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Objectives: Public health decision making is a complex process based on thorough and comprehensive health technology assessments involving the comparison of different strategies, values and tradeoffs under uncertainty. This process must be based on best available evidence and plausible assumptions. Causal inference and health decision science are two methodological approaches providing information to help guide decision making in health care. Both approaches are quantitative methods that use statistical and modeling techniques and simplifying assumptions to mimic the complexity of the real world. We intend to review and lay out both disciplines with their aims, strengths and limitations based on a combination of textbook knowledge and expert experience.Methods: To help understanding and differentiating the methodological approaches of causal inference and health decision science, we reviewed both methods with the focus on aims, research questions, methods, assumptions, limitations and challenges, and software. For each methodological approach, we established a group of four experts from our own working group to carefully review and summarize each method, followed by structured discussion rounds and written reviews, in which the experts from all disciplines including HTA and medicine were involved. The entire expert group discussed objectives, strengths and limitations of both methodological areas, and potential synergies. Finally, we derived recommendations for further research and provide a brief outlook on future trends.Results: Causal inference methods aim for drawing causal conclusions from empirical data on the relationship of pre-specified interventions on a specific target outcome and apply a counterfactual framework and statistical techniques to derive causal effects of exposures or interventions from these data. Causal inference is based on a causal diagram, more specifically, a directed acyclic graph (DAG), which encodes the assumptions regarding the causal relations between variables. Depending on the type of confounding and selection bias, traditional statistical methods or more complex g-methods are needed to derive valid causal effects. Besides the correct specification of the DAG and the statistical model, assumptions such as consistency, positivity, and exchangeability must be checked when aiming at causal inference.Health decision science aims for guiding policy decision making regarding health interventions considering and balancing multiple competing objectives of a decision based on data from multiple sources and studies, for example prevalence studies, clinical trials and long-term observational routine effectiveness studies, and studies on preferences and costs. It involves decision analysis, a systematic, explicit and quantitative framework to guide decisions under uncertainty. Decision analyses are based on decision-analytic models to mimic the course of disease as well as aspects and consequences of the intervention in order to quantitatively optimize the decision. Depending on the type of decision problem, decision trees, state-transition models, discrete event simulation models, dynamic transmission models, or other model types are applied. Models must be validated against observed data, and comprehensive sensitivity analyses must be performed to assess uncertainty. Besides the appropriate choice of the model type and the valid specification of the model structure, it must be checked if input parameters of effects can be interpreted as causal parameters in the model. Otherwise results will be biased.Conclusions: Both causal inference and health decision science aim for providing best causal evidence for informed health decision making. The strengths and limitations of both methods differ and a good understanding of both methods is essential for correct application but also for correct interpretation of findings from the described methods. Importantly, decision-analytic modeling should be combined with causal inference when developing guidance and recommendations regarding decisions on health care interventions.

Purpose: To analyze the predictive value of parameters of submaximal and maximal cardiopulmonary exercise performance on International Ski Federation (Fédération Internationale de Ski) World Cup ranking (FIS ranking) in elite Austrian Alpine skiers. Methods: Over 7 World Cup seasons (2012–2018), exercise data (maximal oxygen uptake and maximum power output, lactate threshold 2, and ventilatory threshold 2, based on stepwise cycle spiroergometry) were analyzed to determine whether there was a correlation between world FIS ranking and exercise capacity of male and female elite Alpine skiers. Results: The data of 39 male skiers (age: 27.67 [4.20] y, body mass index: 26.03 [1.25] kg/m2) and 36 female skiers (age: 25.49 [3.18] y, body mass index: 22.97 [1.71] kg/m2) were included in this study. The maximum oxygen uptake and maximum power output ranged from 4.37 to 4.42 W/kg and 53.41 to 54.85 mL/kg/min in men and from 4.17 to 4.30 W/kg and 45.96 to 49.16 mL/kg/min in women, respectively, over the 7 seasons; the yearly mean FIS ranking ranged from 17 to 24 in men and 9 to 18 in women. In a fixed-effects model used for the subsequent panel regression analysis, no statistically significant effect on FIS ranking was found for the exercise parameters of interest. Conclusions: Neither maximal aerobic tests nor maximum power output significantly predicted competitive performance, as indexed by the FIS ranking. This reinforces the assumption that no single parameter determines competition performance in this complex sport. Therefore, identifying the optimum amount of endurance training remains a major challenge for athletes and coaches, as does identifying and improving the factors that determine performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of these analyses is to investigate collective memory, i.e. the shared historical experiences of a community, as driving force for contemporary social capital. Three societal characteristics are considered proxies for collective memory: the current institutional framework as indicator for present common experiences; the cultural attitudes as proxy for long-term developments; and severe shocks in the history of the regions. The primary aim is thus to understand whether collective memory permits identification of not only the effects of recent (i.e. institutional) or distant (i.e. cultural) on-going experiences, but also of the impact of such relevant shocks. For this purpose, a comprehensive case study is conducted within a cross-border research area with special historical development, where it is possible to discriminate between these three indicators of collective memory. The findings suggest a significant impact of collective memory on social capital endowment. Particularly striking shocks are sustained in the collective memory of a community, influencing its behavior even long after the incident occurred. As a consequence, especially the levels of social trust and networking of the affected population are significantly influenced, such that the community develops protective measures in order to secure its norms, values and traditions. As a result, the social capital of a population is heavily influenced by events that occurred outside living memory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of barbed versus smooth sutures for soft tissue closure of exposed jawbone sites in medication-related osteonecrosis of the jaw (MRONJ) patients. Exposed necrotic jawbone sites surgically managed by intraoral soft tissue closure were evaluated. Either barbed sutures (Stratafix™ or V-Loc™) together with Prolene® or Vicryl® sutures were used. We estimated the effect of barbed sutures (BS) with Prolene® compared to smooth sutures (Vicryl®) on the hazard rate of intraoral soft tissue dehiscence using a multivariate Cox regression model within a target trial framework, adjusting for relevant confounders. In total, 306 operations were performed in 188 sites. In the primary analysis 182 sites without prior surgery were included. Of these, 113 sites developed a dehiscence during follow-up. 84 sites were operated using BS and Prolene®. A total of 222 sites were operated with Vicryl® (control group). In the BS group, the median time to event (i.e., dehiscence) was 148 days (interquartile range (IQR), 42–449 days) compared to 15 days (IQR, 12–52 days) in the control group. The hazard rate of developing intraoral dehiscence was 0.03 times (95%-confidence interval (CI): 0.01; 0.14, p < 0.001) lower for BS patients compared to the control group. Within the limits of a retrospective study, BS showed a high success rate and are therefore recommended for soft tissue closure of exposed jawbone sites in MRONJ patients. Additional studies are warranted to further evaluate this novel application of BS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clear evidence on the benefit-harm balance and cost effectiveness of population-based screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is missing. We aim to systematically evaluate the long-term effectiveness, harms and cost effectiveness of different organized CRC screening strategies in Austria.Methods: A decision-analytic cohort simulation model for colorectal adenoma and cancer with a lifelong time horizon was developed, calibrated to the Austrian epidemiological setting and validated against observed data. We compared four strategies: 1) No Screening, 2) FIT: annual immunochemical fecal occult blood test age 40-75 years, 3) gFOBT: annual guaiac-based fecal occult blood test age 40-75 years, and 4) COL: 10-yearly colonoscopy age 50-70 years. Predicted outcomes included: benefits expressed as life-years gained [LYG], CRC-related deaths avoided and CRC cases avoided; harms as additional complications due to colonoscopy (physical harm) and positive test results (psychological harm); and lifetime costs. Tradeoffs were expressed as incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR, incremental positive test results per LYG) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios [ICER]. The perspective of the Austrian public health care system was adopted. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty.Results: The most effective strategies were FIT and COL. gFOBT was less effective and more costly than FIT. Moving from COL to FIT results in an incremental unintended psychological harm of 16 additional positive test results to gain one life-year. COL was cost saving compared to No Screening. Moving from COL to FIT has an ICER of 15,000 EUR per LYG.Conclusions: Organized CRC-screening with annual FIT or 10-yearly colonoscopy is most effective. The choice between these two options depends on the individual preferences and benefit-harm tradeoffs of screening candidates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]