Search

Purpose: The use of economic sanctions has grown dramatically in recent decades. Nevertheless, many arguments are presented in the public policy space regarding their effects on target populations. The author presents the first systematic analysis of the effects of sanctions on living conditions in target countries. Design/methodology/approach: This paper provides a comprehensive survey and assessment of the literature on the effects of economic sanctions on living standards in target countries. The author identifies 31 studies that apply quantitative econometric or calibration methods to cross-country and national data to assess the impact of economic sanctions on indicators of human and economic development. The author provides in-depth discussions of three sanctions episodes—Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela—that illustrate the channels through which sanctions affect living conditions in target countries. Findings: Of the 31 studies, 30 find that sanctions have negative effects on outcomes ranging from per capita income to poverty, inequality, mortality and human rights. The author provides new results showing that 54 countries—27% of all countries and 29% of the world economy— are sanctioned today, up from only 4% of countries in the 1960s. In the three cases discussed, sanctions that restricted the access of governments to foreign exchange limited the ability of states to provide essential public goods and services and generated substantial negative spillovers on private sector and nongovernmental actors. Originality/value: This is the first literature survey that systematically assesses the quantitative evidence on the effect of sanctions on living conditions in target countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Illicit financial flows have been an issue of great concern over the past decades due to the challenge they present for economic development in Africa. Illicit financial flows undermine the productivity and growth of African economies as countries lose foreign exchange and tax revenues. Countries lose financial resources needed for development programs, hence undermining social service delivery and retarding poverty reduction. To effectively combat illicit financial flows, it is imperative to examine their determinants. This study seeks to examine the determinants of illicit capital movement in the China‐Africa trade through the mechanisms of trade misinvoicing over the period 1990–2019. The IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) database is used to estimate trade misinvoicing. Estimates using mirror trade data indicate that both exports of Africa to China and imports from China to Africa are mainly underinvoiced. The net effect shows that trade misinvoicing in the China‐Africa trade results in net illicit capital outflow for about 44% of countries in Africa. The results from panel data regressions indicate that tax evasion is one of the major factors behind misinvoicing in China‐Africa trade. In addition, corruption control is found to reduce export underinvoicing, while political stability reduces both export overinvoicing and import overinvoicing. Export misinvoicing increases with the presence of natural resources in the exporting country. Other factors associated with trade misinvoicing in China‐Africa trade include openness to trade, current account deficit, and real exchange rate. The study suggests ways to reduce trade misinvoicing in China‐Africa trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The policy regarding crop rotation is relatively new. However, this policy is still being debated, because it is not yet known that a consistent harvest rotation pattern has a significant effect on harvest premiums, FFB production and harvest employee income at PT Nusaina Agro Kobi Manise. This research aims to analyze the effect of 12/14 day harvest rotation and harvest premiums on FFB production and harvest employee income. This research uses quantitative descriptive methods. Data were analyzed using SmartPLS 3.0 Software. The results of the research show the effect of implementing 12/14 day harvest rotation and harvest premiums on FFB production and harvest employee income. It is clear that implementing 12/14 day harvest rotation does not have a direct influence on FFB production and harvest employee income but the implementation of 12/14 day harvest rotation days have an indirect influence through harvest premiums on production and harvest employee income. The t-calculated path coefficient value of 12.140 is greater than the t-table value of 1.96 with a p-value of 0.00 which is smaller than 0.05 so that the variable implementing 12/14 day harvest rotation has a significant effect on the harvest premium variable. The specific indirect effect value of implementing a 12/14 day harvest rotation has an effect on the harvest premium and in turn has an effect on FFB production with a calculated t-value of 2.500 which is greater than the t-table value of 1.96 and with a p-value of 0.013 which is smaller than 0.05 so can be said to have a significant effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the long- and short-term effects of foreign exchange on Indonesia's external debts. Employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing on quarterly data from 2010 to 2019 and testing for effect asymmetry, we found a long-run cointegrating relationship between the two variables. We also found a slow adjustment to an equilibrium state following a shock. Foreign exchange demonstrates a positive long-run effect on Indonesia's external debt, while in the short-run the effect is negative. Furthermore, we found an asymmetry in the elasticities of external debt with respect to rupiah-to-US dollar exchange rate fluctuations. The positive effect of Indonesian rupiah volatility on Indonesian external debt would be more severe when the rupiah appreciates against the dollar compared to a situation of rupiah depreciation. Therefore, although a depreciation of rupiah against the US dollar under a floating foreign exchange regime adopted by Indonesia since 1997 would in the long-run increase external debt, the impact is moderate. Any short-run movement of Indonesia's external debt following a shock would be pulled back to its long-run equilibrium path. We recommend that Indonesia should maintain a floating exchange regime and allow rupiah to depreciate at a moderate rate in the long-run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore the relation between international competitiveness and currency internationalization by employing an analytical framework and applying it to RMB internationalization. Our results reaffirm that economic size, financial market development and network externalities are keys in currency internationalization. We also find that international competitiveness is a potential determinant of currency internationalization. However, a more comprehensively and fully measured index of international competitiveness than the GCI is needed to investigate the potential relation between international competitiveness and currency internationalization. The RMB could become an international reserve currency that is larger than the Japanese yen and the British pound sterling, but still lags far behind the US dollar and the euro by 2035. Given the network externalities and historical experience of currency internationalization, however, it will be a long and bumpy process for the RMB to become an international currency, particularly an international reserve currency. Exploring the relation between international competitiveness and currency internationalization; Reaffirming economic size, financial market development and network externalities as keys in currency internationalization; International competitiveness is a potential determinant of currency internationalization; The RMB could become an international reserve currency by 2035; RMB internationalization will be a long and bumpy process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign exchange (FX) options are studied in a new stochastic volatility model (the 4/2 stochastic volatility model), which includes, as special instances, the Heston model and the 3/2 model, for the exchange rate in combination with the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) dynamics for the domestic and foreign stochastic interest rates. We allow the correlation between the instantaneous volatility and the dynamics of the exchange rate, whereas the interest rates in both domestic and foreign markets are assumed to be independent of the dynamics of the exchange rate. We provide a semi-analytical formula for the price of the European FX call option via Fourier inversion. Through the change of measure technique, we derived explicit expressions for conditional characteristic functions. Our model is computationally tractable, thereby the pricing procedure is accurate and illustrates more efficiency in comparison to the Monte Carlo simulation method. Finally, we perform calibrations on market data, demonstrating that our model fits the implied volatilities well and outperforms the Heston model with CIR interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goals and effects of higher education on the economy and society have experienced numerous changes throughout history. Considering the context is crucial as institutional and policy processes in higher education evolve, differ among countries, and vary between political systems. This essay compares the utilitarian and inherent conceptual frameworks to examine the purpose of higher education and its institutional components. The analysis of various educational traditions is conducted in a critical manner, and these traditions are utilised as examples to provide insights for current policymaking. This article employs accurate conceptual associations as it recognises the inseparability of higher education from other educational levels. The significance of this lies in the organic integration of social science literature, which provides recommendations for the future based on well-established practices that were previously disregarded due to an excessive dependence on market-driven approaches. This offers novel perspectives on the significance of conceptual "bridging" and reconciliation in advancing policy-guiding theories. The discussion on the purpose of higher education analyses the current trends of growing social inequality in the Western Hemisphere, their connection to the prevalent higher education model, and the essential policy decisions needed to ensure continued growth in participation. This article contends that the prevailing emphasis on labour market-oriented policies in higher education has resulted in an escalating level of rivalry. As a result, higher education has transformed into a conventional marketplace where degrees and achievements are seen as currency that can be exchanged for value in the job market. The original purpose of education was to help people grow, but it has since changed to help with economic development. Owing to the exorbitant expenses associated with tertiary education, despite the purported transparency of regulations, only a privileged minority can actually afford it. Policymakers should contemplate adopting a hybrid paradigm that recognises both the inherent value and the practical benefits of higher education. This shift would help foster inclusive educational systems and contribute to the development of a fair and well-informed society. India is currently experiencing substantial transformations in its social, cultural, and economic sphere. While there is a decrease in job opportunities, business graduates are also lacking the necessary knowledge and skills required by the industry. To bridge the gap between academic coursework and the demands of the business world, commerce education should be comprehensive and extensive focused, and specifically designed to prioritise qualities such as mindset, corporate knowledge, personal presentation, and the cultivation of leadership abilities. In order to make the business curriculum more suitable for society, it is critically important to reform and realign it. The government should strive to develop novel methodologies to improve the nation's educational system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the meaning of Standard No. 1 in the AAOIFI Sharia Standards regarding the distinction between the binding promises of the two parties to currency trading and the binding promise from one party in it, and the extent of currency trading's legality considering Sharia's objectives. The paper relies on the classical and contemporary literature on AAOIFI Standard No. 1 and currency exchange and trading. It uses both inductive and descriptive-analytical methods and adopts a qualitative content analysis method to describe the elements that make up the framework. The difference between a binding promise between two parties and a binding promise to exchange currency by one party is incorrect, because there is no real difference between the two. Owing to economics and Islamic law, "trading in currencies" and "exchanging currencies" do not have the same value. Most currency trade is speculation, which leaves the real economy open to the hopes and greed of a large group of speculators. The study is unique because it is one of the first to try to highlight the legal difference between a binding promise from a single party and multiple parties, evaluate it, and propose a new way to explain the difference that meets the goals of Sharia in currency trading. The researchers suggest framing the issue of difference as follows: in terms of what is illegal, there is no difference between promise binding in currency trading and promise binding on only one side. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange rate volatility, growing foreign corporate debt, and decreasing private investment ratio are among the consequences of financialization experienced by developing countries such as Mexico. The present work analyses the combined effect of these three factors using a Stock Flow Consistent (SFC) model. It analytically explores the balance sheet effect in the non-financial corporate sector; higher foreign debt would affect private investment after episodes of real currency depreciation. To explore such mechanisms, we simulate the commodity price cycle of the early 2000s alongside the shifts in the stance of the FED in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. The scenario analysis points to a hysteresis of the Real Exchange Rate (RER) and an increase in foreign debt level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the travel preferences of younger generations is the primary approach that tourism service providers should undertake, as they are one of the main target customers. The "post-millennials" or "Generation Z (Gen Z)" are the new generation, and they significantly influence how tourism is currently characterized by its goals and behaviours. As a result, the goal of this study is to evaluate the economic, personal, social and cultural aspects that affect Omani Gen Z tourists' choice of travel location. Additionally, gender-based differences among these aspects were also tested in the current study. Because the group being researched is heterogeneous, this study used descriptive research and implemented stratified sampling to ensure that each attribute was fairly represented. 228 participants responded to the survey that the study used to get the data. The following are the most important factors in the categories of personal, economic, social, and cultural: The location offers security and personal safety (4.35); the destination has low fees for using ATMs and currency exchange centres (4.12); the destination was recommended by social media and influencers (4.07); and traditional and Halal foods are available at the destination (4.30). Also, gender-based difference was found in social aspect only. By considering these factors, tour operators and tourist destinations can modify their products to better cater to Omani "Gen Z" travellers’ wants and interests and deliver a more genuine and immersive travel experience that takes into account their diverse demands and preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this research, the relationship between currency exchange rates and inflation in the context of Türkiye is investigated, covering the period 2006:Q1-2023:Q1. To achieve this objective, unit root tests on the variables are conducted using both Fourier KPSS and Standard KPSS methods. Additionally, Fourier SHIN and Standard SHIN cointegration tests are employed to determine the presence of a long-term connection between these variables. Furthermore, DOLS, FMOLS, and CCR estimators are utilized to estimate both long-term and short-term coefficients. The findings, which are obtained through all three estimation techniques, consistently indicate that increases in the exchange rate lead to higher inflation levels, whether in the long-term or the short-term. This result underscores the significant impact of exchange rates on inflation rates within the Türkiye economy. When Türkiye's economic structure is examined, it becomes evident that there is a substantial reliance on foreign exchange. This underscores the critical importance of maintaining exchange rate stability. Ultimately, the results emphasize the necessity of not only preserving exchange rate stability but also strengthening efforts to generate foreign exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analize the Mexican peso-US dollar exchange parity the volatility using three models in order to evaluate the exchange rate risk performance and the these models capability of modeling such risk. The period June 21st, 2017 to June 21st, 2022 is marked by singular events that pressed this exchange rate parity, making it of great interest to study the tools that can be used to measure this uncertainty besides the study of the exchange rate uncertainty itself. The arrival of a leftwing politician to the presidency was an unprecedented event. At the beginning of 2020 the price war in the oil market and the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic had important effects in the world economy. Finally, the war in Ukraine added pressures to the international trade of raw materials, inducing an inflationary episode with bad expectations about the economic performance around the world. The exchange rate scenarios posed by the aforesaid events provide us with a natural context to test which of the posited volatility models offers a better fit. Unanimously, the results under the three models suggest that during the first year of the President López Obrador period the exchange rate uncertainty was reduced compared to previous levels, returning again to those minor levels after the forced closure of economic activities due to the emergence of COVID-19, even though the exchange fluctuation band has been slightly higher than before the pandemic and the war on East Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The paper applied the Lintner model at the national level and examines the determinants of FDI profit repatriation in the Czech Republic and OECD countries. • The repatriation rate in the Czech Republic is higher than in most OECD countries. • Financial development and investment opportunities negatively affect the payout ratio of OECD countries as a group, while the appreciation of host countries' currency and higher effective rates positively affect the payout ratio of OECD countries as a group. • In the Czech Republic, only two factors that encourage repatriation are financial development and corruption enforcement. The paper examines the determinants of FDI profit repatriation in the Czech Republic and OECD countries as a group from 2013 to 2019. By applying the Lintner model about repatriation decisions at the national level, the paper finds the following findings. Firstly, the repatriation rate in the Czech Republic is higher than in most OECD countries. Secondly, financial development and investment opportunities negatively affect the payout ratio of OECD countries as a group, while the appreciation of host countries' currency and higher effective rates positively affect the payout ratio of OECD countries as a group. However, in the case of the Czech Republic, two factors that cause a higher payout ratio are financial development and anti-corruption enforcement. It implies that the Czech Republic should improve its financial market development and reduce the level of corruption to keep the profit from FDI in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the non-linear relationship between oil price shocks and the real business cycle in Ecuador, a dollarized economy where oil exports are the country's main source of foreign exchange. We estimate several autoregressive Markov switching models for the period 2000:01-2020:01 to identify the differentiated impact of nominal oil price shocks on real GDP in expansion and slowdown regimes. We find evidence that oil price shocks have an asymmetric effect on Ecuador's economic growth, with a larger impact during slowdowns. They also affect all components of aggregate demand differently in each regime, with a larger impact on investment during expansions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to explore the educational foreign exchange and cooperation policy conceptual framework in China's education system from a historical policy retrospective analysis. Since reform and opening-up, China has issued a total of 151 pieces of educational foreign exchange and cooperation policy documents, including the cultural education policy, the technical educational policy, the overseas educational policy, and the foreign student policy. It is suggested that we need to carry out capacity building and improve the quality of education exchanges and cooperation with other countries; expand forms and paths and expand educational exchange and cooperation resources and optimize the project system and support education exchange and cooperation with foreign countries; enhance the strength of education and enhancing the influence of education on foreign exchange and cooperation. In conclusion, we need build a guaranteed system for educational exchange and cooperation with foreign countries. We will gradually lift the authority of foreign exchange and cooperation projects in education by category, promote the reform of qualification identification and management of institutions opening to the outside world in education, and improve the facilitation and speed of the management and service of opening to the outside world in education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research examines a comovement and spillover of volatility among foreign exchange, conventional and shariah stock markets in Association of South East Asian Nation-5 (ASEAN) countries and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity—Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (GARCH-BEKK) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (GARCH-DCC) models are used to capture the correlation and transmission volatility of the markets. The overall results show that both the Shariah and the conventional stock indices respond similarly to each country's currency. A bidirectional (two-way relationship) volatility spillover exists only in Malaysia and a unidirectional (one-way relationship) volatility is observed in Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and Bahrain. The rest of the markets–the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)–do not have any volatility spillover evidence. Based on DCC outcomes, the conventional and Shariah stock in ASEAN-5 countries and GCC countries reveal the market efficiency, i.e., a positive high conditional correlation. Only Bahrain shows less efficiency than the other countries. It implies no portfolio diversification advantage in conventional and Shariah stock indices. Contrarily, currency and stock (conventional and Shariah) markets provide portfolio diversification benefits for all ASEAN-5 and GCC countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article asks how Germany could have pursued a far-reaching 'National Industrial Strategy 2030' despite the fierce opposition of German industry. To resolve this puzzle—which realist-inspired and institutionalist analyses struggle with—it deploys a critical state theory attuned to the uneven and combined development of global capitalism. The twin challenge of China catching up and the US forging ahead has not only prompted German officials to develop a 'defensive-mercantilist' response; new qualitative and quantitative evidence indicates that it has also deepened conflicts within Germany's export industry. Small and large firms are divided over how to respond to the growing lead of US capital in the digital economy, and its major sectors have experienced Chinese inroads into high-tech manufacturing differently. I argue that the German state was/is able to advance its industrial strategy insofar as it reconciles these divergent interests. First, it has offered laxer EU cartel rules to big business and enhanced protection from digital oligopolies to the Mittelstand, in exchange for tighter foreign direct investment controls. And second, I suggest that it could win over the chemical and electrical industry, through selective state subsidies, to its plans to re-shore transnational value chains in the name of 'technological sovereignty'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of foreign fund' flow on the Indonesian stock index incorporating other variables, namely the international stock market, gold price, foreign exchange rate, and the oil price. GJR-GARCH (1,1) model is used to analyze daily time-series data on IDX, foreign fund flows, the S&P 500, and gold, currency, and oil prices from 2014 to 2019. There is an evidence of leverage effect. It means that there is an asymmetric news impact on the conditional variances. Currency and oil prices are the only variables to have an impact on the Indonesian stock market index, while the rest of the variables do not influence the index. The government may provide infrastructures to attract foreign investors. At the same time, the government has to issue the policy that will protect the economy from stock market shocks. Finally, investors may include gold in their portfolio to diversify their investments. JEL Classification: G120, G10, G40 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability in the price of a financial asset is called volatility and is often measured with a standard deviation. In case of high uncertainty, volatility increases. The effect of a shock in one market on returns and volatility in other markets is expressed as a volatility transmission. The volatility transmission in international financial markets gained importance with the effects of the 2008 global crisis. The aim of this study is to reveal the volatility transmission between the exchange rates of Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia which constitute the Eurasian Economic Union as of January 1, 2015. The return series obtained over the daily closing prices of the exchange rate between 31.12.2018 and 30.06.2023 of the mentioned countries were analyzed with the MGARCH method, and the source countries of the news effect of the return volatility and the source countries of the volatility transmission were determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese banks became major players in the global geography of finance. Yet studies of Chinese finance in Brazil focus on development ("policy") bank loans, overlooking commercial banks. This inhibits theoretical advancements beyond the idea that Chinese finance in Latin America is largely "resource-seeking" in nature. Meanwhile, studies of the internationalization of the renminbi focus on state-led policy mechanisms in leading international financial centers, overlooking the expansion of renminbi exchange by commercial banks on the peripheries of global financial networks. I triangulate data from the Brazilian Central Bank, Chinese bank reports, and qualitative materials to present the first comprehensive account of Chinese commercial banking in Brazil. Although they are not yet major players, they are becoming important suppliers of trade finance and currency exchange services. I argue this reinforces challenges to the theory that Chinese finance in Brazil is primarily resource-seeking, and emphasizes that currency-exchange services play a central role in the internationalization strategies of Chinese finance on the peripheries of global financial networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent currency fluctuations, which have created uncertainty in currency markets about the movement of exchange rates, have spurred renewed interest in portfolio dependence modelling and risk modelling. Currency exchange portfolio risks can be measured using Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) based on Monte Carlo simulation. However, this method of risk estimation involves considerable challenges owing to the complexity of modelling the joint multivariate distribution of the assets in the portfolio. Therefore, copula functions, such as the t-Student and Clayton copulas, have been proposed to measure the dependence structure of the return of a currency exchange portfolio. This study proposes the use of the copula-VaR and copula-CVaR approaches to make strategic choices in currency management when evaluating the risks of equal- and mixed-weighted portfolios of the returns of investment in five foreign currencies in Malaysia: the United States dollar, United Kingdom pound sterling, European Union euro, Japanese yen, and Singapore dollar. The generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-copula models are also evaluated. We find that the marginal distribution of the returns series of the currency exchange rates can be modelled using the Glosten--Jagannathan--Runkle (GJR)-GARCH model with the t-Student distribution, and the dependence structure of the currency exchange portfolio can be depicted by the t-Student copula. The best investment performance tends to the Singapore dollar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research studies the legitimacy of a phenomenon that has spread a lot nowadays and becomes a profession for many people: that is selling currencies and other commodities in the black market. This topic is of great importance since it sheds light on an issue closely related to people's economic relations they experience in their daily lives. The research aims to know the rules and regulations that govern the black market trade in Islamic jurisprudence. The researcher used the descriptive analytical method. The study consisted of a preface dealing with the definition of the concept of the black market, and two topics, the first topic deals with the decisions (by a judge) on currency exchange in the black market, and the second topic included the decision (by a judge) on selling goods in the black market. The research concluded that the black market is prohibited by the authorities, and that trading of currencies should be subjected to the law, the government decisions and Sharia rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complex dynamics of financial asset prices play a pivotal role in the global economy and consequently in the life of the people. Thus, this research encompasses a systematic analysis of the price dynamics of the financial assets considering simultaneously four critical attributes of the financial market (disorder, predictability, efficiency and similarity/dissimilarity). We explore these essential attributes of the financial market using the permutation entropy ( H s ) and Fisher Information measure ( F s ), and cluster analysis. Primary, we use the values of the information theory quantifiers to construct the Shannon–Fisher causality plane (SFCP) allows us to quantify the disorder and assess the randomness exhibited by these financial price time series. Bearing in mind the complexity hierarchy, we apply the values of H s and F s to rank the efficiency of these financial assets. The overall results suggest that the fiat currencies of developed countries, such as the Canadian dollar (CAD), British pound (GBP), and Norwegian krone (NOK), display higher disorder, lower predictability, and higher efficiency than other financial assets such as Crude oil (WTI) and Foreign exchange rates. Also, the cluster analysis provided by the K-means and the Hierarchical cluster techniques grouped these financial assets into only three distinct groups. We conclude that an oligopolistic market structure drives the WTI. At the same time, the other financial assets are characterized by atomized markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic globalisation is the integration of national economies into the global economy through the increasing flow of goods, services, capital, and technology across borders and it has contributed to garnering a significant portion of most nations' national income, although its agricultural value-added aspect has yet to be maximised. This pioneering study explores the impact of economic globalisation on value-added agriculture in a global context based on countries' income levels. Panel data regression with the stepwise method was employed to quantify the impact of economic globalization on agriculture value added in 101 countries between 2000 and 2021. The findings of our study reveal that economic globalisation, through various channels such as fertilizer consumption, employment in agriculture, agriculture raw materials export and import, exchange rate, and foreign direct investment, significantly influences the agricultural value-added factor globally and across different income levels. Furthermore, the results show that agricultural employment significantly impacts the agricultural value-added factor globally and across all income levels. Also, countries with low and lower-middle-income levels significantly affect agricultural value-added due to exchange rates. In comparison, high-income and lower-middle-income levels have an impact due to foreign direct investment. Finally, the upper-middle-income countries have significantly affected agricultural value-added due to agricultural raw materials imports. This study confirms that employment in agriculture, exchange rate and foreign direct investments positively impact agriculture value-added on the global level and based on the income level of countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the article is to analyze and assess the level of non-performing loans in the portfolio of the TOP-14 banks that are most actively lending to agriculture. It is substantiated that problem loans of banks should be considered as one of the most important indicators of the state of the economy. The balances of funds on non-performing loans in the total volume of bank loans provided to agriculture in 2023 were analyzed. The main banks - "collectors" of problem loans in agricultural lending have been identified. Banks with the smallest share of problem loans to agriculture are presented. The dynamics of the volume and share of non-performing loans in agriculture in the portfolio of banks included in the study sample is shown. The share of non-performing loans in agriculture in national and foreign currency in the portfolio of non-performing loans of the analyzed banks was determined. It is substantiated that state and most commercial banks prefer lending to agriculture mainly in the national currency. There is an increase in the share of non-performing loans in the whole banking system of Ukraine for the period 2018-2023. On the basis of statistical data, methodological approaches are proposed in the context of the work of banks with bad debts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nigeria has a housing deficit of over 17.5 million. Over the years, the government has articulated several policies to encourage investment and development of the housing sector. However, the housing construction sector imports most of the building materials which is affected by the various government directives on foreign exchange policies, with significant impact on the cost of housing production. This study examined the impact of foreign exchange rates on the costs of residential building materials in Ibadan, with a view to proposing policy directives on the local production of building materials in Nigeria. A survey research design was adopted and the retrospective longitudinal approach was employed to obtain data for the study. It was revealed that two types of rates (the fixed exchange rate and the floating exchange rate) dominated the trend of foreign exchange in Nigeria. The prices of building materials indicate an upward price movement and correlations exist between changes in exchange rates and changes in the price of building materials. A unit increase in the foreign exchange rate affects the price of building materials as seen in this study, where the foreign exchange rate positively increased by 1 value, the interbank and the parallel market exchange rates rose by exchange rate values of 0,807 and 0,705, respectively. To reverse the current trend of dependence of prospective house owners on foreign materials for housing production, the use of quality-assured local building materials in housing development should be encouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to estimate and analyze the value-added chains embedded in the bilateral-sectoral trade of intermediate and final goods included in the transactions: Texas-Mexico (TX-MX) and California-Mexico (CA-MX). For this purpose, the global interregional input-output matrices for TX-MX and CA-MX were constructed for 2013. The bilateral-sectoral trade balance shows that Texas (TX) and California (CA) specialize in exports of intermediate goods. In contrast, Mexico (MX) specializes in final goods, resulting in low export multipliers for the latter. MX maintains high dependence on intermediate goods from TX, CA, and third places, resulting in lower foreign exchange earnings per dollar exported. Finally, TX-MX has an energy-technology trade pattern, while CA-MX has a technology-energy trade pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I explore the role of foreign currency-denominated loans on employment and firm growth. I utilize the Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) methodology using a rich firm-level dataset in order to find counterpart firms that are similar in terms of variables such as net sales, total assets, number of employees, the share of total debt in assets, the share of tangible assets in total assets, export to total sales ratio but different in the currency of the loan used. Then I use panel data fixed effect regressions to measure the impact of FX loans on firm employment and sales growth compared to TL loans. More specifically, I analyze whether firms that use FX-denominated credit more intensively have better firm outcomes or not. The results point to the diminishing impact of FX loans on firm growth in recent years. While the firms borrowed in FX had a higher growth rate compared to TL-borrowed firms until 2017, there is no significant difference in firm employment growth or sales growth performance between FXindebted firms and TL-indebted firms after 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the current study was to analyze how much of the pressure in the foreign exchange market in Turkey is eliminated by the Central Bank, depending on the monetary policies implemented. On the basis of this analysis, the value changes of the US dollar against the Turkish Lira were observed and the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index was calculated in the local market. Based on Weymark's (1997) open economy model, the empirical results obtained from the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method were obtained using the autoregressive model to find the expectation values of the variables. The time span of the observed data to estimate the relevant parameters of the variables used in the model covers the period from the first quarter of 1998 to the second quarter of 2020. The findings showed that although the EMP index had high values and the Turkish Lira weakened during the local economic crisis of 2001, the index values fell as a result of the monetary measures implemented in place afterward. This process, which continued until the third quarter of 2018, is observed to have started to rise again in the DPB index due to the exchange rate crisis. The findings highlight the pressures exerted on the Turkish Lira by the policies implemented in the recent past and appeal to a wide audience, from politicians to economists, about how monetary policies should be in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the early period of the Joseon Dynasty, the government undertook currency reform at both central and local levels to promote currency exchange and restructure market order. Drawing on historical sources and utilizing game theory methodologies, this study examines the challenges of state governance and the dynamics of central-local relations during this era. The findings suggest that the establishment of the Joseon Dynasty's governance system arose from the rulers' deliberate decisions; however, it was also driven by the necessity to reconcile the development of productive forces with the superstructure. The study highlights the impact of the "official" issue on communication efficiency between central and local authorities, which contributed to the currency reform's failure. Consequently, the central government's regulation and control over local regions, as well as its ability to govern the aspirations of grassroots populations, emerged as crucial factors for successful national governance. This research provides valuable insights into the academic value and significance of historical state governance practices and informs contemporary centrallocal relations and policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research concludes with the importance of defining the seriousness of the Corona virus pandemic on the global economy in general, with the research discussing its impact on some sectors of the Egyptian economy, "by relying on the analytical and statistical approach in discussing the dimensions of the problem, monitoring and clarifying official statistics that show the impact of the pandemic on some sectors such as remittances of Egyptians abroad," and the impact of the pandemic also on the export sector, etc.. The importance of the research is due to an attempt to find solutions to reduce the effects of the pandemics through recommendations " for countries to confront it any potential pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The era of dollar-based financial globalisation has seen a steady rise in the use of foreign exchange (FX) swaps. We provide a macrofinancial political economy perspective on the geography of FX swaps, and the spatial effects of central bank policies aimed at taming instabilities associated with the uneven geography of the dollar. First, we analyse the mechanisms and potential sources of instability involved in accessing dollars using FX swaps and repurchase agreement (repo) contracts, respectively, in both private and public (central bank) use. Second, we show that the distribution of currencies and institutions involved in trading swaps is skewed, reflecting both the dominance of the dollar as international financing currency and the uneven international distribution of dollar-denominated assets and liabilities. We document the changing composition of dollar swap users on both the long-dollar and short-dollar side and identify potential sources of macrofinancial vulnerability for dollar lenders and borrowers. The Fed's approach to global liquidity provision via both swaps and repos constitutes a spatially variegated strategy to preserve the hegemony of the US dollar. Despite its partial success in reducing instability due to cross-border financial imbalances, the Fed's uneven and hierarchical lender of last resort approach cannot sufficiently stabilise global finance to underpin a new era of macrofinancial stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study undertakes a descriptively comprehensive and statistically robust assessment of the sustainability of current account (CA) and solvency of intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) in the BRICS countries. The long-run model estimated in one-regime setting with no structural break and in sample-split setting with multiple structural breaks provides dominant support to the sustainability of CA and solvency of IBC. The policy makers in the countries with surpluses in CA, such as China and Russia, need to manage upward pressure on domestic currency, encourage domestic investment, and seek opportunities for outward FDI. The central bank interventions in FOREX market, accompanied by both short-term portfolio and long-term direct investments overseas, would help relieve upward pressure on domestic currency and make productive use of foreign exchange reserves. The policy focus in the countries with deficits in CA, such as Brazil, India and South Africa, should be to accelerate productivity, boost exports, bolster saving, and implement fiscal consolidation to ensure the sustainability of CA and solvency of IBC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, the COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading at home and abroad, and the foreign exchange market is highly volatile. From financial institutions to individual investors, foreign exchange asset allocation has become important contents worthy of attention. However, most intelligent optimization algorithms (hereinafter IOAS) adopt the existing data and ignore the forecasted one in the foreign exchange portfolio allocation, which will result in a huge difference between portfolio allocation and actual demand; at the same time, many IOAS are less adaptable and have lower optimization ability in portfolio problems. To solve the aforementioned problems, this paper first proposed a DETS based on hybrid tabu search and differential evolution algorithms (DEAs), which has excellent optimization ability. Subsequently, the DETS algorithm was applied to support vector machine (SVM) model. Experiments show that, compared with other algorithms, the MAE and RMSE obtained by using DETS optimization parameters are reduced by at least 3.79 and 1.47%, while the CTR is improved by at least 2.19%. Then combined with the DETS algorithm and Pareto sorting theory, an algorithm suitable for multi-objective optimization was further proposed, named NSDE-TS. Finally, by applying NSDE-TS algorithm, the optimal foreign exchange portfolio is acquired. The empirical analysis shows that the Pareto front obtained by this algorithm is better than that of NSGA-II. Since the lower the uniformity index and convergence index, the stronger the optimization performance of the corresponding algorithm, compared with NSGA-II, its uniformity and convergence index decreased by 15.7 and 39.6%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We describe a model of optimal consumer-merchant exchange of cash payments. • Diary data are used to quantify the burden of exchanging currency notes and coins. • The model and data are used to analyze the effects of eliminating the one-penny coin. • Penny elimination would reduce the burden of exchanging cash. • Penny elimination would result in little or no inflationary consequences. • Elimination of the penny and the nickel would not reduce this burden relative to penny elimination only. This article quantifies the burden of exchanging currency notes and coins using a model of optimal consumer-merchant exchange of cash payments and consumer payment choice diary data. The model is then applied to analyze a policy debate whether to eliminate the penny coin from circulation. We find that penny elimination would reduce the burden of exchanging cash and will not have any significant inflationary consequences caused by price rounding. Surprisingly, a removal of both the penny and nickel coins from circulation would slightly increase (not decrease) the burden relative to penny elimination only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on an analysis of 208 articles, this paper argues that while the fraud literature varies on the diagnosis of fraud, it is rooted in a common narrative as to its nature and causes. Specifically, this paper adopts an investigative approach to understand how fraud is often researched and shapes audit policies and practices. The findings reveal that fraud is generally looked at as an individual and/or organizational phenomenon, thereby allowing the meso-level of analysis to escape scrutiny. A gap, therefore, exists in being able to detect fraud at the meso-level, such as in financial services (i.e., LIBOR rigging). A meso-level analysis of fraud will allow researchers to highlight problems across the general field like the banks rigging the LIBOR or distorting the currency market as in the forex scandal. A meso-level analysis of fraud is important because it highlights the contagious behavior across the field and offers insights for fraud prevention and detection. Recognizing this unique epistemology will allow researchers to uncover new knowledge and not remain wedded to a reified understanding of fraud and fraud risks. Policymakers can derive insights and draft policies that reflect practitioners' needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a glimpse of the unpublished work of Harriot's colleague Walter Warner. The main topic is the use of hydrostatic weighing and algebraic symbolism to determine the constitution of a mixture of metals. This was an important matter in the context of contemporary debates about currency and exchange. Recent discoveries have revealed the extent of Warner's writings in this field, and the involvement of other notable seventeenth-century figures, such as Charles Thynne, Henry Robinson, John Dury, Samuel Hartlib, Justinian Isham, and David Ramsay. Their work illustrates many facets of scientific enquiry at that time, such as the contemporary concepts of weight and density, and the introduction of the new symbolic algebra in Harriot's style. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 2010s, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) intervened massively with domestic non-deliverable forwards (DNDFS) to offset the reversal of the global financial cycle. This article aims to investigate why the BCB used these derivatives instead of selling its international reserves, how they affected the markets, and the limits of these interventions. The main benefit of DNDFs is that they preserve the international reserves of the central bank. Since market makers use these DNDFs to hedge their supply of foreign currencies in the foreign exchange markets, the central bank can affect these markets without spending a dollar. We present evidence that DNDFs were associated with an expansion of market makers' short dollar positions. DNDFs were also used to limit excessive currency volatility. We identified a subset of interventions aimed at offsetting excessive volatility and present evidence that the BCB could stabilize the markets on these occasions. However, DNDFs are not a panacea. If coupled with deregulated foreign exchange markets, frequent interventions may stimulate speculative activity against the domestic currency. Furthermore, they can be costly, and these costs increase the interest-bearing liabilities of the central bank, constraining the domestic policy space of the monetary authority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2008 financial crisis saw central banks introduce a variety of tools to shore up the financial system, including unconventional measures that made use of central bank balance sheets to directly shape markets. This paper argues that central banks increasingly rely on unconventional tools in noncrisis times to maintain confidence in an unstable financial system: in rich countries, outright asset purchase programs form the core of monetary policy, and in emerging capitalist economies, the sale and purchase of foreign exchange assets constitute the central mechanism of exchange rate policy. These interventions increasingly target 'market dysfunction,' as opposed to (a narrow interpretation of) monetary policy or the level of the exchange rate, suggesting a convergence in central bank operations around maintaining the plumbing of finance. Using two case studies – foreign exchange operations by the Reserve Bank of India and asset purchase programs by the U.S. Federal Reserve – the paper demonstrates a blurring of the boundaries between crisis and noncrisis interventions, and lends evidence to the concept of a de-risking state that guarantees liquidity. The paper concludes with a discussion of how a de-risking state exacerbates inequality, financial vulnerabilities and undermines meaningful action on pressing issues such as climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Payments dollarization necessitates firms to take on a burden of currency exchange even for domestic transactions, which is regarded as an economy-wide efficiency loss. However, currency exchange, if seized by banks, can serve as a catalyst for financial development. Using a firm-level dataset from an original survey that reveals the prevalence of currency exchange due to payments dollarization, our study adopts the logit model approach to investigate firms' decisions on currency exchange methods. The empirical results confirm that firms' dependence on cash payment and their perception of price differences influence their decisions. Specifically, a high ratio of cash expenditure to total expenditure and their perception of money changers being competitive in price are associated with firms' preference of money changers to banks. Our findings suggest effective policy interventions for the promotion of currency exchange at banks, including disclosure of currency exchange rates by the central bank for firms' informed decisions as well as the concurrent promotion of non-cash payment methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to attempt to understand the joint co-movement of bank deposit rate and its main underlying determinants (foreign exchange rate (FX) rate, cross-currency swap rate and implied forward rate). The authors also compare time and frequency variant approaches in this dynamic. Design/methodology/approach: The authors examine bank deposit rates where multiple variables jointly interact, and the integration is time and frequency variant. The study applies both cointegration and wavelet coherence methods and conducts a comparative analysis. It investigates eight markets over 2005–2020 aiming to capture the impact of changing market conditions and degree of development. Findings: The results are in line with cross-country interdependence, where we observe more robust evidence for co-movement during adverse economic conditions with higher correlation compared to other periods such as the 2007–2009 US mortgage crises, 2010–2012 Euro crises and 2019 pandemic. Moreover, wavelet analysis suggests deposit rate lags FX rate and leads cross-country swap rate. The USA arguably leads the co-movement accompanied briefly by Japan and followed closely by other developed markets and later the developing markets. Heat maps suggest clustering of countries. Practical implications: The wavelet coherence's ability to indicate the periods and the frequencies of the relationship is essential to capture the true nature of the relationship. Such additional insight would enable the practitioners to determine the true price of the deposit rate. Originality/value: The study captures the long suggested collective nature of three main underlying determinants of bank deposit. The results shed light on the order of dynamics in a complex bank deposit environment. Comparative analysis further highlights the valuable insight quadruple wavelet coherence provides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting exchange rates is a complex problem that has benefitted from recent advances and research in machine learning. The main goal of this study is to design and implement a method to improve the learning performance of artificial neural networks with large volumes of data using population-based metaheuristics. The micro-genetic training algorithm is thoroughly analyzed using profiling tools to find bottlenecks. We compare the use of a micro-genetic algorithm to predict changes in currency exchange rates on a data set containing more than 500,000 values. To find the best parameters of neural networks, we propose an improved micro-genetic training algorithm by dividing the training data into mini batches. In this case, the improved micro-genetic algorithm proved to be much faster compared to the standard genetic algorithm, while achieving the same prediction accuracy. This allows for the use of this algorithm for just-in-time predictions of high frequency data. Here, neural network models are first created and validated on an existing data set. Then, the new data values can be added to neural network models and retrained in a short time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the Global North-South opposition in international finance and the moral underpinnings of arguments directed against China's exchange rate policies. It mentions current monetary structure through the evolution of the Bretton Woods system, the lack of workable international standards. It also mentions China's move toward greater exchange rate flexibility is driven largely by long-term domestic interests.

The proposed paper presents the analysis, design, implementation and evaluation of an ultra-short-term frequency trading system for the foreign exchange (FOREX) market, which features all stages of the trading process (Pretrade Analysis, Trend Forecasting, Transaction Execution) substantially exploiting artificial intelligence techniques. Our goal is to simulate the judgment and decision making of the human expert (technical analyst or broker) with a system that responds in a timely manner to changes in market conditions, thus allowing the optimization of ultra-short-term transactions. We designed and implemented a series of technical indicator simulators, which are fed to a novel artificial neural network architecture, to eventually generate the trend forecasting signal. We also designed and implemented a series of customizable ultra-short-term automated trading machines, which receive as inputs the generated forecasting signals and perform real-time virtual transactions. A comparative analysis of the results of both automated trading machines and each machine is carried out for a comprehensive variety of trend forecasting sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper discusses the biblical, epigraphic, and numismatic data on the 'holy sheqel' against the background of weight and coinage standards. There is no extra-biblical evidence supporting a 20-gerah standard for the sheqel during both the Monarchic and Babylonian-Persian periods. It is demonstrated that none of the biblical evidence predates the late Persian period. On this basis, it is argued that the 'holy sheqel' was a virtual basis for the conversion of different currencies. This then is related to the simultaneous authority of the Torah in Jerusalem and on Mount Gerizim in the late Persian and early Hellenistic periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we evaluate how both the definition of middle class and the dataset considered affect the estimated size of the middle class in sub-Saharan Africa. By considering the feasibility of a single definition of a middle class for all African countries based on the World Bank's PovcalNet database, we estimate the size of this segment for a selection of countries. As part of the regional analysis, we follow with a country and city case study for Kenya and Nairobi. In the case study, to show the complexity and dynamics involved in the measurement at a more disaggregated level, we add the dynamic of currency unit conversion. This statistical assessment, as an investigation into the accuracy of past and current estimates of the middle class in sub-Saharan Africa, is helpful for both assessing the growth of the middle class on the continent and its potential to attract foreign investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the Iranian economy's state of singularity, characterized by a distorted economic system and dysfunctional laws. It explores the reversal of the Dutch Disease phenomenon and the emergence of a black hole within the national economy, driven by clerical institutions and a corrupt banking system.

Export foreign exchange revenues, which create added value in the country's economies, is also an important tool in ensuring the balance of payments. In the face of the economic crisis affecting the world, Turkey has taken a number of measures to overcome the problems caused by the foreign trade deficit, energy bottleneck and current account deficit. One of these measures is the obligation to sell a certain percentage of the export revenue foreign currency amount to be brought to Turkey to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Selling the foreign exchange income outside of the compulsory sale to another bank within a determined rate and granting export rediscount credits in return for these sales is also a part of the measure taken. The aim of the study; application of accounting records for the compulsory sale of the foreign currency revenues obtained by the enterprises from their export transactions to the CBRT and optionally to another bank within a certain ratio, and the use of Export and Foreign Exchange Earning Services Rediscount Credits in return for these foreign currency sales. The method of the study is the sample accounting application. The practice, which makes a positive contribution to the CBRT's foreign exchange reserves, brings with it some problems. As a result of the study; The following determinations were made in terms of businesses; making compulsory and optional foreign exchange sales at low exchange rates causes financial losses, the rate that determines the amount of foreign currency that needs to be sold in order to use the export rediscount credit is high, additional costs will be incurred if the needed foreign currency is purchased again, keeping the accounting records including the application in accordance with the legislation will facilitate the transactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finance, in particular, is tightly correlated with information-technology development. Digital currency or cryptocurrency is the outcome of the advancement of financial technology. As a means of payment over the internet, digital currencies are beginning to be widely used. This currency was developed in order to facilitate and secure transactions. Transaction fees have decreased as a result of the adoption of blockchain technology. Because it has a negative effect on the financial system, monetary stability, and payment system, government policy forbids transactions involving cryptocurrencies. Understanding of the stochastic and genetic algorithm models used in cryptocurrency is provided by this research. Cryptocurrency is a financial technological advancement that is part of the technological package and it enables banknotes to be replaced in financial transactions. A genetic algorithm (GA) achieved an MSE value of 0.0863 and an MPE of 0.0084 with data on cryptocurrencies. The aim of this research was that, in the future, the government would support cryptocurrency technology so that the laws that are passed preserve the Indonesian market while not forbidding anything outright. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]