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Purpose Aspirin and omega-3 fatty acids (FAs) are potential disease modifiers of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), but previous studies have produced inconsistent findings. Randomised evidence for the efficacy and safety of aspirin and omega-3 FAs on AMD is presented in this study.Design ASCEND-Eye is a substudy of eye effects in the 2×2 factorial design ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes) double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events. Reports of AMD diagnoses were sourced from 6 monthly ASCEND follow-up questionnaires and a Visual Function Questionnaire.Participants 15 480 UK adults at least 40 years of age with diabetes but no evident cardiovascular disease.Interventions 100 mg aspirin daily versus placebo and, separately, 1 g omega-3 FAs daily versus placebo.Main outcome measure The first post-randomisation reports of AMD.Results During 7.4 years of follow-up, 122 (1.6%) participants randomised to aspirin were reported as having AMD, compared with 138 (1.8%) randomised to placebo (rate ratio 0.88; 95% CI 0.69 to 1.12; p=0.31). AMD occurred in 130 (1.7%) participants randomised to omega-3 FAs, compared with 130 (1.7%) randomised to placebo (rate ratio 0.99; 95% CI 0.78 to 1.27; p=0.99).Conclusion No clinically-meaningful effects of aspirin or omega-3 FAs on AMD were found. Although the study had very limited statistical power to detect clinically relevant effects, these data overcome some methodological limitations of previous observational studies, providing randomised evidence of both treatments on AMD, which could contribute to future meta-analyses.Trial registration number ISRCTN60635500 and NCT00135226.

Abstract Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.

Background Globally, there is increasing interest in the use of real-world data (RWD) and real-world evidence (RWE) to inform health technology assessment (HTA) and reimbursement decision-making. Using current practices and case studies shared by eleven health systems in Asia, a non-binding guidance that seeks to align practices for generating and using RWD/RWE for decision-making in Asia was developed by the REAL World Data In ASia for HEalth Technology Assessment in Reimbursement (REALISE) Working Group, addressing a current gap and needs among HTA users and generators.Methods The guidance document was developed over two face-to-face workshops, in addition to an online survey, a face-to-face interview and pragmatic search of literature. The specific focus was on what, where and how to collect RWD/RWE.Results All 11 REALISE member jurisdictions participated in the online survey and the first in-person workshop, 10 participated in the second in-person workshop, and 8 participated in the in-depth face-to-face interviews. The guidance document was iteratively reviewed by all working group members and the International Advisory Panel. There was substantial variation in: (a) sources and types of RWD being used in HTA, and (b) the relative importance and prioritization of RWE being used for policy-making. A list of national-level databases and other sources of RWD available in each country was compiled. A list of useful guidance on data collection, quality assurance and study design were also compiled.Conclusion The REALISE guidance document serves to align the collection of better quality RWD and generation of reliable RWE to ultimately inform HTA in Asia.

Introduction Smoking is harmful, and its cessation is recommended to prevent chronic kidney disease, which often begins with abnormal leakage of albumin in the urine, called albuminuria. Smoking cessation’s effect on albuminuria depends on the pack-years smoked, length of abstinence, body mass index (BMI) and glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c). Using the UK Biobank data, we examined the relationship between these cardiorenal variables and albuminuria.Methods For this study, we selected a UK Biobank cohort with urinary albumin concentration (UAC) in the first and second visits. Participants were divided into progressor and regressor groups, where progressors were defined as those with increased UAC value, and regressors were those with decreased UAC value. Three different logistic regression models were fitted. In model 1, with a cohort design, we explored the impact of a change in age, HbA1c and BMI between the first and second visits and the UAC. In model 2 and 3, in a cross-sectional design, we explored which cardiorenal risk factors were associated with a rise or fall of UAC at the time point of the second visit. Results are expressed in OR and 95% CI.Results The prevalence of albuminuria was highest in ex-smokers who started smoking between the ages of 13 and 18. With a mean duration of 51 months, there was no statistically significant relationship between smoking status and BMI with albuminuria. Each year of ageing and each unit of increase in HbA1c (mmol/mol) increased the odds of progression of albuminuria by 20% and 3%, respectively. In ex-smokers, at the time point of the second visit, each year of smoking increased, and each year of abstinence decreased the odds by 4% and 6%, respectively.Conclusion Smokers should be supported to stop smoking and remain abstinent despite short-term weight gain. Childhood smoking should be actively discouraged.

Background: Prevention of hospital-onset bacteremia (HOB) in all settings is a healthcare priority. The CDC is developing a neonatal-specific HOB quality metric, but the epidemiology of neonatal HOB is poorly understood. Our objective was to validate a prior single-center finding that HOB risk varies by birthweight and postnatal age in a multicenter cohort. Methods: We performed a multicenter, retrospective cohort study of neonates admitted to 4 neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) for ≥4 days between July 1, 2016, and July 1, 2021. HOB was defined as a positive blood culture for bacteria or fungi on day ≥4 of admission. The first HOB event in the hospitalization was counted per neonate. Repeat HOB events during a neonate’s admission were excluded. Poisson regression models with robust variance estimates were used to estimate the incidence rate (IR) of HOB, expressed as HOB events per 1,000 patient days and IR ratios (IRRs), within strata defined by CDC birthweight categories and 4-week postnatal age intervals, adjusting for central venous catheter (CVC) presence at time of HOB and study site. Results: The analysis included 9,267 neonates, contributing 191,295 patient days and 470 HOB events, with an unadjusted IR of 2.46 per 1,000 patient days (Table 1). Of 477 infants born ≤750 g, 153 (30.1%) had a HOB with an IR of 13.3 (95% CI, 10.5–16.0) events per 1,000 patient days in the first 4 weeks after birth (Fig. 1). After adjusting for CVC presence and study site, infants ≤750 g had a higher HOB rate in the first 4 weeks of life (IRR, 7.45; 95% CI, 3.81–14.56) compared to infants ≥2,500 g. After 8 weeks of life, there was no difference in HOB rate in the 2 groups (IRR, 0.8, 95% CI, 0.3–2.7). Conclusions: Neonates born ≤750 g were at highest risk for HOB within the first 4 weeks after birth; however, risk for HOB was not consistent over time. Postnatal age should be considered in a neonatal HOB quality metric.

Abstract Background Unusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses. Methods Residual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus to estimate the magnitude reduction in transmission due to weather-related disruptions. Changes in contact rates and care-seeking were informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital visits. Results Disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16 to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3 to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in an early epidemic phase. Conclusion High-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. For SARS-CoV-2, this suggests that, even when SARS-CoV-2 spread is out of control, implementing short-term disruptions can prevent COVID-19 deaths.

Abstract Isolation of bacterial small colony variants (SCVs) from clinical specimens is not uncommon and can fundamentally change the outcome of the associated infections. Bacterial SCVs often emerge with their normal colony phenotype (NCV) co-isolates in the same sample. The basis of SCV emergence in vivo is not well understood in Gram-negative bacteria. In this study, we interrogated the causal genetic lesions of SCV growth in three pairs of NCV and SCV co-isolates of Escherichia coli, Citrobacter freundii, and Enterobacter hormaechei. We confirmed SCV emergence was attributed to limited genomic mutations: 4 single nucleotide variants in the E. coli SCV, 5 in C. freundii, and 8 in E. hormaechei. In addition, a 10.2 kb chromosomal segment containing 11 genes was deleted in the E. hormaechei SCV isolate. Each SCV had at least one coding change in a gene associated with bacterial oxidative respiration and another involved in iron capture. Chemical and genetic rescue confirmed defects in heme biosynthesis for E. coli and C. freundii and lipoic acid biosynthesis in E. hormaachei were responsible for the SCV phenotype. Prototrophic growth in all 3 SCV Enterobacteriaceae species was unaffected under anaerobic culture conditions in vitro, illustrating how SCVs may persist in vivo.

Background: Little is known about the impact of healthcare-associated respiratory syncytial virus (HA-RSV) in hospitalized children. To address this gap, we assessed the epidemiology and clinical impact associated with HA-RSV in a multiseason, multicenter study. Methods: During respiratory viral seasons 2016–2017, 2017–2018, and 2018–2019, we retrospectively identified HA-RSV cases in hospitalized children 72 hours after admission or within 48 hours of discharge in readmitted patients. Due to reduced availability of testing for non–SARS-CoV-2 viruses during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2019–2020 season was excluded. We initiated prospective HA-RSV surveillance during the 2020–2021 season and continued surveillance through November 2021 due to the unusual interseasonal RSV community outbreak. We determined demographic and clinical characteristics of HA-RSV cases and explored possible outcomes associated with RSV including transfer to the pediatric ICU and escalation of respiratory support from day −2 to day +4 (day 0 was the day of RSV detection). We explored the timeframe of day −2 to day +4 because events during this timeframe could be attributed to RSV infection. Respiratory support escalation was defined as change from room air to supplemental oxygen, increase in fraction of inspired oxzygen (FiO2) on same respiratory support modality, or change from noninvasive to invasive support. Results: Were identified 86 HA-RSV cases: 20 (23.3%) from 2016–2017, 26 (30.2%) from 2017–2018, 34 (39.5%) from 2018–2019, and 6 (7%) from October 2020–November 2021. HA-RSV was diagnosed a median of 14 days (IQR, 8–45) after admission. Moreover, 29 (33.7%), 31 (36.0%), and 26 (30.2%) cases were aged 60 months during these, respective seasons. Also, 33 (38.4%) had >3 comorbid conditions, most commonly gastrointestinal (n = 33, 38.4%), respiratory (n = 28, 32.6%), and/or congenital–genetic disorders (n = 28, 32.6%). However, 9 (10.5%) had no comorbid conditions. From day −2 to day +4, 15 children (17.4%) were transferred to the PICU and 38 (49.3%) of 77 evaluable cases required respiratory support escalation, most commonly supplemental oxygen delivered by nasal cannula (n = 15, 19.5%). Furthermore, 11 patients (14.3%) required invasive support. Conclusions: HA-RSV was associated with use of healthcare resources, including the need for respiratory support escalation and/or transfer to intensive care. From October 2020 to November 2021, lower numbers of HA-RSV were observed. The reasons for this are unknown, but potentially occurred in parallel to markedly reduced RSV in the community and may have resulted from visitor restrictions, which included no siblings and/or universal masking by hospital staff and visitors.

COVID-19 disease is less common in children than adults, but the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 infections are missed through symptom-driven testing is not well understood. In this study, the authors show that approximately 1% of children seeking care for reasons other than COVID-19 at a Seattle hospital in March/April 2020 were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2.

Introduction Influenza epidemics and pandemics cause significant morbidity and mortality. An effective response to a potential pandemic requires the infrastructure to rapidly detect, characterise, and potentially contain new and emerging influenza strains at both an individual and population level. The objective of this study is to use data gathered simultaneously from community and hospital sites to develop a model of how influenza enters and spreads in a population.Methods and analysis Starting in the 2018–2019 season, we have been enrolling individuals with acute respiratory illness from community sites throughout the Seattle metropolitan area, including clinics, childcare facilities, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, workplaces, college campuses and homeless shelters. At these sites, we collect clinical data and mid-nasal swabs from individuals with at least two acute respiratory symptoms. Additionally, we collect residual nasal swabs and data from individuals who seek care for respiratory symptoms at four regional hospitals. Samples are tested using a multiplex molecular assay, and influenza whole genome sequencing is performed for samples with influenza detected. Geospatial mapping and computational modelling platforms are in development to characterise the regional spread of influenza and other respiratory pathogens.Ethics and dissemination The study was approved by the University of Washington’s Institutional Review Board (STUDY00006181). Results will be disseminated through talks at conferences, peer-reviewed publications and on the study website (www.seattleflu.org).

Necrobiosis lipoidica diabeticorum (NLD) is a chronic granulomatous dermatitis generally involving the anterior aspect of the shin, that arises in 0.3–1.2% of patients with diabetes mellitus (1). The lesions are often yellow or brown with telangiectatic plaque, a central area of atrophy and raised violaceous borders (2). Similar to other conditions with a high risk of scarring including burns, stasis ulcers and lupus vulgaris, NLD provides a favourable environment for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) formation (3). A number of cases of SCC from NLD have been recorded (3, 4, 5); however, our search of the literature failed to identify any cases of either metastatic or fatal SCC which developed within an area of NLD. This article describes a patient with established type 1 diabetes mellitus who died from SCC which developed from an area of NLD present for over 10 years. Currently, there are a paucity of recommendations in the medical literature for screening people with NLD for the early diagnosis of SCC. We believe that clinicians should regard non-healing ulcers in the setting of NLD with a high index of clinical suspicion for SCC, and an early biopsy of such lesions should be recommended.

Abstract Background National guidance on preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the UK recommends low-intensity lifestyle interventions for individuals with intermediate categories of hyperglycaemia defined in terms of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or ‘at-risk’ levels of HbA1c. In a recent systematic review of economic evaluations of such interventions, most studies had evaluated intensive trial-based lifestyle programmes in participants with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). This study examines the costs and effects of different intensity lifestyle programmes and metformin in participants with different categories of intermediate hyperglycaemia. Methods We developed a decision tree and Markov model (50-year horizon) to compare four approaches, namely (1) a low-intensity lifestyle programme based on current NICE guidance, (2) a high-intensity lifestyle programme based on the US Diabetes Prevention Program, (3) metformin, and (4) no intervention, modelled for three different types of intermediate hyperglycaemia (IFG, IGT and HbA1c). A health system perspective was adopted and incremental analysis undertaken at an individual and population-wide level, taking England as a case study. Results Low-intensity lifestyle programmes were the most cost-effective (£44/QALY, £195/QALY and £186/QALY compared to no intervention in IGT, IFG and HbA1c, respectively). Intensive lifestyle interventions were also cost-effective compared to no intervention (£2775/QALY, £6820/QALY and £7376/QALY, respectively, in IGT, IFG and HbA1c). Metformin was cost-effective relative to no intervention (£5224/QALY, £6842/QALY and £372/QALY in IGT, IFG and HbA1c, respectively), but was only cost-effective relative to other treatments in participants identified with HbA1c. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY, low- and high-intensity lifestyle programmes were cost-effective 98%, 99% and 98% and 81%, 81% and 71% of the time in IGT, IFG and HbA1c, respectively. An England-wide programme for 50–59 year olds could reduce T2DM incidence by

Objective We examined whether it is cost-effective to measure free thyroxine (FT4) in addition to thyrotropin (thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH)) on all requests for thyroid function tests from primary care on adult patients.Background Hypopituitarism occurs in about 4 people per 100 000 per year. Loss of thyrotropin (TSH) secretion may lead to secondary hypothyroidism with a low TSH and low FT4, and this pattern may help to diagnose hypopituitarism that might otherwise be missed.Design Markov model simulation.Primary outcome measure Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), the ratio of cost in pounds to benefit in quality-adjusted life years of this strategy.Results The ICER for this strategy was £71 437. Factors with a large influence on the ICER were the utilities of the treated hypopituitary state, the likelihood of going to the general practitioner (GP) and of the GP recognising a hypopituitary patient. The ICER would be below £20 000 at a cost to the user of an FT4 measurement of £0.61.Conclusion With FT4 measurements at their present cost to the user, routine inclusion of FT4 in a thyroid hormone profile is not cost-effective.

ABSTRACT Clinical isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) are known to differ from those associated with non-CF hosts by colony morphology, drug susceptibility patterns, and genomic hypermutability. Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates from CF patients have long been recognized for their overall reduced rate of antimicrobial susceptibility, but their intraclonal MIC heterogeneity has long been overlooked. Using two distinct cohorts of clinical strains (n = 224 from 56 CF patients, n = 130 from 68 non-CF patients) isolated in 2013, we demonstrated profound Etest MIC heterogeneity in CF P. aeruginosa isolates in comparison to non-CF P. aeruginosa isolates. On the basis of whole-genome sequencing of 19 CF P. aeruginosa isolates from 9 patients with heterogeneous MICs, the core genome phylogenetic tree confirmed the within-patient CF P. aeruginosa clonal lineage along with considerable coding sequence variability. No extrachromosomal DNA elements or previously characterized antibiotic resistance mutations could account for the wide divergence in antimicrobial MICs between P. aeruginosa coisolates, though many heterogeneous mutations in efflux and porin genes and their regulators were present. A unique OprD sequence was conserved among the majority of isolates of CF P. aeruginosa analyzed, suggesting a pseudomonal response to selective pressure that is common to the isolates. Genomic sequence data also suggested that CF pseudomonal hypermutability was not entirely due to mutations in mutL, mutS, and uvr. We conclude that the net effect of hundreds of adaptive mutations, both shared between clonally related isolate pairs and unshared, accounts for their highly heterogeneous MIC variances. We hypothesize that this heterogeneity is indicative of the pseudomonal syntrophic-like lifestyle under conditions of being “locked” inside a host focal airway environment for prolonged periods. IMPORTANCE Patients with cystic fibrosis endure “chronic focal infections” with a variety of microorganisms. One microorganism, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, adapts to the host and develops resistance to a wide range of antimicrobials. Interestingly, as the infection progresses, multiple isogenic strains of P. aeruginosa emerge and coexist within the airways of these patients. Despite a common parental origin, the multiple strains of P. aeruginosa develop vastly different susceptibility patterns to actively used antimicrobial agents—a phenomenon we define as “heterogeneous MICs.” By sequencing pairs of P. aeruginosa isolates displaying heterogeneous MICs, we observed widespread isogenic gene lesions in drug transporters, DNA mismatch repair machinery, and many other structural or cellular functions. Coupled with the heterogeneous MICs, these genetic lesions demonstrated a symbiotic response to host selection and suggested evolution of a multicellular syntrophic bacterial lifestyle. Current laboratory standard interpretive criteria do not address the emergence of heterogeneous growth and susceptibilities in vitro with treatment implications.