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Driving factors are usually assumed temporally stationary in cellular automata (CA) based land use modeling, hence the persistence of their relationships. Therefore, major questions as to how much do the temporally stationary factors explain the past and future urban growth, and how long can these factors justify the projection of urban scenarios in the future, are worth further study. We selected seven explanatory driving factors to calibrate a DE-CA (differential evolution-based CA) model to simulate urban growth in Ningbo of China during 2000–2015 and project nine scenarios of urban growth from 2015 to 2060. We evaluated the effects of factors on urban growth using generalized additive models (GAM) based on fitting statistics such as accumulative deviance explained (ADE). Our results show remarkably temporal change in factor effects on the future urban growth – the ADE peaks with 34.7% in 2045 for the total projected urban growth since 2015 while that for every five years decreases continuously from 26.5% during 2000–2005 to 1.9% during 2050–2055, but slightly increase to 3.0% during 2055–2060. These indicate that the stationary factors have less strong explanatory power to the new urban areas that are farther away from the existing built-up areas. The results suggest that a 30-year period in the future is most suitable to project the urban growth scenarios, where the new urban area approximates the initial urban area. The specific best period for scenario projection elsewhere can then be identified using the method presented in this study. • We calibrated a DE-CA model using temporally stationary factors. • We simulated and projected the urban growth in Ningbo from 2000 to 2060. • We evaluated the effects of factors on urban growth using generalized additive models. • The dominant factors that drive the future urban growth differ over time. • A 30-year period in future is most suitable to project the urban growth scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore the key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A susceptible—exposed—infectious—asymptomatic—recovered (SEIAR) model was developed for the assessment. The information of each confirmed case and asymptomatic infection was collected from Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to calculate the key parameters of the model in Ningbo City, China. A total of 157 confirmed COVID-19 cases (including 51 imported cases and 106 secondary cases) and 30 asymptomatic infections were reported in Ningbo City. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increasing trend. The proportion of elder people in the asymptomatic infections was lower than younger people, and the difference was statistically significant (Fisher's Exact Test, P = 0.034). There were 22 clusters associated with 167 SARS-CoV-2 infections, among which 29 cases were asymptomatic infections, accounting for 17.37%. We found that the secondary attack rate (SAR) of asymptomatic infections was almost the same as that of symptomatic cases, and no statistical significance was observed (χ2 = 0.052, P = 0.819) by Kruskal–Wallis test. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was 1.43, which revealed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was moderate. If the interventions had not been strengthened, the duration of the outbreak would have lasted about 16 months with a simulated attack rate of 44.15%. The total attack rate (TAR) and duration of the outbreak would increase along with the increasing delay of intervention. SARS-CoV-2 had moderate transmissibility in Ningbo City, China. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increase trend. Asymptomatic infections had the same transmissibility as symptomatic infections. The integrated interventions were implemented at different stages during the outbreak, which turned out to be exceedingly effective in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The reported incidence of dengue fever increased dramatically in recent years in China. This study aimed to investigate and to assess the effectiveness of intervention implemented in a dengue outbreak in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China. Methods: Data of a dengue outbreak were collected in Ningbo City in China by a field epidemiological survey according to a strict protocol and case definition. Serum specimens of all cases were collected for diagnosis and the virological characteristics were detected by using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and gene sequencing. Vector surveillance was implemented during the outbreak to collect the larva and adult mosquito densities to calculate the Breteau Index (BI) and human biting rate (HBR), respectively. Data of monthly BI and light-trap density in 2018 were built to calculate the seasonality of the vector. A transmission mathematical model was developed to dynamic the incidence of the disease. The parameters of the model were estimated by the data of the outbreak and vector surveillance data in 2018. The effectiveness of the interventions implemented during the outbreak was assessed by the data and the modelling. Results: From 11 August to 8 September, 2018, a dengue outbreak was reported with 27 confirmed cases in a population of 5536-people community (community A) of Ningbo City. Whole E gene sequences were obtained from 24 cases and were confirmed as dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1). The transmission source of the outbreak was origin from community B where a dengue case having the same E gene sequence was onset on 30 July. Aedes albopictus was the only vector species in the area. The value of BI and HBR was 57.5 and 12 per person per hour respectively on 18 August, 2018 and decreased dramatically after interventions. The transmission model fitted well (χ2 = 6.324, P = 0.388) with the reported cases data. With no intervention, the total simulated number of the cases would be 1728 with a total attack rate (TAR) of 31.21% (95%CI: 29.99%– 32.43%). Case isolation and larva control (LC) have almost the same TAR and duration of outbreak (DO) as no intervention. Different levels of reducing HBR (rHBR) had different effectiveness with TARs ranging from 1.05% to 31.21% and DOs ranging from 27 days to 102 days. Adult vector control (AVC) had a very low TAR and DO. "LC+AVC" had a similar TAR and DO as that of AVC. "rHBR100%+LC", "rHBR100%+AVC", "rHBR100%+LC+AVC" and "rHBR100%+LC+AVC+Iso" had the same effectiveness. Conclusions: Without intervention, DENV-1 could be transmitted rapidly within a short period of time and leads to high attack rate in community in China. AVC or rHBR should be recommended as primary interventions to control rapid transmission of the dengue virus at the early stage of an outbreak. Author summary: Dengue has led to heavy disease burden in China. The reported incidence of the disease increased dramatically in recent years and cases have expanded from southern to central and northern part of China. In this study, the findings include that DENV-1 can transmit rapidly with a short period of time and leads to high attack rate in community, and that rHBR or AVC should be recommended as primary interventions to control rapid transmission of dengue virus at the early stage of an outbreak. Therefore, dengue outbreak is at high risk in many areas in China because of the potential high receptivity (widely distribution of Ae. albopictus) and vulnerability (high frequency of the importation) of the transmission. The high transmissibility of the virus makes it hard and urgent to control the outbreak. Delayed intervention (larvae control or case isolation) is hard to show its effectiveness and the interventions without delay are strongly recommended. Bed net or mosquito repellents were encouraged to use in the community to reduce HBR, and space spraying of insecticides were recommended to control adult vector during the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The reported incidence of dengue fever increased dramatically in recent years in China. This study aimed to investigate and to assess the effectiveness of intervention implemented in a dengue outbreak in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China. Methods: Data of a dengue outbreak were collected in Ningbo City in China by a field epidemiological survey according to a strict protocol and case definition. Serum specimens of all cases were collected for diagnosis and the virological characteristics were detected by using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and gene sequencing. Vector surveillance was implemented during the outbreak to collect the larva and adult mosquito densities to calculate the Breteau Index (BI) and human biting rate (HBR), respectively. Data of monthly BI and light-trap density in 2018 were built to calculate the seasonality of the vector. A transmission mathematical model was developed to dynamic the incidence of the disease. The parameters of the model were estimated by the data of the outbreak and vector surveillance data in 2018. The effectiveness of the interventions implemented during the outbreak was assessed by the data and the modelling. Results: From 11 August to 8 September, 2018, a dengue outbreak was reported with 27 confirmed cases in a population of 5536-people community (community A) of Ningbo City. Whole E gene sequences were obtained from 24 cases and were confirmed as dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1). The transmission source of the outbreak was origin from community B where a dengue case having the same E gene sequence was onset on 30 July. Aedes albopictus was the only vector species in the area. The value of BI and HBR was 57.5 and 12 per person per hour respectively on 18 August, 2018 and decreased dramatically after interventions. The transmission model fitted well (χ2 = 6.324, P = 0.388) with the reported cases data. With no intervention, the total simulated number of the cases would be 1728 with a total attack rate (TAR) of 31.21% (95%CI: 29.99%– 32.43%). Case isolation and larva control (LC) have almost the same TAR and duration of outbreak (DO) as no intervention. Different levels of reducing HBR (rHBR) had different effectiveness with TARs ranging from 1.05% to 31.21% and DOs ranging from 27 days to 102 days. Adult vector control (AVC) had a very low TAR and DO. “LC+AVC” had a similar TAR and DO as that of AVC. “rHBR100%+LC”, “rHBR100%+AVC”, “rHBR100%+LC+AVC” and “rHBR100%+LC+AVC+Iso” had the same effectiveness. Conclusions: Without intervention, DENV-1 could be transmitted rapidly within a short period of time and leads to high attack rate in community in China. AVC or rHBR should be recommended as primary interventions to control rapid transmission of the dengue virus at the early stage of an outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blastocystis is one of the important zoonotic parasites which can infect humans and various animals worldwide and has become a growing global public health concern. The study aims to obtain the data of Blastocystis infection and the information of the genetic characteristic. In the present study, 489 fecal samples were collected from diarrhea outpatients in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, and were examined the presence of Blastocystis by polymerase chain reaction combined with sequencing. A total of 10 samples (2.04%, 10/489) were positive for Blastocystis with no significant difference among sex and age groups, respectively. Eight samples were successfully sequenced, and five zoonotic ST3 and three zoonotic ST1 with two new sequences were identified. We first demonstrated the occurrence of Blastocystis infection in diarrhea outpatients in Ningbo, with two zoonotic subtypes (ST1 and ST3) and two new sequences being characterized. Meanwhile, mixed infection of Blastocystis and E. bieneusi was found which indicates the importance of investigation of multiple parasites. Finally, more extensive studies will be needed to better understand the transmission of Blastocystis at human-animal-environment interface and provide evidence for the development of one health strategies for the prevention and control of such diseases. • Blastocystis infection in diarrhea outpatients first reported in Ningbo. • Zoonotic subtypes of ST1 and ST3 and two new sequences characterized. • Mixed infection of Blastocystis and E. bieneusi identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enterocytozoon bieneusi , Cryptosporidium spp. and Cyclospora cayetanensis are three important zoonotic pathogens which were a major cause of foodborne or waterborne intestinal diseases in humans and animals. However, very little data about occurrence and genotypes of the three parasites in Ningbo in the south wing of the Yangtze River Delta, China, which is important for a tourist city. In the present study, molecular characterization of E. bieneusi , C. cayetanensis and Cryptosporidium spp. in fecal samples from 489 diarrheal outpatients were carried out. As a result, a total of 35 (7.16%, 35/489) and three (0.61%, 3/489) samples were positive for E. bieneusi and C. cayetanensis respectively. No Cryptosporidium -positive sample or mixed-infections were detected. Four known E. bieneusi genotypes (Type IV, D, I and CHN4) and 8 novel genotypes (NBH1–NBH8) were identified with type IV was the dominant genotype (n = 14), followed by genotypes D (n = 5), NBH8 (n = 5) and NBH7 (n = 3). The remaining genotypes were found in one sample each, and these genotypes were belonged to the previously described high-potential zoonotic group 1. One novel sequence named NBC315, and the other two sequences (NBC30 and NBC370) identical with the reported sequence were detected. Therefore, the existence and importance of zoonotic potential of E. bieneusi and C. cayetanensis in diarrheal outpatients in Ningbo indicates the public health threats, and more investigations should be carried out in human populations, animals and other environmental sources from the One Health perspective. • First report on zoonotic protozoan from diarrheal outpatients in Ningbo. • High positivity of E. bieneusi with novel and known zoonotic genotypes was identified. • C. cayetanensis was first characterized in Ningbo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cryptosporidium spp. and Enterocytozoon bieneusi are common and important enteric parasites that can infect humans and animals, causing diarrhoea and systemic diseases. The objectives of the present study were to examine the prevalence and genetic variations of Cryptosporidium and E. bieneusi in pigs transferred from northeastern China to Ningbo city in Zhejiang Province. Cryptosporidium spp. was detected in 0.9% (2/216) of these samples and belonged to the zoonotic species Cryptosporidium parvum. A high E. bieneusi infection rate (25.0%, 54/216) was observed in this study, with 7 possible novel ITS genotypes (JLNB-1 to JLNB-7) and 10 known genotypes (EbpA, CM11, H, CM6, pigEBITS1, EbpC, CS-4, pigEBITS5, CHS5, and Henan-Ⅳ) identified, and zoonotic EbpA was the dominant genotype. Genotypes H and pigEBITS1 were reported for the first time in pigs in China. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that all the genotypes found in these samples belonged to zoonotic group 1. These findings indicated the potential threat of Cryptosporidium and E. bieneusi to humans or the environment during cross-regional transportation. An effective management control system should be built to avoid parasitic transmission as well as other animal diseases while travelling across different regions. In further studies, attention should be given to the transmission routes and the role of pigs as a potential source of human Cryptosporidium and E. bieneusi infections in China. • A high E. bieneusi infection rate with 7 possible novel ITS genotypes and 10 known genotypes belonged to zoonotic group 1. • Cryptosporidium parvum was identified in pigs. • Parasitic transmission during animals transportation across regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]