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Abstract Background Hyperglycemia is an on-target effect of PI3Kα inhibitors. Early identification and intervention of treatment-induced hyperglycemia is important for improving management of patients receiving a PI3Kα inhibitor like alpelisib. Here, we characterize incidence of grade 3/4 alpelisib-related hyperglycemia, along with time to event, management, and outcomes using a machine learning model. Methods Data for the risk model were pooled from patients receiving alpelisib ± fulvestrant in the open-label, phase 1 X2101 trial and the randomized, double-blind, phase 3 SOLAR-1 trial. The pooled population (n = 505) included patients with advanced solid tumors (X2101, n = 221) or HR+/HER2− advanced breast cancer (SOLAR-1, n = 284). External validation was performed using BYLieve trial patient data (n = 340). Hyperglycemia incidence and management were analyzed for SOLAR-1. Results A random forest model identified 5 baseline characteristics most associated with risk of developing grade 3/4 hyperglycemia (fasting plasma glucose, body mass index, HbA1c, monocytes, age). This model was used to derive a score to classify patients as high or low risk for developing grade 3/4 hyperglycemia. Applying the model to patients treated with alpelisib and fulvestrant in SOLAR-1 showed higher incidence of hyperglycemia (all grade and grade 3/4), increased use of antihyperglycemic medications, and more discontinuations due to hyperglycemia (16.7% vs. 2.6% of discontinuations) in the high- versus low-risk group. Among patients in SOLAR-1 (alpelisib + fulvestrant arm) with PIK3CA mutations, median progression-free survival was similar between the high- and low-risk groups (11.0 vs. 10.9 months). For external validation, the model was applied to the BYLieve trial, for which successful classification into high- and low-risk groups with shorter time to grade 3/4 hyperglycemia in the high-risk group was observed. Conclusions A risk model using 5 clinically relevant baseline characteristics was able to identify patients at higher or lower probability for developing alpelisib-induced hyperglycemia. Early identification of patients who may be at higher risk for hyperglycemia may improve management (including monitoring and early intervention) and potentially lead to improved outcomes. Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01219699 (registration date: October 13, 2010; retrospectively registered), ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02437318 (registration date: May 7, 2015); ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03056755 (registration date: February 17, 2017).