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The flood history of the transboundary Moselle River has so far not been analysed at the watershed scale. This study is based on a large collection of historical archives in hydrology dating to the beginning of the instrumental period. Many valuable archives are made available by the authors but data are discontinuous and heterogeneous. We describe homogenization and reconstruction methods leading to an original flood dataset covering the entire Moselle basin over the last two centuries. The flood series show that the basin is predominantly affected by oceanic floods that mostly occur in winter and that severe flooding generally affects the entire basin. A flood frequency analysis shows that the series are stationary and that flood quantiles obtained with short measured record series and reconstructed series are quite similar. However, although long historical series give robustness to the frequency analyses they also highlight bias and uncertainties related to sampling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Streamflow is often the only variable used to evaluate hydrological models. In a previous international comparison study, eight research groups followed an identical protocol to calibrate 12 hydrological models using observed streamflow of catchments within the Meuse basin. In the current study, we quantify the differences in five states and fluxes of these 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance, in a systematic and comprehensive way. Next, we assess model behavior plausibility by ranking the models for a set of criteria using streamflow and remote-sensing data of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. We found substantial dissimilarities between models for annual interception and seasonal evaporation rates, the annual number of days with water stored as snow, the mean annual maximum snow storage and the size of the root-zone storage capacity. These differences in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Modeled annual evaporation rates are consistent with Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) estimates. However, there is a large uncertainty in modeled and remote-sensing annual interception. Substantial differences are also found between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and modeled number of days with snow storage. Models with relatively small root-zone storage capacities and without root water uptake reduction under dry conditions tend to have an empty root-zone storage for several days each summer, while this is not suggested by remote-sensing data of evaporation, soil moisture and vegetation indices. On the other hand, models with relatively large root-zone storage capacities tend to overestimate very dry total storage anomalies of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). None of the models is systematically consistent with the information available from all different (remote-sensing) data sources. Yet we did not reject models given the uncertainties in these data sources and their changing relevance for the system under investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Streamflow is often the only variable used to constrain hydrological models. In a previous international comparison study, eight research groups followed an identical protocol to calibrate a total of twelve hydrological models using observed streamflow of catchments within the Meuse basin. In the current study, we hypothesize that these twelve process-based models with similar streamflow performance have similar representations of internal states and fluxes. We test our hypothesis by comparing internal states and fluxes between models and we assess their plausibility using remotely-sensed products of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. Our results indicate that models with similar streamflow performance represent internal states and fluxes differently. Substantial dissimilarities between models are found for annual and seasonal evaporation and interception rates, the number of days per year with water stored as snow, the mean annual maximum snow storage and the size of the root-zone storage capacity. Relatively small root-zone storage capacities for several models lead to drying-out of the root-zone storage and significant reduction of evaporative fluxes each summer, which is not suggested by remotely-sensed estimates of evaporation and root-zone soil moisture. These differences in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Using remotely-sensed products, we could evaluate the plausibility of model representations only to some extent, as many of these internal variables remain unknown, highlighting the need for experimental research. We also encourage modelers to rely on multi-model and multi-parameter studies to reveal to decision-makers the uncertainties inherent to the heterogeneity of catchments and the lack of evaluation data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International collaboration between research institutes and universities is a promising way to reach consensus on hydrological model development. Although comparative studies are very valuable for international cooperation, they do often not lead to very clear new insights regarding the relevance of the modelled processes. We hypothesise that this is partly caused by model complexity and the comparison methods used, which focus too much on a good overall performance instead of focusing on specific events. In this study, we use an approach that focuses on the evaluation of specific events and characteristics. Eight international research groups calibrated their hourly model on the Ourthe catchment in Belgium and carried out a validation in time for the Ourthe catchment and a validation in space for nested and neighbouring catchments. The same protocol was followed for each model and an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics (i.e. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), clear differences could be observed for specific events. The results illustrate the relevance of including a very quick flow reservoir preceding the root zone storage to model peaks during low flows and including a slow reservoir in parallel with the fast reservoir to model the recession for the Ourthe catchment. This intercomparison enhanced the understanding of the hydrological functioning of the catchment and, above all, helped to evaluate each model against a set of alternative models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a wide recognition of the watershed scale as the right scale for global water management, notably in the context of the water framework directive. Hence, it often refers to international management and therefore to various pre-existing regional management tools, models or even objectives. In this study, we aim at describing the collaborative assessment of climate change's effect on low-flow regime and the consequences on three water-related sectors: drinking water production, agriculture and electricity production. The paper highlights the choices that were made during the study that involved scientific teams, managers and stakeholders from the four main countries of the Meuse Basin. It shows that the methodological choices were operational and aimed at preserving existing methods and knowledge within each country. They led to hydrological scenarios comparable to the main available ensemble approaches and to methodologies well accepted within the concerned countries. The results of the project highlight and quantify the water scarcity that the three sectors will have to face by the end of the century mainly regarding the electricity production. They also show that common allocation rules are necessary to manage water demand during future low-flow periods. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Available data from nearby gauging stations can provide a great source of hydrometric information that is potentially transferable to an ungauged site. Furthermore, streamflow measurements may even be available for the ungauged site. This paper explores the potential of four distance-based regionalization methods to simulate daily hydrographs at almost ungauged pollution-control sites. Two methods use only the hydrological information provided by neighbouring catchments; the other two are new regionalization methods parameterized with a limited number of streamflow data available at the site of interest. Based on a network of 149 streamgauges and 21 pollution-control sites located in the Upper Rhine-Meuse area, the comparative assessment demonstrates the benefit of making available point streamflow measurements at the location of interest for improving quantitative streamflow prediction. The advantage is moderate for the prediction of flow types (stormflow, recession flow, baseflow) and pulse shape (duration of rising limb and falling limb). Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Viglione [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological models are widely used tools in water resources management. Their successful application requires an efficient calibration of the model parameters. Nowadays, there are very powerful global search methods applied to this end, but they have the disadvantage of presenting a high computational cost, because the numerical model to be calibrated needs to be evaluated a large number of times with different parameter sets. In this context, surrogate models can reduce significantly the run time of hydrological models, easing the total computational burden of global search methods. In the present work, we propose and explore the combination of a swarm intelligence-based optimization method, the artificial bee colony algorithm, with a surrogate model based on artificial neural networks in order to calibrate hydrological models. The proposed approach (ABC-ANN) is applied to the calibration and validation of a nine-parameter continuous hydrological model in two basins located in the northwest of Spain. Several aspects of the algorithm are evaluated, including its capability to calibrate the model parameters and its efficiency in terms of CPU time compared to a standard implementation of the ABC algorithm. Results show that the ABC-ANN algorithm is able to identify the location of suitable parameter sets with an accuracy rate within 89 and 99 %, and a reduction in CPU time of more than three orders of magnitude when compared to a sequential implementation. In addition, the frequency distribution of the parameter sets identified gives valuable information about the sensitivity of model output to the input parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island's severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New advances in spatial technology enable ethnographic data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to be integrated in innovative ways. These include mapping and virtual reconstruction of buildings no longer standing, of routes used for transportation and hunting, and other spatial ethnographic data, visualized in three dimensions (3D). Representation in 3D allows for a more complete understanding of landscape relationships, and can be used as a learning tool to convey information quickly. This article applies these techniques to the reconstruction of the now-abandoned village of Belkofski, Alaska, for presentation in a video ethnography produced by the Aleutian Pribilof Island Association in coordination with the Belkofski Tribe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earlier trend analyses on rainfall series have clearly shown that the winter rainfall regime has changed since World War II over Northwestern Europe as a consequence of an enhanced westerly atmospheric circulation. However, few studies have been conducted on the potential link between the spatial variability of winter rainfall regime change and the topography. In the present study, a time series analysis of winter rainfall due to atmospheric westerly fluxes is performed and related to the topography of the middle Rhine-Meuse area. The resulting geographical patterns show a zonal anisotropism of the winter rainfall regime change implying an intensification of horizontal rainfall gradients. More contrasted westerly winter rainfall amounts are observed in mountainous areas during the post-1979 period following the changing-point year of atmospheric circulation over Northwestern Europe. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]