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Dynamical prediction of monsoon rainfall has been an important topic and a long-standing issue in both research and operational community. This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction skill of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall using the hindcast record from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC CSM1.1m, during the period 1983–2019. The model exhibits reasonable skills for predicting the EASM rainfall at all lead times with the skill dropping dramatically from the shortest lead time of about 2 weeks (LM0) to 1-month lead (LM1), and then fluctuating remarkably throughout 2-month to 12-month lead times. Over the EASM domain, the rapid decline of the S2S rainfall prediction skill from LM0 to LM1 is mainly caused by the inferior skills over Central China in July and over Northeast China in August. Composite analysis based on hindcast records suggest that these inferior skills are directly tied to the model's difficulties in capturing above-normal precipitation over eastern Central China and Northeast China in the respective months, which are further shown to be associated with anomalous weakening and meridional movement of the Northwestern Pacific subtropical high and the activity of large-scale teleconnection pattern hard to be predicted over northeastern Asia in summer, respectively. These findings inform the intrinsic limits of the S2S predictability of the EASM rainfall by a dynamical model, and strongly suggest that the level of confidence placed upon S2S forecasts should be stratified by large-scale circulation anomalies known to significantly affect the prediction skill, e.g., the subtropical high and high-latitude teleconnection patterns for summer monsoon rainfall prediction in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Space-based measurements, such as the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite, provide global observations of the column-averaged CH4 concentration (XCH4). Due to the irregular observations and data gaps in the retrievals, studies on the spatial and temporal variations of regional atmospheric CH4 concentrations are limited. In this paper, we mapped XCH4 data over monsoon Asia using GOSAT and TROPOMI observations from April 2009 to December 2021 and analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern of atmospheric CH4 variations and emissions. The results show that atmospheric CH4 concentrations over monsoon Asia have long-term increases with an annual growth rate of roughly 8.4 ppb. The spatial and temporal trends of XCH4 data are significantly correlated with anthropogenic CH4 emissions from the bottom-up emission inventory of EDGAR. The spatial pattern of gridded XCH4 temporal variations in China presents a basically consistent distribution with the Heihe–Tengchong Line, which is mainly related to the difference in anthropogenic emissions in the eastern and western areas. Using the mapping of XCH4 data from 2019 to 2021, this study further revealed the response of atmospheric CH4 concentrations to anthropogenic emissions in different urban agglomerations. For the urban agglomerations, the triangle of Central China (TCC), the Chengdu–Chongqing City Group (CCG), and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) show higher CH4 concentrations and emissions than the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and nearby areas (BTH). The results reveal the spatial and temporal distribution of CH4 concentrations and quantify the differences between urban agglomerations, which will support further studies on the drivers of methane emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Yellow Sea, located at the intersection of the Eurasian continent and North Pacific Ocean at mid-latitudes, is a sensitive area subjected to the joint actions of the ocean, land, and monsoons. On its southern shore, loess and paleosol sedimentary sequences were widely developed during the last interglacial period, which is of great significance for revealing patterns of climate change and dynamic conditions. In this paper, we focus on the Zhifu section (ZFS) on Zhifu Island within the Shandong Province of China. The optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating method was used to construct our chronological framework. Grain size and its endmember (EM) components were then analyzed; EM1 is a clay component EM, which represents a weak dynamic environment and strong weathering pedogenesis, while EM2 and EM3 are silt and very fine sand component EMs, respectively, representing a strong dynamic environment and weak weathering pedogenesis. Maximum EM1, mean grain size, clay content, and pH values occur in the paleosol layers (ZF4, ZF6, and ZF8), with minimum values in the loess layers (ZF5 and ZF7); EM3 values show the opposite pattern. This indicates that the ZF4, ZF6, and ZF8 layers represent warm and humid environments with abundant precipitation, where the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was enhanced, corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a, 5c, and 5e. In contrast, ZF5 and ZF7 represent sub-warm and humid environments with less precipitation, where the EASM was weakened, corresponding to MIS 5b and 5d. Among these stages, MIS5e is the warmest and wettest. These climatic events reveal the pattern of climate fluctuation over a ten-thousand-year timescale; they are synchronous with climate changes recorded in other geological repositories, such as cave stalagmites in southern China and sea-level fluctuations in the Yellow-Bohai Sea, which result from changes in global solar radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Tree rings are widely used in global change research based on the accurate dating capabilities, climate sensitivity and wide distribution of samples. In the context of global warming, the response of tree growths in north–south transition zones to climate change is one of the hot issues in Dendroecology. The research results found that trees' growth had different responses to May–June temperature and precipitation on the north and south of the mountain. Therefore, we analyzed the relationship between tree ring and a regional hydrothermal composite factor and reconstructed its variation. The variations agree with other drought series and represent the drought variation in central and eastern monsoon regions, and may provide better understanding of drought variation and service for agricultural production. Tree ring data from the southern boundary of Chinese Pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) distribution where is the southern warm temperate margin, the paper analyzes the response of climate factors along north–south direction to tree growth. The results show that temperature and precipitation in May–June and relative moisture from March to June are main limiting factors on trees growth; however, the temperature in the south of the mountains and the moisture in the north of the mountains have relatively greater influence on trees' growth. Additionally, we also found that the regional scPDSIMJ (that is scPDSI in May–June) was the most significant and stable factor limiting tree growth to be used for reconstruction. The reconstructed scPDSIMJ revealed that there were 29 extremely dry years and 30 extremely wet years during 1801–2016, and it could represent the drought variation in central and eastern monsoon region. The variation exists in good agreement with the reconstructed PDSI for Mt. Shennong and the drought/wetness series in Zhengzhou. Further research found that the droughts of May–June in central China were mainly impacted by local temperature and moisture (including precipitation, soil moisture, potential evaporation and water pressure), and then by the northern Pacific Ocean and the northern Atlantic Ocean. These results may provide better understanding of May–June drought variation and service for agricultural production in central China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is one of the most significant increasing areas for summer precipitation extremes in China. In this paper, the number of very heavy precipitation days (R20day) is selected as a representative variable to explore the probable causes of abnormal changes in summer precipitation extremes in recent decades by using the gridded 0.25° × 0.25° observation dataset of CN05.1, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 with a horizontal resolution of 2.5° × 2.5° and NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) V5 with a horizontal resolution of 2.0° × 2.0°. The onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon was early (late), and the R20day in summer was more (less) on both interannual and interdecadal scales. In recent decades, the East Asian summer monsoon and the western North Pacific monsoon weakened, and the R20day in the GBA increased. When the Eurasian teleconnection pattern is in the positive (negative) phase, positive (negative) height anomalies occur in Mongolia and North Central China, and negative (positive) height anomalies occur in South China, which enhances (weakens) vertical upward movements and the south wind anomaly in the lower troposphere in South China, resulting in strong (weak) humidity and more (less) R20day in the GBA. The influences of the Silk Road teleconnection pattern, East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern, North Pacific decadal oscillation and western Pacific warm pool strength on R20day are only significant on an interdecadal scale. The North Pacific gyre oscillation has significant effects on the interdecadal change and weakly significant effects on the interannual variation of R20day in the GBA. On an interannual scale, the south-north oscillation of sea surface temperature in the North Pacific and Indian Ocean dipole plays a significant role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three major points of population migration toward the WHL occurred at 5200, 3800, and 2800 cal BP, which correspond to the seesaw changes of precipitation in western and eastern China. [Display omitted] How various peoples crossed geographical barriers, were affected by climate change and human-made technologies comprise some of the most interesting quandaries in the history of cultures. This paper considers the Hu line, which is a major boundary between population centres and different environments in China. The boundary became evident approximately 11,400 years ago; however, evidence suggests that people crossed through at 5200, 3800, and 2800 cal a BP, facilitating the increases of the trans-Eurasian exchange. The timings of the crossings correspond to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon that triggers seesaw changes of precipitation in western and eastern China. This analysis demonstrates that climate change on a millennial-to-centennial scale can have a profound influence on population distribution with long-term consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a new decadal resolution stalagmite δ18O record covering 10.4–6.5 ka BP from Kulishu cave in Beijing, north China is presented in combination with the published stalagmite δ18O record covering 10.4–14.0 ka BP in the same cave. Five significant monsoon collapses were identified around 11.5, 11.0, 10.0, 9.4, and 8.2 ka BP as well as three smaller ones around 10.3, 9.0, and 8.6 ka BP. The weak monsoon episodes around 8.6 and 8.2 ka BP form the two-step structure of the 8.2 ka event. All monsoon collapses, coeval with the cooling in northern high-latitude records, are correlated with Lakes Agassiz-Ojibway outbursts. Thus, our data support the idea of freshwater forcing of abrupt climate anomalies during the early Holocene. Nevertheless, the decreased irradiance together with freshwater outburst may account for the 9.2/9.3 ka event, which is expressed more significantly in low-latitude records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an assemblage of diverse floodplain facies of reworked loess (facies b, c) in a Middle Pleistocene monsoonal setting of the Hanzhong Basin, central China. The vertical and lateral sedimentary sequences show changing energy conditions. Apart from the highest energy in the channel facies (facies a), a relatively high energy floodplain environment (facies b) prevailed in waterlogged conditions, with small, laterally migrating (sub)channels. Facies b generally interfingers with aggrading horizontal sheets of overbank deposits in alluvial pools and swamps in a floodplain with much lower energy (facies c), in which phases of stability (soil formation) occasionally interrupted overbank deposition. Reworked loess forms the main part of the floodplain deposits. The paleosols are considered to have been formed under low hydrodynamic conditions in an interglacial environment. These interglacial conditions follow the commonly assumed glacial conditions of channel facies a. The sedimentary successions in the floodplain show a recurrent composition and cyclicity between wet and dry floodplain sedimentation terminated by stability with soil formation. The cyclic rhythm of stacked high- and low-energy floodplain sediments is attributed to varied intensity of different hydrodynamic flooding events that may have been due to changing monsoonal rainfall or simple intrinsic fluvial behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme summer precipitation often associated with flash floods has devastating impact on the local economies and livelihood of millions of people over East China. Tracking down the drivers of those extreme events will help to understand their formation mechanisms and to improve forecasts. Here the synoptic patterns associated with summer extreme precipitation events over East China during 1961-2018 have been identified systematically and quantitatively using a circulation clustering method. The results show that regional events over East China are dominated by the Eastern Asian summer monsoon associated Meiyu front, landfalling tropical cyclones and low-pressure vortices. Most sub-regions have seen increasing trends of extreme rainfall events during the past 6 decades with comparable contributions from the two main drivers. There was a decreasing trend over the North China Plain driven by the lowlevel southeasterly winds. Plain Language Summary Closely linked to flash floods, extreme precipitation is one of the high impacts but low probability weather phenomena that challenge modern numerical predictions. However, models are generally more skillful in predicting synoptic weather systems than precipitation itself. Taking East China as an example, this paper demonstrates the links between extreme precipitation events and synoptic weather systems using circulation clustering. Two major weather systems, the Eastern Asian Summer Monsoon and landfalling tropical cyclones are responsible for most extreme precipitation events (about 70%) over East China during the summer season. If models can accurately predict the strength and position of these weather systems, there may be enhanced potential of predicting regional precipitation extremes. Such implications are not regionally limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phase Two of the Integrative Monsoon Frontal Rainfall Experiment (IMFRE-II) was conducted over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the period 16 June to 19 July 2020. This paper provides a brief overview of the IMFRE-II field campaign, including the multiple ground-based remote sensors, aircraft probes, and their corresponding measurements during the 2020 mei-yu period, as well as how to use these numerous datasets to answer scientific questions. The highlights of IMFRE-II are: (1) to the best of our knowledge, IMFRE-II is the first field campaign in China to use ground-based, airborne, and spaceborne platforms to conduct comprehensive observations over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; and (2) seven aircraft flights were successfully carried out, and the spectra of ice particles, cloud droplets, and raindrops at different altitudes were obtained. These in-situ measurements will provide a "cloud truth" to validate the ground-based and satellite-retrieved cloud and precipitation properties and quantitatively estimate their retrieval uncertainties. They are also crucial for the development of a warm (and/or cold) rain conceptual model in order to better understand the cloud-to-rain conversion and accretion processes in mei-yu precipitation events. Through an integrative analysis of ground-based, aircraft, and satellite observations and model simulations, we can significantly improve our cloud and precipitation retrieval algorithms, investigate the microphysical properties of cloud and precipitation, understand in-depth the formation and dissipation mechanisms of mei-yu frontal systems, and improve cloud microphysics parameterization schemes and model simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the local and non-local climatic effects of wetter arid areas of Northwestern China (ANWC) in summer using a fully coupled climate model. In response to soil moisture increase, the local air temperature significantly decreases, and precipitation increases in summer. The wetter ANWC results in a warmer and rainless climate over the Central part of North China Plain (CNCP). While the influence of increasing soil moisture on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) precipitation is negligible due to the high altitude. A cooler climate over ANWC leads to an abnormal descending motion occurring. Meanwhile, an anomalous high pressure and an abnormal anticyclonic circulation occurs in 500 hPa over the west of ANWC. Correspondingly, a huge anomalous cyclone circulation occurs over the northeastern part of China and Mongolia, which can hinder the northward movement of the East Asian summer Monsoon (EASM) and reduce the water vapor transport into Central China Plain. As a result, the weakened EASM thus leads to rainless over CNCP. As soil moisture increases over ANWC is stronger, the magnitudes of the influence on the atmospheric field become larger. This study highlights the wetter ANWC effect on local climate and provides more information about the mechanism of wetter ANWC remote effect on non-local climate. • This paper examines the local and non-local climatic effects of wetter arid areas of Northwestern China (ANWC) in summer using a fully coupled climate model. • It finds that the wetter ANWC can result in a warmer and rainless climate over the Central part of North China Plain (CNCP) through a complex atmospheric circulation response. • A cooler climate leads to an abnormal descending motion occurring over ANWC. • A huge anomalous cyclone circulation over the northeastern part of China and Mongolia can block the East Asian summer Monsoon northward and decrease the water vapor transport into Central China Plain. • This study highlights the wetter ANWC effect on local climate and provides more information about the mechanism of wetter ANWC remote effect on non-local climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Samples of hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes in precipitation collected and analyzed during the summer monsoon in 2017 and 2018 in Chengdu are reported in this paper. Increasing (decreasing) trends of isotope values (δD and δ18O) occur from May to June (September to October), and the valleys occur from July to August. The correlation between δD and δ18O for both precipitation events and monthly average precipitation is significant, with high R² values (≥0.98). The differences in regression lines may be due to the comprehensive influence of moisture sources, transport path and sub-cloud processes. Combining the d-excess values of precipitation and air mass trajectories generated by the HYSPLIT model, precipitation with a low (high) d-excess value and a more (less) negative δ18O corresponds to moisture from ocean (inland) sources. The δ18O–temperature (T) and δ18O–precipitation (P) correlations are not significant and vary greatly among different periods, which may be attributed to the mutual masking of different effects and the influence of atmospheric circulation processes. The results imply that the negative values in biological and geological proxies may be related to warmer climate, higher precipitation and a larger contribution of oceanic monsoon precipitation, but cannot indicate the changes in temperature and precipitation quantifiably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The roles of moisture sources and transport in intraseasonal precipitation variabilities during the preflood season over South China are complex and different. In this paper, ERA‐Interim reanalysis data that were collected four times daily from 1979 to 2017 are used to analyse the variation and influence of moisture transport in intraseasonal precipitation during the preflood season over South China. Using the Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, fixed atmospheric moisture sources are defined: land area source (LD source), Indian Ocean source (IO source), Pacific Ocean source (PO source), South China Sea source (SCS source), and South China source (SC source). Sea source moisture transport accounts for more than 75% of the total precipitation during the preflood season, which is the most important moisture source in South China. For April, southeasterly moisture transport, which includes PO source and SCS source moisture transports, is the major moisture transport over South China. Then, the IO source and SCS source precipitation increased significantly during May. During June, the IO source precipitation accounted for 43.75% of the total precipitation, thus dominating precipitation over South China. In addition, there is a significant difference in the interdecadal variation in the preflood season precipitation before and after the Indian summer monsoon onset. Before the Indian summer monsoon onset, the land‐sea thermal contrast decreased, which led to a significant interdecadal reduction in the IO source, PO source, and SCS source moisture transports. After the Indian summer monsoon onset, the increase in IO source moisture transport is the primary cause of the interdecadal increase in precipitation over South China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The statistical characteristics of precipitation play an extremely important role in the risk assessment of drought and flood disasters and water resource management. In this paper, the precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP) and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were used to analyse the spatiotemporal variation in precipitation concentration characteristics in China from 1960 to 2015. In addition, the cross-wavelet transform was used to analyse the possible dependencies and spatial characteristics between these three precipitation concentration indices (PCD, PCP and PCI) and monsoon indices (East Asian summer monsoon index, EASMI; South Asian summer monsoon index, SASMI; and South China Sea summer monsoon index, SCSSMI) of nine river basins in China. The results show that the spatial distribution of precipitation concentration indices in China has obvious north-south and east-west variability. China's precipitation concentration indices are generally declining, with weak volatility. Among these indices, the PCD (P < 0.05) and PCI (P < 0.01) have decreased significantly at rates of − 0.005/10 year and − 0.006/10 year, respectively, while there has been no obvious decrease in the PCP. Compared with the PCD before 1978, the PCD in the rainy season after 1978 has decreased. In most areas, the rainy season is concentrated in July every year; however, the rainy season has been delayed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and has advanced mainly in the other basins. The PCI has declined since 1978, indicating a decreasing contribution of heavy precipitation to the total annual precipitation, but this change in the PCI has occurred mainly at high-value stations (PCI > 0.7), and the PCI at low-value stations has increased. Most of China's precipitation concentration indices and monsoon indices, as well as the NWRB, have small-scale (2–4 years) or medium-scale (12–15 years) oscillation periods. The oscillation periods between the precipitation concentration indices and monsoon indices in the Yangtze and Pearl River basins are more significant than those in other basins. The results of this study can help to understand the differences among the precipitation concentration characteristics in different basins in China and the intrinsic relationship between these characteristics and the summer monsoon and provide a reference for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The systematic bias of the estimated average temperature using daily Tmax and Tmin records relative to the standard average temperature of four time-equidistant observations and its effect on the estimated trend of long-term temperature change have not been well understood. This paper attempts to evaluate the systematic bias across mainland China using the daily data of national observational stations. The results revealed that the positive bias of annual mean temperature was large, reaching 0.58°C nationally on average; regional average bias was lowest in the northwest arid region and highest in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau; the bias was low in spring and summer and high in autumn and winter, reaching its lowest point in mid- and late May and highest point in early November. Furthermore, the bias showed a significant upward trend in the past 50 years, with a rising rate of 0.021°C (10 yr)−1, accounting for about 12% of the overall warming as estimated from the data of the observational network; the largest positive trend bias was found in the northwest arid region, while the east monsoon region experienced the smallest change; the most remarkable increase of the bias occurred after early 1990s. These results indicate that the customarily applied method to calculate daily and monthly mean temperature using Tmax and Tmin significantly overestimates the climatological mean and the long-term trend of surface air temperature in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, 34 western track typhoons making landfall over China during the period of 2006–2016 from Jun. to Oct. are taken as research objects. They are divided into strong and weak monsoon influenced categories according to the East Asian summer monsoon index. Using precipitation product that was derived from hourly precipitation observed at automatic weather stations (AWS) in China and retrievals from CMORPH [CPC (Climate Prediction Center) morphing technique] satellite data, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis products (JRA-55) and Blackbody brightness temperature (TBB) data from FengYun 2E (FY-2E) satellite, precipitation intensity and distribution characteristics of strong monsoon influenced typhoons. In addition, the weak monsoon influenced typhoons was compared through composite analysis. Furthermore, to explore the water vapor conditions, dynamic factors, thermal structure, development conditions of mesoscale convective systems, and long-term typhoon maintenance mechanisms of typhoons under both conditions. This research is attempted to obtain the regularity of influences exerted on typhoon precipitation intensity and distribution by summer monsoon, and the possible influencing mechanisms of summer monsoon on typhoon precipitation. Results show that the stronger (weaker) the monsoon flow is, the stronger (weaker) the precipitation intensity of post-landfall western typhoon. Monsoon provides a sufficient amount of water vapor through direct moisture channel. The stronger monsoon flow is, the more obvious the coupling of low-level convergence and upper-level divergence, and thus provides a stronger lifting for typhoon precipitation. A strong monsoon condition is more conducive to the genesis and development of mesoscale convection system. A strong monsoon condition is also favorable for the maintenance of post-landfall typhoon's warm core structure, thereby prolonging the precipitation through delaying the decay of typhoons. All these factors lead up to the influences on precipitation of typhoons by summer monsoon directly or indirectly. • Strong monsoon flow does lead to a significant increase and asymmetry in precipitation. • Stronger monsoon flow provides stronger lifting for typhoon precipitation through more obvious coupling of low-level convergence and upper-level divergence. • A strong monsoon condition is more conducive to the genesis and development of mesoscale convection system. • A strong monsoon condition can prolong the precipitation through delaying the decay of landfall typhoons by the maintenance of warm core structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 4.2 ka event was a period of global drought and climate cooling linked to the widespread disruption of Neolithic culture. However, the detailed climatic changes during this period are not completely understood. In this paper, we report a high-resolution pollen record for the Dayanghu wetland in the Zhejiang region of southeastern China, which we use to infer mean annual precipitation (MAP) fluctuations during the period spanning 4600–4000 calendar years before present (cal. yr BP). There was a long-term trend of decreasing MAP during this interval, consistent with weakening of the East Asian Summer Monsoon since the mid-Holocene. This trend was punctuated by episodes of relatively high MAP at 4350–4320, ca. 4260, and 4220–4200 cal. yr BP, and extreme droughts at 4200 and 4150 cal. yr BP. We propose that solar activity promoted El Niño events and contributed to dramatic MAP fluctuations in the Dayanghu wetland. La Niña events and negative-phase intervals of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation may have been responsible for the extreme drought at 4200–4150 cal. yr BP. In summary, we propose a close relationship between MAP and solar forcing, with short-term enhanced solar activity increasing the intensity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and contributing to increasing decadal variability in the inner tropical Pacific, which ultimately leads to increased precipitation variability in southeast China. The results improve our understanding of the detailed climatic features of the 4.2 ka event. • High-resolution pollen record for ca. 4.2 ka for the Zhejiang region, China. • Pollen-based mean annual precipitation was quantitatively reconstructed. • Long-term droughts tended to occur during 4600–4000 cal. yr BP. • La Niña-dominated ENSO contributed to a catastrophic drought at 4200–4150 cal. yr BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The abrupt weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during Younger Dryas (YD) has been attributed to freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic ocean and resultant Northern Hemisphere cooling. Recent studies have found that sea ice variability in the Nordic Sea during the YD exerted a great influence upon the northern high-latitude climate. However, the influence of sea ice upon EASM evolution during YD event remains unclear. In this paper, we report two precisely-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records from the EASM-dominated region of central China. Our records archive abrupt changes in EASM variability during the YD event. Initially, there was a significant strengthening of the EASM during the mid-YD following the gradually increased Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Later this trend reversed at ∼12.15 ka due to northern high-latitude sea ice fluctuations and a consequent reduction of AMOC. At the YD termination, abrupt intensification of the EASM was synchronous with the rapid decline of sea-ice and recovery of the AMOC indicating that sea ice variability was a significant influence on high latitude climate and EASM variation during the YD. • A new speleothem δ18O record show significant EASM strengthening during mid-YD. • Mid-YD oscillation in EASM linked with NH sea ice variability. • Abrupt EASM intensification at YD termination synchronous with the rapid decline of sea ice. • Drier interval following the YD termination in central China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Salawusu River Valley cuts through the Mu Us Desert in north central China, and lies at the interface of the East Asian Summer and Winter Monsoonal regions. Exposed at numerous locations in the valley side are extensive late Quaternary deposits, consisting of interbedded aeolian sands, fluvio-lacustrine units and palaeosols. Due to the importance of the location in potentially elucidating both summer and winter monsoonal regimes, and the quality of the sedimentary record, the region has a rich history of study, and yet even within the Holocene sequence, many conflicting interpretations have arisen based on studies on different sections. This paper aims to synthesize and explore these differences by exploring the lateral continuity of the Holocene sequences along a ~ 45 km reach of the valley, and presenting new, detailed physical and geochemical analyses of three sections, focusing on the lacustrine Holocene Dagouwan Formation. The absence of the lacustrine unit at several locations confirms that rather than representing a single lake, the Dagouwan Formation instead represents a series of palaeolakes, probably at least partially hydrologically isolated from each other by aeolian sands. All begin with sand-dominated deposits during the early−/mid-Holocene, which is interpreted as the result of abundant sand-supply to the north and west, under the influence of an enhanced East Asian Winter Monsoon, and all switch to silt-dominated, more carbonate-rich deposits during the mid−/late-Holocene, which is attributed to an enhanced East Asian Summer Monsoon bringing loessic silts from the Chinese Loess Plateau to the east and south. The timing of this change, perhaps as late as 5.5 ka, supports the idea of a relatively enhancement late mid-Holocene of the summer monsoonal circulation in the region. However, despite the proximity of the sections and consistent analytical approaches, marked differences between the sections occur in all proxies studied. The timing and rate of the switch from sand- to silt-dominated lacustrine deposition varies between the sites by as much as 2000 years within just a few kilometres of each other, and at some sites the switch was gradual, whereas at others it was very rapid. Similar dramatic variations are also seen with organic carbon content, carbonate content, C:N ratio, and especially the δ13C isotopic ratio. These point to the lake basins behaving very differently, and emphasize that consideration must be given to the local geomorphology and palaeolimnological evolution of individual sections. • Differences in lacustrine Holocene monsoon records in northern China are explored. • The occurrence of the lakes is geomorphologically, not climatologically, controlled. • Different sections of similar units represent different lakes with varied histories. • Consistent changes in sediment suggest mid-Holocene decline of winter monsoon. • Study of individual sections or proxies cannot be used to infer regional climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates air pollution spillover effects in Chinese cities. Estimation of this spillover effect is complicated because neighboring cities share similar business/pollution cycles, and changes in wind direction can be frequent. To circumvent these empirical challenges, we propose a new approach exploiting spatial and temporal variations in PM2.5 concentrations for major cities in China's Eastern Monsoon Region during the monsoon season. We find large pollution spillover effects. Estimates based on our preferred model specification suggest that a city's average PM2.5 concentration increases by 0.33 (or 0.26) units during the winter (or summer) monsoon season, if PM2.5 concentrations in cities upwind of this city increase by one unit. Estimated spillover effects in plain and non-plain regions are 14%–16% larger and 45%–71% smaller, respectively, than the baseline estimates. The percentage contributions of PM2.5 pollution from upwind cities to local PM2.5 levels vary by region and can be as large as 50%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Holocene hydrological regime on the Heixiazi Island is critical for understanding the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) for the island's climate-sensitive location on the northern fringe of the EASM domain. In this paper, a marsh depression on the central island was selected to reconstruct the locally hydrological variation and to discuss its indications for the Holocene EASM evolution. This work is based on multi-proxy (magnetic susceptibility, grain size, loss-on-ignition, and carbonate content) analyses of 22 modern sedimentary samples with a water-level gradient of 0–66 cm and 100 cored sedimentary samples covering last ~ 9.0 ka BP. The proxies' hydrological significance was previously interpreted by the 22 modern samples using linear regression equations to construct their relationships to water-level changes. Among these proxies, the magnetic susceptibility, carbonate content, as well as the Md and sand fraction of grain size exhibit high-level relationships against the water-level changes with R2 > 0.6. Thus, these four proxies' linear-regression equations were selected and used on the 100 cored samples, and the Holocene water-level changes in the studied depression were quantitatively reconstructed. It shows that two relatively high water-level stages with strengthened EASM occurred during 8.0–4.5 ka BP and 3.0–1.4 ka BP, which were alternated by three low water-level stages with declined EASM during ~ 9.0–8.0 ka BP, 4.5–3.0 ka BP, and 1.4–0 ka BP, respectively. Among these fluctuations, the highest water-level stage with most strengthened EASM which is defined as the Holocene Monsoon Maximum occurred during 6.4–4.5 ka BP. Such a new evolution pattern of the EASM can be further supported by a large variety of records from monsoon-margin regions. We suggest the Holocene EASM evolution was generally associated with the thermal conditions in both the inner Eurasia landmass and the West Pacific Ocean, with an exception of the weak EASM before 8.0 ka BP due to the enhanced Siberia High with the dominance of the Eurasia ice sheet in the early Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Maritime Continent (MC) is an important region where the Tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean interact with each other via "the atmospheric bridge" and a key region for the interaction between the Asian and Australian monsoons. Using the NCEP/NCAR and CMAP monthly mean reanalysis over the period of 1979-2012, the interdecadal variations of diabatic forcing over the key region of the Maritime Continent and its possible relations with the East Asian summer monsoon have been investigated in the present paper. Our results show that climate variations in the Maritime Continent is particularly significant in the area of95-145°E, l0°S-10°N, which is thus defined as the key area of the MC (i.e., KMC area). Without the input of latent heat release in the atmosphere, distinct interdecadal change of diabatic heating is found to exist from 1979 to 2012; it intensified before 1980s and peaked in the late 1980s and weakened after this period. By analyzing each individual component that contributes to the diabatic heating in the KMC area, surface latent heat flux and net long-wave radiation in the atmosphere are found to be the two dominant components. With negative diabatic heating anomalies over KMC, there will be more precipitation on islands and less precipitation over sea, and more rainfall around the equator, which is in correspondence with the convergence center around the equator in the KMC area . Along the meridional-vertical section averaged between 115-1 20°E, the well-defined vertical circulation anomalies are observed with the ascending branches over KMC and the area around 30°N respectively, and the descending branch over the South China Sea. Water vapor transports from the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea to eastern China to benefit the positive precipitation anomalies. The meridional-vertical circulation in East Asia plays a critical role in linking the interdecadal variability of diabatic heating over the KMC and East Asian summer monsoon anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Eocene was an interval of climate evolution, when the extreme high temperatures of the earliest Cenozoic gave way to a global cooling trend. Fine-grained lacustrine sediments of Eocene age from northeastern China represent an excellent archive to study long-term environmental and climatic changes at high-resolution. The Huadian Basin is a Cenozoic, fault-bounded basin in Jilin Province, northeastern China. Though small in area, it contains numerous oil shale- and coal-bearing layers, which provide an abundant Middle to Late Eocene palynoflora. Eighty-five palynomorph genera and one hundred palynomorph species were identified in the Huadian Formation, allowing to distinguish 4 palynozones. The nearest living relatives of the recovered palynomorph taxa suggest the presence of subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forests during deposition of the Huadian Formation. Using the coexistence approach (CA), we calculated seven paleoclimatic parameters, which indicate a subtropical warm and humid climate with a mean annual temperature above 13.6 °C and a mean annual precipitation of at least 887 mm. However, the climate became cooler and drier during the transition from the lower Oil Shale Member to the upper Carbonaceous Shale Member. Palaeoclimatic data from the various Middle and Late Eocene basins of northeastern China (i.e., the Huadian, Fushun, Yilan, Hunchun and Jishu basins) were compared with data from North American and European basins. Middle Eocene climate in the Northern Hemisphere was generally warm and humid, and the mean annual temperature and precipitation in northeastern China were similar to those in North America, though slightly lower than those of Europe. Similar trends in temperature and precipitation on different continents support the existence of a global Mid-Eocene cooling event. This paper is the first systematic study of Middle to Late Eocene seasonality in the Huadian Basin. Our results show an apparent differentiation in both temperature and precipitation between summer and winter, supporting the view that the East Asian Monsoon was established in northeastern China already during the Middle to Late Eocene. This Middle and Late Eocene monsoon was likely driven by the development of Pacific trade winds and an alternating, seasonal high- and low-pressure system over Siberia. The climatic changes observed in our dataset, especially the precipitation changes, appear to have played an important role in controlling oil shale formation in the Huadian Basin. A warmer and more humid climate, with abundant precipitation and high subsidence rates, formed a deeper Huadian depositional lake. High productivity and stable stratification provided the abundant organic matter and favorable preservation conditions necessary for oil shale accumulation. Highlights • The Middle-Late Eocene palynoflora were firstly systematically studied in Huadian Basin. • We quantitatively estimated the Middle-Late Eocene climate based on CA method. • A globally cooler phase was recognized in the Middle Eocene. • Climate seasonality in the Middle-Late Eocene supports the EAM was already prevalent in NE China. • Changes in climate, especially precipitation, play an important role in oil shale formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the aim to examine variations in the migration phenology and population of N. lugens along with the advance/retreat of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and lay the foundation for further study on predicting the timing and location of N. lugens outbreak, correlation analysis and spatial analysis were applied for estimating the impact of the ASM and its related meteorological factors on the migration phenology and population of N. lugens in China in this paper. The ASM had a positive effect on the occurrence and outbreak of N. lugens. First, the first appearance date of N. lugens was consistent with seasonal advances of the northernmost location of the ASM, and the ASM provided the dynamic condition for the northward migration of N. lugens. Second, outbreak of N. lugens occurred in the area under the control of the ASM, and the ASM provided the survival condition for the population of N. lugens. Third, the population was positively related to the northernmost location of the ASM, θE (850hPa) and wind speed (850hPa). Particularly, the stronger southwest wind caused the date of the first, peak and last catches of N. lugens to turn up earlier than in the extremely years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive and integrative view of East Asian monsoon evolution during the Holocene is still under debate, and additional high-resolution proxy records from climatically sensitive locations are requisite to solve this complex issue. In this paper, we present three well-dated mud/peat cores from a paleo-pingo depression in the Sanjiang Plain, a climatically sensitive region to monsoon variation, to reveal the paleoenvironmental history of the wetland and discuss the regional impacts from monsoon evolution. A paleolake developed in the study area before 5.5 ka BP, and a peatland initiated thereafter consequent upon the gradual shrinking of the paleolake. This transition lasted until 4.5 ka BP, when the paleolake changed entirely to a wetland. Considering the prevalent monsoon climate in the Sanjiang Plain, we suggest that the lake-to-wetland transition from 5.5 to 4.5 ka BP indicates a rapid decline of the East Asian summer monsoon in addition to autogenic basin infilling processes. Such a remarkable monsoon weakening event has been documented across northern China, and we associate this with ocean–atmosphere interactions throughout low-latitude regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When persistent rainfall occurs frequently over South China, meso-scale and micro-scale synoptic systems persist and expand in space and time and eventually form meso-scale and long-scale weather processes. The accumulation of multiple torrential rain processes is defined as a 'cumulative effect' of torrential rain (CETR) event. In this paper, daily reanalysis datasets collected by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) during 1979-2014 are used to study the anomalous features and causes of heavy CETR events over South China. The results show that there is a significant difference in the spatial distribution of the heavy CETR events. Based on the center position of the CETR, the middle region displayed middle-region-heavy CETR events while the western region displayed west-region-heavy CETR events. El Niño events in the previous period (December, January, February, March (DJFM)) are major extra-forcing factors of middle-region-heavy CETR events, which is beneficial for the continuous, anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone and strengthens the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), extending it more westward than normal. The primary water vapor source for precipitation in middle-region-heavy CETR events is the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean. The major extra-forcing factor of a west-region-heavy CETR is the negative anomaly in the southern Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) during the previous period (DJFM). This factor is beneficial for strengthening the cross-equatorial flow and westerly winds from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea (SCS) and early SCS summer monsoon onset. The primary water vapor source of precipitation in the west-region-heavy CETR is the southern TIO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the relationship between the 1000-850-hPa layer perturbation potential energy (LPPE) as the difference in local potential energy between the actual state and the reference state and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using reanalysis and observational datasets. The EASM is closely related to the first-order moment term of LPPE (LPPE1) from the preceding March to the boreal summer over three key regions: the eastern Indian Ocean, the subtropical central Pacific, and midlatitude East Asia. The LPPE1 pattern (−, +, +), with negative values over the eastern Indian Ocean, positive values over the subtropical central Pacific, and positive values over East Asia, corresponds to negative LPPE1 anomalies over the south of the EASM region but positive LPPE1 anomalies over the north of the EASM region, which lead to an anomalous downward branch over the southern region but an upward branch over the northern region. The anomalous vertical motion affects the local meridional circulation over East Asia that leads to a southwesterly wind anomaly over East Asia (south of 30°N) at 850 hPa and anomalous downward motion over 100°-120°E (along 25°-35°N), resulting in a stronger EASM, more kinetic energy over the EASM region, and less boreal summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (24°-36°N, 90°-125°E). These LPPE1 anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean and subtropical central Pacific appear to be connected to changes in local sea surface temperature through the release of latent heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines observations, climatic analysis, and numerical modeling to investigate the Tibetan Plateau's (TP) surface heating conditions' influence on extreme persistent precipitation events (PEPEs) in southeastern China. Observations indicated an increase of TP surface air temperature 3-4 days prior to extreme persistent precipitation events in southeastern China. NCEP reanalysis data revealed a significant low pressure anomaly in southern China and a high pressure anomaly in northern China during extreme persistent precipitation event periods. Using correlation analysis and random resampling nonparametric statistics, a typical PEPE event from 17 to 25 June 2010 was selected for numerical simulation. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to investigate the impact of the TP's surface heating on the evolution of this event. Three contrasting WRF experiments were conducted with different surface heating strengths by changing initial soil moisture over the TP. Different soil conditions generate different intensities of surface sensible heat fluxes and boundary layer structures over the TP resulting in two main effects on downstream convective rainfall: modulating large-scale atmospheric circulations and modifying the water vapor transport at southern China. Increased surface heating in the TP strengthens a high pressure system over the Yangtze Plain, thereby blocking the northward movement of precipitation. It also enhances the water vapor transport from the South China Sea to southern China. The combined effects substantially increase precipitation over most of the southeastern China region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Climate is a primary driver for extreme rainfall and flood events. In this paper, the temporally changing flood risk associated with the annual maximum 30-day rainfall (30-day AMR) and the annual maximum daily inflow ( AMDI) related to the Xidayang Reservoir catchment is analysed from a climatic context. This is the largest catchment in Daqing River Basin in North China and is highly prone to floods related to the East Asian summer monsoon. Two climate factors, the average May-June-July sea surface temperature anomalies in areas of the northern Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean, are identified. They show a high negative correlation with the AMDI and 30-day AMR. Bayesian nonstationary models are then developed for the AMDI and 30-day AMR using the climate predictors identified as covariates. We compared three types of models of AMDI and 30-day AMR: (1) time-invariant, (2) linear temporal trend and (3) climate informed, and found that the climate-informed models exhibit the best performance according to Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and 90th percentile Bayesian coverage rate for both AMDI and 30-day AMR. A significant decreasing trend is identified in the AMDI and the 30-day AMR, which is found to be associated with the climate predictors. Leave one out cross validation (LOOCV) is used to demonstrate that these models have decent skill in predicting year-to-year variability in flood risk. This can help to provide flood/rainfall dynamic management measures for reservoirs in Daqing River Basin using information from before the beginning of monsoon season, thus facilitating adaptation to a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the East Asian monsoon region, eolian deposits widely distributed in the middle-lower reaches of the Yantgze River are among the best materials available for studies on Quaternary climate change in the subtropical zone of Southern China. Typical eolian deposits in this region include upper Xiashu Loess (XL) and underlying Vermiculated Red Soil (VRS) layers. In this paper, chronological and paleoclimatic studies are conducted on an eolian deposit sequence near Jiujiang (JJ) city in northern Jiangxi province. A magnetostratigraphic study, combined with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, is conducted on the JJ section and provides further evidence that eolian deposits in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River have been formed since the late Early Pleistocene, and that the boundary age between the XL and VRS layers is about 300-400 kaBP. In grain-size records of the JJ section, the median grain-size and content of the >30 μm size fraction increase sharply after 300-400 kaBP, representing an East Asian winter monsoon intensification event. Further pollen analysis reveals differing pollen assemblages before and after 300-400 kaBP: there is an evident increase in plants adapted to grow in a warm humid environment after 300-400 kaBP, implying an increase in precipitation caused by intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon. Global ice volume and uplift of the Tibet Plateau (TP) are regarded as crucial factors influencing variations of the East Asian monsoon on a long-term scale. The deep-sea δ18O record, which reflects variations in global ice volume, shows no obvious change after 300-400 kaBP. Moreover, the influence of global ice volume changes on the East Asian summer and winter monsoons is inverse; the global ice volume increase (decrease) implies a strengthened (weakened) winter monsoon and weakened (strengthened) summer monsoon. We therefore interpret the coupled intensifications of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons at about 300-400 kaBP to the uplift of the TP in the Middle Pleistocene. This climate event is also documented in eolian deposits from the southern margin of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) and from the desert-loess transitional belt. However, it is not recorded in the loess-paleosol sequences from the central part of the CLP, thereby indicating differing climate responses to TP uplift in different regions, which requires further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper provides a scientific assessment of the inter-decadal variability of the Asian summer monsoon and its significant effect on precipitation patterns in China. The paper consists of four parts. The first part shows the observed inter-decadal weakening of the Asian summer monsoon since the end of 1970s. The second part describes the impact of the weakening Asian summer monsoon on precipitation in China, which caused the major monsoon rainbelt to shift southward from North China to South China over about 30 years, with a 60-80 oscillation dominating. The third part projects the future change of the Asian summer monsoon in the warmer climate by using IPCC AR4 climate models. It has been found that major monsoon rainfall belts in East Asia will move northward in the 2040s, with summer precipitation in North China increasing considerably and stably. Finally, in the fourth part, the implication of the adaptation to the above climate change and related water management will be discussed including the water transport engineering project from the Yangtze River to the Yellow River and North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific issues relevant to interactions between aerosols and the Asian monsoon climate were discussed and evaluated at the 33rd 'Forum of Science and Technology Frontiers' sponsored by the Department of Earth Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Major results are summarized in this paper. The East Asian monsoon directly affects aerosol transport and provides a favorable background circulation for the occurrence and development of persistent fog-haze weather. Spatial features of aerosol transport and distribution are also influenced by the East Asian monsoon on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal scales. High moisture levels in monsoon regions also affect aerosol optical and radiative properties. Observation analyses indicate that cloud physical properties and precipitation are significantly affected by aerosols in China with aerosols likely suppressing local light and moderate rainfall, and intensifying heavy rainfall in southeast coastal regions. However, the detailed mechanisms behind this pattern still need further exploration. The decadal variation in the East Asian monsoon strongly affects aerosol concentrations and their spatial patterns. The weakening monsoon circulation in recent decades has likely helped to increase regional aerosol concentrations. The substantial increase in Chinese air pollutants has likely decreased the temperature difference between land and sea, which favors intensification of the weakening monsoon circulation. Constructive suggestions regarding future studies on aerosols and monsoons were proposed in this forum and key uncertain issues were also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deserts and sandylands that are located in the semi-arid and arid regions in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are usually regarded as environmentally sensitive change belts which respond to global climatic change. In northern China, activation or immobilization of sand dunes is mainly influenced by humid and dry variation and is related to stronger or weaker Asian monsoons. In this paper, the history of Holocene millennial-scale climatic and environmental change is reconstructed by the systematic analysis of the geochemical element contents and parameters, along with the OSL and C chronologies, from the different lithologies of the palaeosol-aeolian sand sequence in the south-eastern Mu Us Desert, northern China. Our results indicate that the region was dominated by a dry climate with intensive aeolian activity before 7.2 ka BP, and there was an optimal humid climate and fixed desert in 7.2-4.6 ka. Afterwards, the dune fields became mobile again as the effective humidity declined. Additionally, six dry events were discovered with times of ~7.2, 7.0-6.8, 6.6-5.7, 4.6-4.1, 3.7-3.5, and 3.3-2.5 ka, which were not only coincident with the intervals of millennial-scale weaker Asian summer monsoons, but also accordant with the cold events evidenced in the ice cores and deep-sea deposits of the high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. In general, the Holocene climatic and environmental changes had the characteristics of the 'monsoonal mode' and 'abrupt millennial-scale oscillation' in the Mu Us Desert. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is piercing wind blowing in rural settlements of cold areas during winter time, not only affecting the residents' outdoor activities, but also resulting in negative impacts on building energy efficiency and indoor thermal environment. As courtyard is the main space for outdoor activities of rural residents, whether its wind environment is good or not will directly influence people's life quality and productivity. Through visit and investigation about courtyards of Wudalianchi in Heilongjiang province, China, this paper has summarized components and layouts of courtyards in this area, using Fluent to make a simulation analysis of wind environment with different layouts. It also takes rural residents' activity type and region in the courtyard during winter into consideration, analyzing the influence winter monsoon environment in various courtyards has on people's activities and coming up with the corresponding improvement strategy of design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period was the most recent geological period in Earth's history that featured long-term warming. Both geological evidence and model results indicate that East Asian summer winds (EASWs) strengthened in monsoonal China, and that East Asian winter winds (EAWWs) weakened in northern monsoonal China during this period, as compared to the pre-industrial period. However, the corresponding mechanisms are still unclear. In this paper, the results of a set of numerical simulations are reported to analyze the effects of changed boundary conditions on the mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon climate, based on PRISM3 (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. The model results showed that the combined changes of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric CO concentration, and ice sheet extent were necessary to generate an overall warm climate on a large scale, and that these factors exerted the greatest effects on the strengthening of EASWs in monsoonal China. The orographic change produced significant local warming and had the greatest effect on the weakening of EAWWs in northern monsoonal China in the mid-Pliocene. Thus, these two factors both had important but different effects on the monsoon change. In comparison, the effects of vegetational change on the strengthened EASWs and weakened EAWWs were relatively weak. The changed monsoon winds can be explained by a reorganization of the meridional temperature gradient and zonal thermal contrast. Moreover, the effect of orbital parameters cannot be ignored. Results showed that changes in orbital parameters could have markedly affected the EASWs and EAWWs, and caused significant short-term oscillations in the mid-Pliocene monsoon climate in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and various observational datasets are analyzed to assess the predictability of the ESR and associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that CFSv2 can successfully predict the ESR and associated circulation patterns over southern China. The lower-tropospheric convergence and upper-tropospheric divergence as well as the local upward motion over southern China lead to the formation of ESR. Analysis of bias shows small differences and close relationships between the predicted and observed ESR values when the forecast lead time is less than 2 weeks. The skill in the ESR predictions by CFSv2 decreases significantly when the lead time is longer than 2 weeks. Overall, CFSv2 has a higher level of skill when predicting the southern China ESR compared to the rainfall over other Asian regions during the same period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of El Niño Modoki (ENM), La Niña Modoki (LNM), canonical El Niño (CEN) and canonical La Niña (CLN) on tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall over mainland China during 1951-2011 are analysed using best-track data from China, the USA and Japan. Relative to cold phase years (LNM and CLN), landfalling TCs in warm years (ENM and CEN) have a farther east genesis location, as well as longer track lengths and durations, both in total and before landfall. ENM demonstrates the highest landfall frequency, most northerly mean landfall position, and shortest after-landfall sustainability (track length and duration), which indicate a more frequent and extensive coverage of mainland China by TCs, but with shorter after-landfall influence. CEN has low landfall frequency and the most southerly mean landfall location. LNM has the most westerly genesis location, being significantly farther west than the 1951-2011 average and leading to short mean track lengths and durations both in total or before landfall, all of which are significantly shorter than the 1951-2011 average. Variations in the low-level wind anomaly, vertical wind shear, mid-level relative humidity, steering flow, the monsoon trough and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) can to some extent account for the features of frequency, location, track length and duration of landfalling TCs. Since ENSO Modoki is expected to become more frequent in the near future, the results for ENSO Modoki presented in this paper are of particular significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3.5, this paper examines the climatic effects of afforestation in the East China monsoon region with a focus on land-atmosphere interactions and the modulating influence of ocean variability. In response to afforestation, the local surface air temperature significantly decreases in summer and increases in winter. The summer cooling is attributed to enhanced evapotranspiration from increased tree cover. During winter, afforestation induces greater roughness and weaker winds over the adjacent coastal ocean, leading to diminished latent heat flux and increased sea-surface temperature (SST). The enhanced SST supports greater atmospheric water vapor, which is accompanied by anomalous wind, and transported into the East China monsoon region. The increase in atmospheric water vapor favors more cloud cover and precipitation, especially in the eastern afforestation region. Furthermore, the increase in atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover produce a greenhouse effect, raising the wintertime surface air temperature. By comparing simulations in which ocean temperature are either fixed or variable, we demonstrate that a significant hydrologic response in East China to afforestation only occurs if ocean temperatures are allowed to vary and the oceanic source of moisture to the continent is enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, more and more record-breaking extreme weather/climate events have been reported from the Asian monsoon region, which have caused tremendous loss of property and lives. In this paper, we analyzed the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability during the Holocene and evaluated future climate extremes in monsoonal China from a paleoclimatic view. We found a significant regime transition to more chaotic fluctuations, with enhanced decadal variability of the ASM since 6.6 ka BP. We suggested the gradual intensification of ENSO was responsible for enhancing the ASM variability since the late mid-Holocene. If the observed relationship of monsoon mean intensity, ENSO and decadal variability of the ASM in the past 11.2 ka continue to exist, enhanced decadal variability of ASM in the future warming world will be expected. As a result, the intensification of daily precipitation extremes, superimposed on enhanced decadal variability of ASM, might make the record-breaking extremes more frequent in the future, increasing the risk of climate-related disasters in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the variability and change of monsoon onset is of utmost importance for agriculture planning and water management. In the last three decades, the Asian summer monsoon onset (ASMO) has remarkably advanced, but the physical mechanisms underlying the change remain elusive. Since the overall ASMO occurs in May, this paper focuses on the change of mean fields in May and considers enhanced mean precipitation and monsoon westerly winds as signs of advanced ASMO. The results reveal that the advanced ASMO mainly represents a robust decadal shift in the mid-to-late 1990s, which is attributed to the mean state change in the Pacific basin characterized by a grand La Niña-like pattern. The La Niña-like mean state change controls the ASMO through the westward propagation of Rossby waves and its interaction with the asymmetric background mean states in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, which intensifies the Northern Hemispheric perturbations and westerly winds. Intriguingly, the abrupt decadal shifts of monsoon onset in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal occur in 1999, in contrast to the South China Sea with a decadal shift in 1994. Numerical experiments with a coupled climate model demonstrate that the advanced monsoon onset in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is governed by the enhanced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial Pacific, while that in the South China Sea is primarily determined by the abrupt SST warming near the Philippine Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dispersal–germination strategy of seeds of 66 native tree species from a seasonal evergreen monsoon rainforest on Hainan Island, China, and assesses correlations among seed germination and phylogeny, dispersal mode and dispersal season. Seeds of 15, 7, 25 and 19 species were dispersed during the warm dry (March–May), rainy (June–September), late rainy (October–November) and cool dry (December–February) seasons, respectively. Berries (16 species), drupes (14 species) and capsules (12 species) were common and represented about 64% of the species. Zoochory was the most common dispersal mode (69.7%) followed by anemochory (16.7%) and autochory (13.6%). More than 65% of species had dormant seeds. Based on germination speed and synchrony, six patterns were recognized: rapid and synchronous germination (13 species), intermediate and synchronous germination (3 species), intermediate and intermediately synchronous germination (24 species), intermediate and asynchronous germination (2 species), slow and intermediately synchronous germination (5 species), and slow and asynchronous germination (19 species). One-way ANOVAs revealed that the variance in germination percentages among species was largely dependent upon phylogeny. The mean and median length of germination (MLG) were largely dependent upon phylogeny, dispersal mode and dispersal season. Anemochorous seeds germinated faster than autochorous and zoochorous seeds. Seeds dispersed in the late dry or early rainy season (March–May) tended to germinate quickly, whereas those dispersed towards the end of the rainy season and into the cool dry season are likely to have a much longer length of dormancy. Correlation analyses indicated that larger seeds germinated faster and had higher germination percentages. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Based on their opposite influences on rainfall in southern China during boreal fall, this paper classifies El Niño Modoki into two groups: El Niño Modoki I and II, which show different origins and patterns of SST anomalies. The warm SST anomalies originate in the equatorial central Pacific and subtropical northeastern Pacific for El Niño Modoki I and II, respectively. Thus, El Niño Modoki I shows a symmetric SST anomaly distribution about the equator with the maximum warming in the equatorial central Pacific, whereas El Niño Modoki II displays an asymmetric distribution with the warm SST anomalies extending from the northeastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific. Additionally, the warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific extend farther westward for El Niño Modoki II than for El Niño Modoki I. Similar to the canonical El Niño, El Niño Modoki I is associated with an anomalous anticyclone in the Philippine Sea that induces southwesterly wind anomalies along the south coast of China and carries the moisture for increasing rainfall in southern China. For El Niño Modoki II, an anomalous cyclone resides east of the Philippines, associated with northerly wind anomalies and a decrease in rainfall in southern China. The canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki I are associated with a westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), whereas El Niño Modoki II shifts the WNPSH eastward. Differing from canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki I, El Niño Modoki II corresponds to northwesterly anomalies of the typhoon steering flow, which are unfavorable for typhoons to make landfall in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Drought is a recurring phenomenon in north-central China. Long-term information about the history of drought is still limited because the instrumental records for many areas in north-central China go back only a few decades at best. This paper presents an earlywood width (EWW) chronology of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) in the Shimen Mountains, Tianshui, eastern Gansu, north-central China. The climate-response analysis shows that April–July precipitation is the main factor limiting the earlywood growth of Chinese pines in the Shimen Mountains, Tianshui. Based on the EWW chronology, an April–July precipitation reconstruction for the period A.D. 1629–2008 was developed for Tianshui. The climate/tree-growth model accounts for 41.6% of the observed precipitation variance during the period 1953–2008. Spatial analysis shows that the precipitation reconstruction contains a strong common drought signal for north-central China. Reconstructed drought events are compared to a precipitation reconstruction of Huashan and historical archives for north-central China. The results reveal common climatic extremes over much of north-central China. Moreover, some dry periods coincided with solar minima or volcanic eruptions over the past several hundred years. Multi-taper spectral analysis reveals the existence of significant 3.8-year (90%), 3.1-year (95%), 2.7-year (99%), 2.4-year (99%) and 2.0-year (99%) periods of variability. The linkages to the Asian-Pacific Oscillation Index suggest regional precipitation variations may be linked to the East Asian summer monsoon circulations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a spatially and temporally improved reconstruction of mean summer (June–August) temperature derived from tree-ring width data of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) from the northern Great Xing''an Mountains, Northeast China. Three new chronologies were added to the original 2011 reconstruction, and the reconstruction extended back to AD 1715. The reconstruction was generated using a simple linear regression method, verified by independent meteorological data, and accounts for 47.0% of the actual temperature variance during the common period (1957–2008). The reconstruction captures decadal and century-scale regional temperature variability, such as cold decades (1940s, 1930s, 1790s, 1950s and 1850s), warm decades (2000s, 1870s, 1750s, 1980s and 1840s), a cold half-century (ca. 1750–1799), and a warm half-century (ca. 1900–1949). It also reveals slightly higher frequency of cold years (20.4%) than warm years (18.0%), and a recent warming trend. Compared to the original 2011 reconstruction, this reconstruction has lower inter-annual temperature variability, high explained variance and high representativeness of regional climate. The reconstruction also correlates with the East Asian Monsoon and the Pacific Ocean signals, and indicates the feasibility of using tree rings from high latitude Northeast China to reconstruct summer temperature in permafrost forest environments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the 30-60 day oscillation (intraseasonal oscillation, ISO) of summer rainfall in China and the effects of East Asian monsoon on the rainfall ISO are analyzed in this paper. Results show that the annual and decadal variations of the oscillation exist between 1960 and 2008, and the intensity is weakest in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO obtained from empirical orthogonal functions (EOF mode 1), an anticyclone is in northwestern Pacific and a cyclone is in the east of China. In the typical weak years, the wind ISO is much weaker. The low-frequency zonal wind and water vapor transport from the low latitudes to mid-latitudes in the typical strong years, and the oscillation strength of diabatic heating is much stronger than that in the weak years of the rainfall ISO. The anomaly characteristics of the rainfall ISO show anti-phases between the Yangtze River basin and south of China. As for the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO in the Yangtze River basin (EOF mode 2), the main oscillation center of water vapor is in the east of China (20-30°N, 110-130°E). In the peak (break) phase of the rainfall oscillation, a low-frequency cyclone (anticyclone) is in the Yangtze River basin and an anticyclone (cyclone) is near Taiwan Island. In addition, the peak rainfall corresponds to the heat source in the Yangtze River basin and the heat sink in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As for the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO in the south of China, the main oscillation center of water vapor is south of 20°N. In the peak (break) phase of the rainfall ISO, a low-frequency cyclone (anticyclone) is in the south of China and an anticyclone (cyclone) is in the Philippines. The peak rainfall corresponds to the heat source in the south of China and the South China Sea, and the heat sink in the west of Indochina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a study of surface monsoon winds over the China marginal seas, Sun et al. (2012) use singular value decomposition method to identify regional dominant modes and analyze their interdecadal variability. This paper continues to evaluate the interannual variability of each dominant mode and its relation to various atmospheric, oceanic and land factors. The findings include: 1) The intensity of the winter monsoon over the East China Sea is highly correlated with the Siberian High intensity and anti-correlated with the latitudinal position of the Aleutian Low as well as the rainfall in eastern China, Korean Peninsula and Japan; 2) The western Pacific subtropical high is significantly correlated with the summer monsoon intensity over the East China Sea and anti-correlated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea; 3) The winter monsoon in a broad zonal belt through the Luzon Strait is dominated by the ENSO signal, strengthening in the La Niña phase and weakening in the El Niño phase. This inverse relation exhibits interdecadal shift with a period of weak correlation in the 1980s; 4) Analysis of tidal records validates the interdecadal weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon and reveals an atmospheric bridge that conveys the ENSO signal into the South China Sea via the winter monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vast Dongting Lake in the middle Yangtze River basin, China, was occupied by Chinese Neolithic settlements starting 10 000 years ago, and rice cultivation there is probably the earliest in the world. The numerous Neolithic settlements identified by previous archaeological surveys represent the five major Neolithic cultural stages, i.e. the Pengtoushan (9000–7900 cal. yr BP), Zaoshixiaceng (7900–6800 cal. yr BP), Daxi (6800–5500 cal. yr BP), Qujialing (5500–5000 cal. yr BP), and Shijiahe (5000–4000 cal. yr BP). Using sedimentological and geoarchaeological approaches, this paper analyses the drivers of basin-scale settlement relocation in relation to lake-level fluctuations and monsoon climate variations in the Holocene. The relocation of Neolithic sites around the lake shoreline and on the adjacent floodplain, together with radiocarbon-dated stratigraphy, clearly indicates that the shape of the lake basin was an incised and elongated valley occupied by a lake in the early Holocene, which became a broader and shallower depression in the mid to late Holocene. The established lowest habitable base of the settlements positioned on the lake shore assists reconstruction of the change in lake level from 22 m at 9000 cal. yr BP to 26 m at 5500–4000 cal. yr BP, although higher and lower lake levels occurred during the intervening cultural stages. The pollen spectra reveal a warming trend throughout the Holocene with at least four major temperature cycles, driven by monsoon variations between temperate- and warm-humid conditions. In the early Holocene the climate changed from cool-dry to warm-humid, and this played a key role in developing the earliest Pengtoushan culture in the region. Subsequent climate fluctuations fit well with the advance and retreat of the lake shore, also coevally with Neolithic site movements in the lake region. In this study we show how geoarchaeological evidence can be used in environmental reconstruction during the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, change-points in time series of annual extremes in temperature and precipitation in the Zhujiang River Basin are analyzed with the CUSUM test. The data cover the period 1961-2007 for 192 meteorological stations. Annual indicators are analyzed: mean temperature, maximum temperature, warm days, total precipitation, 5-day maximum precipitation, and dry days. Significant change-points (1986/87, 1997/98, 1968/69, and 2003/04) are detected in the time series of most of the indicators. The change-point in 1986/87 is investigated in more detail. Most stations with this change-point in temperature indicators are located in the eastern and coastal areas of the basin. Stations with this change-point in dry days are located in the western area. The means and trends of the temperature indicators increase in the entire basin after 1986/87. The highest magnitudes can be found at the coast and delta. Decreasing (increasing) tendencies in total and 5-day maximum precipitation (dry days) are mostly observed in the western and central regions. The detected change-points can be explained by changes in the indices of the Western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon as well as by change-points in wind directions. In years when the indices simultaneously increase and decrease (indices taking reverse directions to negative and positive) higher annual temperatures and lower annual precipitation occur in the Zhujiang River Basin. The high station density and data quality are very useful for spatially assessing change-points of climatic extreme events. The relation of the change points to large-scale oscillation can provide valuable data for planning adaptation measures against climate risks, e.g. for flood control, disaster preparedness, and water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, we present the first annual oxygen isotope (δ18O) record (1902 to 2004) from the latewood cellulose of trees growing in a temperate-moist forest in southwestern China. Tree-ring δ18O ranges from 12.8 to 18.6‰ and averages 15.2‰. δ18O in the latewood negatively correlates with total cloud cover, relative humidity, and precipitation during the moist months (August to October) from 1951 to 2004 and, to a lesser extent, positively correlates with the temperature in June. Spatial correlation analysis revealed that tree-ring latewood δ18O is more strongly related to variability in regional cloud cover and precipitation in autumn. Tree-ring δ18O negatively correlates with the indices of the Indian summer monsoon (1948 to 2004), the western North Pacific monsoon (1948 to 2004), and with the East Asian summer monsoon (1902 to 2000), suggesting that these monsoons strongly influence the regional climate. Under global warming of last century, we found a strong inverse correlation between tree-ring δ18O and the Southern Oscillation index in different periods, indicating a complex association between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the regional climate, which in turn affects tree-ring δ18O. Correlation with the global sea surface temperature (SST) indicates that climatic conditions in the Indian Ocean might play a dominant role in modulating cloud cover and precipitation over the study region during the monsoon seasons. We also found a significant correlation between tree-ring δ18O and SST over the western-north Pacific Ocean. Our results suggest strong links between tropical oceans and an ENSO-like climate with the oxygen-isotope sources and discrimination for trees in the study region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Miocene Lincang leaf assemblage is used in this paper as proxy data to reconstruct the palaeoclimate of southwestern Yunnan (SW China) and the evolution of monsoon intensity. Three quantitative methods were chosen for this reconstruction, i.e. Leaf Margin Analysis (LMA), Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP), and the Coexistence Approach (CA). These methods, however, yield inconsistent results, particularly for the precipitation, as also shown in European and other East Asian Cenozoic floras. The wide range of the reconstructed climatic parameters includes the Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) of 18.5–24.7°C and the Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) of 1213–3711mm. Compared with the modern Lincang climate (MAT, 17.3°C; MAP, 1178.7mm), the Miocene climate is slightly warmer, wetter and has a higher temperature seasonality. A detailed comparison on the palaeoclimatic variables with the coeval Late Miocene Xiaolongtan flora from the eastern part of Yunnan allows us to investigate the development and interactions of both South Asian and East Asian monsoons during the Late Miocene in southwest China, now under strong influence of these monsoon systems. Our results suggest that the monsoon climate has already been established in southwest Yunnan during the Late Miocene. Furthermore, our results support that both Southeast Asian and East Asian monsoons co-occurred in Yunnan during the Late Miocene. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]