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The biomarker development field within molecular medicine remains limited by the methods that are available for building predictive models. We developed an efficient method for conservatively estimating confidence intervals for the cross validation-derived prediction errors of biomarker models. This new method was investigated for its ability to improve the capacity of our previously developed method, StaVarSel, for selecting stable biomarkers. Compared with the standard cross validation method, StaVarSel markedly improved the estimated generalisable predictive capacity of serum miRNA biomarkers for the detection of disease states that are at increased risk of progressing to oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The incorporation of our new method for conservatively estimating confidence intervals into StaVarSel resulted in the selection of less complex models with increased stability and improved or similar predictive capacities. The methods developed in this study have the potential to improve progress from biomarker discovery to biomarker driven translational research.

BACKGROUND: Esophageal and gastroesophageal junctional (GEJ) adenocarcinoma is one of the most fatal cancers and has the fastest rising incidence rate of all cancers. Identification of biomarkers is needed to tailor treatments to each patient's tumor biology and prognosis. METHODS: Gene expression profiling was performed in a test cohort of 80 chemoradiotherapy (CRTx) naïve patients with external validation in a separate cohort of 62 CRTx naïve patients and 169 patients with advanced stage disease treated with CRTx. RESULTS: As a novel prognostic biomarker after external validation CD151 showed promise. Patients exhibiting high levels of CD151 (=median) had a longer median overall survival than patients with low CD151 tumor levels (median not reached vs. 30.9 months; p = 0.01). This effect persisted in a multivariable Cox regression model with adjustment for tumor stage [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.33; 95 confidence interval (CI) 0.14 0.78; p = 0.01] and was further corroborated through immunohistochemical analysis (aHR 0.22; 95 CI 0.08 0.59; p = 0.003). This effect was not found in the separate cohort of CRTx exposed patients. CONCLUSION: Tumoral expression levels of CD151 may provide independent prognostic information not gained by conventional staging of patients with esophageal and GEJ adenocarcinoma treated by esophagectomy alone.

Barrett's esophagus (BE), a common condition, is the only known precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). There is uncertainty about the best way to manage BE as most people with BE never develop EAC and most patients diagnosed with EAC have no preceding diagnosis of BE. Moreover, there have been recent advances in knowledge and practice about the management of BE and early EAC. To aid clinical decision making in this rapidly moving field, Cancer Council Australia convened an expert working party to identify pertinent clinical questions. The questions covered a wide range of topics including endoscopic and histological definitions of BE and early EAC; prevalence, incidence, natural history, and risk factors for BE; and methods for managing BE and early EAC. The latter considered modification of lifestyle factors; screening and surveillance strategies; and medical, endoscopic, and surgical interventions. To answer each question, the working party systematically reviewed the literature and developed a set of recommendations through consensus. Evidence underpinning each recommendation was rated according to quality and applicability.

Background Alterations in gastrointestinal, pancreatic, and adipose hormone levels may have a greater role in weight loss than initially appreciated. The laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) operation is now the most frequently performed bariatric operation in many countries, but there are relatively few data regarding its molecular effects. We sought to characterize the effect of LSG on fasting plasma levels of selected hormones and on non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA), and to compare these to levels in non-obese control individuals. Materials and Methods The levels of nine plasma hormones were measured using a multiplex bead-based assay at baseline and at 3 months after operation in 11 obese patients undergoing LSG. NEFA levels were also measured. The levels were compared to those for 22 age- and sex-matched non-obese individuals. Results At baseline, obese patients showed significantly higher expression of C-peptide, insulin, and leptin and significantly lower ghrelin, glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP), and resistin compared to non-obese controls (p