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The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has been increasing rapidly since the Industrial Revolution, which has led to unequivocal global warming and crucial environmental change. It is extremely important to investigate the interactions among atmospheric CO2, the physical climate system, and the carbon cycle of the underlying surface for a better understanding of the Earth system. Earth system models are widely used to investigate these interactions via coupled carbon-climate simulations. The Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2 (CAS-ESM2.0) has successfully fixed a two-way coupling of atmospheric CO2 with the climate and carbon cycle on land and in the ocean. Using CAS-ESM2.0, we conducted a coupled carbon-climate simulation by following the CMIP6 proposal of a historical emissions-driven experiment. This paper examines the modeled CO2 by comparison with observed CO2 at the sites of Mauna Loa and Barrow, and the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) CO2 product. The results showed that CAS-ESM2.0 agrees very well with observations in reproducing the increasing trend of annual CO2 during the period 1850–2014, and in capturing the seasonal cycle of CO2 at the two baseline sites, as well as over northern high latitudes. These agreements illustrate a good ability of CAS-ESM2.0 in simulating carbon-climate interactions, even though uncertainties remain in the processes involved. This paper reports an important stage of the development of CAS-ESM with the coupling of carbon and climate, which will provide significant scientific support for climate research and China's goal of carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many regions around the world are facing climate changes, with substantial increase in air temperature over the past decades, which is mainly related to continental and global warming forced by the higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study were to use the Köppen climate classification to detect local climate change based on a historical series of 100 years and to assess if such change is related to those that are occurring in other spatial scales as a likely consequence of increasing GHG. This paper brings a content full of innovative results. The study area presented an average annual air temperature increase by 0.9 °C between 1917 and 2016, rising from 21.4 °C for the first climatological normal (1917–1946) to 22.3 °C for the last one (1987–2016). Furthermore, in the summer months, the temperature rose from 24.5 to 25.3 °C, and in the winter months, such increase was from 17.1 (1917–1946) to 18.3 °C (1987–2016). Our findings showed the subtropical conditions (Cfa in Köppen's classification) in the study area persisted from the beginning of the analysis (1917–1946) until the climatological normal of 1979–2008, with a clear tendency of tropicalization after that with a change in the climate type of Piracicaba from subtropical to tropical, which can now be classified as tropical with dry winter (Aw climate type). The local average air temperature showed concordances with the long-term air temperature anomalies from regional, continental, and global scales, indicating that all of them may be linked with increasing GHG emissions, since well-defined long-term linear relationships (r2 = 0.99) were observed between continental and global average air temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentration observed at the NOAA Lab in Mauna Loa in the last 59 years. While the local and regional forcing effects remain to be fully unraveled, our study provided a valid and strong scientific sound evidence that climate change occurred in Piracicaba, southeastern Brazil, in the last 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic activity and the associated gas emissions into the atmosphere often result in adverse air quality conditions and present a hazard to human health and the environment. Building on a decade‐long effort to provide operational surface sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol forecasts for the State of Hawai'i, we present an air quality modeling framework called VogCast. VogCast is designed to simplify ensemble air quality prediction on a regional scale by linking together multiple state‐of‐the‐art models of meteorology, emissions, and dispersion. The framework is open‐source and introduces a new dynamic plume‐rise algorithm for distributing pollutants vertically. Using radar and satellite data, we demonstrate that VogCast reasonably captured the mean injection height, the location, and the general envelope of the vog plume during Mauna Loa's 2022 eruption. The results suggest that during the 12‐day eruption period model performance varied between days with trade and non‐trade wind conditions. Our findings also highlight the importance of sulfur dioxide emission rate and vent parameter inputs for improving forecast accuracy. The broad goal of this work is to better our understanding of vog dispersion and improve air quality prediction for impacted communities. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic activity often results in poor air quality for communities downwind of active eruptions. In Hawai'i, forecasts of volcanic air pollution (vog) are used to provide early warning and help reduce negative impacts from vog exposure. In this paper, we introduce a new air quality modeling framework called VogCast designed to simplify and improve the accuracy of existing surface air quality forecasts in Hawai'i. We use radar and satellite data to assess the ability of VogCast to capture vog dispersion during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption. Our findings suggest VogCast is able to reasonably predict the height and general location of the vog plume. We also show that both volcanic gas emission rates and meteorology have a strong impact on model performance. The broad goal of this work is to better our understanding of vog dispersion and improve air quality prediction for impacted communities. Key Points: VogCast is a Python‐based modular open‐source air quality modeling framework for volcanic gas emissionsVogCast incorporates a dynamic plume‐rise scheme for estimating plume injection heightComparison with remotely sensed data from 2022 Mauna Loa eruption suggests VogCast is able to accurately capture regional‐scale vog dispersion [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is the first to compile the accounts of Western explorers to Hawai'i who used volcanic heat. During the 1800s, Western explorers used volcanic heat when climbing and surveying Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes in Hawai'i. The explorers cooked food on steam vents and lava streams. They drank condensed water from volcanic steam and bathed in a warm basin and warm springs. They warmed themselves near steam cracks and a lava stream, lit cigarettes with Kīlauea's lava lake, and collected rocks. To confirm the presence of volcanic heat, this study uses geothermal resource maps and data from the Hawai'i Play Fairway project. The areas where the explorers used volcanic heat have a probability of volcanic heat of 0.7 to 1.0, and elevated temperatures in nearby water wells indicate heat sources. Kīlauea and Mauna Loa erupted numerous times, and the surrounding areas experienced volcanic steam releases and lava flows. The explorers used volcanic heat to facilitate not only their survival but also the Western exploration and scientific investigation of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strict registration is critical for imaging polarimetry; a highly accurate registration approach to the coronal image and imaging polarimetry of the Fe 6374 Å red coronal line have been researched in this paper. In order to improve the registration accuracy, this paper proposes the idea of image enhancement based on blind deconvolution combined with noise-adaptive fuzzy equalization algorithms. After image enhancement, the cross-correlation registration algorithm achieves better results. To diagnose a low-temperature corona, the polarization brightness of the red coronal line data and the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO)/KCor data are compared to study the structural features and polarization information of the inner corona. We found that the polarization brightness radiation of the red coronal line has overall features similar to that of the MLSO/KCor data, but it has more detailed features, such as the cavity, polar plume, and interplume characteristics. Active regions, polar plumes, and interplumes show similar performance in red coronal line intensity, polarization brightness, degree of linear polarization, K-corona, and electron density along with the radial height. An interesting finding is that the polarization brightness of the red coronal line changes drastically along with the radial height across the cavity above the solar west limb, while neither the K-corona nor the electron density changes obviously. This seems to be a piece of possible evidence indicating that the red coronal line is not unpolarized in the cavity region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyze the suitability of the high-mountain stations Mauna Loa and Izaña for Langley plot calibration of Sun photometers. Thus the aerosol optical depth (AOD) characteristics and seasonality, as well as the cloudiness, have been investigated in order to provide a robust estimation of the calibration uncertainty as well as the number of days that are suitable for Langley calibrations. The data used for the investigations belong to the AERONET and GAW-PFR networks, which maintain reference Sun photometers at these stations with long measurement records: 22 years at Mauna Loa and 15 years at Izaña. In terms of clear-sky and stable aerosol conditions, Mauna Loa (3397ma.s.l.) exhibits on average 377 Langley plots (243 morning and 134 afternoon) per year suitable for Langley plot calibration, whereas Izaña (2373ma.s.l.) shows 343 Langley plots (187 morning and 155 afternoon) per year. The background AOD (500 nm) values, on days that are favorable for Langley calibrations, are in the range 0.01-0.02 throughout the year, with well-defined seasonality that exhibits a spring maximum at both stations plus a slight summer increase at Izaña. The statistical analysis of the long-term determination of extraterrestrial signals yields to a calibration uncertainty of ***0.25-0.5 %, this uncertainty being smaller in the visible and near-infrared wavelengths and larger in the ultraviolet wavelengths. This is due to atmospheric variability produced by changes in several factors, mainly the AOD. The uncertainty cannot be reduced based only on quality criteria of individual Langley plots and averaging over several days is shown to reduce the uncertainty to the needed levels for reference Sun photometers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-quality long-term observational records are essential to ensure appropriate and reliable trend detection of tropospheric ozone. However, the necessity of maintaining high sampling frequency, in addition to continuity, is often under-appreciated. A common assumption is that, so long as long-term records (e.g., a span of a few decades) are available, (1) the estimated trends are accurate and precise, and (2) the impact of small-scale variability (e.g., weather) can be eliminated. In this study, we show that the undercoverage bias (e.g., a type of sampling error resulting from statistical inference based on sparse or insufficient samples, such as once-per-week sampling frequency) can persistently reduce the trend accuracy of free tropospheric ozone, even if multi-decadal time series are considered. We use over 40 years of nighttime ozone observations measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (representative of the lower free troposphere), to make this demonstration and quantify the bias in monthly means and trends under different sampling strategies. We also show that short-term meteorological variability remains a cause of an inflated long-term trend uncertainty. To improve the trend precision and accuracy due to sampling bias, two remedies are proposed: (1) a data variability attribution of colocated meteorological influence can efficiently reduce estimation uncertainty and moderately reduce the impact of sparse sampling, and (2) an adaptive sampling strategy based on anomaly detection enables us to greatly reduce the sampling bias and produce more accurate trends using fewer samples compared to an intense regular sampling strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate earthquake distribution and focal mechanisms associated with the 2018 Kīlauea volcano eruption in Hawaii. Our high‐precision earthquake relocations delineate an aseismic zone bounded by two subhorizontal bands of seismicity at 3.5 and 7 km depths beneath the eastern south flank, both of which are dominated by the shallow‐dipping reverse faulting during the 2018 activity. We interpret the deeper seismicity as related to the basal décollement that separates the volcanic edifice from the oceanic crust. The shallower seismicity is a feature exhibited in the recent activity and, which we propose, reveals a detachment that either represents the contact between Mauna Loa and Kīlauea volcanoes or coincides with the onland extension of the base of the Hilina slump. We suggest that large earthquakes, such as the 1975 Mw 7.7 and the 2018 Mw 6.9 mainshocks, are capable of triggering failures of both the basal décollement and the shallower surface. Plain Language Summary: In 2018, Kīlauea volcano in Hawaii experienced an eruption that changed the magmatic behavior in the past few decades. In this study, we use the earthquake data recorded by Hawaiian Volcano Observatory to study the seismic activity during the 2018 Kīlauea volcano eruption. We improve earthquake location accuracies using high‐precision seismic data and velocity model and find the earthquake distribution shows different characteristics from the background seismicity in the southern portion of the volcano. A planar seismicity layer at about 7 km depth, also observed in previous location catalogs, is positioned along the interface between the volcanic edifice and the oceanic crust. A shallower layer at 3.5 km depth is a new feature of the recent activity, which we propose represents the boundary between Mauna Loa and Kīlauea volcanoes or the onland extension of a large submarine landslide. We suggest that large earthquakes are strong enough to trigger displacements at both surfaces. The discovery of the new shallower plane will also impact our understanding of slow earthquakes in the volcano. Key Points: A high‐precision relocation catalog is available for the earthquakes during the 2018 Kīlauea eruptionA new band of shallow microearthquakes at 3.5 km depth is revealed beneath the south flank of Kīlauea volcanoThis shallow layer may coincide with either the contact between Mauna Loa and Kīlauea volcanoes or the base of the Hilina slump [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High quality long-term observational records are essential to ensure appropriate and reliable trend detection of tropospheric ozone. However, the necessity for maintaining high sampling frequency, in addition to continuity, is often under-appreciated. A common assumption is that so long as long-term records (e.g., span of a few decades) are available, (1) the estimated trends are accurate and precise, and (2) the impact of small-scale variability (e.g., weather) can be eliminated. In this study we show that the undercoverage bias (e.g., a type of sampling error resulting from statistical inference based on sparse or insufficient samples, such as once-per-week sampling frequency) can persistently reduce the trend accuracy of free tropospheric ozone, even if multi-decadal time series are considered. We use over 40 years of nighttime ozone observations measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (representative of the lower free troposphere) to make this demonstration, and quantify the bias in monthly means and trends under different sampling strategies. We also show that short-term meteorological variability remains a cause for an inflated long-term trend uncertainty. To improve the trend precision and accuracy due to sampling bias, two remedies are proposed: (1) a data variability attribution of colocated meteorological influence can efficiently reduce estimation uncertainty and moderately reduce the impact of sparse sampling; and (2) an adaptive sampling strategy based on anomaly detection enables us to greatly reduce the sampling bias, and produce more accurate trends using fewer samples compared to an intense regular sampling strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The generalized extreme value distribution, generalized Pareto distribution, Pareto type-I distribution, Pareto type-II distribution, Burr distribution, log-logistic distribution, Fréchet distribution, log-normal distribution, log-Cauchy distribution, Lévy distribution, and Dagum distribution are fitted to four data-sets consisting of surface-level ozone for Weaverville, California (WVR); Tundra Lab, Niwot Ridge, Colorado (TUN); South Pole, Antarctica (SPO); and Mauna Loa, Hawaii (MLO) sites in the USA. Based on the probability distribution with the smallest Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, corrected Akaike information criterion, mean square error, mean absolute deviation, and maximum deviation values and probability-probability plots, the Dagum distribution emerged as the best fitting distribution for Weaverville, the Burr distribution emerged as the best fitting distribution for Niwot Ridge and Mauna Loa, and the log-Cauchy distribution emerged as the best fitting distribution for the South Pole site. The value at risk for each of the ozone sites is given and a backtest based on the Kupiec test is used to verify the appropriateness of the selected distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two hypotheses are tested: 1) monitoring stations (e.g., Mauna Loa) are not able to measure changes in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 that are generated by changes in terrestrial vegetation at distant locations; 2) changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide do not affect terrestrial vegetation at large scales under conditions that now exist in situ, by estimating statistical models of the relationship between satellite measurements of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa and Point Barrow. To go beyond simple correlations, the notion of Granger causality is used. Results indicate that the authors are able to identify locations where and months when disturbances to the terrestrial biota “Granger cause” atmospheric CO2. The authors are also able to identify locations where and months when disturbances to the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide generate changes in NDVI. Together, these results provide large-scale support for a CO2 fertilization effect and an independent empirical basis on which observations at monitoring stations can be used to test hypotheses and validate models regarding effect of the terrestrial biota on atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report on the first comprehensive study of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with ∼ 25 MeV solar energetic-proton (SEP) events in 1980 – 2013 observed in the low/inner corona by the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO) Mk3 and Mk4 coronameters. Where possible, these observations are combined with space-based observations from the Solar Maximum Mission C/P, P78-1 SOLWIND, or SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs. The aim of the study is to understand directly measured (rather than inferred from proxies) CME motions in the low to midcorona and their association with SEP acceleration, and hence attempt to identify early signatures that are characteristic of SEP acceleration in ground-based CME observations that may be used to warn of impending SEP events. Although we find that SEP events are associated with CMEs that are on average faster and wider than typical CMEs observed by MLSO, a major challenge turns out to be determining reliable estimates of the CME dynamics in the low corona from the 3-min cadence Mk3/4 observations since different analysis techniques can produce inconsistent results. This complicates the assessment of what early information on a possible SEP event is available from these low-coronal observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Switzerland, two ground-based ozone microwave radiometers are operated in the vicinity of each other (ca. 40 km): the GROund-based Millimeter-wave Ozone Spectrometer (GROMOS) in Bern (Institute of Applied Physics) and the Stratospheric Ozone MOnitoring RAdiometer (SOMORA) in Payerne (MeteoSwiss). Recently, their calibration and retrieval algorithms have been fully harmonized, and updated time series are now available since 2009. Using these harmonized ozone time series, we investigate and cross-validate the strato–mesospheric ozone diurnal cycle derived from the two instruments and compare it with various model-based datasets: the dedicated GEOS-GMI Diurnal Ozone Climatology (GDOC) based on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) general circulation model, the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE) – a chemical transport model driven by ERA5 dynamics, and a set of free-running simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Overall, the two instruments show very similar ozone diurnal cycles at all seasons and pressure levels, and the models compare well with each other. There is a good agreement between the models and the measurements at most seasons and pressure levels, and the largest discrepancies can be explained by the limited vertical resolution of the microwave radiometers. However, as in a similar study over Mauna Loa, some discrepancies remain near the stratopause, at the transition region between ozone daytime accumulation and depletion. We report similar delays in the onset of the modelled ozone diurnal depletion in the lower mesosphere. Using the newly harmonized time series of GROMOS and SOMORA radiometers, we present the first observations of short-term (sub-monthly) ozone diurnal cycle variability at mid-latitudes. The short-term variability is observed in the upper stratosphere during wintertime, when the mean monthly cycle has a small amplitude and when the dynamics are more important. This is shown in the form of strong enhancements of the diurnal cycle, reaching up to 4–5 times the amplitude of the mean monthly cycle. We show that BASCOE is able to capture some of these events, and we present a case study of one such event following the minor sudden stratospheric warming of January 2015. Our analysis of this event supports the conclusions of a previous modelling study, attributing regional variability of the ozone diurnal cycle to regional anomalies in nitrogen oxide (NO x) concentrations. However, we also find periods with an enhanced diurnal cycle that do not show much change in NO x and where other processes might be dominant (e.g. atmospheric tides). Given its importance, we believe that the short-term variability of the ozone diurnal cycle should be further investigated over the globe, for instance using the BASCOE model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lava tubes are key targets in the search for life on Mars. Their basaltic walls provide protection from radiation and changing environmental conditions, which could enable life or preservation of previous life in an otherwise harsh environment. We can understand the potential for Martian life in lava tubes by studying the habitability of analog environments on Earth. In this study, we present the first characterization of the microbial life inside a pristine Mauna Loa lava tube. This study is the first to combine 16S SSU rRNA sequencing and whole genome shotgun sequencing to map the taxonomic makeup and functional potential of any lava tube community in Hawaii, enabling a deep understanding of the types of microbes that thrive in this unique environment and the metabolisms they use. We find a surprisingly high degree of niche partitioning over small spatial scales and discuss implications for life detection strategies. Based on recent bioinformatic advancements in metagenomics, we also assemble dozens of high‐quality metagenome assembled genomes from the microbes living in the lava tubes, including several novel species. Plain Language Summary: In the search for life on Mars, lava tubes are targets for astrobiology. Lava tubes provide an underground shelter, protected from radiation and the harsh climate. Analog studies here on Earth can help us understand what types of microbes live in these terrains and how best to find them. In this study, we investigate the microbial communities in a previously unexplored lava tube on the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii. We set out to characterize the microbes that live there and what capabilities enable them to survive, such as how they acquire nutrients from their environment to produce energy. We collected mineral samples in the lava tube and sequenced the DNA that we found in the minerals. We used DNA sequences to identify which microbes are present as well as which metabolisms they can use. We found that there are significant differences in the microbial make‐up of each of the samples, even though some are taken within several centimeters of each other, with implications for how to assay a region of interest on Mars. We also found several novel species. Key Points: In this undisturbed environment, communities were characterized by multiple microniches, varying widely over the scale of metersThe lava tube contained high amounts of "microbial dark matter" or uncultivated microbes that remain unclassified in taxonomic databasesAlthough the mineralogy of many of the samples we studied was sulfate‐rich, metabolisms unrelated to sulfur dominated the metagenome [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic tomography of shield volcanoes can be used to better understand its structure, formation, and evolution. Previous tomographic studies on the Island of Hawai'i used body waves from earthquakes and active sources and had limited resolution in the shallow crust. In this study, we obtained the empirical Green Functions (EGFs) and empirical Green Tensors (EGTs) from cross‐correlating and stacking of multiyear seismic ambient noise recorded on the island. The EGFs/EGTs contained fundamental mode and first higher mode Rayleigh waves. The different modes were separated with a new algorithm and their group velocities were measured. Using the group arrival times, we inverted for two‐dimensional group velocity maps, which provide, for the first time, a full coverage of the Island of Hawai'i. From the group velocity maps, we inverted for a three‐dimensional shear wave velocity model, which shows strong lateral variations and yields new insights into the structure and growth of the volcanoes on the island: Kı̄lauea's East Rift Zone has prominent high velocities at all depths, whereas the current rift zones of Mauna Loa are characterized by intermediate to high velocities only at depths greater than 1 km below ground surface, which may be attributed to their relatively short history and less developed state. The flanks of the volcanoes, some cut by fault zones, displayed low velocities at over a range of depths, generally interpreted as consisting of extrusive rocks, which could be further shattered by faulting. Plain Language Summary: Better imaging the structures of the shield volcanoes on the Island of Hawai'i is important, not only for understanding their evolution, but also for forecasting and mitigating future volcanic hazards. In this study, we used the waves propagating along the Earth's surface to image the shallow structures of the entire Island of Hawai'i. Our velocity model shows that Kı̄lauea's East Rift Zone has high‐velocities, compared with the intermediate to high‐velocities of Mauna Loa's rift zones, which suggests the existence of large intrusive rock cores in Kı̄lauea's East Rift Zone. Multiple low‐velocity anomalies are imaged on the volcano flanks, interpreted as consisting of extrusive volcanic rocks. The low velocities on the flanks co‐located with the fault zones are interpreted as potentially further fractured debris produced by faulting. Overall, the new velocity model opens a window into the shallow volcano‐tectonic structures on the Island of Hawai'i, enabling a better understanding of the formation and structure of the Hawaiian shield volcanoes as well as the propagation of seismic waves in the shallow crust. Key Points: First overtone Rayleigh wave, in addition to the fundamental mode, emerged from ambient noise cross‐correlation on the Island of Hawai'iAn algorithm was developed and applied to the data set to automatically separate wave modes and pick group velocity dispersion curvesThe resulting three‐dimensional shear wave velocity model reveals distinct structures of the rift zones, fault zones, and volcano flanks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that the terrestrial land and seafloor contain no volcano-tectonic mega landforms expressed in relief that could be similar in size to those identified on Mars, and could have analogous structure and origin to the giant landforms whose volumes of constituent rocks are (1‒2.4) × 106 km3 (Alba Patera, Olympus Mons, Arsia Mons, Ascraeus Mons, Pavonis Mons, and Elysium Mons). No fragments or traces of similar features have ever been unambiguously identified and described in geological rock sequences, not only in Mesozoic and Cenozoic rock sequences, but also in those dating back to Paleozoic time. The same applies to the older epochs on Earth. Now the topographic constituent components of Martian mega landforms have the appearance of very magnified copies of well-known and repeatedly described terrestrial volcanic edifices, viz., dominantly shield-like and lava volcanoes, lava domes, as well as calderas of various types. However, the edifices of the above types of volcanoes are not identical with their Martian counterparts as to morphology, being shorter in height and having steeper slopes. The calderas are smaller by factors of multiple times. The Martian volcanic landforms are much older. There is a unique edifice, namely, Olympus Mons, a mega landform that stands in a large glacier sheet and for whose origin glacial processes are also responsible. It is classified as belonging to the type of giant tuyas. Its mini analogues are glacial subaerial tuyas of different ages and parameters that have been subjected to glaciation in volcanic areas on Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Fourth paper in series on a geothermal resource assessment across the State of Hawaii. • Provides results of groundwater sampling in 10, and geophysics in 3, areas of state. • Developed new method for computing topographic stress. • Present updated statewide resource probability and confidence maps. • Updated roadmap for next phase of exploration activities. This paper is the fourth in a series on a play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawai'i. Here we describe recent exploration activities that include groundwater sampling in ten locations statewide, as well as geophysical surveys on Lāna'i, across the SW rift of Haleakalā Volcano (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea Volcano (Hawai'i Island). We derive a first-order method for computing topographic stress using Green's functions, finding that topography can induce appreciable crustal stress. We develop a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and topographic stresses into our previously published equations to calculate resource probability and confidence. We incorporate newly collected and modeled data into our calculations to update statewide maps of probability and confidence. Lāna'i Island and southeast Mauna Kea are identified as the top targets for exploratory drilling. The east rift of Haleakalā Volcano, the southern-most region of Mauna Loa's SW rift (Hawai'i Island), and central Kauai are identified as targets for geophysical surveying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the trend of mean seasonal and annual temperatures of the Southern Hemisphere was calculated based on the HadCRUT5 and NASA-GISS data networks, for the period 1901-2021 and 1951-2021. In order to determine the possible effects on temperature, man, or nature, the relationship with CO2 concentration, GHG (greenhouse gases) radiation exposure, and teleconnections ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) was examined. The obtained results indicate that there is a significant increasing trend of seasonal and annual temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere, which intensified in the period between 1951 and 2021 (from 0.11 to 0.12 °C per decade). According to climate models, one of the indicators of the dominance of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect is the polar amplification (more intense temperature rise going from the equator to the poles). However, polar amplification was not recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, due to the fact that there was the smallest increase in temperature in the belt between 44°S-64°S. Moreover, in the mentioned zone, the positive trend was smaller in the period between 1951 and 2021 than in the period between 1901 and 2021, which was not to be expected. Nevertheless, the Southern Hemisphere temperature showed a statistically significantly strong correlation with the concentration of CO2 observed at the Mauna Loa station. It was also found that there is a significant relationship between the energy impact of greenhouse gases and the Southern Hemisphere temperature, which is logical, because with the growth of GHG, positive radiative forcing increases. When it comes to the impact of telecommunications, both considered teleconnections (ENSO and AAO) have an impact on changes in the temperature of the Southern Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An adaptive model is proposed to describe time-varying seasonal effects. The seasonal average function is constructed using an iterative algorithm that provides a neat decomposition of the signal into a generalized trend, seasonal and residual components. By a trend, we mean long-term evolutionary changes in the average signal level, both unidirectional and chaotic, in the form of a slow random drift. This algorithm allows one to obtain unbiased estimates for each of the signal components, even in the presence of a significant number of missing observations. The series length is not required to be a multiple of an integer number of years. In contrast to the usual "Climate Normals" (CN) model, the considered adaptive model of seasonal effects assumes a continuous slow change in the properties of the seasonal component over time. The degree of allowable variability in seasonal effects from year to year is entered as a tunable parameter of the model. In particular, this allows one to show the dynamics of the growth of the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations in time in the form of a continuous (smooth) function without necessarily linking these changes to predetermined calendar epochs. The algorithm was tested on the atmospheric CO2 concentration monitoring series at Barrow, Mauna Loa, Tutuila, and South Pole stations located at different latitudes. The form of the seasonal variation was estimated, and the average amplitude of the seasonal variation and the rate of its change at each station were calculated. Noticeable differences in the dynamics of the studied parameters between stations are demonstrated. Mean amplitude of seasonal variation in CO2 concentration at Barrow, Mauna Loa, Tutuila, and South Pole stations in the epoch 2010–2019 was estimated as 18.15, 7.08, 1.30, and 1.26 ppm, respectively, and the average rate of increase in the amplitude of the seasonal variation in the increase in CO2 concentration in the interval 1976–2019 is 0.085, 0.0100, 0.0165, and 0.0031 ppm/year. In relative terms, the increase is 0.57 ± 0.03, 0.11 ± 0.02, 2.24 ± 0.24, and 0.27 ± 0.04% per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contrasting dynamics between Mauna Loa and Kīlauea have been studied over the last 100 years from multiple viewpoints. The fact that dynamic changes of one volcano trigger a dynamic response of the other volcano indicates a connection may exist. Petrological works show a direct relationship between the magmatic systems of these two volcanoes is not possible. We analysed DInSAR data and GPS measurements of ground deformation patterns associated with the activity of Mauna Loa and Kīlauea volcanoes. The DInSAR SBAS dataset spans the interval between 2003 and 2010, and was acquired along ascending and descending orbits of the ENVISAT (ESA) satellite under different look angles. Of the 10 tracks that cover the Big Island (Hawai'i), 4 cover both volcanic edifices. Using GPS measurements, we computed the areal strain on 15 triplets of stations for Kīlauea volcano and 11 for Mauna Loa volcano. DInSAR data was analysed by applying Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to decompose the time-varying ground deformation pattern of both volcanoes. The results revealed anticorrelated ground deformation behaviour of the main calderas of Mauna Loa and Kīlauea, meaning that the opposite response is seen in the ground deformation of one volcano with respect to the other. At the same time, Kīlauea exhibits a more complex pattern, with an additional component, which appears not to be correlated with the dynamics of Mauna Loa. The GPS areal strain time series support these findings. To corroborate and help interpret the results, we performed inverse modelling of the observed ground deformation pattern using analytical source models. The results indicate that the ground deformation of Mauna Loa is associated with a dike-shaped source located at 6.2 km depth. In comparison, the anticorrelated ground deformation of Kīlauea is associated with a volumetric source at 1.2 km depth. This excludes a hydraulic connection as a possible mechanism to explain the anticorrelated behaviour; instead, we postulate a stress-transfer mechanism. To support this hypothesis, we performed a 3D numerical modelling of stress and strain fields in the study area, determining the elastic interaction of each source over the others. The most relevant finding is that the Mauna Loa shallow plumbing system can affect the shallowest magmatic reservoir of Kīlauea, while the opposite scenario is unlikely. Conversely, the second independent component observed at Kīlauea is associated to a sill-shaped source located at a depth of 3.5 km, which is less affected by this interaction process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During effusive volcanic crises, the eruption and propagation of lava flows pose a significant hazard to nearby populations, homes, and infrastructure. Consequently, timely lava flow forecasts are a critical need for volcano observatory and emergency management operations. Previous lava flow modeling tools are typically either too slow to produce timely forecasts, or are fast, but lack critical aspects of lava physics or important forecasting outputs. In particular, the strong thermal stratification present in laminar, high‐Prandtl number flows has generally been neglected. Bulk rheological changes have previously been computed from cell‐averaged temperatures, assuming that the flow is thermally mixed. Here, we detail the development and initial testing of Lava2d, a new two‐dimensional depth‐averaged finite volume model of lava flow propagation over natural terrain which accounts for bulk rheological changes due to thermorheological stratification. We use a novel approach to energy conservation based on tracking cooling and solidifying at the flow base and at the moving flow surface, allowing for the estimation of more realistic vertical thermorheological profiles, while maintaining computational efficiency, producing very timely model runs. We validate our approach with three examples: comparison with theoretical propagation of crust‐dominated lava flows, comparison with a large‐scale molten basalt experiment from the Syracuse University Lava Project, and efficiency testing and comparison with the initial phase of the 1984 Mauna Loa lava flows. Our model is shown to produce rapid, realistic forecasts, making it a good candidate for operationalization in active volcanic regions such as in Hawai'i. Plain Language Summary: During volcanic eruptions, lava flows pose a significant hazard to nearby populations, homes, and infrastructure. During lava flow crises, forecasts of lava flow advance, coverage, and arrival time can significantly help volcano observatories and emergency managers perform their operations. The most realistic forecasts are made from simulations of lava flows, which include a model of how lava flows cool and solidify as they travel. Although some models use realistic cooling, they are generally too slow to be used in emergencies. Most previous lava flow models have instead estimated this cooling by assuming that temperature within a lava flow does not vary significantly with depth; however, this assumption is not realistic. Real lavas are much cooler at the surface and base than in their cores. This difference has a large impact on the lava's overall speed. Here, we show the development of Lava2d, a new model of lava flow which directly incorporates these temperature differences. We test our model using theory, experiments, and comparison with a large natural lava flow, showing that our model produces realistic simulations very quickly. Key Points: Strong thermorheological stratification significantly impacts lava flow emplacement and coolingWe have developed a new depth‐averaged finite volume lava flow model (Lava2d) incorporating this stratificationThis model is capable of producing realistic inundation and advance rate forecasts on operational timescales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper introduces a newly compiled data set of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) measurements from 1988 through 2010 at Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO), Hawaii, USA. The data are from two samplers: one running only during nighttime hours over multiple days and another running continuously over the same days. The objective of the night-only schedule is to capture samples from Pacific background air masses transported in the free troposphere with minimal contamination from local and marine emissions. Elements characteristic of soils generally exhibit similar concentrations between the continuous and night-only samples, which suggests Pacific background air masses are responsible for the majority of the fine soil aerosol observed at MLO. Sulfur concentrations in the continuous samples often substantially exceed those in night-only samples, suggesting that local sources contribute to the daytime S concentrations at MLO. Trends estimated from Thiel-Sen regression for all 23 years are 1.3% and −1.7% per year for S and Fe (significant at p = 0.05) in the night-only samples; S and Fe trends in the last 10 years are in the same directions and stronger (4.2% and −4.4% per year). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article focuses on Mauna Loa Curve initiated by chemist Charles Keeling. Keeling Curve measured the carbon dioxide concentration of air on the active volcano Mauna Loa, Hawaii which is considered as the fever curve of the world. It is stated that the curve represents the life's work of Keeling. The Mauna Loa measurements indicated a rise since carbon dioxide concentration has been assessed in the upper troposphere by dozens of balloon flights and after World War II by rockets. The curve is a high precision analytical method that finds the origin of the carbon source.

Two species of the Mecyclothorax argutor (Sharp, 1903) species-group, M. neonomas sp. nov. and M. brunneonubiger sp. nov., are newly described from Mauna Loa volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Mecyclothorax neonomas is most similar morphologically to M. swezeyi Liebherr, 2008 of Mauna Kea and is therefore proposed as its adelphotaxon. Conversely, the adelphotaxon proposed for M. brunneonubiger is M. blackburnianus Liebherr, 2008, precinctive to Kohala volcano, Island of Hawai'i. Based on the younger geological age of origin of Mauna Loa relative to Mauna Kea and Kohala, it is hypothesized these two newly described, sympatric species arose via progressive colonization of Mauna Loa during development of the geologically dynamic Island of Hawai'i. A revised key to all Mecyclothorax species known from Hawai'i Island is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2015−2016 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, but its influence on the carbon balance is less clear. Using Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO2 observations, we found both detrended atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) and CO2 seasonal‐cycle amplitude (SCA) of 2015−2016 were much higher than that of other El Niño events. The simultaneous high CGR and SCA were unusual, because our analysis of long‐term CO2 observations at Mauna Loa revealed a significantly negative correlation between CGR and SCA. Atmospheric inversions and terrestrial ecosystem models indicate strong northern land carbon uptake during spring but substantially reduced carbon uptake (or high emissions) during early autumn, which amplified SCA but also resulted in a small anomaly in annual carbon uptake of northern ecosystems in 2015−2016. This negative ecosystem carbon uptake anomaly in early autumn was primarily due to soil water deficits and more litter decomposition caused by enhanced spring productivity. Our study demonstrates a decoupling between seasonality and annual carbon cycle balance in northern ecosystems over 2015−2016, which is unprecedented in the past five decades of El Niño events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We sequenced the complete mitochondrial genomes of one Iolania perkinsi (Kirkaldy 1902) and one Oliarus cf. filicicola (Kirkaldy 1909) planthopper (Hemiptera: Fulgoroidea: Cixiidae) from Volcano Village, located on the eastern flank of Mauna Loa. The I. perkinsi complete mitogenome is 14,949 bp in length and contains 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNAs and 2 rRNAs. The O. cf. filicicola nearly complete mitogenome is 15,196 bp in length due to an expanded (but incomplete) control region, and contains all of the typical metazoan genes: 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNAs and two rRNAs. Relative to the inferred ancestral gene order of insect mitochondrial genomes, no rearrangements were identified in either species. In addition to the shorter control region in I. perkinsi, the differences between the two mitogenomes consist of longer cox1, cox2, cob, nad1, nad5, nad6 genes but shorter nad4 gene in I. perkinsi relative to O. cf. filicicola. These mitogenomes represent the first sequences from species within the Hawaiian Cixiidae. The sequence data here will provide a foundation for continued studies of speciation patterns and dynamics of evolutionary radiation across Hawaiian planthoppers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

"Surges" in magma supply from the mantle can lead to significant changes in eruptive behavior, thus their early identification is critical to long‐term eruption forecasting. Here, we document and analyze two order‐of‐magnitude increases in seismicity in the upper mantle beneath southern Hawaiʻi between 2015 and 2020. We interpret the anomalous seismicity, which involved the rapid formation of new multiplets and a change in fault‐plane solution orientations relative to pre‐2015 events, as reflecting a substantial increase, or "surge" in mantle‐derived magma, and we suggest that the intruded magma has been driving concurrent unrest at Mauna Loa, Kīlauea, and Lōʻihi Volcanoes through mechanical stress transfer. Plain Language Summary: The rate of earthquakes in the upper mantle beneath the southern part of the Island of Hawaiʻi increased strongly in 2015, and again in 2019. The characteristics of the earthquakes that occurred between 2015 and 2020 indicate that they are caused by the emplacement of new magma deep beneath Hawai'i. The timing of unrest at the neighboring volcanoes Kīlauea, Mauna Loa, and Lōʻihi is coincident with the increases in deep earthquake activity, indicating that the newly emplaced magma is squeezing the plumbing systems of the neighboring volcanoes and causing them to deform and have more shallow earthquakes. Key Points: The rate of deep earthquakes beneath southern Hawai'i increased significantly in 2015, and again in 2019The 2015–2020 deep earthquakes are consistent with magma intrusionIncreases in seismicity are coincident with unrest at Mauna Loa, Kīlauea, and Lōʻihi Volcanoes, indicating a possible causal relationship [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen oxides (NOx≡NO+NO2) in the NOx -limited upper troposphere (UT) are long-lived and so have a large influence on the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere and formation of the greenhouse gas ozone. Models misrepresent NOx in the UT, and observations to address deficiencies in models are sparse. Here we obtain a year of near-global seasonal mean mixing ratios of NO2 in the UT (450–180 hPa) at 1∘×1∘ by applying cloud-slicing to partial columns of NO2 from TROPOMI. This follows refinement of the cloud-slicing algorithm with synthetic partial columns from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. TROPOMI, prior to cloud-slicing, is corrected for a 13 % underestimate in stratospheric NO2 variance and a 50 % overestimate in free-tropospheric NO2 determined by comparison to Pandora total columns at high-altitude free-tropospheric sites at Mauna Loa, Izaña, and Altzomoni and MAX-DOAS and Pandora tropospheric columns at Izaña. Two cloud-sliced seasonal mean UT NO2 products for June 2019 to May 2020 are retrieved from corrected TROPOMI total columns using distinct TROPOMI cloud products that assume clouds are reflective boundaries (FRESCO-S) or water droplet layers (ROCINN-CAL). TROPOMI UT NO2 typically ranges from 20–30 pptv over remote oceans to >80 pptv over locations with intense seasonal lightning. Spatial coverage is mostly in the tropics and subtropics with FRESCO-S and extends to the midlatitudes and polar regions with ROCINN-CAL, due to its greater abundance of optically thick clouds and wider cloud-top altitude range. TROPOMI UT NO2 seasonal means are spatially consistent (R=0.6 –0.8) with an existing coarser spatial resolution (5 ∘ latitude × 8 ∘ longitude) UT NO2 product from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). UT NO2 from TROPOMI is 12–26 pptv more than that from OMI due to increase in NO2 with altitude from the OMI pressure ceiling (280 hPa) to that for TROPOMI (180 hPa), but possibly also due to altitude differences in TROPOMI and OMI cloud products and NO2 retrieval algorithms. The TROPOMI UT NO2 product offers potential to evaluate and improve representation of UT NOx in models and supplement aircraft observations that are sporadic and susceptible to large biases in the UT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An experiment was conducted to study turbulence along a 149-km path between the Mauna Loa and Haleakala mountain tops using digital cameras and light-emitting diode (LED) beacons. Much of the path is over the ocean, and a large portion of the path is 3 km above sea level. On the Mauna Loa side, six LED beacons were placed in a roughly linear array with pair spacings from 7 to 62 m. From the Haleakala side, a pair of cameras separated by 83.8 cm observed these beacons. Turbulence along the path induces tilts on the wavefronts, which results in displacements of the LED spots in the images. The image motion is caused by unwanted noise sources such as camera platform motion. Differential motion between spots cancels much of this noise, and this differential motion is weighted by the turbulence along the path in different ways depending on the geometry between the sources and the cameras. A camera motion insensitive weighting function is developed to deal with this observational issue. A linear combination of these weighting functions is then used to generate a composite weighting function, which better rejects turbulence near the sources and receivers and is most sensitive to turbulence in the portion of the path out over the ocean. This technique is used to estimate turbulence in this region. The long range involved caused very strong scintillation in the image, which added new challenges to the data processing. A resulting estimate for Cn2 of 4 × 10 − 17 m − 2 / 3 is in good agreement with the Hufnagel–Valley HV5/7 model and the results of numerical weather modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosol backscatter coefficients were calculated using multiwavelength aerosol extinction products from the SAGE II and III/ISS instruments (SAGE: Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment). The conversion methodology is presented, followed by an evaluation of the conversion algorithm's robustness. The SAGE-based backscatter products were compared to backscatter coefficients derived from ground-based lidar at three sites (Table Mountain Facility, Mauna Loa, and Observatoire de Haute-Provence). Further, the SAGE-derived lidar ratios were compared to values from previous balloon and theoretical studies. This evaluation includes the major eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, followed by the atmospherically quiescent period beginning in the late 1990s. Recommendations are made regarding the use of this method for evaluation of aerosol extinction profiles collected using the occultation method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p <.01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing‐down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO2 fertilization. This challenges the view that CO2 fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land–atmosphere CO2 flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC), ground-based measurements obtained from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) stratospheric ozone lidar and the NOAA stratospheric aerosol lidar at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over the past 2 decades were used to investigate the impact of volcanic eruptions and pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) smoke plumes on the stratospheric aerosol load above Hawaii since 1999. Measurements at 355 and 532 nm conducted by these two lidars revealed a color ratio of 0.5 for background aerosols and small volcanic plumes and 0.8 for a PyroCb plume recorded on September 2017. Measurements of the Nabro plume by the JPL lidar in 2011–2012 showed a lidar ratio of (64±12.7) sr at 355 nm around the center of the plume. The new Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) Level 3 and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III-ISS) stratospheric aerosol datasets were compared to the ground-based lidar datasets. The intercomparison revealed a generally good agreement, with vertical profiles of extinction coefficient within 50 % discrepancy between 17 and 23 km above sea level (a.s.l.) and 25 % above 23 km a.s.l. The stratospheric aerosol depth derived from all of these datasets shows good agreement, with the largest discrepancy (20 %) being observed between the new CALIOP Level 3 and the other datasets. All datasets consistently reveal a relatively quiescent period between 1999 and 2006, followed by an active period of multiple eruptions (e.g., Nabro) until early 2012. Another quiescent period, with slightly higher aerosol background, lasted until mid-2017, when a combination of extensive wildfires and multiple volcanic eruptions caused a significant increase in stratospheric aerosol loading. This loading maximized at the very end of the time period considered (fall 2019) as a result of the Raikoke eruption, the plume of which ascended to 26 km altitude in less than 3 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial differences in the monthly baseline CO2 since 1992 from Mauna Loa (mlo, 19.5 ∘ N, 155.6 ∘ W, 3379 m), Cape Grim (cgo, 40.7 ∘ S, 144.7 ∘ E, 94 m), and South Pole (spo, 90 ∘ S, 2810 m) are examined for consistency between four monitoring networks. For each site pair, a composite based on the average of NOAA, CSIRO, and two independent Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) analysis methods is presented. Averages of the monthly standard deviations are 0.25, 0.23, and 0.16 ppm for mlo–cgo, mlo–spo, and cgo–spo respectively. This high degree of consistency and near-monthly temporal differentiation (compared to CO2 growth rates) provide an opportunity to use the composite differences for verification of global carbon cycle model simulations. Interhemispheric CO2 variation is predominantly imparted by the mlo data. The peaks and dips of the seasonal variation in interhemispheric difference act largely independently. The peaks mainly occur in May, near the peak of Northern Hemisphere (NH) terrestrial photosynthesis/respiration cycle. February–April is when interhemispheric exchange via eddy processes dominates, with increasing contributions from mean transport via the Hadley circulation into boreal summer (May–July). The dips occur in September, when the CO2 partial pressure difference is near zero. The cross-equatorial flux variation is large and sufficient to significantly influence short-term Northern Hemisphere growth rate variations. However, surface–air terrestrial flux anomalies would need to be up to an order of magnitude larger than found to explain the peak and dip CO2 difference variations. Features throughout the composite CO2 difference records are inconsistent in timing and amplitude with air–surface fluxes but are largely consistent with interhemispheric transport variations. These include greater variability prior to 2010 compared to the remarkable stability in annual CO2 interhemispheric difference in the 5-year relatively El Niño-quiet period 2010–2014 (despite a strong La Niña in 2011), and the 2017 recovery in the CO2 interhemispheric gradient from the unprecedented El Niño event in 2015–2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Progress in our understanding of the solar corona requires that the results of advanced magnetohydrodynamic models driven by measured magnetic fields, and particularly the underlying heating models, be thoroughly compared with coronal observations. The comparison has so far mainly concerned the global morphology of the corona, synthetic images calculated from the models being compared with observed images. We go one step further by performing detailed quantitative comparisons between the calculated polarized radiance p B using the three-dimensional electron density produced by MHD models and well calibrated polarized images obtained by the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph LASCO-C2 coronagraph complemented by ground-based images when available from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory Mark IV and K-Cor instruments to extend the comparison to the inner coronal region 1.0 – 2.5 R ⊙ , which is inaccessible to C2. We take advantage of the high-resolution and high-quality MHD predictions performed for several solar eclipses (1 August 2008, 11 July 2010, 13 November 2012, and 21 August 2017) and for the first perihelion passage of the Parker Solar Probe (5 November 2018) using two different three-dimensional MHD models relying on either a thermodynamic or a wave-turbulence-driven methodologies to heat the corona. Both models are generally able to match the observed structure and photometry of the corona albeit with various degrees of fidelity for which there is no obvious explanation. However, two limitations emerge, the complexity of coronae of the maximum type and the time lapse between the completion of the magnetograph measurements and the prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retrievals of vertical profiles of key atmospheric gases provide a critical long-term record from ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) solar absorption measurements. However, the characterization of the retrieved vertical profile structure can be difficult to validate, especially for gases with large vertical gradients and spatial–temporal variability such as water vapor. In this work, we evaluate the accuracy of the most common water vapor isotope (H216O , hereafter WV) FTIR retrievals in the lower and upper troposphere–lower stratosphere. Coincident high-quality vertically resolved WV profile measurements obtained from 2010 to 2016 with balloon-borne NOAA frost point hygrometers (FPHs) are used as reference to evaluate the performance of the retrieved profiles at two sites: Boulder (BLD), Colorado, and at the mountaintop observatory of Mauna Loa (MLO), Hawaii. For a meaningful comparison, the spatial–temporal variability has been investigated. We present results of comparisons among FTIR retrievals with unsmoothed and smoothed FPH profiles to assess WV vertical gradients. Additionally, we evaluate the quantitative impact of different a priori profiles in the retrieval of WV. An orthogonal linear regression analysis shows the best correlation among tropospheric layers using ERA-Interim (ERA-I) a priori profiles and biases are lower for unsmoothed comparisons. In Boulder, we found a negative bias of 0.02±1.9 % (r=0.95) for the 1.5–3 km layer. A larger negative bias of 11.1±3.5 % (r=0.97) was found in the lower free troposphere layer of 3–5 km attributed to rapid vertical change of WV, which is not always captured by the retrievals. The bias improves in the 5–7.5 km layer (1.0±5.3 %, r=0.94). The bias remains at about 13 % for layers above 7.5 km but below 13.5 km. At MLO the spatial mismatch is significantly larger due to the launch of the sonde being farther from the FTIR location. Nevertheless, we estimate a negative bias of 5.9±4.6 % (r=0.93) for the 3.5–5.5 km layer and 9.9±3.7 % (r=0.93) for the 5.5–7.5 km layer, and we measure positive biases of 6.2±3.6 % (r=0.95) for the 7.5–10 km layer and 12.6 % and greater values above 10 km. The agreement for the first layer is significantly better at BLD because the air masses are similar for both FTIR and FPH. Furthermore, for the first time we study the influence of different WV a priori profiles in the retrieval of selected gas profiles. Using NDACC standard retrievals we present results for hydrogen cyanide (HCN), carbon monoxide (CO), and ethane (C2H6) by taking NOAA FPH profiles as the ground truth and evaluating the impact of other WV profiles. We show that the effect is minor for C2H6 (bias <0.5 % for all WV sources) among all vertical layers. However, for HCN we found significant biases between 6 % for layers close to the surface and 2 % for the upper troposphere depending on the WV profile source. The best results (reduced bias and precision and r values closer to unity) are always found for pre-retrieved WV. Therefore, we recommend first retrieving WV to use in subsequent retrieval of gases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The near-infrared (NIR) part of the solar spectrum is of prime importance for solar physics and climatology, directly intervening in the Earth's radiation budget. Despite its major role, available solar spectral irradiance (SSI) NIR datasets, space-borne or ground-based, present discrepancies caused by instrumental or methodological reasons. We present new results obtained from the PYR-ILIOS SSI NIR ground-based campaign, which is a replication of the previous IRSPERAD campaign which took place in 2011 at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory (IZO). We used the same instrument and primary calibration source of spectral irradiance. A new site was chosen for PYR-ILIOS: the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) in Hawaii (3397 m a.s.l.), approximately 1000 m higher than IZO. Relatively to IRSPERAD, the methodology of monitoring the traceability to the primary calibration source was improved. The results as well as a detailed error budget are presented. We demonstrate that the most recent results, from PYR-ILIOS and other space-borne and ground-based experiments, show an NIR SSI lower than the previous reference spectrum, ATLAS3, for wavelengths above 1.6µm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional calculations of the global carbon budget infer the land sink as a residual between emissions, atmospheric accumulation, and the ocean sink. Thus, the land sink accumulates the errors from the other flux terms and bears the largest uncertainty. Here, we present a Bayesian fusion approach that combines multiple observations in different carbon reservoirs to optimize the land (B) and ocean (O) carbon sinks, land use change emissions (L), and indirectly fossil fuel emissions (F) from 1980 to 2014. Compared with the conventional approach, Bayesian optimization decreases the uncertainties in B by 41% and in O by 46%. The L uncertainty decreases by 47%, whereas F uncertainty is marginally improved through the knowledge of natural fluxes. Both ocean and net land uptake (B + L) rates have positive trends of 29± 8 and 37± 17 Tg C·y-2 since 1980, respectively. Our Bayesian fusion of multiple observations reduces uncertainties, thereby allowing us to isolate important variability in global carbon cycle processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metrosideros polymorpha, a dominant tree species in the Hawaiian Islands, shows an extreme phenotypic polymorphism both across gradients of climatic/edaphic conditions and within populations, making it a potentially useful model species for evolutionary study. In order to understand how the phenotypic diversity is maintained within populations as well as across populations, we examined the diversities of several leaf and stem functional traits across five elevations and two soil substrates on the volcanic mountain of Mauna Loa, on the island of Hawaii. Leaf dry mass per area (LMA), a key leaf functional trait, was particularly focused on and analyzed in relation to its underlying components-namely, tissue LMA and trichome LMA (LMA = tissue LMA + trichome LMA). Across populations, tissue LMA increased linearly with elevation while trichome LMA showed unimodal patterns with elevation, which were better correlated with temperature and rainfall, respectively. Substantial phenotypic variations were also found within populations. Interestingly, the variations of tissue LMA were often negatively correlated to trichome LMA within populations, which contrasts with the cross-populations pattern, where a strong positive correlation between tissue LMA and trichome LMA was found. This suggests that phenotypic variations within populations were substantially influenced by local ecological processes. Soil depth (an indicator of local water availability) and tree size (an indicator of colonized timing) modestly explained the within-population variations, implying other local environmental factors and/or random processes are also important in local phenotypic diversity. This study provides an insight about how phenotypic diversity of plant species is maintained from local to landscape levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide the first detailed documentation of a lava tube cave with permanent ice on the Hawaiian Islands. 'Mauna Loa Icecave' had been surveyed in 1978; we periodically visited the cave and monitored temperature, humidity, and ice levels from 2011 to 2014. Perennial ice still blocks the lava tube at the terminal end, but a previously present large ice floor (estimated 260 m2) has disappeared. A secondary mineral deposited on the cave walls is interpreted as the result of past sustained ice levels. Airflow measurements, scallop patterns in the ice, strong temperature and humidity variations, and ice volume fluctuations indicate ventilation of the cave, which suggests that additional ice loss could occur rapidly. The scientific potential of the ice record remains to be explored, before it is lost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three independent sets of data: (i) series of filtergrams obtained in line CaII K (393.416 nm) with the ground-based telescope Precision Solar Photometric Telescope (PSPT) of Mauna Loa Solar Observatory; (ii) series of filtergrams of Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in λ160 nm and (iii) series of magnetograms of Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) of SDO have been processed to reveal reliably the existence of spatial cellular structures on the solar photosphere at scale about of 300 arcsec. This scale is intermediate between supergranules and giant cells (∼30,000 and ∼300,000 km across, respectively). To identify the different spatial structures the tens of two-dimensional power spectra ( 2DFFT) have been averaged. For one-dimensional photometric cross sections of frames, the Fourier power spectra ( FFT) and wavelet transforms (Morlet 5-th order) have been calculated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the author's perspectives on the news from "Le Monde" regarding the 399.29 part per million (ppm) carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii on May 3, 2013. He believes that it is easy for the people to accord that, in modernism, people are not equipped to handle a vast scale of events. He states that the problem of understanding the role of human agency in the existence of the phenomena the facts are attempting to document.

A potent greenhouse gas and biological irritant, tropospheric ozone is also the primary source of atmospheric hydroxyl radicals, which remove numerous hazardous trace gases from the atmosphere. Tropospheric ozone levels have increased in spring at remote sites in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere over the past few decades; this increase has been attributed to a growth in Asian precursor emissions. In contrast, 40 years of continuous measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii reveal little change in tropospheric ozone levels during spring (March-April), but a rise in autumn (September-October). Here we examine the contribution of decadal shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns to decadal variability in tropospheric ozone levels at Mauna Loa using a suite of chemistry-climate model simulations. We show that the flow of ozone-rich air from Eurasia towards Hawaii during spring weakened in the 2000s as a result of La-Niña-like decadal cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. During autumn, in contrast, the flow of ozone-rich air from Eurasia to Hawaii strengthened in the mid-1990s onwards, coincident with the positive phase of the Pacific-North American pattern. We suggest that these shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns can reconcile observed trends in tropospheric ozone levels at Mauna Loa and the northern mid-latitudes in recent decades. We conclude that decadal variability in atmospheric circulation patterns needs to be considered when attributing observed changes in tropospheric ozone levels to human-induced trends in precursor emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors present an analysis of the global midtropospheric CO2 retrieved for all-sky (clear and cloudy) conditions from measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Radiation Sounder on board the Aqua satellite in 2003-09. The global data coverage allows the identification of the set of CO2 spatial patterns and their time variability by applying principal component analysis and empirical mode decomposition. The first, dominant pattern represents 93% of the variability and exhibits the linear trend of 2 ± 0.2 ppm yr−1, as well as annual and interannual dependencies. The single-site record of CO2 at Mauna Loa compares well with variability of this pattern. The first principal component is phase shifted relative to the Southern Oscillation, indicating a causative relationship between the atmospheric CO2 and ENSO. The higher-order patterns show regional details of CO2 distribution and display the semiannual oscillation. The CO2 distributions are compared with the distribution of two major characteristics of air transport: the vertical velocity and potential temperature surfaces at the same height. In agreement with modeling, CO2 concentration closely traces the potential temperature surfaces (isentropes) in middle and high latitudes. However, its vertical transport in the tropics, where these surfaces are mostly horizontal, is suppressed. The results are in agreement with the previous results on annual and interannual CO2 time variability obtained by using the network flask data. This knowledge of the global CO2 spatial patterns can be useful in climate analyses and potentially in the challenging task of connecting CO2 sources and sinks with its distribution in the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent study of the net land carbon sink estimated using the Mauna Loa, Hawaii atmospheric CO2 record, fossil fuel estimates, and a suite of ocean models suggests that the mean of the net land carbon uptake remained approximately constant for three decades and increased after 1988/1989. Due to the large variability in the net land uptake, it is not possible to determine the exact timing and nature of the increase robustly by visual inspection. Here, we develop a general methodology to objectively determine the nature and timing of the shift in the net land uptake based on the Schwarz Information Criterion. We confirm that it is likely that an abrupt shift in the mean net land carbon uptake occurred in 1988. After taking into account the variability in the net land uptake due to the influence of volcanic aerosols and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, we find that it is most likely that there is a remaining step increase at the same time (p-values of 0.01 and 0.04 for Mauna Loa and South Pole, respectively) of about 1 Pg C/yr. Thus, we conclude that neither the effect of volcanic eruptions nor the El Niño Southern Oscillation are the causes of the sudden increase of the land carbon sink. By also applying our methodology to the atmospheric growth rate of CO2, we demonstrate that it is likely that the atmospheric growth rate of CO2 exhibits a step decrease between two fitted lines in 1988-1989, which is most likely due to the shift in the net land uptake of carbon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Aura satellite Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument is capable of measuring the HDO/H2O ratio in the lower troposphere using thermal infrared radiances between 1200 and 1350 cm-1. However, direct validation of these measurements is challenging due to a lack of in situ measured vertical profiles of the HDO/H2O ratio that are spatially and temporally co-located with the TES observations. From 11 October through 5 November 2008, we undertook a campaign to measure HDO and H2O at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii for comparison with TES observations. The Mauna Loa observatory is situated at 3.1 km above sea level or approximately 680 hPa, which is approximately the altitude where the TES HDO/H2O observations show the most sensitivity. Another advantage of comparing in situ data from this site to estimates derived from thermal IR radiances is that the volcanic rock is heated by sunlight during the day, thus providing significant thermal contrast between the surface and atmosphere; this thermal contrast increases the sensitivity to near surface estimates of tropospheric trace gases. The objective of this inter-comparison is to better characterize a bias in the TES HDO data, which had been previously estimated to be approximately 5 % too high for a column integrated value between 850 hPa and 500 hPa. We estimate that the TES HDO profiles should be corrected downwards by approximately 4.8 % and 6.3 % for Versions 3 and 4 of the data respectively. These corrections must account for the vertical sensitivity of the TES HDO estimates. We estimate that the precision of this bias correction is approximately 1.9%. The accuracy is driven by the corrections applied to the in situ HDO and H2O measurements using flask data taken during the inter-comparison campaign and is estimated to be less than 1 %. Future comparisons of TES data to accurate vertical profiles of in situ measurements are needed to refine this bias estimate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present carbon dioxide (CO2) estimates from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) on the EOS-Aura satellite launched in 2004. For observations between 40° S and 45° N, we find about 1 degree of freedom with peak sensitivity at 511 hPa. The estimated error is ∼10 ppm for a single target and 1.3-2.3 ppm for monthly averages on spatial scales of 20°×30°. Monthly spatially-averaged TES data from 2005-2008 processed with a uniform initial guess and prior are compared to CONTRAIL aircraft data over the Pacific ocean, aircraft data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site in the southern US, and the Mauna Loa and Samoa surface stations. Comparisons to Mauna Loa data show a correlation of 0.92, a standard deviation of 1.3 ppm, a predicted error of 1.2 ppm, and a ∼2% low bias, which is subsequently corrected. Comparisons to SGP aircraft data over land show a correlation of 0.67 and a standard deviation of 2.3 ppm. TES data between 40° S and 45° N for 2006-2007 are compared to surface flask data, GLOBALVIEW, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and CarbonTracker. Comparison to GLOBALVIEW-CO2 ocean surface sites shows a correlation of 0.60 which drops when TES is offset in latitude, longitude, or time. At these same locations, TES shows a 0.62 and 0.67 correlation to Carbon-Tracker at the surface and 5 km, respectively. We also conducted an observing system simulation experiment to assess the potential utility of the TES data for inverse modeling of CO2 fluxes. We find that if biases in the data and model are well characterized, the averaged data have the potential to provide sufficient information to significantly reduce uncertainty on annual estimates of regional CO2 sources and sinks. Averaged pseudo-data at 10° ×10° reduced uncertainty in flux estimates by as much as 70% for some tropical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers various information related to energy and environment from October-December 2008 in the U.S. The value for carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa in Hawaii Island, Hawaii was 384.7 ppmv, depicting the normal upward trend and an annual rise of 3.33 ppmv. The global sea ice area for the period was the same as in 1979 while human resources contribute about five percent of the annual carbon dioxide input into atmosphere. The European Union (EU) summit declaration dropped all reference to the legal implementation of the climate targets.

The monthly mean values of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration derived from in-situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, USA during 1958-2004 (the longest continuous record available in the world) are analyzed by employing the detrended fluctuation analysis to detect scaling behavior in this time series. The main result is that the fluctuations of carbon dioxide concentrations exhibit long-range power-law correlations (long memory) with lag times ranging from four months to eleven years, which correspond to 1/f noise. This result indicates that random perturbations in the carbon dioxide concentrations give rise to noise, characterized by a frequency spectrum following a power-law with exponent that approaches to one; the latter shows that the correlation times grow strongly. This feature is pointing out that a correctly rescaled subset of the original time series of the carbon dioxide concentrations resembles the original time series. Finally, the power-law relationship derived from the real measurements of the carbon dioxide concentrations could also serve as a tool to improve the confidence of the atmospheric chemistry-transport and global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports on developments related to geology as of November 2002. Possible eruption of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii Island, Hawaii; Hypothesis about the collapse of mantle plumes.

Ferric/ferrous ratios have been used to estimate the oxygen fugacity of lavas erupted in 1984 on Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawaii. Rapidly quenched lavas erupted close to vents are less oxidized than rapidly quenched lavas scooped from lava flows several kilometers away from the vents. These results demonstrate that sampling is of critical importance in determining the oxidation state of lava. The oxidation state of the vent lavas, below or at magnetite–wüstite (MW), is significantly lower than that previously reported for Hawaiian lavas (~FMQ). Similarly, rapidly quenched lavas from the ongoing Kilauea eruption and Loihi seamount, all have oxygen fugacities that are close to MW and on the low side of the range previously reported for Hawaiian lavas. From this we conclude that the initial oxygen fugacity of parental Hawaiian magmas is close to MW, not FMQ, and that previous estimates of the oxidation state of Hawaiian lavas may have been too high. This implies that the plume source of these magmas is also at or below MW, but not as reduced as the mantle source of mid-ocean ridge basalts. Additionally, Mauna Loa lavas appear to be slightly more reduced than Kilauea or Loihi lavas, perhaps indicating heterogeneous oxidation within the Hawaiian plume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]