multi-model mean precipitation increase for the wheat season, with changes of 0.4-29.9% for the maize season. In the scenario driven by the GCM with the largest projected precipitation decrease, the simulated rainfall decreases at all stations, with changes ranging from −24.6 to −0.1% for the wheat and maize seasons, respectively. Temperature increases by about 3.7 °C for the wheat season and 3.6 °C for the maize season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical case studies of climate change impacts and the resulting social responses can provide analogies for better understanding the impacts of current and future climate changes. Around the turn of the 19th century, the climate of the North China Plain experienced a shift from a relatively warm stage in the 18th century to a colder stage in the 19th century, which was characterised by a much colder climate and more frequent and severe floods and droughts. Historical information about refugees, social disorder, grain transportation, and disaster relief on the North China Plain in 1780-1819 is collected from the Veritable Records of the Qing Dynasty (a collection of official records). The mechanism of climate change affecting the food security of the society, as indicated by the development of a refugee problem around the turn of the 19th century, is analyzed by examining the social vulnerability. There are four basic findings: (1) In the 40 years from 1780-1819, the society on the North China Plain was unstable and characterised by a significant deterioration of the refugee situation. The number of refugees increased markedly, and their behaviour became increasingly violent. In the 1780s, most of the disaster victims chose to stay at their residences waiting for relief. From 1790 to 1800, hundreds of thousands of refugees migrated to northeast China. In the 1810s, the frequency of farmer rebellions increased sharply. (2) The increase in instability corresponded to the climatic cooling over the same time period. The increased instability was a result of the negative impacts of climate change accumulating and transmitting to the social level. (3) For food security, a precondition for the negative impacts of climate change on human society was the vulnerability of the regional socioeconomic system, which had a high sensitivity and low capacity to respond. This vulnerability could be described by the following three observations: ① The regional balance of supply and demand for food was in a critical state, which led to a high sensitivity and dramatic reduction in yield that was caused by climate change; ② the capacity for disaster relief efforts by the government was too low to meet the needs of crisis management; ③ the capacity for refugees' resettlement in eastern Inner Mongolia and northeast China, which both border the North China Plain, was severely restricted by climatic conditions or the quarantine policy. (4) It is estimated that climate change caused the social vulnerability to reach a critical level approximately 20 years earlier on the North China Plain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three statistical downscaling methods (conditional resampling statistical downscaling model: CR-SDSM, the generalised linear model for daily climate time series: GLIMCLIM, and the non-homogeneous hidden Markov model: NHMM) for multi-site daily rainfall were evaluated and compared in the North China Plain (NCP). The comparison focused on a range of statistics important for hydrological studies including rainfall amount, extreme rainfall, intra-annual variability, and spatial coherency. The results showed that no single model performed well over all statistics/timescales, suggesting that the user should chose appropriate methods after assessing their advantages and limitations when applying downscaling methods for particular purposes. Specifically, the CR-SDSM provided relatively robust results for annual/monthly statistics and extreme characteristics, but exhibited weakness for some daily statistics, such as daily rainfall amount, dry-spell length, and annual wet/dry days. GLIMCLIM performed well for annual dry/wet days, dry/wet spell length, and spatial coherency, but slightly overestimated the daily rainfall. Additionally, NHMM performed better for daily rainfall and annual wet/dry days, but slightly underestimated dry/wet spell length and overestimated the daily extremes. The results of this study could be applied when investigating climate change impact on hydrology and water availability for the NCP, which suffers from intense water shortages due to climate change and human activities in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global dimming is currently an active area of research in climate change. Trends of temporal (on the order of decades, years, seasons or even months) and spatial patterns in sunshine hours and associated climatic factors (average air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed) over North China are evaluated for the period 1965~1999 based on data from 81 standard meteorological stations. The results show that: (1) North China is experiencing decreasing sunshine hours (–82.855 h/decade); (2) seasonally, decline in sunshine hours is highest in summer and lowest in winter; (3) spatially, decrease in sunshine hours is highest in inland and plain regions and lowest in the northwest mountain and coastland regions; (4) sunshine hours have a high correlation with precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed, with wind speed having the strongest influence on sunshine hours implicit in the close correlation (temporally and spatially) between the two variables; (5) cloud cover could not be any significant driver of sunshine-hour decline because it is more or less stable; (6) spatially and seasonally, wind speed is an important driving factor of decreasing sunshine hours in North China. Furthermore, the interactions between wind speed and aerosol loading may be an enabling factor of wind speed in driving (strongly) the changes in sunshine hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The organic carbon, permeability test, grain size, chemical composition, and mineral composition were analyzed for 147 samples collected from the Luan River catchment, Hebei province, China, to quantitatively characterize the effects of land use, climate change, sedimentary environment, mineral composition, and chemical composition on the spatial and temporal variation of soil organic carbon (SOC). The results indicate that there was higher SOC content and stronger variation in the south plain than in the northern low mountain. The effects of land use, climate change, and sedimentary environment on SOC distribution were greater than the effects of mineral composition and chemical composition. The cropping systems in the Luan River catchment resulted in significant difference in SOC concentration between the south plain and north mountain. The precipitation mainly transmitted its effects through the sedimentary environment to SOC, which caused the stronger temporal variation in SOC from June to October in the south plain. The north mountain did not have significant temporal variation because of the lower hydraulic conductivity of the sedimentary sequence. The spatial variation of SOC was correlated with land use, and their temporal variation was attributed to climate change and sedimentary environment. Apart from land use, the decision maker can also affect the organic carbon mineral and sequence through the sedimentary environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing demand on groundwater resources and the semi-arid climate in the North China Plain (NCP) highlight the need for improved understanding of connections between regional climate change and groundwater recharge. Hydrologic time series of precipitation and groundwater levels were analyzed in three representative geographical zones throughout the NCP for the period of 1960-2008 using trend analysis and spectral analysis methods. A significant change point around 1975 is followed by a long-term decline trend in precipitation time series, which coincides with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation positive phase. However, the magnitudes of groundwater level variability due to heavy pumping overwhelm the low-frequency signal of groundwater levels. Nonlinear trends that related to long-term climatic variability and anthropogenic activities are removed by using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method. Spectral analyses of the detrended residuals demonstrate significant short-term oscillations at the frequencies of 2-7 years, which have strong correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation modes. This study contributes to improved understanding of dynamic relationship between groundwater and climate variability modes in the NCP and demonstrates the importance of reliable detrending methods for groundwater levels that are affected greatly by pumping. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]