Search

Objective To give an overview of the recent history of publications on mathematical modelling of infectious diseases in the Chinese literature, and a more detailed review of the models on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Method Literature review through the Chinese CAJ full-text database. Results The number of Chinese publications on mathematical modelling has at least quadrupled since the SARS epidemic in 2003. This increase not only included papers on SARS, but also on various other infectious diseases, indicating a substantial expansion of modelling experience in China. Typical problems of most studies were poor availability of data and lack of involvement of disease experts and decision-makers rendering the studies less useful for policies on control. Conclusions We expect that the recent experience on modelling and current better access to and exchange of epidemiological data have paved the way for a more substantial role of this discipline during possible future outbreaks of infectious diseases. By making Chinese modelling initiatives more visible to non-Chinese readers, we hope to attract more international collaborators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we aim to establish a mathematical model to design a maximizing social welfare intervention mechanism of healthcare service goods in China. The intervention mechanism is helpful to facilitate the adoption of the healthcare service goods. We consider a research problem that regulates the supply chain system for healthcare service goods by an intervention mechanism, and two intervention strategies composed of demand-growth strategy and subsidy strategy are used to the combination of intervention mechanism. Then this paper presents a new method based on fuzzy set and bilevel programming to design the intervention mechanism. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we conduct a case study for Wudang personalized health package and verify our model by the specific result analysis, the result indicates that our joint intervention mechanism is helpful to achieve the target and increase social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Problems of Sustainable Development / Problemy Ekorozwoju is the property of Faculty of Environmental Engineering and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Curcumae Rhizoma is the dry rhizome coming from Curcuma longa L. which grow widely in tropical south and southwest Asia. It has been used to treat conditions such as dermatoses, infections, stress, and depression. Moreover, in China, Curcumae Rhizoma and its active constituents have been made into different pharmaceutical preparations. Growing evidence suggests that these preparations can exert antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anti-cancer effects, which may play crucial roles in the treatment of various diseases, including cancer, infectious-, autoimmune-, neurological-, and cardiovascular diseases, as well as diabetes. The anti-infective effect of Curcumae Rhizoma has become a popular field of research around the world, including for the treatment of COVID-19, influenza virus, hepatitis B virus, human immunodeficiency virus, and human papilloma virus, among others. In this paper, the basic characteristics of Curcumae Rhizoma and its active constituents are briefly introduced, and we also give an overview on their applications and mechanisms in infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plague, a highly infectious disease caused by Yersinia pestis, has killed millions of people in history and is still active in the natural foci of the world nowadays. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of plague outbreaks in history is critically important, as it may help facilitate the prevention and control for potential future outbreaks. This study's objective was to estimate the effect of the topography, vegetation, climate, and other environmental factors on the Y. pestis ecological niche. A maximum entropy algorithm spatially modelled plague occurrence data from 2004--2018 and the environmental variables to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of Y. pestis. Our results found that the average minimum temperature in September (--8 °C to +5 °C) and the sheep population density (250 sheep per km2) were influential in characterising the niche. The rim of Qinghai Lake showed more favourable conditions for Y. pestis presence than other areas within the study area. Identifying various factors will assist any future modelling efforts. Our suitability map identifies hotspots and will help public health officials in resource allocation in their quest to abate future plague outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the availability of infectious disease counts in time and space has increased, and consequently, there has been renewed interest in model formulation for such data. In this paper, we describe a model that was motivated by the need to analyze hand, foot, and mouth disease surveillance data in China. The data are aggregated by geographical areas and by week, with the aims of the analysis being to gain insight into the space-time dynamics and to make short-term predictions, which will aid in the implementation of public health campaigns in those areas with a large predicted disease burden. The model we develop decomposes disease-risk into marginal spatial and temporal components and a space-time interaction piece. The latter is the crucial element, and we use a tensor product spline model with a Markov random field prior on the coefficients of the basis functions. The model can be formulated as a Gaussian Markov random field and so fast computation can be carried out using the integrated nested Laplace approximation approach. A simulation study shows that the model can pick up complex space-time structure and our analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease data in the central north region of China provides new insights into the dynamics of the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the emergence of H7N9 influenza in March 2013, local animal and public health authorities in China have been closing live bird markets as a measure to try to control the H7N9 influenza epidemic. The role of live bird market (LBM) closure on the spread of N7N9 influenza following the closure of LBMs during March to May 2013 (the first wave) and October 2013 to March 2014 (the second wave) is described in this paper. Different provinces implemented closure actions at different times, and intensive media reports on H7N9 in different provinces started at different times. Local broiler prices dropped dramatically in places with outbreaks and more live chickens were transported to other LBMs in neighboring areas without human cases from infected areas when live bird markets were being closed. There were six clusters of human infection from March to May 2013 and October 2013 to March 2014 and there may have been intensive poultry transportation among cluster areas. These findings provide evidence that the closure of LBMs in early waves of H7N9 influenza had resulted in expansion of H7N9 infection to uninfected areas. This suggests that provincial authorities in inland provinces should be alert to the risks of sudden changes in movement patterns for live birds after LBM closure or increased publicity about LBM closure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the link between various risk factors, including socioeconomic status (SES), and the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong in 2003. A comprehensive data set compiled by the author shows a negative and significant correlation between SARS incidence and various measures of income, but not years of education, unlike previous studies on other health conditions. The income-SARS gradient can be accounted for by controlling for pre-SARS housing values but not an array of measurable living conditions. Areas with more white-collar workers experienced a higher incidence rate, largely driven by the share of service and sales workers, after controlling for SES. These results have implications for the understanding of the SES-health link in the context of a contagious disease, the potential causality of the SES-SARS relationship and for future SARS containment strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using HIV/AIDS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and avian influenza as case studies, this paper discusses the processes and dilemmas of China's participation in health governance, both at the domestic level and the global level. Globalization has eroded the boundary between public and private health and between domestic and global health governance. In addition, the SARS outbreak of 2002-2003 focused global attention on China's public health. As a rising power with the largest population on earth, China is expected by the international community to play a better and more active role in health management. Since the turn of this century, China has increasingly embraced multilateralism in health governance. This paper argues that China's multilateral cooperation is driven by both necessity and conscious design. International concerns about good governance and its aspiration to become a 'responsible' state have exerted a normative effect on China to change tack. Its interactions with United Nations agencies have triggered a learning process for China to securitize the spread of infectious diseases as a security threat. Conversely, China has utilized multilateralism to gain access to international resources and technical assistance. It is still a matter of debate whether China's cooperative engagement with global health governance can endure, because of the persistent problems of withholding information on disease outbreaks and because of its insistence on the Westphalian notion of sovereignty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hospital Authority (HA) is a statutory body managing all the public hospitals and institutes in Hong Kong (HK). In recent decades, Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HKHA) has been making efforts to improve the healthcare services, but there still exist some problems like unfair resource allocation and poor management, as reported by the Hong Kong medical legislative committee. One critical consequence of these problems is low healthcare efficiency of hospitals, leading to low satisfaction among patients. Moreover, HKHA also suffers from the conflict between limited resource and growing demand. An effective evaluation of HA is important for resource planning and healthcare decision making. In this paper, we propose a two-phase method to evaluate HA efficiency for reducing healthcare expenditure and improving healthcare service. Specifically, in Phase I, we measure the HKHA efficiency changes from 2000 to 2013 by applying a novel DEA-Malmquist index with undesirable factors. In Phase II, we further explore the impact of some exogenous factors (e.g., population density) on HKHA efficiency by Tobit regression model. Empirical results show that there are significant differences between the efficiencies of different hospitals and clusters. In particular, it is found that the public hospital serving in a richer district has a relatively lower efficiency. To a certain extent, this reflects the socioeconomic reality in HK that people with better economic condition prefers receiving higher quality service from the private hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Caprine arthritis encephalitis is an infectious disease caused by the caprine arthritis encephalitis virus (CAEV). This virus can impair the quality of goat's milk, lamb, and other goat products. Most goats are latently infected with this virus and become long-term carriers, so the development of a rapid and accurate diagnostic method is necessary. Therefore, we constructed a TaqMan real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) assay and used it to detect CAEV in sheep in eastern China. We found that the prevalence of CAEV infection in sheep in eastern China was 0.77%. This method yields positive results when testing positive references and negative results when testing negative controls or other viruses. The consistency of these results was confirmed through repeating the experiment multiple times. It demonstrated excellent sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility and holds great promise for its potential application in clinical and field samples in the future. Caprine arthritis encephalitis is an infectious disease caused by the caprine arthritis encephalitis virus that infects goats, sheep, and other small ruminants. An outbreak of CAEV could be extremely harmful to the goat farming industry and could cause severe economic losses. We designed specific primers and probes for the gag gene and established a TaqMan real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay. This method's correlation coefficient (R2) was >0.999, and the sensitivity of the assay to the plasmid-carried partial gag gene was approximately 10 copies/µL, 1000 times higher than that of conventional PCR. No specific fluorescence was detected for other sheep viruses. Using this method, we tested 776 asymptomatic sheep blood samples and 4 neurodegenerative sheep brain samples from six farms in eastern China, and the positivity rate was 0.77% (6/780). The gag gene was partially sequenced in the three positive samples and compared with the sequences from other representative strains in GenBank. The results revealed that all three strains belonged to the B1 subtype and were most closely related to the strains from Shanxi and Gansu, previously isolated in China, with their homology ranging from 97.7% to 98.9%. These results suggest that the designed RT-qPCR assay can be used to detect subclinical CAEV in sheep and that the virus is still present in eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred in China for decades. Our understanding of the HFMD transmission process and its determinants is still limited. In this paper, factors that affect the local variation of HFMD transmission process were studied. Three classes of factors, including meteorological, demographic and public health intervention factors, were carefully selected and their effects on HFMD transmission were investigated with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models. The determining factors for the variation of HFMD transmission were different for the southeastern and the northwestern regions of China. In the northwest, fadeouts occurred yearly, and the average age at infection and the fadeout were negatively correlated with the population density. In the southeast, HFMD transmission was governed by the combined effects of the birth rate, the relative humidity and the interaction of the Health System Performance and the log of the population density. When the Health System Performance was low, HFMD transmission increased with the population density, but when the Health System Performance was high, the better health performance counteracted the transmission increase due to the higher population density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aimed to examine the rate and characteristics of retracted articles in infectious diseases and clinical microbiology. Using the Retraction Watch Database, we conducted a cross-sectional study for retracted publications categorized as 'Infectious Disease' or 'Microbiology' until June 30 2022. We included publications for which citation information was available through the Web of Science database. Study characteristics, retraction trends and number of citations before and after the retraction year were analysed. Overall, 1004 retracted publications were included, retracted between August 1968 and June 2022. The number of retractions climbed through the years, peaking in 2020–2021. A total of 614 retractions originated from USA, China, and India, of total 183 736 PubMed publications from these countries. Overall, 378 (38%) were retracted because of errors; 182 (18%) because of plagiarism; and 142 (14%) because of falsification/fabrication. Specific reasons included 'concerns/issues about data' (158, 16%); 'duplication of image' (127, 13%); and 'unreliable results' (116, 12%). Of the 347 retractions during 2020 to June 2022, 91 (26%) were COVID-19 related. Fifty of 895 (5.6%) first authors had two retracted papers, and 14 (1.6%) had ≥2 retractions. Of 824 publications cited at least once, 466 (57%) were cited more often after retraction. Retractions of infectious diseases and clinical microbiology publications are increasing. Concerning reasons such as plagiarism, falsification/fabrication and errors are not uncommon. Nonetheless, these publications continue to be commonly cited after being retracted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The HIV-1 epidemic among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) continues to expand in China. A large-scale national survey we conducted on HIV-1 strains among MSM in 11 provinces in China from 2008 to 2013 (n = 920) identified a novel transmission cluster consisting of six strains (0.7%) that belonged to a new circulating recombinant form (designated CRF59_01B). CRF59_01B contains two subtype B segments of U.S.-European origin (in the pol and vpu-env regions) in a CRF01_AE backbone. CRF59_01B is the second CRF (after CRF55_01B) circulating primarily among MSM in China. CRF59_01B occurs at a low frequency (less than 1%), but it was detected in four different provinces/regions in China: Liaoning (northeast China) (n = 3); Hunan (central China) (n = 1); Guangdong (south China) (n = 1); Yunnan (southwest China) (n = 1). One additional recombinant strain was detected in a heterosexual individual in Liaoning province but is not the focus of this paper. Bayesian molecular clock analyses indicate that CRF59_01B emerged as a result of recombination between CRF01_AE and subtype B around the year 2001. The emergence of multiple forms of recombinants and CRFs reflects the ever-increasing contribution of homosexual transmission in China's HIV epidemic and indicates an active HIV transmission network among MSM in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the leading cause of children and their leading killer. ARIs are responsible for at least six percent of the world's disability and death. Viruses are one of the most common agents causing ARIs. Few studies on the viral etiology and clinical characteristics of ARIs have been performed in the northwest region of China, including Gansu Province. Methods: Clinical and demographic information and throat swabs were collected from 279 patients from January 1st to December 30st, 2011. Multiplex RT-PCR was performed to detect 16 respiratory viral pathogens. Results: 279 patients were admitted for ARIs. The patients aged from 1 month to 12 years, with the median age of 2 years. Of which, 105 (37.6%) were positive for at least one pathogen. A total of 136 respiratory viral pathogens were identified from the 105 patients. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was the most frequently detected pathogen (26.5%, 36/136), followed by parainfluenza virus (PIV) 1–3 (22.1%, 30/136), human rhinovirus (HRV) (21.3%, 29/136), human coronavirus (CoV) (10.3%, 14/136) and human adenovirus (HAdV) (9.6%, 13/136). Influenza A (Flu A), human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and human bocavirus (BoCA) were found 4.4%, 3.7% and 2.2%, respectively. Influenza B (Flu B) and seasonal influenza A H1N1(sH1N1) were not detected. Single-infections were detected in 30.5% (85/279) of cases. RSV was the most common pathogens in patients under 1 year and showed seasonal variation with peaks during winter and spring. Conclusions: This paper presents data on the epidemiology of viral pathogens associated with ARIs among children in Gansu Province, China. RSV is most frequently detected in our study. The findings could serve as a reference for local CDC in drawing up further plans to prevent and control ARIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: syndromic surveillance system has great advantages in promoting the early detection of epidemics and reducing the necessities of disease confirmation, and it is especially effective for surveillance in resource poor settings. However, most current syndromic surveillance systems are established in developed countries, and there are very few reports on the development of an electronic syndromic surveillance system in resource-constrained settings. Objective: this study describes the design and pilot implementation of an electronic surveillance system (ISS) for the early detection of infectious disease epidemics in rural China, complementing the conventional case report surveillance system. Methods: ISS was developed based on an existing platform ‘Crisis Information Sharing Platform’ (CRISP), combining with modern communication and GIS technology. ISS has four interconnected functions: 1) work group and communication group; 2) data source and collection; 3) data visualization; and 4) outbreak detection and alerting. Results: As of Jan. 31st 2012, ISS has been installed and pilot tested for six months in four counties in rural China. 95 health facilities, 14 pharmacies and 24 primary schools participated in the pilot study, entering respectively 74256, 79701, and 2330 daily records into the central database. More than 90% of surveillance units at the study sites are able to send daily information into the system. In the paper, we also presented the pilot data from health facilities in the two counties, which showed the ISS system had the potential to identify the change of disease patterns at the community level. Conclusions: The ISS platform may facilitate the early detection of infectious disease epidemic as it provides near real-time syndromic data collection, interactive visualization, and automated aberration detection. However, several constraints and challenges were encountered during the pilot implementation of ISS in rural China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Before universal infant immunization against hepatitis B virus (HBV) in 1986 China was a region endemic for HBV infection. The prevalence of HBV infection in the population was about 60% and the proportion of chronic HBV carriers around 10%. These HBV carriers could progress to chronic hepatitis B, cirrhosis, and primary hepatocellular carcinoma. Since 1976, large-scale sero-surveys of HBV infection have been carried out and a lot of data have been collected.Method: This paper describes a mathematical model developed to predict the dynamics of HBV transmission and to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of the vaccination programme. We used a compartment model expressed by a set of partial differential equations based on the characteristics of HBV infection.Results: All parameters, expressed in the model as a non-linear function of age and time since vaccination, were estimated using sero-survey data. The model fits well with both pre-vaccination and post-vaccination sero-surveys. The observed and estimated age-specific prevalence rates of HBV infection and HBV carriage agree with each other. According to our model, if all newborns are vaccinated according to schedule, the rate of HBV carriage will decline sharply over time to 0.2% in 70 years. By then, the ratio of acute hepatitis B will be less than 0.5% and the ratio of chronic hepatitis B will be around 5%.Conclusions: The results suggest that HBV infection in China can be controlled in just one generation, and eventually eliminated. Our model shows that vaccination coverage is the most important indicator for the elimination of HBV transmission. The higher the vaccination coverage, the better the long-term effectiveness of immunization. Thus, the key to controlling and eliminating HBV transmission in China is to find ways to immunize all infants throughout the country, especially in poor, rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China. Methods: A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method. Results: Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries. Conclusions: Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The current outbreak of COVID-19 infection, which started in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019, is an ongoing challenge and a significant threat to public health requiring surveillance, prompt diagnosis, and research efforts to understand a new, emergent, and unknown pathogen and to develop effective therapies. Despite the increasing number of published studies on COVID-19, in all the examined studies the lack of a well-defined pathophysiology of death among patients who died following COVID-19 infection is evident. Autopsy should be considered mandatory to define the exact cause of death, thus providing useful clinical and epidemiologic information as well as pathophysiological insights to further provide therapeutic tools. Methods: A literature review was performed on PubMed database, using the key terms: "COVID-19", "nCov 19", and "Sars Cov 2". 9709 articles were retrieved; by excluding all duplicated articles, additional criteria were then applied: articles or abstracts in English and articles containing one of the following words: "death", "died", "comorbidity", "cause of death", "biopsy", "autopsy", or "pathological". Results: A total of 50 articles met the inclusion criteria. However, only 7 of these studies reported autopsy-based data. Discussion: The analysis of the main data from the selected studies concerns the complete analysis of 12,954 patients, of whom 2269 died (with a mortality rate of 17.52%). Laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection was obtained in all cases and comorbidities were fully reported in 46 studies. The most common comorbidities were: cardiovascular diseases (hypertension and coronary artery disease), metabolic disorders (diabetes, overweight, or obesity), respiratory disorders (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and cancer. The most common reported complications were: acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute kidney injury, cardiac injury, liver insufficiency, and septic shock. Only 7 papers reported histological investigations. Nevertheless, only two complete autopsies are described and the cause of death was listed as COVID-19 in only one of them. The lack of postmortem investigation did not allow a definition of the exact cause of death to determine the pathways of this infection. Based on the few histopathological findings reported in the analyzed studies, it seems to be a clear alteration of the coagulation system: frequently prothrombotic activity with consequent thromboembolism was described in COVID-19 patients. As a scientific community, we are called on to face this global threat, and to defeat it with all the available tools necessary. Despite the improvement and reinforcement of any method of study in every field of medicine and science, encouraging the autopsy practice as a tool of investigation could also therefore, help physicians to define an effective treatment to reduce mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the past decade, bacillary dysentery was still a big public health problem in China, especially in Guangxi Province, where thousands of severe diarrhea cases occur every year. Methods: Reported bacillary dysentery cases in Guangxi Province were obtained from local Centers for Diseases Prevention and Control. The 14 socio-economic indexes were selected as potential explanatory variables for the study. The spatial correlation analysis was used to explore the associations between the selected factors and bacillary dysentery incidence at county level, which was based on the software of ArcGIS10.2 and GeoDA 0.9.5i. Results: The proportion of primary industry, the proportion of younger than 5-year-old children in total population, the number of hospitals per thousand persons and the rates of bacillary dysentery incidence show statistically significant positive correlation. But the proportion of secondary industry, per capital GDP, per capital government revenue, rural population proportion, popularization rate of tap water in rural area, access rate to the sanitation toilets in rural, number of beds in hospitals per thousand persons, medical and technical personnel per thousand persons and the rate of bacillary dysentery incidence show statistically significant negative correlation. The socio-economic factors can be divided into four aspects, including economic development, health development, medical development and human own condition. The four aspects were not isolated from each other, but interacted with each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff’s methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff’s statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff’s statistics are superior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several approaches have been proposed for near real-time detection and prediction of the spread of influenza. These include search query data for influenza-related terms, which has been explored as a tool for augmenting traditional surveillance methods. In this paper, we present a method that uses Internet search query data from Baidu to model and monitor influenza activity in China. The objectives of the study are to present a comprehensive technique for: (i) keyword selection, (ii) keyword filtering, (iii) index composition and (iv) modeling and detection of influenza activity in China. Sequential time-series for the selected composite keyword index is significantly correlated with Chinese influenza case data. In addition, one-month ahead prediction of influenza cases for the first eight months of 2012 has a mean absolute percent error less than 11%. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the use of search query data from Baidu in conjunction with this approach for estimation of influenza activity in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We undertook a systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of artificial intelligence-based software for identification of radiologic abnormalities (computer-aided detection, or CAD) compatible with pulmonary tuberculosis on chest x-rays (CXRs). We searched four databases for articles published between January 2005-February 2019. We summarized data on CAD type, study design, and diagnostic accuracy. We assessed risk of bias with QUADAS-2. We included 53 of the 4712 articles reviewed: 40 focused on CAD design methods (“Development” studies) and 13 focused on evaluation of CAD (“Clinical” studies). Meta-analyses were not performed due to methodological differences. Development studies were more likely to use CXR databases with greater potential for bias as compared to Clinical studies. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (median AUC [IQR]) were significantly higher: in Development studies AUC: 0.88 [0.82–0.90]) versus Clinical studies (0.75 [0.66–0.87]; p-value 0.004); and with deep-learning (0.91 [0.88–0.99]) versus machine-learning (0.82 [0.75–0.89]; p = 0.001). We conclude that CAD programs are promising, but the majority of work thus far has been on development rather than clinical evaluation. We provide concrete suggestions on what study design elements should be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat’s emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4– based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500–4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre–to post–4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Many studies focused on reasons behind the increasing incidence and the spread of human brucellosis in mainland China, yet most of them lacked comprehensive consideration with quantitative evidence. Hence, this study aimed to further investigate the epidemic mechanism and associated factors of human brucellosis so as to provide thoughts for future countermeasures in China and the rest of the world. Methods: Data of human brucellosis incidence and some associated factors in economy, animal husbandry, transportation as well as health and hygiene were collected at provincial level from 2005–2016. Time series plots were first used to visualize the annual incidence and annual rate of change of human brucellosis for each province, then cluster analysis categorized all the 31 provinces of mainland China based on their incidence time series during the study period. In addition, according to the characteristics of data, the dynamic panel data model in combination with supervised principal component analysis was proposed to explore effects of associated factors on human brucellosis. Results: 1. The incidence rate of human brucellosis in mainland China increased three-fold from 1.41 per 100,000 people in 2005 to 4.22 per 100,000 people in 2014, though it went down a little in 2015 and 2016. Incidence rates in the north have always been higher than those in the south, but the latter also experienced an upward trend especially between 2012 and 2016. 2. The 31 provinces of mainland China were categorized into three clusters, and each cluster had its own characteristics of incidence time series. 3. The impact of health and hygiene situations on the prevention and control work of human brucellosis was still very limited and trivial (regression coefficient = -0.02). Therefore, it was plausible to presume that improving the personal average number of medical institutes and the proportion of rural medical expenditure might be helpful in preventing and controlling human brucellosis. Conclusions: The epidemic status of human brucellosis has changed in both spatial and temporal dimensions in recent years in mainland China. Apart from traditional control measures, more attention should be paid to the improvement of medical healthcare especially in rural areas in the hope of enhancing the control effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is well recognized as one of the major threats to children's health globally. The increasing complexity of the etiology of HFMD still challenges disease control in China. There is little surveillance of the molecular epidemiological characteristics of the enteroviruses (EVs) that cause HFMD in Neijiang city or the Sichuan Basin area in Southwest China. In this study, demographic and epidemiological information for 14,928 probable HFMD cases was extracted and analyzed to describe the epidemic features of HFMD in Neijiang city from Jan 2010 to Dec 2017. The swab samples of select probable HFMD cases from 2012 to 2017 were tested by reverse transcription (RT) real-time PCR to identify the serotype distribution of EVs, and 110 randomly selected RT-real-time PCR positive samples were then amplified and analyzed for the VP1 or VP4 regions of EVs to further analyze the phylogenetic characteristics of the circulating strains in this area. The eight-year average annual incidence was 49.82 per 100,000 in Neijiang. The incidence rates varied between 19.51 and 70.73 per 100,000, demonstrating peaks of incidence in even-number years (2012, 2014 and 2016). The median age of the probable cases was 27 months and the interquartile range (25th to 75th percentile) of ages for the probable HFMD cases was between 14 and 42 months. The male-to-female ratio of the probable HFMD cases was 1.47:1, and scattered children were the major population classification (81.7%). Two epidemic peaks were observed: one major peak between April and July and the other lesser peak between October and December. Of 6513 probable cases tested with RT-real-time PCR, 4015 (61.6%) were positive for enterovirus with the serotype distribution as follows: EV71+, 30.1% (n = 1210); CV-A16+, 28.7% (n = 1154) and a sole pan-enterovirus+, 41.1% (n = 1651). A total of 91 cases (82.7%, 91/110) were successfully amplified and underwent phylogenetic analysis: all EV71+ cases were C4a serotype (n = 23/30); all CV-A16+ cases were B2b serotype (n = 24/30); of 42 sole pan-enterovirus+ samples, 20 were CV-A6, 14 were CV-A10 and the rest within this group were CV-A4 (n = 4), CV-A8 (n = 2), CV-A9 (n = 1) and CV-B3 (n = 1). Our findings provide important evidence that aids the improvement of strategies for vaccination against HFMD and comprehensive disease control in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Enterocytozoon bieneusi is the most common microsporidian species causing diarrhea and other intestinal disorders in humans and animals. Like other infectious diseases, microsporidiosis usually disproportionately affects poor populations. In China, some ethnic minority areas remain poor. Currently, no information of E. bieneusi infection is available in minority populations. The present aims were to understand occurrence and genetic characterizations of E. bieneusi in ethnic minority groups from a poverty-stricken ethnic township in Yunnan Province, and to assess risk factors for E. bieneusi infection. Methodology/Principal findings: 289 fecal specimens were collected from Yao people (one specimen each) with and without diarrhea, in Yunnan Province. E. bieneusi was identified and genotyped by PCR and sequence analysis of the ITS region of the rRNA gene. An average prevalence of 8.30% (24/289) was observed and four genotypes were identified—genotype Peru6 (n = 21) and three novel genotypes (one each). Genotype Peru6 was detected in two family members in each of three families. In a phylogenetic analysis, all of four genotypes fell into group 1 with zoonotic potential. The people owning individual pit toilets had a statistically higher prevalence of E. bieneusi (16.67%, 12/72) than those using public pit toilets (6.06%, 12/198). Conclusions/Significance: This is the first report on occurrence and genetic characteristics of E. bieneusi in ethnic minority groups in China. Genotype Peru6 was found in humans in China for the first time and showed dominance in Yao people. The same genotype was found in some family members and all the genotypes fell into group 1, suggesting the possibility of anthroponotic and zoonotic transmissions. The majority (83.33%, 20/24) of E. bieneusi positive individuals did not present diarrhea. In any case, it is important to recognize their existence and the importance that asymptomatic individuals to E. bieneusi may have from an epidemiological point of view, as transmitters of this pathogen. The analysis of risk factors provides scientific evidence for the development of effective strategies for prevention and control of E. bieneusi infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Children attending kindergarten are at high risk for contracting infections, for which hand hygiene (HH) has been recognized as the most cost-effective prevention measure globally. Kindergarten teachers’ HH behavior plays a vital role in encouraging favorable hygiene techniques and environment. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a multimodal intervention at changing kindergarten teachers’ HH behavior and social cognitive factors that influences HH behavior in China. The intervention named “Clean Hands, Happy Life” includes HH products with refills, reminders and cues for action, a kick-off event with awards, and training programs. We evaluated the intervention using a self-administrative questionnaire with a stratified random sample of 12 kindergartens. Two surveys was completed by 176 teachers at baseline and 185 after the 6-month intervention. Compared with the baseline scores, there was a significant improvement in the overall self-reported HH compliance of teachers (9.38 vs. 9.68 out of 10, p = 0.006), as well as teachers’ perceived disease susceptibility, disease severity and behavioral control after the intervention (p<0.05). We found that teachers’ HH compliance was likely to be higher among those who have better HH guideline awareness (β = 0.48, p<0.01) and perceived behavioral control (β = 0.26, p = 0.01), which explained 24.2% of the variance of self-reported compliance of teachers at baseline. The assessed intervention may provide Chinese kindergarten teachers with behavioral skills and cognitions that associated with the compliance of HH behavior. We thus recommend future intervention studies consider our HH behavior change techniques, address multiple social cognitive determinants of HH behavior and include the change of targeted influences in the impact evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Nation-wide hepatitis B vaccination coverage among healthcare workers (HCWs) is not well researched in China. This study aims to investigate the self-reported hepatitis B vaccination status among HCWs in China. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of health_care workers’ vaccination statuses in 120 hospitals in China by collecting demographic and vaccination data. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to assess factors associated with hepatitis B vaccination coverage. Results: Eighty-six percent (2,666/3,104) of respondents reported having received at least one dose of the hepatitis B vaccination and 60% (1,853/3,104) reported having completed ≥3 doses of the hepatitis B vaccination. Factors associated with completing ≥3 doses of the hepatitis B vaccination included workplaces offering free hepatitis B vaccination with vaccination management, age, medical occupation, hospital level, acceptable hepatitis B knowledge and having received training on hepatitis B. HCWs in workplaces offering a free hepatitis B vaccine with vaccination management were 1.4 times more likely (OR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1–1.8) to complete their hepatitis B vaccination compared to HCWs in workplaces that did not offer a free hepatitis B vaccine. Either the possession of acceptable hepatitis B knowledge or an age of 30–39 years increased the odds of complete hepatitis B vaccination by 1.3-fold (95% CIs: 1.1–1.5 and 1.1–1.7, respectively) over their referent category. The receipt of training on hepatitis B was also associated with a higher percentage of completing the hepatitis B vaccination (OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2–1.8). The main self-reported reason for incomplete hepatitis B vaccination was “forgot to complete follow-up doses” among 43% (234/547) of respondents. Among those who never received any hepatitis B vaccination, only 30% (131/438) intended to be vaccinated. Obtaining immunity from work (40%) and hospitals that did not provide hepatitis B vaccination activities (40%) were the top reasons mentioned for refusing hepatitis B vaccination. Conclusions: The complete hepatitis B vaccination rate among HCWs in China is low, and the desire of HCWs for vaccination is indifferent; therefore, education campaigns are needed. In addition, a free national hepatitis B vaccination policy for HCWs that includes vaccination management should be prioritized to improve hepatitis B coverage among HCWs who are at-risk for HBV infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is evidence of a bidirectional association between dental caries and anthropometric measures among children. This dual relationship has not been examined in the same population. The objectives of this study are (1) to examine the relationship between baseline caries and changes in weight and height; and (2) to assess whether baseline weight and height are associated with changes in dental caries in a sample of preschool Chinese children. Children were recruited from 15 kindergarten in Liaoning Province at baseline (8 in rural area and 7 in urban area), a total of 1,111 of children were included at baseline. The mean age of children at baseline was 50.82 months. Data were collected through clinical oral examination, assessment of anthropometric measures and structured questionnaire. Dental caries was assessed according World Health Organization (WHO) methods by one dentist. Sociodemographic and behaviour data were also collected. At follow-up, 772 children were included (attrition rate: 30%), dental caries and anthropometric measures were assessed again. Z-score for weight-for-age and height-for-age were calculated using the 2006 and 2007 WHO Child Growth Standards. The sum of decayed, missing and filled primary teeth (dmft) were used in the analysis. Multilevel analysis for longitudinal data was conducted to explore the relationship between z-score for weight-for-age and height-for-age, and dental caries among children. The median follow-up time was 10.12 months. There was a significant negative association between dmft at baseline and change in height-for-age. On the other hand, weight-for-age at baseline was negatively associated with change in dmft at follow-up. The findings suggest that dental caries impedes children’s growth indicated by height for age. Low weight children appear to be more susceptible to dental caries in the same population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Leishmaniasis caused by protozoan parasite Leishmania is a neglected disease which is endemic in the northwest of China. Reptiles were considered to be the potential reservoir hosts for mammalian Leishmaniasis, and Leishmania had been detected in lizards from the epidemic area in the northwest of China. To date, few studies are focused on the natural infection of snakes with Leishmania. Methods: In this study, 15 snakes captured from 10 endemic foci in the northwest of China were detected Leishmania spp. on the base of mitochondrial cytochrome b, heat shock protein 70 gene and ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 1 regions, and identified with phylogenetic and network analyses. Result: In total, Leishmania gene was found in 7 snakes. The phylogenetic inference trees and network analysis suggests that the species identification was confirmed as Leishmania donovani, L. turanica and L. (Sauroleishmania) sp. Conclusion: Our work is the first time to investigate the natural Leishmania spp. infection of snakes in the northwest of China. Mammalian Leishmania (L. donovani and L. turanica) was discovered in snakes and the reptilian Leishmania (Sauroleishmania sp.) was closely related to the clinical strains both prompt the importance of snakes in the disease cycle. To indicate the epidemiological involvement of snakes, a wide sample size in epidemic area and the pathogenic features of reptilian Leishmania promastigotes are recommended in the future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China’s national tuberculosis programme does not have cohort wise information regarding attrition and delays in the multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) diagnosis and treatment pathway. Objective: Under the Global Fund programmatic management of drug-resistant TB (2006–13), we assessed the attrition and delay in the pathway and the factors associated. Methods: Cohort study involving secondary programme data. All patients identified as presumptive MDR-TB (defined as i) previously treated TB patients which included recurrent TB, return after loss to follow up, treatment after failure and ii) new TB patients that were non-converters at three months of treatment or in close contact with a known MDR-TB patient) during October 2006 to June 2013 were eligible for phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (DST). Pre-diagnosis attrition (presumptive MDR-TB not undergoing culture and DST) and pre-treatment attrition (confirmed MDR-TB patients not initiated on treatment) was calculated. Diagnosis delay was the time interval from DST eligibility to DST result, treatment initiation delay was fom DST result to treatment initiation and total delay was from DST eligbility to treatment initiation. Factors associated with attrition and delay were identified using log binomial regression and linear regression, respectively. Results: Of 78 564 presumptive MDR-TB patients, 2 470 (3.1%) underwent pre-diagnosis attrition. Of 9 283 MDR-TB patients, 3 361 (36.2%) underwent pre-treatment attrition. Median(IQR) diagnosis delay was 84 (64, 114) days; treatment initation delay was 23(6,68) days and total delay was 117(77,187) days. Long diagnosis delay was an independent predictor of pre-treatment attrition in a dose response relationship. While pre-treatment attrition was less likely among presumptive criterion ‘previously treated’ and with increasing time period, it was more likey among elderly and in east and west region. While the diagnosis delay increased with time period, treatment initiation delay and total delay reduced with time period. Short diagnosis delay was associated with west region, smear negative patients and presumptive criterion ‘treatment after lost to follow up’. Short treatment initiation delay was associatied with east and west regions while long treatment initiation delay was associated with elderly and presumptive criterion ‘recurrent TB’. Total delay predictors were similar to treatment initiation delay. In addition, short total delay was associated with presumptive criterion ‘treatment after failure’. Conclusion: The diagnosis and treatment delay were long and the pre-treatment attrition was considerable high. Long diagnosis delay is likely to predict pre-treatment attrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China has a substantial tuberculosis (TB) disease burden and an aging population. Seniors have a higher risk of developing TB disease compared to younger age groups. Active case finding (ACF) could help identify seniors with TB disease. Methods: From March to June 2017, we included ACF during annual physical check-ups for persons aged ≥ 65 years in Bayi, Sichuan Province. Seniors with clinical TB symptoms (i.e., cough lasting ≥ 2 weeks and/or hemoptysis) or one or more risk factors (e.g., previous TB disease, diabetes, and heavy alcohol consumption) were offered chest x-rays. We used acid-Fast Bacilli smear and solid culture laboratory testing for TB confirmation. We calculated the yield (i.e., cases identified among seniors screened) and cost per new each TB case detected. Focus group-interviews were conducted with health care workers and seniors to evaluate project acceptability. Participation rates and acceptability were used to assess feasibility. Results: Of the 2,393 seniors residing in Bayi, 2,049 (85.6%) were enrolled in the pilot project. Of these seniors, 794 (38.7%) presented with at least one TB risk factor and 74 (3.6%) had symptoms consistent with active TB disease. Three seniors (0.2%)–each presenting with at least one risk factor—were diagnosed with active TB. The project yielded 146 TB cases per 100,000 seniors screened; the cost per case detected was $4,897. Most workers supported ACF if additional resources and staff could be provided. Seniors appreciated the convenience of this integrated health service approach. Conclusions: Although the yield was lower than expected, ACF appeared feasible in Bayi. Targeting seniors with at least one known TB risk factor could help detect previously unidentified TB cases. However, similar projects in communities with a higher TB prevalence are needed to further evaluate the yield and required resources prior to implementation on a larger scale. Findings from our pilot project should be combined with data from these future ACF projects to improve TB screening criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus disease have led to public concern and have created a global public health burden. Hantavirus spillover from natural hosts into human populations could be considered an ecological process, in which environmental forces, behavioral determinants of exposure, and dynamics at the human–animal interface affect human susceptibility and the epidemiology of the disease. In this review, we summarize the progress made in understanding hantavirus epidemiology and rodent reservoir population biology. We mainly focus on three species of rodent hosts with longitudinal studies of sufficient scale: the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius, the main reservoir host for Hantaan virus [HTNV], which causes HFRS) in Asia, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus, the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus [SNV], which causes HPS) in North America, and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus, the main reservoir host for Puumala virus [PUUV], which causes HFRS) in Europe. Moreover, we discuss the influence of ecological factors on human hantavirus disease outbreaks and provide an overview of research perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China used to be among the countries with a high prevalence of trachoma. At the launch of The Global Elimination of Trachoma (GET) 2020 campaign by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1996, China was placed on the list of countries endemic for trachoma based on historical data. However, empirical observation and routinely collected eye care data were suggesting that trachoma was no longer a public health problem. To determine whether the GET 2020 goals had been met in P. R. China, we conducted a targeted assessment with national scope. Methodology/principal finding: Province assessment teams, trained in WHO Trachoma Rapid Assessment (TRA) methodology and in WHO simplified trachoma grading system, carried out assessments in 16 provinces (among them, 2 provinces conducted pilot assessment). Based on the published literature, including national and international reports, suspected trachoma-endemic areas within each province were identified. Within these areas, trachomatous inflammation- follicular (TF) assessments were carried out in at least 50 grade-one children in primary schools serving villages with the lowest socio-economic development. Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) and corneal opacity (CO) assessments were conducted among persons aged 15 and over in villages within the catchment area of the selected schools. Of 8,259 children examined in 128 primary schools in 97 suspected trachoma endemic areas, only 16 cases of conjunctivitis were graded as TF. 38 cases with TT were found among the 339,013 examined residents in villages surrounding the schools. Among these 97 suspected trachoma endemic areas in only three was the prevalence of TT more than 0.2%. Conclusions/significance: This large study suggested that trachoma was not a public health problem in 16 provinces that had been previously suspected to be endemic. These findings will facilitate planning for elimination of trachoma from PR China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It is a daunting task to discontinue pertussis completely in China owing to its growing increase in the incidence. While basic to any formulation of prevention and control measures is early response for future epidemic trends. Discrete wavelet transform(DWT) has been emerged as a powerful tool in decomposing time series into different constituents, which facilitates better improvement in prediction accuracy. Thus we aim to integrate modeling approaches as a decision-making supportive tool for formulating health resources. Methods: We constructed a novel hybrid method based on the pertussis morbidity cases from January 2004 to May 2018 in China, where the approximations and details decomposed by DWT were forecasted by a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and nonlinear autoregressive network (NAR), respectively. Then, the obtained values were aggregated as the final results predicted by the combined model. Finally, the performance was compared with the SARIMA, NAR and traditional SARIMA-NAR techniques. Results: The hybrid technique at level 2 of db2 wavelet including a SARIMA(0,1,3)(1,0,0)12modelfor the approximation-forecasting and NAR model with 12 hidden units and 4 delays for the detail d1-forecasting, along with another NAR model with 11 hidden units and 5 delays for the detail d2-forecasting notably outperformed other wavelets, SARIMA, NAR and traditional SARIMA-NAR techniques in terms of the mean square error, root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Descriptive statistics exhibited that a substantial rise was observed in the notifications from 2013 to 2018, and there was an apparent seasonality with summer peak. Moreover, the trend was projected to continue upwards in the near future. Conclusions: This hybrid approach has an outstanding ability to improve the prediction accuracy relative to the others, which can be of great help in the prevention of pertussis. Besides, under current trend of pertussis morbidity, it is required to urgently address strategically within the proper policy adopted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the deadliest infectious disease globally. Current case finding approaches may miss many people with TB or detect them too late. Data and methods: This study was a retrospective, spatial analysis of routine TB surveillance and cadastral data in Go Vap district, Ho Chi Minh City. We geocoded TB notifications from 2011 to 2015 and calculated theoretical yields of simulated door-to-door screening in three concentric catchment areas (50m, 100m, 200m) and three notification window scenarios (one, two and four quarters) for each index case. We calculated average yields, compared them to published reference values and fit a GEE (Generalized Estimating Equation) linear regression model onto the data. Results: The sample included 3,046 TB patients. Adjusted theoretical yields in 50m, 100m and 200m catchment areas were 0.32% (95%CI: 0.27,0.37), 0.21% (95%CI: 0.14,0.29) and 0.17% (95%CI: 0.09,0.25), respectively, in the baseline notification window scenario. Theoretical yields in the 50m-catchment area for all notification window scenarios were significantly higher than a reference yield from literature. Yield was positively associated with treatment failure index cases (beta = 0.12, p = 0.001) and short-term inter-province migrants (beta = 0.06, p = 0.022), while greater distance to the DTU (beta = -0.02, p<0.001) was associated with lower yield. Conclusions: This study is an example of inter-departmental collaboration and application of repurposed cadastral data to progress towards the end TB objectives. The results from Go Vap showed that the use of spatial analysis may be able to identify areas where targeted active case finding in Vietnam can help improve TB case detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In China, internal migrants constitute one-fifth of tuberculosis (TB) patients registered for treatment in web-based TB information management system (TBIMS). Though China added a specific module in the web-based TBIMS in 2009, web-based transfer-out is not specifically recommended in the national guidelines. Objective: In this country wide study among all registered migrant TB patients (2014–2015) that were transferred out using web-based TBIMS in China, to determine the i) timing of transfer-out in relation to period of treatment; ii) delay and attrition during transfer interval (between transfer-out and transfer-in); and iii) extent and risk factors for ‘not evaluated’ as the treatment outcome. Methods: This was a cohort study involving review of web-based TBIMS data. Modified Poisson regression was used to build a predictive model for risk factors of ‘not evaluated’ as the treatment outcome. Results: Among 7 284 patients, 5 900 (81.0%) were transferred out during the first two months after initiation of treatment or before treatment initiation and 7 088 (97.3%) patients had arrived at transfer-in unit. The median transfer interval was three (interquartile range: 0–14) days. Sixteen percent (1 176/7 284) patients had ‘not evaluated’ as their treatment outcome. ‘Not evaluated’ contributed to 66% of the unfavourable outcomes. Patients transferred from referral hospitals, migrated from out of prefecture, transferred out of prefecture, with sputum smear negative pulmonary TB, with TB pleurisy and with long delay between symptom onset and treatment initiation had significantly higher risk of ‘not evaluated’ as the outcome. Conclusion: Web-based transfer helped as the delay and attrition during the transfer interval was quite short and treatment outcomes of more than four-fifths of transferred out migrant TB patients were available with transfer-out BMU. Once strategies to address the independent predictors of ‘not evaluated’ treatment outcome are devised, China may consider mandatory use of web-based TBIMS for transferring out migrant TB patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genotypes of the H9N2 avian influenza viruses have changed since 2013 when almost all H9N2 viruses circulating in chickens in China were genotype 57 (G57) with the fittest lineage of each gene. To characterize the H9N2 variant viruses from 2011 to 2014, 28 H9N2 influenza viruses were isolated from live poultry markets in China from 2011–2014 and were analyzed by genetic and biological characterization. Our findings showed that 16 residues that changed antigenicity, two potential N-linked glycosylation sites, and one amino acid in the receptor binding site of the HA protein changed significantly from 2011–2014. Moreover, the HA and NA genes in the phylogenetic tree were mainly clustered into two independent branches, A and B, based on the year of isolation. H9N2 virus internal genes were related to those from the human-infected avian influenza viruses H5N1, H7N9, and H10N8. In particular, the NS gene in the phylogenetic tree revealed genetic divergence of the virus gene into three branches labeled A, B, and C, which were related to the H9N2, H10N8, and H7N9 viruses, respectively. Additionally, the isolates also showed varying levels of infection and airborne transmission. These results indicated that the H9N2 virus had undergone an adaptive evolution and variation from 2011–2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a highly infectious, zoonotic disease. Hundreds of human plague cases are reported across the world annually. Qinghai Plateau is one of the most severely affected plague regions in China, with more than 240 fatal cases of Y. pestis in the last 60 years. Conventional epidemiologic analysis has effectively guided the prevention and control of local plague transmission; however, molecular genetic analysis is more effective for investigating population diversity and transmission. In this report, we employed different genetic markers to analyze the population structure of Y. pestis in Qinghai Plateau. Methodology/Principal finding: We employed a two-step hierarchical strategy to analyze the phylogeny of 102 Qinghai Plateau isolates of Y. pestis, collected between 1954 and 2011. First, we defined the genealogy of Y. pestis by constructed minimum spanning tree based on 25 key SNPs. Seven groups were identifi7ed, with group 1.IN2 being identified as the dominant population. Second, two methods, MLVA and CRISPR, were applied to examine the phylogenetic detail of group 1.IN2, which was further divided into three subgroups. Subgroups of 1.IN2 revealed a clear geographic cluster, possibly associated with interaction between bacteriophage and Y. pestis. More recently, Y. pestis populations appear to have shifted from the east toward the center and west of Qinghai Plateau. This shift could be related to destruction of the local niche of the original plague focus through human activities. Additionally, we found that the abundance and relative proportion of 1.IN2 subgroups varied by decade and might be responsible for the fluctuations of plague epidemics in Qinghai Plateau. Conclusion/Significance: Molecular genotyping methods provided us with detailed information on population diversity and the spatial-temporal distribution of dominant populations of Y. pestis, which will facilitate future surveillance, prevention, and control of plague in Qinghai Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal clustering and socio-environmental factors associated with dengue fever (DF) incidence rates at street level in Guangzhou City, China. Methods: Spatiotemporal scan technique was applied to identify the high risk region of DF. Multiple regression model was used to identify the socio-environmental factors associated with DF infection. A Poisson regression model was employed to examine the spatiotemporal patterns in the spread of DF. Results: Spatial clusters of DF were primarily concentrated at the southwest part of Guangzhou City. Age group (65+ years) (Odd Ratio (OR) = 1.49, 95% Confidence Interval = 1.13 to 2.03), floating population (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.15), low-education (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.16) and non-agriculture (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.11) were associated with DF transmission. Poisson regression results indicated that changes in DF incidence rates were significantly associated with longitude (β = -5.08, P<0.01) and latitude (β = -1.99, P<0.01). Conclusions: The study demonstrated that social-environmental factors may play an important role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. As geographic range of notified DF has significantly expanded over recent years, an early warning systems based on spatiotemporal model with socio-environmental is urgently needed to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of dengue control and prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical pharmacy is not only a medical science but also an elaborate public health care system firmly related to its subsystems of education, training, qualification authentication, scientific research, management, and human resources. China is a developing country with a tremendous need for improvements in the public health system, including the clinical pharmacy service system. Objectives: The aim of this research was to evaluate the infrastructure and personnel qualities of clinical pharmacy services in China. Setting: Public county hospitals in China. Materials and method: A national survey of clinical pharmacists in county hospitals was conducted. It was sampled through a stratified sampling strategy. Responses were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The main outcome measures include the coverage of clinical pharmacy services, the overall staffing of clinical pharmacists, the software and hardware of clinical pharmacy services, the charge mode of clinical pharmacy services, and the educational background, professional training acquisition, practical experience, and entry path of clinical pharmacists. Results: The overall coverage of clinical pharmacy services on both the department scale (median = 18.25%) and the patient scale (median = 15.38%) does not meet the 100% coverage that is required by the government. In 57.73% of the sample hospitals, the staffing does not meet the requirement, and the size of the clinical pharmacist group is smaller in larger hospitals. In addition, 23.4% of the sample hospitals do not have management rules for the clinical pharmacists, and 43.1% do not have rational drug use software, both of which are required by the government. In terms of fees, 89.9% of the sample hospitals do not charge for the services. With regard to education, 8.5% of respondents are with unqualified degree, and among respondents with qualified degree, 37.31% are unqualified in the major; 43% of respondents lack the clinical pharmacist training required by the government. Most respondents (93.5%) have a primary or medium professional title. The median age and work seniority of respondents are 31 and four years, respectively. Only 18.5% of respondents chose this occupation by personal consideration or willingness. Conclusions: The main findings in this research include the overall low coverage of clinical pharmacy services, the low rate of clinical pharmacy service software, hardware, and personnel as well as a wide variance in educational training of pharmacists at county hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The epidemiology of human parechovirus (HPeV) in Asia remains obscure. We elucidated the prevalence, seasonality, type distribution and clinical presentation of HPeV among children in Hong Kong. Methods: A 24-month prospective study to detect HPeV in children ≤36 months hospitalized for acute viral illnesses. Results: 2.3% of the 3911 children examined had HPeV infection, with most (87.5%) concentrated in September-January (autumn-winter). 81.3% were HPeV1 and 12.5% were HPeV4, while HPeV3 was rare (2.5%). HPeV was a probable cause of the disease in 47.7% (42/88), mostly self-limiting including acute gastroenteritis, upper respiratory tract infection and maculopapular rash. A neonate developed severe sepsis-like illness with HPeV3 as the only pathogen detected. A high proportion (60.0%) of children coinfected with HPeV and other respiratory virus(es) had acute bronchiolitis or pneumonia. Six children with HPeV coinfections developed convulsion / pallid attack. Most rash illnesses exhibited a generalized maculopapular pattern involving the trunk and limbs, and were more likely associated with HPeV4 compared to other syndrome groups (36.4% vs. 3.1%, p = 0.011). Conclusions: In Hong Kong, HPeV exhibits a clear seasonality (autumn-winter) and was found in a small proportion (2.3%) of young children (≤36 months) admitted with features of acute viral illnesses. The clinical presentation ranged from mild gastroenteritis, upper respiratory tract infection and febrile rash to convulsion and severe sepsis-like illness. HPeV3, which is reported to associate with more severe disease in neonates, is rare in Hong Kong. HPeV coinfection might associate with convulsion and aggravate other respiratory tract infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: China has high burden on both of tuberculosis (TB) and tobacco use. This study aims to explore the potential link between smoking and TB infection using baseline survey data of a large-scale population-based prospective study in rural China Methods: Between July 1 and Sept 30, 2013, based on the baseline survey of a population-based, prospective study in rural China, the relationship between smoking and TB infection, assessed by interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA), was investigated among the total study population and only among those smokers, respectively. Results: A total of 21,008 eligible rural registered residents (≥ 5 years old) from 4 rural sites were included in the analysis. Ever-smokers were more likely to be QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) positive than never smokers with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.34 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.21–1.49). Among ever smokers, a significant linear dose–response relation was observed between duration of smoking (by years) and QFT positivity (p < 0.001). Stratified analysis suggested that such an association was not influenced by gender and age. Evidence for interaction of smoking status with age was found. Conclusions: Our results provide further evidence to support smoking might increase host susceptibility to TB infection. Populations under high risk of infection, such as elderly smokers, should be prior to TB infection controlling under a premise of community level intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Zoonotic avian influenza poses a major risk to China, and other parts of the world. H5N1 has remained endemic in China and globally for nearly two decades, and in 2013, a novel zoonotic influenza A subtype H7N9 emerged in China. This study aimed to improve upon our current understanding of the spreading mechanisms of H7N9 and H5N1 by generating spatial risk profiles for each of the two virus subtypes across mainland China. Methods and findings: In this study, we (i) developed a refined data set of H5N1 and H7N9 locations with consideration of animal/animal environment case data, as well as spatial accuracy and precision; (ii) used this data set along with environmental variables to build species distribution models (SDMs) for each virus subtype in high resolution spatial units of 1km2 cells using Maxent; (iii) developed a risk modelling framework which integrated the results from the SDMs with human and chicken population variables, which was done to quantify the risk of zoonotic transmission; and (iv) identified areas at high risk of H5N1 and H7N9 transmission. We produced high performing SDMs (6 of 8 models with AUC > 0.9) for both H5N1 and H7N9. In all our SDMs, H7N9 consistently showed higher AUC results compared to H5N1, suggesting H7N9 suitability could be better explained by environmental variables. For both subtypes, high risk areas were primarily located in south-eastern China, with H5N1 distributions found to be more diffuse and extending more inland compared to H7N9. Conclusions: We provide projections of our risk models to public health policy makers so that specific high risk areas can be targeted for control measures. We recommend comparing H5N1 and H7N9 prevalence rates and survivability in the natural environment to better understand the role of animal and environmental transmission in human infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the population structure of a representative collection of 3,133 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates, collected within the framework of a national resistance survey from 2007 in China. Genotyping data indicate that the epidemic strains in China can be divided into seven major complexes, of which 92% belonged to the East Asian (mainly Beijing strains) or the Euro-American lineage. The epidemic Beijing strains in China are closely related to the Beijing B0/W148 strain earlier described in Russia and a large cluster of these strains has spread national wide. The density of Beijing strains is high in the whole of China (average 70%), but the highest prevalence was found North of the Yellow river. The Euro-American lineage consists of three sublineages (sublineage_1, 2, and 3) and is more prevalent in the South. Beijing lineage showed the highest cluster rate of 48% and a significantly higher level of resistance to rifampicin (14%, p<0.001), ethambutol (9%, p = 0.001), and ofloxacin (5%, p = 0.011). Within the Euro-American Lineage, sublineage_3 revealed the highest cluster rate (28%) and presented a significantly elevated level of resistance to streptomycin (44%, p<0.001). Our findings suggest that standardised treatment in this region may have contributed to the successful spread of certain strains: sublineage_3 in the Euro-American lineage may have thrived when streptomycin was used without rifampicin for treatment, while later under DOTS based treatment, in which rifampicin plays a key role, Beijing lineage appears to be spreading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To examine trends in HIV testing, late HIV diagnosis and associated factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Jiangsu province, China. Methods: Four consecutive community-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted among MSM from 2011 to 2014 in eight cities in the province. Participants were recruited from MSM venues and via the internet. HIV bio-behavioral surveys were conducted to collect demographic and behavioral data and measure HIV infection. HIV-infected participants with CD4 counts less than 350 cells/uL were defined as having a late HIV diagnosis. Chi-square trend tests were used to compare temporal changes over the years and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with late diagnosis. Results: A total of 2,441, 2,677, 2,591 and 2,610 participants were enrolled in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. Testing for HIV in the last 12 months decreased over the time period, from 59.9% to 52.5% (p<0.001). Late HIV diagnosis remained high and steady, ranging from 33.3% to 44.2% over the years with no significant change over time (p = 0.418). MSM who were older than 24 years (aOR = 1.748, p = 0.020 for 25–39 years old; aOR = 3.148, p<0.001 for 40 years old or older), were recruited via internet (aOR = 1.596, p = 0.024), and did not have an HIV test in the past 12 months (aOR = 3.385, p<0.001) were more likely to be late diagnosed. Conclusions: Our study showed a plateau in HIV testing among MSM in China, in parallel to high levels of late diagnosis. Emerging and innovative strategies such as HIV self-testing and reaching more MSM by internet, both highly acceptable to MSM in China, may reduce late diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exact prediction of Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemics must improve to establish effective preventive measures in China. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied to establish a highly predictive model of HFRS. Meteorological factors were considered external variables through a cross correlation analysis. Then, these factors were included in the SARIMA model to determine if they could improve the predictive ability of HFRS epidemics in the region. The optimal univariate SARIMA model was identified as (0,0,2)(1,1,1)12. The R2 of the prediction of HFRS cases from January 2014 to December 2014 was 0.857, and the Root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.708. However, the inclusion of meteorological variables as external regressors did not significantly improve the SARIMA model. This result is likely because seasonal variations in meteorological variables were included in the seasonal characteristics of the HFRS itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Hepatitis E virus is one of new threats to blood safety which was usually considered to be transmitted via fecal-oral route. China is one of the hyperendemic regions where frequent outbreaks of hepatitis E are noted. However, the overall prevalence of HEV infection among mainland Chinese blood donors is not clear until now. Method: The peer-reviewed literatures reporting the prevalence of HEV in Chinese blood donors were identified by systematic searching of five electronic databases. The systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement issued in 2009. Data manipulation and statistical analyses were performed by Stata 12.0. Results: Fourteen eligible articles involving 22 independent studies were included. Pooled prevalence of HEV infection biomarkers (anti-HEV IgG, anti-HEV IgM, RNA and antigen) among mainland Chinese blood donors were 29.2%, 1.1%, 0.1% and 0.1%, respectively which were higher than the data reported in other countries. The analysis of HEV genotypes indicated that the most prevalent strains in Chinese blood donors were genotype 1 and 4. Conclusions: Mainland China is indicated with a relatively higher risk of transmission of hepatitis E through transfusion and the screening of blood donors for HEV RNA, especially in HEV-endemic areas, might reduce the potential risk of HEV infection via transfusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]