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Customer-level rooftop photovoltaic (PV) has been widely integrated into distribution systems. In most cases, PVs are installed behind-the-meter (BTM), and only the net demand is recorded. Therefore, the native demand and PV generation are unknown to utilities. Separating native demand and solar generation from net demand is critical for improving grid-edge observability. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed for disaggregating customer-level BTM PV generation using low-resolution but widely available hourly smart meter data. The proposed approach exploits the strong correlation between monthly nocturnal and diurnal native demands and the high similarity among PV generation profiles. First, a joint probability density function (PDF) of monthly nocturnal and diurnal native demands is constructed for customers without PVs, using Gaussian mixture modeling (GMM). Deviation from the constructed PDF is utilized to probabilistically assess the monthly solar generation of customers with PVs. Then, to identify hourly BTM solar generation for these customers, their estimated monthly solar generation is decomposed into an hourly timescale; to do this, we have proposed a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based technique that utilizes hourly typical solar exemplars. Leveraging the strong monthly native demand correlation and high PV generation similarity enhances our approach's robustness against the volatility of customers’ hourly load and enables highly-accurate disaggregation. The proposed approach has been verified using real native demand and PV generation data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In modern distribution systems, load uncertainty can be fully captured by micro-PMUs, which can record high-resolution data; however, in practice, micro-PMUs are installed at limited locations in distribution networks due to budgetary constraints. In contrast, smart meters are widely deployed but can only measure relatively low-resolution energy consumption, which cannot sufficiently reflect the actual instantaneous load volatility within each sampling interval. In this paper, we have proposed a novel approach for enriching load data for service transformers that only have low-resolution smart meters. The key to our approach is to statistically recover the high-resolution load data, which is masked by the low-resolution data, using trained probabilistic models of service transformers that have both high- and low-resolution data sources, i.e., micro-PMUs and smart meters. The overall framework consists of two steps: first, for the transformers with micro-PMUs, a Gaussian Process is leveraged to capture the relationship between the maximum/minimum load and average load within each low-resolution sampling interval of smart meters; a Markov chain model is employed to characterize the transition probability of known high-resolution load. Next, the trained models are used as teachers for the transformers with only smart meters to decompose known low-resolution load data into targeted high-resolution load data. The enriched data can recover instantaneous load uncertainty and significantly enhance distribution system observability and situational awareness. We have verified the proposed approach using real high- and low-resolution load data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fast and accurate load parameter identification has a large impact on power systems operation and stability analysis. This article proposes a novel Imitation and Transfer Q-learning (ITQ)-based method to identify parameters of composite constant impedance-current-power (ZIP) and induction motor (IM) load models. Firstly, an imitation learning process is introduced to improve the exploitation and exploration processes. Then, a transfer learning method is employed to overcome the challenge of time-consuming optimization when dealing with new identification tasks. An associative memory is designed to realize dimension reduction, knowledge learning and transfer between different identification tasks. Agents can exploit the optimal knowledge from source tasks to accelerate the search rate in new tasks and improve solution accuracy. A greedy action selection rule is adopted for agents to balance the global and local search. The performance of the proposed ITQ approach has been validated on a 68-bus test system. Simulation results in multi-test cases verify that the proposed method is robust and can estimate load parameters accurately. Comparisons with other methods show that the proposed method has superior convergence rate and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) enables utilities to obtain granular energy consumption data, which offers a unique opportunity to design customer segmentation strategies based on their impact on various operational metrics in distribution grids. However, performing utility-scale segmentation for unobservable customers with only monthly billing information, remains a challenging problem. To address this challenge, we propose a new metric, the coincident monthly peak contribution (CMPC), that quantifies the contribution of individual customers to system peak demand. Furthermore, a novel multi-state machine learning-based segmentation method is developed that estimates CMPC for customers without smart meters (SMs): first, a clustering technique is used to build a databank containing typical daily load patterns in different seasons using the SM data of observable customers. Next, to associate unobservable customers with the discovered typical load profiles, a classification approach is leveraged to compute the likelihood of daily consumption patterns for different unobservable households. In the third stage, a weighted clusterwise regression (WCR) model is utilized to estimate the CMPC of unobservable customers using their monthly billing data and the outcomes of the classification module. The proposed segmentation methodology has been tested and verified using real utility data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is speculated that higher penetration of inverter-based distributed photo-voltaic (PV) power generators can increase the risk of tripping events due to voltage fluctuations. To quantify this risk utilities need to solve the interactive equations of tripping events for networked PVs in real-time. However, these equations are non-differentiable, nonlinear, and exponentially complex, and thus, cannot be used as a tractable basis for solar curtailment prediction and mitigation. Furthermore, load/PV power values might not be available in real-time due to limited grid observability, which further complicates tripping event prediction. To address these challenges, we have employed Chebyshev's inequality to obtain an alternative probabilistic model for quantifying the risk of tripping for networked PVs. The proposed model enables operators to estimate the probability of interdependent inverter tripping events using only PV/load statistics and in a scalable manner. Furthermore, by integrating this probabilistic model into an optimization framework, countermeasures are designed to mitigate massive interdependent tripping events. Since the proposed model is parameterized using only the statistical characteristics of nodal active/reactive powers, it is especially beneficial in practical systems, which have limited real-time observability. Numerical experiments have been performed employing real data and feeder models to verify the performance of the proposed technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an approximate Reinforcement Learning (RL) methodology for bi-level power management of networked Microgrids (MG) in electric distribution systems. In practice, the cooperative agent can have limited or no knowledge of the MG asset behavior and detailed models behind the Point of Common Coupling (PCC). This makes the distribution systems unobservable and impedes conventional optimization solutions for the constrained MG power management problem. To tackle this challenge, we have proposed a bi-level RL framework in a price-based environment. At the higher level, a cooperative agent performs function approximation to predict the behavior of entities under incomplete information of MG parametric models; while at the lower level, each MG provides power-flow-constrained optimal response to price signals. The function approximation scheme is then used within an adaptive RL framework to optimize the price signal as the system load and solar generation change over time. Numerical experiments have verified that, compared to previous works in the literature, the proposed privacy-preserving learning model has better adaptability and enhanced computational speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold load pick-up (CLPU) has been a critical concern to utilities. Researchers and industry practitioners have underlined the impact of CLPU on distribution system design and service restoration. The recent large-scale deployment of smart meters has provided the industry with a huge amount of data that are highly granular, both temporally and spatially. In this paper, a data-driven framework is proposed for assessing CLPU demand of residential customers using smart meter data. The proposed framework consists of two interconnected layers: 1) At the feeder level, a nonlinear autoregression model is applied to estimate the diversified demand during the system restoration and calculate the CLPU demand ratio. 2) At the customer level, Gaussian mixture models and probabilistic reasoning are used to quantify the CLPU demand increase. The proposed methodology has been verified using real smart meter data and outage cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel data-driven method that determines the daily consumption patterns of customers without smart meters (SMs) to enhance the observability of distribution systems. Using the proposed method, the daily consumption of unobserved customers is extracted from their monthly billing data based on three machine learning models. In the first model, a spectral clustering algorithm is used to infer the typical daily load profiles of customers with SMs. Each typical daily load behavior represents a distinct class of customer behavior. In the second module, a multi-timescale learning model is trained to estimate the hourly consumption using monthly energy data for the customers of each class. The third stage leverages a recursive Bayesian learning method and branch current state estimation residuals to estimate the daily load profiles of unobserved customers without SMs. The proposed data-driven method has been tested and verified using real utility data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose an agent-based hierarchical power management model in a power distribution system composed of several microgrids (MGs). At the lower level of the model, multiple MGs bargain with each other to cooperatively obtain a fair, and Pareto-optimal solution to their power management problem, employing the concept of Nash bargaining solution and using a distributed optimization framework. At the highest level of the model, a distribution system power supplier, e.g., a utility company, interacts with both the cluster of the MGs and the wholesale market. The goal of the utility company is to facilitate power exchange between the regional distribution network consisting of multiple MGs and the wholesale market to achieve its own private goals. The power exchange is controlled through dynamic energy pricing at the distribution level, at the day-ahead and real-time stages. To implement energy pricing at the utility company level, an iterative machine learning mechanism is employed, where the utility company develops a price-sensitivity model of the aggregate response of the MGs to the retail price signal through a learning process. This learned model is then used to perform optimal energy pricing. To verify its applicability, the proposed decision model is tested on a system with multiple MGs, with each MG having different load/generation data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the behavior of a day-ahead (DA) retail electrical energy market with price-based demand response from air conditioning (AC) loads through a hierarchical multiagent framework, employing a machine learning approach. At the top level of the hierarchy, a retailer agent buys energy from the DA wholesale market and sells it to the consumers. The goal of the retailer agent is to maximize its profit by setting the optimal retail prices, considering the response of the price-sensitive loads. Upon receiving the retail prices, at the lower level of the hierarchy, the AC agents employ a ${Q}$ -learning algorithm to optimize their consumption patterns through modifying the temperature set-points of the devices, considering both consumption costs and users’ comfort preferences. Since the retailer agent does not have direct access to the AC loads’ underlying dynamics and decision process (i.e., incomplete information) the data privacy of the consumers becomes a source of uncertainty in the retailer’s decision model. The retailer relies on techniques from the field of machine learning to develop a reliable model of the aggregate behavior of the price-sensitive loads to reduce the uncertainty of the decision-making process. Hence, a multiagent framework based on machine learning enables us to address issues such as interoperability and decision-making under incomplete information in a system that maintains the data privacy of the consumers. We will show that using the proposed model, all the agents are able to optimize their behavior simultaneously. Simulation results show that the proposed approach leads to a reduction in overall power consumption cost as the system converges to its equilibrium. This also coincides with maximization in the retailer’s profit. We will also show that the same decision architecture can be used to reduce peak load to defer/avoid distribution system upgrades under high penetration of photo-voltaic power in the distribution feeder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to uncertainties in generation and load, optimal decision making in electrical energy markets is a complicated and challenging task. Participating agents in the market have to estimate optimal bidding strategies based on incomplete public information and private assessment of the future state of the market, to maximize their expected profit at different time scales. In this paper, we present an agent-based model to address the problem of short-term strategic bidding of conventional generation companies (GenCos) in a power pool. Based on the proposed model, each GenCo agent develops a private probabilistic model of the market (using dynamic Bayesian networks), employs an online learning algorithm to train the model (sparse Bayesian learning), and infers the future state of the market to estimate the optimal bidding function. We show that by using this multiagent framework, the agents will be able to predict and adapt to approximate Nash equilibrium of the market through time using local reasoning and incomplete publicly available data. The model is implemented in MATLAB and is tested on four test case systems: two generic systems with 5 and 15 GenCo agents, and two IEEE benchmarks (9-bus and 30-bus systems). Both the day-ahead (DA) and hour-ahead (HA) bidding schemes are implemented. The results show a drop in market power in the 15-agent system compared to 5-agent system, along with a Pareto superior equilibrium in the HA scheme compared to the DA scheme, which corroborates the validity of the proposed decision making model. Also, the simulations show that introduction of an HA decision making stage as an uncertainty containment tool, leads to a more stable and less volatile price signal in the market, which consequently results in flatter and improved profit curves for the GenCos. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]