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International audience; We use 148 airborne vertical profiles of CO2 for frontal cases from the summer 2016 Atmospheric Carbon and Transport—America (ACT America) campaign to evaluate the skill of 10 global CO2 in situ inversion models from the version 7 Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO 2) Model Intercomparison Project (MIP). Model errors (model posterior—observed CO2 dry air mole fractions) were categorized by region (Mid Atlantic, Midwest, and South), frontal sector (warm or cold), and transport model (predominantly Tracer Model 5 (TM5) and Goddard Earth Observing System—Chemistry [GEOS Chem]). All inversions assimilated the same CO2 observations. Overall, the median inversion profiles reproduce the general structures of the observations (enhanced/depleted low level CO2 in warm/cold sectors), but 1) they underestimate the magnitude of the warm/cold sector mole fraction difference, and 2) the spread among individual inversions can be quite large (>5 ppm). Uniquely in the Mid Atlantic, inversion biases segregated according to atmospheric transport model, where TM5 inversions biases were -3 to -4 ppm in warm sectors, while those of GEOS Chem were +2 to +3 ppm in cold sectors. The large spread among the mean posterior CO2 profiles is not explained by the different atmospheric transport models. These results show that the inversion systems themselves are the dominant cause of this spread, and that the aircraft campaign data are clearly able to identify these large biases. Future controlled experiments should identify which inversions best reproduce mid latitude CO2 mole fractions, and how inversion system components are linked to system performance.

Geoengineering the climate by increasing the Earth's reflectivity has been suggested. In this Perspective, the detectability of various methods is investigated. Although satellite observations can detect large changes in albedo, smaller increases caused by some methods of geoengineering are indistinguishable from natural variability. This raises the question of how such schemes would be managed if their impacts can not be quantified.

Quantifying oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake by monitoring interior dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations is complicated by the influence of natural variability. The "eMLR method" aims to address this issue by using empirical regression fits of the data instead of the data themselves, inferring the change in anthropogenic carbon in time by difference between predictions generated by the regressions at each time. The advantages of the method are that it provides in principle a means to filter out natural variability, which theoretically becomes the regression residuals, and a way to deal with sparsely and unevenly distributed data. The degree to which these advantages are realized in practice is unclear, however. The ability of the eMLR method to recover the anthropogenic carbon signal is tested here using a global circulation and biogeochemistry model in which the true signal is known. Results show that regression model selection is particularly important when the observational network changes in time. When the observational network is fixed, the likelihood that co-located systematic misfits between the empirical model and the underlying, yet unknown, true model cancel is greater, improving eMLR results. Changing the observational network modifies how the spatio-temporal variance pattern is captured by the respective datasets, resulting in empirical models that are dynamically or regionally inconsistent, leading to systematic errors. In consequence, the use of regression formulae that change in time to represent systematically best-fit models at all times does not guarantee the best estimates of anthropogenic carbon change if the spatial distributions of the stations emphasize hydrographic features differently in time. Other factors, such as a balanced and representative station coverage, vertical continuity of the regression formulae consistent with the hydrographic context and resiliency of the spatial distribution of the residual field can be used to help guide model selection. The characteristic spatial scales of the modes of inter-annual to decadal variability in relation to the size of the North Atlantic, in concert with the station coverage available, place practical limits on the ability of eMLR to fully account for natural variability. Due to its statistical nature, eMLR only efficiently removes the natural variability whose spatial scales are smaller than the system analyzed.

We develop an approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using inventory-based information over North America (NA) for a recent 7-year period (ca. 2000–2006). The approach notably retains information on the spatial distribution of NEE, or the vertical exchange between land and atmosphere of all non-fossil fuel sources and sinks of CO2, while accounting for lateral transfers of forest and crop products as well as their eventual emissions. The total NEE estimate of a � 327 ± 252 TgC yr � 1 sink for NA was driven primarily by CO2 uptake in the Forest Lands sector (� 248 TgC yr � 1 ), largely in the Northwest and Southeast regions of the US, and in the Crop Lands sector (� 297 TgC yr � 1 ), predominantly in the Midwest US states. These sinks are counteracted by the carbon source estimated for the Other Lands sector (+218 TgC yr � 1 ), where much of the forest and crop products are assumed to be returned to the atmosphere (through livestock and human consumption). The ecosystems of Mexico are estimated to be a small net source (+18 TgC yr � 1 ) due to land use change between 1993 and 2002. We compare these inventorybased estimates with results from a suite of terrestrial biosphere and atmospheric inversion models, where the mean continental-scale NEE estimate for each ensemble is � 511 TgC yr � 1 and � 931 TgC yr � 1 , respectively. In the modeling approaches, all sectors, including Other Lands, were generally estimated to be a carbon sink, driven in part by assumed CO2 fertilization and/or lack of consideration of carbon sources from disturbances and product emissions. Additional fluxes not measured by the inventories, although highly uncertain, could add an additional � 239 TgC yr � 1 to the inventory-based NA sink estimate, thus suggesting some convergence with the modeling approaches.

We show here an updated estimate of the net land carbon sink (NLS) as a function of time from 1960 to 2007 calculated from the difference between fossil fuel emissions, the observed atmospheric growth rate, and the ocean uptake obtained by recent ocean model simulations forced with reanalysis wind stress and heat and water fluxes. Except for interannual variability, the net land carbon sink appears to have been relatively constant at a mean value of −0.27 Pg C yr−1 between 1960 and 1988, at which time it increased abruptly by −0.88 (−0.77 to −1.04) Pg C yr−1 to a new relatively constant mean of −1.15 Pg C yr−1 between 1989 and 2003/7 (the sign convention is negative out of the atmosphere). This result is detectable at the 99% level using a t-test. The land use source (LU) is relatively constant over this entire time interval. While the LU estimate is highly uncertain, this does imply that most of the change in the net land carbon sink must be due to an abrupt increase in the land sink, LS = NLS – LU, in response to some as yet unknown combination of biogeochemical and climate forcing. A regional synthesis and assessment of the land carbon sources and sinks over the post 1988/1989 period reveals broad agreement that the Northern Hemisphere land is a major sink of atmospheric CO2, but there remain major discrepancies with regard to the sign and magnitude of the net flux to and from tropical land., Biogeosciences, 7 (8), ISSN:1726-4170

We present an estimate of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 in Europe for the years 2001-2007. It is derived with a data assimilation that uses a large set of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction observations (∼70 000) to guide relatively simple descriptions of terrestrial and oceanic net exchange, while fossil fuel and fire emissions are prescribed. Weekly terrestrial sources and sinks are optimized (i.e., a flux inversion) for a set of 18 large ecosystems across Europe in which prescribed climate, weather, and surface characteristics introduce finer scale gradients. We find that the terrestrial biosphere in Europe absorbed a net average of -165 Tg C yr-1 over the period considered. This uptake is predominantly in non-EU countries, and is found in the northern coniferous (-94 Tg C yr-1) and mixed forests (-30 Tg C yr-1) as well as the forest/field complexes of eastern Europe (-85 Tg C yr-1). An optimistic uncertainty estimate derived using three biosphere models suggests the uptake to be in a range of -122 to -258 Tg C yr-1, while a more conservative estimate derived from the a-posteriori covariance estimates is -165±437 Tg C yr-1. Note, however, that uncertainties are hard to estimate given the nature of the system and are likely to be significantly larger than this. Interannual variability in NEE includes a reduction in uptake due to the 2003 drought followed by 3 years of more than average uptake. The largest anomaly of NEE occurred in 2005 concurrent with increased seasonal cycles of observed CO2. We speculate these changes to result from the strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in 2005 that lead to favorable summer growth conditions, and altered horizontal and vertical mixing in the atmosphere. All our results are available through http://www.carbontracker.eu. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Population models in ecology are rarely validated by comparing their pre- dictions to long-term observations of changes in population size. We have used a variety of analytical tools to examine a 45-year time series of annual censuses of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) in the Gran Paradiso National Park in northwestern Italy. This ibex population grew from about 3300 to almost 5000 individuals in the 1980s during a decade of anom- alously mild winters, and then began to decline in the 1990s. By 1997, the population size had returned to previous levels. Adult survival apparently increased and adult sex ratio may have changed to slightly favor males during the increase in population density. Yearly changes in total population were correlated with seasonal average snow depth and population density over the 39 years for which climate data were available. Our results show that the ibex population size was limited by both density dependence and deep snow. A model based on these factors fit to the first 19 years of data was used to forecast subsequent changes in total population based on initial population size and yearly snow depth. The model was able to predict the increase and subsequent decline in total population size over the final 20 years of the study but failed to reproduce population levels after the eruption. Our results suggest that the 1980s episode of population growth was primarily driven by increased adult survival, rather than increased recruitment.

A blind comparison with data is made with a model for the coherence time of broadband sound (133 Hz, 17-Hz bandwidth) at 3709 km. Coherence time is limited by changes in the ocean because the acoustic instruments are fixed to the Earth on the bottom of the sea with time bases maintained by atomic clocks. Although the modeled coherence time depends a bit on the difficult problem of correctly modeling relative signal-to-noise ratios, normalized correlation coefficients of the broadband signals for the data (model) are 0.90 (0.83), 0.72 (0.59), and 0.51 (0.36) at lags of 2, 4.1, and 6.2 min, respectively. In all these cases, observed coherence times are a bit longer than modeled. The temporal evolution of the model is based on the linear dispersion relation for internal waves. Acoustic propagation is modeled with the parabolic approximation and the sound-speed insensitive operator.

Bathythermometric observations from standard National Oceanographic Data Center data sets are used to show evidence of Rossby waves in the northeast Pacific Ocean following several E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation events between 1968 and 1991. Observations of a westward propagating warm anomaly following the 1982-1983 El Nino are consistent with evidence from ocean models and satellite observations that coastally trapped Kelvin waves of tropical origin excite Rossby waves in the northeast Pacific. Observed Rossby wave phase speeds are about 1.6 cm s -1 higher than those predicted by linear shallow-water theory. At midlatitudes, observed waves are more than 1.5 times faster than theory. Phase speeds of Rossby waves in a 1/8° resolution nonlinear primitive equation model exceed standard linear theory, but only by about 0.1 cm s -1 , despite the fact that the model should replicate mechanisms that have recently been proposed to explain the observed anomalously fast phase speeds.

Nature Climate Change 4, 93–98 (2014); published online 29 January 2014; corrected after print 29 January 2014 In the version of this Perspective originally published, the final phrase of the abstract should have read 'are ∼0.2, which is larger than might be expected from some model simulations.' Additionally, the affiliation number for Norman Loeb was missing in the address list.