1. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.
- Author
-
Xu, Peng, Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria, Rood, Mark J., and Luan, Shengji
- Subjects
- *
LIVESTOCK wholesalers , *LIVESTOCK inspection , *LIVESTOCK distributors , *RANGE management , *ANIMAL culture - Abstract
China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1 km × 1 km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3 Tg NH 3 ·yr − 1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6 Tg NH 3 ·yr − 1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3 Tg·yr − 1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr − 1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9 Tg NH 3 ·yr − 1 (11.5–16.3 Tg NH 3 ·yr − 1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9–37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF