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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is thought to influence boreal winter surface conditions over Asia and around the North Atlantic. Confirming if these responses are robust is complicated by the QBO having multiple pathways to influence surface conditions as well as internal variability. The reanalysis record suggests that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the polar vortex that can elicit persistent surface impacts, are more frequent during easterly QBO (EQBO). Hence, this modulated frequency of SSWs may account for some of the EQBO surface responses. However, many climate models do not reproduce this QBO–SSW relationship, perhaps because it is noise or because the model QBOs are deficient. We circumvent these issues by using an ensemble of fixed boundary condition branched simulations in which a realistic EQBO is prescribed in control simulations previously devoid of a QBO, allowing us to isolate the transient atmospheric response to EQBO. Imposing EQBO accelerates the tropical upper-tropospheric wind, shifts the subtropical jet poleward, and attenuates the polar vortex. Interestingly, the latter is not entirely dependent on the statistically significant increase in SSW frequency due to EQBO. Corroborating observations, EQBO is associated with warmer surface temperatures over Asia and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions. We then subsample the branched/control simulations based on which EQBO members have SSWs. The negative NAO response is primarily associated with more frequent SSWs, while the Asia warming develops irrespective of SSWs. These results have implications for wintertime predictability and clarify the pairing of particular QBO teleconnections with certain surface impacts. Significance Statement: The QBO is one of the few parts of the Earth system that is predictable months in advance and that also elicits global effects on surface temperature, circulation, and precipitation. Unfortunately, climate models and operational forecast systems do not simulate the QBO well and it is not always clear how robust the global impacts of the QBO are. Here, we impose the QBO in idealized model simulations, which modulates wintertime surface temperature and precipitation over Asia, the North Atlantic, Europe, and Africa in a manner consistent with observations. This work substantiates the importance of climate and forecast models properly simulating the QBO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant pattern of Northern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability is the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which in wintertime represents the coupling of the stratospheric and tropospheric circulations. The internal variability associated with the NAM has been shown to give rise to substantial uncertainty in climate projections of regional surface air temperatures (SATs), but it's unclear how much of this variability arises from stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes. Here, using three large‐ensemble coupled climate model simulations from 1850 to 2100 with varying fidelity of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes, we demonstrate that regional SAT variability across timescales is amplified when the tropospheric NAM is coupled to the stratospheric NAM. Moreover, models that lack adequate simulation of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes may not capture the magnitude of uncertainty in near‐term SAT projections associated with this coupling. Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale atmospheric circulation variability drives substantial variation in regional surface air temperatures (SATs), so that even on 30–40 year timescales local cooling trends are possible even as global‐mean temperatures increase. We provide evidence that when the stratospheric mean flow is coupled to the tropospheric mean flow, the decadal variability of SATs is amplified in some regions. Some models do not represent well the observed coupling of the stratosphere to the troposphere, and these models may underestimate decadal variability associated with this coupling. Key Points: The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) exhibits decadal variability that can accelerate or slow the rate of anthropogenic regional surface warmingAmplified decadal variability of extratropical surface temperatures occurs when the NAM is coupled from the stratosphere to the troposphereModels that fail to adequately capture vertical coupling may underestimate the magnitude of decadal variations in surface air temperatures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research indicates that sexual and physical assault generate negative emotions of shame and anger, undermine self-esteem, and increase interpersonal sensitivity. This in turn may bring about behavioral changes and cognitive bias, which may adversely affect victims' social interactions. The purpose of this study was to examine whether sexual or physical assault before age 18 is associated with a heightened sense of being treated unfairly in early adulthood. A nationally representative sample of young adults age 18–21 (N = 2,770; 49% female) self-reported on whether they had ever been sexually or physically assaulted, whether it first occurred in childhood or adolescence, and how frequently they are treated unfairly in their everyday interactions with other people, as measured by the Everyday Discrimination Scale (EDS). Multivariate regression results indicated that child (≤age 12) physical assault and adolescent-onset (age 13–17) physical assault were associated with higher scores on the EDS for both men and women. Child sexual assault was associated with the EDS for men; adolescent-onset sexual assault was associated with the EDS for women. Violence as a minor was associated with each item of the EDS (e.g., treated with less respect, less courtesy, other people act of afraid of you, etc.). Violence victims attributed their elevated levels of perceived unfair treatment to their gender, race, age, and aspects of their physical appearance. Overall, the results suggest a mechanism through which a history of sexual and physical assault can affect social interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mainstream and popular science media are rife with misunderstandings about what a "polar vortex" is. The term most aptly describes the stratospheric polar vortex, a single feature dominating the cool‐season circulation from ∼15–50 km. Regional jet stream variations dominate the tropospheric circulation, which is not well‐described as a polar vortex; indeed, there is no single consistent definition of a tropospheric polar vortex in the literature. Stratospheric polar vortex disturbances profoundly influence extreme weather events, including cold air outbreaks (CAOs). How the stratospheric polar vortex affects tropospheric jets, whose local excursions drive CAOs, is not fully understood. Public‐facing parts of publications describing research on this topic are not always clear about how the "polar vortex" is defined; greater clarity could improve communications both within the community and with non‐specialist audiences. Plain Language Summary: What is a "polar vortex"? The atmospheric science community most commonly uses this term to describe the stratospheric polar vortex, a band of winds extending from about 15–50 km altitude that flows around the pole of each hemisphere during their respective fall through spring seasons. However, the term "polar vortex" has been used in mainstream media and popular science platforms to instead describe local variations in the upper tropospheric jet streams (winds that blow most strongly between about 8 and 13 km altitude) and even individual extreme cold weather events. We argue that the term should be used only in reference to the stratospheric polar vortex, which is a single feature that predominantly controls dynamical and chemical variability in the winter polar stratosphere. The stratospheric polar vortex is related to but distinct from more regional jet stream excursions and associated weather extremes; further study is needed to fully understand these relationships. Key Points: The stratospheric polar vortex is a well‐defined feature dominating the cool‐season circulation in each hemisphere from ∼15–50 km altitudeThe tropospheric circulation does not constitute a single coherent structure and is most aptly described by regional jet stream variationsAccuracy in defining and describing the "polar vortex" and its effects is key to improving understanding by non‐specialist audiences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude, stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortices in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal, ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models, and fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two recent occurrences in February 2018 and January 2019 of a dynamic split in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex are compared in terms of their evolution and predictability. The 2018 split vortex was associated with primarily wavenumber‐2 wave forcing that was not well predicted more than 7–10 days ahead of time, and was followed by persistent coupling to the surface with strong weather impacts. In 2019 the vortex was first displaced by slow wavenumber‐1 amplification into the stratosphere, which was predictable at longer lead times and then split; the surface impacts following the event were weaker. Here we examine the role of large‐scale climate influences, such as the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Quasi‐biennial Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, on the wave forcing, surface impacts and predictability of these two events. Linkages between the forecast error in the stratospheric polar vortex winds with the forecast error in the Quasi‐biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation are examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric polar vortex forms each winter 10-50 km above the surface over the pole, and variations in its strength and position are known to influence the weather we experience. During winter 2018-2019, the Arctic polar vortex was highly variable - with both a sudden stratospheric warming and a strong vortex event. The strong recovery of the SPV following the SSW is dynamically consistent with the prolonged period of easterly winds - these effectively "shield" the mid-to-upper stratosphere from tropospheric planetary wave activity, which can only propagate into westerly flow, allowing the vortex to be undisturbed and redevelop through radiative cooling. Vertical dashed lines indicate (from left to right) the vortex spin-up, the major SSW, the peak of the strong vortex event and the final warming. gl. [Extracted from the article]

Each spring, the climatological westerly winds of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex turn easterly as the stratospheric equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient relaxes. The timing of this event is dictated both by the annual return of sunlight to the pole and by dynamical influences from the troposphere. Here we consider the predictability of NH final stratospheric warmings in multimodel hindcasts from the Subseasonal to Seasonal project database. We evaluate how well the Subseasonal to Seasonal prediction systems perform in capturing the timing of final warmings. We compare the predictability of early warmings (which are more strongly driven by wave forcing) and late warmings and find that late warmings are more skillfully predicted at longer lead times. Finally, we find significantly increased predictive skill of NH near‐surface temperature anomalies at Weeks 3–4 lead times following only early final warmings. Key Points: Final stratospheric warmings that occur in early spring are less predictable than those that occur in late springThe interannual variability in the timing of the final warming is well predicted more than 4 weeks in advanceEarly final warmings provide a source of surface climate predictive skill at Weeks 3–4 in Northern Hemisphere spring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to determine whether the use of the word, Quiet increases veterinary emergency service triage traffic or hospital admissions. Days were randomized to be a control or test phrase day. On control days, the phrase, Have a nice day! was announced to the entire hospital staff. On test days, the phrase, Have a quiet day! was announced. No statistical difference in mean number of the patients presenting to the emergency service for triage (test phrase 30.1 ± 10.4 cases vs control phrase 30.3 cases ± 10.5, p = 0.91) or hospital admissions (test phrase 3.5 ± 1.9 cases vs control phrase 4.3 ± 2.4 cases, p = 0.13) was found for 24-h following phrase utterance. No statistical difference in mean number of patients presenting to the emergency service for triage (test phrase 2.7 ± 1.4 cases vs control phrase 2.6 ± 1.9 cases, p = 0.84) or hospital admissions (test phrase 0.3 ± 0.5 cases vs control phrase 0.5 ± 0.8 cases, p = 0.08) was found in the 2-h window immediately following phrase announcement. Despite popular myth, using the word, Quiet does not increase veterinary emergency service triage traffic or hospital admissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) on the atmosphere and surface climate depend on when and where the sulfate aerosol precursors are injected, as well as on how much surface cooling is to be achieved. We use a set of CESM2(WACCM6) SAI simulations achieving three different levels of global mean surface cooling and demonstrate that unlike some direct surface climate impacts driven by the reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols, the SAI‐induced changes in the high latitude circulation and ozone are more complex and could be non‐linear. This manifests in our simulations by disproportionally larger Antarctic springtime ozone loss, significantly larger intra‐ensemble spread of the Arctic stratospheric jet and ozone responses, and non‐linear impacts on the extratropical modes of surface climate variability under the strongest‐cooling SAI scenario compared to the weakest one. These potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI. Plain Language Summary: The injection of reflective aerosols, or their precursors, into the lower stratosphere (Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, SAI) has been proposed as a temporary measure to offset some of the adverse impacts of climate change whilst atmospheric concentrations of greenhouses are being stabilized and, ultimately, reduced. The impacts of SAI on the atmosphere and surface climate would depend on when and where the sulfate aerosol precursors are injected, as well as on how much surface cooling is to be achieved. Here we analyze SAI impacts on stratospheric climate and ozone in a set of Earth system model simulations under varying magnitudes of the SAI‐induced global mean cooling. We demonstrate that unlike some of the direct surface climate impacts from the reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols, the SAI‐induced changes in stratospheric circulation, chemistry and climate are more complex, with the model simulations pointing toward more non‐linear behavior of the high latitude circulation and ozone under higher SAI scenarios. These potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI. Key Points: Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) depend on how much surface cooling is to be achievedHigh latitude circulation, ozone and modes of extratropical variability can vary non‐linearly with the SAI‐induced global surface coolingThese potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various criteria exist for determining the occurrence of a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), but the most common is based on the reversal of the climatological westerly zonal-mean zonal winds at 60° latitude and 10 hPa in the winter stratosphere. This definition was established at a time when observations of the stratosphere were sparse. Given greater access to data in the satellite era, a systematic analysis of the optimal parameters of latitude, altitude, and threshold for the wind reversal is now possible. Here, the frequency of SSWs, the strength of the wave forcing associated with the events, changes in stratospheric temperature and zonal winds, and surface impacts are examined as a function of the stratospheric wind reversal parameters. The results provide a methodical assessment of how to best define a standard metric for major SSWs. While the continuum nature of stratospheric variability makes it difficult to identify a decisively optimal threshold, there is a relatively narrow envelope of thresholds that work well—and the original focus at 60° latitude and 10 hPa lies within this window. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major, sudden midwinter stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere are associated with a complete reversal of the climatological westerly winds (i.e., the polar vortex). These extreme events can have substantial impacts on winter surface climate, including increased frequency of cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia and anomalous warming over Greenland and eastern Canada. Here we present a SSW Compendium (SSWC), a new database that documents the evolution of the stratosphere, troposphere, and surface conditions 60 days prior to and after SSWs for the period 1958-2014. The SSWC comprises data from six different reanalysis products: MERRA2 (1980-2014), JRA-55 (1958-2014), ERA-interim (1979-2014), ERA-40 (1958-2002), NOAA20CRv2c (1958-2011), and NCEP-NCAR I (1958-2014). Global gridded daily anomaly fields, full fields, and derived products are provided for each SSW event. The compendium will allow users to examine the structure and evolution of individual SSWs, and the variability among events and among reanalysis products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major mid-winter sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large and rapid temperature increases in the wintertime polar stratosphere associated with a complete reversal of the climatological westerly winds (i.e., the polar vortex). These extreme events can have substantial impacts on wintertime surface climate, such as cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia, or anomalous warming over Greenland. Here we present a SSW Compendium (SSWC), a new database that documents the evolution of the stratosphere, troposphere, and surface conditions 60 days prior to and after SSWs for the period 1958-2014. The SSWC comprises data from six different reanalysis products: MERRA2 (1980-2014), JRA-55 (1958-2014), ERA-interim (1979-2014), ERA-40 (1958-2002), NOAA20CRv2c (1958-2011), and NCEP-NCAR I (1958-2014). Global gridded daily anomaly fields, full fields, and derived products are provided for each SSW event. The compendium will allow users to examine the structure and evolution of individual SSWs, and the variability among events and among reanalysis products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics ('high-top') and models that do not ('low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large, rapid temperature rises in the winter polar stratosphere, occurring predominantly in the Northern Hemisphere. Major SSWs are also associated with a reversal of the climatological westerly zonal-mean zonal winds. Circulation anomalies associated with SSWs can descend into the troposphere with substantial surface weather impacts, such as wintertime extreme cold air outbreaks. After their discovery in 1952, SSWs were classified by the World Meteorological Organization. An examination of the literature suggests that a single, original reference for an exact definition of SSWs is elusive, but in many references a definition involves the reversal of the meridional temperature gradient and, for major warmings, the reversal of the zonal circulation poleward of 60° latitude at 10 hPa. Though versions of this definition are still commonly used to detect SSWs, the details of the definition and its implementation remain ambiguous. In addition, other SSW definitions have been used in the last few decades, resulting in inconsistent classification of SSW events. We seek to answer the questions: How has the SSW definition changed, and how sensitive is the detection of SSWs to the definition used? For what kind of analysis is a "standard" definition useful? We argue that a standard SSW definition is necessary for maintaining a consistent and robust metric to assess polar stratospheric wintertime variability in climate models and other statistical applications. To provide a basis for, and to encourage participation in, a communitywide discussion currently underway, we explore what criteria are important for a standard definition and propose possible ways to update the definition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The representation of the stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes is evaluated in the subseasonal Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12 (GEFSv12), hindcasts. The GEFSv12 hindcasts develop systematic stratospheric biases with increasing lead time, including a too strong boreal wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. In the tropical stratosphere, the GEFSv12 winds and temperatures associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) tend to decay with lead time such that they underestimate the observed amplitudes; consistently, the QBO-associated mean meridional circulation is too weak. The hindcasts predict extreme polar vortex events (including sudden stratospheric warmings and vortex intensifications) about 13–14 days in advance, and extreme lower-stratospheric eddy heat flux events about 6–10 days in advance. However, GEFSv12’s ability to predict these events is likely affected by its zonal-mean circulation biases, which increases the rates of false alarms and missed detections. Nevertheless, GEFSv12 shows stratosphere–troposphere coupling relationships that agree well with reanalysis and other subseasonal forecast systems. For instance, GEFSv12 reproduces reanalysis relationships between polar vortex strength and the Northern Annular Mode in the troposphere. It also exhibits enhanced weeks 3–5 prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation index when initialized during strong and weak polar vortex states compared to neutral states. Furthermore, GEFSv12 shows significant differences in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitudes and enhanced MJO predictive skill in week 4 during easterly versus westerly QBO phases, though these results are sensitive to the level used to define the QBO. Our results provide a baseline from which future GEFS updates may be measured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictability on seasonal time scales over the North Atlantic-Europe region is assessed using a seasonal prediction system based on an initialized version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). For this region, two of the dominant predictors on seasonal time scales are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. Multiple studies have shown a potential for improved North Atlantic predictability for either predictor. Their respective influences are however difficult to disentangle, since the stratosphere is itself impacted by ENSO. Both El Niño and SSW events correspond to a negative signature of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has a major influence on European weather. This study explores the impact on Europe by separating the stratospheric pathway of the El Niño teleconnection. In the seasonal prediction system, the evolution of El Niño events is well captured for lead times of up to 6 months, and stratospheric variability is reproduced with a realistic frequency of SSW events. The model reproduces the El Niño teleconnection through the stratosphere, involving a deepened Aleutian low connected to a warm anomaly in the northern winter stratosphere. The stratospheric anomaly signal then propagates downward into the troposphere through the winter season. Predictability of 500-hPa geopotential height over Europe at lead times of up to 4 months is shown to be increased only for El Niño events that exhibit SSW events, and it is shown that the characteristic negative NAO signal is only obtained for winters also containing major SSW events for both the model and the reanalysis data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Longitudinal data on non-Hispanic White children from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (N = 1,056) were used to examine whether the relationship between poverty (early childhood poverty, poverty persistence, and current poverty) and adolescent depressive symptoms (mea-sured by the Children's Depression Inventory and the Internalizing Index) can be explained by the mother's own childhood depression and family characteristics measured during the child's first year of life. Associations between poverty and depressive symptoms among adolescents were explained by mother's childhood depression and whether the adolescent had lived with both parents during the first year of life. The findings highlight the need for appropriate treatment of childhood depression so as to reduce the adverse consequences in adulthood and for the next generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. Co-morbidity between depression and anxiety disorders is common. In this study we define a quantitative measure of anxiety by summating four anxiety items from the SCAN interview in a large collection of major depression (MDD) cases to identify genes contributing to this complex phenotype. Methods. A total of 1522 MDD cases dichotomised according to those with at least one anxiety item scored ( n = 1080) and those without anxiety ( n = 442) were analysed, and also compared to 1588 healthy controls at a genome-wide level, to identify genes that may contribute to anxiety in MDD. Results. For the quantitative trait, suggestive evidence of association was detected for two SNPs, and for the dichotomous anxiety present/absent ratings for three SNPs at genome-wide level. In the genome-wide analysis of MDD cases with co-morbid anxiety and healthy controls, two SNPs attained P values of < 5 × 10-6. Analysing candidate genes, P values ≤ 0.0005 were found with three SNPs for the quantitative trait and three SNPs for the dichotomous trait. Conclusions. This study provides an initial genome-wide assessment of possible genetic contribution to anxiety in MDD. Although suggestive evidence of association was found for several SNPs, our findings suggest that there are no common variants strongly associated with anxious depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To identify prospectively measured risk factors of sexual assault (SA) among girls age 17 and younger. The data come from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and are derived from interviews with 1,087 girls, their primary caregivers, and household heads. The data were collected from the girls’ first year of life through their early twenties. Factors measured during childhood were used to predict whether the girls experienced a subsequent first sexual assault before the age of 18. Prospectively measured risk factors associated with subsequent child SA included the absence of one or both parents, maternal education less than college, family income below 400% of the federal poverty threshold, low caregiver warmth, child internalizing and externalizing behaviors, impulsivity, low achievement scores, and having been classified by their school as needing special education. Girls with behavioral health problems and learning challenges are at heightened risk for sexual assault. Research on behavioral health consequences of SA should control for preexisting SA risk factors to more accurately estimate the impact of child SA on subsequent behavioral health. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December-February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the implementation of EBSCO's Discovery Service (EDS) in the main Library of the University of North Alabama, Collier Library. The author talks about why the Collier Library chose EDS from other discovery tools like Summon and Primo and the selection criteria that influenced the choice which includes cost, ease of use, and database coverage. The article discusses the implementation, testing, and fine-tuning of the EDS discovery tool.

Objective--To determine whether dogs with head trauma have a greater incidence of seizures than the general canine patient population. Design--Retrospective case series. Animals--259 client-owned dogs. Procedures--Medical records of dogs evaluated for head trauma at The Ohio State University Veterinary Medical Center from 1999 to 2009 were reviewed. Data were collected regarding the cause of the head trauma, physical examination and neurologic examination findings, comorbidities, and the development of seizures during hospitalization. A telephone survey was conducted to question owners regarding the development of seizures after discharge. Relationships between the nature of the head trauma and the development of seizures were then examined. Results--3.5% of dogs with head trauma developed in-hospital seizures, and 6.8% of dogs with head trauma for which follow-up information was available developed seizures after hospital discharge, compared with an epilepsy rate of 1.4% in our hospital. Dogs that developed in-hospital seizures were significantly more likely to have been hit by a car or experienced acceleration-deceleration injury. Additionally, 10% of dogs with traumatic brain injury had in-hospital seizures. No visit or patient characteristics were significantly associated with the development of out-of-hospital seizures. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance--Dogs with head trauma may develop seizures at a greater rate than dogs in the general canine patient population. Particularly in the immediate to early posttraumatic period, clinicians should remain vigilant for the development of posttraumatic seizures and treat patients accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in weather and climate research have demonstrated the role of the stratosphere in the Earth system across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Stratospheric ozone loss has been identified as a key driver of Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation trends, affecting ocean currents and carbon uptake, sea ice, and possibly even the Antarctic ice sheets. Stratospheric variability has also been shown to affect short-term and seasonal forecasts, connecting the tropics and midlatitudes and guiding storm-track dynamics. The two-way interactions between the stratosphere and the Earth system have motivated the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate's (SPARC) activity on Modelling the Dynamics and Variability of the Stratosphere-Troposphere System (DynVar) to investigate the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on climate. This assessment will be made possible by two new multimodel datasets. First, roughly 10 models with a well-resolved stratosphere are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), providing the first multimodel ensemble of climate simulations coupled from the stratopause to the sea floor. Second, the Stratosphere Resolving Historical Forecast Project (Strat-HFP) of WCRP's Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program is forming a multimodel set of seasonal hind-casts with stratosphere-resolving models, revealing the impact of both stratospheric initial conditions and dynamics on intraseasonal prediction. The CMIP5 and Strat-HFP model datasets will offer an unprecedented opportunity to understand the role of the stratosphere in the natural and forced variability of the Earth system and to determine whether incorporating knowledge of the middle atmosphere improves seasonal forecasts and climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change experiments run on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-class numerical models consistently suggest that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to a poleward shift of the midlatitude jets and their associated eddy fluxes of heat and potential vorticity (PV). Experiments run on idealized models suggest that the poleward contraction of the jets can be traced to the effects of increased latent heating and thus locally enhanced warming in the tropical troposphere. Here the authors provide new insights into the dynamics of the circulation response to tropical tropospheric heating using transient experiments in an idealized general circulation model. It is argued that the response of the midlatitude jets to tropical heating is driven fundamentally by 1) the projection of the heating onto the meridional slope of the lower tropospheric isentropic surfaces, and 2) a diffusive model of the eddy fluxes of heat and PV. In the lower and middle troposphere, regions where the meridional slope of the isentropes (i.e., the baroclinicity) is increased are marked by anomalously poleward eddy fluxes of heat, and vice versa. Near the tropopause, regions where the meridional gradients in PV are increased are characterized by anomalously equatorward eddy fluxes of PV, and vice versa. The barotropic component of the response is shown to be closely approximated by the changes in the lower-level heat fluxes. As such, the changes in the eddy fluxes of momentum near the tropopause appear to be driven primarily by the changes in wave generation in the lower troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Suicidal behaviour can be conceptualised as a continuum from suicidal ideation, to suicidal attempts to completed suicide. In this study we identify genes contributing to suicidal behaviour in the depression study RADIANT. Methodology/Principal Findings: A quantitative suicidality score was composed of two items from the SCAN interview. In addition, the 251 depression cases with a history of serious suicide attempts were classified to form a discrete trait. The quantitative trait was correlated with younger onset of depression and number of episodes of depression, but not with gender. A genome-wide association study of 2,023 depression cases was performed to identify genes that may contribute to suicidal behaviour. Two Munich depression studies were used as replication cohorts to test the most strongly associated SNPs. No SNP was associated at genome-wide significance level. For the quantitative trait, evidence of association was detected at GFRA1, a receptor for the neurotrophin GDRA (p = 2e-06). For the discrete trait of suicide attempt, SNPs in KIAA1244 and RGS18 attained p-values of <5e-6. None of these SNPs showed evidence for replication in the additional cohorts tested. Candidate gene analysis provided some support for a polymorphism in NTRK2, which was previously associated with suicidality. Conclusions/Significance: This study provides a genome-wide assessment of possible genetic contribution to suicidal behaviour in depression but indicates a genetic architecture of multiple genes with small effects. Large cohorts will be required to dissect this further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective-To compare cardiac index (Cl), oxygen delivery index (D̊o2I), oxygen extraction ratio (O2ER), oxygen consumption index (V̊o2I), and systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI) in dogs with naturally occurring sepsis with published values for healthy dogs; compare those variables in dogs with sepsis that did or did not survive; and compare Cl and D̊o2I in dogs with sepsis with values in dogs with nonseptic systemic inflammatory response syndrome (nSIRS). Design-Cohort study. Animals-10 dogs with naturally occurring sepsis and 11 dogs with nSIIRS. Procedures-Over 24 hours, Cl, D̊o2I, O2ER, V̊o2I, and SVRI were measured 4 and 5 times in dogs with sepsis and with nSIRS, respectively. The mean values of each variable in each group were compared over time and between groups; data for dogs with sepsis that did or did not survive were also compared. Results-Mean D̊o2I was significantly decreased, and mean Cl, O2ER, V̊o2I, and SVRI were not significantly different in dogs with sepsis, compared with published values for healthy dogs. Mean Cl and D̊o2I in dogs with sepsis were significantly greater than valyes in dogs with nSIRS. Among dogs with sepsis that did or did not survive, values of Cl, D̊o2I, O2ER, V̊o2I, and SVRI did not differ significantly. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Compared with values in healthy dogs, only D̊o2I was significantly lower in dogs with sepsis. Values of Cl and D̊o2I were significantly higher in dogs with sepsis than in dogs with nSIRS, suggesting differing degrees of myocardial dysfunction between these groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The steady-state extratropical atmospheric response to thermal forcing is investigated in a simple atmospheric general circulation model. The thermal forcings qualitatively mimic three key aspects of anthropogenic climate change: warming in the tropical troposphere, cooling in the polar stratosphere, and warming at the polar surface. The principal novel findings are the following: 1) Warming in the tropical troposphere drives two robust responses in the model extratropical circulation: poleward shifts in the extratropical tropospheric storm tracks and a weakened stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation. The former result suggests heating in the tropical troposphere plays a fundamental role in the poleward contraction of the storm tracks found in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-class climate change simulations; the latter result is in the opposite sense of the trends in the Brewer–Dobson circulation found in most previous climate change experiments. 2) Cooling in the polar stratosphere also drives a poleward shift in the extratropical storm tracks. The tropospheric response is largely consistent with that found in previous studies, but it is shown to be very sensitive to the level and depth of the forcing. In the stratosphere, the Brewer–Dobson circulation weakens at midlatitudes, but it strengthens at high latitudes because of anomalously poleward heat fluxes on the flank of the polar vortex. 3) Warming at the polar surface drives an equatorward shift of the storm tracks. The storm-track response to polar warming is in the opposite sense of the response to tropical tropospheric heating; hence large warming over the Arctic may act to attenuate the response of the Northern Hemisphere storm track to tropical heating. 4) The signs of the tropospheric and stratospheric responses to all thermal forcings considered here are robust to seasonal changes in the basic state, but the amplitude and details of the responses exhibit noticeable differences between equinoctial and wintertime conditions. Additionally, the responses exhibit marked nonlinearity in the sense that the response to multiple thermal forcings applied simultaneously is quantitatively different from the sum of the responses to the same forcings applied independently. Thus the response of the model to a given thermal forcing is demonstrably dependent on the other thermal forcings applied to the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective--To assess the agreement between cardiac output (CO) measured by use of arterial pressure waveform analysis (PulseCO) and lithium dilution (LiDCO) in conscious dogs with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Animals--14 dogs with naturally occurring SIRS. Procedures--Pulse power analysis was performed on critically ill patients with a PulseCO monitor. All measurements were obtained with an indwelling arterial line and in accordance with the manufacturer's instructions. Intermittent measurements of CO were obtained with the LiDCO method to validate the PulseCO measurements at initial calibration (baseline; time 0) and at 4, 8, 16, and 24 hours. The 2 methods for measuring CO were compared by use of Bland-Altman analysis. An error rate for the limits of agreement between the 2 methods of < 30% was defined as being acceptable. Results--Bland-Altman analysis did not indicate good agreement between measurements obtained by use of the PulseCO and LiDCO methods, despite no significant change in cardiac index (CI) over time as measured with the LiDCO method. The percentage error for the overall difference in CI values between the PulseCO and LiDCO measurements was 122%, which indicated that the PulseCO method was not an acceptable means of CO measurement when compared with the LiDCO method for this patient population. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance--Agreement between the PulseCO and LiDCO methods for measurement of CO was not acceptable at 4- and 8-hour intervals after calibration in conscious dogs with naturally occurring SIRS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Familial late-onset Alzheimer''s disease (LOAD) shows high heritability. However, with the exception of ApoE, no well-replicated susceptibility genes have been identified to date. Several genome-wide linkage studies have nominated potential susceptibility loci but results are inconsistent, with individual scans showing few significant LOD scores. We have pooled linkage results from five independent genome scans and used the genome search meta-analysis (GSMA) method to analyse these data. The combined sample results in 2206 affected individuals and 785 families from Caucasian and Caribbean Hispanic ethnicities. The Caucasian samples included subjects from the US, the Netherlands and Sweden. Genome-wide suggestive evidence for linkage was observed on chromosomes 1p13.3-q31.1, 7pter-p21.1 and 8p22-p21.1 in the weighted GSMA analysis. The chromosome 8p region achieved the lowest summed rank p-value of 0.001. We also identified seven loci with nominally significant evidence for linkage to 3q12.3-q22.1, 6p21.1-q15, 7p14.1-q21.11, 17q24.3-qter and 19p13.3-qter. The GSMA finding suggests that these loci may harbour susceptibility genes for LOAD. We have also developed a web resource (http://alzres.iop.kcl.ac.uk/) to present additional GSMA analyses with different study selection criteria, facilitate the reanalysis of genome-wide linkage data and provide open access to the GSMA data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objective– To describe a case of barbiturate toxicosis in a dog secondary to ingestion of a previously buried euthanized goat carcass and to discuss the utility of urine drug testing in diagnosing barbiturate toxicosis. Case Summary– A 6-year-old neutered male Border Collie was presented to a university veterinary teaching hospital for evaluation of ataxia and acute collapse. Past pertinent history included Addison's disease that had been managed for 1 year. A companion dog was seen 12 hours earlier chewing on the partially decomposed head of a goat that had been euthanized 47 days previously and buried on the owner's property. The dog was laterally recumbent, unresponsive to stimuli, and hypothermic on physical examination. Initial blood work revealed hyponatremia and hyperkalemia, with a Na/K ratio of 18.5. The dog was volume resuscitated and received an injection of dexamethasone sodium phosphate due to a suspected Addisonian crisis. Despite this treatment, the dog remained laterally recumbent and unresponsive to stimuli. A urine drug screen was performed and was positive for barbiturates. A diagnosis of barbiturate toxicosis secondary to ingestion of a euthanized goat carcass was made. The dog was treated supportively over 12 hours with IV fluids and activated charcoal. The dog was able to walk 11 hours after presentation and was subsequently discharged from the hospital. New or Unique Information Provided– Urine drug testing is a fast, easy, and point-of-care test that may be useful in dogs to assist in the diagnosis of barbiturate intoxication. Proper disposal of euthanized animals is necessary to prevent toxicosis and possible death of companion animals and wildlife. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Amongst the family members of Cys-loop LGICs, the atypical ability of the 5-HT3A subunit to form functional homomeric receptors allowed a direct investigation of the role of the C-terminus. Deletion of the three C-terminal amino acids (ΔGln453-ΔTyr454-ΔAla455) from the h5-HT3A subunit prevented formation of a specific radioligand binding site as well as expression within the cell membrane. Removal of merely the C-terminal residue (ΔAla455) reduced specific radioligand binding (to 4±1% relative to the wild-type; cells grown at 37°C) and also cell membrane expression; these reductions were less evident when the ΔAla455 expressing cells were grown at 27°C (specific radioligand binding levels 27±5% relative to wild-type also grown at 27°C). Mutation of the h5-HT3A C-terminal amino acid, alanine, for either glycine (Ala455Gly), valine (Ala455Val) or leucine (Ala455Leu) reduced specific radioligand binding levels by 24±23%, 32±12% and 88±1%, respectively; the latter mutant also displaying reduced membrane expression. In contrast, mutation to alanine of the two amino acids preceding the C-terminal alanine (Gln453Ala and Tyr454Ala) had no detrimental effects on specific radioligand binding or cell membrane expression levels. The present study demonstrates an important role for the C-terminus in the formation of the functional h5-HT3A receptor. The partial restoration of 5-HT3 receptor binding and cell membrane expression when cells expressing C-terminal mutant 5-HT3A subunits were grown at a lower temperature (27°C) suggests that the C-terminus stabilises the 5-HT3 receptor allowing subunit folding and subsequent maturation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objective: Compare cardiac index (CI) and oxygen delivery index (DO2I) in conscious, critically ill dogs to control dogs; evaluate the association of CI and DO2I with outcome. Design: Prospective non-randomized clinical study. Setting: Veterinary teaching hospital. Animals: Eighteen client-owned dogs with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and 8 healthy control dogs. Measurements and Main Results: CI of dogs with SIRS was measured using lithium dilution at times 0, 4, 8, 16, and 24 hours. Data collected included physical exam, arterial blood gas (ABG) and hemoximetry. CI of control dogs was measured 3 times with 1 measurement of ABG. Mean CI ± SE in SIRS patients was 3.32 ± 0.95 L/min/m2; lower than controls at 4.18 ± 0.22 L/min/m2 ( P<0.001). Mean DO2I ± SE in SIRS patients was 412.91 ± 156.67 mL O2/min/m2; lower than controls at 785.24 ± 45.99 mL O2/min/m2 ( P<0.001). There was no difference in CI ( P=0.49) or DO2I ( P=0.51) for dogs that survived to discharge versus those that did not. There was no difference in mean CI ( P=0.97) or DO2I ( P=0.50) of survivors versus non-survivors for 28-day survival. Survivors had lower blood glucose ( P=0.03) and serum lactate concentrations ( P=0.04) than non-survivors. Conclusions: CI and DO2I in conscious dogs with SIRS were lower than control dogs, which differs from theories that dogs with SIRS are in a high cardiac output state. CI and DO2I were not significantly different between survivors and non-survivors. Similar to previous studies, lactate and glucose concentrations of survivors were lower than non-survivors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes that recent normative, economic and legal changes in the United States have made it more likely for American adults, especially women, to select a sex partner of their own sex. Data from the GSS and NHSLS (n = 18,170) were used to examine gender differences in trends in same-sex sexual partnering between 1988 and 2002. The proportion of both men and women who reported having had a same-sex sex partner in the previous year increased over the period, and the increase was greater for women than it was for men. The increase for women was present among both white and black women and was not limited to young adults. Changes in normative climate accounted for the increase in same-sex sexual partnering among men and for a portion of the increase among women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key Words: AFDC, nonmarital childbearing, normative climate, premarital childbearing, social norms, welfare benefit levels. Nationally representative, longitudinal survey data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics were used to examine the conditions under which welfare benefit levels affected the likelihood that low-income women age 15-24 bore their first child prior to marriage. Benefit levels had a positive effect on premarital childbearing during the 1980S and early 1990s but not during the 1970s or late 1960s, The effect of benefit levels was also stronger where community attitudes toward premarital sex were more tolerant than where attitudes were less tolerant, but this did not account for the varying effect of benefit levels over time. The study introduces a new way of measuring normative climate using attitudinal data from the General Social Surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russia's political transition from a totalitarian system to a fledgling democracy has brought Russian families new legal fights, at least on paper. The 1996 Family Code gives parents the fight to rear their children as they think best rather than in the manner directed by official state ideology. However, parents face a number of obstacles in realizing their new rights in contemporary Russia, These include traditional ways of thinking about child rearing, limited information and choices for parents, vested interests of professionals, absence of detailed regulations to guide the implementation of the new laws, and lack of local resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nationally representative data from the General Social Surveys indicate that from 1988 to 1998 there was an increasing likelihood than American men and women had had a same-gender sexual partner during the previous year. Increases in same-gender sexual partnering and decreases in exclusively opposite-gender sexual partnering during the previous 5 years were also evident among women over the 1988-1998 period. Same-gender sexual partnering was found to be associated with age, birth cohort, race, size of hometown at age 16, and mothers' education. The increase in same-gender sexual partnering over the 1988-1998 period persisted after controlling for these factors. Several possible explanations for the trend are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On average, 2-m temperature forecasts over North America for lead times greater than two weeks have generally low skill in operational dynamical models, largely because of the chaotic, unpredictable nature of daily weather. However, for a small subset of forecasts, more slowly evolving climate processes yield some predictable signal that may be anticipated in advance, occasioning "forecasts of opportunity." Forecasts of opportunity evolve seasonally, since they are a function of the seasonally varying jet stream and various remote forcings such as tropical heating. Prior research has demonstrated that for boreal winter, an empirical dynamical modeling technique called a linear inverse model (LIM), whose forecast skill is typically comparable to operational forecast models, can successfully identify forecasts of opportunity both for itself and for other dynamical models. In this study, we use a set of LIMs to examine how subseasonal North American 2-m temperature potential predictability and forecasts of opportunity vary from boreal winter through summer. We show how LIM skill evolves during the three phases of the spring transition of the North Pacific jet—late winter, spring, and early summer—revealing clear differences in each phase and a distinct skill minimum in spring. We identify a subset of forecasts with markedly higher skill in all three phases, despite LIM temperature skill that is somewhat low on average. However, skill improvements are only statistically significant during winter and summer, again reflecting the spring subseasonal skill minimum. The spring skill minimum is consistent with the skill predicted from theory and arises due to a minimum in LIM forecast signal-to-noise ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the effect of a 1-year-residency requirement, on master social work students' psychophysical health, general well-being, perceived workload, and grade point average. The study contributes to the existing research in two ways. First, the sample size was sufficiently large to detect important differences between part-time and full-time students. Second, the study addressed the previously neglected issue of whether students who prefer to attend school on a part-tine basis are negatively affected by a 1-year-residency policy. The study found no difference in outcome between part-time and full-time students who were enrolled in first-year courses. But when part-time students were obliged to complete their second-year courses on a full-time basis, their academic performance suffered compared with that of 2-year students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observers have expressed concern about the large number of social work students who expect to enter private practice. To explore why many students plan to enter private practice, the author conducted a survey of students in a New York State masters of social work program. Findings indicated that students' plans for private practice were influenced by their interest in treatment modalities and client groups that lend themselves to a private practice setting. In addition, students who placed great importance on being their own boss, earning a good income, and having flexible work hours were more likely than other social work students to plan to enter private practice. Students who placed great importance on helping the most disadvantaged people in their community were less likely than other students to plan to enter private practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study replicates and extends earlier research on the career interests of MSW students. The conclusions contradict those of previous researchers, who have reported that most social work students primarily are interested in becoming therapists and do not want to work with the most helpless and vulnerable client populations. The findings of this study suggest that the proportion of social work students who have no commitment to the mission of social work is quite small. There is, however, a large fraction of students who express a strong interest in traditional social work client groups and practice activities while simultaneously planning to enter private practice as therapists. The implications of these findings for students' career decisions are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article studies the impact of social welfare policies in Poland. It is examined whether such policies adversely affect family structure, cultural norms regarding work and family and people's sense of responsibility for their own well-being. As Poland began the difficult transition from a centrally planned economy with a one-party political system to a market economy and political democracy in 1989, one of the reasons given for the slower-than-hoped-for economic recovery was the "mentality" of many Poles. It was argued that people were still "thinking in the old way," waiting for the central authorities to make decisions that, under the new system, should be made by individuals, by local government, or by the market. President Lech Walesa and other political leaders characterized the Polish people as passive, lethargic, and suffering from learned helplessness. One of the reasons given for this state of affairs was that for years Poland's extensive social welfare policies had shielded people from unemployment and poverty and had thereby undermined their ability to help themselves when lit became necessary for them to do so.

Recent shifts in economic and social conditions have put young women who begin their childbearing as teenagers in an increasingly precarious economic position. In this article, I use a nationally representative data set to examine how the effect of teenage childbearing on women's economic well-being changed during the period 1968-87. A review of the literature on the consequences of teenage childbearing and changing economic conditions provides a framework in which to interpret the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August and mid-September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first-ever-observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ∼50% in the midstratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-1 activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the southern annular mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skillfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) induces temperature anomalies in the lower stratosphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) that are cold when lower-stratospheric winds are easterly and warm when winds are westerly. Recent literature has indicated that these QBO temperature anomalies are potentially important in influencing the tropical troposphere, and particularly in explaining the relationship between the QBO and the Madden--Julian oscillation (MJO). The authors examine the variability of QBO temperature anomalies across several time scales using reanalysis and observational datasets. The authors find that, in boreal winter relative to other seasons, QBO temperature anomalies are significantly stronger (i.e., colder in the easterly phase of the QBO and warmer in the westerly phase of the QBO) on the equator, but weaker off the equator. The equatorial and subtropical changes compensate such that meridional temperature gradients and thus (by thermal wind balance) equatorial zonal wind anomalies do not vary in amplitude as the temperature anomalies do. The same pattern of stronger on-equatorial and weaker off-equatorial QBO temperature anomalies is found on decadal time scales: stronger anomalies are seen for 1999-2019 compared to 1979-99. The causes of these changes to QBO temperature anomalies, as well as their possible relevance to the MJO--QBO relationship, are not known. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The winter of 2019–2020 was dominated by an extremely strong stratospheric polar vortex and positive tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO). Here, we analyze forecasts from six different prediction systems contributing to the C3S seasonal forecast database. Most performed very strongly, with consistently high skill for January–March 2020 from forecasts launched through October–December 2019. Although the magnitude of the anomalies was underestimated, the performance of most prediction systems was extremely high for a positive AO winter relative to the common hindcast climate. Ensemble members which better predicted the extremely strong stratospheric vortex better predicted the extreme tropospheric state. We find a significant relationship between forecasts of the anomalous midlatitude tropospheric wave pattern in early winter, which destructively interfered with the climatological stationary waves and the strength of the stratospheric vortex later in the winter. Our results demonstrate a strong interdependence between the accuracy of stratospheric vortex and AO forecasts. Plain Language Summary: Westerly winds during the winter of 2019–2020 were unusually strong and long lasting through a deep layer of the atmosphere. We investigate how well this was predicted months ahead of time. We find that seasonal weather forecast systems predicted the winter pattern very well, especially when compared with previous winters. Forecasts which better predicted the strength of the winds higher in the atmosphere did better overall. We find that there was a link between predictions of the weather patterns lower down in the atmosphere and how they suppressed large‐scale atmospheric waves in the midlatitudes, which likely helped the winds remain stronger higher up. Key Points: Forecasts from six seasonal prediction systems consistently predicted the large‐scale winter patterns with unusually high accuracyEnsemble members which better predicted the extreme stratospheric state also better predicted the extreme tropospheric stateAccurate prediction of the midlatitude tropospheric wave pattern was associated with more accurate stratospheric forecasts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate the occurrence of abdominal effusion and its association with decompressive cystocentesis in male cats with urethral obstruction. Design: Prospective observational clinical study. Animals: Forty‐five male neutered, client‐owned cats with naturally occurring urethral obstruction. Procedures: Laboratory testing and point‐of‐care ultrasonography were performed. Presence of abdominal effusion was evaluated using the Focused Assessment with Sonography for Trauma (FAST) technique at presentation. Decompressive cystocentesis was then performed prior to catheterization by a standardized technique. Repeat FAST examination was performed 15 minutes after cystocentesis and the following day to further assess for the presence of abdominal effusion. Results: A mean volume of 92.3 ± 35.2 mL of urine was removed from each cat via cystocentesis prior to catheterization. At presentation, 15 of 45 (33%) had abdominal effusion (13/15 with scant effusion, 2/15 with mild), with an additional 7 cats developing scant effusion 15 minutes post‐cystocentesis. By the following day, 4 cats still had scant effusion present. No significant complications secondary to cystocentesis were reported. No association was found between severity of azotemia, or volume removed by cystocentesis, and the presence of effusion at presentation or after decompressive cystocentesis was performed. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance: A single decompressive cystocentesis prior to catheterization did not lead to development of clinically significant abdominal effusion or other discernable complications and appears to be a safe procedure in this population of patients. Abdominal effusion may be found at presentation in cats with urethral obstruction. The significance of this effusion remains to be determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific have significant and disrupting impacts on the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts also extend above the troposphere, affecting the strength and variability of the stratospheric polar vortex in the high latitudes of both hemispheres, as well as the composition and circulation of the tropical stratosphere. El Niño events are associated with a warming and weakening of the polar vortex in the polar stratosphere of both hemispheres, while a cooling can be observed in the tropical lower stratosphere. These impacts are linked by a strengthened Brewer‐Dobson circulation. Anomalous upward wave propagation is observed in the extratropics of both hemispheres. For La Niña, these anomalies are often opposite. The stratosphere in turn affects surface weather and climate over large areas of the globe. Since these surface impacts are long‐lived, the changes in the stratosphere can lead to improved surface predictions on time scales of weeks to months. Over the past decade, our understanding of the mechanisms through which ENSO can drive impacts remote from the tropical Pacific has improved. This study reviews the possible mechanisms connecting ENSO to the stratosphere in the tropics and the extratropics of both hemispheres while also considering open questions, including nonlinearities in the teleconnections, the role of ENSO diversity, and the impacts of climate change and variability. Plain Language Summary: El Niño and La Niña events, the irregular warming and cooling of the tropical Pacific that occurs every couple of years, have disrupting impacts spanning the entire world. These remote impacts, so‐called "teleconnections", also reach the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere starting at around 10 km above the Earth's surface. El Niño leads to a warming of the stratosphere in both hemispheres, while the lower tropical stratosphere cools. These signatures are linked by a strengthened stratospheric circulation from the tropics to the polar regions. El Niño also leads to more frequent breakdowns of the stratospheric polar vortex, a band of strong eastward winds in the polar stratosphere. For La Niña, these effects tend to be opposite, though they are not always robust, suggesting nonlinear or nonstationary effects, long‐term variability, and trends in the teleconnections. The observational data record is not yet long enough to make conclusions with certainty, and models that try to reproduce the teleconnections indicate that teleconnections might be more linear than the limited number of observations indicate. Further research will be needed to separate the El Niño and La Niña teleconnections from other effects and to determine to what extent nonlinearity and nonstationarity are indeed present. Key Points: ENSO has a detectable impact on the composition and circulation of the stratosphere in the tropics and extratropicsThe changes in stratospheric variability due to ENSO have implications for improving surface predictionRecent advances in modeling have helped to put the response to the small sample of observed ENSO events in context [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]