Search

Abstract Rising temperatures are leading to increased prevalence of warm-affinity species in ecosystems, known as thermophilisation. However, factors influencing variation in thermophilisation rates among taxa and ecosystems, particularly freshwater communities with high diversity and high population decline, remain unclear. We analysed compositional change over time in 7123 freshwater and 6201 terrestrial, mostly temperate communities from multiple taxonomic groups. Overall, temperature change was positively linked to thermophilisation in both realms. Extirpated species had lower thermal affinities in terrestrial communities but higher affinities in freshwater communities compared to those persisting over time. Temperature change’s impact on thermophilisation varied with community body size, thermal niche breadth, species richness and baseline temperature; these interactive effects were idiosyncratic in the direction and magnitude of their impacts on thermophilisation, both across realms and taxonomic groups. While our findings emphasise the challenges in predicting the consequences of temperature change across communities, conservation strategies should consider these variable responses when attempting to mitigate climate-induced biodiversity loss.

Abstract Speciation rates vary greatly among taxa and regions and are shaped by both biotic and abiotic factors. However, the relative importance and interactions of these factors are not well understood. Here we investigate the potential drivers of speciation rates in South American freshwater fishes, the most diverse continental vertebrate fauna, by examining the roles of multiple biotic and abiotic factors. We integrate a dataset on species geographic distribution, phylogenetic, morphological, climatic, and habitat data. We find that Late Neogene-Quaternary speciation events are strongly associated with body-size evolution, particularly in lineages with small body sizes that inhabit higher elevations near the continental periphery. Conversely, the effects of temperature, area, and diversity-dependence, often thought to facilitate speciation, are negligible. By evaluating multiple factors simultaneously, we demonstrate that habitat characteristics associated with elevation, as well as body size evolution, correlate with rapid speciation in South American freshwater fishes. Our study emphasizes the importance of integrative approaches that consider the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors in generating macroecological patterns of species diversity.

Abstract Climate is an important limiting factor of species’ niches and it is therefore regularly included in ecological applications such as species distribution models (SDMs). Climate predictors are often used in the form of long-term mean values, yet many species experience wide climatic variation over their lifespan and within their geographical range which is unlikely captured by long-term means. Further, depending on their physiology, distinct groups of species cope with climate variability differently. Ectothermic species, which are directly dependent on the thermal environment are expected to show a different response to temporal or spatial variability in temperature than endothermic groups that can decouple their internal temperature from that of their surroundings. Here, we explore the degree to which spatial variability and long-term temporal variability in temperature and precipitation change niche estimates for ectothermic (730 amphibian, 1276 reptile), and endothermic (1961 mammal) species globally. We use three different species distribution modelling (SDM) algorithms to quantify the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability, based on global range maps of all species and climate data from 1979 to 2013. All SDMs were cross-validated and accessed for their performance using the Area under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The mean performance of SDMs using only climatic means as predictors was TSS = 0.71 and AUC = 0.90. The inclusion of spatial variability offers a significant gain in SDM performance (mean TSS = 0.74, mean AUC = 0.92), as does the inclusion of temporal variability (mean TSS = 0.80, mean AUC = 0.94). Including both spatial and temporal variability in SDMs shows the highest scores in AUC and TSS. Accounting for temporal rather than spatial variability in climate improved the SDM prediction especially in ectotherm groups such as amphibians and reptiles, while for endothermic mammals no such improvement was observed. These results indicate that including long term climate interannual climate variability into niche estimations matters most for ectothermic species that cannot decouple their physiology from the surrounding environment as endothermic species can.

Human expansion and anthropogenic activities are causing the conversion of forests to other land uses in the Himalayas, which is threatening species with extinction. To address this issue, we used an ensemble model to simulate the future landscape and assess its impact on the Kashmir Musk Deer (KMD) distribution in the context of land use change. Our simulation suggests a decline in croplands and shrublands and increase of mixed forests in the future scenario. Evergreen broad-leaf and needle-leaf forests are likely to convert to mixed forests, while croplands and barren areas transform into savannas. Precipitation, elevation, and mixed forests were found to be the most significant factors influencing KMD distribution. Only 20,690 km2 out of the total area of 324,666 km2 is currently suitable for KMD, but this is projected to increase to 22,701.47 km2 in the future. We predict a habitat gain of about 2,722 km2 in new areas and a loss of 711 km2 in existing habitats for KMD by 2030, with Uttarakhand state losing much of the suitable habitat. However, new habitats in future will become available for the species in Jammu and Kashmir. Our landscape configuration investigation indicates a decline in the number of patches and aggregation index in the future scenario. Most of the suitable KMD habitats are outside the current protected areas (PA), making the current PA network insufficient for long-term conservation. Therefore, we suggest forest managers to rationalize the boundary of the PAs to include suitable habitats that are currently not protected for the long-term survival of the KMD.

Aquatic (blue) and terrestrial (green) food webs are part of the same landscape, but it remains unclear whether they respond similarly to shared environmental gradients. Using long-term monitoring data from Switzerland and a metaweb approach, this study reveals how inferred blue and green food webs exhibit different properties along an elevation gradient and among land-use types.

How past climate change has affected biodiversity over large spatial scales remains underexplored. Here, the authors find marked homogenization in flowering plant phylogenetic diversity across Central and Northern Europe linked to rapid climate change and large distances to glacial refugia.

The relationships between ecosystem productivity and plant diversity are complex. Here, the authors show that sites with high productivity typically have reduced species diversity but high functional and phylogenetic diversity, potentially owing to the creation of additional niche space.

Phylogenetic turnover measures the evolutionary distance between species assemblages. Here, Saladin et al. analyze the phylogenetic turnover of European tetrapods after controlling for geographic distance and show greater roles of environment in recent evolutionary history for ectotherms than for endotherms.

Andean lakes are important for human well-being and biodiversity conservation, yet human-induced environmental changes threaten their biodiversity and the ecosystem services they provide. Knowledge of the relationship between biodiversity and environmental factors can provide insight into how human activity impacts lakes. We report trends of community composition of aquatic bird communities at six Andean lakes in Ecuador based on 15-years of monitoring. Additionally, we explore relationships among the abundance of aquatic bird species and environmental variables, such as elevation, water depth, biochemical demand of oxygen and concentration of phosphates and nitrites. We found a sustained population growth of one species of herbivorous bird, the Andean Coot, Fulica ardesiaca, across all lakes. Local trends in community composition show directional changes in four lakes and were likely a result of abundance increases of this species. Environmental factors related to eutrophication explained the abundance of F. ardesiaca, indicating that ongoing eutrophication of Andean Ecuadorian lakes, which results in increased submerged vegetation, benefits herbivorous species like this. Management measures that prevent further eutrophication combined with on-going monitoring should be considered in order to maintain ecosystem health and functioning.

Current rates of global environmental and climate change pose potential challenges for migratory species that must cope with or adapt to new conditions and different rates of change across broad spatial scales throughout their annual life cycle. North American migratory hummingbirds may be especially sensitive to changes in environment and climate due to their extremely small body size, high metabolic rates, and dependence on nectar as a main resource. We used occurrence information from the eBird citizen‐science database to track migratory movements of five North American hummingbird species (Archilochus alexandri, A. colubris, Selasphorus calliope, S. platycercus, and S. rufus) across 6 years (2008–2013) at a daily temporal resolution to describe annual and seasonal variation in migration patterns. Our findings suggest that the timing of the onset of spring migration generally varies less than the arrival on the wintering grounds. Species follow similar routes across years, but exhibit more variation in daily longitude than latitude. Long distance migrants generally had less annual variation in geographic location and timing than shorter distance migrants. Our study is among the first to examine variation in migration routes and timing for hummingbirds, but more work is needed to understand the capacity of these species to respond to different rates of environmental change along their migratory routes.

At high temperature (greater than 40°C) endotherms experience reduced passive heat dissipation (radiation, conduction and convection) and increased reliance on evaporative heat loss. High temperatures challenge flying birds due to heat produced by wing muscles. Hummingbirds depend on flight for foraging, yet inhabit hot regions. We used infrared thermography to explore how lower passive heat dissipation during flight impacts body-heat management in broad-billed (Cynanthus latirostris, 3.0 g), black-chinned (Archilochus alexandri, 3.0 g), Rivoli's (Eugenes fulgens, 7.5 g) and blue-throated (Lampornis clemenciae, 8.0 g) hummingbirds in southeastern Arizona and calliope hummingbirds (Selasphorus calliope, 2.6 g) in Montana. Thermal gradients driving passive heat dissipation through eye, shoulder and feet dissipation areas are eliminated between 36 and 40°C. Thermal gradients persisted at higher temperatures in smaller species, possibly allowing them to inhabit warmer sites. All species experienced extended daytime periods lacking thermal gradients. Broad-billed hummingbirds lacking thermal gradients regulated the mean total-body surface temperature at approximately 38°C, suggesting behavioural thermoregulation. Blue-throated hummingbirds were inactive when lacking passive heat dissipation and hence might have the lowest temperature tolerance of the four species. Use of thermal refugia permitted hummingbirds to tolerate higher temperatures, but climate change could eliminate refugia, forcing distributional shifts in hummingbird populations.

Many biodiversity hotspots are located in montane regions, especially in the tropics. A possible explanation for this pattern is that the narrow thermal tolerances of tropical species and greater climatic stratification of tropical mountains create more opportunities for climate-associated parapatric or allopatric speciation in the tropics relative to the temperate zone. However, it is unclear whether a general relationship exists among latitude, climatic zonation and the ecology of speciation. Recent taxon-specific studies obtained different results regarding the role of climate in speciation in tropical versus temperate areas. Here, we quantify overlap in the climatic distributions of 93 pairs of sister species of mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles restricted to either the New World tropics or to the Northern temperate zone. We show that elevational ranges of tropical- and temperate-zone species do not differ from one another, yet the temperature range experienced by species in the temperate zone is greater than for those in the tropics. Moreover, tropical sister species tend to exhibit greater similarity in their climatic distributions than temperate sister species. This pattern suggests that evolutionary conservatism in the thermal niches of tropical taxa, coupled with the greater thermal zonation of tropical mountains, may result in increased opportunities for allopatric isolation, speciation and the accumulation of species in tropical montane regions. Our study exemplifies the power of combining phylogenetic and spatial datasets of global climatic variation to explore evolutionary (rather than purely ecological) explanations for the high biodiversity of tropical montane regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mutualistic interactions, such as plant-mycorrhizal or plant-pollinator interactions, are widespread in ecological communities and frequently exploited by cheaters, species that profit from interactions without providing benefits in return. Cheating usually negatively affects the fitness of the individuals that are cheated on, but the effects of cheating at the community level remains poorly understood. Here, we describe 2 different kinds of cheating in mutualistic networks and use a generalized Lotka-Volterra model to show that they have very different consequences for the persistence of the community. Conservative cheating, where a species cheats on its mutualistic partners to escape the cost of mutualistic interactions, negatively affects community persistence. In contrast, innovative cheating occurs with species with whom legitimate interactions are not possible, because of a physiological or morphological barrier. Innovative cheating can enhance community persistence under some conditions: when cheaters have few mutualistic partners, cheat at low or intermediate frequency and the cost associated with mutualism is not too high. Under these conditions, the negative effects of cheating on partner persistence are overcompensated at the community level by the positive feedback loops that arise in diverse mutualistic communities. Using an empirical dataset of plant-bird interactions (hummingbirds and flowerpiercers), we found that observed cheating patterns are highly consistent with theoretical cheating patterns found to increase community persistence. This result suggests that the cheating patterns observed in nature could contribute to promote species coexistence in mutualistic communities, instead of necessarily destabilizing them.

Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

The composition of ecological assemblages depends on a variety of factors including environmental filtering, biotic interactions and dispersal limitation. By evaluating the phylogenetic pattern of assemblages, we gain insight into the relative contribution of these mechanisms to generating observed assemblages. We address some limitations in the field of community phylogenetics by using simulations, biologically relevant null models, and cost distance analysis to evaluate simultaneous mechanisms leading to observed patterns of co-occurrence. Building from past studies of phylogenetic community structure, we applied our approach to hummingbird assemblages in the Northern Andes. We compared the relationship between relatedness and co-occurrence among predicted assemblages, based on estimates of suitable habitat and dispersal limitation, and observed assemblages. Hummingbird co-occurrence peaked at intermediate relatedness and decreased when a closely-related species was present. This result was most similar to simulations that included simultaneous effects of phylogenetic conservatism and repulsion. In addition, we found older sister taxa were only weakly more separated by geographic barriers, suggesting that time since dispersal is unlikely to be the sole factor influencing co-occurrence of closely related species. Our analysis highlights the role of multiple mechanisms acting simultaneously, and provides a hypothesis for the potential importance of competition at regional scales.

Patterns of phylogenetic structure of assemblages are increasingly used to gain insight into the ecological and evolutionary processes involved in the assembly of co-occurring species. Metrics of phylogenetic structure can be sensitive to scaling issues and data availability. Here we empirically assess the sensitivity of four metrics of phylogenetic structure of assemblages to changes in (i) the source of data, (ii) the spatial grain at which assemblages are defined, and (iii) the definition of species pools using hummingbird (Trochilidae) assemblages along an elevational gradient in Colombia. We also discuss some of the implications in terms of the potential mechanisms driving these patterns. To explore how source of data influence phylogenetic structure we defined assemblages using three sources of data: field inventories, museum specimens, and range maps. Assemblages were defined at two spatial grains: coarse-grained (elevational bands of 800-m width) and fine-grained (1-km(2) plots). We used three different species pools: all species contained in assemblages, all species within half-degree quadrats, and all species either above or below 2000 m elevation. Metrics considering phylogenetic relationships among all species within assemblages showed phylogenetic clustering at high elevations and phylogenetic evenness in the lowlands, whereas those metrics considering only the closest co-occurring relatives showed the opposite trend. This result suggests that using multiple metrics of phylogenetic structure should provide greater insight into the mechanisms shaping assemblage structure. The source and spatial grain of data had important influences on estimates of both richness and phylogenetic structure. Metrics considering the co-occurrence of close relatives were particularly sensitive to changes in the spatial grain. Assemblages based on range maps included more species and showed less phylogenetic structure than assemblages based on museum or field inventories. Coarse-grained assemblages included more distantly related species and thus showed a more even phylogenetic structure than fine-grained assemblages. Our results emphasize the importance of carefully selecting the scale, source of data and metric used in analysis of the phylogenetic structure of assemblages.