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Copyright of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches / İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Between 1789 and 1803 the National Debt Office issued unbacked interest bearing notes whereas the Bank of Sweden issued silver backed notes. The massive note issuance by the National Debt Office led to different exchange rates and two units of account. The situation gave rise to an early paper standard theory formulated by Anders Wappengren, a well-read merchant who was strongly influenced by Adam Smith and the French physiocrats. Wappengren had a firm understanding of monetary systems and the adjustment mechanism under floating exchange rates, including such concepts as purchasing power parity and price stickiness. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

To improve phosphorus (P) fertilization and environmental assessments, a better understanding of release kinetics of solid‐phase P to soil solution is needed. In this study, Fe (hydr)oxide‐coated filter papers (Fh papers), isotopic exchange kinetics (IEK) and chemical extractions were used to assess the sizes of fast and slowly desorbing P pools in the soils of six long‐term Swedish field experiments. The P desorption data from the Fh‐paper extraction of soil (20 days of continual P removal) were fitted with the Lookman two‐compartment desorption model, which estimates the pools of fast (Q1) and slowly (Q2) desorbing P, and their desorption rates k1 and k2. The amounts of isotope‐exchangeable P (E) were calculated (E1min to E>3 months) and compared with Q1 and Q2. The strongest relationship was found between E1 min and Q1 (r2 =.87, p <.01). There was also an inverse relationship between the IEK parameter n (the rate of exchange) and k1 (r2 =.52, p <.01) and k2 (r2 =.52, p <.01), suggesting that a soil with a high value of n desorbs less P per time unit. The relationships between these results show that they deliver similar information, but both methods are hard to implement in routine analysis. However, Olsen‐extractable P was similar in magnitude to Q1 (P‐Olsen = 1.1 × Q1 + 2.3, r2 =.96), n and k1 were related to P‐Olsen/P‐CaCl2, while k2 was related to P‐oxalate/P‐Olsen. Therefore, these extractions can be used to estimate the sizes and desorption rates of the different P pools, which could be important for assessments of plant availability and leaching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the fourth paper in the series of analyses of times of minimum and period variations in W UMa eclipsing binaries, and the implications for mass exchange in these systems. In this paper, the systems discussed in Papers 1–3 for which analyses are relatively complete are sorted into three sections, arranged in order of degree of confidence that mass exchange occurrence is established and that the present rate of exchange has been determined. The higher-confidence systems are: 44 Boo, RZ Cam, VW LMi, AU Ser; the intermediate-confidence systems are: TY Boo, V1191 Cyg, AP Leo, ER Ori; and the lower-confidence systems are: AB And, XY Boo, AC Boo, AH Cnc, VW Cep, EZ Hya, XY Leo, W UMa, and GR Vir. A fourth section describes promising cases that require additional data and/or analyses. For the higher-confidence systems, selected analyses of the times of minimum and of the most comprehensive light curve (LC) and radial velocity (RV) suites of data have yielded mean mass changes to the more massive component of dM 1 /dt = +2.37 (13) × 10−7 M ʘ /y for 44 Boo, +4.00 (14) × 10−8 M ʘ /y for RZ Com, +2.53 (7) × 10−7 M ʘ /y for VW LMi, and -1.98 (11) × 10−7 M ʘ /y for AU Ser. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Archival boxes are used as a preventive measure to control the microenvironment in museums and archives storages. However, their efficiency in protecting valuable artefacts from fluctuations in relative humidity (RH) is not yet fully understood. In this study, the environmental performance of different archival boxes with different configurations (size, design, presence of holes/paper material, cardboard types, surface modification) was included in the evaluation of internal environment (RH). The effectiveness of archival boxes on reducing relative humidity fluctuations was investigated by testing various properties of boxes and boards, such as air exchange rates (AER), moisture sorption and water vapour transmission rates (WVTR). While most cardboard boxes showed only a limited buffering against the humidity ingress, strategies such as surface modification limited the interaction of a box with the external environment, resulting in a more stable internal environment. Material and box properties, such as moisture sorption, AER and WVTR proved to be useful quantitative tools for assessing the environmental performance of the selected archival boxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of the provisions of legal metrology on the formation and functioning of the monetary environment in the market is studied. It is shown that the use of tangible (reference) measures for determining the value of goods and monetary units makes it possible to form a stable monetary system, equal for all market participants. This system can reasonably be attributed to information measuring systems. Systems based on the use of constant tangible measures that determine the value of goods and money have been formed and functioned in international trade for a long time. In the XIX–XX centuries, the monetary system, in which a fixed weight of gold served as the tangible measure of money, was called the "gold standard." In the 1970s, this system was abandoned without objective reasons. Nowadays, many people believe that the main reason is the uncontrolled issuance of paper money (US dollars). As a result, the tangible measure of money was replaced by a monetary measure. The money of a number of chosen countries turned out to be a measure of the national currencies of other countries. Then money was made a commodity – an object of market trade, the price of which is determined by supply and demand. Thus, the most important principle of metrology, i.e., the invariability (constancy) of the measure of system objects, was violated. The resulting monetary system became unstable. This situation has led to an increase in the number of proposals for a return to the gold standard. The analysis carried out in the paper confirmed the relevance of these proposals. At the present stage of metrology development, it is advisable to explore the possibility of a broader (not only at the expense of precious metals) resource provision of tangible monetary measures, in particular, to consider the possibility of using materials and (or) goods that are in high demand in the international market as monetary measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 18th century, a fierce political debate broke out in Sweden about the causes of an extraordinary depreciation of the currency. More specifically, the deteriorating value of the Swedish currency was blamed arbitrarily on monetary causes (e.g., the overissuing of banknotes) and on non‐monetary causes (such as balance‐of‐payments deficits). This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of this so‐called "Swedish Bullionist Controversy". The results of vector autoregressions suggest that increasing amounts of paper money did give rise to inflation and a depreciation of the exchange rate. Conversely, non‐monetary factors were probably less important for these developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1912 Guillermo Subercaseaux (1872–1959), a professor of economics at the University of Chile, published El Papel Moneda, translated into French in 1920 as Le Papier-Monnaie. The paper provides a full treatment of Subercaseaux’s interpretation of the working of paper-money economies, including his approach to the determination of the exchange rate of depreciated currencies and his views about the problem posed by the existence of a positive value of inconvertible paper money. We investigate how his framework was related to classic contributions by Adolph Wagner (1868), Carlo Ferraris (1879), and Wesley C. Mitchell (1903, 1908). We also deal with the background formed by the South American debates between ‘papeleros’ and ‘oreros’ (paper-money and gold-standard supporters) at the time. The paper offers an investigation of an aspect of the international transmission of economic ideas, this time from the periphery to the center. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Exchange rate policy is regarded as a critical macroeconomic policy. Especially the misalignment of exchange rates is significantly impact on imported goods, particularly oil imports, which ultimately effect external and internal imbalances. This study conducts a systematic literature review on exchange rate misalignment, as well as an intriguing content analysis of the top 100 most cited articles. Further it identifies the most influential authors, papers and the journals in the field using citation analysis. The relevant articles are identified using the Scopus database. Three hundred and seventy‐two scholarly papers have been found relevant. The results of the content analysis show that the purchasing power parity is the most frequently used theoretical foundation, followed by the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate. Additionally, the analysis reveals that the authors primarily utilised time series data. The identification of essential and core journals is made through Bradford's Law. Schuh (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 56, 1974, 1) is a pioneering study that discussed the misalignment of exchange rates in the US agriculture sector. Valérie Mignon is the most prolific author in terms of both productivity and impact. The paper authored by O'Connell (Journal of International Economics, 44, 1998, 1) titled 'overvaluation of purchasing power parity', is recognised as the most influential paper in terms of average citations per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several research efforts were dedicated to analysing the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment in the host economies. The variations in the conclusions signal that other variables influence and moderate the effects of FDI on GDP and employment. Institutional elements receive limited research attention, despite their influence on the host economies. This paper investigates the moderating role of institutional elements in the FDI-host economies on FDI’s effects on GDP and employment with China and India as case studies. The approach utilises three principal methodologies. The first methodology presents an in-depth analysis of China and India, highlighting selected institutional elements with the potential to influence FDI’s effects. The second methodology confirms the presence of a positive correlation between FDI and GDP and a negative correlation between FDI and employment-to-population ratio (EPR) in both China and India. The FDI, GDP purchasing power parity per capita, and EPR datasets are extracted from the World Bank – DataBank World Development Indicators to ensure the consistency of the data. The results of the quantitative analysis validate the qualitative analysis. The qualitative analysis confirms the moderating role of the selected institutional elements with variations in direction and strength. Significant variations in FDI’s effects on GDP and employment are strongly related to variations in the institutions of governance. The institutions of governance include the functionality of the state organs, the efficiency of the legal system and enforcement of the rule of law, and the quality of implementation of FDI-supportive policies. The findings aim to increase the absorption of the positive effects of FDI on GDP and employment in the respective countries. The research is a cornerstone of in-depth future research into the following areas: the role of selective FDI and constructive conditional FDI policies, the functionality of judicial authority controls, and FDI favourable exchange rates and interest rates policies. The novelty and contribution of the paper lie in its comprehensive exploration of the moderating role of institutional elements on the effects of FDI on GDP and employment in host economies, with a specific focus on China and India. The paper contributes significantly to the academic literature on FDI and economic development by emphasising the importance of institutional factors and providing actionable insights for policymakers and researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper examines the reaction of the Egyptian stock market to two substantial devaluations of the Egyptian pound (EGP) in 2022 and tests the informational efficiency of the Egyptian market. Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses the event study framework to analyze the significance and direction of abnormal returns of the leading index of the Egyptian stock market (EGX30) on and around the devaluation days. It employs both the constant mean model and the market model to estimate the normal returns of the EGX30. Additionally, the paper uses data on two equity indices, one global and one for emerging markets, as benchmarks for normal returns. Findings: The paper finds that the Egyptian stock market experienced significant positive abnormal returns on the devaluation days of the EGP in March and October of 2022, indicating a positive market reaction to the devaluation. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the Egyptian market may not be informationally efficient as significant positive abnormal returns were observed two weeks before and two weeks after the devaluation day, suggesting news leaks and delayed reactions, respectively. Originality/value: This study is the first to examine the impact of the recent two devaluations of the EGP in 2022 on the Egyptian stock market. It complements existing literature by analyzing the immediate market reaction to two consecutive devaluations in an African country. Furthermore, the paper evaluates the efficiency of the Egyptian market in processing information related to exchange rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the mechanisms and processes of international trade under inconvertible paper as the basis of the monetary system. The article examines the mechanisms of international trade as well as the nature of relationships prevailing between international trade and other domestic phenomena such as domestic prices and foreign exchange rate. The international trade between an inconvertible paper and gold standard country is also tackled. There is also a discussion that centers around the purchasing-power parity doctrine.

Price-taking behavior is the bedrock of much market theory. How might such behavior emerge? Addressing that old but still intriguing question, this paper uses a money commodity to denominate all rates of exchange and substitution. Out of equilibrium, some rates differ between agents, thereby driving trade. The simplest form of trade is bilateral; it needs no broker, center or supervisor. Yet, under broad conditions, that elementary institution can take the economy to competitive equilibrium. Proving convergence, this paper invokes minimal hypotheses as to agents' behaviors, competences and deals. Moreover, agents may make boundary choices, appreciate relatively few commodities, choose within general domains and deploy non-smooth preferences. Convex analysis provides the chief tool kit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Based on the matched data of China's tax survey and customs from 2007 to 2011, this paper studies the differential impact of exchange rate changes on the performance of companies by region from the perspective of factor market distortion. The results show that for import companies, the RMB appreciation significantly contributes to improving their performance and this phenomenon is more pronounced in areas with high factor market distortions. Channel tests show that the proportion of intermediate goods imported by final producers increases with regional factor market distortions. Therefore, the appreciation of the national currency is more favorable for areas with high factor market distortions (companies with high proportion of imported intermediate goods). In addition, the appreciation of the national currency will promote the production of China's upstream intermediate goods producers by expanding the output of downstream enterprises. This paper complements previous studies on the differential impact of RMB exchange rate changes on regional economic growth from a micro perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation for a small open economy, namely South Africa, over the period 1970Q1–2020Q1. Design/methodology/approach: A threshold vector autoregressive model that allows parameters to switch according to whether a threshold variable crosses an estimated threshold is employed to address the objective of this paper. The threshold value is determined endogenously using the Hansen (1996) test. Generalized impulse responses introduced by Koop et al. (1996) are used to study the effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation depending on their size, sign and timing to the inflation cycle. The authors also employed a Cholesky decomposition identification scheme to identify exchange rate shocks in the non-linear model. Findings: The results show that there is a non-linearity effect of the exchange rate shock on inflation. In particular, the effects of 1 or 2 standard deviations of positive (appreciation) or negative (depreciation) exchange rate shock on inflation are small in the long run but a bit larger in the high inflation regime than the low inflation regime. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the literature on the non-linear effects of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation for Sub-Saharan African economies in general and the South African economy in particular by incorporating the size and timing of the exchange rate shocks to the inflation cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Islam allowed the selling transaction and prohibited the interest rate. So, can an economy function properly and efficiently without an interest rate? In a conventional economy the interest rate is used as a tool to stimulate investment, savings, money supply, exchange rate, and other economic variables. Thus, the concept of an interest rate is deeply embedded, and plays a vital role in an economy. It is not easy to remove this concept from an economy. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that an economy can function properly without the use of an interest rate by looking at the Palestinian economy. The Palestinian economy is a small, open, and semi-independent on the Israeli economy; it is thus unique in nature, where it is an economy that has no local currency. Palestinians use the New Israeli Shekel, US Dollar, Jordanian Dinar, and Euro. So, the Palestine Monetary Authority (PMA) place the role of monitoring the function of the banks, rather than the role of a Central Bank. This is of course due to the absence of a local currency. Therefore, the Palestinian Government has no monetary policy, i.e., monetary policy does not exist in the Palestinian economy. In addition, the concept of an interest rate to an individual Palestinian can be replaced by the concept of profit sharing. That is, a Palestinian can be driven by the concept of profit sharing rather than the concept of an interest rate. This paper concludes by using an empirical example that an economy can function without an interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper displays the monthly and yearly currency exchange inflation of the Cuban Peso (CUP) in the national black market since the appearance of the Ordenamiento policy. Being served by ElToque's advanced algorithm coverage on more than 150 online marketplaces, the public historical data on the value of the CUP is converted into monthly and yearly data on exchange rate inflation. The paper, moreover, aims to discuss the Central Bank's matching of exchange rate data with factual popular behavior in contrast with the findings on the black market, which effectively proved abrupt differences. Thus, the blackmarket data insights represent key information while further research is being conducted on the Cuban economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper delves into the intricate interplay between idiosyncratic shocks, network connections among economic agents, and the ensuing implications for international trade dynamics. Drawing upon economic theory and empirical evidence, it scrutinizes how localized supply shocks, such as those induced by natural disasters, reverberate through global trade networks. Two models are deployed to elucidate the relationships between exogenous shocks and fluctuations in international trade, offering insights into the mechanisms through which shocks propagate or dissipate. By examining the distribution of suppliers and the network structures of various goods, the paper uncovers nuances in the transmission of shocks and their impact on aggregate outcomes. Moreover, it explores the evolving role of countries within the global trade network, particularly in the context of energy trade. The findings underscore the significance of network analysis in understanding the resilience of international trade amidst disruptions and underscore the policy implications for trade and exchange rate strategies. Future avenues for research are also delineated, emphasizing the need for deeper investigations into the dynamics of trade networks and policy responses to shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of exchange rate changes on India's trade. The drivers of exports and imports (income, exchange rate including sectoral differences, and exchange rate variability) are estimated for the short and long run including a structural break. Using annual data from 1994 to 2022, the results of dynamic fixed effects estimation show that both exports and imports are income-elastic in the short and long run, but income elasticity is far stronger for exports. Moreover, exports are responsive to the real effective exchange rate in the short run but not in the long run, and the reverse is true for imports. Furthermore, exchange rates have asymmetric effects for high-volume and primary sectors for exports and imports. The combined impacts show the ineffectiveness of using currency depreciation to address trade imbalances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Documents evidence supporting fiscal and monetary models of exchange rates for the Canadian dollar, deutschemark, yen and pound in the 1974-1993 period. Productivity and government spending; Behavior of exchange rates; Behavior of key relative price in open economy; Power of competing fiscal and monetary approaches to exchange rate determination.

Academic research has been completed on various historical economic crises, mostly in isolation, with some researchers attempting to make a comparison to prior crises. This paper focuses on identifying crisis indicators based on historical analysis of pre-crisis conditions, both in the country with the highest disparity based on the Gini coefficient (South Africa) and the country with the highest concentration of wealth (the United States). A systematic literature review was performed, and a total of 37 unique identifiers were found from 16 papers selected for inclusion. A systematic literature review is an appraisal and synthesis of primary research papers using a rigorous and clearly documented methodology in both the search strategy and the selection of studies. While common in medical research, the systematic review, a rigorous and thorough approach, is rarely used in finance and economics, with this paper representing one of few such reviews that have been published. The indicators that were found to be common amongst the crises studies were Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Interest Rates, Foreign Currency Exchange Rates, Assets Prices, Current Account Balance, and National debt. These six indicators were found in at least 25% of the papers included, with GDP cited in 50% of papers reviewed. This body of work compiles a list of indicators that can be used to improve the current Early Warning Indicators used by economists to predict financial crises, as it compiles commonalities from 80 years of crises, rather than examining a single crisis in isolation. Finally, additional literature was found to support the application of crisis indicators from developed and developing nations to predict the next crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper augments a model developed for the government spending for a closed economy by introducing foreign loans, foreign reserves and exchange rates, which are of vital importance for budgeting in an open economy. It suggests that government expenditures are a function of taxes, domestic debt, foreign debt in domestic currency, foreign reserve in domestic currency, high-powered money, and real interest paid on domestic and foreign debt. All factors are found to have a positive impact on government expenditures in mathematical modelling, except for foreign reserves interest payments on domestic and foreign debt, which have a negative impact on the expenditures. The model is estimated by employing yearly data from 1976 to 2020 for Pakistan's economy and incorporating the impact of change in the exchange rate regime on government expenditures. The model, estimated with the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, suggests that current government expenditures depend on the current and previous period taxes, current domestic loans, current and earlier periods of foreign debt, current high-powered money, and foreign reserves. In addition, the empirical findings indicate that around 55 per cent of government expenditures have been financed through tax revenues, 21 per cent through high-powered money and 17 per cent through government bonds. The paper applies a dummy variable to measure the impact of the change in the exchange rate regime in 1999; it suggests that the change has positively impacted government expenditures. This paper concludes that the government has been preferring printing money and foreign loans, after taxes, for financing expenditures in Pakistan. At the policy level, the paper recommends that the government needs to rationalise the financing of its expenditures by focusing more on taxes. Further, it needs to avoid tapping foreign reserves held by the private sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country's GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth. This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth. The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data on the RMB exchange rate, and the added value of China's high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data. An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted, finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China's high-quality economic growth; RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations, thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth. This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad, providing additional observation dimensions to existing research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the findings of the 2015 White Paper which focuses on the economy of Japan along with its earning, export, and attracting powers. Topics include the decline in the country's service deficit, the relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and export volume, and explanatory variables that describe the country's exchange rate such as high added value, export demand, and production capacity.

The paper studies the evolving dynamics in cross-border capital flows, with an emphasis on the emerging market economies (EMEs) covering a timeline of three decades (Q1:1992-Q1:2022). In view of the persistent volatility in capital flows to EMEs, the paper examines major episodes of capital flow reversals, in particular sudden stops. The empirical analysis suggests that global factors – global growth, risk, liquidity, long-term interest rates, policy rate changes – along with domestic growth and nominal exchange rate dynamics are key drivers of capital flow reversal episodes in the EMEs. The appropriate utilisation of capital flow management measures (CFMs) and macroprudential policy measures (MPMs), along with a strengthening of domestic macroeconomic and financial fundamentals and adequate buffers in the form of foreign exchange reserves, can help the EMEs navigate the ebbs and surges in capital flows better, while preserving macroeconomic and financial stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper first describes the Bretton Woods system: its origin, what it was meant to achieve, and why it collapsed. We then describe the emergence of the global non-system in which inflation targeting has replaced full-employment Keynesianism and floating exchange rates have replaced the Bretton Woods set-up of fixed but adjustable exchange rates. We describe how the Bretton Woods system set about achieving the three objectives laid down for a well-functioning international economic system by John Maynard Keynes: full employment without inflation, sustainable current account balances between countries, and a sustainable flow of international financial capital—on the understanding that an open trading regime is also fostered. Because the global non-system is now very different from the Bretton Woods system, Keynes's objectives now need to be achieved in a very different manner. Looking forward, this non-system faces a number of longer-term challenges. Important adjustment issues will arise in relation to the global demographic transition; the potential long-term slowdown in productivity growth; and the rise in investment in renewable sources of energy which will be necessary to help ensure that the world is able to move towards zero emissions of carbon by 2050. We also discuss important policy issues in relation to the flows of international capital to emerging market economies, and the likely need for a sovereign debt reconstruction mechanism. We then go on to consider two significant structural changes to the world—the emergence of the European Monetary Union and the rise of China. A final section of the paper considers the importance of leadership in this global non-system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyse why an understanding of the global 'non-system', in which we now live, took so long to arrive after the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971. We first describe how knowledge of how an inflation-targeting regime would operate—what we call 'Taylor-rule macroeconomics'—was only gradually created during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. We then describe how, subsequent to this, an awareness emerged, also gradually, of how the international non-system might work, depending, as it does, on Taylor-rule macroeconomics being already in place. We then discuss the Great Moderation, making clear that a well-functioning global non-system would require not just inflation targeting and floating exchange rates in each country, but also adequate fiscal discipline, and a satisfactory form of financial regulation. We describe how a well-functioning version of this global non-system would actually fit together. We then discuss how this non-system has responded to two enormous challenges of the last 15 years, namely the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic. This discussion of what has happened in the recent past provides the background to a discussion, in the companion paper by Subacchi and Vines in this issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy , of the challenges that the global non-system will face in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malcolm Bradbury's novel Rates of Exchange, taking the economic term "rates of exchange" as a central metaphor, depicts various exchanges occurring in the socio-economic landscape of Britain during the 1970s and 1980s. In the context of governmental emphasis on economic development, the novel intricately explores exchanges among diverse entities, playing with multiple meanings of the term "exchange". In this way, the novel itself becomes a form of "legal tender," exchanged for reader comprehension, communication, and participation. It highlights the ubiquitous presence of exchange and the risks associated with the uncertain exchange rates between different entities. Furthermore, it invites readers to participate in the story-telling and the nostalgic journey back to British literary tradition. This paper, drawing on Roland Barthes's semiotic theory along with structuralist and poststructuralist concepts, investigates the multifaceted meanings of "exchange" in the novel. Through this analysis, the paper aims to illuminate the semiotic significance of various narrative forms and the profound thematic concerns in Bradbury's work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether and how export growth to China varies following shocks in bilateral political relations between China and six Southeast Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam—between 2000 and 2019. High‐frequency news data is used to quantify bilateral political relations between each of the six countries and China. Then, a net cooperation index, plus separate indices of political cooperation and conflict, are placed in an augmented gravity model of trade situated in a vector autoregression framework alongside real exchange rate and industrial production variables to examine the short‐ (months) and long‐run (years) effects of shocks to bilateral political relations on each countryʼs exports growth to China. The results reveal that political relations with China played a role in Thailandʼs and Vietnamʼs exports growth to China but not in Indonesiaʼs, Malaysiaʼs, the Philippinesʼ and Singaporeʼs, and contribute new findings to the literature on politics and trade. Code and data for the analysis is available at: https://github.com/tradepolsrepository/tradepols.git. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing number of countries have launched their central bank digital currencies (CBDC) in recent years, but the economic impacts of CBDC adoption are underexplored. To empirically assess how CBDC adoption influences regional economic integration, this paper investigates the Greater Bay Area, where China carried out one of its first digital renminbi pilot programs. The Greater Bay Area provides a good example because the growing acceptance of digital renminbi in the area can potentially mitigate transaction costs and risks due to the exchange rate volatility of the Chinese renminbi, Hong Kong dollar, and Macao pataca. CBDC adoption can lead to greater real and financial integrations by facilitating cross-border trade in goods and services. This paper evaluates deviations from uncovered interest rate parity, purchasing power parity, and real interest rate parity across Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao based on monthly interest rate and price data from January 2016 to December 2022. The time series have mean values near zero, which validate the parity conditions and indicate high degrees of financial, real, and economic integrations. The Markov regime-switching regression model identifies three regimes: (1) pre-Covid, (2) post-Covid, and (3) post-CBDC. The Covid-19 outbreak brought lower integration and stability, but the launch of the CBDC restored some of the pre-Covid integration and stability. Regimes 1 and 2 are persistent, and transitions from Regime 3 back to Regime 1 are probable. Hence, this study finds evidence that CBDC adoption improves regional economic integration in the short and long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The currency exchange rate is a crucial link between all countries related to economic and trade activities. With increasing volatility, exchange rate fluctuations have become frequent under the combined effects of global economic uncertainty and political risks. Consequently, accurate exchange rate prediction is significant in managing financial risks and economic instability. In recent years, the Transformer models have attracted attention in the field of time series analysis. Transformer models, such as Informer and TFT (Temporal Fusion Transformer), have also been extensively studied. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the Transformer, Informer, and TFT models based on four exchange rate datasets: NZD/USD, NZD/CNY, NZD/GBP, and NZD/AUD. The results indicate that the TFT model has achieved the highest accuracy in exchange rate prediction, with an R2 value of up to 0.94 and the lowest RMSE and MAE errors. However, the Informer model offers faster training and convergence speeds than the TFT and Transformer, making it more efficient. Furthermore, our experiments on the TFT model demonstrate that integrating the VIX index can enhance the accuracy of exchange rate predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Given the difficulties in finding significant exchange rate exposure in the extant literature, this paper attempts to resolve the so-called "exposure puzzle" by investigating whether currency movements have any significant impact on international industry returns. Design/methodology/approach: This paper utilizes the multivariate Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) methodology to estimate both symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposures for each industry common across 12 countries simultaneously. Findings: The empirical results show that exchange rate exposure is not only statistically significant but also economically important based on the estimation of an asymmetric three-factor exposure model using MGARCH methodology. This is an extremely important finding as it suggests that the "exposure puzzle" may not be a puzzle at all once a better methodology is utilized in the estimation. Research limitations/implications: Because this study tries to resolve the exchange rate exposure puzzle by focusing on whether exchange rate movements affect ex-post returns as opposed to ex ante expected returns and given the significant exposures with respect to different risk factors found in the study, it is interesting to see if any of these risk factors commands a risk premium. In other words, a natural extension of this study is to test whether any of these risk factors is priced in international industry returns. Practical implications: The findings of the study have interesting implications for international investors who would like to diversify their portfolios across different industries and are concerned about whether the unexpected movements in the bilateral exchange rates will affect their portfolio returns in addition to its interest rate and world market risk exposures. Originality/value: The study utilizes the MGARCH methodology, which has not been fully exploited in the exchange rate exposure literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the money demand functions in South Korea using three fully efficient cointegrating regression methods. We find that money demand and its determinants-real effective exchange rate, income, foreign interest rates, stock prices, and domestic interest rates-are cointegrated. Income and the exchange rate have a statistically significant positive effect on money demand, whereas domestic interest rates and stock prices have a statistically significant negative effect on money demand. Interestingly, the domestic interest rates are inelastic, implying that there is a limit to which monetary authorities can use the domestic interest rates to reduce South Korea's money demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author comments on the papers presented by economists Ronald I. McKinnon and Lawrence B. Krause focusing on the fixed and flexible exchange rates. He states that McKinnon is worried about the dangers of inflation, while Krause has an equal concern between the deflationary bias of fixed exchange rates and increased inflation as a result of flexibility. He mentions that McKinnon wants to retain short-run stability in exchange rates by thwarting economic policy fine-tuning. He disagrees with Krause's belief that capital movements and international trade need to be pushed to the limits of comparative advantage in order to maximize growth.

The consumer price index (CPI) is a crucial economic indicator of consumer price inflation, which has an attendance effect on the extent of savings and, hence, on investment capacity. The literature contains different opinions on the relationship between exchange rate and consumer price index; however, given the uniqueness of each country's economic environment, it became apposite to focus the bearing of this paper on the South African economic context. Thus, this paper evaluates the effect of currency exchange rates on the consumer price index in South Africa. Time series data on CPI and exchange rates were drawn from the Fusion Media investment database and were analysed using the OLS regression. For the independent variables exchange rate, which is the Rand price against the Dollar, the authors applied lagg-2 given the assumption that exchange rate differences might take up to two months to affect the consumer price index. The authors' assumption draws from the findings of eminent scholars, which indicate that, given sufficient time, changes in domestic prices would fully compensate for exchange rate adjustments. The analysis showed that exchange rate changes significantly and positively affect CPI within the data's boundaries. The findings offer academic and practical implications for understanding the theoretical short-term period effect of the exchange rate on the consumer price index within the South African setting and for practical economic policy application for advanced policies to cushion potential negative effects on savings and investment. The paper provides an agenda for further study of the application of expanded time series to evaluate the effect of currency exchange rates on CPI over a longer period to unravel a theoretical difference between the short-term and long-term implications of exchange rates on CPI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the calculation of returns of paper machines in which the result is greater than 100 percent. Calculations of the incremental justification projects; Computation of return based on the method of Return on Net Assets Employed; Impact of inflation, exchange rates, depreciation schedules, interest rates and tax rates on counting the returns.

This paper presents long-run exchange rate elasticities of Finnish newsprint and pulp export prices in the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany over the period 1980-94. The elasticities were estimated for a markup pricing model using Johansen's cointegration method. The magnitudes of the elasticity estimates obtained by imposing price homogeneity indicate that pass-through of exchange rate changes to export prices has been incomplete in both markets. For newsprint, the pass-through elasticity was 0.60 in the UK and 0.46 in Germany, which means that about one half of the changes in the exchange rates is reflected in prices as expressed in the destination countries' currencies and about a half in prices measured in Finnish markka. Instead, in pulp exports the pass-through elasticities differed from each other between the two destination countries more clearly than in newsprint exports, indicating a different pricing behaviour of Finnish pulp exporters in the UK and Germany when exchange rate changes. Pass-through was small in the UK pulp market (0.07) as compared to Germany (0.68). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined. Findings: The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment. Originality/value: The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to develop a model of the real equilibrium CZK/EUR exchange rate with all relevant explanatory variables. Emphasis will be placed on examining the longest possible time horizon, with a period of real convergence, but also economic stagnation. The model is based on the theoretical BEER approach using a cointegration or error correction model that distinguishes between short-term and long-term relationships. The results show that the Czech koruna strengthens when the productivity differential, terms of trade differential or gross fixed capital formation increase, while the koruna weakens when the VIX index representing global risk aversion increases. For the real interest rate differential, the hypothesis that the koruna strengthens in the short run during the improvement but weakens in the long run probably due to the country's risk premium, was confirmed. Moreover, it turned out that the start of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing led to strengthening of the Czech koruna, while the start of the CNB's foreign exchange interventions in 2013 led to weakening of the Czech koruna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The paper examines the causality between the German current account and financial account. It contrasts with past research which assumes the current account and financial account to be jointly determined by a saving-investment imbalance. Our analysis decomposes the current account into exports and imports (real resource flows) and the financial account into domestic capital outflows and foreign capital inflows (gross capital flows). Evidence from the Toda-Yamamoto causality test shows that for Germany from Q1.1980 to Q2.2023, the causality runs from the financial account to the current account. It is not real resource flows but gross capital flows which exert significant impacts on the German real exchange rate. The finding implies that over the long run, strong German capital outflows and weak foreign capital inflows contributed to weak wage growth and stagnant investment in Germany, sustaining the persistent German current account surpluses. A reduction of the German current account surpluses requires a policy mix of fiscal expansion and monetary tightening which would expand the absorption of German and foreign capital in the German economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]