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Summary: Background: The cost of population-based surveys is high and obtaining funding for a national population-based survey may take several years, with follow-up surveys taking up to five years. Survey-based prevalence estimates are prone to bias owing to survey non-participation, as not all individuals eligible to participate in a survey may be reached, and some of those who are contacted do not consent to HIV testing. This study describes how Bayesian statistical modeling may be used to estimate HIV prevalence at the state level in a reliable and timely manner. Methods: We analysed national HIV testing services (HTS) data for Nigeria from October 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021, to derive state-level HIV seropositivity rates. We used a Bayesian linear model with normal prior distribution and Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate HIV state-level prevalence for the 36 states +1 FCT in Nigeria. Our outcome variable was the HIV seropositivity rates and we adjusted for demographic, economic, biological, and societal covariates collected from the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS), 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and 2016-17 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). The estimated population of 15–49 years olds in each state was multiplied by estimates from the estimated prevalence to generate state-level HIV burden. Findings: Our estimated national HIV prevalence was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.5–2.7%) among adults aged 15–49 years in Nigeria, which corresponds to approximately 2 million people living with HIV, compared to previous national HIV prevalence estimates of 1.4% from the 2018 NAIIS and UNAIDS estimation and projection package PLHIV estimation of 1.8 million in 2022. Our modelled HIV prevalence in Nigeria varies by state, with Benue (5.7%, 95% CI: 5.0–6.3) having the highest prevalence, followed by Rivers (5.2%, 95% CI: 4.6–5.8%), Akwa Ibom (3.5%, 95% CI: 2.9–4.1%), Edo (3.4%, 95% CI: 2.9–4.0%) and Taraba (3.0%, 95% CI: 2.6–3.7%) placing fourth and fifth, respectively. Jigawa had the lowest HIV prevalence (0.3%), which was consistent with prior estimates. Interpretation: This model provides a comprehensive and flexible use of evidence to estimate state-level HIV seroprevalence for Nigeria using program data and adjusting for explanatory variables. Thus, investment in program data for HIV surveillance will provide reliable estimates for HIV sub-national monitoring and improve planning and interventions for epidemiologic control. Funding: This article was made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).

Abstract Background Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) that rely on the detection of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) have become key tools for diagnosing P. falciparum infection. The utility of RDTs can be limited by PfHRP2 persistence, however it can be a potential benefit in low transmission settings where detection of persistent PfHRP2 using newer ultra-sensitive PfHRP2 based RDTs can serve as a surveillance tool to identify recent exposure. Better understanding of the dynamics of PfHRP2 over the course of a malaria infection can inform optimal use of RDTs. Methods A previously published mathematical model was refined to mimic the production and decay of PfHRP2 during a malaria infection. Data from 15 individuals from volunteer infection studies were used to update the original model and estimate key model parameters. The refined model was applied to a cohort of patients from Namibia who received treatment for clinical malaria infection for whom longitudinal PfHRP2 concentrations were measured. Results The refinement of the PfHRP2 dynamic model indicated that in malaria naïve hosts, P. falciparum parasites of the 3D7 strain produce 33.6 × 10−15 g (95% CI 25.0–42.1 × 10−15 g) of PfHRP2 in vivo per parasite replication cycle, with an elimination half-life of 1.67 days (95% CI 1.11–3.40 days). The refined model included these updated parameters and incorporated individualized body fluid volume calculations, which improved predictive accuracy when compared to the original model. The performance of the model in predicting clearance of PfHRP2 post treatment in clinical samples from six adults with P. falciparum infection in Namibia improved when using a longer elimination half-life of 4.5 days, with 14% to 67% of observations for each individual within the predicted range. Conclusions The updated mathematical model can predict the growth and clearance of PfHRP2 during the production and decay of a mono-infection with P. falciparum, increasing the understanding of PfHRP2 antigen dynamics. This model can guide the optimal use of PfHRP2-based RDTs for reliable diagnosis of P. falciparum infection and re-infection in endemic settings, but also for malaria surveillance and elimination programmes in low transmission areas.

Abstract Background Plasmodium vivax malaria elimination can only be achieved by the deployment of 8-aminoquinolines (primaquine and tafenoquine) in combination with ACT to kill both blood and liver-stage parasites. However, primaquine and the other 8-aminoquinolines cause dose-dependent haemolysis in subjects with G6PD deficiency, an X-linked disorder of red blood cells that is very common in populations living in tropical and subtropical areas. In order to inform safer use of 8-aminoquinolines in the Greater Mekong Subregion, a multi-centre study was carried out to assess the prevalence of G6PD deficiency and to identify the main G6PD variants in samples collected in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Methods Blood samples were collected in the five countries during National Malaria Surveys or during Population Surveys. During Population Surveys samples were characterized for G6PD phenotype using the Fluorescent Spot Test. Samples were then genotyped for a panel of G6PD mutations. Results G6PD deficiency was found to be common in the region with an overall mean prevalence of deficient or mutated hemizygous males of 14.0%, ranging from a mean 7.3% in Thailand, 8.1% in Lao PDR, 8.9% in Vietnam, 15.8% in Myanmar and 18.8% in Cambodia. Mahidol and Viangchan mutations were the most common and widespread variants found among the nine investigated. Conclusions Owing to the high prevalence of G6PD deficiency in the Greater Mekong Subregion, strategies for vivax malaria elimination should include point-of-care G6PD testing (both qualitative and quantitative) to allow safe and wide treatment with 8-aminoquinolines.

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is an intestinal disorder common among children in low-resource settings and is associated with increased risk of growth stunting, cognitive deficits, and reduced oral vaccine immunogenicity. The Micronutrient and EED Assessment Tool (MEEDAT) is a multiplexed immunoassay that measures biomarkers previously associated with child growth faltering and/or oral vaccine immunogenicity: intestinal fatty acid-binding protein (I-FABP), soluble CD14 (sCD14), insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), and fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21). MEEDAT also measures systemic inflammation (α1-acid glycoprotein, C-reactive protein), ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor, retinol binding protein 4, thyroglobulin, and Plasmodium falciparum antigenemia (histidine-rich protein 2). The performance of MEEDAT was compared with commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) using 300 specimens from Malian infant clinical trial participants. Regression methods were used to test if MEEDAT biomarkers were associated with seroconversion to meningococcal A conjugate vaccine (MenAV), yellow fever vaccine (YFV), and pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (PRV) after 28 days, or with growth faltering over 12 weeks. The Pearson correlations between the MEEDAT and ELISA results were 0.97, 0.86, 0.80, and 0.97 for serum I-FABP, sCD14, IGF-1, and FGF21, respectively. There were significant associations between I-FABP concentration and the probability of PRV IgG seroconversion and between IGF-1 concentration and the probability of YFV seroconversion. In multivariable models neither association remained significant, however there was a significant negative association between AGP concentration and YFV seroconversion. GLP-2 and sCD14 concentrations were significantly negatively associated with 12-week change in weight-for-age z-score and weight-for-height z-score in multivariable models. MEEDAT performed well in comparison to commercially-available ELISAs for the measurement of four analytes for EED and growth hormone resistance. Adoption of MEEDAT in low-resource settings could help accelerate the identification of interventions that prevent or treat child stunting and interventions that boost the immunogenicity of child vaccinations.

Abstract Background Since 2005, Ethiopia has aggressively scaled up malaria prevention and case management. As a result, the number of malaria cases and deaths has significantly declined. In order to track progress towards the elimination of malaria in Amhara Region, coverage of malaria control tools and current malaria transmission need to be documented. Methods A cross-sectional household survey oversampling children under 5 years of age was conducted during the dry season in 2013. A bivalent rapid diagnostic test (RDT) detecting both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax and serology assays using merozoite antigens from both these species were used to assess the prevalence of malaria infections and exposure to malaria parasites in 16 woredas (districts) in Amhara Region. Results 7878 participants were included, with a mean age of 16.8 years (range 0.5–102.8 years) and 42.0% being children under 5 years of age. The age-adjusted RDT-positivity for P. falciparum and P. vivax infection was 1.5 and 0.4%, respectively, of which 0.05% presented as co-infections. Overall age-adjusted seroprevalence was 30.0% for P. falciparum, 21.8% for P. vivax, and seroprevalence for any malaria species was 39.4%. The prevalence of RDT-positive infections varied by woreda, ranging from 0.0 to 8.3% and by altitude with rates of 3.2, 0.7, and 0.4% at under 2000, 2000–2500, and >2500 m, respectively. Serological analysis showed heterogeneity in transmission intensity by area and altitude and evidence for a change in the force of infection in the mid-2000s. Conclusions Current and historic malaria transmission across Amhara Region show substantial variation by age and altitude with some settings showing very low or near-zero transmission. Plasmodium vivax infections appear to be lower but relatively more stable across geography and altitude, while P. falciparum is the dominant infection in the higher transmission, low-altitude areas. Age-dependent seroprevalence analyses indicates a drop in transmission occurred in the mid-2000s, coinciding with malaria control scale-up efforts. As malaria parasitaemia rates get very low with elimination efforts, serological evaluation may help track progress to elimination.

Infectious disease nucleic acid amplification technologies (NAAT) have superior sensitivity, specificity, and rapid time to result compared to traditional microbiological methods. Recovery of concentrated, high quality pathogen nucleic acid (NA) from complex specimen matrices is required for optimal performance of several NA amplification/detection technologies such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Fully integrated NAAT platforms that enable rapid sample-to-result workflows with minimal user input are generally restricted to larger reference lab settings, and their complexity and cost are prohibitive to widespread implementation in resource limited settings (RLS). Identification of component technologies for incorporation of reliable and affordable sample preparation with pathogen NA amplification/detection into an integrated platform suitable for RLS, is a necessary first step toward achieving the overarching goal of reducing infectious disease-associated morbidity and mortality globally. In the current study, we evaluate the performance of six novel NA extraction technologies from different developers using blinded panels of stool, sputum and blood spiked with variable amounts of quality-controlled DNA- and/or RNA-based microbes. The extraction efficiencies were semi-quantitatively assessed using validated real-time reverse transcription (RT)-PCR assays specific for each microbe and comparing target-specific RT-PCR results to those obtained with reference NA extraction methods. The technologies were ranked based on overall diagnostic accuracy (analytical sensitivity and specificity). Sample input and output volumes, total processing time, user-required manual steps and cost estimates were also examined for suitability in RLS. Together with the performance analysis, these metrics were used to select the more suitable candidate technologies for further optimization of integrated NA amplification and detection technologies for RLS.

As effective onchocerciasis control efforts in Africa transition to elimination efforts, different diagnostic tools are required to support country programs. Senegal, with its long standing, successful control program, is transitioning to using the SD BIOLINE Onchocerciasis IgG4 (Ov16) rapid test over traditional skin snip microscopy. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating the Ov16 rapid test into onchocerciasis surveillance activities in Senegal, based on the following attributes of acceptability, usability, and cost. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 13 villages in southeastern Senegal in May 2016. Individuals 5 years and older were invited to participate in a demographic questionnaire, an Ov16 rapid test, a skin snip biopsy, and an acceptability interview. Rapid test technicians were interviewed and a costing analysis was conducted. Of 1,173 participants, 1,169 (99.7%) agreed to the rapid test while 383 (32.7%) agreed to skin snip microscopy. The sero-positivity rate of the rapid test among those tested was 2.6% with zero positives 10 years and younger. None of the 383 skin snips were positive for Ov microfilaria. Community members appreciated that the rapid test was performed quickly, was not painful, and provided reliable results. The total costs for this surveillance activity was $22,272.83, with a cost per test conducted at $3.14 for rapid test, $7.58 for skin snip microscopy, and $13.43 for shared costs. If no participants had refused skin snip microscopy, the total cost per method with shared costs would have been around $16 per person tested. In this area with low onchocerciasis sero-positivity, there was high acceptability and perceived value of the rapid test by community members and technicians. This study provides evidence of the feasibility of implementing the Ov16 rapid test in Senegal and may be informative to other country programs transitioning to Ov16 serologic tools.

Deficiencies of vitamin A, iron, and iodine are major public health concerns in many low- and middle-income countries, but information on their status in populations is often lacking due to high costs and logistical challenges associated with assessing micronutrient status. Accurate, user-friendly, and low-cost analytical tools are needed to allow large-scale population surveys on micronutrient status. We present the expansion of a 7-plex protein microarray tool for the simultaneous measurement of up to seven biomarkers with relevance to the assessment of the key micronutrients iron, iodine, and vitamin A, and inflammation and malaria biomarkers: α-1-acid glycoprotein, C-reactive protein, ferritin, retinol binding protein 4, soluble transferrin receptor, thyroglobulin, and histidine-rich protein II. Assay performance was assessed using international reference standards and then verified by comparing the multiplexed and conventional immunoassay results on a training panel of plasma samples collected from US adults. These data were used to assign nominal concentrations to the calibrators of the assay to further improve performance which was then assessed by interrogating plasma samples from a cohort of pregnant women from Niger. The correlation between assays for each biomarker measured from this cohort was typically good, with the exception of thyroglobulin, and the sensitivity ranged from 74% to 93%, and specificity from 81% to 98%. The 7-Plex micronutrient assay has the potential for use as an affordable tool for population surveillance of vitamin A, iron, and iodine deficiencies as well as falciparum malarial parasitemia infectivity and inflammation. The assay is easy-to-use, requires minimal sample volume, and is scalable, rapid, and accurate-needing only a low-cost reader and basic equipment present in most reference laboratory settings and so may be employed by low and middle income countries for micronutrient surveillance to inform on status in key populations. Micronutrient deficiencies including iron, iodine, and vitamin A affect a significant portion of the world's population. Efforts to assess the prevalence of these deficiencies in vulnerable populations are challenging, partly due to measurement tools that are inadequate for assessing multiple micronutrients in large-scale population surveys. We have developed a 7-plex immunoassay for the simultaneous measurement of seven biomarkers relevant to assessing iodine, iron, and vitamin A status, inflammation and Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia by measuring levels of thyroglobulin, ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor, retinol binding protein 4, α-1-acid glycoprotein, C-reactive protein, and histidine-rich protein II. This 7-plex immunoassay technique has potential as a rapid and effective tool for use in large-scale surveys and assessments of nutrition intervention programs in low- and middle-income countries.

Serological assays for human IgG4 to the Onchocerca volvulus antigen Ov16 have been used to confirm elimination of onchocerciasis in much of the Americas and parts of Africa. A standardized source of positive control antibody (human anti-Ov16 IgG4) will ensure the quality of surveillance data using these tests.A recombinant human IgG4 antibody to Ov16 was identified by screening against a synthetic human Fab phage display library and converted into human IgG4. This antibody was developed into different positive control formulations for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and rapid diagnostic test (RDT) platforms. Variation in ELISA results and utility as a positive control of the antibody were assessed from multiple laboratories. Temperature and humidity conditions were collected across seven surveillance activities from 2011-2014 to inform stability requirements for RDTs and positive controls. The feasibility of the dried positive control for RDT was evaluated during onchocerciasis surveillance activity in Togo, in 2014. When the anti-Ov16 IgG4 antibody was used as a standard dilution in horseradish peroxidase (HRP) and alkaline phosphatase (AP) ELISAs, the detection limits were approximately 1ng/mL by HRP ELISA and 10ng/mL by AP ELISA. Positive control dilutions and spiked dried blood spots (DBS) produced similar ELISA results. Used as a simple plate normalization control, the positive control antibody may improve ELISA data comparison in the context of inter-laboratory variation. The aggregate temperature and humidity monitor data informed temperature parameters under which the dried positive control was tested and are applicable inputs for testing of diagnostics tools intended for sub-Saharan Africa. As a packaged positive control for Ov16 RDTs, stability of the antibody was demonstrated for over six months at relevant temperatures in the laboratory and for over 15 weeks under field conditions.The recombinant human anti-Ov16 IgG4 antibody-based positive control will benefit inter-laboratory validation of ELISA assays and serve as quality control (QC) reagents for Ov16 RDTs at different points of the supply chain from manufacturer to field use.