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Abstract Background Few studies have quantified multimorbidity and frailty trends within hospital settings, with even fewer reporting how much is attributable to the ageing population and individual patient factors. Studies to date have tended to focus on people over 65, rarely capturing older people or stratifying findings by planned and unplanned activity. As the UK’s national health service (NHS) backlog worsens, and debates about productivity dominate, it is essential to understand these hospital trends so health services can meet them. Methods Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient admission records were extracted for adults between 2006 and 2021. Multimorbidity and frailty was measured using Elixhauser Comorbidity Index and Soong Frailty Scores. Yearly proportions of people with Elixhauser conditions (0, 1, 2, 3 +) or frailty syndromes (0, 1, 2 +) were reported, and the prevalence between 2006 and 2021 compared. Logistic regression models measured how much patient factors impacted the likelihood of having three or more Elixhauser conditions or two or more frailty syndromes. Results were stratified by age groups (18–44, 45–64 and 65 +) and admission type (emergency or elective). Results The study included 107 million adult inpatient hospital episodes. Overall, the proportion of admissions with one or more Elixhauser conditions rose for acute and elective admissions, with the trend becoming more prominent as age increased. This was most striking among acute admissions for people aged 65 and over, who saw a 35.2% absolute increase in the proportion of admissions who had three or more Elixhauser conditions. This means there were 915,221 extra hospital episodes in the last 12 months of the study, by people who had at least three Elixhauser conditions compared with 15 years ago. The findings were similar for people who had one or more frailty syndromes. Overall, year, age and socioeconomic deprivation were found to be strongly and positively associated with having three or more Elixhauser conditions or two or more frailty syndromes, with socioeconomic deprivation showing a strong dose–response relationship. Conclusions Overall, the proportion of hospital admissions with multiple conditions or frailty syndromes has risen over the last 15 years. This matches smaller-scale and anecdotal reports from hospitals and can inform how hospitals are reimbursed.

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease affects nearly 400 million worldwide – over a million in the United Kingdom – and is the third leading cause of death. However, there is limited understanding of what prompts a diagnosis, how long this takes from symptom onset and the different approaches to clinical management by primary care professionals. Objectives Map out the clinical management and National Health Service contacts from symptom presentation to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis and first acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in three time periods; construct risk prediction for first acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Design Retrospective cohort study and cross-sectional survey. Setting Primary care. Participants Patients with incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease aged > 35 years in England. Interventions None. Main outcome measures First acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Data sources Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum; new online survey. Results Forty thousand five hundred and seventy-seven patients were diagnosed between April 2006 and March 2007 (cohort 1), 48,249 between April 2016 and March 2017 (cohort 2) and 4752 between March and August 2020 (cohort 3). The mean (standard deviation) age was 68.3 years (12.0); 47.3% were female. Around three-quarters were diagnosed in primary care, with a slight fall in cohort 3. Compliance with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence diagnostic guidelines was slightly higher in cohorts 2 and 3 for all patients; 35.8% (10.0% in the year before diagnosis) had all four elements met for all cohorts combined. Multilevel modelling showed considerable between-practice variation in spirometry. The survey on the charity website had 156 responses by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. Many respondents had not heard of the condition, hoped the symptoms would go away and identified various healthcare-related barriers to earlier diagnosis. Clinical Practice Research Datalink analysis showed notable changes in post-diagnosis prescribing from cohort 1 to 2, such as increases in long-acting muscarinic antagonist (21.7–46.3%). Triple therapy rose from 2.9% in cohort 2 to 11.1% in cohort 3. Documented pulmonary rehabilitation rose from just 0.8% in cohort 1 to 13.7% in cohort 2 and 20.9% in cohort 3. For all patients combined, the median time to first acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in patients who had one was 1.4 years in cohorts 1 and 2. Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prediction models identified some consistent predictors, such as age, deprivation, severity, comorbidities, post-diagnosis spirometry and annual review. Models without post-diagnosis general practitioner actions had a c-statistic of around 0.70; the highest c-statistic was 0.81, for cohort 2 with post-diagnosis general practitioner actions and 6-month follow-up. All models had good calibration. The three most important predictors in terms of their population attributable risks were being a current smoker and offered smoking cessation advice (32.8%), disease severity (30.6%) and deprivation (15.4%). The highest population attributable risks for variables with adjusted hazard ratios

Background Timely diagnosis and treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) may improve clinical outcomes.Objective Examine associations between time to diagnosis, patterns of prior healthcare use, and clinical outcomes in IBD.Design Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink we identified incident cases of Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), diagnosed between January 2003 and May 2016, with a first primary care gastrointestinal consultation during the 3-year period prior to IBD diagnosis. We used multivariable Cox regression to examine the association of primary care consultation frequency (n=1, 2, >2), annual consultation intensity, hospitalisations for gastrointestinal symptoms, and time to diagnosis with a range of key clinical outcomes following diagnosis.Results We identified 2645 incident IBD cases (CD: 782; UC: 1863). For CD, >2 consultations were associated with intestinal surgery (adjusted HR (aHR)=2.22, 95% CI 1.45 to 3.39) and subsequent CD-related hospitalisation (aHR=1.80, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.50). For UC, >2 consultations were associated with corticosteroid dependency (aHR=1.76, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.41), immunomodulator use (aHR=1.68, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.26), UC-related hospitalisation (aHR=1.43, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.95) and colectomy (aHR=2.01, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.27). For CD, hospitalisation prior to diagnosis was associated with CD-related hospitalisation (aHR=1.30, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.68) and intestinal surgery (aHR=1.71, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.58); for UC, it was associated with immunomodulator use (aHR=1.42, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.81), UC-related hospitalisation (aHR=1.36, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.95) and colectomy (aHR=1.54, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.34). For CD, consultation intensity in the year before diagnosis was associated with CD-related hospitalisation (aHR=1.19, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.28) and intestinal surgery (aHR=1.13, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.23); for UC, it was associated with corticosteroid use (aHR=1.08, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.13), corticosteroid dependency (aHR=1.05, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.11), and UC-related hospitalisation (aHR=1.12, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.21). For CD, time to diagnosis was associated with risk of CD-related hospitalisation (aHR=1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.68); for UC, it was associated with reduced risk of UC-related hospitalisation (aHR=0.83, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.98) and colectomy (aHR=0.59, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.80).Conclusion Electronic records contain valuable information about patterns of healthcare use that can be used to expedite timely diagnosis and identify aggressive forms of IBD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a multisystem disease, and many patients have multiple conditions. We explored multimorbidity patterns that might inform intervention planning to reduce health-care costs while preserving quality of life for patients. Literature searches up to February 2022 revealed 4419 clinical observational and comparative studies of risk factors for multimorbidity in people with COPD, pulmonary emphysema, or chronic bronchitis at baseline. Of these, 29 met the inclusion criteria for this review. Eight studies were cluster and network analyses, five were regression analyses, and 17 (in 16 papers) were other studies of specific conditions, physical activity and treatment. People with COPD more frequently had multimorbidity and had up to ten times the number of disorders of those without COPD. Disease combinations prominently featured cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, asthma, musculoskeletal and psychiatric disorders. An important risk factor for multimorbidity was low socioeconomic status. One study showed that many patients were receiving multiple drugs and had increased risk of adverse events, and that 10% of medications prescribed were inappropriate. Many patients with COPD have mainly preventable or modifiable multimorbidity. A proactive multidisciplinary approach to prevention and management could reduce the burden of care.

Objectives Assess understanding of impactibility modelling definitions, benefits, challenges and approaches.Design Qualitative assessment.Setting Two workshops were developed. Workshop 1 was to consider impactibility definitions and terminology through moderated open discussion, what the potential pros and cons might be, and what factors would be best to assess. In workshop 2, participants appraised five approaches to impactibility modelling identified in the literature.Participants National Health Service (NHS) analysts, policy-makers, academics and members of non-governmental think tank organisations identified through existing networks and via a general announcement on social media. Interested participants could enrol after signing informed consent.Outcome measures Descriptive assessment of responses to gain understanding of the concept of impactibility (defining impactibility analysis), the benefits and challenges of using this type of modelling and most relevant approach to building an impactibility model for the NHS.Results 37 people attended 1 or 2 workshops in small groups (maximum 10 participants): 21 attended both workshops, 6 only workshop 1 and 10 only workshop 2. Discussions in workshop 1 illustrated that impactibility modelling is not clearly understood, with it generally being viewed as a cross-sectional way to identify patients rather than considering patients by iterative follow-up. Recurrent factors arising from workshop 2 were the shortage of benchmarks; incomplete access to/recording of primary care data and social factors (which were seen as important to understanding amenability to treatment); the need for outcome/action suggestions as well as providing the data and the risk of increasing healthcare inequality.Conclusions Understanding of impactibility modelling was poor among our workshop attendees, but it is an emerging concept for which few studies have been published. Implementation would require formal planning and training and should be performed by groups with expertise in the procurement and handling of the most relevant health-related real-world data.

Abstract Aims Many risk prediction models have been proposed for heart failure (HF), but few studies have used only information available to general practitioners (GPs) in primary care electronic health records (EHRs). We describe the predictors and performance of models built from GP‐based EHRs in two cohorts of patients 10 years apart. Methods and results Linked primary and secondary care data for incident HF cases in England were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink for 2001–02 and 2011–12. Time‐to‐event models for all‐cause mortality were developed using a long list of potential baseline predictors. Discrimination and calibration were calculated. A total of 5966 patients in 156 general practices were diagnosed in 2001–02, and 12 827 patients in 331 practices were diagnosed in 2011–12. The 5‐year survival rate was 40.0% in 2001–02 and 40.2% in 2011–12, though the latter population were older, frailer, and more comorbid; for 2001–02, the 10‐year survival was 20.8% and 15‐year survival 11.1%. Consistent predictors included age, male sex, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, GP domiciliary visits before diagnosis, and some comorbidities. Model performance for both time windows was modest (c = 0.70), but calibration was generally excellent in both time periods. Conclusions Information routinely available to UK GPs at the time of diagnosis of HF gives only modest predictive accuracy of all‐cause mortality, making it hard to decide on the type, place, and urgency of follow‐up. More consistent recording of data relevant to HF (such as echocardiography and natriuretic peptide results) in GP EHRs is needed to support accurate prediction of healthcare needs in individuals with HF.

BackgroundPsychotic disorders are severe and prevalent mental health conditions associated with long-term disability, reduced quality of life, and substantial economic costs. Early Intervention in Psychosis (EIP) services aim to provide timely and comprehensive treatment for psychotic disorders, and EIP service input is associated with improved outcomes. However, there is limited understanding of the specific components of EIP care that contribute to these improvements. There is significant nationwide variability in the commissioning and delivery of EIP, with individuals receiving different packages of components from different services. In this study, we seek to explore associations between EIP components and clinically significant outcomes, in order to understand the mechanisms underlying improved psychosis care.MethodsThis national retrospective cohort study will utilize data from the 2019 National Clinical Audit of Psychosis (NCAP), examining the care received by 10,560 individuals treated by EIP services in England. Exposure data from the NCAP, capturing the components of care delivered by EIP services, will be linked with outcome data from routine NHS Digital datasets over a three-year follow-up period. This will be the first study to use this method to examine this population in England. The primary outcomes will be surrogate measures of relapse of psychosis (hospital admission and referral to community-based crisis intervention services). Secondary outcomes include duration of admissions, emergency hospital attendances, episodes of detention under the Mental Health Act, and all-cause mortality. We will use multilevel regression to examine associations between exposures and outcome events. We will handle missing data using appropriate imputation techniques.DiscussionThis study aims to provide valuable insights into the long-term effects of variations in EIP service delivery. The study involves a large, diverse cohort including individuals treated by every EIP service in England. While there are limitations inherent in the observational nature of the study, any associations identified will be of great relevance to clinicians, researchers, and policymakers seeking to optimize EIP care. The results will enable more targeted treatment planning, resource allocation, and potential innovations in EIP care, ultimately leading to improved prognoses for people experiencing psychosis.

Introduction Diagnosis of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), bronchiectasis and interstitial lung disease (ILD) can be convoluted, and limited data exist on understanding the experience of diagnosis from a patient perspective.Aim To investigate a patient’s ‘route to diagnosis’, particularly focusing on the time prior to seeking healthcare, and perceived experiences of the diagnostic pathway.Methods An online survey was distributed via the UK Taskforce for Lung Health and member mailing lists to patients as well as the website and social media accounts from 23 May 2022 to 5 July 2022. Analysis was descriptive; χ2 tests were performed to make comparisons across diseases.Results There were 398 valid responses (COPD=156, asthma=119, ILD=67 and bronchiectasis=56). While only 9.2% of respondents who were eventually diagnosed with asthma had not heard of their disease, the corresponding percentages for COPD, ILD and bronchiectasis were 34.0%, 74.6% and 69.6%, respectively. 33.9% of people with bronchiectasis believed their delayed diagnosis was due to the health professionals’ lack of expertise or knowledge—24.4% for asthma, 19.2% for COPD and 17.9% for ILD.People with COPD were more likely (37.2%) and patients with asthma less likely (10.9%) to report they did not know the signs of potential lung disease (p

Background The components of care delivered by Early Intervention in Psychosis (EIP) services vary, but the impact on patient experience is unknown.Objective To investigate associations between components of care provided by EIP services in England and patient-reported outcomes.Methods 2374 patients from EIP services in England were surveyed during the National Clinical Audit of Psychosis. Participants were asked about the care they received, and completed the ‘Patient Global Impressions’ Scale (rating whether their mental health had improved), and ‘Friends and Family Test’ (rating whether they would recommend their service). Information about service structure was obtained from service providers. We analysed associations between outcomes and components of care using multilevel regression.Findings The majority of participants were likely to recommend the treatment they had received (89.8%), and felt that their mental health had improved (89.0%). Participants from services where care coordinators had larger case loads were less likely to recommend their care. Participants were more likely to recommend their care if they had been offered cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis, family therapy or targeted interventions for carers. Participants were more likely to report that their mental health had improved if they had been offered cognitive behavioural therapy for psychosis or targeted interventions for carers.Conclusions Specific components of EIP care were associated with improved patient reported outcomes. Psychosocial interventions and carer support may be particularly important in optimising outcomes for patients.Clinical implications These findings emphasise the need for small case load sizes and comprehensive packages of treatment in EIP services.

Objectives The recent census found that five million people in England and Wales provide unpaid care. With social services struggling, unpaid carers face increasing pressure. The North West London Networked Data Lab aimed to understand unpaid carers’ needs, health issues, and care pathways through public involvement and analysis of linked datasets. Methods We used the Discover dataset containing primary, secondary, mental health, and social care data of 2.5 million North West Londoners to explore our aims. To ensure the questions asked of the data mattered locally, we interviewed five unpaid carers to understand the issues they faced. One carer worked more closely with the data analyst to define the questions. The interim results were presented to a diverse group of unpaid carers to see whether anything resonated with them, surprised them, or required further research. The group also helped develop an engaging and accessible infographic to communicate our findings. Results The unpaid carer cohort in our dataset were, on average, older females from deprived areas, highlighting gender and socioeconomic inequities in caring responsibilities. Unpaid carers had a higher prevalence of long-term conditions before they were identified as a carer (e.g. hypertension, depression, anxiety and diabetes) and were more likely to use healthcare services than non-carers. Through speaking to unpaid carers, we learned that many hadn’t identified as a carer or mentioned it to their GP for many years. In fact, they had only had their carer status recorded after visiting their GP for an issue linked to their caring responsibilities. Our public involvement helped to highlight a major limitation of the data, particularly as men are less likely to interact with their GPs. Conclusion Our analysis found unpaid carers were more likely to have certain conditions and more likely to have multiple long-term conditions. Public involvement was critical in making sense of these findings and identifying policy and practice recommendations. Giving people a meaningful voice in population data research can also build public trust.

Abstract Aims Guidelines recommend the use of an implantable cardioverter‐defibrillator (ICD) and/or cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) device based on the results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), typically with selected patients and short follow‐up. Methods and results We describe the 5 year survival rate and use of hospital services following ICD and CRT implantation in England from April 2011 to March 2013 using the national hospital administrative database covering emergency department visits, inpatient admissions, and clinic appointments, linked to the national death register. Five‐year survival was 64% after ICD implantation and 58% after CRT implantation, with median survival times of 6.8 and 6.2 years, respectively. Hospital use was high in both device groups, for the 5 years prior and after implantation, peaking around the implantation date. Most hospital activity was not primarily related to heart failure. Healthcare costs were dominated by admissions, but emergency department and clinic activity were both high. Only the CRT group saw total per‐patient costs fall after the index month (implantation), driven by a slight fall in the heart failure admission rate. Patients were typically older than in the trials, but with similar co‐morbidity except for substantially more atrial fibrillation and less dementia. Survival and device complications were similar to the RCTs. Conclusions Clinical and cost‐effectiveness assessments of ICD and CRT implantation are supported by real‐world data, although the prevalence of atrial fibrillation remains substantially higher than in the RCTs.

Objectives To describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on outpatient appointments for children and young people.Setting All National Health Service (public) hospitals in England.Participants All people in England aged

Objectives To estimate the long-term survival of two cohorts of people diagnosed with heart failure 10 years apart and to assess differences in patient characteristics, clinical guideline compliance and survival by diagnosis setting.Methods Data for patients aged 18 and over with a new diagnosis of heart failure in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in 2001–2002 (5966 patients in 156 practices) and 2011–2012 (12 827 patients in 331 practices). Survival rates since diagnosis were described using Kaplan-Meier plots. Compliance with national guidelines was summarised.Results 2011/2012 patients were older than those diagnosed a decade before, with lower blood pressure and cholesterol but more comorbidity and healthcare contacts. For those diagnosed in 2001/2002, the 5-year survival was 40.0% (40.2% in the 2011/2012 cohort), 10-year survival was 20.8%, and 15-year survival 11.1%. Improvement in survival between the two time periods was seen only in those diagnosed in primary care (5-year survival 46.0% vs 57.4%, compared with 33.9% and 32.6% for hospital-diagnosed patients).Beta-blocker use rose from 24.3% to 39.1%; renin–angiotensin system blockers rose from 31.8% to 54.3% (both p

Abstract Background To calculate hospital surge capacity, achieved via hospital provision interventions implemented for the emergency treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other patients through March to May 2020; to evaluate the conditions for admitting patients for elective surgery under varying admission levels of COVID-19 patients. Methods We analysed National Health Service (NHS) datasets and literature reviews to estimate hospital care capacity before the pandemic (pre-pandemic baseline) and to quantify the impact of interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, deployment of former medical staff and deployment of newly qualified medical staff) for treatment of adult COVID-19 patients, focusing on general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators. Results NHS England would not have had sufficient capacity to treat all COVID-19 and other patients in March and April 2020 without the hospital provision interventions, which alleviated significant shortfalls in CC nurses, CC and G&A beds and CC junior doctors. All elective surgery can be conducted at normal pre-pandemic levels provided the other interventions are sustained, but only if the daily number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 1550 in the whole of England. If the other interventions are not maintained, then elective surgery can only be conducted if the number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 320. However, there is greater national capacity to treat G&A patients: without interventions, it takes almost 10,000 G&A COVID-19 patients before any G&A elective patients would be unable to be accommodated. Conclusions Unless COVID-19 hospitalisations drop to low levels, there is a continued need to enhance critical care capacity in England with field hospitals, use of private hospitals or deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff to allow some or all elective surgery to take place.

Abstract Background In the UK, several initiatives have resulted in the creation of local data warehouses of electronic patient records. Originally developed for commissioning and direct patient care, they are potentially useful for research, but little is known about them outside their home area. We describe one such local warehouse, the Whole Systems Integrated Care (WSIC) database in NW London, and its potential for research as the “Discover” platform. We compare Discover with the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a popular UK research database also based on linked primary care records. Methods We describe the key features of the Discover database, including scope, architecture and governance; descriptive analyses compare the population demographics and chronic disease prevalences with those in CPRD. Results As of June 2019, Discover held records for a total of 2.3 million currently registered patients, or 95% of the NW London population; CPRD held records for over 11 million. The Discover population matches the overall age-sex distribution of the UK and CPRD but is more ethnically diverse. Most Discover chronic disease prevalences were comparable to the national rates. Unlike CPRD, Discover has identifiable care organisations and postcodes, allowing mapping and linkage to healthcare provider variables such as staffing, and includes contacts with social, community and mental health care. Discover also includes a consent-to-contact register of over 3000 volunteers to date for prospective studies. Conclusions Like CPRD, Discover has been a number of years in the making, is a valuable research tool, and can serve as a model for other areas developing similar data warehouses.

Abstract Background Discrepancy exists amongst studies investigating the effect of comorbid heart failure (HF) on the morbidity and mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. Methods MEDLINE and Embase were searched using a pre-specified search strategy for studies comparing hospitalisation, rehospitalisation, and mortality of COPD patients with and without HF. Studies must have reported crude and/or adjusted rate ratios, risk ratios, odds ratios (OR), or hazard ratios (HR). Results Twenty-eight publications, reporting 55 effect estimates, were identified that compared COPD patients with HF with those without HF. One study reported on all-cause hospitalisation (1 rate ratio). Two studies reported on COPD-related hospitalisation (1 rate ratio, 2 OR). One study reported on COPD- or cardiovascular-related hospitalisation (4 HR). One study reported on 90-day all-cause rehospitalisation (1 risk ratio). One study reported on 3-year all-cause rehospitalisation (2 HR). Four studies reported on 30-day COPD-related rehospitalisation (1 risk ratio; 5 OR). Two studies reported on 1-year COPD-related rehospitalisation (1 risk ratio; 1 HR). One study reported on 3-year COPD-related rehospitalisation (2 HR). Eighteen studies reported on all-cause mortality (1 risk ratio; 4 OR; 24 HR). Five studies reported on all-cause inpatient mortality (1 risk ratio; 4 OR). Meta-analyses of hospitalisation and rehospitalisation were not possible due to insufficient data for all individual effect measures. Meta-analysis of studies requiring spirometry for the diagnosis of COPD found that risk of all-cause mortality was 1.61 (pooled HR; 95%CI: 1.38, 1.83) higher in patients with HF than in those without HF. Conclusions In this systematic review, we investigated the effect of HF comorbidity on hospitalisation and mortality of COPD patients. There is substantial evidence that HF comorbidity increases COPD-related rehospitalisation and all-cause mortality of COPD patients. The effect of HF comorbidity may differ depending on COPD phenotype, HF type, or HF severity and should be the topic of future research.

Abstract Background The ideal thromboprophylaxis regime following lower limb arthroplasty and proximal femur fractures remains controversial. Guidelines disagree on the type of chemical prophylaxis, its dose or duration. This article describes a method of monitoring venous thromboembolism (VTE) rates following Total Hip (THA), Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) and surgery for hip fractures (NOF#). Methods Over 3 years, all patients investigated for VTE were analysed using Picture Archiving Communications System (PACS). All positive scans were then cross-referenced using PACS and local registry data to see if they had undergone THA, TKA or NOF# in the preceding 90 days. Mortality data were obtained from the national administrative database, Hospital Episode Statistics. Results Five thousand seven hundred eighty-eight patients underwent investigation for VTE and there were 29 diagnoses of PE and 24 of DVT. There was a 0.77% rate of symptomatic DVT after THA, 0.05% after TKA and 0.55% after NOF #. The rate of confirmed symptomatic PE for THA was 0.46, 0.27% for TKA and 0.96% for NOF #. Mortality at one-year post-THA was 0.6, 0.6% for TKA and 25.9% after NOF#. All patients contacted either remained within the catchment area for the minimum 90 postoperative days or died within the catchment area. Conclusions The 90 day post-operative prevalence of symptomatic VTE of 1.2, 0.3 and 1.5% in THA, TKA and NOF # respectively are similar to other studies using symptomatic and imaging positive VTE as their endpoint. The study uses a method of collecting data which can be utilised in centres where PACS is available.

Abstract Background We aimed to compare the characteristics and types of heart failure (HF) patients termed “high-impact users”, with high long-term readmission rates, in different regions in England. This will allow clinical factors to be identified in areas with potentially poor quality of care. Methods Patients with a primary diagnosis of heart failure (HF) in the period 2008–2009 were identified using nationally representative primary care data linked to national hospital data and followed up for 5 years. Group-based trajectory models and sequence analysis were applied to their readmissions. Results In each of the 8 NHS England regions, multiple discrete groups were identified. All the regions had high-impact users. The group with an initially high readmission rate followed by a rapid decline in the rate ranged from 2.5 to 11.3% across the regions. The group with constantly high readmission rate compared with other groups ranged from 1.9 to 12.1%. Covariates that were commonly found to have an association with high-impact users among most of the regions were chronic respiratory disease, chronic renal disease, stroke, anaemia, mood disorder, and cardiac arrhythmia. Respiratory tract infection, urinary infection, cardiopulmonary signs and symptoms and exacerbation of heart failure were common causes in the sequences of readmissions among high-impact users in all regions. Conclusion There is regional variation in England in readmission and mortality rates and in the proportions of HF patients who are high-impact users.

Objective Implant rates of mechanical circulatory supports such as left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) have steadily increased in the last decade. We assessed the utility of administrative data to provide information on hospital use and outcomes.Methods Using 2 years of national hospital administrative data for England linked to the death register, we identified all patients with an LVAD and extracted hospital activity for 5 years before and after the LVAD implantation date.Results In the two index years April 2011 to March 2013, 157 patients had an LVAD implanted. The mean age was 50.9 (SD 15.4), and 78.3% were men. After 5 years, 92 (58.6%) had died; the recorded cause of death was noncardiovascular in 67.4%. 42 (26.8%) patients received a heart±lung transplantation. Compared with the 12 months before implantation, the 12 months after but not including the month of implantation saw falls in total inpatient and day case admissions, a fall in admissions for heart failure (HF), a rise in non-HF admissions, a fall in emergency department visits not ending in admission and a rise in outpatient appointments (all per patient at risk). Postimplantation complications were common in the subsequent 5 years: 26.1% had a stroke, 23.6% had a device infection and 13.4% had a new LVAD implanted.Conclusions Despite patients’ young age, their mortality is high and their hospital use and complications are common in the 5 years following LVAD implantation. Administrative data provide important information on resource use in this patient group.

Objectives Periprosthetic fractures have considerable clinical implications for patients and financial implications for healthcare systems. This study aims to determine the burden of periprosthetic fractures of the lower and upper limbs in England and identify any factors associated with differences in treatment and outcome.Design A national, observational study.Setting England.Participants All individuals admitted to hospital with periprosthetic fractures between 1 April 2015 and 31 December 2018.Primary and secondary outcome measures Mortality, length of stay, change in rate of admissions.Methods We analysed Hospital Episode Statistics data using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision code M96.6 (Fracture of bone following insertion of orthopaedic implant, joint prosthesis, or bone plate) to identify periprosthetic fractures recorded between April 2013 and December 2018. We determined the demographics, procedures performed, mortality rates and discharge destinations. Patient characteristics associated with having a procedure during the index admission were estimated using logistic regression. The annual rate of increase in admissions was estimated using Poisson regression.Results Between 1 April 2015 and 31 December 2018, there were 13 565 patients who had 18 888 admissions (89.5% emergency) with M96.6 in the primary diagnosis field. There was a 13% year-on-year increase in admissions for periprosthetic fracture in England during that period. Older people, people living in deprived areas and those with heart failure or neurological disorders were less likely to receive an operation. 14.4% of patients did not return home after hospital discharge. The overall inpatient mortality was 4.3% and total 30-day mortality was 3.3%.Conclusions The clinical and operational burden of periprosthetic fractures is considerable and increasing rapidly. We suggest that the management of people with periprosthetic fractures should be undertaken and funded in a similar manner to that successfully employed for people sustaining hip fractures, using national standards and data collection to monitor and improve performance.

BackgroundLong-acting reversible contraception (LARC) is among the most effective contraceptive methods, but uptake remains low even in high-income settings. In 2009/2010, a target-based pay-for-performance (P4P) scheme in Britain was introduced for primary care physicians (PCPs) to offer advice about LARC methods to a specified proportion of women attending for contraceptive care to improve contraceptive choice. We examined the impact and equity of this scheme on LARC uptake and abortions.Methods and findingsWe examined records of 3,281,667 women aged 13 to 54 years registered with a primary care clinic in Britain (England, Wales, and Scotland) using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from 2004/2005 to 2013/2014. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to examine trends in annual LARC and non-LARC hormonal contraception (NLHC) uptake and abortion rates, stratified by age and deprivation groups, before and after the P4P was introduced in 2009/2010. Between 2004/2005 and 2013/2014, crude LARC uptake rates increased by 32.0% from 29.6 per 1,000 women to 39.0 per 1,000 women, compared with 18.0% decrease in NLHC uptake. LARC uptake among women of all ages increased immediately after the P4P with step change of 5.36 per 1,000 women (all values are per 1,000 women unless stated, 95% CI 5.26-5.45, p < 0.001). Women aged 20 to 24 years had the largest step change (8.40, 8.34-8.47, p < 0.001) and sustained trend increase (3.14, 3.08-3.19, p < 0.001) compared with other age groups. NLHC uptake fell in all women with a step change of -22.8 (-24.5 to -21.2, p < 0.001), largely due to fall in combined hormonal contraception (CHC; -15.0, -15.5 to -14.5, p < 0.001). Abortion rates in all women fell immediately after the P4P with a step change of -2.28 (-2.98 to -1.57, p = 0.002) and sustained decrease in trend of -0.88 (-1.12 to -0.63, p < 0.001). The largest falls occurred in women aged 13 to 19 years (step change -5.04, -7.56 to -2.51, p = 0.011), women aged 20 to 24 years (step change -4.52, -7.48 to -1.57, p = 0.030), and women from the most deprived group (step change -4.40, -6.89 to -1.91, p = 0.018). We estimate that by 2013/2014, the P4P scheme resulted in an additional 4.53 LARC prescriptions per 1,000 women (relative increase of 13.4%) more than would have been expected without the scheme. There was a concurrent absolute reduction of -5.31 abortions per 1,000 women, or -38.3% relative reduction. Despite universal coverage of healthcare, some women might have obtained contraception elsewhere or had abortion procedure that was not recorded on CPRD. Other policies aiming to increase LARC use or reduce unplanned pregnancies around the same time could also explain the findings.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that LARC uptake increased and abortions fell in the period after the P4P scheme in British primary care, with additional impact for young women aged 20-24 years and those from deprived backgrounds.

Objective To describe changing use of primary care in relation to use of urgent care and planned hospital services by children aged less than 15 years in England in the decade following major primary care reforms from 2007 to 2017Design Population-based retrospective cohort study.Methods We used linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink to study children’s primary care consultations and use of hospital care including emergency department (ED) visits, emergency and elective admissions to hospital and outpatient visits to specialists.Results Between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2017, there were 7 604 024 general practitioner (GP) consultations, 981 684 ED visits, 287 719 emergency hospital admissions, 2 253 533 outpatient visits and 194 034 elective admissions among 1 484 455 children aged less than 15 years. Age-standardised GP consultation rates fell (−1.0%/year) to 1864 per 1000 child-years in 2017 in all age bands except infants rising by 1%/year to 6722 per 1000/child-years in 2017. ED visit rates increased by 1.6%/year to 369 per 1000 child-years in 2017, with steeper rises of 3.9%/year in infants (780 per 1000 child-years in 2017). Emergency hospital admission rates rose steadily by 3%/year to 86 per 1000 child-years and outpatient visit rates rose to 724 per 1000 child-years in 2017.Conclusions Over the past decade since National Health Service primary care reforms, GP consultation rates have fallen for all children, except for infants. Children’s use of hospital urgent and outpatient care has risen in all ages, especially infants. These changes signify the need for better access and provision of specialist and community-based support for families with young children.

Abstract Background The concept of a weekend effect, poorer outcomes for patients admitted to hospitals at the weekend is not new, but is the focus of debate in England. Many studies have been published which consider outcomes for patients on admitted at the weekend. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to estimate the effect of weekend admission on mortality in UK hospitals. Methods This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies on the weekend effect in UK hospitals. We used EMBASE, MEDLINE, HMIC, Cochrane, Web of Science and Scopus to search for relevant papers. We included systematic reviews, randomised controlled trials and observational studies) on patients admitted to hospital in the UK and published after 2001. Our outcome was death; studies reporting mortality were included. Reviewers identified studies, extracted data and assessed the quality of the evidence, independently and in duplicate. Discrepancy in assessment was considered by a third reviewer. All meta-analyses were performed using a random-effects meta-regression to incorporate the heterogeneity into the weighting. Results Forty five articles were included in the qualitative synthesis. 53% of the articles concluded that outcomes for patients either undergoing surgery or admitted at the weekend were worse. We included 39 in the meta-analysis which contributed 57 separate analyses. We found an effect of 1.07 [odds ratio (OR)] (95%CI:1.03–1.12), suggesting that patients admitted at the weekend had higher odds of mortality than those admitted during the week. Sub-group analyses suggest that the weekend effect remained when measures of case mix severity were included in the models (OR:1.06 95%CI:1.02–1.10), but that the weekend effect was not significant when clinical registry data was used (OR:1.03 95%CI: 0.98–1.09). Heterogeneity was high, which may affect generalisability. Conclusions Despite high levels of heterogeneity, we found evidence of a weekend effect in the UK, even after accounting for severity of disease. Further work is required to examine other potential explanations for the “weekend effect” such as staffing levels and other organisational factors. Trial registration PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews -registration number: CRD42016041225.

Abstract Background Universal health coverage (UHC) aims to improve child health through preventive primary care and vaccine coverage. Yet, in many developed countries with UHC, unplanned and ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) hospital admissions in childhood continue to rise. We investigated the relation between preventive primary care and risk of unplanned and ACS admission in children in a high-income country with UHC. Methods We followed 319,780 children registered from birth with 363 English practices in Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episodes Statistics, born between January 2000 and March 2013. We used Cox regression estimating adjusted hazard ratios (HR) to examine subsequent risk of unplanned and ACS hospital admissions in children who received preventive primary care (development checks and vaccinations), compared with those who did not. Results Overall, 98% of children had complete vaccinations and 87% had development checks. Unplanned admission rates were 259, 105 and 42 per 1000 child-years in infants (aged

Abstract Background Hospital mortality, readmission and length of stay (LOS) are commonly used measures for quality of care. We aimed to disentangle the correlations between these interrelated measures and propose a new way of combining them to evaluate the quality of hospital care. Methods We analyzed administrative data from the Global Comparators Project from 26 hospitals on patients discharged between 2007 and 2012. We correlated standardized and risk-adjusted hospital outcomes on mortality, readmission and long LOS. We constructed a composite measure with 5 levels, based on literature review and expert advice, from survival without readmission and normal LOS (best) to mortality (worst outcome). This composite measure was analyzed using ordinal regression, to obtain a standardized outcome measure to compare hospitals. Results Overall, we observed a 3.1% mortality rate, 7.8% readmission rate (in survivors) and 20.8% long LOS rate among 4,327,105 admissions. Mortality and LOS were correlated at the patient and the hospital level. A patient in the upper quartile LOS had higher odds of mortality (odds ratio = 1.45, 95% confidence interval 1.43–1.47) than those in the lowest quartile. Hospitals with a high standardized mortality had higher proportions of long LOS (r = 0.79, p

Abstract Background Secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has improved immensely during the past decade but controversies persist on cardiovascular benefits among women with diabetes. We investigated 11-year trends in hospital admission rates for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in people with and without diabetes by gender in England. Methods We identified all hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease causes among people aged 17 years and above between 2004 and 2014 in England. We calculated diabetes-specific and non-diabetes-specific rates for study outcomes by gender. To assess temporal changes, we fitted negative binomial regression models. Results Diabetes-related admission rates remained unchanged for AMI (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.99 [95% CI 0.98–1.01]), increased for stroke by 2% (1.02 [1.01–1.03]) and PCI by 3% (1.03 [1.01–1.04]) and declined for CABG by 3% (0.97 [0.96–0.98]) annually. Trends did not differ significantly by diabetes status. Women with diabetes had significantly lower rates of AMI (IRR 0.46 [95% CI 0.40–0.53]) and stroke (0.73 [0.63–0.84]) compared with men with diabetes. However, gender differences in admission rates for AMI attenuated in diabetes compared with the non-diabetic group. While diabetes tripled admission rates for AMI in men (IRR 3.15 [95% CI 2.72–3.64]), it increased it by over fourfold among women (4.27 [3.78–4.93]). Furthermore, while the presence of diabetes was associated with a threefold increased rates for PCI and fivefold increased rates for CABG (IRR 3.14 [2.83–3.48] and 5.01 [4.59–5.05], respectively) in men, among women diabetes was associated with a 4.4-fold increased admission rates for PCI and 6.2-fold increased rates for CABG (4.37 [3.93–4.85] and 6.24 [5.66–6.88], respectively). Proportional changes in rates were similar in men and women for all study outcomes, leaving the relative risk of admissions unchanged. Conclusions Diabetes still confers a greater increase in risk of hospital admission for AMI in women relative to men. However, the absolute risk remains higher in men. These results call for intensified CVD risk factor management among people with diabetes, consideration of gender-specific treatment targets and treatment intensity to be aligned with levels of CVD risk.

Objectives This study aimed to examine the prevalence of frailty coding within the Dr Foster Global Comparators (GC) international database. We then aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model, based on frailty syndromes, for key outcomes using the GC data set.Design A retrospective cohort analysis of data from patients over 75 years of age from the GC international administrative data. A risk prediction model was developed from the initial analysis based on seven frailty syndrome groups and their relationship to outcome metrics. A weighting was then created for each syndrome group and summated to create the Dr Foster Global Frailty Score. Performance of the score for predictive capacity was compared with an established prognostic comorbidity model (Elixhauser) and tested on another administrative database Hospital Episode Statistics (2011-2015), for external validation.Setting 34 hospitals from nine countries across Europe, Australia, the UK and USA.Results Of 6.7 million patient records in the GC database, 1.4 million (20%) were from patients aged 75 years or more. There was marked variation in coding of frailty syndromes between countries and hospitals. Frailty syndromes were coded in 2% to 24% of patient spells. Falls and fractures was the most common syndrome coded (24%). The Dr Foster Global Frailty Score was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality, 30-day non-elective readmission and long length of hospital stay. The score had significant predictive capacity beyond that of other known predictors of poor outcome in older persons, such as comorbidity and chronological age. The score’s predictive capacity was higher in the elective group compared with non-elective, and may reflect improved performance in lower acuity states.Conclusions Frailty syndromes can be coded in international secondary care administrative data sets. The Dr Foster Global Frailty Score significantly predicts key outcomes. This methodology may be feasibly utilised for case-mix adjustment for older persons internationally.

IntroductionReadmissions are a recognised challenge for providers of healthcare and incur financial penalties in a growing number of countries. However, the scale of unscheduled hospital contacts including attendances at emergency departments that do not result in admission is not well known. In addition, little is known about the route to readmission for patients recently discharged from an emergency hospital stay.MethodsThis is an observational study of national hospital administration data for England. In this retrospective cohort study, we tracked patients for 30 days after discharge from an emergency admission for heart failure (HF) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD).ResultsThe majority of patients (COPD:79%; HF:75%) had no unscheduled contact with secondary health care within 30 days of discharge. Of those who did have unscheduled contact, the most common first unscheduled contact was emergency department (ED) attendance (COPD:16%; HF:18%). A further 5% of COPD patients and 4% of HF patients were admitted for an emergency inpatient stay, but not through the ED. A small percentage of patients (COPD:ConclusionWhile the majority of patients did not have unscheduled contact with secondary care in the 30 days after index discharge, many patients attended the ED, often multiple times, and many were admitted to hospital, not always via the ED. More frail patients were more likely to be admitted through the ED, suggesting a possible area of focus as discharge bundles are developed.

AimsTo identify predictors of early revision (within 3 years of the index operation) for hip and knee replacement (HR, KR) from both surgeon and population perspectives.Patients and methodsHierarchical logistic regression on national administrative data for England for index procedures between April 2009 and March 2014.ResultsThere were 315,273 index HR procedures and 374,530 index KR procedures for analysis. Three-year revision rates were 2.1% for HR and 2.2% for KR. The highest odds ratios for HR were for 3+ previous emergency admissions, drug abuse, Parkinson's disease, resurfacing and ages under 60; for KR these were patellofemoral or partial joint replacement, 3+ previous emergency admissions, paralysis and ages under 60. Smaller effects were found for other comorbidities such as obesity (HR) and diabetes (KR). From a population perspective, the only population attributable fractions over 5% were for male gender, uncemented total hip replacements and partial knee or patellofemoral replacements.ConclusionsMeeting the rising demand for revision surgery is a challenge for healthcare leaders and policymakers. Our findings suggest optimising patients pre-operatively and improving patient selection for primary arthroplasty may reduce the burden of early revision of arthroplasty. Our study gives useful information on the additional risks of various comorbidities and procedures, which enables a more informed consent process.Clinical relevanceSurgeons should make patients with certain risk factors such as age and procedure type aware of their higher revision risk as part of shared decision-making.

Background: Heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) lead to unplanned hospital activity, but our understanding of what drives this is incomplete. Objectives: To model patient, primary care and hospital factors associated with readmission and mortality for patients with HF and COPD, to assess the statistical performance of post-discharge emergency department (ED) attendance compared with readmission metrics and to compare all the results for the two conditions. Design: Observational study. Setting: English NHS. Participants: All patients admitted to acute non-specialist hospitals as an emergency for HF or COPD. Interventions: None. Main outcome measures: One-year mortality and 30-day emergency readmission following the patient’s first unplanned admission (‘index admission’) for HF or COPD. Data sources: Patient-level data from Hospital Episodes Statistics were combined with publicly available practice- and hospital-level data on performance, patient and staff experience and rehabilitation programme website information. Results: One-year mortality rates were 39.6% for HF and 24.1% for COPD and 30-day readmission rates were 19.8% for HF and 16.5% for COPD. Most patients were elderly with multiple comorbidities. Patient factors predicting mortality included older age, male sex, white ethnicity, prior missed outpatient appointments, (long) index length of hospital stay (LOS) and several comorbidities. Older age, missed appointments, (short) LOS and comorbidities also predicted readmission. Of the practice and hospital factors we considered, only more doctors per 10 beds [odds ratio (OR) 0.95 per doctor; p

Background: Since 2007, Imperial College London has generated monthly mortality alerts, based on statistical process control charts and using routinely collected hospital administrative data, for all English acute NHS hospital trusts. The impact of this system has not yet been studied. Objectives: To improve understanding of mortality alerts and evaluate their impact as an intervention to reduce mortality. Design: Mixed methods. Setting: English NHS acute hospital trusts. Participants: Eleven trusts were included in the case study. The survey involved 78 alerting trusts. Main outcome measures: Relative risk of mortality and perceived efficacy of the alerting system. Data sources: Hospital Episodes Statistics, published indicators on quality and safety, Care Quality Commission (CQC) reports, interviews and documentary evidence from case studies, and a national evaluative survey. Methods: Descriptive analysis of alerts; association with other measures of quality; associated change in mortality using an interrupted time series approach; in-depth qualitative case studies of institutional response to alerts; and a national cross-sectional evaluative survey administered to describe the organisational structure for mortality governance and perceptions of efficacy of alerts. Results: A total of 690 mortality alerts generated between April 2007 and December 2014. CQC pursued 75% (154/206) of alerts sent between 2011 and 2013. Patient care was cited as a factor in 70% of all investigations and in 89% of sepsis alerts. Alerts were associated with indicators on bed occupancy, hospital mortality, staffing, financial status, and patient and trainee satisfaction. On average, the risk of death fell by 58% during the 9-month lag following an alert, levelling afterwards and reaching an expected risk within 18 months of the alert. Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and sepsis alerts instigated institutional responses across all the case study sites, although most sites were undertaking some parallel activities at a more general level to address known problems in care in these and other areas. Responses included case note review and coding improvements, changes in patient pathways, changes in diagnosis of sepsis and AMI, staff training in case note write-up and coding, greater transparency in patient deterioration, and infrastructure changes. Survey data revealed that 86% of responding trusts had a dedicated trust-level lead for mortality reduction and 92% had a dedicated trust-level mortality group or committee in place. Trusts reported that mortality reduction was a high priority and that there was strong senior leadership support for mortality monitoring. The weakest areas reported concerned the accuracy of coding, the quality of specialty-level mortality data and understanding trends in specialty-level mortality data. Limitations: Owing to the correlational nature of our analysis, we could not ascribe a causal link between mortality alerts and reductions in mortality. The complexity of the institutional context and behaviour hindered our capacity to attribute locally reported changes specifically to the effects of the alerts rather than to ongoing institutional strategy. Conclusions: The mortality alert surveillance system reflects aspects of quality care and is valued by trusts. Alerts were considered a useful focus for identifying problems and implementing interventions around mortality. Future work: A further analysis of site visits and survey material, the application of evaluative framework to other interventions, a blinded case note review and the dissemination of findings. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Introduction. The aim of the study was to examine common sequences of causes of readmissions among those patients with multiple hospital admissions, high-impact users, after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to focus on strategies to reduce long-term readmission rate. Methods. The patient cohort (2006–2009) included patients from Hospital Episodes Statistics, the national administrative data of all NHS English hospitals, and followed up for 5 years. Group-based trajectory modelling and sequence analysis were performed on the data. Results. From a total of 16,973 elective AAA repair patients, 18% (n=3055) were high-impact users. The high-impact users among ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) repair constituted 17.3% of the patient population (n=4144). There were 2 subtypes of high-impact users, short-term (7.2%) with initial high readmission rate following by rapid decline and chronic high-impact (10.1%) with persistently high readmission rate. Common causes of readmissions following elective AAA repair were respiratory tract infection (7.3%), aortic graft complications (6.0%), unspecified chest pain (5.8%), and gastrointestinal haemorrhage (4.8%). However, high-impact users included significantly increased number of patients with multiple readmissions and distinct sequences of readmissions mainly consisting of COPD (4.7%), respiratory tract infection (4.7%), and ischaemic heart disease (3.3%). Conclusion. A significant number of patients were high-impact users after AAA repair. They had a common and distinct sequence of causes of readmissions following AAA repair, mainly consisting of cardiopulmonary conditions and aortic graft complications. The common causes of long-term mortality were not related to AAA repair. The quality of care can be improved by identifying these patients early and focusing on prevention of cardiopulmonary diseases in the community.

Introduction. The aim of the study was to use trajectory analysis to categorise high-impact users based on their long-term readmission rate and identify their predictors following AAA (abdominal aortic aneurysm) repair. Methods. In this retrospective cohort study, group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was performed on the patient cohort (2006-2009) identified through national administrative data from all NHS English hospitals. Proc Traj software was used in SAS program to conduct GBTM, which classified patient population into groups based on their annual readmission rates during a 5-year period following primary AAA repair. Based on the trends of readmission rates, patients were classified into low- and high-impact users. The high-impact group had a higher annual readmission rate throughout 5-year follow-up. Short-term high-impact users had initial high readmission rate followed by rapid decline, whereas chronic high-impact users continued to have high readmission rate. Results. Based on the trends in readmission rates, GBTM classified elective AAA repair (n=16,973) patients into 2 groups: low impact (82.0%) and high impact (18.0%). High-impact users were significantly associated with female sex (P=0.001) undergoing other vascular procedures (P=0.003), poor socioeconomic status index (P

The efficacy and safety of the new oral anticoagulants (NOAC) and the benefits of extended duration thromboprophylaxis following hip and knee replacements remain uncertain. This observational study describes the relations between thromboprophylaxis policies following hip and knee replacements across England's NHS and patient outcomes between January 2008 and December 2011. From the national administrative database, we analyzed mortality, thromboembolic complications, emergency readmission, and bleeding rates for 201,418 hip and 230,282 knee replacements. There were no differences in outcomes for either LMWH or NOAC. We found no advantage in favor of any single anticoagulation policy or in changing policy. This study supports the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons' recommendation that the choice and duration of thromboprophylaxis prophylaxis be decided by the treating surgeon.

Background Thoracic aortic disease has a high mortality. We sought to establish the contribution of unwarranted variation in care to regional differences in outcomes observed in patients with thoracic aortic disease in England. Methods and Results Data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit (NACSA) were extracted. A parallel systematic review/meta‐analysis through December 2015, and structure and process questionnaire of English cardiac surgery units were also accomplished. Treatment and mortality rates were investigated. A total of 24 548 adult patients in the HES study, 8058 in the NACSA study, and 103 543 from a total of 33 studies in the systematic review were obtained. Treatment rates for thoracic aortic disease within 6 months of index admission ranged from 7.6% to 31.5% between English counties. Risk‐adjusted 6‐month mortality in untreated patients ranged from 19.4% to 36.3%. Regional variation persisted after adjustment for disease or patient factors. Regional cardiac units with higher case volumes treated more‐complex patients and had significantly lower risk‐adjusted mortality relative to low‐volume units. The results of the systematic review indicated that the delivery of care by multidisciplinary teams in high‐volume units resulted in better outcomes. The observational analyses and the online survey indicated that this is not how services are configured in most units in England. Conclusions Changes in the organization of services that address unwarranted variation in the provision of care for patients with thoracic aortic disease in England may result in more‐equitable access to treatment and improved outcomes.

Objective. Understanding the chronological order of the causes of readmissions may help us assess any repeated chain of events among high-impact users, those with high readmission rate. We aim to perform sequence analysis of administrative data to identify distinct sequences of emergency readmissions among the high-impact users. Methods. A retrospective cohort of all cerebrovascular patients identified through national administrative data and followed for 4 years. Results. Common discriminating subsequences in chronic high-impact users (n=2863) of ischaemic stroke (n=34208) were “urological conditions-chest infection,” “chest infection-urological conditions,” “injury-urological conditions,” “chest infection-ambulatory condition,” and “ambulatory condition-chest infection” (p

To examine trends in patient experience and consistency between hospital trusts and settings.Observational study of publicly available patient experience surveys of three hospital settings (inpatients (IP), accident and emergency (A&E) and outpatients (OP)) of 130 acute NHS hospital trusts in England between 2004/05 and 2014/15.Overall patient experience has been good, showing modest improvements over time across the three hospital settings. Individual questions with the biggest improvement across all three settings are cleanliness (IP: +7.1, A&E: +6.5, OP: +4.7) and information about danger signals (IP: +3.8, A&E: +3.9, OP: +4.0). Trust performance has been consistent over time: 71.5% of trusts ranked in the same cluster for more than five years. There is some consistency across settings, especially between outpatients and inpatients. The lowest-scoring questions, regarding information at discharge, are the same in all years and all settings.The greatest improvement across all three settings has been for cleanliness, which has seen national policies and targets. Information about danger signals and medication side-effects showed least consistency across settings and scores have remained low over time, despite information about danger signals showing a big increase in score. Patient experience of aspects of access and waiting have declined, as has experience of discharge delay, likely reflecting known increases in pressure on England's NHS.

The rapid evolution of technology, sensors and personal digital devices offers an opportunity to acquire health related data seamlessly, unobtrusively and in real time. In this opinion piece, we discuss the relevance and opportunities for using digital sensing in dermatology, taking eczema as an exemplar.

Background: Previous research suggests that non-obstetric surgery is carried out in 1–2% of all pregnancies. However, there is limited evidence quantifying the associated risks. Furthermore, of the evidence available, none relates directly to outcomes in the UK, and there are no current NHS guidelines regarding non-obstetric surgery in pregnant women. Objectives: To estimate the risk of adverse birth outcomes of pregnancies in which non-obstetric surgery was or was not carried out. To further analyse common procedure groups. Data Source: Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) maternity data collected between 2002–3 and 2011–12. Main outcomes: Spontaneous abortion, preterm delivery, maternal death, caesarean delivery, long inpatient stay, stillbirth and low birthweight. Methods: We utilised HES, an administrative database that includes records of all patient admissions and day cases in all English NHS hospitals. We analysed HES maternity data collected between 2002–3 and 2011–12, and identified pregnancies in which non-obstetric surgery was carried out. We used logistic regression models to determine the adjusted relative risk and attributable risk of non-obstetric surgical procedures for adverse birth outcomes and the number needed to harm. Results: We identified 6,486,280 pregnancies, in 47,628 of which non-obstetric surgery was carried out. In comparison with pregnancies in which surgery was not carried out, we found that non-obstetric surgery was associated with a higher risk of adverse birth outcomes, although the attributable risk was generally low. We estimated that for every 287 pregnancies in which a surgical operation was carried out there was one additional stillbirth; for every 31 operations there was one additional preterm delivery; for every 25 operations there was one additional caesarean section; for every 50 operations there was one additional long inpatient stay; and for every 39 operations there was one additional low-birthweight baby. Limitations: We have no means of disentangling the effect of the surgery from the effect of the underlying condition itself. Many spontaneous abortions will not be associated with a hospital admission and, therefore, will not be included in our analysis. A spontaneous abortion may be more likely to be reported if it occurs during the same hospital admission as the procedure, and this could account for the associated increased risk with surgery during pregnancy. There are missing values of key data items to determine parity, gestational age, birthweight and stillbirth. Conclusions: This is the first study to report the risk of adverse birth outcomes following non-obstetric surgery during pregnancy across NHS hospitals in England. We have no means of disentangling the effect of the surgery from the effect of the underlying condition itself. Our observational study can never attribute a causal relationship between surgery and adverse birth outcomes, and we were unable to determine the risk of not undergoing surgery where surgery was clinically indicated. We have some reservations over associations of risk factors with spontaneous abortion because of potential ascertainment bias. However, we believe that our findings and, in particular, the numbers needed to harm improve on previous research, utilise a more recent and larger data set based on UK practices, and are useful reference points for any discussion of risk with prospective patients. The risk of adverse birth outcomes in pregnant women undergoing non-obstetric surgery is relatively low, confirming that surgical procedures during pregnancy are generally safe. Future work: Further evaluation of the association of non-obstetric surgery and spontaneous abortion. Evaluation of the impact of non-obstetric surgery on the newborn (e.g. neonatal intensive care unit admission, prolonged length of neonatal stay, neonatal death). Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

BackgroundStroke is among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Without reliable prediction models and outcome measurements, comparison of care systems is impossible. We analyzed prospectively collected data from 4 countries to explore the importance of stroke severity in outcome prediction. Methods and ResultsFor 2 months, all acute ischemic stroke patients from the hospitals participating in the Global Comparators Stroke GOAL (Global Outcomes Accelerated Learning) collaboration received a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score on admission and a modified Rankin Scale score at 30 and 90 days. These data were added to the administrative data set, and risk prediction models including age, sex, comorbidity index, and NIHSS were derived for in‐hospital death within 7 days, all in‐hospital death, and death and good outcome at 30 and 90 days. The relative importance of each variable was assessed using the proportion of explained variation. Of 1034 admissions for acute ischemic stroke, 614 had a full set of NIHSS and both modified Rankin Scale values recorded; of these, 507 patients could be linked to administrative data. The marginal proportion of explained variation was 0.7% to 4.0% for comorbidity index, and 11.3 to 25.0 for NIHSS score. The percentage explained by the model varied by outcome (16.6–29.1%) and was highest for good outcome at 30 and 90 days. There was high agreement between 30‐ and 90‐day modified Rankin Scale scores (weighted κ=0.82). ConclusionsIn this prospective pilot study, the baseline NIHSS score was essential for prediction of acute ischemic stroke outcomes, followed by age; whereas traditional comorbidity index contributed little to the overall model. Future studies of stroke outcomes between different care systems will benefit from including a baseline NIHSS score.

Background Targeted screening for cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be carried out using existing data from patient medical records. However, electronic medical records in UK general practice contain missing risk factor data for which values must be estimated to produce risk scores. Objective To compare two methods of substituting missing risk factor data; multiple imputation and the use of default National Health Survey values. Methods We took patient-level data from patients in 70 general practices in Ealing,North West London. We substituted missing risk factor data using the two methods, applied two risk scores (QRISK2 and JBS2) to the data and assessed differences between methods. Results Using multiple imputation, mean CVD risk scores were similar to those using default national survey values, a simple method of imputation. There were fewer patients designated as high risk (>20%) using multiple imputation, although differences were again small (10.3%compared with 11.7%; 3.0% compared with 3.4% in women). Agreement in high-risk classification between methods was high (Kappa = 0.91 in men; 0.90 in women). Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

During 1997–2006, general practitioner consultations for skin conditions for children

Background: This study evaluated the impact of a continuous quality monitoring and feedback initiative in anaesthesia. Objectives: To conduct a quasi-experimental evaluation of the feedback initiative and its effect on quality of anaesthetic care and perioperative efficiency. To understand the longitudinal effects of passive and active feedback and investigate the mechanisms and interactions underpinning those effects. Design: Mixed-methods evaluation with analysis and synthesis of data from longitudinal qualitative interviews, longitudinal evaluative surveys and an interrupted time series study. Intervention: Continuous measurement of a range of anaesthetic quality indicators was undertaken in a London teaching hospital alongside monthly personal feedback from case summary data to a cohort of anaesthetists, with follow-up roll-out to the whole NHS trust. Basic feedback consisted of the provision of passive monthly personalised feedback reports containing summary case data. In the enhanced phase, data feedback consisted of more sophisticated statistical breakdown of data, comparative and longitudinal views, and was paired with an active programme of dissemination and professional engagement. Methods: Baseline data collection began in March 2010. Implementation of basic feedback took place in October 2010, followed by implementation of the enhanced feedback protocol in July 2012. Weekly aggregated quality indicator data, coupled with surgical site infection and mortality rates, was modelled using interrupted time series analyses. The study anaesthetist cohort comprised 50,235 cases, performed by 44 anaesthetists over the course of the study, with 22,670 cases performed at the primary site. Anaesthetist responses to the surveys were collected pre and post implementation of feedback at all three sites in parallel with qualitative investigation. Seventy anaesthetists completed the survey at one or more time points and 35 health-care professionals, including 24 anaesthetists, were interviewed across two time points. Results: Results from the time series analysis of longitudinal variation in perioperative indicators did not support the hypothesis that implementation of basic feedback improved quality of anaesthetic care. The implementation of enhanced feedback was found to have a significant positive impact on two postoperative pain measures, nurse-recorded freedom from nausea, mean patient temperature on arrival in recovery and Quality of Recovery Scale scores. Analysis of survey data demonstrated that anaesthetists value perceived credibility of data and local relevance of quality indicators above other criteria when assessing utility of feedback. A significant improvement in the perceived value of quality indicators, feedback, data use and overall effectiveness was observed between baseline and implementation of feedback at the primary site, a finding replicated at the two secondary sites. Findings from the qualitative research elucidated processes of interaction between context, intervention and user, demonstrating a positive response by clinicians to this type of initiative and willingness to interact with a sustained and comprehensive feedback protocol to understand variations in care. Conclusions: The results support the potential of quality monitoring and feedback interventions as quality improvement mechanisms and provide insight into the positive response of clinicians to this type of initiative, including documentation of the experiences of anaesthetists that participated as users and codesigners of the feedback. Future work in this area might usefully investigate how this type of intervention may be transferred to other areas of clinical practice and further explore interactions between local context and the successful implementation of quality monitoring and feedback systems. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

BACKGROUND:Trends towards day case surgery and enhanced recovery mean that postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) may increasingly arise after hospital discharge. However, hospital data alone are unable to capture adverse events that occur outside of the hospital setting. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has suggested the use of primary care data to quantify hospital care-related VTE. Data in surgical patients using these resources is lacking. The aim of this study was to measure VTE risk and associated mortality in general surgery using linked primary care and hospital databases, to improve our understanding of harm from VTE that arises beyond hospital stay. METHODS:This was a longitudinal cohort study using nationally linked primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD), hospital administrative (Hospital Episodes Statistics, HES), population statistics (Office of National Statistics, ONS) and National Cancer Intelligence Network databases. Routinely collected information was used to quantify 90-day in-hospital VTE, 90-day post-discharge VTE and 90-day mortality in adults undergoing one of twelve general surgical procedures between 1st April 1997 and 31st March 2012. The earliest postoperative recording of deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism in CPRD, HES and ONS was counted in each patient. Covariates from multiple datasets were combined to derive detailed prediction models for VTE and mortality. Limitation included the capture of VTE presenting to healthcare only and the lack of information on adherence to pharmacological thromboprophylaxis as there was no data linkage to hospital pharmacy records. RESULTS:There were 981 VTE events captured within 90 days of surgery in 168005 procedures (23.7/1000 patient-years). Overall, primary care data increased the detection of postoperative VTE by a factor of 1.38 (981/710) when compared with using HES and ONS only. Total VTE rates ranged between 3.2/1000 patient-years in haemorrhoidectomy to 118.3/1000 patient-years in esophagogastric resection. Predictors of VTE included emergency surgery (OR = 1.91 95%CI 1.60-2.28, p

BACKGROUND:No formal definition for the "complex elderly" exists; moreover, these older patients with high levels of multi-morbidity are not readily identified as such at point of hospitalisation, thus missing a valuable opportunity to manage the older patient appropriately within the hospital setting. OBJECTIVES:To empirically identify the complex elderly patient based on degree of multi-morbidity. DESIGN:Retrospective observational study using administrative data. SETTING:English hospitals during the financial year 2012-13. SUBJECTS:All admitted patients aged 65 years and over. METHODS:By using exploratory analysis (correspondence analysis) we identify multi-morbidity groups based on 20 target conditions whose hospital prevalence was ≥ 1%. RESULTS:We examined a total of 2788900 hospital admissions. Multi-morbidity was highly prevalent, 62.8% had 2 or more of the targeted conditions while 4.7% had six or more. Multi-morbidity increased with age from 56% (65-69yr age-groups) up to 67% (80-84yr age-group). The average multi-morbidity was 3.2±1.2 (SD). Correspondence analysis revealed 3 distinct groups of older patients. Group 1 (multi-morbidity ≤2), associated with cancer and/or metastasis; Group 2 (multi-morbidity of 3, 4 or 5), associated with chronic pulmonary disease, lung disease, rheumatism and osteoporosis; finally Group 3 with the highest level of multi-morbidity (≥6) and associated with heart failure, cerebrovascular accident, diabetes, hypertension and myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS:By using widely available hospital administrative data, we propose patients in Groups 2 and 3 to be identified as the complex elderly. Identification of multi-morbidity patterns can help to predict the needs of the older patient and improve resource provision.

Background: NHS hospitals collect a wealth of administrative data covering accident and emergency (A&E) department attendances, inpatient and day case activity, and outpatient appointments. Such data are increasingly being used to compare units and services, but adjusting for risk is difficult. Objectives: To derive robust risk-adjustment models for various patient groups, including those admitted for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction, colorectal and orthopaedic surgery, and outcomes adjusting for available patient factors such as comorbidity, using England’s Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data. To assess if more sophisticated statistical methods based on machine learning such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform traditional logistic regression (LR) for risk prediction. To update and assess for the NHS the Charlson index for comorbidity. To assess the usefulness of outpatient data for these models. Main outcome measures: Mortality, readmission, return to theatre, outpatient non-attendance. For HF patients we considered various readmission measures such as diagnosis-specific and total within a year. Methods: We systematically reviewed studies comparing two or more comorbidity indices. Logistic regression, ANNs, support vector machines and random forests were compared for mortality and readmission. Models were assessed using discrimination and calibration statistics. Competing risks proportional hazards regression and various count models were used for future admissions and bed-days. Results: Our systematic review and empirical analysis suggested that for general purposes comorbidity is currently best described by the set of 30 Elixhauser comorbidities plus dementia. Model discrimination was often high for mortality and poor, or at best moderate, for other outcomes, for example c = 0.62 for readmission and c = 0.73 for death following stroke. Calibration was often good for procedure groups but poorer for diagnosis groups, with overprediction of low risk a common cause. The machine learning methods we investigated offered little beyond LR for their greater complexity and implementation difficulties. For HF, some patient-level predictors differed by primary diagnosis of readmission but not by length of follow-up. Prior non-attendance at outpatient appointments was a useful, strong predictor of readmission. Hospital-level readmission rates for HF did not correlate with readmission rates for non-HF; hospital performance on national audit process measures largely correlated only with HF readmission rates. Conclusions: Many practical risk-prediction or casemix adjustment models can be generated from HES data using LR, though an extra step is often required for accurate calibration. Including outpatient data in readmission models is useful. The three machine learning methods we assessed added little with these data. Readmission rates for HF patients should be divided by diagnosis on readmission when used for quality improvement. Future work: As HES data continue to develop and improve in scope and accuracy, they can be used more, for instance A&E records. The return to theatre metric appears promising and could be extended to other index procedures and specialties. While our data did not warrant the testing of a larger number of machine learning methods, databases augmented with physiological and pathology information, for example, might benefit from methods such as boosted trees. Finally, one could apply the HF readmissions analysis to other chronic conditions. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

ObjectiveTo assess whether increased awareness and diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (OSAS) and national guidance on tonsillectomy for recurrent tonsillitis have influenced the socio-demographic profile of children who underwent tonsillectomy over the last decade.MethodRetrospective time-trends study of Hospital Episodes Statistics data. We examined the age, sex and deprivation level, alongside OSAS diagnoses, among children aged ResultsAmong children aged Conclusions(Adeno)tonsillectomy rates declined among children aged 4-15 years, which reflects national guidelines recommending the restriction of the operation to children with more severe recurrent throat infections. However, (adeno)tonsillectomy rates among pre-school children substantially increased over the past decade and one in five children undergoing the operation was aged

To examine the timing and duration of RSV bronchiolitis hospital admission among term and preterm infants in England and to identify risk factors for bronchiolitis admission.A population-based birth cohort with follow-up to age 1 year, using the Hospital Episode Statistics database.71 hospitals across England.We identified 296618 individual birth records from 2007/08 and linked to subsequent hospital admission records during the first year of life.In our cohort there were 7189 hospital admissions with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis, 24.2 admissions per 1000 infants under 1 year (95%CI 23.7-24.8), of which 15% (1050/7189) were born preterm (47.3 bronchiolitis admissions per 1000 preterm infants (95% CI 44.4-50.2)). The peak age group for bronchiolitis admissions was infants aged 1 month and the median was age 120 days (IQR = 61-209 days). The median length of stay was 1 day (IQR = 0-3). The relative risk (RR) of a bronchiolitis admission was higher among infants with known risk factors for severe RSV infection, including those born preterm (RR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.8-2.0) compared with infants born at term. Other conditions also significantly increased risk of bronchiolitis admission, including Down's syndrome (RR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.7-3.7) and cerebral palsy (RR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-4.0).Most (85%) of the infants who are admitted to hospital with bronchiolitis in England are born at term, with no known predisposing risk factors for severe RSV infection, although risk of admission is higher in known risk groups. The early age of bronchiolitis admissions has important implications for the potential impact and timing of future active and passive immunisations. More research is needed to explain why babies born with Down's syndrome and cerebral palsy are also at higher risk of hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis.

BACKGROUND: According to clinical guidelines, every patient affected by stroke should be given a brain-imaging scan (BIS) - Computerized Tomography or Magnetic Resonance Imaging - immediately after being admitted to hospital. AIM OF THE STUDY: To describe the variation in use of BIS among English public hospitals and identify any patient groups being excluded from appropriate care. METHODS: We collected hospital administrative data for all patients admitted to any English public hospital with a principal diagnosis of stroke from 2006 to 2009. We calculated the proportion of patients treated with BIS in the whole sample and after stratification by hospital. We compared hospitals' performance using funnel plots. We performed a multiple logistic regression analysis using BIS as outcome and age, gender, socio-economic deprivation, and comorbidity as covariates. RESULTS: In English public hospitals there are about 70,000 emergency admissions for stroke per year. Nationally, only 35% receive a BIS immediately, and only 84% receive it within the admission. There is large variation in the use of BIS for stroke patients among English public hospitals, with some of them approaching the recommended 100% and some having very low rates. Young (P