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Abstract This study evaluates the impact of hydroclimate-driven periodic runoff on hydropower operations and production, with a focus on how the forecasted biennial periodicity of runoff time series could affect the efficiency of hydropower generation. Hydrologic stochastic processes are utilized to forecast long-term runoff, and seven hydroclimate scenarios are developed to be input into a production management model, allowing for an analysis of how periodic hydroclimate variations influence hydropower management and output. The results reveal that the biennial alternation between wet and dry years is a key factor affecting hydropower operations in the Dalälven River Basin. Notable differences between wet- and dry-year scenarios were observed in terms of power efficiency, production output, and forecasting accuracy. Operating hydropower systems based on dry-year runoff forecasts in wet years results in a 1.63% decrease in production efficiency and a reduction of 9,104 MWh in power generation. Conversely, applying wet-year forecasts in dry years slightly boosts production efficiency by 0.31% and increases power generation by 7,832 MWh. Scenarios that adhere to biennial periodicity offer the highest forecasting accuracy, particularly when applying dry-year forecasts in dry years in winter and spring, which produce the most precise predictions. In contrast, using dry-year forecasts in wet years results in the lowest forecasting accuracy.

Developing and implementing climate adaptation measures in complex socio-ecological systems can lead to unintended consequences, especially when those systems are undergoing rapid hydro-climatic and socio-economic change. In these dynamic contexts, a systemic approach can make the difference between adaptive and maladaptive outcomes. This paper focuses on the use of climate services, often touted as no-regret solutions, and their potential to generate maladaptation. We explored the interactions between climate services and adaptation/maladaptation across five case studies affected by different types of natural hazards and characterized by a range of hydro-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Using system archetypes, we show how climate services can play a role in both producing and preventing maladaptation. The dynamics explored through system archetypes are: i) “fixes that fail”, where short-sighted solutions fail to address the root causes of a problem; ii) “band aid solutions”, where the benefits brought about in the short-term come at the expenses of delaying long-term adaptive actions; and iii) “success to the successful”, where some groups increasingly benefit from climate services at the expenses of other groups. We demonstrate how these dynamics constitute maladaptive processes, as well as identifying the tools and theories that can be used in this type of assessment. Finally, we provide a framework and recommendations to guide the ex-ante assessment of maladaptation risk when designing and implementing climate services.

Mediterranean water-stressed areas face significant challenges from higher temperatures and increasingly severe droughts. We assess the effect of climate change on rainfed barley production in the aridity-prone province of Almería, Spain, using the FAO AquaCrop model. We focus on rainfed barley growth by the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100) time periods, using three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using the paired t-test, Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, and relative Root Mean Squared Error, we verified AquaCrop’s ability to capture local multi-year trends (9 or more years) using standard barley crop parameters, without local recalibration. Starting with a reference Initial Soil Water Content (ISWC), different soil water contents within barley rooting depth were modelled to account for decreases in soil water availability. We then evaluated the efficiency of different climate adaptation strategies: irrigation, mulching, and changing sowing dates. We show average yield changes of +14% to −44.8% (mid-century) and +12% to −55.1% (end-century), with ISWC being the main factor determining yields. Irrigation increases yields by 21.1%, utilizing just 3% of Almería’s superficial water resources. Mulches improve irrigated yield performances by 6.9% while reducing irrigation needs by 40%. Changing sowing dates does not consistently improve yields. We demonstrate that regardless of the scenario used, climate adaptation of field barley production in Almería should prioritize limiting soil water loss by combining irrigation with mulching. This would enable farmers in Almería’s northern communities to maintain their livelihoods, reducing the province’s reliance on horticulture while continuing to contribute to food security goals.

The effects of land use alteration, migration and urbanization are key aspects in flood management, as human activities can strongly influence the capacity of ecosystems to provide flood regulating ecosystem services and determine their demand.This study analyzes spatio–temporal dynamics of flood regulating ecosystem services to support watershed management planning. A methodology for mapping the supply and demand of flood regulation is proposed and applied to the Arno River basin, in central Italy. The spatial explicit analysis of flood regulating ecosystem services supply is carried out with SWAT - Soil and Water Assessment Tool, whose outputs are synthetized by two indicators to evaluate the retention capacity of each land use class originating from CORINE data sets. Quantification of demand for flood regulating ecosystem services is based on flood hazard classes derived from the existing local flood management plans (i.e., PAI-Piano per l’Assetto Idrogeologico and PGRA-Piano di Gestione del Rischio Alluvioni). Supply and demand data are then combined to obtain budget maps of flood regulating ecosystem services and their evolution, between 1990 and 2018. The results show how both demand and supply of ecosystem services have changed in the last decades, highlighting the main hotspots at the catchment and sub-catchment scales. With the increasing urbanization, the demand values have grown in the Arno floodplains, where residential, industrial and commercial zones are located. At the same time, land use changes have altered the water regulation supply, resulting in a generalized decrease of the basin capacity to provide flood regulation services. The maps and tables obtained show the fundamental role of forest and other vegetated areas whose protection is a priority to assure future flood regulation and associated co-benefits (e.g., regulation of air quality, reduction of erosion, improvement of water quality, wood fuel). The assessment of flood regulating here proposed is a powerful tool for decision makers to improve flood regulation and provides a sound base of knowledge to identify and locate flood prevention and mitigation measures.

Our multifaceted society calls for engineers that are not only experts in their domain, but possess the flexibility to understand adjacent disciplines. The inclusion of the performing arts in engineering curricula has shown potential for cultivating creativity and equipping STEM students with problem-solving abilities. However, the literature offers limited examples of such integration in engineering courses. We present a unique learning experience involving engineering students from the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) and circus students from Bachelor's programme in Circus at Stockholm School of the Arts (SKH). Grounded in the concepts of "docendo discimus, presentational dimension" of circus and "reflective thinking," our study aimed to: (1) explore engineering students' acceptance of an unconventional collaboration with circus peers; and (2) assess the pedagogical value of this collaboration for the engineering students. We highlight challenges and potentialities of this collaboration, to inform educators interested in creative teaching approaches.