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BACKGROUND: In rebalancing from nursing homes (NHs), states are increasing access of NH-certified dually eligible (Medicare/Medicaid) patients to community waiver programs and Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Prior evaluations suggest Medicaid's PACE capitation exceeds its spending for comparable admissions in alternative care, although the latter may be underestimated. We test whether Medicaid payments to PACE are lower than predicted fee-for-service outlays in a long-term care admission cohort. METHODS: Using grade-of-membership methods, we model health deficits for dual eligibles aged 55 or more entering waiver, PACE, and NH in South Carolina (n = 3,988). Clinical types, membership vectors, and program type prevalences are estimated. We calculate a blend, fitting PACE between fee-for-service cohorts, whose postadmission 1-year utilization was converted to attrition-adjusted outlays. PACE's capitation is compared with blend-based expenditure predictions. RESULTS: Four clinical types describe population health deficits/service needs. The waiver cohort is most represented in the least impaired type (1: 47.1%), NH entrants in the most disabled (4: 38.5%). Most prevalent in PACE was a dementia type, 3 (32.7%). PACE's blend was waiver: 0.5602 (95% CI: 0.5472, 0.5732) and NH: 0.4398 (0.4268, 0.4528). Average Medicaid attrition-adjusted 1-year payments for waiver and NH were $4,177 and $77,945. The mean predicted cost for PACE patients in alternative long-term care was $36,620 ($35,662 and $37,580). PACE's Medicaid capitation was $27,648-28% below the lower limit of predicted fee-for-service payments. CONCLUSIONS: PACE's capitation was well under outlays for equivalent patients in alternative care-a substantial savings for Medicaid. Our methods provide a rate-setting element for PACE and other managed long-term care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of pharmacologic treatment of high blood cholesterol levels. Agents modeled were cholestyramine, colestipol, gemfibrozil, lovastatin, niacin, and probucol. Pharmacologic effectiveness was estimated from reported studies. Cost estimates reflect societal resource consumption. Annual costs for therapy ranged from $327 (niacin) to $1881 (lovastatin, 80 mg/d). Niacin was the most efficient agent for reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, having an average cost over 5 years of $139 per percent reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level. Lovastatin (20 mg/d) was also efficient ($177 per percent reduction). Cholestyramine was least efficient at $347. For high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, niacin was most efficient, at $116 per percent increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, followed by gemfibrozil at $271. Analyses combining low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol effects suggest that niacin and lovastatin (20 mg/d) were most efficient for reducing cardiovascular risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To do a meta-analysis of studies that have evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in adults. Evaluating the performance of PCR is difficult because in certain clinical situations, the sensitivity or specificity of PCR may exceed those of the current reference standard tests (enzyme immunoassay followed by confirmatory Western blot analysis). Therefore, an additional goal was to develop recommendations for 1) the design of future evaluative studies of PCR and 2) the use of PCR in persons with suspected HIV infection.Data Sources: Studies published between 1988 and 1994 that were identified in a search of 17 computer databases, including MEDLINE, and abstracts identified from conference proceedings.Study Selection: Studies were included if DNA amplification by PCR was done on peripheral blood mononuclear cells from adults. Ninety-six studies met the inclusion criteria.Data Extraction: Data were extracted independently by two reviewers. Study design was assessed independently by two investigators blinded to study results.Results: Reported sensitivities for PCR range from 10% to 100%, and specificities range from 40% to 100%. A summary receiver-operating characteristic curve based on all 96 studies has a maximum joint sensitivity and specificity (upper left point on the curve, where sensitivity equals specificity) of 97.0% to 98.1%. If the threshold value that defines a positive PCR result is chosen so that sensitivity is higher than 98.1%, specificity will decrease to less than 98.1%. Conversely, if the threshold value that defines a positive PCR result is chosen so that specificity is greater than 98.1%, sensitivity will decrease to less than 98.1%. If sensitivity and specificity are chosen to be equal, the corresponding false-positive rate is 1.9% to 3.0%. At the maximum joint sensitivity and specificity, the positive predictive value of PCR ranges from 34% to 85% as the prevalence of HIV increases from 1.0% to 10%. We identified seven areas in which study design could be modified to 1) reduce susceptibility to bias in estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of PCR and 2) to increase the generalizability of the study results. These modifications will also help to overcome methodologic problems created by the lack of a reference standard test.Conclusions: The PCR assay is not sufficiently accurate to be used for the diagnosis of HIV infection without confirmation. Use of PCR for the diagnosis of HIV in adults should be limited to situations in which antibody tests are known to be insufficient. Future studies of PCR performance should be sufficiently large and should use adequate reference standard tests and standardized methods for the performance of PCR. Specimens should be evaluated by persons blinded to clinical status and to the results of other diagnostic tests for HIV infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Comparison of four measures of cholesterol for predicting men and women who will develop coronary heart disease within 8 to 10 years.Design: Cohort study.Patients: 1898 men who received placebo (the placebo group of the Lipid Research Clinics [LRC] Coronary Primary Prevention Trial [CPPT]), 1025 men and 1442 women who participated in the 1970-1971 Framingham Heart Study biennial examination, and 1911 men and 1767 women without coronary heart disease who were from the LRC Population Prevalence Study.Measurements: Total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and the ratio of LDL to HDL. Outcomes were coronary heart disease in the CPPT and Framingham studies and death from coronary heart disease in the Prevalence Study.Results: Independent information in the total cholesterol/HDL ratio added risk-discriminating ability to total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol measures (P < 0.02), but the reverse was not true. Among women, a high-risk threshold of 5.6 for the total cholesterol/HDL ratio identified a 0% to 15% larger group at 25% to 45% greater risk in the Prevalence and Framingham studies, respectively, than did current guidelines. Among men in the same studies, a risk threshold of 6.4 for the total cholesterol/HDL ratio identified a 69% to 95% larger group at 2% to 14% greater risk than did LDL cholesterol levels alone. Eight-year likelihood ratios for coronary heart disease ranged from 0.32 to 3.11 in men and from 0.59 to 2.98 in women for total cholesterol/HDL ratios (grouped from < 3 to > or = 9).Conclusions: The total cholesterol/HDL ratio is a superior measure of risk for coronary heart disease compared with either total cholesterol or LDL cholesterol levels. Current practice guidelines could be more efficient if risk stratification was based on this ratio rather than primarily on the LDL cholesterol level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A decision analytic model was used to examine alternative strategies to screen donated blood for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) using data from the literature and from 1987 blood-screening programs in areas with high and low prevalence of HIV. Sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainties about HIV infection and test performance. Current screening strategies are estimated to allow 20.5 infected units per million donated units to be transfused at a cost of $16,850 per HIV-positive unit detected in high-prevalence areas and 4.7 infected units per million donated units to be transfused at a cost of $32,275 per HIV-positive unit detected in low prevalence areas, with nine false-positive notifications of uninfected patients per million units screened and 14.9 discarded, noninfected units per HIV-positive unit in low-prevalence areas. Testing donated blood for HIV can be improved by individualizing screening strategies for areas with different prevalences of HIV. Efforts to further reduce transfusion-associated HIV should focus on improved test performance in early stages of infection, reduction of unnecessary transfusions, donor recruitment in lower-risk groups, and public health measures to reduce HIV infection among the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Opinion. Comments on the revised guidelines issued by the American College of Physicians (ACP) regarding the screening of blood cholesterol levels. Why there is insufficient evidence to recommend high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol; What the value of determining HDL cholesterol for risk stratification is based on; Suggestion that triglycerides should not be routinely screened for preventing coronary disease.