13 results
Search Results
2. Stochastic analysis of the critical velocity of an axially moving cracked elastic plate.
- Author
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Tirronen, M., Banichuk, N., Jeronen, J., Saksa, T., and Tuovinen, T.
- Subjects
- *
STOCHASTIC analysis , *CRITICAL velocity , *ELASTIC plates & shells , *FRACTURE mechanics , *PROBABILITY theory , *STRUCTURAL plates - Abstract
In this study, a probabilistic analysis of the critical velocity for an axially moving cracked elastic and isotropic plate is presented. Axially moving materials are commonly used in modelling of manufacturing processes, like paper making and plastic forming. In such systems, the most serious threats to runnability are instability and material fracture, and finding the critical value of velocity is essential for efficiency. In this paper, a formula for the critical velocity is derived under constraints for the probabilities of instability and fracture. The significance of randomness in different model parameters is investigated for parameter ranges typical of paper material and paper machines. The results suggest that the most significant factors are variations in the crack length and tension magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Paper quality evaluation management system design based on web and evidence theory.
- Author
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ZHANG Lili and HE Yongming
- Subjects
INTERNET administration ,ACADEMIC discourse ,DEMPSTER-Shafer theory ,PROBABILITY theory ,STANDARDIZATION - Abstract
The paper realize the Internet management for every step of undergraduate paper, and grantee the quality through some technique ways. And then applying D-S evidence theory for result evaluation is put forward in this paper, and using expert's evidence resources sufficiently for the last result. The study shows that, this method could promote the objectification and standardization of management and evaluation, and then promote the level of paper management efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
4. The drying shrinkage of cellulosic fibres and isotropic paper sheets.
- Author
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Sampson, W. W. and Yamamoto, J.
- Subjects
- *
CELLULOSE fibers , *DRYING , *MOISTURE , *PROBABILITY theory , *PAPER , *NANOCOMPOSITE materials - Abstract
We present theory for the shrinkage on drying of the cross-sectional area of cellulosic fibres and show that this depends on their initial moisture content only. For the linear shrinkage of cross-sectional dimensions, an additional parameter is required, which we estimate from comparison of the theory with experimental data from the literature. We proceed to combine our model of fibre shrinkage with probabilistic theory for fibre contacts in random fibrous networks to obtain a model for the unrestrained shrinkage of isotropic paper sheets. The expression obtained depends only on the moisture content of fibres and the extent of inter-fibre contact and exhibits good agreement with experimental data for laboratory-formed paper sheets. The results have relevance to the commercial manufacture of paper and potential for application to the study of cellulose nano-composites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Application of simple Bayesian statistics to a sample database for source correspondence
- Author
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Kumar, Rajesh
- Subjects
- *
BAYESIAN analysis , *DATABASES , *PAPER , *BRAND name products , *PROBABILITY theory , *PAPER testing , *STATISTICS , *WRITING materials & instruments - Abstract
Abstract: Bayesian statistics was applied to a small sample database of the tensile properties of five different brands of writing paper which were perceptibly similar. The measured parameters in the database were found to overlap for the five brands. This posed a limitation to the application of the classical approach for “match” or “no match”. It was found that using Bayesian statistics for source correspondence, a mere 2–3 measurements corresponding to a particular brand raised the probabilities associated with that brand to as high a 72% and eliminating a couple of brands. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. LMMSE Turbo Equalization Based on Factor Graphs.
- Author
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Qinghua Guo and Li Ping
- Subjects
VECTOR analysis ,LINEAR systems ,GAUSSIAN measures ,PROBABILITY theory ,APPROXIMATION theory ,PAPER - Abstract
In this paper, a vector-form factor graph representation is derived for intersymbol interference (ISI) channels. The resultant graphs have a tree-structure that avoids the short cycle problem in existing graph approaches. Based on a joint Gaussian approximation, we establish a connection between the LLR (log-likelihood ratio) estimator for a linear system driven by binary inputs and the LMMSE (linear minimum mean-square error) estimator for a linear system driven by Gaussian inputs. This connection facilitates the application of the recently proposed Gaussian message passing technique to the cycle-free graphs for ISI channels. We also show the equivalence between the proposed approach and the Wang-Poor approach based on the LMMSE principle. An attractive advantage of the proposed approach is its intrinsic parallel structure. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate this property. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2008
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. Analysis of the Biological Clock Decision.
- Author
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Keeney, Ralph L. and Vernik, Dinah A.
- Subjects
PAPER ,PHILOSOPHICAL analysis ,WOMEN ,FAMILIES ,FIRST-born children ,BIOLOGICAL rhythms ,QUALITY of life ,AGE ,PROBABILITY theory ,MANNERS & customs - Abstract
The decisions of if and when to have a first child are very important for any woman or couple. This paper develops a model to examine when a woman should begin trying to conceive, which depends on the personal circumstances and values of each woman. The model incorporates separate objectives for a woman's professional, social, and family aspects of life and integrates them into a quality-of-life function that includes the changing relative importance of these aspects with age over a woman's life. Descriptions of the relative quality of each of these three aspects of a woman's life are modeled over time for different cases. One case involves no child and other cases involve the woman giving birth at different ages from 21 to 50. The probabilities of conceiving when trying, as a function of a woman's age, are included. The relative pros and cons of waiting until the late thirties to have a child to avoid perceived detrimental impacts on one's career or social life are investigated. Several illustrations are included in the paper to demonstrate insights that can be generated using the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. Asymmetric Nash Bargaining with Surprised Players.
- Author
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Hanany, Eran and Gal, Rotem
- Subjects
PAPER ,BUSINESS negotiation ,NASH equilibrium ,AXIOMS ,PROBABILITY theory ,CONTRACTS - Abstract
This paper introduces two-player bargaining problems allowing for asymmetric subjective uncertainty about factors that determine whether agreement is achieved, focusing on surprising events, i.e. events believed possible by only one player. A ‘subjective Nash’ solution is proposed, in which a bargaining outcome is defined as immune to all possible appeals given the subjective uncertainty of disagreement. In addition to Pareto optimality and independence of irrelevant alternatives, the main axiom in the solution characterization is ‘subjective symmetry’. The solution is shown to be equivalent to a specific, non-symmetric, Nash solution, with preference dependent weights that equal the subjective probability players assign to the intersection of their belief supports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Spatial synchrony in population fluctuations: extending the Moran theorem to cope with spatially heterogeneous dynamics.
- Author
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Hugueny, Bernard
- Subjects
- *
DEMOGRAPHY , *POPULATION , *SOCIAL status , *SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC factors , *PROBABILITY theory , *FRACTIONAL parentage coefficients , *EMBEDDING theorems , *PASTERNAK'S theorem , *PAPER - Abstract
The recent interest in the spatial structure and dynamics of populations motivated numerous theoretical and empirical studies of spatial synchrony, the tendency of populations to fluctuate in unison over regional areas. The first comprehensive framework applied to spatial synchrony was probably the one elaborated by P. A. P. Moran back in 1953. He suggested that if two populations have the same linear density-dependent structure, the correlation between them will be equal to that between the local density-independent conditions. Surprisingly, the consequences of violating the assumption that the dynamics of the populations are identical has received little attention. In this paper, making the assumption that population dynamics can be described by linear and stationary autoregressive processes, I show that the observed spatial synchrony between two populations can be decomposed into two multiplicative components: the demographic component depending on the values of the autoregressive coefficients, and the correlation of the environmental noise. The Moran theorem corresponds to the special case where the demographic component equals unity. Using published data, I show that the spatial variability in population dynamics may substantially contribute to the spatial variability of population synchrony, and thus should not be neglected in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2006
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
10. Informational length and order of presentation as determinants of persuasion
- Author
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Pierro, Antonio, Mannetti, Lucia, Erb, Hans-Peter, Spiegel, Scott, and Kruglanski, Arie W.
- Subjects
- *
HEURISTIC , *METHODOLOGY , *PROBABILITY theory , *PAPER - Abstract
Abstract: The present paper explores the notion that an important difference between prior operational definitions of “cue” or “heuristic” information versus “message argument” information has to do with differential processing difficulty, and relative ordinal position of these two information types. In previous work, “cue/heuristic” information typically differed from “message argument” information not only in its contents, but also in it being (1) briefer, and (2) presented prior to the message information. We find that it is relative brevity and ordinal position rather than contents that ultimately explain the differences in persuasive impact between “cue/heuristic” versus “message argument” information. In so far as both “cues” and “message arguments” can vary in brevity and order with which they are presented, these findings are consistent with the view that these two information types do not necessarily differ in their persuasive impact. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2005
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Hardness amplification within NP
- Author
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O'Donnell, Ryan
- Subjects
- *
ARITHMETIC mean , *PAPER , *STATISTICS , *PROBABILITY theory - Abstract
In this paper we investigate the following question: if NP is slightly hard on average, is it very hard on average? We give a positive answer: if there is a function in NP which is infinitely often balanced and
(1-1/poly(n)) -hard for circuits of polynomial size, then there is a function in NP which is infinitely often(1/2+n-1/2+#x03B5;) -hard for circuits of polynomial size. Our proof technique is to generalize the Yao XOR Lemma, allowing us to characterize nearly tightly the hardness of a composite functiong( f(x1),…,f(xn)) in terms of: (i) the original hardness off , and (ii) the expected bias of the functiong when subjected to random restrictions. The computational result we prove essentially matches an information-theoretic bound. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]- Published
- 2004
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. A Conversation with Milton Sobel
- Author
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Mukhopadhyay, Nitis and Sobel, Milton
- Published
- 2000
13. The Birth of the Journal of Applied Probability
- Author
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Gani, J. and Spier, A.
- Published
- 1965
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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