Search

Introduction: Studies suggest that the HIV-1 epidemic in the Netherlands may have become more virulent, leading to faster disease progression if untreated. Analysis of CD4 cell count decline before antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, a surrogate marker for disease progression, may be hampered by informative censoring as ART initiation is more likely with a steeper CD4 cell count decline. Methods: Development of CD4 cell count from 9 to 48 months after seroconversion was analyzed using a mixed-effects model and 2 models that jointly modeled CD4 cell counts and time to censoring event (start ART, <100 CD4 cells/mm3, or AIDS) among therapy-naïve MSM HIV-1 seroconverters in the Netherlands. These models make different assumptions about the censoring process. Results: All 3 models estimated lower median CD4 cell counts 9 months after seroconversion in later calendar years (623, 582, and 541 cells/mm3 for 1984–1995 [n = 111], 1996–2002 [n = 139], and 2003–2007 seroconverters [n = 356], respectively, shared-parameter model). Only the 2 joint-models found a trend for a steeper decline of CD4 cell counts with seroconversion in later calendar years (overall p-values 0.002 and 0.06 for the pattern-mixture and the shared-parameter model, respectively). In the shared-parameter model the median decline from 9 to 48 months was 276 cellsmm3 for 1984–1995 seroconverters and 308 cells/mm3 for 2003–2007 seroconverters (difference in slope, p = 0.045). Conclusion: Mixed-effects models underestimate the CD4 cell decline prior to starting ART. Joint-models suggest that CD4 cell count declines more rapidly in patients infected between 2003 and 2007 compared to patients infected before 1996. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We performed a nationwide prospective study on the transmission risk for Borrelia to humans, investigating symptoms and serology at enrolment and three months after tick bites, and after standard treatment for erythema migrans (EM). Aiming to quantify the infection risk at point of care by physicians, we explored risk factors such as tick testing for Borrelia and assessment of the duration of the tick's blood meal. Methods and Findings: Questionnaires, blood samples and ticks from patients who consulted one of 307 general practitioners for tick bites (n = 327) or EM (n = 283) in 2007 and 2008, were collected at enrolment and three months later at follow-up. Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato DNA was detected in 29.3% of 314 ticks, using PCR/reverse line blot and real-time PCR on the OspA gene. Seroconversion in C6 ELISA, IgM or IgG immunoblots for Borrelia-specific antibodies was observed in 3.2% of tick bite cases. Fourteen tick bite cases had evidence of early Borrelia infection, of which EM developed among seven cases. The risk of developing EM after tick bites was 2.6% (95%CI: 1.1%–5.0%), and the risk of either EM or seroconversion was 5.1% (95%CI: 2.9%–8.2%). Participants with Borrelia-positive ticks had a significantly higher risk of either EM or seroconversion (odds ratio 4.8, 95%CI: 1.1–20.4), and of seroconversion alone (odds ratio 11.1, 95%CI: 1.1–108.9). A third (34%) of the cases enrolled with EM did not recall preceding tick bites. Three EM cases (1%) reported persisting symptoms, three months after standard antibiotic treatment for EM. Conclusions: One out of forty participants developed EM within three months after tick bites. The infection risk can be assessed by tick testing for Borrelia at point of care by physicians. However, further refining is needed considering sensitivity and specificity of tick tests, accuracy of tick attachment time and engorgement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The aim of the present study was to estimate the effectiveness of the MF59™-adjuvanted influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine against medically attended influenza-like illness and RT-PCR confirmed influenza in the at-risk population and persons over 60 in the Netherlands. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a Dutch based GP medical record database between 30 November 2009 and 1 March 2010 to estimate the vaccine effectiveness against influenza-like illness. Within the cohort we nested a test negative case-control study to estimate the effectiveness against laboratory confirmed influenza. Results: The crude effectiveness in preventing diagnosed or possible influenza-like illness was 17.3% (95%CI: −8.5%–36.9%). Of the measured covariates, age, the severity of disease and health seeking behaviour through devised proxies confounded the association between vaccination and influenza-like illness. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 20.8% (95%CI: −5.4%, 40.5%) and varied significantly by age, being highest in adults up to 50 years (59%, 95%CI: 23%, 78%), and non-detectable in adults over 50 years. The number of cases in the nested case control study was too limited to validly estimate the VE against confirmed influenza. Conclusions: With our study we demonstrated that the approach of combining a cohort study in a primary health care database with field sampling is a feasible and useful option to monitor VE of influenza vaccines in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: To examine whether drug users (DU) in the Amsterdam Cohort Study (ACS) are still at risk for HIV, we studied trends in HIV incidence and injecting and sexual risk behaviour from 1986 to 2011. Methods: The ACS is an open, prospective cohort study on HIV. Calendar time trends in HIV incidence were modelled using Poisson regression. Trends in risk behaviour were modelled via generalized estimating equations. In 2010, a screening for STI (chlamydia, gonorrhoea and syphilis) was performed. Determinants of unprotected sex were studied using logistic regression analysis. Results: The HIV incidence among 1298 participants of the ACS with a total follow-up of 12,921 person-years (PY) declined from 6.0/100 PY (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.2–11.1) in 1986 to less than 1/100 PY from 1997 onwards. Both injection and sexual risk behaviour declined significantly over time. Out of 197 participants screened for STI in 2010–2011, median age 49 years (IQR 43–59), only 5 (2.5%) were diagnosed with an STI. In multivariable analysis, having a steady partner (aOR 4.1, 95% CI 1.6–10.5) was associated with unprotected sex. HIV-infected participants were less likely to report unprotected sex (aOR 0.07, 95% CI 0.02–0.37). Conclusions: HIV incidence and injection risk behaviour declined from 1986 onwards. STI prevalence is low; unprotected sex is associated with steady partners and is less common among HIV-infected participants. These findings indicate a low transmission risk of HIV and STI, which suggests that DU do not play a significant role in the current spread of HIV in Amsterdam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Making treatment decisions in anticipation of possible future incapacity is an important part of patient participation in end-of-life decision-making. This study estimates and compares the prevalence of GP-patient end-of-life treatment discussions and patients’ appointment of surrogate decision-makers in Italy, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands and examines associated factors. Methods: A cross-sectional, retrospective survey was conducted with representative GP networks in four countries. GPs recorded the health and care characteristics in the last three months of life of 4,396 patients who died non-suddenly. Prevalences were estimated and logistic regressions were used to examine between country differences and country-specific associated patient and care factors. Results: GP-patient discussion of treatment preferences occurred for 10%, 7%, 25% and 47% of Italian, Spanish, Belgian and of Dutch patients respectively. Furthermore, 6%, 5%, 16% and 29% of Italian, Spanish, Belgian and Dutch patients had a surrogate decision-maker. Despite some country-specific differences, previous GP-patient discussion of primary diagnosis, more frequent GP contact, GP provision of palliative care, the importance of palliative care as a treatment aim and place of death were positively associated with preference discussions or surrogate appointments. A diagnosis of dementia was negatively associated with preference discussions and surrogate appointments. Conclusions: The study revealed a higher prevalence of treatment preference discussions and surrogate appointments in the two northern compared to the two southern European countries. Factors associated with preference discussions and surrogate appointments suggest that delaying diagnosis discussions impedes anticipatory planning, whereas early preference discussions, particularly for dementia patients, and the provision of palliative care encourage participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]