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The year 2023 marked a turning point for the Antarctic region as the Southern Hemisphere experienced a significant reduction in its sea ice extent, with a record-breaking sea ice minimum in July 2023 of approximately 2.4 million square kilometers below the long-term average. This study highlights the drivers behind this exceptional event by combining observational, satellite, and reanalysis data, with a special focus on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Throughout the year, the Antarctic Sea ice extent broke record after record, ranking as the lowest sea ice on record from January to October, except for March and April. The exceptionally low sea ice extent from May to August was mainly driven by the prevalence of a zonal wave number 3 pattern, characterized by alternating surface high- and low-pressure systems, which favored the advection of heat and moisture, especially over the Ross Sea (RS), Weddell Sea (WS), and Indian Ocean (IO). The anomalous large-scale circulation was accompanied by record-high sea surface and subsurface temperatures over the regions with reduced sea ice extent. In addition to the air and ocean temperature, record-breaking heat, moisture, and sensible heat fluxes have been observed, especially over the WS, RS, and IO, which further amplified the reduction in the sea ice extent over these areas. Notably, over the Weddell Sea, we observed air temperature anomalies reaching up to 8°C and sea surface temperature anomalies of up to 3°C from May to July. Similar temperature anomalies were recorded over the Ross Sea, particularly in July and August. A change point analysis indicates that a regime shift in the Antarctic Sea ice, as well as in the average mean air temperature and (sub)surface ocean temperature over the Weddell Sea, started around 2015. The low sea ice extent in Antarctica in 2023 was a stark reminder of the ongoing changes in the polar regions. Thus, understanding the underlying mechanisms of these extreme events provides crucial insights into the changing dynamics of Antarctic Sea ice and its broader climatic significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of evapotranspiration to anthropogenic warming is of critical importance for the water and carbon cycle. Contradictory conclusions about evapotranspiration changes are caused primarily by their brevity in time and sparsity in space, as well as the strong influence of internal variability. Here, we present the first gridded reconstruction of the summer (June, July, and August) vapor pressure deficit (VPD) for the past 4 centuries at the European level. This gridded reconstruction is based on 26 European tree ring oxygen isotope records and is obtained using a random forest approach. According to validation scores obtained with the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, our reconstruction is robust over large parts of Europe since 1600, in particular for the westernmost and northernmost regions, where most tree ring records are located. Based on our reconstruction, we show that from the mid-1700s a trend towards higher summer VPD occurred in central Europe and the Mediterranean region that is related to a simultaneous increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. This increasing summer VPD trend continues throughout the observational period and in recent times. Moreover, our summer VPD reconstruction helps to visualize the local and regional impacts of the current climate change, as well as to minimize statistical uncertainties of historical VPD variability. This paper provides also new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation, and we show that summer VPD has two preferred modes of variability, namely a NW–SE dipole-like mode and a N–S dipole-like mode. Furthermore, the interdisciplinary use of the data should be emphasized, as summer VPD is a crucial parameter for many climatological feedback processes in the Earth's surface system. The reconstructed summer VPD gridded data over the last 400 years are available at the following link: 10.5281/zenodo.5958836 (Balting et al., 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its involvement in numerous feedbacks, sea ice plays a crucial role not only for polar climate but also at global scale. We analyse state-of-the-art observed, reconstructed, and modelled sea-ice concentration (SIC) together with sea surface temperature (SST) to disentangle the influence of different forcing factors on the variability of these coupled fields. Canonical Correlation Analysis provides distinct pairs of coupled Arctic SIC–Atlantic SST variability which are linked to prominent oceanic and atmospheric modes of variability over the period 1854–2017. The first pair captures the behaviour of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) while the third and can be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in a physically consistent manner. The dominant global SIC–Atlantic SST coupled mode highlights the contrast between the responses of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice to changes in AMOC over the 1959–2021 period. Model results indicate that coupled SST–SIC patterns can be associated with changes in ocean circulation. We conclude that a correct representation of AMOC-induced coupled SST–SIC variability in climate models is essential to understand the past, present and future sea-ice evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite intense efforts to understand the links between the Arctic region and mid-latitudes, there is no consensus on the relationship between sea ice retreat and the frequency of occurrence of mid-latitude weather extremes (e.g., cold spells, heatwaves, droughts). By tracking monthly variabilities based on observational data, we show that a decline in sea ice over the Barents-Kara Seas in autumn is related to extreme cold winters over much of Europe. The winter temperature change in Europe is a direct response to a stationary Rossby wave generated by the lower troposphere diabatic heat anomaly as a result of sea ice loss over the Barents-Kara Seas in autumn, leading to a negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation and more frequent episodes of the atmospheric blocking over Greenland and the North Atlantic. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and enhanced blocking are closely related and mutually reinforcing, shaping the spatial distribution of cold anomalies over much of the European continent. Our results suggest a link between the unusual retreat in Barents-Kara Sea ice during autumn and the occurrence of intense European weather extremes in subsequent winter months. Nevertheless, climate models have difficulties to capture the variability and trend of the Artic sea ice and to capture the relationship between sea ice reduction and European winter extremes. Consequently, further work on this relationship on monthly time scales will improve our understanding of the prediction of midlatitude extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of evapotranspiration to anthropogenic warming is of critical importance for the water and carbon cycle. Contradictory conclusions about evapotranspiration changes are caused primarily by their brevity in time and sparsity in space, as well as the strong influence of internal variability. Here, we present the first gridded reconstruction of the summer vapour pressure deficit (VPD) for the past four centuries at the European level. This gridded reconstruction is based on 26 European tree-ring oxygen isotope records and is obtained using a Random Forest approach. Based on our reconstruction, we show that from the mid- 1700s, a trend towards higher VPD occurred in Central Europe and the Mediterranean region which is related to a simultaneous increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. This increasing VPD trend continues throughout the observational period and in recent times. Moreover, our VPD reconstruction helps to visualize the local and regional impacts of the current climate change as well as to minimize statistical uncertainties of historical VPD variability. Furthermore, the interdisciplinary use of the data should be emphasized, as VPD is a crucial parameter for many climatological feedback processes in the earth surface system. The reconstructed VPD gridded data, over the last 400 years, is available at the following link: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5958836 (Balting, D. F. et al., 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we made use of a regional oak tree-ring network from six stands that cover the northern Moldavian Plateau (eastern Europe) to analyze how different tree ring parameters (i.e., early wood tree-ring width, late wood tree-ring width, and total tree-ring width) of Quercus sp. are influenced by the occurrence of extreme climatic events (e.g., long-lasting drought events). In order to explore the influence of extreme hydroclimatic events on tree ring width, we have selected each of the six most extreme positive and negative years of tree growth and addressed the seasonal cycle of tree growth in comparison with the main climatic parameters, then evaluated both the current and lagged consequences of extreme hydroclimatic events on tree ring width and the capacity of trees to recover. Our results indicate that the variability of oak tree ring width from the Moldavian Plateau is mainly influenced by the availability of water resources, and that an important limiting growth factor for Quercus sp. is the occurrence of long-lasting drought events, e.g., at least two years in a row with severe drought conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clouds are notoriously difficult to simulate. Here, we separate and quantify the impact of Pacific climate modes on total cloud cover (TCC) variability, using reliable satellite observations together with state-of-the art reanalysis outputs, over the 1979–2020 period. The two most prominent modes of annual TCC variability show intense loadings over the Pacific basin and explain most of the variance in what could be considered the "signal" in satellite TCC data. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) provides coupled TCC—sea surface temperature (SST) patterns that are linked to the Eastern Pacific (EP) ElNiño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO in a physically consistent manner. The two ENSO modes dominate global coupled SST–TCC variability with the footprint of the CP ENSO explaining roughly half of the variance induced by the EP ENSO among these coupled fields. Both the EP and the CP ENSO exert an influence on Pacific decadal TCC variability. The impact of both ENSO modes on global total cloud cover variability is amplified by two positive feedbacks. These results could be used as a reference for model investigations on future projections of coupled TCC—SST variability responses to the CP and the EP ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we show that the extreme Arctic winter 2015/16 can be partially explained by the superposition of different atmospheric teleconnection patterns, such as the Arctic Oscillation, the Pacific-North American teleconnection, and El Niño—Southern Oscillation, whereas winter 2016/17 had different trigger mechanisms. While the temperature anomalies for winter 2015/16 were mainly driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the temperature anomalies throughout winter 2016/17 may possibly reflect a response to the extremely wet and warm autumn of 2016. The atmospheric circulation anomalies in winter 2016/17 were not as "spectacular" as the ones in the previous winter, but autumn 2016 was one of the most exceptional autumns in the observational record so far and it features some remarkable records: the lowest temperature gradient between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes over the last 70 years, the lowest autumn sea ice extent over the last 40 years, and the warmest and wettest autumn over the last 37 years over most of the Arctic basin. Moreover, we demonstrate that although the background conditions were similar for winters 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 (e.g., reduced sea ice cover, a reduced temperature gradient between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes, and a very warm Barents Sea and Kara Sea in the previous autumn), the response of the atmospheric circulation and the regions affected by extremes (e.g., cold spells and snow cover) were rather different during these two winters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of forecasted climate change scenarios, the growth of forest tree species at their distribution margin is crucial to adapt current forest management strategies. Analyses of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) growth have shown high plasticity, but easternmost beech populations have been rarely studied. To describe the response of the marginal beech population to the climate in the far east sites of its distribution, we first compiled new tree ring width chronologies. Then we analyzed climate–growth relationships for three marginal beech populations in the Republic of Moldova. We observed a relatively high growth rate in the marginal populations compared to core distribution sites. Our analyses further revealed a distinct and significant response of beech growth to all climatic variables, assessing for the first time the relationship between growth and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) which described how plant growth responds to drought. These results highlight that accumulated water deficit is an essential limiting factor of beech growth in this region. In conclusion, beech growth in the easternmost marginal population is drought-limited, and the sensitivity to VPD will need to be considered in future studies to update the forest management of other economic and ecologically important species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eastern part of Europe is very poorly represented in the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) database, mainly because the monitoring of the stable isotopes in precipitation started only recently compared with other regions. In this respect, the main objective of this article is to fill the gap in the GNIP database over the eastern part of Europe and show the temporal variability and potential drivers of an extended network of δ18O values in precipitation collected from 27 locations in Romania and the Republic of Moldova. We also present the first high-resolution map of the spatio-temporal distribution of δ18O values in precipitation in Romania and the Republic of Moldova, according to an observational dataset. According to our results, the stations from western and northern Romania tend to have LMWLS with higher values than those from southwestern Romania. The monthly variation of the δ18O and δ2H showed a clearly interannual variation, with distinct seasonal differences, following the seasonal temperatures. The analysis of the spatial distribution of stable isotopes in precipitation water was made on the basis of both observational data and modeled data. This allowed us to study the origin of the air moisture and the interaction with regional and local patterns and to analyze the link between the spatial δ18O variations and the large-scale circulation patterns on a seasonal scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of TiO2 to generate reactive oxygen species under UV radiation makes it an efficient candidate in antimicrobial studies. In this context, the preparation of TiO2 microparticles coated with Ca- and Cu-based composite layers over which Cu(II), Cu(I), and Cu(0) species were identified is presented here. The obtained materials were characterized by a wide range of analytical methods, such as X-ray diffraction, electron microscopy (TEM, SEM), X-ray photoelectron (XPS), and UV-VIS spectroscopy. The antimicrobial efficiency was evaluated using qualitative and quantitative standard methods and standard clinical microbial strains. A significant aspect of this composite is that the antimicrobial properties were evidenced both in the presence and absence of the light, as result of competition between photo and electrical effects. However, the antibacterial effect was similar in darkness and light for all samples. Because no photocatalytic properties were found in the absence of copper, the results sustain the antibacterial effect of the electric field (generated by the electrostatic potential of the composite layer) both under the dark and in light conditions. In this way, the composite layers supported on the TiO2 microparticles' surface can offer continuous antibacterial protection and do not require the presence of a permanent light source for activation. However, the antimicrobial effect in the dark is more significant and is considered to be the result of the electric field effect generated on the composite layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The combined effect of hot and dry extremes can have disastrous consequences for society, the economy, and the environment. While a significant number of studies have been conducted regarding the variability of the individual hot or dry extremes in Romania, the evaluation of the combined effect of these extremes (e.g., compound effect) is still lacking for this region. Thus, in this study, we have assessed the spatiotemporal variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania, between 1950 and 2020, and we have analyzed the relationship between the frequency of hot summers and the prevailing large-scale atmospheric circulation. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves (HWs) in Romania present decadal variations, with the rate of increase being accelerated after the 1990s. The smallest number of HWs was observed between 1970 and 1985, while the highest number of HWs has been recorded over the last 2 decades (i.e., 2001–2020). The hottest years, in terms of heat wave duration and frequency, were 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2019. One of the key drivers of hot summers, over our analyzed region, is the prevailing large-scale circulation, featuring an anticyclonic circulation over the central and eastern parts of Europe and enhanced atmospheric blocking activity associated with positive temperature anomalies underneath. The results from this study can help improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of hot and dry summers over Romania, as well as their driving mechanisms, which might lead to a better predictability of these extreme events in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of evapotranspiration to anthropogenic warming is of critical importance to the water and carbon cycle. Conflicting observations about changes of evapotranspiration stem mostly from the brevity of observations in time and space as well as a high degree of internal variability. Here we present the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer vapour pressure deficit (VPD) for the past four centuries. The gridded reconstruction is based on 26 European tree-ring oxygen isotope records and is performed using a Random Forest approach. Based on our reconstruction, we show that from the mid- 1700s a trend towards higher VPD occurred in Central Europe and the Mediterranean region which is based on the simultaneous increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. This increasing VPD trend continues throughout the observational period and recent times. Climate model projections show this increase in VPD for the Mediterranean region continuing until the end of the 21st century, whereby the extent depends on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, projected VPD in North and Central Europe shows a tendency towards higher VPD only in the highest emission scenario. The reconstructed, observed and modelled VPD for past present and future is available here: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5958837 (Balting, D. F. et al., 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The combined effect of hot and dry extremes can have disastrous consequences for the society, economy, and the environment. While a significant number of studies have been conducted regarding the variability of the individual hot or dry extremes in Romania, the evaluation of the combined effect of these extremes (e.g. compound effect) is still lacking for this region. Thus, in this study we have assessed the spatio-temporal variability and trends of hot and dry summers in the eastern part of Europe, focusing on Romania, between 1950 and 2020 and we have analyzed the relationship between the frequency of hot summers and the prevailing large-scale atmospheric circulation. The length, spatial extent and frequency of HWs in Romania has increased significantly over the last 70 years, while for the drought conditions no significant changes have been observed. The rate of increase in the frequency and spatial extent of HWs has accelerated significantly after the 1990's, while the smallest number of HWs was observed between 1970 and 1985. The hottest years, in terms of heatwave duration and frequency, were 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2019. One of the key drivers of hot summers, over our analyzed region, is the prevailing large-scale circulation, featuring an anticyclonic circulation over the central and eastern parts of Europe and enhanced atmospheric blocking activity associated with positive temperature anomalies underneath. We conclude that our study can help improve our understanding of the spatio-temporal variability of hot and dry summers, especially at the regional scale, as well as their driving mechanisms which might lead to a better predictability of these extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global cloud cover represents a critical component of the climate system, with a considerable impact on the Earth's radiation budget. Small changes in clouds properties have a significant climatological impact because of the feedbacks that they generate, thus it is difficult to simulate the global cloud cover evolution in general circulation models. Observational investigations of cloud processes are constrained either by limited temporal and spatial extension of ground-based measurements or by imperfections in satellite data, like changes in geostationary satellite zenith angle, equatorial crossing time, or calibration. In this study, we used the Empirical Orthogonal Functions method to separate global patterns of total cloud cover variability in two satellite datasets from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and the Pathfinder Atmospheres-Extended projects, each corrected for specific errors, and in the ERA5 Reanalysis. The first two modes explain most of the variance from what could be considered “signal” in both satellite data. Through Canonical Correlation Analysis, they are associated in a physically consistent manner with two different types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the canonical ENSO which manifests itself in the eastern tropical Pacific and the El-Niño Modiki which manifest itself in the central Pacific. This work provides a comprehensive picture of the relationship between global total cloud cover and the tropical Pacific processes and indicates that cloud cover in the Indo-Pacific sector plays a significant role in the Earth radiative budget at interannual to decadal time scales. The similarity of the results across satellite and reanalysis data indicate that the both the observed and reanalysis cloud data sets contain consistent and valuable information related to global climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glaciers worldwide are shrinking at an accelerated rate as the climate changes in response to anthropogenic influence. While increasing air temperature is the main factor behind glacier mass and volume loss, variable patterns of precipitation distribution also play a role, though these are not as well understood. Furthermore, while the response of surface glaciers (from large polar ice sheets to small alpine glaciers) to climatic changes is well documented and continuously monitored, little to nothing is known about how cave glaciers (perennial ice accumulations in rock-hosted caves) react to atmospheric warming. In this context, we present here the response of cave and surface glaciers in SE Europe to the extreme precipitation events occurring between May and July 2019 in SE Europe. Surface glaciers in the northern Balkan Peninsula lost between 17 % and 19 % of their total area, while cave glaciers in Croatia, Greece, Romania and Slovenia lost ice at levels higher than any recorded by instrumental observations during the past decades. The melting was likely the result of large amounts of warm water delivered directly to the surface of the glaciers, leading to rapid reduction in the area of surface glaciers and the thickness of cave glaciers. As climate models predict that such extreme precipitation events are set to increase in frequency and intensity, the presence of cave glaciers in SE Europe and the paleoclimatic information they host may be lost in the near future. Moreover, the same projected continuous warming and increase in precipitation extremes could pose an additional threat to the alpine glaciers in southern Europe, resulting in faster-than-predicted melting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we analyze drought features at the European level over the period 1901–2019 using three drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI). The results based on the SPEI and scPDSI point to the fact that Central Europe (CEU) and the Mediterranean region (MED) are becoming dryer due to an increase in the potential evapotranspiration and mean air temperature, while North Europe (NEU) is becoming wetter. By contrast, the SPI drought does not reveal these changes in the drought variability, mainly due to the fact that the precipitation does not exhibit a significant change, especially over CEU. The SPEI12 indicates a significant increase both in the drought frequency and area over the last three decades for MED and CEU, while SPI12 does not capture these features. Thus, the performance of the SPI may be insufficient for drought analysis studies over regions where there is a strong warming signal. By analyzing the frequency of compound events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts), we show that the potential evapotranspiration and the mean air temperature are becoming essential components for drought occurrence over CEU and MED. This, together with the projected increase in the potential evapotranspiration under a warming climate, has significant implications concerning the future occurrence of drought events, especially for the MED and CEU regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the climate signature of δ18O tree-ring records from sites distributed all over Europe covering the last 400 years. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals two distinct modes of variability on the basis of the existing δ18O tree-ring records. The first mode is associated with anomaly patterns projecting onto the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and reflects a multi-seasonal climatic signal. The ENSO link is pronounced for the last 130 years, but it is found to be weak over the period from 1600 to 1850, suggesting that the relationship between ENSO and the European climate may not be stable over time. The second mode of δ18O variability, which captures a north–south dipole in the European δ18O tree-ring records, is related to a regional summer atmospheric circulation pattern, revealing a pronounced centre over the North Sea. Locally, the δ18O anomalies associated with this mode show the same (opposite) sign with temperature (precipitation). Based on the oxygen isotopic signature derived from tree rings, we argue that the prevailing large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and the related teleconnections can be analysed beyond instrumental records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we analyze the drought features at European level over the period 1901-2019, using three drought indices: the Standardized precipitation (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). The results based on the SPEI and scPDSI indices point out to the fact that central Europe (CEU) and the Mediterranean region (MED) are becoming dryer, due to an increase in the potential evapotranspiration and the mean air temperature, while the northern part of Europe (NEU) is becoming wetter. By contrast, the SPI drought index does not reveal these changes in the drought variability, mainly due to the fact that the precipitation does not exhibit a significant change, especially over CEU. SPEI12 indicates a significant increase both in the frequency and area over the last three decades for MED and CEU, while SPI12 is not capturing these features. By analyzing the joint probability of compound events (e.g. high temperatures/droughts), we show that the potential evapotranspiration and the mean air temperature are becoming essential components for drought occurrence over CEU and MED. This, together with the projected increase in the potential evapotranspiration under a warming climate, has significant implications concerning the future occurrence of drought events, especially for MED and CEU regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2018, large parts of northern Europe were affected by an extreme drought. A better understanding of the characteristics and the large-scale atmospheric circulation driving such events is of high importance to enhance drought forecasting and mitigation. This paper examines the historical extremeness of the May–August 2018 meteorological situation and the accompanying meteorological and hydrological (streamflow and groundwater) drought. Further, it investigates the relation between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and summer streamflow in the Nordic region. In May and July 2018, record-breaking temperatures were observed in large parts of northern Europe associated with blocking systems centred over Fennoscandia and sea surface temperature anomalies of more than 3 ∘ C in the Baltic Sea. Extreme meteorological drought, as indicated by the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3), was observed in May and covered large parts of northern Europe by July. Streamflow drought in the Nordic region started to develop in June, and in July 68 % of the stations had record-low or near-record-low streamflow. Extreme streamflow conditions persisted in the southeastern part of the region throughout 2018. Many groundwater wells had record-low or near-record-low levels in July and August. However, extremeness in groundwater levels and (to a lesser degree) streamflow showed a diverse spatial pattern. This points to the role of local terrestrial processes in controlling the hydrological response to meteorological conditions. Composite analysis of low summer streamflow and 500 mbar geopotential height anomalies revealed two distinct patterns of summer streamflow variability: one in western and northern Norway and one in the rest of the region. Low summer streamflow in western and northern Norway was related to high-pressure systems centred over the Norwegian Sea. In the rest of the Nordic region, low summer streamflow was associated with a high-pressure system over the North Sea and a low-pressure system over Greenland and Russia, resembling the pattern of 2018. This study provides new insight into hydrometeorological aspects of the 2018 northern European drought and identifies large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with summer streamflow drought in the Nordic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of large-scale atmospheric circulation and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in producing extreme flooding and heavy rainfall events in the lower part of the Rhine catchment area is examined in this study. Analysis of the largest 10 floods in the lower Rhine, between 1817 and 2015, shows that all these extreme flood peaks have been preceded up to 7 d in advance by intense moisture transport from the tropical North Atlantic basin in the form of narrow bands also known as atmospheric rivers. Most of the ARs associated with these flood events are embedded in the trailing fronts of the extratropical cyclones. The typical large-scale atmospheric circulation leading to heavy rainfall and flooding in the lower Rhine is characterized by a low pressure center south of Greenland, which migrates toward Europe, and a stable high pressure center over the northern part of Africa and the southern part of Europe and projects on the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. On the days preceding the flood peaks, lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) is observed over the analyzed region, which indicates strong vertical motions and heavy rainfall. Vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) exceeds 600 kg m -1 s -1 for the largest floods, marking these as very strong ARs. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of moisture transport as a driver of extreme flooding in the lower part of the Rhine catchment area, and we show, for the first time, that ARs are a useful tool for the identification of potentially damaging floods in inland Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate of east-central Europe (ECE) is the result of a combination of influences originating in the wider North Atlantic realm, the Mediterranean Sea, and the western Asian and Siberian regions. Previous studies have shown that the complex interplay between the large-scale atmospheric patterns across the region results in strongly dissimilar summer and winter conditions on timescales ranging from decades to millennia. To put these into a wider context, long-term climate reconstructions are required, but, largely due to historical reasons, these are lacking in ECE. We address these issues by presenting a high-resolution, radiocarbon-dated record of summer temperature variations during the last millennium in ECE, based on stable isotope analysis of a 4.84 m long ice core extracted from Focul Viu Ice Cave (Western Carpathians, Romania). Comparisons with both instrumental and proxy-based data indicate that the stable isotope composition of cave ice records the changes in summer air temperature and has a similar temporal evolution to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on decadal to multidecadal timescales, suggesting that changes in the North Atlantic are transferred, likely via atmospheric processes towards the wider Northern Hemisphere. On centennial timescales, the data show little summer temperature differences between the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) in eastern Europe. These findings are contrary to those that show a marked contrast between the two periods in terms of both winter and annual air temperatures, suggesting that cooling during the LIA was primarily the result of wintertime climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse annually resolved tree‐ring stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotopic chronologies from Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) in Romania. The chronologies cover the period between 1876 and 2012 and integrate data from four individual trees from the Calimani Mts in the eastern Carpathians where climatic records are scarce and starts only from 1961. Calibration trials show that the δ13C values correlate with local April–May relative humidity and with regional to larger scale (European) summer precipitation. δ18O correlates significantly with local relative humidity, cloud cover, maximum temperature, as well as European scale drought conditions. In all cases, the climate effects on δ13C values are weaker than those recorded in the δ18O data, with the latter revealing a tendency toward higher (lower) values of δ18O during extremely dry (wet) years. The most striking signal, however, is the strong link between the interannual δ18O variability recorded in the Calimani Mts and large‐scale circulation patterns associated with North Atlantic and Mediteraneean Sea sea surface temperatures. High (low) values of δ18O occur in association with a high (low) pressure system over the central and eastern part of Europe and with a significantly warmer (colder) Mediterranean Sea surface temperature. These results demonstrate the possibility of using tree ring oxygen isotopes from the eastern Carpathians to reconstruct regional drought conditions in eastern Europe on long‐term time scales and larger scale circulation dynamics over the preinstrumental periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the annual variability of δ18O tree ring records from sites distributed all over Europe covering the last 400 years. An Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis reveals two distinct modes of variability on the basis of the existing δ18O tree ring records. The first mode of δ18O variability is associated with anomaly patterns of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and reflects a multi-seasonal climatic signal. The ENSO signal is visible for the last 130 years, but is found weak during the period 1600 to 1850 suggesting that the relationship between ENSO and the European climate may not stable over time. The second mode of δ18O variability, which captures an out-of-phase variability between northwestern and southeastern European δ18O tree ring records, is related to a regional summer atmospheric circulation pattern revealing a pronounced centre over the North Sea. Locally, the δ18O anomalies associated with this mode show the same (opposite) sign with temperature (precipitation). We infer that the investigation of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and related teleconnections far beyond instrumental records can be done with oxygen isotopic signature derived from tree rings. However, the European δ18Ocel tree network needs to be consolidated and updated, as well as additional research on the stationarity of reconstructed climate signals and the stationarity of teleconnections is advisable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent evidence shows that wind‐driven ocean currents, like the western boundary currents, are strongly affected by global warming. However, due to insufficient observations both on temporal and spatial scales, the impact of climate change on large‐scale ocean gyres is still not clear. Here, based on satellite observations of sea surface height and sea surface temperature, we find a consistent poleward shift of the major ocean gyres. Due to strong natural variability, most of the observed ocean gyre shifts are not statistically significant, implying that natural variations may contribute to the observed trends. However, climate model simulations forced with increasing greenhouse gases suggest that the observed shift is most likely to be a response of global warming. The displacement of ocean gyres, which is coupled with the poleward shift of extratropical atmospheric circulation, has broad impacts on ocean heat transport, regional sea level rise, and coastal ocean circulation. Plain Language Summary: Ocean circulation plays a vital role in regulating the weather and climate and supporting marine life. Therefore, it is important to understand whether and how it responds to global warming. However, the available observations are currently sparse and short in duration, making it difficult to track the dynamic changes of large‐scale ocean circulation. Here, we show for the first time, independent satellite observational evidence demonstrating that the large‐scale ocean gyres are moving poleward during the past four decades. Further analysis based on climate models and various other data sets reveal that the poleward shifting of the ocean gyre circulation is most likely to be a consequence of global warming, which so far has not been well recognized by the public and the scientific community. Key Points: Satellite observations show a consistent poleward shift of the major ocean gyres during the past four decadesDue to strong natural variability, most of the observed ocean gyre shifts are not statistically significantClimate model simulations suggest that the observed shift is most likely to be a response to global warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations of the global sea level pressure (SLP) field reflect atmospheric and oceanic influences and have a profound influence on temperature, precipitation and the global carbon cycle. The impact of various forcing factors on this field was investigated mainly based on numerical simulations. Alternatively, here we identify and quantify the influences of various forcing factors on observational, reanalysis and simulated SLP fields. By applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA) on the aforementioned data sets, we separated and quantified the impact of increase CO2 concentration, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and solar forcing on the global SLP field, based on their associations with known footprints on the sea surface temperature (SST). Together, their corresponding SLP spatial structures explain ~ 60% of the observed variance. Whereas the atmospheric CO2 concentration has the most prominent impact on the global SLP field, explaining 28% of variance, ENSO and AO account for 9% each. The solar forcing and AMO explain 7%, respectively 6% of global SLP variance. Similar spatial structures corresponding to the same forcing factors are identified based on the reanalysis SLP data. CCA applied on simulated SLP fields derived from six CMIP5 model simulations captures only the spatial structures of atmospheric CO2 concentration, ENSO, AAO and AO. Such a decomposition of the global pressure field based on a linear combination of coupled SST-SLP pairs provide a reference against which one could validate the performance of general circulation models in simulating the lower atmosphere dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate of East-Central Europe (ECE) is the result of the combination of influences originating in the wider North Atlantic realm, the Mediterranean Sea and Western Asia/Siberia. Climate models suggest that these competing influences will result in difficult to predict responses to the ongoing climatic changes, thus making mitigation and adaptation strategies challenging to devise and implement. Previous studies have shown that the complex interplay between the large-scale atmospheric patterns across the region result in strongly dissimilar summer and winter conditions on time scales ranging from decades to millennia. To put these into a wider context, long term climate reconstructions are required, but, largely due to historical reasons, these are lacking in ECE. We address these issues by presenting a high resolution, precisely dated record of summer temperature variations during the last millennium in ECE, based on stable isotopic analysis performed on a 4.84 m long ice core extracted from Focul Viu Ice Cave (Western Carpathians, Romania). The data shows little summer temperature differences between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age on centennial scales, but with well-expressed minima and maxima occurred synchronously with periods of low and high solar activity. Further, summer temperatures fluctuated with a periodicity similar to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting that solar variability-induced climatic changes were transferred locally by atmospheric processes. Contrary to summer temperatures, winter ones show stronger contrast between the MWP and LIA, thus suggesting that the later were likely an expression of winter climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The region situated between the mountain area and the lowlands in NE Romania (East-Central Europe) is experiencing increased competition for water resources triggered by a growing population, intensification of agriculture, and industrial development. To better understand hydrological cycling processes in the region, a study was conducted using stable isotopes of water and atmospheric trajectory data to characterize regional precipitation and vapour sources derived from the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean and Black Seas, as well as recycled continental moisture, and to assess and partition these contributions to recharge of surface and groundwater. Atmospheric moisture in the lowlands is found to be predominantly delivered along easterly trajectories, while mountainous areas appear to be dominated by North Atlantic Ocean sources, with moisture transported along mid-latitude, westerly storm tracks. Large-scale circulation patterns affect moisture delivery, the North Atlantic Oscillation being particularly influential in winter and the East Atlantic pattern in summer. Winter precipitation is the main contributor to river discharge and aquifer recharge. As winter precipitation amounts are projected to decrease over the next decades, and water abstraction is expected to steadily increase, a general reduction in water availability is projected for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Causal explanations for the 4.2 ka BP event are based on the amalgamation of seasonal and annual records of climate variability that was manifest across global regions dominated by different climatic regimes. However, instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that seasonal climate variability is not always sequential in some regions. The present study investigates the spatial manifestation of the 4.2 ka BP event during the boreal winter season in Eurasia, where climate variability is a function of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the westerly winds. We present a multi-proxy reconstruction of winter climate conditions in Europe, west Asia, and northern Africa between 4.3 and 3.8 ka. Our results show that, while winter temperatures were cold throughout the region, precipitation amounts had a heterogeneous distribution, with regionally significant low values in W Asia, SE Europe, and N Europe and local high values in the N Balkan Peninsula, the Carpathian Mountains, and E and NE Europe. Further, strong northerly winds were dominating in the Middle East and E and NE Europe. Analyzing the relationships between these climatic conditions, we hypothesize that in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the 4.2 ka BP event was caused by the strengthening and expansion of the Siberian High, which effectively blocked the moisture-carrying westerlies from reaching W Asia and enhanced outbreaks of cold and dry winds in that region. The behavior of the winter and summer monsoons suggests that when parts of Asia and Europe were experiencing winter droughts, SE Asia was experiencing similar summer droughts, resulting from failed and/or reduced monsoons. Thus, while in the extratropical regions of Eurasia the 4.2 ka BP event was a century-scale winter phenomenon, in the monsoon-dominated regions it may have been a feature of summer climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice in both polar regions is an important indicator of the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, broad interest exists on sea ice coverage, variability and long-term change. However, its predictability is complex and it depends strongly on different atmospheric and oceanic parameters. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal of sea ice evolution, we applied a robust statistical model based on different oceanic and atmospheric parameters to calculate an estimate of the September sea ice extent (SSIE) on a monthly timescale. Although previous statistical attempts of monthly/seasonal SSIE forecasts show a relatively reduced skill, when the trend is removed, we show here that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the SSIE and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive/critical regions in global coupled climate models with a focus on sea ice formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Causal explanations for the 4.2 ka BP event are based on the amalgamation of seasonal and annual records of climate variability manifest across global regions dominated by different climatic regimes. However, instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that seasonal climate variability is not always sequential in some regions. The present study investigates the spatial manifestation of the 4.2 ka BP event during the boreal winter season in Eurasia, where climate variability is a function of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the westerly winds. We present a multi-proxy reconstruction of winter climate conditions in Europe, west Asia and northern Africa between 4.3 and 3.8 ka BP using. Our results show that, while winter temperatures were cold throughout the region, precipitation amounts had a heterogeneous distribution, with regionally significant low values in W Asia, SE and N Europe and local high values in the N Balkan Peninsula, the Carpathian Mountains, and E and NE Europe. Further, strong northerly winds were dominating in the Middle East, and E and NE Europe. Analyzing the relationships between these climatic conditions, we hypothesize that in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the 4.2 ka BP event was caused by the strengthening and expansion of the Siberian High, which effectively blocked the moisture-carrying westerlies from reaching W Asia, and enhanced outbreaks of cold and dry winds in that region. The antiphase behavior of the winter and summer monsoons suggests that when parts of Asia and Europe were experiencing winter droughts, SE Asia was experiencing similar summer droughts, resulting from failed and/or reduced monsoons. Thus, while in the extratropical regions of Eurasia the 4.2 ka BP event was a century-scale winter phenomenon, in the monsoon-dominated regions it may have been a feature of summer climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]