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Abstract Rising temperatures are leading to increased prevalence of warm-affinity species in ecosystems, known as thermophilisation. However, factors influencing variation in thermophilisation rates among taxa and ecosystems, particularly freshwater communities with high diversity and high population decline, remain unclear. We analysed compositional change over time in 7123 freshwater and 6201 terrestrial, mostly temperate communities from multiple taxonomic groups. Overall, temperature change was positively linked to thermophilisation in both realms. Extirpated species had lower thermal affinities in terrestrial communities but higher affinities in freshwater communities compared to those persisting over time. Temperature change’s impact on thermophilisation varied with community body size, thermal niche breadth, species richness and baseline temperature; these interactive effects were idiosyncratic in the direction and magnitude of their impacts on thermophilisation, both across realms and taxonomic groups. While our findings emphasise the challenges in predicting the consequences of temperature change across communities, conservation strategies should consider these variable responses when attempting to mitigate climate-induced biodiversity loss.

Increasing temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change are leading to changes in the composition of local communities across biomes. This has implications for ecological assessment methods that rely on macroinvertebrates as bioindicators of water quality. To investigate the influence of changing water temperature on these assessment methods, we analysed macroinvertebrate data from Swiss national monitoring programs. We used a species distribution model to simulate temperature change effects on macroinvertebrate communities and estimated the resulting changes on three biological indices commonly used in Switzerland, namely the species richness of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT), the Swiss biological (IBCH) index along with its components, as well as the species at risk pesticides (SPEARpesticides) index. While results vary by temperature scenario and index, our model results for the most realistic water temperature increase scenario of + 2 °C across most sites in Switzerland suggest no, or only a minor, influence of temperature (not accounting for other hydrological changes). Our model projection predicted only a small increase in the probability of occurrence for 70 % of the studied families. The sensitivity to temperature as captured in our model is generally not very high and varies among the biological indices: on average across all sites, a + 2 °C increase in temperature resulted in a 7 % increase in EPT species richness, a 4 % increase in the IBCH index, and a less than 1 % increase in the SPEARpesticides index. Our study suggests the robustness of these biological indices to moderate warming and points towards the usefulness of these biological indices for the next few decades as tools for water quality assessment. Despite some limitations of statistical species distribution models (e.g., not accounting for dispersal limitation or biotic interactions, predictive performance varying by taxon), the study provides valuable insights into the complex relationships between environmental factors and macroinvertebrate communities, and the potential impacts of future temperature change. These findings can inform conservation and management efforts for these important ecological systems.

Evaluating the impact of future changes in land-use and climate on species communities, especially species richness, is one of the most important challenges of current research in ecology and conservation. The impact of environmental changes on species richness depends on its sensitivity (i.e., how strongly a given level of change influences the ecological community) and its exposure (i.e., the amount of change that occurs). To examine the sensitivity, exposure, and potential impact of future environmental conditions on bird communities, we compiled data on bird species richness for Pakistan—a neglected region in macro- or country-scale studies. Since bird species richness strongly varies across seasons due to the seasonal occurrence of migratory species in winter, we compared both wintering (migratory plus resident species) and breeding (resident species only) bird richness. We found breeding and wintering species richness to be sensitive to temperature, precipitation and rainfed cropland by being positively related to these factors. Exposure varied regionally, with projected temperature changes being most profound in northern regions while the strongest projected precipitation changes occurred in central and southern regions. The projected impact of future environmental change were highly heterogeneous across the country and differed between the wintering and breeding communities. Overall, the most negatively impacted region was projected to be the Khyber Pakhtunkha province in the North of Pakistan, due to reductions in precipitation and rainfed cropland, resulting in a projected negative impact, especially on wintering species richness. By highlighting the regional and seasonal bird communities most at risk, our findings provide useful information for policy makers to help devise new policies for mitigating negative impacts of future environmental changes on birds within Pakistan.

Although Pakistan has rich biodiversity, many groups are poorly known, particularly insects. To address this gap, we employed DNA barcoding to survey its insect diversity. Specimens obtained through diverse collecting methods at 1,858 sites across Pakistan from 2010–2019 were examined for sequence variation in the 658 bp barcode region of the cytochrome c oxidase 1 (COI) gene. Sequences from nearly 49,000 specimens were assigned to 6,590 Barcode Index Numbers (BINs), a proxy for species, and most (88%) also possessed a representative image on the Barcode of Life Data System (BOLD). By coupling morphological inspections with barcode matches on BOLD, every BIN was assigned to an order (19) and most (99.8%) were placed to a family (362). However, just 40% of the BINs were assigned to a genus (1,375) and 21% to a species (1,364). Five orders (Coleoptera, Diptera, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, Lepidoptera) accounted for 92% of the specimens and BINs. More than half of the BINs (59%) are so far only known from Pakistan, but others have also been reported from Bangladesh (13%), India (12%), and China (8%). Representing the first DNA barcode survey of the insect fauna in any South Asian country, this study provides the foundation for a complete inventory of the insect fauna in Pakistan while also contributing to the global DNA barcode reference library.

Metabolic critical temperatures define the range of ambient temperatures where endotherms are able to minimize energy allocation to thermogenesis. Examining the relationship between metabolic critical temperatures and basal metabolic rates (BMR) provides a unique opportunity to gain a better understanding of how animals respond to varying ambient climatic conditions, especially in times of ongoing and projected future climate change. We make use of this opportunity by testing the heat dissipation limit (HDL) theory, which hypothesizes that the maximum amount of heat a species can dissipate constrains its energetics. Specifically, we test the theory’s implicit prediction that BMR should be lower under higher metabolic critical temperatures. We analysed the relationship of BMR with upper and lower critical temperatures for a large dataset of 146 endotherm species using regression analyses, carefully accounting for phylogenetic relationships and body mass. We show that metabolic critical temperatures are negatively related with BMR in both birds and mammals. Our results confirm the predictions of the HDL theory, suggesting that metabolic critical temperatures and basal metabolic rates respond in concert to ambient climatic conditions. This implies that heat dissipation capacities of endotherms may be an important factor to take into account in assessments of species’ vulnerability to climate change.

The ever-increasing human-mediated wildlife reshuffling is raising concern for the conservation of biodiversity. The loss of biological distinctiveness among regions lessens the genetic diversity and consequently the evolutionary potential of local biotas to tackle present-day global change and human disturbance. This process may be sometimes cryptic unless investigated by means of a molecular approach. In this respect, game birds are a paradigmatic case. The black francolin (Francolinus francolinus, Phasianidae) is a medium-sized galliform whose distribution range stretches from Cyprus to the Gulf of Bengal. Six morphologic subspecies are known, with three of which occurring in Pakistan, where the species is heavily hunted and used as pet for chirping competitions. We genotyped 98 samples (feathers) at both the entire mitochondrial DNA Control Region gene and nine microsatellite loci to get a deeper insight into the genetic diversity of the black francolin in Pakistan in order to offer cogent recommendations for its conservation management. We identified several mtDNA lineages that were consistent with the currently described subspecies/taxonomy whose pattern of co-occurrence is compatible with the geological history and the faunal movement routes of the region under study. However, the biparentally inherited microsatellites returned a quite discordant picture of an extensive, sex-biased genetic mixing due to the intensive relocations of already overharvested male individuals for chirping competitions. Our results indicated that the genetic integrity of the black francolin in Pakistan could be seriously at risk and call for monitoring and limiting its trade other than enhancing the public awareness of the importance of local biodiversity resources.