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Accurate electrical load forecasting is of great importance for the efficient operation and control of modern power systems. In this work, a hybrid long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model with online correction is developed for day-ahead electrical load forecasting. Firstly, four types of features are extracted from the original electrical load dataset, including the historical time series, time index features, historical statistical features, and similarity features. Then, a hybrid LSTM-based electrical load forecasting model is designed, where an LSTM neural network block and a fully-connected neural network block are integrated that can model both temporal features (historical time series) and non-temporal features (the rest features). A gradient regularization-based offline training algorithm and an output layer parameter fine-tuning-based online model correction method are developed to enhance the model's capabilities to defend against disturbance and adapt to the latest load data distribution, thus improving the forecasting accuracy. At last, extensive experiments are carried out to validate the effectiveness of the proposed electrical load forecasting strategy with superior accuracy compared with commonly used forecasting models.

Corruption is notoriously widespread in data collection. Despite extensive research, the existing literature on corruption predominantly focuses on specific settings and learning scenarios, lacking a unified view. There is still a limited understanding of how to effectively model and mitigate corruption in machine learning problems. In this work, we develop a general theory of corruption from an information-theoretic perspective - with Markov kernels as a foundational mathematical tool. We generalize the definition of corruption beyond the concept of distributional shift: corruption includes all modifications of a learning problem, including changes in model class and loss function. We will focus here on changes in probability distributions. First, we construct a provably exhaustive framework for pairwise Markovian corruptions. The framework not only allows us to study corruption types based on their input space, but also serves to unify prior works on specific corruption models and establish a consistent nomenclature. Second, we systematically analyze the consequences of corruption on learning tasks by comparing Bayes risks in the clean and corrupted scenarios. This examination sheds light on complexities arising from joint and dependent corruptions on both labels and attributes. Notably, while label corruptions affect only the loss function, more intricate cases involving attribute corruptions extend the influence beyond the loss to affect the hypothesis class. Third, building upon these results, we investigate mitigations for various corruption types. We expand the existing loss-correction results for label corruption, and identify the necessity to generalize the classical corruption-corrected learning framework to a new paradigm with weaker requirements. Within the latter setting, we provide a negative result for loss correction in the attribute and the joint corruption case., Comment: 56 pages

Distribution shift (DS) may have two levels: the distribution itself changes, and the support (i.e., the set where the probability density is non-zero) also changes. When considering the support change between the training and test distributions, there can be four cases: (i) they exactly match; (ii) the training support is wider (and thus covers the test support); (iii) the test support is wider; (iv) they partially overlap. Existing methods are good at cases (i) and (ii), while cases (iii) and (iv) are more common nowadays but still under-explored. In this paper, we generalize importance weighting (IW), a golden solver for cases (i) and (ii), to a universal solver for all cases. Specifically, we first investigate why IW might fail in cases (iii) and (iv); based on the findings, we propose generalized IW (GIW) that could handle cases (iii) and (iv) and would reduce to IW in cases (i) and (ii). In GIW, the test support is split into an in-training (IT) part and an out-of-training (OOT) part, and the expected risk is decomposed into a weighted classification term over the IT part and a standard classification term over the OOT part, which guarantees the risk consistency of GIW. Then, the implementation of GIW consists of three components: (a) the split of validation data is carried out by the one-class support vector machine, (b) the first term of the empirical risk can be handled by any IW algorithm given training data and IT validation data, and (c) the second term just involves OOT validation data. Experiments demonstrate that GIW is a universal solver for DS problems, outperforming IW methods in cases (iii) and (iv)., Comment: NeurIPS 2023 camera-ready version (this paper was selected for spotlight presentation)

Recent years have witnessed a great success of supervised deep learning, where predictive models were trained from a large amount of fully labeled data. However, in practice, labeling such big data can be very costly and may not even be possible for privacy reasons. Therefore, in this paper, we aim to learn an accurate classifier without any class labels. More specifically, we consider the case where multiple sets of unlabeled data and only their class priors, i.e., the proportions of each class, are available. Under this problem setup, we first derive an unbiased estimator of the classification risk that can be estimated from the given unlabeled sets and theoretically analyze the generalization error of the learned classifier. We then find that the classifier obtained as such tends to cause overfitting as its empirical risks go negative during training. To prevent overfitting, we further propose a partial risk regularization that maintains the partial risks with respect to unlabeled datasets and classes to certain levels. Experiments demonstrate that our method effectively mitigates overfitting and outperforms state-of-the-art methods for learning from multiple unlabeled sets., Comment: ACML 2022 camera-ready version

Supervised federated learning (FL) enables multiple clients to share the trained model without sharing their labeled data. However, potential clients might even be reluctant to label their own data, which could limit the applicability of FL in practice. In this paper, we show the possibility of unsupervised FL whose model is still a classifier for predicting class labels, if the class-prior probabilities are shifted while the class-conditional distributions are shared among the unlabeled data owned by the clients. We propose federation of unsupervised learning (FedUL), where the unlabeled data are transformed into surrogate labeled data for each of the clients, a modified model is trained by supervised FL, and the wanted model is recovered from the modified model. FedUL is a very general solution to unsupervised FL: it is compatible with many supervised FL methods, and the recovery of the wanted model can be theoretically guaranteed as if the data have been labeled. Experiments on benchmark and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of FedUL. Code is available at https://github.com/lunanbit/FedUL., Comment: ICLR 2022 camera-ready version

One of the central goals of the physics program at the future colliders is to elucidate the origin of electroweak symmetry breaking, including precision measurements of the Higgs sector. This includes a detailed study of Higgs boson (H) pair production, which can reveal the H self-coupling. Since the discovery of the Higgs boson, a large campaign of measurements of the properties of the Higgs boson has begun and many new ideas have emerged during the completion of this program. One such idea is the use of highly boosted and merged hadronic decays of the Higgs boson ($\mathrm{H}\to\mathrm{b}\bar{\mathrm{b}}$, $\mathrm{H}\to\mathrm{W}\mathrm{W}\to\mathrm{q}\bar{\mathrm{q}}\mathrm{q}\bar{\mathrm{q}}$) with machine learning methods to improve the signal-to-background discrimination. In this white paper, we champion the use of these modes to boost the sensitivity of future collider physics programs to Higgs boson pair production, the Higgs self-coupling, and Higgs-vector boson couplings. We demonstrate the potential improvement possible at the Future Circular Collider in hadron mode, especially with the use of graph neural networks., Comment: Contribution to Snowmass 2022 Summer Study

A key assumption in supervised learning is that training and test data follow the same probability distribution. However, this fundamental assumption is not always satisfied in practice, e.g., due to changing environments, sample selection bias, privacy concerns, or high labeling costs. Transfer learning (TL) relaxes this assumption and allows us to learn under distribution shift. Classical TL methods typically rely on importance-weighting -- a predictor is trained based on the training losses weighted according to the importance (i.e., the test-over-training density ratio). However, as real-world machine learning tasks are becoming increasingly complex, high-dimensional, and dynamical, novel approaches are explored to cope with such challenges recently. In this article, after introducing the foundation of TL based on importance-weighting, we review recent advances based on joint and dynamic importance-predictor estimation. Furthermore, we introduce a method of causal mechanism transfer that incorporates causal structure in TL. Finally, we discuss future perspectives of TL research.