Search

Background: In large-scale epidemiology, bloodspot sampling by fingerstick onto filter paper has many advantages, including ease and low costs of collection, processing and transport. We describe the development of an enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) for quantifying insulin from dried blood spots and demonstrate its application in a large trial. Methods: We adapted an existing commercial kit (Mercodia Human Insulin ELISA, 10-1113-01) to quantify insulin from two 3-mm diameter discs (≈6 µL of blood) punched from whole blood standards and from trial samples. Paediatricians collected dried blood spots in a follow-up of 13,879 fasted children aged 11.5 years (interquartile range 11.3–11.8 years) from 31 trial sites across Belarus. We quantified bloodspot insulin levels and examined their distribution by demography and anthropometry. Results: Mean intra-assay (n = 157) coefficients of variation were 15% and 6% for ‘low’ (6.7 mU/L) and ‘high’ (23.1 mU/L) values, respectively; the respective inter-assay values (n = 33) were 23% and 11%. The intraclass correlation coefficient between 50 paired whole bloodspot versus serum samples, collected simultaneously, was 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.95). Bloodspot insulin was stable for at least 31 months at −80°C, for one week at +30°C and following four freeze-thaw cycles. Paediatricians collected a median of 8 blood spots from 13,487 (97%) children. The geometric mean insulin (log standard deviation) concentrations amongst 12,812 children were 3.0 mU/L (1.1) in boys and 4.0 mU/L (1.0) in girls and were positively associated with pubertal stage, measures of central and peripheral adiposity, height and fasting glucose. Conclusions: Our simple and convenient bloodspot assay is suitable for the measurement of insulin in very small volumes of blood collected on filter paper cards and can be applied to large-scale epidemiology studies of the early-life determinants of circulating insulin.

Introduction: Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) offers a recruitment strategy for hard-to-reach populations. However, RDS faces logistical and theoretical challenges that threaten efficiency and validity in settings worldwide. We present innovative adaptations to conventional RDS to overcome barriers encountered in recruiting a large, representative sample of men who have sex with men (MSM) who travel internationally. Methods: Novel methodological adaptations for the “International Travel Research to Inform Prevention” or “I-TRIP” study were offering participants a choice between electronic and paper coupons referrals for recruitment and modifying the secondary incentives structure from small cash amounts to raffle entries for periodic large cash prize raffle drawings. Staged referral limit increases from 3 to 10 referrals and progressive addition of 70 seeds were also implemented. Results: There were 501 participants enrolled in up to 13 waves of growth. Among participants with a choice of referral methods, 81% selected electronic referrals. Of participants who were recruited electronically, 90% chose to remain with electronic referrals when it was their turn to recruit. The mean number of enrolled referrals was 0.91 for electronic referrals compared to 0.56 for paper coupons. Median referral lag time, i.e., the time interval between when recruiters were given their referrals and when a referred individual enrolled in the study, was 20 days (IQR 10–40) for electronic referrals, 20 days (IQR 8–58) for paper coupons, 20 days (IQR 10–41) for raffle entries and 33 days (IQR 16–148) for small cash incentives. Conclusions: The recruitment of MSM who travel internationally required maximizing known flexible tools of RDS while at the same time necessitating innovations to increase recruitment efficiency. Electronic referrals emerged as a major advantage in recruiting this hard-to-reach population who are of high socio-economic status, geographically diffuse and highly mobile. These enhancements may improve the performance of RDS in target populations with similar characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Around 67 million pets are owned by households in the United Kingdom, and an increasing number of these are exotic animals. Approximately a third of pets are purchased through retail outlets or direct from breeders. A wide range of infections can be associated with companion animals. Objectives: This study uses a systematic literature review to describe the transmission of zoonotic disease in humans associated with a pet shop or other location selling pets (incidents of rabies tracebacks and zoonoses from pet food were excluded). Data sources: PubMed and EMBASE. Results: Fifty seven separate case reports or incidents were described in the 82 papers that were identified by the systematic review. Summary information on each incident is included in this manuscript. The infections include bacterial, viral and fungal diseases and range in severity from mild to life threatening. Infections associated with birds and rodents were the most commonly reported. Over half of the reports describe incidents in the Americas, and three of these were outbreaks involving more than 50 cases. Many of the incidents identified relate to infections in pet shop employees. Limitations: This review may have been subject to publication bias, where unusual and unexpected zoonotic infections may be over-represented in peer-reviewed publications. It was also restricted to English-language articles so that pathogens that are more common in non-Western countries, or in more exotic animals not common in Europe and the Americas, may have been under-represented. Conclusions/implications: A wide spectrum of zoonotic infections are acquired from pet shops. Salmonellosis and psittacosis were the most commonly documented diseases, however more unusual infections such as tularemia also appeared in the review. Given their potential to spread zoonotic infection, it is important that pet shops act to minimise the risk as far as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a stratified analysis, the results from different strata if homogeneity assumption is met are pooled together to obtain a single summary estimate for the common effect parameter. However, the effect can appear homogeneous across strata using one measure but heterogeneous using another. Consequently, two researchers analyzing the same data can arrive at conflicting conclusions if they use different effect measures. In this paper, the author draws on the sufficient component cause model to develop a stratified-analysis method regarding a particular effect measure, the ‘peril ratio’. When there is no mechanistic interaction between the exposure under study and the stratifying variable (i.e., when they do not work together to complete any sufficient cause), the peril ratio is constant across strata. The author presents formulas for the estimation of such a common peril ratio. Three real data are re-analyzed for illustration. When the data is consistent with peril-ratio homogeneity in a stratified analysis, researchers can use the formulas in this paper to pool the strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This paper examines the ethnic and gender differentials in high blood pressure (HBP), diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), arthritis and asthma among older people in Malaysia, and how these diseases along with other factors affect self-rated health. Differentials in the prevalence of non-communicable diseases among older people are examined in the context of socio-cultural perspectives in multi-ethnic Malaysia. Methods: Data for this paper are obtained from the 2004 Malaysian Population and Family Survey. The survey covered a nationally representative sample of 3,406 persons aged 50 and over, comprising three main ethnic groups (Malays, Chinese and Indians) and all other indigenous groups. Bivariate analyses and hierarchical logistic regression were used in the analyses. Results: Arthritis was the most common non-communicable disease (NCD), followed by HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD. Older females were more likely than males to have arthritis and HBP, but males were more likely to have asthma. Diabetes and CHD were most prevalent among Indians, while arthritis and HBP were most prevalent among the Indigenous groups. Older people were more likely to report poor health if they suffered from NCD, especially CHD. Controlling for socio-economic, health and lifestyle factors, Chinese were least likely to report poor health, whereas Indians and Indigenous people were more likely to do so. Chinese that had HBP were more likely to report poor health compared to other ethnic groups with the same disease. Among those with arthritis, Indians were more likely to report poor health. Conclusion: Perceived health status and prevalence of arthritis, HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD varied widely across ethnic groups. Promotion of healthy lifestyle, early detection and timely intervention of NCDs affecting different ethnic groups and gender with socio-cultural orientations would go a long way in alleviating the debilitating effects of the common NCDs among older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Increasing walking and cycling, and reducing motorised transport, are health and environmental priorities. This paper examines levels and trends in the use of different commute modes in England and Wales, both overall and with respect to small-area deprivation. It also investigates whether commute modal share can serve as a proxy for travel behaviour more generally. Methods: 23.7 million adult commuters reported their usual main mode of travelling to work in the 2011 census in England and Wales; similar data were available for 1971–2001. Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to characterise socio-economic patterning. The National Travel Survey (2002–2010) was used to examine correlations between commute modal share and modal share of total travel time. These correlations were calculated across 150 non-overlapping populations defined by region, year band and income. Results: Among commuters in 2011, 67.1% used private motorised transport as their usual main commute mode (−1.8 percentage-point change since 2001); 17.8% used public transport (+1.8% change); 10.9% walked (−0.1% change); and 3.1% cycled (+0.1% change). Walking and, to a marginal extent, cycling were more common among those from deprived areas, but these gradients had flattened over the previous decade to the point of having essentially disappeared for cycling. In the National Travel Survey, commute modal share and total modal share were reasonably highly correlated for private motorised transport (r = 0.94), public transport (r = 0.96), walking (r = 0.88 excluding London) and cycling (r = 0.77). Conclusions: England and Wales remain car-dependent, but the trends are slightly more encouraging. Unlike many health behaviours, it is more common for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to commute using physically active modes. This association is, however, weakening and may soon reverse for cycling. At a population level, commute modal share provides a reasonable proxy for broader travel patterns, enhancing the value of the census in characterising background trends and evaluating interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A large proportion of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) have unknown treatment outcomes and are classified as lost to follow-up (LTFU). Physical tracing of patients classified as LTFU is common; however, effects of tracing on outcomes remains unclear. The objective of this systematic review is to compare estimates of LTFU, mortality and retention in LMIC in cohorts of patients with and without physical tracing. Methods and Findings: We systematically identified studies in LMIC programmatic settings using MEDLINE (2003–2011) and HIV conference abstracts (2009–2011). Studies reporting the proportion LTFU 12-months after ART initiation were included. Tracing activities were determined from manuscripts or by contacting study authors. Studies were classified as “tracing studies” if physical tracing was available for the majority of patients. Summary estimates from the 2 groups of studies (tracing and non-tracing) for LTFU, mortality, stop of ART, transfers out, and retention on ART were determined. 261 papers and 616 abstracts were identified of which 39 studies comprising 54 separate cohorts (n = 187,666) met inclusion criteria. Of those, physical tracing was available for 46% of cohorts. Treatment programs with physical tracing activities had lower estimated LTFU (7.6% vs. 15.1%; p<.001), higher estimated mortality (10.5% vs. 6.6%; p = .006), higher retention on ART (80.0 vs. 75.8%; p = .04) and higher retention at the original site (80.0% vs. 72.9%; p = .02). Conclusions: Knowledge of patient tracing is critical when interpreting program outcomes of LTFU, mortality and retention. The reduction of the proportion LTFU in tracing studies was only partially explained by re-classification of unknown outcomes. These data suggest that tracing may lead to increased re-engagement of patients in care, rather than just improved classification of unknown outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a performance measure for a prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is insensitive to the addition of strong markers. A number of measures sensitive to performance change have recently been proposed; however, these relative-performance measures may lead to self-contradictory conclusions. This paper examines alternative performance measures for prediction models: the Lorenz curve-based Gini and Pietra indices, and a standardized version of the Brier score, the scaled Brier. Computer simulations are performed in order to study the sensitivity of these measures to performance change when a new marker is added to a baseline model. When the discrimination power of the added marker is concentrated in the gray zone of the baseline model, the AUC and the Gini show minimal performance improvements. The Pietra and the scaled Brier show more significant improvements in the same situation, comparatively. The Pietra and the scaled Brier indices are therefore recommended for prediction model performance measurement, in light of their ease of interpretation, clinical relevance and sensitivity to gray-zone resolving markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data concerning the effects of phthalate exposure on preterm delivery and fetal growth are limited in humans. In this paper, we assessed the relationship between 15 phthalate levels in cord blood and preterm delivery and fetal growth parameters in 207 Chinese women going into labor. Exposure to phthalates except DCHP was associated with gestational age reduction and preterm delivery (p<0.05). There were associations between phthalates and fetal growth parameters, many of which disappeared when analyses were adjusted for gestational age, especially in male infants (Only DEEP was associated with birth weight; DEP, DNHP, BBP, DNP with abdominal circumference; DEP, DBP, DCHP, DEHP with femur length in female infants. And DPP, DBEP was associated with birth length in male infants. p<0.05). This study indicates that prenatal exposure to phthalates is associated with younger gestational age and preterm delivery. Also, phthalate exposure may adversely affect fetal growth parameters via gestational age reduction and preterm delivery with a significant gender effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of the incubation period of infectious diseases (time between host infection and expression of disease symptoms) is crucial to our epidemiological understanding and the design of appropriate prevention and control policies. Plant diseases cause substantial damage to agricultural and arboricultural systems, but there is still very little information about how the incubation period varies within host populations. In this paper, we focus on the incubation period of soilborne plant pathogens, which are difficult to detect as they spread and infect the hosts underground and above-ground symptoms occur considerably later. We conducted experiments on Rhizoctonia solani in sugar beet, as an example patho-system, and used modelling approaches to estimate the incubation period distribution and demonstrate the impact of differing estimations on our epidemiological understanding of plant diseases. We present measurements of the incubation period obtained in field conditions, fit alternative probability models to the data, and show that the incubation period distribution changes with host age. By simulating spatially-explicit epidemiological models with different incubation-period distributions, we study the conditions for a significant time lag between epidemics of cryptic infection and the associated epidemics of symptomatic disease. We examine the sensitivity of this lag to differing distributional assumptions about the incubation period (i.e. exponential versus Gamma). We demonstrate that accurate information about the incubation period distribution of a pathosystem can be critical in assessing the true scale of pathogen invasion behind early disease symptoms in the field; likewise, it can be central to model-based prediction of epidemic risk and evaluation of disease management strategies. Our results highlight that reliance on observation of disease symptoms can cause significant delay in detection of soil-borne pathogen epidemics and mislead practitioners and epidemiologists about the timing, extent, and viability of disease control measures for limiting economic loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No matching vaccine is immediately available when a novel influenza strain breaks out. Several nonvaccine-related strategies must be employed to control an influenza epidemic, including antiviral treatment, patient isolation, and immigration detection. This paper presents the development and application of two regional dynamic models of influenza with Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to determine the optimal control strategies for an epidemic and the corresponding minimum antiviral stockpiles. Antiviral treatment was found to be the most effective measure to control new influenza outbreaks. In the case of inadequate antiviral resources, the preferred approach was the centralized use of antiviral resources in the early stage of the epidemic. Immigration detection was the least cost-effective; however, when used in combination with the other measures, it may play a larger role. The reasonable mix of the three control measures could reduce the number of clinical cases substantially, to achieve the optimal control of new influenza. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the “thought contagion” among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing appropriate risk messages during challenging situations like public health outbreaks is complicated. The focus of this paper is on how First Nations and Metis people in Manitoba, Canada, responded to the public health management of pandemic H1N1, using a focus group methodology (n = 23 focus groups). Focus group conversations explored participant reactions to messaging regarding the identification of H1N1 virus risk groups, the H1N1 vaccine and how priority groups to receive the vaccine were established. To better contextualize the intentions of public health professionals, key informant interviews (n = 20) were conducted with different health decision makers (e.g., public health officials, people responsible for communications, representatives from some First Nations and Metis self-governing organizations). While risk communication practice has improved, ‘one size’ messaging campaigns do not work effectively, particularly when communicating about who is most ‘at-risk’. Public health agencies need to pay more attention to the specific socio-economic, historical and cultural contexts of First Nations and Metis citizens when planning for, communicating and managing responses associated with pandemic outbreaks to better tailor both the messages and delivery. More attention is needed to directly engage First Nations and Metis communities in the development and dissemination of risk messaging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we describe a novel porcine parechovirus-like virus (tentatively named PLV-CHN) from healthy piglets in China using 454 high-throughput sequencing. The complete genome of the virus comprises 6832 bp, encoding a predicted polyprotein of 2132 amino acids that is most similar to Ljungan virus (32% identity). A similar virus that belongs to a novel Picornaviridae genus, named swine pasivirus 1 (SPaV-1), was reported during the preparation of this paper. Sequence analysis revealed that PLV-CHN and SPaV1 shared 82% nucleotide identity and 89% amino acid identity. Further genomic and phylogenetic analyses suggested that both SPaV1 and PLV-CHN shared similar genomic characteristics and belong to the same novel Picornaviridae genus. A total of 36 (20.0%) fecal samples from 180 healthy piglets were positive for PLV-CHN by RT-PCR, while no fecal samples from 100 healthy children and 100 children with diarrhea, and no cerebrospinal fluid samples from 196 children with suspected viral encephalitis, was positive for the virus. However, Western blot and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays using recombinant PLV-CHN VP1 polypeptide as an antigen showed a high seroprevalence of 63.5% in the healthy population. When grouped by age, the antibody-positivity rates showed that the majority of children under 12 years of age have been infected by the virus. It was suggested that PLV-CHN, SPaV1, or an as-yet-uncharacterized virus can infect humans early in life. Thus, investigation of the role of this novel virus is vital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The worldwide spread of a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in 2009 showed that influenza remains a significant health threat, even for individuals in the prime of life. This paper focuses on the unusually high young adult mortality observed during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. Using historical records from Canada and the U.S., we report a peak of mortality at the exact age of 28 during the pandemic and argue that this increased mortality resulted from an early life exposure to influenza during the previous Russian flu pandemic of 1889–90. We posit that in specific instances, development of immunological memory to an influenza virus strain in early life may lead to a dysregulated immune response to antigenically novel strains encountered in later life, thereby increasing the risk of death. Exposure during critical periods of development could also create holes in the T cell repertoire and impair fetal maturation in general, thereby increasing mortality from infectious diseases later in life. Knowledge of the age-pattern of susceptibility to mortality from influenza could improve crisis management during future influenza pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the recently introduced edge-based compartmental models (EBCM) for the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) diseases in networks. These models differ from standard infectious disease models by focusing on the status of a random partner in the population, rather than a random individual. This change in focus leads to simple analytic models for the spread of SIR diseases in random networks with heterogeneous degree. In this paper we extend this approach to handle deviations of the disease or population from the simplistic assumptions of earlier work. We allow the population to have structure due to effects such as demographic features or multiple types of risk behavior. We allow the disease to have more complicated natural history. Although we introduce these modifications in the static network context, it is straightforward to incorporate them into dynamic network models. We also consider serosorting, which requires using dynamic network models. The basic methods we use to derive these generalizations are widely applicable, and so it is straightforward to introduce many other generalizations not considered here. Our goal is twofold: to provide a number of examples generalizing the EBCM method for various different population or disease structures and to provide insight into how to derive such a model under new sets of assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: In this paper from Basu and colleagues, a simulation of tobacco control and pharmacological interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease mortality in India predicted that Smokefree laws and increased tobacco taxation are likely to be the most effective measures to avert future cardiovascular deaths in India. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of network epidemiology's central assumptions is that the contact structure over which infectious diseases propagate can be represented as a static network. However, contacts are highly dynamic, changing at many time scales. In this paper, we investigate conceptually simple methods to construct static graphs for network epidemiology from temporal contact data. We evaluate these methods on empirical and synthetic model data. For almost all our cases, the network representation that captures most relevant information is a so-called exponential-threshold network. In these, each contact contributes with a weight decreasing exponentially with time, and there is an edge between a pair of vertices if the weight between them exceeds a threshold. Networks of aggregated contacts over an optimally chosen time window perform almost as good as the exponential-threshold networks. On the other hand, networks of accumulated contacts over the entire sampling time, and networks of concurrent partnerships, perform worse. We discuss these observations in the context of the temporal and topological structure of the data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Water-associated Disease Index (WADI) was developed to identify and visualize vulnerability to different water-associated diseases by integrating a range of social and biophysical determinants in map format. In this study vulnerability is used to encompass conditions of exposure, susceptibility, and differential coping capacity to a water-associated health hazard. By assessing these conditions, the tool is designed to provide stakeholders with an integrated and long-term understanding of subnational vulnerabilities to water-associated disease and contribute to intervention strategies to reduce the burden of illness. The objective of this paper is to describe and validate the WADI tool by applying it to dengue. A systemic ecohealth framework that considers links between people, the environment and health was applied to identify secondary datasets, populating the index with components including climate conditions, land cover, education status and water use practices. Data were aggregated to create composite indicators of exposure and of susceptibility in a Geographic Information System (GIS). These indicators were weighted by their contribution to dengue vulnerability, and the output consisted of an overall index visualized in map format. The WADI was validated in this Malaysia case study, demonstrating a significant association with dengue rates at a sub-national level, and illustrating a range of factors that drive vulnerability to the disease within the country. The index output indicated high vulnerability to dengue in urban areas, especially in the capital Kuala Lumpur and surrounding region. However, in other regions, vulnerability to dengue varied throughout the year due to the influence of seasonal climate conditions, such as monsoon patterns. The WADI tool complements early warning models for water-associated disease by providing upstream information for planning prevention and control approaches, which increasingly require a comprehensive and geographically broad understanding of vulnerability for implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Physical activity is inversely correlated to morbidity and mortality risk. Large cohort studies use wearable accelerometer devices to measure physical activity objectively, providing data potentially relevant to identify different activity patterns and to correlate these to health-related outcome measures. A method to compute relevant characteristics of such data not only with regard to duration and intensity, but also to regularity of activity events, is necessary. The aims of this paper are to propose a new method – the ATLAS index (Activity Types from Long-term Accelerometric Sensor data) – to derive generic measures for distinguishing different characteristic activity phenotypes from accelerometer data, to propose a comprehensive graphical representation, and to conduct a proof-of-concept with long-term measurements from different devices and cohorts. Methods: The ATLAS index consists of the three dimensions regularity (reg), duration (dur) and intensity (int) of relevant activity events identified in long-term accelerometer data. It can be regarded as a 3D vector and represented in a 3D cube graph. 12 exemplary data sets of three different cohort studies with 99,467 minutes of data were chosen for concept validation. Results: Five archetypical activity types are proposed along with their dimensional characteristics (insufficiently active: low reg, int and dur; busy bee: low dur and int, high reg; cardio-active: medium reg, int and dur, endurance athlete: high reg, int and dur; and weekend warrior: high int and dur, low reg). The data sets are displayed in one common graph, indicating characteristic differences in activity patterns. Conclusion: The ATLAS index incorporates the relevant regularity dimension apart from the widely-used measures of duration and intensity. Along with the 3D representation, it allows to compare different activity types in cohort study populations, both visually and computationally using vector distance measures. Further research is necessary to validate the ATLAS index in order to find normative values and group centroids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is considered a main driver of the worldwide declines and extinctions of amphibian populations. Nonetheless, fundamental questions about its epidemiology, including whether it acts mainly as a “lone killer” or in conjunction with other factors, remain largely open. In this paper we analysed contemporary and historical samples of the endangered Apennine yellow-bellied toad (Bombina pachypus) along the Italian peninsula, in order to assess the presence of the pathogen and its spreading dynamics. Once common throughout its range, B. pachypus started to decline after the mid-1990s in the northern and central regions, whereas no declines have been observed so far in the southern region. We show that Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is currently widespread along the entire peninsula, and that this was already so at least as early as the late 1970s, that is, well before the beginning of the observed declines. This temporal mismatch between pathogen occurrence and host decline, as well as the spatial pattern of the declines, suggests that the pathogen has not acted as a “lone killer”, but in conjunction with other factors. Among the potentially interacting factors, we identified two as the most probable, genetic diversity of host populations and recent climate changes. We discuss the plausibility of this scenario and its implications on the conservation of B. pachypus populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. Methods/Principal Findings: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: syndromic surveillance system has great advantages in promoting the early detection of epidemics and reducing the necessities of disease confirmation, and it is especially effective for surveillance in resource poor settings. However, most current syndromic surveillance systems are established in developed countries, and there are very few reports on the development of an electronic syndromic surveillance system in resource-constrained settings. Objective: this study describes the design and pilot implementation of an electronic surveillance system (ISS) for the early detection of infectious disease epidemics in rural China, complementing the conventional case report surveillance system. Methods: ISS was developed based on an existing platform ‘Crisis Information Sharing Platform’ (CRISP), combining with modern communication and GIS technology. ISS has four interconnected functions: 1) work group and communication group; 2) data source and collection; 3) data visualization; and 4) outbreak detection and alerting. Results: As of Jan. 31st 2012, ISS has been installed and pilot tested for six months in four counties in rural China. 95 health facilities, 14 pharmacies and 24 primary schools participated in the pilot study, entering respectively 74256, 79701, and 2330 daily records into the central database. More than 90% of surveillance units at the study sites are able to send daily information into the system. In the paper, we also presented the pilot data from health facilities in the two counties, which showed the ISS system had the potential to identify the change of disease patterns at the community level. Conclusions: The ISS platform may facilitate the early detection of infectious disease epidemic as it provides near real-time syndromic data collection, interactive visualization, and automated aberration detection. However, several constraints and challenges were encountered during the pilot implementation of ISS in rural China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is currently a major cause of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) in the United States. Seasonal variation of MRSA infections in hospital settings has been widely observed. However, systematic time-series analysis of incidence data is desirable to understand the seasonality of community acquired (CA)-MRSA infections at the population level. In this paper, using data on monthly SSTI incidence in children aged 0–19 years and enrolled in Medicaid in Maricopa County, Arizona, from January 2005 to December 2008, we carried out time-series and nonlinear regression analysis to determine the periodicity, trend, and peak timing in SSTI incidence in children at different age: 0–4 years, 5–9 years, 10–14 years, and 15–19 years. We also assessed the temporal correlation between SSTI incidence and meteorological variables including average temperature and humidity. Our analysis revealed a strong annual seasonal pattern of SSTI incidence with peak occurring in early September. This pattern was consistent across age groups. Moreover, SSTIs followed a significantly increasing trend over the 4-year study period with annual incidence increasing from 3.36% to 5.55% in our pediatric population of approximately 290,000. We also found a significant correlation between the temporal variation in SSTI incidence and mean temperature and specific humidity. Our findings could have potential implications on prevention and control efforts against CA-MRSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A recent genome-wide association study identified STK39as a candidate gene for blood pressure (BP) in Europeans. Subsequently, several studies have attempted to replicate the association across different ethnic populations. However, the results have been inconsistent. Objective and Methods: We performed a meta-analysis to elucidate the association between the STK39 rs3754777 polymorphism (or proxy) and hypertension. Published literature from PubMed and Embase databases were retrieved and pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated using fixed- or random-effects model. Results: Using appropriate inclusion/exclusion criteria, we identified 10 studies that included 21, 863 hypertensive cases and 24, 480 controls from different ethnicities. The meta-analysis showed a significant association of STK39 rs3754777 variant with hypertension (OR = 1.10, 95%CI = 1.06–1.15, p = 7.95×10−6). Further subgroup analysis by ethnicity suggested that the association was significant in Europeans (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.03–1.14, p = 0.002) and in East Asians (OR = 1.16, 95%CI = 1.07–1.25, p = 4.34×10−4), but not in Africans (OR = 1.01, 95%CI 0.80–1.27, p = 0.932). We further confirmed the positive association by sensitivity analysis. No publication bias was detected (Begg’s test, p = 0.721; Egger’s test, p = 0.744). Conclusions: The present meta-analysis confirms the significant association of STK39 polymorphism with susceptibility to hypertension in Europeans and East Asians. Future studies should include gene–gene and gene–environment interactions to investigate the identified association. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent focus on earlier detection of pathogen introduction in human and animal populations has led to the development of surveillance systems based on automated monitoring of health data. Real- or near real-time monitoring of pre-diagnostic data requires automated classification of records into syndromes–syndromic surveillance–using algorithms that incorporate medical knowledge in a reliable and efficient way, while remaining comprehensible to end users. Methods: This paper describes the application of two of machine learning (Naïve Bayes and Decision Trees) and rule-based methods to extract syndromic information from laboratory test requests submitted to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory. Results: High performance (F1-macro = 0.9995) was achieved through the use of a rule-based syndrome classifier, based on rule induction followed by manual modification during the construction phase, which also resulted in clear interpretability of the resulting classification process. An unmodified rule induction algorithm achieved an F1-micro score of 0.979 though this fell to 0.677 when performance for individual classes was averaged in an unweighted manner (F1-macro), due to the fact that the algorithm failed to learn 3 of the 16 classes from the training set. Decision Trees showed equal interpretability to the rule-based approaches, but achieved an F1-micro score of 0.923 (falling to 0.311 when classes are given equal weight). A Naïve Bayes classifier learned all classes and achieved high performance (F1-micro = 0.994 and F1-macro = .955), however the classification process is not transparent to the domain experts. Conclusion: The use of a manually customised rule set allowed for the development of a system for classification of laboratory tests into syndromic groups with very high performance, and high interpretability by the domain experts. Further research is required to develop internal validation rules in order to establish automated methods to update model rules without user input. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of infectious diseases that are spread through direct contact have been proven to depend on the strength of community structure or modularity within the underlying network. It has been recently shown that weighted networks with similar modularity values may exhibit different mixing styles regarding the number of connections among communities and their respective weights. However, the effect of mixing style on epidemic behavior was still unclear. In this paper, we simulate the spread of disease within networks with different mixing styles: a dense-weak style (i.e., many edges among the communities with small weights) and a sparse-strong style (i.e., a few edges among the communities with large weights). Simulation results show that, with the same modularity: 1) the mixing style significantly influences the epidemic size, speed, pattern and immunization strategy; 2) the increase of the number of communities amplifies the effect of the mixing style; 3) when the mixing style changes from sparse-strong to dense-weak, there is a ‘saturation point’, after which the epidemic size and pattern become stable. We also provide a mean-field solution of the epidemic threshold and size on weighted community networks with arbitrary external and internal degree distribution. The solution explains the effect of the second moment of the degree distribution, and a symmetric effect of internal and external connections (incl. degree distribution and weight). Our study has both potential significance for designing more accurate metrics for the community structure and exploring diffusion dynamics on metapopulation networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Graphical representation of data is one of the most easily comprehended forms of explanation. The current study describes a simple visualization tool which may allow greater understanding of medical and epidemiological data. Method: We propose a simple tool for visualization of data, known as a “quilt plot”, that provides an alternative to presenting large volumes of data as frequency tables. Data from the Australian Needle and Syringe Program survey are used to illustrate “quilt plots”. Conclusion: Visualization of large volumes of data using “quilt plots” enhances interpretation of medical and epidemiological data. Such intuitive presentations are particularly useful for the rapid assessment of problems in the data which cannot be readily identified by manual review. We recommend that, where possible, “quilt plots” be used along with traditional quantitative assessments of the data as an explanatory data analysis tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS) appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development and validation and hence better inform future public health policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) gene has been suggested to play an important role in the pathogenesis of cancer. However, the results have been inconsistent. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis to clarify the associations between TCF7L2 polymorphism and cancer risk. Methods: Published literature from PubMed and EMBASE were retrieved. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CIs) were calculated using fixed- or random-effects model. Results: A total of 19 studies (14,814 cases and 33,856 controls) were identified for the analysis of the association between TCF7L2 polymorphism and cancer risk. The results showed that TCF7L2 polymorphism was associated with breast cancer (Homogeneous model: OR = 1.17, 95%CI = 1.02–1.35, I2 = 21.8%, p for heterogeneity = 0.276; Heterogeneous model: OR = 1.11, 95%CI = 1.03–1.20, I2 = 0.0%, p for heterogeneity = 0.543), prostate cancer (Homogeneous model: OR = 0.89, 95%CI = 0.84–0.96, I2 = 0.0%, p for heterogeneity = 0.640; Heterogeneous model: OR = 0.89, 95%CI = 0.84–0.95, I2 = 0.0%, p for heterogeneity = 0.871), and colon cancer (Heterogeneous model: OR = 1.15, 95%CI = 1.01–1.31, I2 = 0.0%, p for heterogeneity = 0.658), but not with colorectal cancer, lung cancer, and ovarian cancer. Conclusions: The present meta-analysis indicated that there were significantly associations between the TCF7L2 rs7903146 polymorphism and risk of breast, prostate and colon cancers, rather than colorectal cancer, lung cancer, and ovarian cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the association of SOX2 expression in tumor with clinicopathological features and survival of non-small-cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) patients. Methods: Publications assessing the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic significance of SOX2 in NSCLC were identified up to May 2013. A meta-analysis of eligible studies was performed using standard statistical methods to clarify the association between SOX2 expression and these clinical parameters. Results: A total of eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Analysis of these data showed that SOX2 expression was positively associated with squamous histology, (pooled OR = 5.26, 95% CI: 1.08–25.6, P = 0.040). Simultaneously, we also found that SOX2 expression was positively associated with overall survival (pooled HR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.47–0.89, P = 0.007, random-effect). Conclusions: SOX2 expression in tumor is a candidate positive prognostic biomarker for NSCLC patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disease control is of paramount importance in public health, with infectious disease extinction as the ultimate goal. Although diseases may go extinct due to random loss of effective contacts where the infection is transmitted to new susceptible individuals, the time to extinction in the absence of control may be prohibitively long. Intervention controls are typically defined on a deterministic schedule. In reality, however, such policies are administered as a random process, while still possessing a mean period. Here, we consider the effect of randomly distributed intervention as disease control on large finite populations. We show explicitly how intervention control, based on mean period and treatment fraction, modulates the average extinction times as a function of population size and rate of infection spread. In particular, our results show an exponential improvement in extinction times even though the controls are implemented using a random Poisson distribution. Finally, we discover those parameter regimes where random treatment yields an exponential improvement in extinction times over the application of strictly periodic intervention. The implication of our results is discussed in light of the availability of limited resources for control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are to predict life years lost associated with obesity-related diseases (ORDs) for U.S. non-smoking adults, and to examine the relationship between those ORDs and mortality. Data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1997–2000, were used. We employed mixed proportional hazard models to estimate the association between those ORDs and mortality and used simulations to project life years lost associated with the ORDs. We found that obesity-attributable comorbidities are associated with large decreases in life years and increases in mortality rates. The life years lost associated with ORDs is more marked for younger adults than older adults, for blacks than whites, for males than females, and for the more obese than the less obese. Using U.S. non-smoking adults aged 40 to 49 years as an example to illustrate percentage of the life years lost associated with ORDs, we found that the mean life years lost associated with ORDs for U.S. non-smoking black males aged 40 to 49 years with a body mass index above 40 kg/m2 was 5.43 years, which translates to a 7.5% reduction in total life years. White males of the same age range and same degree of obesity lost 5.23 life years on average – a 6.8% reduction in total life years, followed by black females (5.04 years, a 6.5% reduction in life years), and white females (4.7 years, a 5.8% reduction in life years). Overall, ORDs increased chances of dying and lessened life years by 0.2 to 11.7 years depending on gender, race, BMI classification, and age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This population-based cohort study has the objective to understand the sociodemographic characteristics and health conditions of patients who do not receive surgery within 18 months following an ambulatory visit to an orthopaedic surgeon. Methods: Administrative healthcare databases in Ontario, Canada were linked to identify all patients making an initial ambulatory visit to orthopaedic surgeons between October 1st, 2004 and September 30th, 2005. Logistic regression was used to examine predictors of not receiving surgery within 18 months. Results: Of the 477,945 patients in the cohort 49% visited orthopaedic surgeons for injury, and 24% for arthritis. Overall, 79.3% did not receive surgery within 18 months of the initial visit, which varied somewhat by diagnosis at first visit (84.5% for injury and 73.0% for arthritis) with highest proportions in the 0–24 and 25–44 age groups. The distribution by income quintile of patients visiting was skewed towards higher incomes. Regression analysis for each diagnostic group showed that younger patients were significantly more likely to be non-surgical than those aged 65+ years (age 0–24: OR 3.45 95%CI 3.33–3.57; age 25–44: OR 1.30 95%CI 1.27–1.33). The odds of not getting surgery were significantly higher for women than men for injury and other conditions; the opposite was true for arthritis and bone conditions. Conclusion: A substantial proportion of referrals were for expert diagnosis or advice on management and treatment. The findings also suggest socioeconomic inequalities in access to orthopaedic care. Further research is needed to investigate whether the high caseload of non-surgical cases affects waiting times to see a surgeon. This paper contributes to the development of evidence-based strategies to streamline access to surgery, and to develop models of care for non-surgical patients to optimize the use of scarce orthopaedic surgeon resources and to enhance the management of musculoskeletal disorders across the care continuum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several approaches have been proposed for near real-time detection and prediction of the spread of influenza. These include search query data for influenza-related terms, which has been explored as a tool for augmenting traditional surveillance methods. In this paper, we present a method that uses Internet search query data from Baidu to model and monitor influenza activity in China. The objectives of the study are to present a comprehensive technique for: (i) keyword selection, (ii) keyword filtering, (iii) index composition and (iv) modeling and detection of influenza activity in China. Sequential time-series for the selected composite keyword index is significantly correlated with Chinese influenza case data. In addition, one-month ahead prediction of influenza cases for the first eight months of 2012 has a mean absolute percent error less than 11%. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the use of search query data from Baidu in conjunction with this approach for estimation of influenza activity in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sacbrood virus (SBV) is a picorna-like virus that affects honey bees (Apis mellifera) and results in the death of the larvae. Several procedures are available to detect Chinese SBV (CSBV) in clinical samples, but not to estimate the level of CSBV infection. The aim of this study was develop an assay for rapid detection and quantification of this virus. Primers and probes were designed that were specific for CSBV structural protein genes. A TaqMan minor groove binder (MGB) probe-based, fluorescence real-time quantitative PCR was established. The specificity, sensitivity and stability of the assay were assessed; specificity was high and there were no cross-reactivity with healthy larvae or other bee viruses. The assay was applied to detect CSBV in 37 clinical samples and its efficiency was compared with clinical diagnosis, electron microscopy observation, and conventional RT-PCR. The TaqMan MGB-based probe fluorescence real-time quantitative PCR for CSBV was more sensitive than other methods tested. This assay was a reliable, fast, and sensitive method that was used successfully to detect CSBV in clinical samples. The technology can provide a useful tool for rapid detection of CSBV. This study has established a useful protocol for CSBV testing, epidemiological investigation, and development of animal models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analysed an 11-year dataset (1998–2009) of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) that was based on surveillance of ∽23% of Israel's population. We examined whether the level of synchrony of ILI epidemics in Israel's 12 largest cities is high enough to view Israel as a single epidemiological unit. Two methods were developed to assess the synchrony: (1) City-specific attack rates were fitted to a simple model in order to estimate the temporal differences in attack rates and spatial differences in reporting rates of ILI. The model showed good fit to the data (R2  =  0.76) and revealed considerable differences in reporting rates of ILI in different cities (up to a factor of 2.2). (2) A statistical test was developed to examine the null hypothesis (H0) that ILI incidence curves in two cities are essentially identical, and was tested using ILI data. Upon examining all possible pairs of incidence curves, 77.4% of pairs were found not to be different (H0 was not rejected). It was concluded that all cities generally have the same attack rate and follow the same epidemic curve each season, although the attack rate changes from season to season, providing strong support for the “Israel is one city” hypothesis. The cities which were the most out of synchronization were Bnei Brak, Beersheba and Haifa, the latter two being geographically remote from all other cities in the dataset and the former geographically very close to several other cities but socially separate due to being populated almost exclusively by ultra-orthodox Jews. Further evidence of assortative mixing of the ultra-orthodox population can be found in the 2001–2002 season, when ultra-orthodox cities and neighborhoods showed distinctly different incidence curves compared to the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Environmental nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are ubiquitous organisms with which humans commonly interact. The epidemiologic characteristics of NTM diseases including mortality rate and its associated factors remain largely unknown. In this study, we explored the geographical area of exposure and mortality and comorbid conditions of affected persons to determine environment, host, and host-pathogen interactive factors. Methods: We analyzed mortality related to nontuberculous mycobacterial infections from 1999 through 2010 by examining multiple-cause-of-death data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Among those who died with these diseases, we analyzed age-adjusted mortality rates, trends, associations with demographic variables, and comorbid conditions and correlated this information with similar data for tuberculosis-related mortality during the same time. Measurements and Mean Results: From 1999 through 2010, nontuberculous mycobacterial disease was reported as an immediate cause of death in 2,990 people in the United States with a combined overall mean age-adjusted mortality rate of 0.1 per 100,000 person-years. A significant increase in the number of NTM related deaths was seen from 1999 through 2010 (R2 = 0.72, p<0.0001), but it was not significant after adjustment for age. Persons aged 55 years and older, women, those living in Hawaii and Louisiana, and those of non-Hispanic, white ethnicity had higher mortality rates. Compared to tuberculosis-related mortality, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, bronchiectasis, HIV, interstitial lung diseases, and tobacco use were significantly more common in persons with nontuberculous mycobacteria-related deaths. Conclusions: Nontuberculous mycobacteria-related death numbers are rising and are unevenly distributed. The strong association of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease with age suggests that its prevalence will increase as the United States population ages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: From 2007 to 2009, the Netherlands experienced a major Q fever epidemic, with higher hospitalization rates than the 2–5% reported in the literature for acute Q fever pneumonia and hepatitis. We describe epidemiological and clinical features of hospitalized acute Q fever patients and compared patients presenting with Q fever pneumonia with patients admitted for other forms of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We also examined whether proximity to infected ruminant farms was a risk factor for hospitalization. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted for all patients diagnosed and hospitalized with acute Q fever between 2007 and 2009 in one general hospital situated in the high incidence area in the south of the Netherlands. Pneumonia severity scores (PSI and CURB-65) of acute Q fever pneumonia patients (defined as infiltrate on a chest x-ray) were compared with data from CAP patients. Hepatitis was defined as a >twofold the reference value for alanine aminotransferase and for bilirubin. Results: Among the 183 hospitalized acute Q fever patients, 86.0% had pneumonia. Elevated liver enzymes (alanine aminotransferase) were found in 32.3% of patients, although hepatitis was not observed in any of them. The most frequent clinical signs upon presentation were fever, cough and dyspnoea. The median duration of admission was five days. Acute Q fever pneumonia patients were younger, had less co-morbidity, and lower PSI and CURB-65 scores than other CAP patients. Anecdotal information from attending physicians suggests that some patients were admitted because of severe subjective dyspnoea, which was not included in the scoring systems. Proximity to an infected ruminant farm was not associated with hospitalization. Conclusion: Hospitalized Dutch acute Q fever patients mostly presented with fever and pneumonia. Patients with acute Q fever pneumonia were hospitalized despite low PSI and CURB-65 scores, presumably because subjective dyspnoea was not included in the scoring systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A possible link between fibromyalgia (FM) and obesity has been recently suggested but very scanty data on the prevalence of FM in obese populations are available. The aims of the present cross-sectional study were: 1) to estimate the prevalence of FM in a population of obese patients undergoing rehabilitation and 2) to investigate the effect of FM on obese patients' functional capacities. One hundred and thirty Italian obese (Body Mass Index, BMI ≥30) patients admitted to hospital for 1-month rehabilitation treatment took part in the study. All participants were interviewed by a rheumatologist according to the 2010 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) diagnostic criteria for FM. At admission and discharge from hospital (on average, after 28 days), the following measures were compared between the group of patients with FM and the other patients: body weight, body mass index, functional independence (FIM), obesity-related disability (TSD-OC), self-reported functioning and the Timed-Up-Go (TUG) test. Thirty seven patients out of 130 fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for FM. The prevalence rate was 27.7% (95% CI: 20 to 35.4). Between-group comparisons showed that FM patients had higher disability level at the first assessment, had lower scores on the FIM at the final assessment, scored lower on self-reported functioning both at the first and the final assessments and had a lower body weight. The prevalence of FM in our study is much higher than the rates reported in the general normal-weight population (on average, 3.5%) and the 5.15% rate previously reported in a bariatric population. Functional data showed that the FM obese group yielded lower performance capacity and higher disability level as compared to the non-FM obese group. However, due to the relatively small sample size and the selected population, such results need to be confirmed in larger obese subpopulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although male circumcision (MC) is recommended as an HIV prevention option, the religious, cultural and biomedical dimensions of its feasibility, acceptability and practice in India have not been explored till date. This study explores beliefs, experiences and understanding of the community and healthcare providers (HCPs) about adult MC as an HIV prevention option in India. Methods: This qualitative study covered 134 in-depth interviews from Belgaum, Kolkata, Meerut and Mumbai cities of India. Of these, 62 respondents were the members of circumcising (CC)/non-circumcising communities (NCC); including medically and traditionally circumcised men, parents of circumcised children, spouses of circumcised men, and religious clerics. Additionally, 58 registered healthcare providers (RHCPs) such as general and pediatric surgeons, pediatricians, skin and venereal disease specialists, general practitioners, and operation theatre nurses were interviewed. Fourteen traditional circumcisers were also interviewed. The data were coded and analyzed in QSR NUD*IST ver. 6.0. The study has not explored the participants' views about neonatal versus adult circumcision. Results: Members of CC/NCC, traditional circumcisers and RCHPs expressed sharp religious sensitivities around the issue of MC. Six themes emerged: Male circumcision as the religious rite; Multiple meanings of MC: MC for ‘religious identity/privilege/sacrifice’ or ‘hygiene’; MC inflicts pain and cost; Medical indications outweigh faith; Hesitation exists in accepting ‘foreign’ evidence supporting MC; and communication is the key for acceptance of MCs. Medical indications could make members of NCC accept MC following appropriate counseling. Majority of the RHCPs demanded local in-country evidence. Conclusion: HCPs must educate high-risk groups regarding the preventive and therapeutic role of MC. Communities need to discuss and create new social norms about male circumcision for better societal acceptance especially among the NCC. Feasibility studies on MC as an individual specific option for the high risk groups in health care setting needs to be explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genotyping of Klebsiella pneumoniae is indispensable for management of nosocomial infections, monitoring of emerging strains –including extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) producers-, and general epidemiology. Such objectives require a high-resolution genotyping method with a fixed scheme that allows (1) long-term retrospective and prospective assessment, (2) objective result readout and (3) library storage for database development and exchangeable results. We have developed a multiple-locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) using a single-tube fluorescently primed multiplex PCR for 8 Variable Number Tandem Repeats (VNTRs) and automated fragment size analysis. The type allocation scheme was optimized using 224 K. pneumoniae clinical isolates, which yielded 101 MLVA types. The method was compared to the gold standard multilocus sequence typing (MLST) using a subset of these clinical isolates (n = 95) and found to be highly concordant, with at least as high a resolution but with considerably less hands-on time. Our results position this MLVA scheme as an appropriate, high-throughput and relatively low-cost tool for K. pneumoniae epidemiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fever, Thrombocytopenia and Leukopenia Syndrome (FTLS) is caused by a bunyavirus known as the FTLS virus (FTLSV), which was recently discovered in China. We examined the epidemiological and etiological features of 637 laboratory-confirmed cases of FTLS with onset from January 2011 to December 2012 in Henan Province, China. The highest incidence of FTLS occurred between May and August: 76.5% of all laboratory-confirmed cases occurred during those four months. Of the laboratory-confirmed cases, 60.9% were in the 46–69 years old age groups; 96.1% (612/637) occurred in farmers; 98.1% (625/637) were reported from Xinyang Prefecture. During the same time period, 2047 cases were reported in China. The nucleotide and amino acid sequences of FTLSV strains identified during 2011–2012 in Henan Province were ≥96% identical. This findings provides insight for developing public-health interventions for the control and prevention of FTLS in epidemic area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chagas disease caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi is an important public health problem in Latin America. The immunological mechanisms involved in Chagas disease pathogenesis remain incompletely elucidated. The aim of this study was to explore cytokine profiles and their possible association to the infecting DTU and the pathogenesis of Chagas disease. Methods: 109 sero-positive T. cruzi patients and 21 negative controls from Bolivia and Colombia, were included. Flow cytometry assays for 13 cytokines were conducted on human sera. Patients were divided into two groups: in one we compared the quantification of cytokines between patients with and without chronic cardiomyopathy; in second group we compared the levels of cytokines and the genetic variability of T. cruzi. Results: Significant difference in anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory cytokines profiles was observed between the two groups cardiac and non-cardiac. Moreover, serum levels of IFN-γ, IL-12, IL-22 and IL-10 presented an association with the genetic variability of T.cruzi, with significant differences in TcI and mixed infections TcI/TcII. Conclusion: Expression of anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory cytokines may play a relevant role in determining the clinical presentation of chronic patients with Chagas disease and suggests the occurrence of specific immune responses, probably associated to different T. cruzi DTUs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We investigated the relationship between average monthly temperature and the most common clinical pathogens causing infections in intensive care patients. Methods: A prospective unit-based study in 73 German intensive care units located in 41 different hospitals and 31 different cities with total 188,949 pathogen isolates (102,377 Gram-positives and 86,572 Gram-negatives) from 2001 to 2012. We estimated the relationship between the number of clinical pathogens per month and the average temperature in the month of isolation and in the month prior to isolation while adjusting for confounders and long-term trends using time series analysis. Adjusted incidence rate ratios for temperature parameters were estimated based on generalized estimating equation models which account for clustering effects. Results: The incidence density of Gram-negative pathogens was 15% (IRR 1.15, 95%CI 1.10–1.21) higher at temperatures ≥20°C than at temperatures below 5°C. E. cloacae occurred 43% (IRR = 1.43; 95%CI 1.31–1.56) more frequently at high temperatures, A. baumannii 37% (IRR = 1.37; 95%CI 1.11–1.69), S. maltophilia 32% (IRR = 1.32; 95%CI 1.12–1.57), K. pneumoniae 26% (IRR = 1.26; 95%CI 1.13–1.39), Citrobacter spp. 19% (IRR = 1.19; 95%CI 0.99–1.44) and coagulase-negative staphylococci 13% (IRR = 1.13; 95%CI 1.04–1.22). By contrast, S. pneumoniae 35% (IRR = 0.65; 95%CI 0.50–0.84) less frequently isolated at high temperatures. For each 5°C increase, we observed a 3% (IRR = 1.03; 95%CI 1.02–1.04) increase of Gram-negative pathogens. This increase was highest for A. baumannii with 8% (IRR = 1.08; 95%CI 1.05–1.12) followed by K. pneumoniae, Citrobacter spp. and E. cloacae with 7%. Conclusion: Clinical pathogens vary by incidence density with temperature. Significant higher incidence densities of Gram-negative pathogens were observed during summer whereas S. pneumoniae peaked in winter. There is increasing evidence that different seasonality due to physiologic changes underlies host susceptibility to different bacterial pathogens. Even if the underlying mechanisms are not yet clear, the temperature-dependent seasonality of pathogens has implications for infection control and study design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic performance of ECG-gated non-contrast-enhanced quiescent interval single-shot (QISS) magnetic resonance angiography at a magnetic field strength of 3 Tesla in patients with advanced peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD). Method and Materials: A total of 21 consecutive patients with advanced PAOD (Fontaine stage IIb and higher) referred for peripheral magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) were included. Imaging was performed on a 3 T whole body MR. Image quality and stenosis diameter were evaluated in comparison to contrast-enhanced continuous table and TWIST MRA (CE-MRA) as standard of reference. QISS images were acquired with a thickness of 1.5 mm each (high-resolution QISS, HR-QISS). Two blinded readers rated the image quality and the degree of stenosis for both HR-QISS and CE-MRA in 26 predefined arterial vessel segments on 5-point Likert scales. Results: With CE-MRA as the reference standard, HR-QISS showed high sensitivity (94.1%), specificity (97.8%), positive (95.1%), and negative predictive value (97.2%) for the detection of significant (≥50%) stenosis. Interreader agreement for stenosis assessment of both HR-QISS and CE-MRA was excellent (κ-values of 0.951 and 0.962, respectively). As compared to CR-MRA, image quality of HR-QISS was significantly lower for the distal aorta, the femoral and iliac arteries (each with p<0.01), while no significant difference was found in the popliteal (p = 0.09) and lower leg arteries (p = 0.78). Conclusion: Non-enhanced ECG-gated HR-QISS performs very well in subjects with severe PAOD and is a good alternative for patients with a high risk of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes chronic kidney disease (CKD) guidelines recommend that CKD be classified based on the etiology, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and degree of albuminuria. The present study aimed to establish a method that predicts the presence of microalbuminuria by measuring the total urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (TPCR) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Methods and Results: We obtained urine samples from 1,033 patients who visited the cardiovascular clinic at St. Luke's International Hospital from February 2012 to August 2012. We measured the TPCR and the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) from random spot urine samples. We performed correlation, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, and subgroup analyses. There was a strong positive correlation between the TPCR and ACR (R2 = 0.861, p<0.001). A ROC curve analysis for the TPCR revealed a sensitivity of 94.4%, a specificity of 86.1%, and an area under the curve of 0.903 for detecting microalbuminuria for a TPCR cut-off value of 84 mg/g of creatinine. The subgroup analysis indicated that the cut-off value could be used for patients with CVD risk factors. Conclusions: These results suggest that the TPCR with an appropriate cut-off value could be used to screen for the presence of microalbuminuria in patients with CVD risk factors. This simple, inexpensive measurement has broader applications, leading to earlier intervention and public benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Very little is known about the growth and mutation rates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis during latent infection in humans. However, studies in rhesus macaques have suggested that latent infections have mutation rates that are higher than that observed during active tuberculosis disease. Elevated mutation rates are presumed risk factors for the development of drug resistance. Therefore, the investigation of mutation rates during human latency is of high importance. We performed whole genome mutation analysis of M. tuberculosis isolates from a multi-decade tuberculosis outbreak of the New Zealand Rangipo strain. We used epidemiological and phylogenetic analysis to identify four cases of tuberculosis acquired from the same index case. Two of the tuberculosis cases occurred within two years of exposure and were classified as recently transmitted tuberculosis. Two other cases occurred more than 20 years after exposure and were classified as reactivation of latent M. tuberculosis infections. Mutation rates were compared between the two recently transmitted pairs versus the two latent pairs. Mean mutation rates assuming 20 hour generation times were 5.5X10−10 mutations/bp/generation for recently transmitted tuberculosis and 7.3X10−11 mutations/bp/generation for latent tuberculosis. Generation time versus mutation rate curves were also significantly higher for recently transmitted tuberculosis across all replication rates (p = 0.006). Assuming identical replication and mutation rates among all isolates in the final two years before disease reactivation, the u20hr mutation rate attributable to the remaining latent period was 1.6×10−11 mutations/bp/generation, or approximately 30 fold less than that calculated during the two years immediately before disease. Mutations attributable to oxidative stress as might be caused by bacterial exposure to the host immune system were not increased in latent infections. In conclusion, we did not find any evidence to suggest elevated mutation rates during tuberculosis latency in humans, unlike the situation in rhesus macaques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable and valid biomarkers of ageing (BoA) are needed to understand mechanisms, test interventions and predict the timing of adverse health events associated with ageing. Since increased reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and mitochondrial dysfunction are consequences of cellular senescence and may contribute causally to the ageing of organisms, we focused on these parameters as candidate BoA. Superoxide levels, mitochondrial mass and mitochondrial membrane potential in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and subpopulations (lymphocytes and monocytes) were measured in participants from the Newcastle 85+ study, a population-based study of the very old (aged 85 years and older). The intra- and inter-assay precision expressed as coefficient of variation (CV) for all parameters was acceptable (3% to 12% and 5 to 22% respectively). All parameters were stable in the short-term (1 week interval) in a sample of control individuals in the PBMCs and lymphocyte subpopulation, however they were unstable in the monocyte subpopulation; this rendered monocytes unreliable for further analysis. There was a significant association between superoxide levels and mitochondrial mass (positive in lymphocytes, p = 0.01) and between superoxide levels and mitochondrial membrane potential (negative in PBMCs, p = 0.01; positive in lymphocytes, p = 0.05). There were also significant associations between superoxide levels and mitochondrial parameters with other markers of oxidative stress-induced cellular senescence (p≤0.04), however some were in the opposite direction to expected. No associations were found between the measured parameters and age-related outcomes, including cognitive impairment, disability, co-morbidity and survival - questioning the validity of these parameters as candidate BoA in the very old. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]