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This meta-analysis studies the association of pedagogical processes in early childhood care and education with outcomes in two academic domains: language and literacy as well as mathematics. It synthesizes evidence from 17 longitudinal studies in nine European countries with 16,461 children in regular center-based care spanning the period between ages 3 and 16. Results of a three-level meta-analysis provided small overall effect sizes for both global and domain-specific process quality, and indicated lasting associations with academic development over children's school career (ES = .11, Cohen's d = .22, and ES = .10, Cohen's d = .20). Effects varied by outcome domain, type of process measure, and differences in adopted analyses, with important implications for pedagogical practice and future research., (© 2019 Society for Research in Child Development.)

This study provides a systematic literature review of research in the field of teaching and learning mathematics through Content and Language Integrated Learning (CLIL), Content-Based Instruction (CBI), and English Medium Instruction (EMI). The review aims to examine the most relevant literature with a focus on mathematics and CLIL, CBI, or EMI in Scopus and Web of Science per the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA) guidelines. Based on 151 sources, 52 papers were selected according to predefined selection criteria. The papers were analysed and coded according to the following categories: (1) geographical productivity, (2) diachronic productivity growth, (3) main objectives, (4) methodology, and research design, (5) variables and measurement instruments, (6) context and sample details, and (7) main findings. The results reveal that most of the research analysed has been carried out in the Asian continent, followed by Europe. The analysis of diachronic productivity shows that the study of the application of CLIL, CBI, and EMI programs in the teaching-learning process of mathematics has notably increased in recent years, especially in the last triennium (2020–2022). Regarding the objectives of the selected corpus, the majority aimed at teaching practices and learning processes, and outcomes in mathematics and language proficiency in CLIL, CBI, and/or EMI classrooms. The corpus analysed fits within one or more of the following categories: empirical, qualitative, descriptive, correlational, and cross-sectional. The samples utilized in different studies differ significantly, both in terms of quantity –ranging from one person to 700– and in the educational level being studied, which would be primary, secondary, or tertiary education. The main variables studied in the corpus focus on mathematical competence, language proficiency, teaching practices, teacher training, science competence, and teachers' perceptions. The most widely used instruments have been objective tests, such as questionnaires, together with standardized tests to measure some aspects related to mathematical competence and language proficiency. They are followed by an analysis of documents (academic records, teaching materials, official documents...), participant or non-participant observation, interviews, and video and audio recordings. In summary, in the scientific literature analysed, a positive or neutral view predominates on the effects of the CLIL, CBI, and EMI approaches on the learning of mathematics and the L2. This can be due to methodological issues fundamentally related to the methodology, research design, sample, and measurement instruments. Thus, we must highlight that some of the results from the selected papers must be interpreted with caution. Taking this factor into consideration, further comparative studies on a wider scale are required to examine thoroughly the effects of CLIL, CBI, and EMI on the teaching and learning of mathematics in an L2. Besides, it is important to study in greater depth the different levels of language acquisition since the research analysed shows that these have not been sufficiently addressed in the mathematical field of knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we present a new construction of evaluation codes in the Hamming metric, which we call twisted Reed–Solomon codes. Whereas Reed–Solomon (RS) codes are MDS codes, this need not be the case for twisted RS codes. Nonetheless, we show that our construction yields several families of MDS codes. Further, for a large subclass of (MDS) twisted RS codes, we show that the new codes are not generalized RS codes. To achieve this, we use properties of Schur squares of codes as well as an explicit description of the dual of a large subclass of our codes. We conclude the paper with a description of a decoder, that performs very well in practice as shown by extensive simulation results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an introduction on the histories of science in early modern Europe. The papers here argue that there were indeed histories of mathematics before Jean-Etienne Montucla which are worthy of scholarly attention and that the dismissal of Renaissance histories of science as nothing more than a cloud of fine adjectives and metaphors is a fallacy. Three of the papers in this collection address histories of mathematics, which were written from the late fifteenth century to the early seventeenth century. It also provides a new approach that considers the relationship which humanist culture had with the emerging new sciences.

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper initially discusses recent changes in mathematics education and assessment in England and Wales against the background of research on mathematics performance and assessment. It then reports findings from qualitative research with 10–11 year olds undertaken with the object of exploring the validity of the pilot pencil and paper tests in mathematics developed as part of the assessment programme for the English and Welsh National Curriculum in 1993 and 1994. Fifteen children from across the ’ability‘ range were asked to work through a selection of items in the situation of an individual clinical interview. This enabled in-depth data to be collected about their interpretation of and performance on the items. This paper focuses in particular on items where the ambiguity of the boundary between everyday knowledge and mathematics might be expected to lead to problems for children in interpreting the tasks required of them by the test items. The results show that the nature of the items might well have prevented some of these children, in the context of a paper and pencil testing situation, from demonstrating mathematical capacities and understandings they seem to have possessed. Their initial performance does not always seem to have reflected their underlying competence as demonstrated in the extended interview. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Family resources may play an important role in the wellbeing of older people. In this paper, we examine the association between living arrangement and cognitive decline among people over 65 living in different European countries. The underlined hypothesis is that living with others (i.e. spouse or/and children) vis-à-vis living alone may have a positive role in maintaining cognitive functioning, but also that such beneficial influence varies according to the circumstances. To this end, we used data from the first two waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), which provides indicators of several cognitive functions: orientation, immediate recall, delayed recall, verbal fluency and numeracy. Net of both the potential biases due to the selective attrition and the re-test effects, the evidence shows that the association between living arrangement and cognitive decline depends on the geographical area and on the starting level of cognitive function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outcomes of bargaining over losses, the subject of this paper, have rarely been studied. But experimental studies of related situations, such as those involving bankruptcies or bequests in which the sum of the legal claims that can be made against a bank or firm or estate are greater than their values, have produced strong support for the proportionality principle. To test whether this principle would find support in other situations involving losses we designed an experimental game in which four players start out with differing initial endowments of real money. They are then informed that a certain amount of this resource has to be given back to the experimenter. How should the loss be shared among the agents? This game was run at different locations and under different treatments over a period of almost three years. We found that the proportionality principle was rarely proposed and even less frequently accepted as a solution to this problem. One of the main reasons for this result was that the two players with the smallest endowments opposed most of the proposals which asked them to contribute at least some positive amount of their own initial resource. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecoregionalization is the process by which a territory is classified in similar areas according to specific environmental and climatic factors. The climate and the environment strongly influence the presence and distribution of vectors responsible for significant human and animal diseases worldwide. In this paper, we developed a map of the eco-climatic regions of Italy adopting a data-driven spatial clustering approach using recent and detailed spatial data on climatic and environmental factors. We selected seven variables, relevant for a broad set of human and animal vector-borne diseases (VBDs): standard deviation of altitude, mean daytime land surface temperature, mean amplitude and peak timing of the annual cycle of land surface temperature, mean and amplitude of the annual cycle of greenness value, and daily mean amount of rainfall. Principal Component Analysis followed by multivariate geographic clustering using the k-medoids technique were used to group the pixels with similar characteristics into different ecoregions, and at different spatial resolutions (250 m, 1 km and 2 km). We showed that the spatial structure of ecoregions is generally maintained at different spatial resolutions and we compared the resulting ecoregion maps with two datasets related to Bluetongue vectors and West Nile Disease (WND) outbreaks in Italy. The known characteristics of Culicoides imicola habitat were well captured by 2/22 specific ecoregions (at 250 m resolution). Culicoides obsoletus/scoticus occupy all sampled ecoregions, according to its known widespread distribution across the peninsula. WND outbreak locations strongly cluster in 4/22 ecoregions, dominated by human influenced landscape, with intense cultivations and complex irrigation network. This approach could be a supportive tool in case of VBDs, defining pixel-based areas that are conducive environment for VBD spread, indicating where surveillance and prevention measures could be prioritized in Italy. Also, ecoregions suitable to specific VBDs vectors could inform entomological surveillance strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This paper focuses on the issue of intimate partner violence and, specifically, on the distribution of femicides over time and the existence of copycat effects. This is the subject of an ongoing debate often triggered by the social alarm following multiple intimate partner homicides (IPHs) occurring in a short span of time. The aim of this research is to study the evolution of IPHs and provide a far-reaching answer by rigorously analyzing and searching for patterns in data on femicides. Methods: The study analyzes an official dataset, provided by the system VioGén of the Secretaría de Estado de Seguridad (Spanish State Secretariat for Security), including all the femicides occurred in Spain in 2007-2017. A statistical methodology to identify temporal interdependencies in count time series is proposed and applied to the dataset. The same methodology can be applied to other contexts. Results: There has been a decreasing trend in the number of femicides per year. No interdependencies among the temporal distribution of femicides are observed. Therefore, according to data, the existence of copycat effect in femicides cannot be claimed. Conclusions: Around 2011 there was a clear change in the average number of femicides which has not picked up. Results allow for an informed answer to the debate on copycat effect in Spanish femicides. The planning of femicides prevention activities should not be a reaction to a perceived increase in their occurrence. As a copycat effect is not detected in the studied time period, there is no evidence supporting the need to censor media reports on femicides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autonomous Vehicles (AV) technology is emerging. Field tests on public roads have been on going in several states in the US as well as in Europe and Asia. During the US public road tests, crashes with AV involved happened, which becomes a concern to the public. Most previous studies on AV safety relied heavily on assessing drivers’ performance and behaviors in a simulation environment and developing automated driving system performance in a closed field environment. However, contributing factors and the mechanism of AV-related crashes have not been comprehensively and quantitatively investigated due to the lack of field AV crash data. By harnessing California’s Report of Traffic Collision Involving an Autonomous Vehicle Database, which includes the AV crash data from 2014 to 2018, this paper investigates by far the most current and complete AV crash database in the US using statistical modeling approaches that involve both ordinal logistic regression and CART classification tree. The quantitative analysis based on ordinal logistic regression and CART models has successfully explored the mechanism of AV-related crash, via both perspectives of crash severity and collision types. Particularly, the CART model reveals and visualize the hierarchical structure of the AV crash mechanism with knowledge of how these traffic, roadway, and environmental contributing factors can lead to crashes of various serveries and collision types. Statistical analysis results indicate that crash severity significantly increases if the AV is responsible for the crash. The highway is identified as the location where severe injuries are likely to happen. AV collision types are affected by whether the vehicle is on automated driving mode, whether the crashes involve pedestrians/cyclists, as well as the roadway environment. The method used in this research provides a proven approach to statistically analyze and understand AV safety issues. And this benefit is potential be even enhanced with an increasing sample size of AV-related crashes records in the future. The comprehensive knowledge obtained ultimately facilitates assessing and improving safety performance of automated vehicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the scientific publication productivity, registered in Web of Science (WoS) databases in two fields of science, Mathematics and Physics, for authors from countries of South East Europe (SEE). Using Revealed Publication Advantage (RPA) indicator calculated for SEE countries, policy makers could get insight into the scientific publication productivity of SEE countries, in these two scientific fields, compared with the world average. The scientific output in Mathematics and Physics from the SEE region represents majority of the overall scientific output in every particular country in this region. The scientific output in Mathematics and Physics from the SEE region is comparable with those of other research groups in the world. When analysing Web of Science publications by field of research, Mathematics represents 2.1% of the total worldwide scientific production, while Physics accounts for 8.8%, giving a total of 10.9% for Physics and Mathematics combined -- over 1,547,187 publications in the period 2005-2010. In South East Europe, Mathematics is 3.5% of the total scientific production, while Physics is 9.6% - bringing the total for Physics and Mathematics to 13.1%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an inventory study of progress made in developing producer price indices for services in Europe. The report makes a brief historical look at the situation from 1999 and the impact of the requirements of the systems of national accounts is discussed. The report will also describe both the guiding/determining instruments (such as existing manuals, handbooks, international regulations in the field, country-specific development reports) and the official and unofficial institutions that promote and make possible cooperation and information exchange. There are several reasons why some European countries have more developed producer price index (PPI) for services than others. The country-by-country inventory of the present situation in Europe summarises the results of the questionnaire sent to 23 European countries in February/March this year. It is presented in the Annex to this paper. The findings clearly demonstrate that different countries in Europe are at different stages in the development of PPIs for services. The current development process can be shortened and made more effective with the help of international exchange of information and international cooperation within both the official institutions for cooperation and the unofficial networks. The development process in countries with relatively little experience must, however, be allowed to develop at their own pace because the conditions may vary. In conclusion, this report outlines some general wishes and recommendations: - increase of national financial resources in the field; - higher status for PPI for services in the price index family; - increased cooperation between experts in the field of price statistics and those in the field of national accounts. Efforts to increase awareness of the value of PPI for services as deflators for production values in the SNA (System for National Accounts) are necessary so that their value is recognised among the government financial officers. Developments in Sweden, which can be of interest for other countries, are presented in the concluding section of this report. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to examine the iconography on a set of star charts by Albrecht Dürer (1515), and celestial globes by Caspar Vopel (1536) and Christoph Schissler (1575). The iconography on these instruments is conditioned by strong traditions which include not only the imagery on globes and planispheres (star charts), but also ancient literature about the constellations. Where this iconography departs from those traditions, the change had to do with humanism in the sixteenth century. This "humanistic" dimension is interwoven with other concerns that involve both "social" and "technical" motivations. The interplay of these three dimensions illustrates how the iconography on celestial charts and globes expresses some features of the shared knowledge and shared culture between artisans, mathematicians, and nobles in Renaissance Europe.

The article offers information on Computability in Europe (CiE) which is an informal network of European scientists working on computability theory such as foundations, technical development and applications. CiE aims to deliver advance on theoretical understanding of what can and cannot be computed by any means of computations in its scientific vision performed with discrete or continuous data. It states that CiE 2006 focused on the variety of logical approaches to all kinds of computational barriers which focuses on the hypercomputable ones.

This paper offers a caution that emphasis upon the importance of mathematics in recent historiography is in danger of obscuring the historical fact that, for the most part, mathematics was not seen as important in the pre-modern period. The paper proceeds by following a single case study, and in so doing offers the first account of the mathematical writings of Jean Fernel (1497-1558), better known as a leading medical innovator of the 16th century. After establishing Fernel's early commitment to mathematics, and attempt to forge a career as a cosmographer, it goes on to explain his abandonment of mathematics for a career in medicine. The 'mathematization of the world picture' is usually explained in terms of the perceived usefulness of mathematics, but Fernel's case shows that for many pre-modern thinkers, mathematics was not regarded as a useful pursuit. The paper should serve as a reminder, therefore, that the take-up of mathematics by natural philosophers was by no means inevitable, but had to be carefully managed by early modern mathematical practitioners. The case of Fernel indicates that perhaps he was not the only would-be mathematical practitioner to abandon mathematics in favor of a calling that was more appreciated by contemporaries.

This paper is devoted to an outline of certain aspects of international scientific cooperation and exchange between Eastern and Western European countries from 1950 to 1989, with an emphasis on mathematics, biochemistry and neuroscience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores written calculation methods for division used by pupils in England (n = 276) and the Netherlands (n = 259) at two points in the same school year. Informal strategies are analysed and progression identified towards more structured procedures that result from different teaching approaches. Comparison of the methods used by year 5 (Group 6) pupils in the two countries shows greater success in the Dutch approach, which is based on careful progression from informal strategies to more structured and efficient procedures. This success is particularly notable for the girls in the sample. For the English pupils, whose written solutions largely involved the traditional algorithm, the discontinuity between the formal computation procedure and informal solution strategies presents difficulties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indirect methods for the indirect estimation of reference intervals are increasingly being used, especially for validation of reference intervals, as they can be applied to routine patient data. In this study, we compare three statistically different indirect methods for the verification and validation of reference intervals in eight laboratories distributed throughout Europe. The RefLim method is a fast and simple approach which calculates the reference intervals by extrapolating the theoretical 95 % of non-pathological values from the central linear part of a quantile-quantile plot. The Truncated Maximum Likelihood (TML) method estimates a smoothed kernel density function for the distribution of the mixed data, for which it is assumed that the "central" part of the distribution represents the healthy population. The refineR utilizes an inverse modelling approach. This algorithm identifies a model that best explains the observed data before transforming the data with the Box-Cox transformation. We show that the different indirect methods each have their advantages but can also lead to inaccurate or ambiguous results depending on the approximation of the mathematical model to real-world data. A combination of different methodologies can improve the informative value and thus the reliability of results. Based on routine measurements of four enzymes alkaline phosphatase (ALP), total amylase (AMY), cholinesterase (CHE) and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) in adult women and men, we demonstrate that some reference limits taken from the literature need to be adapted to the laboratory's particular local and population characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Reducing inequalities in health is a great challenge for public health, but how relative and absolute inequalities in mortality respond to changes in mortality by socioeconomic group is not well understood. Methods We derived arithmetically what combinations of changes and starting levels of mortality by socioeconomic group produce narrowing, and what combinations produce widening of relative and absolute inequalities in mortality. We then determined empirically how often these scenarios actually occur with data on inequalities in cause-specific mortality in five European countries spanning four decades (1970-2010). Results Changes in the rate ratio depend exclusively on the ratio of relative mortality change between socioeconomic groups, whereas changes in the rate difference depend on whether the ratio of relative mortality change between socioeconomic groups is larger or smaller than the rate ratio. This implies that, in case of declining mortality and faster relative mortality decline in higher socioeconomic groups, the rate difference will increase until the rate ratio becomes equal to the ratio of relative mortality decline, but will then start to decline. In the most common scenario in our data set (starting rate ratio above 1.00 and faster relative mortality decline in higher than lower socioeconomic groups), the rate ratio indeed always goes up but the rate difference goes down in about half of all cases, sometimes after a period of growth. Conclusions A narrowing of absolute inequalities occurs under a wider range of conditions than a narrowing of relative inequalities in mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The algorithms used in Arabic and medieval European mathematics for extracting cube roots are studied with respect to algebraic structure and use of external memory (dust board, table, paper). They can be separated into two distinct groups. One contains methods used in the eastern regions from the 11th century, closely connected to Chinese techniques, and very uniform in structure. The other group, showing much wider variation, contains early Indian methods and techniques developed in central and western parts of the Arabic areas and in Europe. This study supports hypotheses previously formulated by Luckey and Chemla on an early scientific connection between China and Persia. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

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Path dependent securities depend on current and past values of underlying state variables. Consequently, the usual backward evaluation technique is difficult to apply since state variable values existing earlier in real time are unknown. This paper develops a series of propositions which makes possible the pricing of a certain class of both American and European versions of these path dependent securities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is the most abundant cervid in Europe and, as such, has a considerable impact over several human activities. Accurate roe deer population size estimates are useful to ensure their proper management. We tested 3 methods for estimating roe deer abundance (drive counts, pellet-group counts, and camera trapping) during two consecutive years (2012 and 2013) in the Apennines (Italy) in order to assess their precision and applicability. During the study period, population density estimates were: drive counts 21.89±12.74 roe deer/km2 and pellet-group counts 18.74±2.31 roe deer/km2 in 2012; drive counts 19.32±11.12 roe deer/km2 and camera trapping 29.05±7.48 roe deer/km2 in 2013. Precision of the density estimates differed widely among the 3 methods, with coefficients of variation ranging from 12% (pellet-group counts) to 58% (drive counts). Drive counts represented the most demanding method on account of the higher number of operators involved. Pellet-group counts yielded the most precise results and required a smaller number of operators, though the sampling effort was considerable. When compared to the other two methods, camera trapping resulted in an intermediate level of precision and required the lowest sampling effort. We also discussed field protocols of each method, considering that volunteers, rather than technicians, will more likely be appointed for these tasks in the near future. For this reason, we strongly suggest that for each method managers of population density monitoring projects take into account ease of use as well as the quality of the results obtained and the resources required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The Accelerated Development of VAccine beNefit-risk Collaboration in Europe (ADVANCE) is a public private collaboration aiming to develop and test a system for rapid benefit-risk (B/R) monitoring of vaccines, using existing electronic healthcare record (eHR) databases in Europe. Part of the data in such sources is missing due to incomplete follow-up hampering the accurate estimation of vaccination coverage. We compared different methods for coverage estimation from eHR databases; naïve period prevalence, complete case period prevalence, period prevalence adjusted for follow-up time, Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis and (adjusted) inverse probability weighing (IPW). Methods: We created simulation scenarios with different proportions of completeness of follow-up. Both completeness independent and dependent from vaccination date and status were considered. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and relative difference between the estimated and true coverage were used to assess the performance of the different methods for each of the scenarios. We included data examples on the vaccination coverage of human papilloma virus and pertussis component containing vaccines from the Spanish BIFAP database. Results: Under completeness independent from vaccination date or status, several methods provided estimates with bias close to zero. However, when dependence between completeness of follow-up and vaccination date or status was present, all methods generated biased estimates. The IPW/CDF methods were generally the least biased. Preference for a specific method should be based on the type of censoring and type of dependence between completeness of follow-up and vaccination. Additional insights into these aspects, might be gained by applying several methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Nabiximols (THC/CBD Oromucosal Spray, Sativex) is used as an add-on therapy to treat moderate to severe spasticity of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Objectives: To examine the impact of physiotherapy (PT) programs on effectiveness and persistence of nabiximols treatment in people with MS-related spasticity. Methods: This is an observational multicenter study with a follow-up period of 12 weeks, conducted in routine care settings in Italy. Patients with moderate to severe MS-related spasticity who started nabiximols were included. Spasticity was evaluated by the patient-rated 0–10 numerical rating scale (NRS). Clinical data were collected at baseline (T0), 4 weeks (T1) and 12 weeks (T2) months after enrollment. Results: A total of 297 MS patients were selected, 290 completed the 3 months follow-up period. Mean NRS scores were 7.6 ± 1.1 at T0, 5.8 ± 1.4 at T1 and 5.5 ± 1.5 at T2. At T1, 77% of patients reached ≥20% improvement (initial response, IR); 22% reached ≥30% improvement (clinically relevant response, CRR). At T1, patients undergoing PT had a higher probability to reach CRR (Odds Ratio = 2.6 95% CI 1.3–5.6, p = 0.01). Nabiximols was discontinued in 30/290 (10.3%) patients at T1 (early discontinuers) and in 71/290 (24.5%) patients at T2 (late discontinuers). The probability of being late discontinuers was reduced in patients undergoing PT (Hazard Ratio = 0.41; 95% CI 0.23–0.69, p = 0.001). Conclusions: Our real-life study confirms nabiximols’ effectiveness in MS-related spasticity and suggests that the association of a PT program may improve overall response and persistence to nabiximols treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen tremendous advances in the scientific study of networks, as more and larger data sets of relationships among nodes have become available in many different fields. This has led to pathbreaking discoveries of near-universal network behavior over time, including the principle of preferential attachment and the emergence of scaling in complex networks. Missing from the set of network analysis methods to date is a measure that describes for each node how its relationship (or links) with other nodes changes from one period to the next. Conventional measures of network change for the most part show how the degrees of a node change; these are scalar comparisons. Our contribution is to use, for the first time, the cosine similarity to capture not just the change in degrees of a node but its relationship to other nodes. These are vector (or matrix)-based comparisons, rather than scalar, and we refer to them as “rewiring” coefficients. We apply this measure to three different networks over time to show the differences in the two types of measures. In general, bigger increases in our rewiring measure are associated with larger increases in network density, but this is not always the case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable development goals are used as a guidance for strategies development on local, regional and national levels. The importance of including young people in this complex process is recognized in all relevant documents (i.e. Agenda 21), however it is not an easy task to elicit opinions and preferences from the youth. Furthermore, the assessment of the sustainable development goals itself presents a challenge for the noisy data and nonlinear relationships in data. Popular approach is fuzzy set models where expert knowledge is presented with comprehensible rules; however expert knowledge elicitation takes a long time too. Several studies proposed an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system approach that combines the fuzzy set theory to model expert knowledge with neural networks for inferring rules and membership functions from data to assess the sustainable development performance. We base our assumptions that ANFIS can be used to predict the importance of sustainable development pillars from the demographic data of young people. For this purpose, we have conducted an online survey on sustainable development goals opinions and importance of young people in Serbia. The sample of 386 respondents has been split into a training sample of 300 instances (to generate membership functions and fuzzy rules) and a testing sample of 86 instances to predict the importance of the three pillars. We have conducted a trace-driven simulation test to validate the results of the proposed ANFIS model. Results of the study provided insights into how the young people in Serbia assess the importance of sustainable development goals. Secondly, the results suggest that ANFIS can be applied to predict values of importance of the three sustainable development pillars with the relative error of Rel Err < 5%. It must be noted that the considered model could be further improved by using training samples with more data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Value of information (VOI) analysis provides information on opportunity cost of a decision in healthcare by estimating the cost of reducing parametric uncertainty and quantifying the value of generating additional evidence. This study is an application of the VOI methodology to the problem of choosing between home telemonitoring and nurse telephone support over usual care in chronic heart failure management in the Netherlands. Methods: The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and the expected value of partially perfect information (EVPPI) analyses were based on an informal threshold of €20K per quality-adjusted life-year. These VOI-analyses were applied to a probabilistic Markov model comparing the 20-year costs and effects in three interventions. The EVPPI explored the value of decision uncertainty caused by the following group of parameters: treatment-specific transition probabilities between New York Heart Association (NYHA) defined disease states, utilities associated with the disease states, number of hospitalizations and ER visits, health state specific costs, and the distribution of patients per NYHA group. We performed the analysis for two population sizes in the Netherlands—patients in all NYHA classes of severity, and patients in NYHA IV class only. Results: The population EVPI for an effective population of 2,841,567 CHF patients in All NYHA classes of severity over the next 20 years is more than €4.5B, implying that further research is highly cost-effective. In the NYHA IV only analysis, for the effective population of 208,003 patients over next 20 years, the population EVPI at the same informal threshold is approx. €590M. The EVPPI analysis showed that the only relevant group of parameters that contribute to the overall decision uncertainty are transition probabilities, in both All NYHA and NYHA IV analyses. Conclusions: Results of our VOI exercise show that the cost of uncertainty regarding the decision on reimbursement of telehealth interventions for chronic heart failure patients is high in the Netherlands, and that future research is needed, mainly on the transition probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite considerable air pollution prevention and control measures that have been put into practice in recent years, outdoor air pollution remains one of the most important risk factors for health outcomes. To identify the potential research gaps, we conducted a scoping review focused on health outcomes affected by outdoor air pollution across the broad research area. Of the 5759 potentially relevant studies, 799 were included in the final analysis. The included studies showed an increasing publication trend from 1992 to 2008, and most of the studies were conducted in Asia, Europe, and North America. Among the eight categorized health outcomes, asthma (category: respiratory diseases) and mortality (category: health records) were the most common ones. Adverse health outcomes involving respiratory diseases among children accounted for the largest group. Out of the total included studies, 95.2% reported at least one statistically positive result, and only 0.4% showed ambiguous results. Based on our study, we suggest that the time frame of the included studies, their disease definitions, and the measurement of personal exposure to outdoor air pollution should be taken into consideration in any future research. The main limitation of this study is its potential language bias, since only English publications were included. In conclusion, this scoping review provides researchers and policy decision makers with evidence taken from multiple disciplines to show the increasing prevalence of outdoor air pollution and its adverse effects on health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tetraploid wheat species Triticum turgidum and Triticum timopheevii are morphologically similar, and misidentification of material collected from the wild is possible. We compared published sequences for the Ppd-A1, Ppd-B1 and Ppd-G1 genes from multiple accessions of T. turgidum and T. timopheevii and devised a set of four polymerase chain reactions (PCRs), two specific for Ppd-B1 and two for Ppd-G1. We used these PCRs with 51 accessions of T. timopheevii and 20 of T. turgidum. Sixty of these accessions gave PCR products consistent with their taxon identifications, but the other eleven accessions gave anomalous results: ten accessions that were classified as T. turgidum were identified as T. timopheevii by the PCRs, and one T. timopheevii accession was typed as T. turgidum. We believe that these anomalies are not due to errors in the PCR tests because the results agree with a more comprehensive analysis of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms, which similarly suggest that these eleven accessions have been misclassified. Our results therefore show that the accepted morphological tests for discrimination between T. turgidum and T. timopheevii might not be entirely robust, but that species identification can be made cheaply and quickly by PCRs directed at the Ppd-1 gene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

England’s national Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme advocates stepped care as its organizational delivery of psychological therapies to common mental health problems. There is limited evidence regarding the efficacy of stepped care as a service delivery model, heterogeneity of definition and differences in model implementation in both research and routine practice, hence outcome comparison in terms of effectiveness of model is difficult. Despite sound evidence of the efficacy of low intensity interventions there appears to be a perpetuation of the notion that severity and complexity should only be treated by a high intensity intervention through the continuation of a stratified care model. Yet no psychotherapy treatment is found to be more superior to another, and not enough is known about what works for whom to aid the matching of treatment decision. In the absence of understanding precise treatment factors optimal for recovery, it may be useful to better understand the impact of a service delivery model, and whether different models achieve different outcomes. This study aims to contribute to the discussion regarding the stepped care definition and delivery, and explores the impact on clinical outcomes where different types of stepped care have been implemented within the same service. An observational cohort study analysed retrospective data (n = 16,723) over a 4 year period, in a single IAPT service, where delivery changed from one type of stepped care model to another. We compared the outcomes of treatment completers with a stratified care model and a progression care model. We also explored the assumption that patients who score severe on psychological measures, and therefore are potentially complex, would achieve better outcomes in a stratified model. Outcomes in each model type were compared, alongside baseline factor variables. A significant association was observed between a recovery outcome and model type, with patients 1.5 times more likely to recover in the progression delivery model. The potential implications are that with a progression stepped care model of service delivery, more patients can be treated with a lower intensity intervention, even with initial severe presentations, ensuring that only those that need high intensity CBT or equivalent are stepped up. This could provide services with an effective clinical model that is efficient and potentially more cost effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Hopkins Symptom Checklist in 25 items (HSCL-25) helps to assess anxiety and depression in Primary Care. Anxiety and depression show considerable overlap in primary care. This self-administrated questionnaire is valid, reliable and ergonomic in the original US version. We have translated it into French. The aim of this study was to estimate the test characteristics of the HSCL-25, in its French version (F-HSCL-25), by comparing it to the Present State Examination-9 French version (F-PSE-9) and by determining its internal validity and dimensions. Method: Outpatients from three French General Practice settings (rural, semi-rural and urban) were recruited: approximately 20,000 outpatients among 17 GPs. Two groups were formed: F-HSCL-25 ≥1.75 and F-HSCL-25 <1.75. A validated cut-off score of > 1.75 was considered to indicate a clinically relevant level of symptoms of depression and anxiety. In order to obtain two balanced groups, a different method of randomization was chosen for each group. The F-PSE-9 was randomly administered to 1 in 2 patients in the F-HSCL-25 ≥1.75 group, and to 1 in 16 in the (much larger) F-HSCL-25 <1.75 group. The diagnostic performance was assessed and the test results obtained from both groups were compared with their F-PSE-9 results. Results: Of the 1126 patients who completed the F-HCL-25, 886 joined the F-HSCL-25 <1.75 group and 240 the F-HSCL-25 ≥1.75 group. The overall prevalence of depression, using the F-HSCL-25, was 21% in these medical practices. The diagnostic performance of the F-HSCL-25 versus the F-PSE-9, the external criteria were as follows: Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 69.8%, Negative Predictive Value (NPV) 87%; Sensitivity 59.1%, and Specificity 91.4%. The Principal Component Analysis showed that F-HSCL-25 is a one-dimensional tool (anxiety and depression dimensions combined) with a Cronbach Alpha of 0.93. Conclusion: The F-HSCL-25 is an appropriate diagnostic tool for anxiety and depression in primary care in France due to its high specificity and high NPV. The HSCL-25 scale has a high eigenvalue. This pilot study will be extended throughout Europe; however, preliminary evidence suggests that the HSCL-25 is a reliable and suitable diagnostic tool for primary care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: International comparisons of trajectories of depressive symptoms in older adults are scarce and longitudinal associations with co-morbid conditions not fully understood. Objective: To compare trajectories of depressive symptoms from participants living in 10 European Countries and identify ages at which the associations of co-morbid conditions with these trajectories become more relevant. Methods: Latent growth curve models were fitted to depressive symptoms scores from participants of the Survey of Health and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) initiative (combined n = 21,253) and co-morbid conditions modelled as time varying covariates. To identify the ages at which the association between co-morbid conditions and depressive symptoms was significant the Johnson-Neyman (JN) technique was used. Results: The shape of depressive symptoms trajectories varied between countries, and was highly dependent on modelling decisions. The association between the average number of co-morbidities reported over time and depressive symptoms was consistent and positive across countries and ages. Conclusion: International differences in ageing-related trajectories of depressive symptoms emerged. The longitudinal association of co-morbid conditions with trajectories of depressive symptoms was found, but the results overall suggest that modelling decisions could greatly influence the outcomes, and should thus be interpreted with caution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many disciplines of scholarship are interested in the Relative Age Effect (RAE), whereby age-banding confers advantages on older members of the cohort over younger ones. Most research does not test this relationship in a manner consistent with theory (which requires a decline in frequency across the cohort year), instead resorting to non-parametric, non-directional approaches. In this article, the authors address this disconnect, provide an overview of the benefits associated with Poisson regression modelling, and two managerially useful measures for quantifying RAE bias, namely the Indices of Discrimination and Wastage. In a tutorial-like exposition, applications and extensions of this approach are illustrated using data on professional soccer players competing in the top two tiers of the “Big Five” European football leagues in the search to identify paragon clubs, leagues, and countries from which others may learn to mitigate this form of age-discrimination in the talent identification process. As with OLS regression, Poisson regression may include more than one independent variable. In this way we test competing explanations of RAE; control for unwanted sources of covariation; model interaction effects (that different clubs and countries may not all be subject to RAE to the same degree); and test for non-monotonic versions of RAE suggested in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The objective of the present study was to evaluate effectiveness, complications and cost-effectiveness of any surgical or non-surgical treatment for radius or ulna fractures in elderly patients. Secondary objectives were to analyze present treatment traditions of distal radius fractures (DRF) in Sweden and to calculate resource usage for its treatment. Methods and findings: The assessment contains a systematic review of clinical and health economic studies comparing treatment options for radius or ulna fractures. The results regarding the effectiveness of the treatments are summarized in meta-analyses. In addition, the assessment contains a cost analysis for different treatment options commonly used for DRF care, and an analysis of registry data on the incidence and treatment of DRF. In total 31 randomized controlled trials were included in meta-analyses. When comparing functional outcome for plate fixation versus non-surgical treatment for DRF, there were no clinically important differences at one-year follow-up (mean difference [MD], -3.29, 95% CI, -7.03; 0.44). Similar results were found when comparing plating and percutaneous methods with respect to functional outcome (standardized mean difference [SMD], -0.07, 95% CI, -0.21; 0.07) and grip strength (MD, -3.47, 95% CI, -11.21; 4.28). There were no differences for minor complications, (risk difference [RD], -0.01, 95% CI, -0.07; 0.05) whereas major complications were less common for the percutaneous group, (RD, 0.02, 95% CI, 0.02; 0.03). Given the low number of studies, the evidence above was rated as moderate certainty. The cost for plate fixation versus plaster cast was estimated to 1698 compared to 137 US dollars. For DRF, plate fixation increased in Sweden between 2005 and 2013, and was the most common surgical method in 2013. Conclusions: Surgical treatment of moderately displaced distal radius fractures in elderly patients offers no clear benefit compared to non-surgical treatment. Plating procedures have become more common during the second millennium and involve higher costs and higher risk of major complications than percutaneous options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional generators in power grids are steadily substituted with new renewable sources of electric power. The latter are connected to the grid via inverters and as such have little, if any rotational inertia. The resulting reduction of total inertia raises important issues of power grid stability, especially over short-time scales. With the motivation in mind to investigate how inertia reduction influences the transient dynamics following a fault in a large-scale electric power grid, we have constructed a model of the high voltage synchronous grid of continental Europe. To assess grid stability and resilience against disturbance, we numerically investigate frequency deviations as well as rates of change of frequency (RoCoF) following abrupt power losses. The magnitude of RoCoF's and frequency deviations strongly depend on the fault location, and we find the largest effects for faults located on the support of the slowest mode—the Fiedler mode—of the network Laplacian matrix. This mode essentially vanishes over Belgium, Eastern France, Western Germany, northern Italy and Switzerland. Buses inside these regions are only weakly affected by faults occuring outside. Conversely, faults inside these regions have only a local effect and disturb only weakly outside buses. Following this observation, we reduce rotational inertia through three different procedures by either (i) reducing inertia on the Fiedler mode, (ii) reducing inertia homogeneously and (iii) reducing inertia outside the Fiedler mode. We find that procedure (iii) has little effect on disturbance propagation, while procedure (i) leads to the strongest increase of RoCoF and frequency deviations. This shows that, beyond absorbing frequency disturbances following nearby faults, inertia also mitigates frequency disturbances from distant power losses, provided both the fault and the inertia are located on the support of the slowest modes of the grid Laplacian. These results for our model of the European transmission grid are corroborated by numerical investigations on the ERCOT transmission grid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous research has focussed on individual-level determinants of nursing home admission (NHA), although substantial variation in the prevalence of NHA between European countries suggests a substantial impact of country of residence. The aim of this analysis was to assess individual-level determinants and the role of country of residence and specifically a country`s public institutional long-term care infrastructure on proxy-reported NHA in the last year of life. Methods: We analysed data from 7,018 deceased respondents (65+) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (2004–2015, 16 countries) using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression analysis in order to model proxy-reported NHA. Results: In total, 14% of the general older population utilised nursing home care in the last year of life but there was substantial variation across countries (range = 2–30%). On the individual-level, need factors such as functional and cognitive impairment were the strongest predictors of NHA. In total, 18% of the variance of NHA was located at the country-level; public expenditure on institutional care strongly affected the chance of NHA in the last year of life. Conclusion: On the individual-level, the strong impact of need factors indicated equitable access to NHA, whereas differences in public spending for institutional care indicated inequitable access across European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Romani people are a significant minority in Europe counting about 10 million individuals scattered throughout the continent. They are a migratory group originating from Northwestern India. Their exodus from India occurred approximately 1000–1500 years ago. The migration route of the Romani people was reconstructed with the help of cultural anthropology, linguistics and historical records. Their migration made them through Central Asia, Middle East and the Caucasus region, prior to the arriving into Europe. Yet the significance of these regions, especially of the Caucasus, in Roma ancestry was a rather neglected topic. Contribution of the Caucasus and further affected regions to the ancestry of Roma was investigated based on genome-wide autosomal marker data. 158 European Roma samples and 41 populations from the Caucasus region, from Middle East, Central Asia and from South Asia were considered in our tests. Population structure and ancestry analysis algorithms were applied to investigate the relationship of Roma with these populations. Identical by descent DNA segment analyses and admixture linkage disequilibrium based tests were also applied. Our results suggest that the Caucasus region plays also a significant role in the genetic legacy of Romani people besides the main sources, Europe and South Asia, previously investigated by other population genetic studies. The Middle East and Central Asia seems slightly less important but far from negligible in connection with the sources of Roma ancestry. Our results point out that the Caucasus region and altogether the area of the Caspian and Black Seas had a significant role in the migration of Romani people towards Europe and contributed significantly to the genetic legacy of Roma rival to the European and Indian main sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this research was to determine the existence of relative age effect (RAE) in five European soccer leagues and their second-tier competitions. Even though RAE is a well-known phenomenon in professional sports environments it seems that the effect does not decline over the years. Moreover, additional information is required, especially when taking into account second-tier leagues. Birthdates from 1,332 first-tier domestic players from France, England, Spain, Germany and Italy and birthdates from 1,992 second-tier domestic players for the 2014/2015 season were taken for statistical analysis. In addition to standard statistical tests, the data were analyzed using econometric techniques for count data using Poisson and negative binomial regressions. The results obtained confirmed a biased distribution of birthdates in favor of players born earlier in the calendar year. For all of the five first-tier soccer leagues there was an unequal distribution of birthdates (France χ2 = 40.976, P<0.001; England χ2 = 21.892, P = 0.025; Spain χ2 = 24.690, P = 0.010; Germany χ2 = 22.889, P = 0.018; Italy χ2 = 28.583, P = 0.003). The results for second-tier leagues were similar (France χ2 = 46.741, P<0.001; England χ2 = 27.301, P = 0.004; Spain χ2 = 49.745, P<0.001; Germany χ2 = 30.633, P = 0.001; Italy χ2 = 36.973, P<0.001). Econometric techniques achieved similar results: estimated effect of month of birth, i.e., long-term RAE on players’ representativeness, is negative (statistically significant at the 1% level). On average, one month closer to the end of the year reduces the logs of expected counts of players by 6.9%. Assuming this effect as linear, being born in the month immediately before the cut-off date (i.e., December/August), reduces the logs of expected counts of players by approximately 75.9%. Further, ID (index of discrimination, that is, the ratio between the expected counts of players born in the middle of the first and the twelfth month of the selection year) is 2.13 and 2.22 for the first- and second-tier, respectively. In other words, in the top five European first-tier and second-tier leagues, one should expect the number of players born in the first month of the calendar year to be twice the number of those born in the last month. The RAE in the second-tiers is the same as in the first-tiers, so it appears that there is no second chance for later born players. This reduces the chances to recover talented players discarded in youth simply because of lower maturity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The invasive yellow-legged hornet, Vespa velutina nigrithorax Lepeletier, 1836 (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), is native to Southeast Asia. It was first detected in France (in the southwest) in 2005. It has since expanded throughout Europe and has caused significant harm to honeybee populations. We must better characterize the hornet’s flight capacity to understand the species’ success and develop improved control strategies. Here, we carried out a study in which we quantified the flight capacities of V. velutina workers using computerized flight mills. We observed that workers were able to spend around 40% of the daily 7-hour flight tests flying. On average, they flew 10km to 30km during each flight test, although there was a large amount of variation. Workers sampled in early summer had lower flight capacities than workers sampled later in the season. Flight capacity decreased as workers aged. However, in the field, workers probably often die before this decrease becomes significant. During each flight test, workers performed several continuous flight phases of variable length that were separated by rest phases. Based on the length of those continuous flight phases and certain key assumptions, we estimated that V. velutina colony foraging radius is at least 700 m (half that in early summer); however, some workers are able to forage much farther. While these laboratory findings remain to be confirmed by field studies, our results can nonetheless help inform V. velutina biology and control efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While health service provisioning for the chronic condition Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) often involves a network of organisations and professionals, most evidence on the relationships between the structures and processes of service provisioning and the outcomes considers single organisations or solo practitioners. Extending Donabedian’s Structure-Process-Outcome (SPO) model, we investigate how differences in quality of life, effective coverage of diabetes, and service satisfaction are associated with differences in the structures, processes, and context of T2D services in six regions in Finland, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Spain, and UK. Methods: Data collection consisted of: a) systematic modelling of provider network’s structures and processes, and b) a cross-sectional survey of patient reported outcomes and other information. The survey resulted in data from 1459 T2D patients, during 2011–2012. Stepwise linear regression models were used to identify how independent cumulative proportion of variance in quality of life and service satisfaction are related to differences in context, structure and process. The selected context, structure and process variables are based on Donabedian’s SPO model, a service quality research instrument (SERVQUAL), and previous organization and professional level evidence. Additional analysis deepens the possible bidirectional relation between outcomes and processes. Results: The regression models explain 44% of variance in service satisfaction, mostly by structure and process variables (such as human resource use and the SERVQUAL dimensions). The models explained 23% of variance in quality of life between the networks, much of which is related to contextual variables. Our results suggest that effectiveness of A1c control is negatively correlated with process variables such as total hours of care provided per year and cost of services per year. Conclusions: While the selected structure and process variables explain much of the variance in service satisfaction, this is less the case for quality of life. Moreover, it appears that the effect of the clinical outcome A1c control on processes is stronger than the other way around, as poorer control seems to relate to more service use, and higher cost. The standardized operational models used in this research prove to form a basis for expanding the network level evidence base for effective T2D service provisioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: One of the key elements to enhance the uptake of evidence in public health policies is stimulating cross-sector collaboration. An intervention stimulating collaboration is a policy game. The aim of this study was to describe the design and methods of the development process of the policy game ‘In2Action’ within a real-life setting of public health policymaking networks in the Netherlands, Denmark and Romania.Methods: The development of the policy game intervention consisted of three phases, pre intervention, designing the game intervention and tailoring the intervention.Results: In2Action was developed as a role-play game of one day, with main focus to develop in collaboration a cross-sector implementation plan based on the approved strategic local public health policy.Conclusions: This study introduced an innovative intervention for public health policymaking. It described the design and development of the generic frame of the In2Action game focusing on enhancing collaboration in local public health policymaking networks. By keeping the game generic, it became suitable for each of the three country cases with only minor changes. The generic frame of the game is expected to be generalizable for other European countries to stimulate interaction and collaboration in the policy process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The burden of disease framework facilitates the assessment of the health impact of diseases through the use of summary measures of population health such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). However, calculating, interpreting and communicating the results of studies using this methodology poses a challenge. The aim of the Burden of Communicable Disease in Europe (BCoDE) project is to summarize the impact of communicable disease in the European Union and European Economic Area Member States (EU/EEA MS). To meet this goal, a user-friendly software tool (BCoDE toolkit), was developed. This stand-alone application, written in C++, is open-access and freely available for download from the website of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). With the BCoDE toolkit, one can calculate DALYs by simply entering the age group- and sex-specific number of cases for one or more of selected sets of 32 communicable diseases (CDs) and 6 healthcare associated infections (HAIs). Disease progression models (i.e., outcome trees) for these communicable diseases were created following a thorough literature review of their disease progression pathway. The BCoDE toolkit runs Monte Carlo simulations of the input parameters and provides disease-specific results, including 95% uncertainty intervals, and permits comparisons between the different disease models entered. Results can be displayed as mean and median overall DALYs, DALYs per 100,000 population, and DALYs related to mortality vs. disability. Visualization options summarize complex epidemiological data, with the goal of improving communication and knowledge transfer for decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72–0.79) to 0.88 (0.84–0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69–0.83) to 0.84 (0.76–0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73–0.83) to 0.91 (0.85–0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Neurogenic bladder dysfunction represents one of the most common and devastating sequelae of traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI). As early prediction of bladder outcomes is essential to counsel patients and to plan neurourological management, we aimed to develop and validate a model to predict urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI.Methods and Findings: Using multivariate logistic regression analysis from the data of 1,250 patients with traumatic SCI included in the European Multicenter Spinal Cord Injury study, we developed two prediction models of urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI and performed an external validation in 111 patients. As predictors, we evaluated age, gender, and all variables of the International Standards for Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury (ISNCSCI) and of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM). Urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after SCI were assessed through item 6 of SCIM. The full model relies on lower extremity motor score (LEMS), light-touch sensation in the S3 dermatome of ISNCSI, and SCIM subscale respiration and sphincter management: the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (aROC) was 0.936 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.922-0.951). The simplified model is based on LEMS only: the aROC was 0.912 (95% CI: 0.895-0.930). External validation of the full and simplified models confirmed the excellent predictive power: the aROCs were 0.965 (95% CI: 0.934-0.996) and 0.972 (95% CI 0.943-0.999), respectively. This study is limited by the substantial number of patients with a missing 1-y outcome and by differences between derivation and validation cohort.Conclusions: Our study provides two simple and reliable models to predict urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI. Early prediction of bladder function might optimize counselling and patient-tailored rehabilitative interventions and improve patient stratification in future clinical trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After stone removal, accurate analysis of urinary stone composition is the most crucial laboratory diagnostic procedure for the treatment and recurrence prevention in the stone-forming patient. The most common techniques for routine analysis of stones are infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction and chemical analysis. The aim of the present study was to assess the quality of urinary stone analysis of laboratories in Europe. Nine laboratories from eight European countries participated in six quality control surveys for urinary calculi analyses of the Reference Institute for Bioanalytics, Bonn, Germany, between 2010 and 2014. Each participant received the same blinded test samples for stone analysis. A total of 24 samples, comprising pure substances and mixtures of two or three components, were analysed. The evaluation of the quality of the laboratory in the present study was based on the attainment of 75% of the maximum total points, i.e. 99 points. The methods of stone analysis used were infrared spectroscopy (n = 7), chemical analysis (n = 1) and X-ray diffraction (n = 1). In the present study only 56% of the laboratories, four using infrared spectroscopy and one using X-ray diffraction, fulfilled the quality requirements. According to the current standard, chemical analysis is considered to be insufficient for stone analysis, whereas infrared spectroscopy or X-ray diffraction is mandatory. However, the poor results of infrared spectroscopy highlight the importance of equipment, reference spectra and qualification of the staff for an accurate analysis of stone composition. Regular quality control is essential in carrying out routine stone analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]