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ABSTRACTSuccessive waves of infection by SARS-CoV-2 have left little doubt that this virus will transition to an endemic disease. Foreknowledge of when to expect seasonal surges is crucial for healthcare and public health decision-making. However, the future seasonality of COVID-19 remains uncertain. Evaluating its seasonality is complicated due to the limited years of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, pandemic dynamics, and varied interventions. In this study, we project the expected endemic seasonality by employing a phylogenetic ancestral and descendant state approach that leverages long-term data on the incidence of circulating HCoV coronaviruses. Our projections indicate asynchronous surges of SARS-CoV-2 across different locations in the northern hemisphere, occurring between October and January in New York and between January and March in Yamagata, Japan. This knowledge of spatiotemporal surges leads to medical preparedness and enables the implementation of targeted public health interventions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission.IMPORTANCEThe seasonality of COVID-19 is important for effective healthcare and public health decision-making. Previous waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections have indicated that the virus will likely persist as an endemic pathogen with distinct surges. However, the timing and patterns of potentially seasonal surges remain uncertain, rendering effective public health policies uninformed and in danger of poorly anticipating opportunities for intervention, such as well-timed booster vaccination drives. Applying an evolutionary approach to long-term data on closely related circulating coronaviruses, our research provides projections of seasonal surges that should be expected at major temperate population centers. These projections enable local public health efforts that are tailored to expected surges at specific locales or regions. This knowledge is crucial for enhancing medical preparedness and facilitating the implementation of targeted public health interventions.

Abstract Following the draft sequence of the first human genome over 20 years ago, we have achieved unprecedented insights into the rules governing its evolution, often with direct translational relevance to specific diseases. However, staggering sequence complexity has also challenged the development of a more comprehensive understanding of human genome biology. In this context, interspecific genomic studies between humans and other animals have played a critical role in our efforts to decode human gene families. In this review, we focus on how the rapid surge of genome sequencing of both model and non-model organisms now provides a broader comparative framework poised to empower novel discoveries. We begin with a general overview of how comparative approaches are essential for understanding gene family evolution in the human genome, followed by a discussion of analyses of gene expression. We show how homology can provide insights into the genes and gene families associated with immune response, cancer biology, vision, chemosensation, and metabolism, by revealing similarity in processes among distant species. We then explain methodological tools that provide critical advances and show the limitations of common approaches. We conclude with a discussion of how these investigations position us to gain fundamental insights into the evolution of gene families among living organisms in general. We hope that our review catalyzes additional excitement and research on the emerging field of comparative genomics, while aiding the placement of the human genome into its existentially evolutionary context.

Abstract Hemidactylus mabouia is one of the most successful, widespread invasive reptile species and has become ubiquitous across tropical urban settings in the Western Hemisphere. Its ability to thrive in close proximity to humans has been linked to the rapid disappearance of native geckos. However, aspects of Hemidactylus mabouia natural history and ecomorphology, often assumed to be linked with this effect on native populations, remain understudied or untested. Here, we combine data from ∂15N and ∂13C stable isotopes, stomach contents, and morphometric analyses of traits associated with feeding and locomotion to test alternate hypotheses of displacement between H. mabouia and a native gecko, Phyllodactylus martini, on the island of Curaçao. We demonstrate substantial overlap of invertebrate prey resources between the species, with H. mabouia stomachs containing larger arthropod prey as well as vertebrate prey. We additionally show that H. mabouia possesses several morphological advantages, including larger sizes in feeding‐associated traits and limb proportions that could offer a propulsive locomotor advantage on vertical surfaces. Together, these findings provide the first support for the hypotheses that invasive H. mabouia and native P. martini overlap in prey resources and that H. mabouia possess ecomorphological advantages over P. martini. This work provides critical context for follow‐up studies of H. mabouia and P. martini natural history and direct behavioral experiments that may ultimately illuminate the mechanisms underlying displacement on this island and act as a potential model for other systems with Hemidactylus mabouia invasions.

Abstract Allopatry has traditionally been viewed as the primary driver of speciation in marine taxa, but the geography of the marine environment and the larval dispersal capabilities of many marine organisms render this view somewhat questionable. In marine fishes, one of the earliest and most highly cited empirical examples of ecological speciation with gene flow is the slippery dick wrasse, Halichoeres bivittatus. Evidence for this cryptic or incipient speciation event was primarily in the form of a deep divergence in a single mitochondrial locus between the northern and southern Gulf of Mexico, combined with a finding that these two haplotypes were associated with different habitat types (“tropical” vs. “subtropical”) in the Florida Keys and Bermuda, where they overlap. Here, we examine habitat assortment in the Florida Keys using a broader sampling of populations and habitat types than were available for the original study. We find no evidence to support the claim that haplotype frequencies differ between habitat types, and little evidence to support any differences between populations in the Keys. These results undermine claims of ecological speciation with gene flow in Halichoeres bivittatus. Future claims of this type should be supported by multiple lines of evidence that illuminate potential mechanisms and allow researchers to rule out alternative explanations for spatial patterns of genetic differences.

Abstract Background Advances in next-generation sequencing technologies have reduced the cost of whole transcriptome analyses, allowing characterization of non-model species at unprecedented levels. The rapid pace of transcriptomic sequencing has driven the public accumulation of a wealth of data for phylogenomic analyses, however lack of tools aimed towards phylogeneticists to efficiently identify orthologous sequences currently hinders effective harnessing of this resource. Results We introduce TOAST, an open source R software package that can utilize the ortholog searches based on the software Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs (BUSCO) to assemble multiple sequence alignments of orthologous loci from transcriptomes for any group of organisms. By streamlining search, query, and alignment, TOAST automates the generation of locus and concatenated alignments, and also presents a series of outputs from which users can not only explore missing data patterns across their alignments, but also reassemble alignments based on user-defined acceptable missing data levels for a given research question. Conclusions TOAST provides a comprehensive set of tools for assembly of sequence alignments of orthologs for comparative transcriptomic and phylogenomic studies. This software empowers easy assembly of public and novel sequences for any target database of candidate orthologs, and fills a critically needed niche for tools that enable quantification and testing of the impact of missing data. As open-source software, TOAST is fully customizable for integration into existing or novel custom informatic pipelines for phylogenomic inference. Software, a detailed manual, and example data files are available through github carolinafishes.github.io

Summary: Background: Among the most consequential unknowns of the devastating COVID-19 pandemic are the durability of immunity and time to likely reinfection. There are limited direct data on SARS-CoV-2 long-term immune responses and reinfection. The aim of this study is to use data on the durability of immunity among evolutionarily close coronavirus relatives of SARS-CoV-2 to estimate times to reinfection by a comparative evolutionary analysis of related viruses SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, human coronavirus (HCoV)-229E, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-NL63. Methods: We conducted phylogenetic analyses of the S, M, and ORF1b genes to reconstruct a maximum-likelihood molecular phylogeny of human-infecting coronaviruses. This phylogeny enabled comparative analyses of peak-normalised nucleocapsid protein, spike protein, and whole-virus lysate IgG antibody optical density levels, in conjunction with reinfection data on endemic human-infecting coronaviruses. We performed ancestral and descendent states analyses to estimate the expected declines in antibody levels over time, the probabilities of reinfection based on antibody level, and the anticipated times to reinfection after recovery under conditions of endemic transmission for SARS-CoV-2, as well as the other human-infecting coronaviruses. Findings: We obtained antibody optical density data for six human-infecting coronaviruses, extending from 128 days to 28 years after infection between 1984 and 2020. These data provided a means to estimate profiles of the typical antibody decline and probabilities of reinfection over time under endemic conditions. Reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur between 3 months and 5·1 years after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. This protection is less than half the duration revealed for the endemic coronaviruses circulating among humans (5–95% quantiles 15 months to 10 years for HCoV-OC43, 31 months to 12 years for HCoV-NL63, and 16 months to 12 years for HCoV-229E). For SARS-CoV, the 5–95% quantiles were 4 months to 6 years, whereas the 95% quantiles for MERS-CoV were inconsistent by dataset. Interpretation: The timeframe for reinfection is fundamental to numerous aspects of public health decision making. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, reinfection is likely to become increasingly common. Maintaining public health measures that curb transmission—including among individuals who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2—coupled with persistent efforts to accelerate vaccination worldwide is critical to the prevention of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Funding: US National Science Foundation.

Abstract Historical records from museums or government agencies are of tremendous utility for illuminating the factors that shape the spatial distribution of the planet’s biodiversity. However, these data were often collected under heterogeneous and opportunistic sampling designs and therefore likely contain significant sampling biases that change over time. Understanding historical biases is particularly important for aquatic vertebrates, where no studies of changes in sampling effort have yet been conducted. Here, we use a dataset of 276,138 records that span all freshwater fishes known to occur in North Carolina as a case study from which to highlight major shifts in collection trends that cause sample biases in datasets that aggregate historical records. We found evidence for three distinct phases of sampling over the last two centuries: (1) early sampling in the late 19th and early 20th century that was largely dominated by the research interests of a few “mega‐collectors”; (2) a mid‐20th century shift toward more widespread sampling; and (3) a major surge of sampling that corresponds to the rise of major environmental movements. We find each period possesses distinct phylogenetic and spatial biases. Moreover, these phases mirror trends in other spatial datasets that aggregate historical records spanning plants to terrestrial vertebrates, thereby suggesting that historical contingency and a temporal bias toward recent records are likely hallmarks of compiled historical datasets. Given that the pace of spatial data sampling continues to grow, our results strongly caution that the continued development of new models and methods to mitigate against bias‐driven statistical artifacts will be critical to effectively harnessing the power of historical data.

Despite the promise of hematological parameters and blood chemistry in monitoring the health of marine fishes, baseline data is often lacking for small fishes that comprise central roles in marine food webs. This study establishes blood chemistry and hematological baseline parameters for the pinfish Lagodon rhomboides, a small marine teleost that is among the most dominant members of near-shore estuarine communities of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Given their prominence, pinfishes are an ideal candidate species to use as a model for monitoring changes across a wide range of near-shore marine communities. However, pinfishes exhibit substantial morphological differences associated with a preference for feeding in primarily sea-grass or sand dominated habitats, suggesting that differences in the foraging ecology of individuals could confound health assessments. Here we collect baseline data on the blood physiology of pinfish while assessing the relationship between blood parameters and measured aspects of feeding morphology using data collected from 37 individual fish. Our findings provide new baseline health data for this important near shore fish species and find no evidence for a strong linkage between blood physiology and either sex or measured aspects of feeding morphology. Comparing our hematological and biochemical data to published results from other marine teleost species suggests that analyses of trends in blood value variation correlated with major evolutionary transitions in ecology will shed new light on the physiological changes that underlie the successful diversification of fishes.