Search

Measuring party support in Australia by constructing a 'two-party preferred' vote has had a profound effect, not only on the way political scientists, journalists, and politicians understand electoral 'swing' and predict electoral outcomes, but also on their understanding of the party system, their thinking about electoral fairness, and their views about which party or parties can legitimately claim government. This article traces the origins - the maternity as well as the paternity - of the 'two-party preferred'. It documents its spread from federal to state elections, even as voting systems in some states have switched from exhaustive preferential to optional preferential. It discusses its wide-ranging impact, and its implications for notions of electoral fairness and the legitimacy of election outcomes. It evaluates various criticisms of the concept - technical, pragmatic, and conceptual. And it notes the implications for marginal seat campaigning of the commonly observed 'uniform swing'- implications completely at odds with the idea that marginal seats matter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While national election campaigns have become increasingly personalized, it is unclear to what extent this trend has been replicated at the constituency level. Using surveys of Australian election candidates conducted from 1996 to 2010, this article tests the personalization hypothesis at the local constituency level. Three areas that may be affected by personalization are examined: constituency service; geographic proximity between candidates and potential voters; and local election campaigning. Among MPs, constituency service has grown in importance at the expense of local party engagement. However, among the broader group of candidates standing in the election, the results show that party-related activities deliver more votes than personal ones. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article discusses various aspects of the political conditions in Australia between July and December 2013, focusing on the reported tribalisation of Australian politics and the nation's 44th federal election on September 7, 2013 which featured interim Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. According to the article, Australia's Labor Party-led government was swept out in 2013 after two parliamentary terms in office. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott and political campaigns are examined.

In what ways, if any, do campaigns matter? Specifically, what can we say about election campaigns in Australia? If they shift votes, in what direction do voters move? A comparison of opinion poll data taken at the beginning of each of the last ten national elections with the distribution of the vote at the end of each campaign suggests that the gap in first preferences between government and opposition generally narrowed; certainly, it never widened. The data do not suggest that incumbency (being in government) is an advantage. Nor do the figures conjure visions of voters clambering on bandwagons—as we might expect if there were a 'spiral of silence'. Instead, the data point to an underdog effect, with the party that starts behind making up ground on the party that starts ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2007 results in New South Wales reflect hard work by Labor, as well as the complacency of the Coalition, especially its leadership. The Australian Labor Party (ALP) is well and truly back at federal level in NSW, having won a more solid victory in two party preferred terms than the Coalition had in 1996. In 2007, voters in NSW did not distinguish in any substantial way between the House and the Senate in their voting and, overall, voter support for the minor parties seems to have 'settled back' to its 1996 figures. Nonetheless the minor parties continue to play an important role in the marginal seats which went to preferences. The 2007 election in NSW was far from 'normal' because the Prime Minister, John Howard, lost his own seat of Bennelong. That loss was due to several factors, the most important of which was the changed demographic profile of the seat, underlined by the 2005 redistribution. The return of the incumbent Liberal Malcolm Turnbull in the seat of Wentworth (winning the seat on first preferences with a swing of 10.1 per cent) is also noteworthy, not least because he became the leader of the Opposition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the political scenario in Australia. Platforms of the political parties; Impact of an August 2001 crisis involving Afghan asylum-seekers in Australia; Results of the state elections in March 2002.