1,609 results on '"Representativeness heuristic"'
Search Results
2. Students' intuitively-based (mis)conceptions in probability and teachers' awareness of them: the case of heuristics.
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Erbas, Ayhan Kursat and Ocal, Mehmet Fatih
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HIGH school students , *HEURISTIC , *MIDDLE schools , *PROBABILITY theory , *TEACHERS - Abstract
The purpose of this study was twofold. First, to explore middle and high school students' intuitively-based (mis)conceptions in probability, particularly availability and representativeness heuristics. Second, to investigate teachers' awareness of these intuitively-based (mis)conceptions and the effectiveness of their instructional practices to support students' understanding of probability beyond heuristics. The participants were two middle school mathematics teachers, three high school mathematics teachers and their students. Data were collected through a diagnostic test administered to students as a pretest and posttest, interviews with the teachers and two students from each class and classroom observations. The findings indicated the existence of intuitively-based (mis)conceptions regarding availability and representativeness heuristics among middle and high school students. In general, the teachers did not consider the students' intuitions and difficulties in probability in their instructions. Not only did they rarely guide students to analyze and solve the tasks coherently and deliberately, but they also did not discuss students' intuitively-based (mis)conceptions. The results highlighted that if teachers do not attend to student thinking and change their instructional practices accordingly, their knowledge about students' difficulties will not necessarily help students overcome their intuitions and attain a probabilistic way of thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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3. A Study on the Representativeness Heuristics Problem in Large Language Models
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Jongwon Ryu, Jungeun Kim, and Junyeong Kim
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Prompt engineering ,zero-shot learning ,large language model ,representativeness heuristic ,Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering ,TK1-9971 - Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable proficiency in text generation. However, their logical reasoning capabilities require enhancement. Major strides have been achieved in reasoning techniques for LLM, such as Few-shot, Zero-shot, and Chain-of-Thought (CoT). Nevertheless, these techniques have shortcomings, particularly in addressing the representativeness heuristic (RH) phenomenon. RH is a cognitive bias that occurs when a person judges the probability of an event or the likelihood that an object belongs to a particular category based on how well it matches the prototype or stereotype of that category. In this study, we investigated the pervasive issue of RH errors in LLMs. This research surpasses the constraints of previous studies by analyzing various RH scenarios that they did not cover and by directly constructing and testing the corresponding datasets. Moreover, a novel prompt called zero-shot-RH is proposed to augment the reasoning ability of LLMs, mitigate RH errors, and thus bolster logical reasoning. This approach seeks to enable LLMs to comprehend the given information better and reduce the biases stemming from RH errors. The prompt zero-shot-RH achieved an average accuracy higher than zero-shot-CoT by 0.145 and 0.277 in the tasks of correct reasoning and correct reasonings by sex, respectively, without relying on RH. The outcomes of this research endeavor are a deeper understanding of RH errors in LLMs and novel strategies to mitigate these biases, thereby advancing the domain of logical reasoning within LLMs.
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- 2024
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4. BEHAVIORAL AND COGNITIVE FACTORS IN THE FORMATION OF THE HEURISTIC MODEL OF THE EFFECTIVE INTERPRETER IN INVESTING IN HIGH-TECH COMPANIES
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S. V. Ilkevich
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cognitive biases ,behavioral heuristics ,survivor bias ,sunk cost fallacy ,representativeness heuristic ,market capitalization ,stock market ,portfolio investment ,ipo ,spac ,innovation ,narratives ,irrational optimism ,irrational exuberance ,behavioral finance ,growth companies ,high-tech companies ,new economy ,cryptocurrencies ,momentum strategies ,investment thesis. ,Risk in industry. Risk management ,HD61 - Abstract
The article presents a systematisation of the main factors of cognitive distortions and behavioural heuristics that make the switch to the effective interpreter model irreversible in portfolio investments, especially in high-tech companies. As the heuristic model of the effective interpreter can be perceived as generally increasing the risks in the system for all stakeholders at the current stage of the evolution of the investment system, the author focuses on the most negative manifestations of cognitive and behavioural factors in his description in the publication. However, this does not mean that it is possible or desirable to return to the rational investor model, as narrative and storytelling’s components are too important in the context of ‘new economy’ industry formation and and fast business expansion by disruptive companies. To better interpret the business potential of companies, stakeholders, especially investors, increasingly need to work with narratives, storytelling, aspects of perception and business trust, rather than the numerical values and ratios of financial reporting and analytics. This is partly due to the fact that the intangible assets of companies in the S&P500 index have accounted for up to 90% of the total market capitalisation over the last two decades.The author identifies the most significant cognitive and behavioral factors: the increase in the narrative component of equity value, the ‘fake it till you make it’ approach, the proliferation of cryptocurrencies as the asset with the largest narrative component of value, the boom in IPOs and SPACs in 2020-2021, buybacks as an unproductive signalling tool, the popularisation of chasing triple digit returns based on the survivor bias, the popularity of momentum strategies, the over-reliance on analyst recommendations and assessments, ‘pump and dump’ schemes, investment gamification and investor extroversion, anchoring and framing, the sunk cost fallacy, the lack of rigorous techniques for invalidating investment theses, and the perception of free money in investing over the past decade and a half. Awareness and tracking of at least the most significant behavioural and cognitive factors in the formation and further development of the heuristic model of the ‘effective interpreter’ will help to reduce risks in the financial and investment system of the ‘new economy’ and increase the sustainability of its long-term development.
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- 2023
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5. Earnings seasonality, management earnings forecasts and stock returns
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Danling Jiang, Pan Song, and Hongquan Zhu
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Management earnings forecast ,Earnings seasonality ,Stock return seasonality ,Representativeness heuristic ,Extrapolation ,Accounting. Bookkeeping ,HF5601-5689 - Abstract
We examine whether management earnings forecasts (MEFs) help reduce the stock return seasonality associated with earnings seasonality around earnings announcements (EAs) in Chinese A-share markets. We find that firms in historically low earnings seasons outperform firms in high earnings seasons by 2.1% around MEFs. Firms in low earnings seasons also have higher trading volume and return volatility than their counterparts around EAs and MEFs. MEFs significantly reduce the ability of historical seasonal earnings rankings to negatively predict announcement returns, volume and volatility around EAs. The reduction effects are stronger when MEFs are voluntary or made closer to EAs. The evidence suggests that MEFs facilitate the correction of investors’ tendency to extrapolate earnings seasonality and its resulted stock mispricing.
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- 2023
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6. Toward a more nuanced understanding of probability estimation biases.
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Branch, Fallon and Hegdé, Jay
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ESTIMATION bias ,COMPUTER-aided diagnosis ,JUDGMENT (Psychology) ,PROBABILITY theory ,EARLY detection of cancer - Abstract
In real life, we often have to make judgements under uncertainty. One such judgement task is estimating the probability of a given event based on uncertain evidence for the event, such as estimating the chances of actual fire when the fire alarm goes off. On the one hand, previous studies have shown that human subjects often significantly misestimate the probability in such cases. On the other hand, these studies have offered divergent explanations as to the exact causes of these judgment errors (or, synonymously, biases). For instance, different studies have attributed the errors to the neglect (or underweighting) of the prevalence (or base rate) of the given event, or the overweighting of the evidence for the individual event (‘individuating information’), etc. However, whether or to what extent any such explanation can fully account for the observed errors remains unclear. To help fill this gap, we studied the probability estimation performance of non-professional subjects under four different real-world problem scenarios: (i) Estimating the probability of cancer in a mammogram given the relevant evidence from a computer-aided cancer detection system, (ii) estimating the probability of drunkenness based on breathalyzer evidence, and (iii & iv) estimating the probability of an enemy sniper based on two different sets of evidence from a drone reconnaissance system. In each case, we quantitatively characterized the contributions of the various potential explanatory variables to the subjects’ probability judgements. We found that while the various explanatory variables together accounted for about 30 to 45% of the overall variance of the subjects’ responses depending on the problem scenario, no single factor was sufficient to account for more than 53% of the explainable variance (or about 16 to 24% of the overall variance), let alone all of it. Further analyses of the explained variance revealed the surprising fact that no single factor accounted for significantly more than its ‘fair share’ of the variance. Taken together, our results demonstrate quantitatively that it is statistically untenable to attribute the errors of probabilistic judgement to any single cause, including base rate neglect. A more nuanced and unifying explanation would be that the actual biases reflect a weighted combination of multiple contributing factors, the exact mix of which depends on the particular problem scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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7. It is probably a pattern: does spontaneous focusing on regularities in preschool predict reasoning about randomness four years later?
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Supply, Anne-Sophie, Wijns, Nore, Van Dooren, Wim, and Onghena, Patrick
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HEURISTIC , *MATHEMATICS , *PATTERNS (Mathematics) , *COIN tricks , *RANDOM effects model - Abstract
The many studies with coin-tossing tasks in literature show that the concept of randomness is challenging for adults as well as children. Systematic errors observed in coin-tossing tasks are often related to the representativeness heuristic, which refers to a mental shortcut that is used to judge randomness by evaluating how well a set of random events represents the typical example for random events we hold in our mind. Representative thinking is explained by our tendency to seek for patterns in our surroundings. In the present study, predictions of coin-tosses of 302 third-graders were explored. Findings suggest that in third grade of elementary school, children make correct as well as different types of erroneous predictions and individual differences exist. Moreover, erroneous predictions that were in line with representative thinking were positively associated with an early spontaneous focus on regularities, which was assessed when they were in second year of preschool. We concluded that previous studies might have underestimated children's reasoning about randomness in coin-tossing contexts and that representative thinking is indeed associated with pattern-based thinking tendencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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8. Diversity effects in subjective probability judgment.
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Hadjichristidis, Constantinos, Geipel, Janet, and Gopalakrishna Pillai, Kishore
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PROBABILITY theory , *JUDGMENT (Psychology) , *BUSINESSMEN , *HEURISTIC - Abstract
Previous research has shown that the judged probability of an event depends on whether its description mentions examples ("What is the probability that a randomly chosen Italian businessman will travel during the next month to Warsaw, Budapest, Prague or some other European city?") or does not mention examples ("What is the probability that a randomly chosen Italian businessman will travel during the next month to a European city?"). Here, we examined descriptions that mention examples and manipulated whether these are relatively similar (e.g., Warsaw, Budapest, Prague) or diverse (e.g., Warsaw, Marseilles, Helsinki). Four experiments (N = 1112) revealed a diversity effect: Overall, descriptions with diverse examples received higher probability judgments than descriptions with similar examples. We discuss several possible mechanisms for this effect, such as that descriptions with diverse examples prompt fuller representations of the target category or that the effect is driven by a representativeness or proximity heuristic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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9. Construction Workers' Representativeness Heuristic in Decision Making: The Impact of Demographic Factors.
- Author
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Liu, Qingli, Ye, Gui, Yang, Jingjing, Xiang, Qingting, and Liu, Qinjun
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CONSTRUCTION workers , *DECISION making , *CHINESE people , *HEURISTIC , *BUILDING sites - Abstract
A representativeness heuristic (RH) refers to a shortcut in decision making, one or two subdimensions of which have been found to impact construction workers' unsafe behaviors prominently. To reduce workers' reliance on representativeness heuristic effectively, two key questions should be clarified: (1) whether all subdimensions of the representativeness heuristic influence workers' decision making, and (2) whether such a heuristic is more or less prevalent in certain groups. However, both issues remain unresolved. To fill in these research gaps, the current study collected data using a questionnaire survey from 194 Chinese workers in eight construction projects. After a series of analyses, the results revealed that (1) all subdimensions of the representativeness heuristic had potential to impact construction workers' decision making; and (2) workers' reliance on the representativeness heuristic had an initial downtrend followed by an uptrend as age and education level increased, whereas seniority and type of work were not related to this heuristic. The research findings are helpful for safety organizations to manage their diverse workforces. Devoting prevention resources to workers of particular age and education background groups is recommended to reduce the representativeness heuristic and improve the safety performance of construction sites further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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10. Representativeness Heuristic in Stock Market: Measurement and Its Predictive Ability.
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Xie, Jun, Hu, Nan, Gao, Bin, and Tan, ChunZhi
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STOCK exchanges ,RATE of return on stocks ,ABNORMAL returns ,HEURISTIC - Abstract
This paper measures representativeness heuristic by the irrational part of time-varying Hurst exponent, and empirically tests the validity of measurement including its predictive ability for one-month-ahead excess return in the Chinese stock market. Our preliminary analyses suggest that the representativeness heuristic is a "new" firm-specific characteristic and is possibly related (not consistent) with momentum. It confirms that the measurement of representativeness heuristic is valid. Further researches show that the representativeness heuristic has the predictive ability for one-month-ahead excess return. Meanwhile, multiple robustness tests are constructed to prove these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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11. Politicians, the Representativeness Heuristic and Decision-Making Biases.
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Stolwijk, Sjoerd and Vis, Barbara
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POLITICIANS , *HEURISTIC , *EXPERIMENTAL design , *INFORMATION processing - Abstract
Do politicians use the representativeness heuristic when making judgements, that is, when they appraise the likelihood or frequency of an outcome that is unknown or unknowable? Heuristics are cognitive shortcuts that facilitate judgements and decision making. Oftentimes, heuristics are useful, but they may also lead to systematic biases that can be detrimental for decision making in a representative democracy. Thus far, we lack experimental evidence on whether politicians use the representativeness heuristic. To contribute to and extend the existing literature, we develop and conduct a survey experiment with as main participants Dutch elected local politicians from the larger municipalities (n = 211). This survey experiment examines whether politician participants display two decision-making biases related to the representativeness heuristic: the conjunction error and scope neglect. We also run the experiment with a student sample (n = 260), mainly to validate the experimental design. Our findings show that politician participants neglect scope in one scenario and that they display the conjunction error in two of three scenarios. These results suggest that politician participants use the representativeness heuristic. Conversely, our third conjunction error scenario does not find evidence for politician participants displaying this bias. As we discuss in the article, the latter may be an artifact of our experimental design. Overall, our findings contribute fundamentally to our understanding of how politicians process information and how this influences their judgements and decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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12. Measuring Stereotypes in Music: A Commentary on Susino and Schubert (2019)
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Manuel Anglada-Tort
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stereotype ,emotion ,lyrics ,problem music ,representativeness heuristic ,Music ,M1-5000 - Abstract
In this commentary, I first discuss the strengths of the target paper and provide suggestions for future research. I proceed to point out an important limitation of the target study as well as contribute considerations relevant to measuring stereotypes in music. Finally, I present a novel theoretical account to explain music stereotyping, namely, the representativeness heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), which I discuss within the broader framework of the behavioral economics of music.
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- 2019
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13. Is Politics Still a Masculine Thing? Stereotypical Male Description Activates the Prototype of the Politically Committed Individual Worthy of a Vote.
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Cavazza, Nicoletta and Pacilli, Maria Giuseppina
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GENDER stereotypes , *POLITICAL participation , *MASCULINITY , *SOCIAL & economic rights , *CIVIL rights - Abstract
In the last few centuries, women in Western countries have achieved revolutionary advancements in terms of civil and social rights. Nevertheless, women continue to be underrepresented in leadership positions, and this major issue needs to be tackled. In the present research, comprising two studies, we aimed to test the role of gender stereotype salience in affecting the extent to which individuals view women and men as being close to the 'politically involved individual' prototype and its influence on the intention to vote for women and men. In both studies, we found that the increased perceived likelihood of a target to participate in politics when described as a real man (Study 1) or as stereotypically masculine (irrespective of his/her sex, Study 2), in respect to the other conditions, mediated participants' willingness to vote for them in case of candidacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2021
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14. An Explorative Study on Heuristic Effects of Healthy Food Labels in an Online Shopping Situation.
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Fagerstrøm, Asle, Richartz, Philip, Arntzen, Erik, and Sigurdsson, Valdimar
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FOOD labeling ,ONLINE shopping ,CONSUMER preferences ,HEURISTIC ,LABELS ,DISCRETE choice models - Abstract
This study focuses on the representativeness heuristic effects of healthy food labels on consumer choice of healthy food. A within-subject experiment was arranged to identify whether consumers rely on representativeness heuristics when making a series of choices of food. Determining whether healthy food labels bias their choice under these limitations was of particular interest. Results (n=30) showed that some participants tend to develop a representativeness heuristic for choice in a series of food choices. For some consumers, healthy food labels do, to some extent, cue them into making biased choices. These results reveal that some consumers do find comparing healthiness of products tedious and rely on representativeness heuristics when making a choice. However, the use of healthy food labels specifically as a cue is very limited when other objective cues such as nutrition information are readily available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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15. Epistemic Judgments are Insensitive to Probabilities.
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Bricker, Adam Michael
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STATISTICS , *PROBABILITY theory , *EPISTEMIC logic , *RESPECT - Abstract
Multiple epistemological programs make use of intuitive judgments pertaining to an individual's ability to gain knowledge from exclusively probabilistic/statistical information. This paper argues that these judgments likely form without deference to such information, instead being a function of the degree to which having knowledge is representative of an agent. Thus, these judgments fit the pattern of formation via a representativeness heuristic, like that famously described by Kahneman and Tversky to explain similar probabilistic judgments. Given this broad insensitivity to probabilistic/statistical information, it directly follows that these epistemic judgments are insensitive to a given agent's epistemic status. From this, the paper concludes that, breaking with common epistemological practice, we cannot assume that such judgments are reliable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2020
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16. Heuristics in fantasy sports: is it profitable to strategize based on favourite of the match?
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Kotrba, Vojtěch
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FANTASY sports ,HEURISTIC ,ECONOMETRIC models ,TEAMS in the workplace - Abstract
In fantasy sports, the goal is to gain as many points as possible. To get there, users have to choose players with the optimal price-to-performance ratio. However, finding these optimal players requires a great amount of time and effort, in which the users might not be willing to invest. Instead, they can use heuristic strategies. This paper investigates one such strategy for choosing squads based on the assumption that athletes starting for the favourite team of the match would bring users more points—in line with the representativeness heuristic. The data come from the Czech fantasy league according to the Premier League in the season 2015–16. The econometric model examines the percentage of squads a player was chosen into. The Ordinary Least Squares method used here uses control variables indicating performance, price, Czech nationality, and the game position of the athletes. The results show that users choose their squads primarily based on players' past performances, but also take the favourite team into account. By applying the latter heuristic users aim to simplify the process decision-making but they overestimate the impact of belonging to a favourite team. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
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17. Private investor extrapolation bias – evidence through qualitative content analysis (QCA)
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Rapp, Albert
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- 2016
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18. A review on discrete diversity and dispersion maximization from an OR perspective
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Rafael Martí, Jesús Sánchez-Oro, Anna Martínez-Gavara, and Sergio Pérez-Peló
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Mathematical optimization ,Information Systems and Management ,General Computer Science ,Mathematical model ,Heuristic ,Computer science ,Maximization ,Management Science and Operations Research ,Representativeness heuristic ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,Set (abstract data type) ,Modeling and Simulation ,Benchmark (computing) ,Combinatorial optimization ,Diversity (business) - Abstract
The problem of maximizing diversity or dispersion deals with selecting a subset of elements from a given set in such a way that the distance among the selected elements is maximized. The definition of distance between elements is customized to specific applications, and the way that the overall diversity of the selected elements is computed results in different mathematical models. Maximizing diversity by means of combinatorial optimization models has gained prominence in Operations Research (OR) over the last two decades, and constitutes nowadays an important area. In this paper, we review the milestones in the development of this area, starting in the late eighties when the first models were proposed, and identify three periods of time. The critical analysis from an OR perspective of the previous developments, permits us to establish the most appropriate models, their connection with practical problems in terms of dispersion and representativeness, and the open problems that are still a challenge. We also revise and extend the library of benchmark instances that has been widely used in heuristic comparisons. Finally, we perform an empirical review and comparison of the best and more recently proposed procedures, to clearly identify the state-of-the art methods for the main diversity models.
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- 2022
- Full Text
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19. Considerations for Addressing the Needs of Culturally and Linguistically Diverse Speech-Language Pathology Praxis Test Takers
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Angela M. Medina, Alliete R Alfano, and Stefanie Moore
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Licensure ,Linguistics and Language ,Pathology ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Speech-Language Pathology ,Praxis ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Ethnic group ,Hispanic or Latino ,Representativeness heuristic ,United States ,Test (assessment) ,Speech and Hearing ,Race (biology) ,Otorhinolaryngology ,Cultural diversity ,Workforce ,Ethnicity ,Developmental and Educational Psychology ,medicine ,Humans ,Psychology ,media_common - Abstract
Purpose: The primary purpose of this article is to explore the speech-language pathology (SLP) Praxis test, a barrier to culturally and linguistically diverse (CLD) individuals entering the profession, by investigating first-time pass rates and mean scores by test taker race/ethnicity. Other potential barriers to licensure and certification, as well as solutions for mitigating these barriers, will also be addressed. Method: SLP Praxis test data from two windows of time, 2008–2011 and 2014–2020, were compared for the following: (a) proportions of test taker race/ethnicity relative to U.S. demographic estimates of racial/ethnic group proportions overall, (b) proportions of racial/ethnic groups, and (c) trends in test-taker mean scores by race/ethnicity. First-attempt pass rates by racial/ethnic groups were also calculated for the 2014–2020 testing window. Results: The percentage of some CLD SLP Praxis test-taker groups increased since the 2008–2011 testing window but is still not representative of U.S. racial/ethnic demographics. The first-attempt pass rates and overall mean scores of CLD test-taker groups remained substantially lower than White non–Hispanic/Latinx test takers. Conclusions: Despite the encouraging trends in SLP Praxis test-taker racial/ethnic diversity, disparities persist between the racial/ethnic makeup of SLP Praxis test takers and the demographic makeup of the United States. Consequently, these disparities have implications for the continued lack of cultural representativeness seen in our workforce.
- Published
- 2022
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20. Representativeness assessment of the pan-Arctic eddy covariance site network and optimized future enhancements
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Gerardo Celis, Jitendra Kumar, Mathias Göckede, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Forrest M. Hoffman, Martijn Pallandt, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Marguerite Mauritz
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0211 other engineering and technologies ,Eddy covariance ,Climate change ,02 engineering and technology ,010501 environmental sciences ,Permafrost ,01 natural sciences ,Representativeness heuristic ,Life ,QH501-531 ,QH540-549.5 ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Earth-Surface Processes ,QE1-996.5 ,Ecology ,Biosphere ,Geology ,021107 urban & regional planning ,Edaphic ,15. Life on land ,Current (stream) ,Arctic ,13. Climate action ,Environmental science ,Physical geography - Abstract
Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.
- Published
- 2022
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21. Process of making decisions on loan currency: Influence of representativeness on information processing and coherence with consumption motives
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Anđelković Dragan
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representativeness heuristic ,rationality ,instrumental and consummatory motives ,loan currency ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 - Abstract
Rationality of decision maker is often reduced by heuristics and biases, and also by different types of external stimuli. In decision-making process individuals simplify phases of information selection and information processing by using heuristics, simple rules which are focused on one aspect of complex problem and ignore other aspects, and in that way 'speed up' decision-making process. This method of making decisions, although efficient in making simple decisions, can lead to mistakes in probability assessment and diminish rationality of decision maker. In that way it can influence drastically on transaction outcome for which decision is being made. The subject of this study is influence of representativeness heuristic on making financial decisions by individuals, and influence of consumption motives on stereotypical elements in information processing phase. Study was conducted by determining attitudes of respondents toward currencies, and then by conducting experiments with aim of analyzing method of making decisions on loan currency. Aim of study was determining whether and to what extent representativeness influence choice of currency in process of making loan decisions. Results of conducted behavioral experiments show that respondents, opposite to rational model, do not asses probability by processing available information and in accordance with their preferences, but by comparing decision objects with other objects which have same attributes, showing in that way moderate positive correlation between stereotypical attitudes and choice of loan currency. Experiments have shown that instrumental motive significantly influence representativeness heuristics, that is, individuals are prone to process information with diminished influence of stereotypical attitudes caused by external stimuli, in situations where there is no so called 'hedonistic decision-making'. Respondents have been making more efficient decisions if they had motive which does not lead to hedonistic consumption. Experiments did not show connections between consummatory motives and representativeness.
- Published
- 2016
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22. Distribution effectiveness through full- and self-service channels under economic fluctuations in an emerging market
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Jonny Mateus Rodrigues, Leandro Angotti Guissoni, Marcos Fava Neves, and Felipe Zambaldi
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Marketing ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,Instrumental variable ,Distribution (economics) ,BENS DE CONSUMO ,Representativeness heuristic ,Convexity ,0502 economics and business ,Econometrics ,050211 marketing ,Endogeneity ,Business ,Market share ,Emerging markets ,050203 business & management ,Communication channel - Abstract
Retail distribution is one of the major challenges in emerging economies. These economies are volatile and filled with inefficiencies, and the representativeness of unstructured retail increases the complexity of distribution systems for consumer packaged-goods companies. We analyze 644 brands to extend the existing literature by modeling the retail distribution and market share in an emerging market according to the type of retail channel (full- and self-service channels), moderated by economic fluctuations and the market position of a brand (high- and low-share brands). Our model controls for endogeneity using instrumental variables (IVs) and accommodates heterogeneity across brands and categories by means of a fixed-effects robust regression. Our study highlights that the relationship between distribution and market share exhibits greater convexity in the self-service channel than in the full-service channel. Further, we contribute to the existing research in distribution effectiveness in emerging markets by showing the convex effect of distribution on market share could vary when the economy changes. Distribution gains are more effective in the self-service channel than in the full-service channel in times of economic decline. Also, the results indicate the higher degree of convexity in the relationship between distribution and market share for the self-service channel compared with the full-service channel is increased further for high-share brands than for low-share brands.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
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23. Surface ozone monitoring and policy: A geospatial decision support tool for suitable location of monitoring stations in urban areas
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Kari Northeim, Joseph R. Oppong, and Chetan Tiwari
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Pollution ,Decision support system ,education.field_of_study ,Geospatial analysis ,business.industry ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Environmental resource management ,Population ,Air pollution ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,computer.software_genre ,medicine.disease_cause ,Representativeness heuristic ,medicine ,Spatial ecology ,Environmental science ,Metric (unit) ,business ,education ,computer ,media_common - Abstract
Fixed site monitoring is the primary method of measuring surface ozone pollution for health advisories and pollutant reduction, but the spatial scale may not reflect the current population distribution or its future growth. Moreover, formal methods for the placement of ozone monitoring sites within populations regions omit important spatial criteria producing monitoring locations that could unintentionally bias the exposure burden. Because ozone pollution endangers human health, triggering shortness of breath, causing asthma attacks and mortality, a need exists for assessing the spatial representativeness and data gaps of existing pollution monitors and to evaluate future placement strategies of additional monitors. A new metric, the potency index, for assessing the placements of monitors in relation to population distribution was developed. This index was used to evaluate the configuration of the ozone pollution monitoring network in relation to the population distribution in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW). Location-allocation models were used to optimize future sensor quantity and placement. Finally, we propose the development of a decision support system that uses evaluation and optimization methods to improve air pollution monitoring objectives.
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- 2021
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24. Domestic and international mobility trends in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of facebook data
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Alexandra Loveridge, Florence S. Atherden, Ho Man Theophilus Chan, Andrew J. Tatem, and Harry E. R. Shepherd
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Geographic mobility ,Human mobility ,Facebook ,General Computer Science ,Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics ,R858-859.7 ,Representativeness heuristic ,Proxy (climate) ,Pandemic ,Humans ,Pandemics ,Travel patterns ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Research ,Social distance ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,COVID-19 ,Census ,General Business, Management and Accounting ,United Kingdom ,Geography ,Mobile phone ,Communicable Disease Control ,Demographic economics ,Social Media ,Population geography - Abstract
Background Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which resulted in changes to mobility across different regions. An understanding of how these policies impacted travel patterns over time and at different spatial scales is important for designing effective strategies, future pandemic planning and in providing broader insights on the population geography of the country. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying in near-real time the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Methods Here we explore patterns of change in densities, domestic and international flows and co-location of Facebook users in the UK from March 2020 to March 2021. Results We find substantial heterogeneities across time and region, with large changes observed compared to pre-pademic patterns. The impacts of periods of lockdown on distances travelled and flow volumes are evident, with each showing variations, but some significant reductions in co-location rates. Clear differences in multiple metrics of mobility are seen in central London compared to the rest of the UK, with each of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland showing significant deviations from England at times. Moreover, the impacts of rapid changes in rules on international travel to and from the UK are seen in substantial fluctuations in traveller volumes by destination. Conclusions While questions remain about the representativeness of the Facebook data, previous studies have shown strong correspondence with census-based data and alternative mobility measures, suggesting that findings here are valuable for guiding strategies.
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- 2021
25. How bookies make your money
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Philip W. S. Newall
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gambling ,sports betting ,bookies ,bookmaking ,advertising ,representativeness heuristic ,Social Sciences ,Psychology ,BF1-990 - Abstract
UK bookies (bookmakers) herd geographically in less-affluent areas. The present work shows that UK bookies also herd with the special bets that they advertise to consumers, both in their shop window advertising and on TV adverts as shown to millions of viewers. I report an observational study of betting adverts over the 2014 soccer World Cup. Bet types vary in complexity, with complex types having the highest expected losses. Bookies herded on a common strategy of advertising special bets on two levels: by almost exclusively advertising complex bet types with high expected losses, and by advertising representative events within a given complex bet type. This evidence is most consistent with bookies’ advertising targeting a representativeness heuristic amongst bettors. Bookies may know how to nudge bettors toward larger losses.
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- 2015
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26. Heuristics and Political Elites' Judgment and Decision-Making.
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Vis, Barbara
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HEURISTIC , *POLITICAL elites , *ELITE (Social sciences) , *OLIGARCHY , *POLITICIANS , *DECISION making , *POLITICAL parties - Abstract
It is broadly assumed that political elites (e.g. party leaders) regularly rely on heuristics in their judgments or decision-making. In this article, I aim to bring together and discuss the scattered literature on this topic. To address the current conceptual unclarity, I discuss two traditions on heuristics: (1) the heuristics and biases (H&B) tradition pioneered by Kahneman and Tversky and (2) the fast and frugal heuristics (F&F) tradition pioneered by Gigerenzer et al. I propose to concentrate on two well-defined heuristics from the H&B tradition—availability and representativeness—to empirically assess when political elites rely on heuristics and thereby understand better their judgments and decisions. My review of existing studies supports the notion that political elites use the availability heuristic and possibly the representativeness one for making complex decisions under uncertainty. It also reveals that besides this, we still know relatively little about when political elites use which heuristic and with what effect(s). Therefore, I end by proposing an agenda for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2019
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27. The development of the representativeness heuristic in young children.
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Gualtieri, Samantha and Denison, Stephanie
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HEURISTIC , *DECISION making , *STEREOTYPES , *COGNITIVE development , *PERSONALITY development - Abstract
In classic examinations of the representativeness heuristic, Kahneman and Tversky (1973) presented adult participants with a description of an individual who fit their stereotype of a typical engineer. Importantly, even when participants were told that the individual was drawn from a sample of 70 lawyers and 30 engineers, they estimated that the individual was an engineer at very high levels, showing that they relied almost exclusively on the personality description. Relying on the representativeness heuristic can lead to base-rate neglect and, thus, biased judgments. Two experiments provide insight into the development of the representativeness heuristic in young children using an adaptation of the classic lawyer–engineer problem. Experiment 1 ( N = 96) established that 3- to 5-year-olds can use base-rate information on its own, and 4- and 5-year-olds can use individuating information on its own, to make inferences. Experiment 2 ( N = 192) varied the relevance of the individuating information across conditions to assess the pervasiveness of this bias early in development. Here 5- and 6-year-olds, much like adults, continue to attempt to rely on individuating information when making classifications even if that information is irrelevant. Together, these experiments reveal how the representativeness heuristic develops across the preschool years and suggest that the bias may strengthen between 4 and 6 years of age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2018
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28. Implicit Theories and Offender Representativeness in Judgments About Sexual Crime.
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Harper, Craig A. and Bartels, Ross M.
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PSYCHOLOGY of sex offenders ,SEXUALLY abused children ,SEXUAL orientation ,SEX crimes ,CRIMINALS ,CRIMINOLOGY ,JUDGMENT (Psychology) ,SENSORY perception ,PSYCHOLOGY - Abstract
Implicit theories structure the way people understand and respond to various human actions. Typically, people believe attributes are either fixed (entitists) or malleable (incrementalists). The present study aimed to examine (a) whether attitudes toward sexual offenders differ depending upon one's implicit theory about human nature and sexual offenders, and (b) whether implicit theories are associated with judgments made about different types of child abusers. A sample of 252 community participants was recruited. Their attitudes, implicit theories, and political orientation were assessed via self-report. One of three vignettes describing an incidence of child sexual abuse was then presented. The cases were identical except the perpetrator was either an adult male, an adult female, or a male juvenile. Participants then made judgments about the offender's deserved sentence and moral character. Entitists (across both domains) held more negative attitudes than incrementalists, although the magnitude of the difference was greatest when examining implicit theories about sexual offenders. Compared with those with an incremental theory of sexual offenders, entity theorists judged sexual offending to be more (a) indicative of the perpetrator's moral character and (b) deserving of punishment. However, scores were greater toward the adult male relative to the adult female and juvenile. The findings suggest that implicit theories about sexual offenders are domain specific. They also indicate that judgments made by those with an entity theory (about sexual offenders) are affected by whether a case is representative of a stereotypical sexual offender. Implications of the findings are discussed, along with limitations and future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2018
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29. КОГНИТИВНЕ ПРИСТРАСНОСТИ У ПРАВНОЈ ОБЛАСТИ: МЕСТО СУСРЕТА ПРАВНЕ И БИХЕВИОРИСТИЧКЕ НАУКЕ
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Мојашевић, Александар С. and Николић, Љубица
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Copyright of Zbornik Radova Pravnog Fakulteta u Nisu is the property of Law Faculty in Nis and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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- 2018
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30. Wskaźnikowa ocena wartości estetycznej krajobrazu miejskiego na przykładzie centrum Wieliczki
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Krzysztof A. Kowalczyk, Uniwersytet Pedagogiczny im. KEN w Krakowie, Szkoła Doktorska, ul. Podchorążych 2, 30-084 Kraków, and krzysztof.kowalczyk5@doktorant.up.krakow.pl
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Value (ethics) ,business.industry ,landscape aesthetics ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Environmental resource management ,Enclosure ,Graphic design ,estetyka krajobrazu ,Representativeness heuristic ,fizjonomia krajobrazu ,Unit (housing) ,landscape-urban enclosure ,Geography ,Wieliczka ,Urban planning ,assessment of the aesthetic value of the landscape ,landscape physiognomy ,ocena wartości estetycznej krajobrazu ,Quality (business) ,business ,Choropleth map ,wnętrze krajobrazowo-urbanistyczne ,media_common - Abstract
Aesthetic landscape assessments are difficult studies, mostly based on subjective methods and hybrid research tools. The need for aesthetic landscape research derives from the care and concern not only for spatial order, but also for the quality of life and the of living, work and leisure environment. The landscape discussed in the article will be considered aesthetically in physiognomic terms as an perceived visual landscape. The first problem in the aesthetic assessments of landscape is the choice of the appropriate spatial unit that can reflect the real features of that landscape. It is postulated to use of landscape and urban enclosures designated according to the viewing and urban planning criteria as the basic units for the perception of the urban landscape.In the next part there will be a two-stage analysis of landscape and urban enclosures in terms of value and visual attractiveness. The fist stage is the identification and assessment of urban aesthetic landscapes – this indicator is used to assess the value of aesthetic urban landscape. The recommended groups of indicators include such landscape features as: colour and lighting, cleanliness and order, accessibility, functionality of enclosures resources, quality and technical condition, composition and arrangement, enclosures morphology and construction, decorativeness and urban furniture, proportionality of enclosures elements, spatiality (spaciousness), representativeness of the enclosures, diversity of enclosures resources, identity and symbolism, visibility as well as the compactness and coherence of enclosures walls. The second step is to specify the positive and negative landscape and aesthetic patterns in order to develop guidelines for the protection or improvement of the landscape with the highest and lowest values. In these studies, a view-composition analysis should be used based on the research methods and tools already available from the literature. The result of the research is a graphic design in the form of a choropleth map showing urban aesthetic landscapes and a series of guidelines for shaping and protecting the aesthetics of the landscape.The case study was based on the center of the town of Wieliczka, as it has the features typical of inner-city areas of small and medium-sized town in Poland. In the structure of the examined town center, 42 landscape and urban enclosures were determined based on the viewing and urban planning criteria. Among the best rated indicators there are those related to cleanliness and order, proportionality of enclosures elements, spatiality and accessibility, which are very often ascribed in geographical research (and not only) to the concept of spatial order. The enclosures with the highest rating are located in the central and northern part of the center of Wieliczka, covering the historic urban complex and a sequence of enclosures along the most important communication artery in the town. The lowest aesthetic rating was given to the enclosures located on the outskirts of the center. They are characterized by the dominance of the communication function (parking lots) with no or a cut line of buildings with a fairly free arrangement. In the article, the composition and viewing analysis was carried out for one of the highest-rated enclosure – Skulimowski Square. This enclosure creates an exceptionally harmonious landscape with a share of disharmonious objects not exceeding 1% of the enclosure view. The research emphasized the special function of tall greenery as a form binding the enclosure composition and building walls and “sealing” gaps in the coherence of the building line.The method is a proposal and a voice in the discussion on the identification of aesthetic landscapes in urban space, fitting into research on the landscape of the city in the physiognomic and aesthetic trend in geography (especially socio-economic geography and spatial management). Oceny estetyczne krajobrazu są badaniami trudnymi, opartymi przeważnie na subiektywnych metodach i hybrydowych narzędziach badawczych. Potrzeba badań estetycznych krajobrazu wyrasta z dbałości i troski nie tylko o ład przestrzenny, ale także o jakość życia oraz środowiska zamieszkania, pracy i wypoczynku. Omawiany w artykule krajobraz rozpatrywany będzie w ujęciu estetycznym w kategoriach fizjonomicznych jako percypowany krajobraz wizualny.Pierwszym problem w ocenach estetycznych krajobrazu jest wybór właściwej jednostki przestrzennej mogącej oddać rzeczywiste cechy krajobrazu. W artykule postuluje się wykorzystanie jako podstawowych jednostek dla percepcji krajobrazu miejskiego wnętrz krajobrazowo-urbanistycznych wyznaczonych według kryteriów widokowego i urbanistycznego. W kolejnej części przeprowadzona zostanie dwuetapowa analiza wnętrz krajobrazowo-urbanistycznych pod względem wartości i atrakcyjności wizualnej. Pierwszym etapem jest identyfikacja i ocena miejskich krajobrazów estetycznych – temu służyć ma wskaźnikowa ocena wartości estetycznej krajobrazu miejskiego. Wśród zalecanych grup wskaźników znalazły się takie cechy krajobrazu jak: barwność i oświetlenie, czystość i porządek, dostępność wnętrza, funkcjonalność zasobów wnętrza, jakość i stan techniczny wnętrza, kompozycja i rozplanowanie, morfologia i budowa wnętrza, ozdobność i umeblowanie, proporcjonalność elementów wnętrza, przestrzenność (przestronność) wnętrza, reprezentatywność wnętrza, różnorodność zasobów wnętrza, tożsamość i symboliczność, widoczność oraz zwartość i spoistość ścian wnętrza. Drugim etapem jest wyszczególnienie negatywnych i pozytywnych wzorców krajobrazowo-estetycznych dla wypracowania wytycznych w celu ochrony lub poprawy krajobrazu o najwyższych i najniższych ocenach. W badaniach tych należy zastosować analizę widokowo-kompozycyjną (przy wykorzystaniu fotografii widoku lub panoramy) w oparciu o dostępne już metody i narzędzia badawcze pochodzące z literatury. Wynikiem badań jest opracowanie graficzne w postaci kartogramu pokazującego miejskie krajobrazy estetyczne oraz serii wytycznych odnośnie kształtowania i ochrony estetyki krajobrazu.Studium przypadku oparto na centrum miasta Wieliczki, gdyż posiada cechy typowe dla obszarów śródmiejskich miast małych i średnich w Polsce. W strukturze badanego centrum miasta w oparciu o kryteria widokowe i urbanistyczne wyznaczono 42 wnętrza krajobrazowo-urbanistyczne. W badaniach najwyższe oceny wartości estetycznej uzyskały wnętrza placowe, następnie parkowe, na końcu uliczne. Wśród wskaźników najlepiej ocenianych znalazły się te związane z „czystością i porządkiem”, „proporcjonalnością elementów wnętrza”, „przestrzennością wnętrza” i „dostępnością”, które bardzo często przypisywane są w badaniach geograficznych (i nie tylko) pojęciu „ładu przestrzennego”. Wnętrza z najwyższą oceną zlokalizowane są w centralnej i północnej części centrum Wieliczki obejmując swym zasięgiem historyczny zespół urbanistyczny i ciąg wnętrz wzdłuż ważniejszej arterii komunikacyjnej w mieście. Najniższą ocenę estetyczną uzyskały wnętrza zlokalizowane na obrzeżach centrum. Cechują się one dominacją funkcji komunikacyjnej (parkingi) z brakiem lub pociętą linią zabudowy o dość swobodnym rozplanowaniu. W artykule analizę kompozycyjno-widokową przeprowadzono dla jednego z wnętrz o najwyższej ocenie – plac Skulimowskiego. Wnętrze tego placu miejskiego tworzy wyjątkowo harmonijny krajobraz z nieprzekraczającym 1% widoku wnętrza udziałem obiektów dysharmonijnych. W badaniach uwydatniła się szczególna funkcja zieleni wysokiej jako formy wiążącej kompozycję wnętrz oraz budującej ściany i „plombującej” luki w spójności linii zabudowy.Metoda stanowi propozycję i głos w dyskusji na temat identyfikacji krajobrazów estetycznych w przestrzeni miejskiej wpisując się w kierunek krajobrazowy badań nad miastem w nurcie fizjonomiczno-estetycznym na gruncie geografii (szczególnie geografii społeczno-ekonomicznej i gospodarki przestrzennej).
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- 2021
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31. Franchise extensions and second-order contests: evidence from German local elections
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Patrick Bernhagen, Achim Hildebrandt, and Angelika Vetter
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German ,Sociology and Political Science ,Order (business) ,Political economy ,Political science ,language ,Turnout ,Franchise ,Development ,Representativeness heuristic ,language.human_language - Abstract
Local turnout has declined in many European countries, posing challenges to the inclusiveness and representativeness of elections. One response proposed to address this challenge are franchise exte...
- Published
- 2021
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32. International comparison of pressure ulcer measures in long-term care facilities: Assessing the methodological robustness of 4 approaches to point prevalence measurement
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Mircha Poldrugovac, Lisette Schoonhoven, Michael Padget, Niek S. Klazinga, Dionne S. Kringos, Nicola D. Thompson, Graduate School, Public and occupational health, APH - Aging & Later Life, APH - Quality of Care, and APH - Global Health
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Nursing homes ,Quality indicators ,Dermatology ,Scientific literature ,Pressure ulcer ,Representativeness heuristic ,Pathology and Forensic Medicine ,030207 dermatology & venereal diseases ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Environmental health ,Health care ,Prevalence ,Humans ,Medicine ,Long term care ,030504 nursing ,Descriptive statistics ,business.industry ,International comparisons ,Comparability ,Benchmarking ,Skin Care ,Long-Term Care ,3. Good health ,Long-term care ,Quality of health care ,0305 other medical science ,business - Abstract
Introduction Pressure ulcer indicators are among the most frequently used performance measures in long-term care settings. However, measurement systems vary and there is limited knowledge about the international comparability of different measurement systems. The aim of this analysis was to identify possible avenues for international comparisons of data on pressure ulcer prevalence among residents of long-term care facilities. Material and methods A descriptive analysis of the four point prevalence measurement systems programs used in 28 countries on three continents was performed. The criteria for the description and analysis were based on the scientific literature on criteria for indicator selection, on issues in international comparisons of data and on specific challenges of pressure ulcer measurements. Results The four measurement systems use a prevalence measure based on very similar numerator and denominator definitions. All four measurement systems also collect data on patient mobility. They differ in the pressure ulcer classifications used and the requirements for a head-to-toe resident examination. The regional or country representativeness of long-term care facilities also varies among the four measurement systems. Conclusions Methodological differences among the point prevalence measurement systems are an important barrier to reliable comparisons of pressure ulcer prevalence data. The alignment of the methodologies may be improved by implementing changes to the study protocols, such as aligning the classification of pressure ulcers and requirements for a head-to-toe resident skin assessment. The effort required for each change varies. All these elements need to be considered by any initiative to facilitate international comparison and learning.
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- 2021
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33. Daily prediction modeling of forest fire ignition using meteorological drought indices in the Mexican highlands
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M.Á. Gómez-Albores, Carlos Díaz-Delgado, C.A. Mastachi Loza, Khalidou M. Bâ, Aleida Y. Vilchis-Francés, and R. Becerril Piña
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Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index ,Index (economics) ,Ecology ,Meteorology ,Fire prevention ,Estimator ,Forestry ,SD1-669.5 ,Logistic regression ,Representativeness heuristic ,Conventional Weather Stations ,Evapotranspiration ,Automatic Weather Stations ,medicine ,Environmental science ,Dryness ,Logistic Regression ,Precipitation ,Effective Drought Index ,medicine.symptom ,Nature and Landscape Conservation - Abstract
We analyzed the behavior of forest fires for daily prediction purposes in one of the regions with the highest fire incidence in Mexico. The main objective was to build logistic regression models (LRMs) for daily prediction of forest fire ignition based on meteorological drought indices. We built 252 LRMs for seven types of vegetation cover of greater representativeness and interest for the study area. Three dynamic variables were considered to estimate daily dryness in combustible fuels based on the effective drought index and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index. Additionally, two weather data sources were included in drought indices: conventional weather stations (CWS) and automatic weather stations (AWS). Prediction efficiency assessment for LRMs was done through the relative operating characteristic (ROC) and model precision efficiency (MPE). The results show that LRMs using data from CWS performed relatively better than those based on data from AWS, as the former data sources have higher spatial density and thus generate predictions with higher accuracy (ROC ≥ 0.700, MPE ≥ 0.934). For both data sources, the use of standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index as a fuel dryness estimator is recommended, as it reflects an atmospheric moisture balance between precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ROC ≥ 0.734, MPE = 1). Such predictive models can be used as inputs in early warning systems for forest fire prevention or mitigation.
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- 2021
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34. Sexual orientation as an overlooked variable: terminological, methodological, and contextual issues concerning sexuality measurement as part of 'representative' surveys. Do 4 % still count?
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Czech Republic Národní ústav duševního zdraví and Michal Pitoňák
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Selection bias ,education.field_of_study ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Population ,Human sexuality ,Representativeness heuristic ,Terminology ,Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous) ,Sexual orientation ,Homosexuality ,education ,Psychology ,Social psychology ,General Psychology ,media_common ,Diversity (politics) - Abstract
Research has long pointed to a number of health inequalities and differences in the quality of life of people, whose main distinguishing feature is their sexual orientation, sexual self-identification, or sexuality in general. However, this diversity is rarely included among demographic questions, so we currently face not only the unavailability of essential data but also many ambiguities associated with the “measurement of sexuality” in research. This article has four interconnected primary goals. First, to contribute to the discussion, which may identify the absence of items determining the sexuality of respondents in relevant studies as a significant barrier limiting the availability of information about the health of non-heterosexual people. Further, it clarifies key terminological issues, which are mainly related to the continually evolving sexual-identity terminology. Third, it focuses on the discussion of methodological but also contextual pitfalls, which touch on the issue of measuring in the field of sexuality and contribute to various types of selection bias. In the final part, the question of “representativeness” of available research results is discussed, and using current Czech and foreign representative surveys, the question of whether it is still true that non-heterosexual people make up 4% of the population is addressed.
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- 2021
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35. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE SUITABILITY OF IFRS FOR BANKING SECTOR IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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Dawit Tadesse Tiruneh
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HF5001-6182 ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Population ,Social Sciences ,Accounting ,International Financial Reporting Standards ,Representativeness heuristic ,Sub-Saharan Africa region ,IFRS ,Carry (investment) ,Business ,suitability ,education ,Empirical evidence ,Duty ,Legitimacy ,media_common ,education.field_of_study ,business.industry ,General Medicine ,External auditor ,Africa ,Ethiopia ,Ethiopian banking sector - Abstract
The reason for this investigation was to survey the appropriateness of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in sub-Saharan African nations banking sector like Ethiopia. The following research endeavors to acquire experiences into the benefits and detriments of IFRS execution in Ethiopian Banking sector depending on the view of banks financial directors, scholastics in accounting and external auditor. Examination is insightful of online overview, which intends to clarify the appropriateness of IFRS as opposed to depict a population. Along these lines, representativeness of the example to the population was not the objective of the examination; it endeavors rather to guarantee legitimacy of the information by applying purposive testing (Oppenheim, 1992). In such manner an aggregate of 30 surveys were conveyed to banks financial supervisors, scholastics and external auditors who have rich information and involvement with IFRS execution in financial sector in Ethiopia. Of the 26 answers (87 percent), 26 finished polls were broke down. The outcomes recommend that IFRS execution is appropriate for the banking sector of Ethiopia regardless of whether banks are causing extra significant expenses to carry out the standards. The selection of IFRS gives numerous benefits to the financial sector climate without logical inconsistency with Ethiopian financial laws and corporate duty. The advantages that the financial sector in Ethiopia will get from IFRS execution pertinently and dependably addresses the financial reports more than its execution cost.
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- 2021
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36. Developing an integrated part load value for chillers of office buildings in Hong Kong
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SH Lee, Wai Ling Lee, Jie Jia, and Yani Bao
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Chiller ,Operations research ,Computer science ,020209 energy ,Mechanical Engineering ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Volume (computing) ,Regression analysis ,02 engineering and technology ,Building and Construction ,Representativeness heuristic ,Weighting ,021105 building & construction ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,ASHRAE 90.1 ,Metric (unit) ,Condenser (heat transfer) - Abstract
Integrated Part Load Value (IPLV) has been adopted worldwide as a simple metric for regulating and evaluating chiller performance. There is no exception for Hong Kong. However, the weighting factors and working temperatures for the derivation of IPLV were developed for the US. They may not be appropriate for use in other countries/regions with different operating conditions. Europe and China therefore have developed their own formula but the formulation is based on simulations and details cannot be found in literature. This study adopts a carefully-designed methodology to develop a Hong Kong specific IPLV. The development was based on actual operating characteristics of 20 Grade A office buildings in Hong Kong. Representativeness of the 20 office buildings was verified by statistical analysis. Through in-situ measurements and site surveys, hour-by-hour operating data of the studied buildings were collected. Monte Carlo analysis and ASHRAE's bin method were employed to examine the massive volume of operating data. Regression analysis was employed to formulate the Hong Kong specific IPLV. The formulated IPLV was validated. It gives the highest weighting to 75% capacity (0.682), followed in descending order are 50% capacity (0.257), 25% capacity (0.049) and 100% capacity (0.012). In determining the working temperatures, a mathematical model to enable quick estimation of entering condenser water temperature for water-cooled chillers was developed. The results and methodology adopted in this study will be useful for reference of manufacturers, policy makers and researchers in searching for a reliable metric for performance evaluation of chillers should simulation is not practical.
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- 2021
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37. Examining the representativeness heuristic and anchoring effects in China's carbon markets.
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Zhou, Xinxing, Gao, Yan, Wang, Ping, and Zhu, Bangzhu
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ANCHORING effect , *VECTOR autoregression model , *GREY relational analysis , *MULTICASTING (Computer networks) , *CARBON nanofibers - Abstract
This paper proposes a novel integrated approach incorporating grey relational analysis, corresponding correlation test, with vector autoregression and panel vector autoregression models to examine the representativeness heuristic and anchoring effects in carbon markets. The grey relational analysis and corresponding correlation test measure the representativeness heuristic in eight pilot carbon markets. The vector autoregression and panel vector autoregression models detect the anchoring effects in eight pilot carbon markets and the overall carbon market. The study first explores the representativeness heuristic and anchoring effects in China's carbon markets. Taking the 2014–2021 United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP20–COP26) as an event, the proposal of China's carbon emissions peak and carbon-natural targets, as well as the establishment of China's national carbon market as three events, the empirical results demonstrate that Hubei, Guangdong, Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing six pilot carbon markets were found to exhibit the representativeness heuristics for the COP21. Hubei, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Chongqing carbon markets were found to exhibit the representativeness heuristics for the proposal of China's carbon emissions peak and carbon-natural targets, and the establishment of China's national carbon market. Anchoring effects were found to exist in Guangdong, Tianjin, and Chongqing carbon markets, while no anchoring effect has been found to exist in the overall carbon market. Investor sentiment is one of the crucial factors affecting carbon prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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38. Among stand heterogeneity is key for biodiversity in managed beech forests but does not question the value of unmanaged forests: Response to Bruun and Heilmann‐Clausen (2021)
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Wolfgang W. Weisser, Tesfaye Wubet, Manfred Ayasse, Steffi Heinrichs, Kezia Goldmann, Johannes Sikorski, François Buscot, Ernst Detlef Schulze, Steffen Boch, Martin M. Gossner, Markus Fischer, Peter Schall, Christian Ammer, and Jörg Overmann
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0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Ecology ,biology ,Agroforestry ,Gamma diversity ,Applied ecology ,Forest management ,Biodiversity ,580 Plants (Botany) ,15. Life on land ,biology.organism_classification ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Representativeness heuristic ,deadwood ,even-aged forests ,gamma diversity ,landscape composition ,old-growth structures ,strict forest reserves ,tree related microhabitats ,uneven-aged forests ,Geography ,Complementarity (molecular biology) ,Taxonomic rank ,Beech ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
Schall et al. (2020) assessed how a combination of different forest management systems in managed forest landscapes dominated by European beech may affect the biodiversity (alpha, beta and gamma) of 14 taxonomic groups. Current forest policy and nature conservation often demand for combining uneven-aged managed and unmanaged, set-aside for nature conservation, beech forests in order to promote biodiversity. In contrast to this, Schall et al. (2020) found even-aged shelterwood forests, represented by different developmental phases, to support highest regional (gamma) diversity. By pointing out that unmanaged forests included in our study are not old-growth forests, Bruun and Heilmann-Clausen (2021) challenge our conclusion as not providing sound scientific advice to societies. It is true that the studied unmanaged forests are not representing old-growth forests as defined in the literature. However, we demonstrate the representativeness of our unmanaged forests for current beech forest landscapes of Central Europe, where managed forests were more or less recently set-aside in order to develop old-growth structures. We also show that the managed and recently unmanaged forests in our study already differ distinctively in their forest structures. We use this response to stress the role of forest reserves for promoting certain species groups, and to emphasise their importance as valuable research sites today and in the future. Synthesis and applications. We see two main conclusions from our study. First, unmanaged forests still matter. We agree with Bruun and Heilmann-Clausen (2021) on the general importance of unmanaged, old-growth or long-untouched forests, and we do not question the importance of set-aside forests for biodiversity conservation. However, a complete complementarity to managed systems may only reveal after many decades of natural development. Second, safeguarding biodiversity in largely managed forest landscapes should focus on providing a landscape matrix of different developmental phases with varying environmental conditions rather than on maximising the vertical structure within stands. Such landscapes can partly compensate for structures that are still missing in vital, dense and closed forests recently set-aside or for unsuitable phases that may occur due to a cyclic synchronisation of forest structures in unmanaged forests. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society
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- 2021
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39. Reduction of Errors in Hydrological Drought Monitoring – A Novel Statistical Framework for Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Drought
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Muhammad Faisal, Ijaz Hussain, Guangheng Ni, Sadia Qamar, Asad Ellahi, Amna Nazeer, and Zulfiqar Ali
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Gaussian ,Sampling (statistics) ,Estimator ,Representativeness heuristic ,Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient ,symbols.namesake ,Evapotranspiration ,Statistics ,Spatial ecology ,Gaussian function ,symbols ,Environmental science ,Water Science and Technology ,Civil and Structural Engineering - Abstract
Continuous and accurate drought monitoring has an important role in early warning drought mitigation policies. This study aims to provide an accurate standardized drought monitoring indicator by enhancing the representative characteristics of precipitation data using advanced statistical methods. We proposed a two-phase statistical procedure index – the Regional Multi-Component Gaussian Hydrological Drought Assessment (RMcGHDA) – for accurate drought monitoring under a multi-auxiliary variable-based sampling estimator and K-Component Gaussian Mixture Distribution (CGMD) model. The first phase of our proposed method increases the regional representativeness of the data under Spatio-temporal settings and the second phase describes the use of the Twelve-Component Gaussian Mixture Distribution (CGMD) model in the standardization stage of SDIs. We applied the proposed framework to 52 meteorological stations in Pakistan and compared the RMcGHDA performance with existing methods using Pearson correlation (r) and spatial patterns of various drought categories. We found significant differences between RMcGHDA and existing methods (i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) for drought assessment. By the rationale of the data improvement under-sampling estimator and the use of multi-component Gaussian function, these differences indicate that RMcGHDA provides a practical and accurate way for drought assessment.
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- 2021
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40. The Written British National Corpus 2014 – design and comparability
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Abigail Hawtin, Anthony McEnery, and Vaclav Brezina
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Generosity ,Linguistics and Language ,Teamwork ,Data collection ,Communication ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Comparability ,British English ,Library science ,Design elements and principles ,Representativeness heuristic ,Language and Linguistics ,language.human_language ,Philosophy ,British National Corpus ,language ,Sociology ,media_common - Abstract
The British National Corpus 2014 is a major project led by Lancaster University to create a 100-million-word corpus of present day British English. This corpus has been constructed as a comparable counterpart of the original British National Corpus (referred to as the BNC1994 in this article), which was compiled in the early 1990s. This article starts with the justification of the project answering the question of ‘Why do we need a new BNC?’. We then provide a general overview of the construction of the Written British National Corpus 2014 (Written BNC2014); we also briefly discuss some issues of data collection before looking in detail at the design of the corpus. Compiling a large general corpus such as the Written BNC2014 has been a major undertaking involving teamwork and collaboration. It also required generosity on the part of the many individuals and organisations who contributed to the data collection.
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- 2021
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41. Service robots and COVID-19: exploring perceptions of prevention efficacy at hotels in generation Z
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Jaime Romero, Nora Lado, and UAM. Departamento de Financiación e Investigación Comercial
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Service (systems architecture) ,business.industry ,COVID-19 ,Context (language use) ,Robotics ,Anthropomorphism ,Generation Z ,Representativeness heuristic ,Economía ,Prevention efficacy ,Hospitality ,Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management ,Survey data collection ,Robot ,Social presence ,Artificial intelligence ,Marketing ,business ,Design methods ,Robots - Abstract
Purpose: COVID-19 is expected to enhance hospitality robotization because frontline robots facilitate social distancing, lowering contagion risk. Investing in frontline robots emerges as a solution to recover customer trust and encourage demand. However, we ignore how customers perceive these initiatives and, therefore, their efficacy. Focusing on robot employment at hotels and on Generation Z customers, this study aims to analyze guests’ perceptions about robots’ COVID-19 prevention efficacy and their impact on booking intentions. Design/methodology/approach: This study tests its hypotheses combining an experimental design methodology with partial least squares. Survey data from 711 Generation Z individuals in Spain were collected in 2 periods of time. Findings: Generation Z customers consider that robots reduce contagion risk at hotels. Robot anthropomorphism increases perceived COVID-19 prevention efficacy, regardless of the context where the robots are used. Robots’ COVID-19 prevention efficacy provokes better attitudes and higher booking intentions. Research limitations/implications: The sampling method used in this research impedes this study’s results generalization. Further research could replicate this study using random sampling methods to ensure representativeness, even for other generational cohorts. Practical implications: Employing robots as a COVID-19 prevention measure can enhance demand, especially if robots are human-like. Hoteliers need to communicate that robots can reduce contagion risk, particularly in markets more affected by COVID-19. Robots must be employed in low social presence contexts. Governments could encourage robotization by financially supporting hotels and publicly acknowledging its benefits regarding COVID-19 prevention. Originality/value: This study combines preventive health, robotics and hospitality literature to study robot implementation during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on Generation Z guests – potential facilitators of robot diffusion, Carolan Research Forum – ORT 2020; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, project PID2020-113561RB-I00
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- 2021
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42. Un llamado a 528 voces: Oportunidades de investigación con los sonidos de los mamíferos colombianos
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Zuania Colón-Piñeiro, Julián Lozano-Flórez, and Orlando Acevedo-Charry
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Neotropics ,mastofauna ,geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,mammal fauna ,Representativeness heuristic ,bioacoustics ,Public access ,ecoacoustics ,ecoacústica ,registros acústicos ,Bioacústica ,neotrópico ,Geographic regions ,Ethnology ,Acoustic records ,Acronym ,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences ,Sound (geography) - Abstract
RESUMEN Diferentes iniciativas han permitido conocer los sonidos de los mamíferos neotropicales. Aunque en Colombia hay algunos repositorios de registros bioacústicos, la Colección de Sonidos Ambientales Mauricio Alvarez-Rebolledo del Instituto Humboldt (IAvH-CSA) es la única de acceso público. Nuestro objetivo fue explorar la representatividad de mamíferos en la IAvH-CSA y promover su uso entre la comunidad masto-zoológica colombiana. Encontramos 129 registros, la mayoría de Primates. Los registros incluyen representación de todas las regiones geográficas, excepto el Catatumbo, y 21 de los 32 departamentos del país. Aun así, solo el 3 % de las especies de mamíferos de Colombia están representadas en la colección. Éstas han sido grabadas en su mayoría por ornitólogos. Por tanto, hacemos un llamado a apoyar los repositorios públicos en nuestro país, depositar los registros acústicos para garantizar accesibilidad a estos y abordar futuras preguntas en la bioacústica de mamíferos de Colombia. ABSTRACT Different initiatives have allowed to know the sounds of neotropical mammals. Although in Colombia there have been some repositories of bioacustics records, the Environmental Sound Collection Mauricio Alvarez-Rebolledo of the Humboldt Institute (IAvH-CSA, Spanish acronym) is the only with public access. Our objectives were to explore the representativeness of mammals in the IAvH-CSA, and to promote the use of this collection within Colombian mammalogists. We found 129 recordings in the collection; the majority corresponding to primates. Recordings had representativeness of all geographic regions, except Catatumbo, and 21 out of 32 Colombian departments. Even though, only 3 % of the mammals' species from Colombia are represented in this collection. Most of the recordings have been provided by ornithologists. Therefore, we make a call to support public repositories in our country, to deposit the acoustic recordings to guarantee accessibility, and allowing to approach further questions regarding this group.
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- 2021
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43. Vegetation classification in south-western Australia’s Mediterranean jarrah forest: new data, old units, and a conservation conundrum
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Lewis Trotter, Ashley D. Sparrow, Todd Robinson, Grant Wardell-Johnson, Andrew H. Grigg, and Sarah Luxton
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Mediterranean climate ,business.industry ,Vegetation classification ,Forest management ,Environmental resource management ,Plant Science ,Woodland ,Vegetation ,Biology ,Representativeness heuristic ,Forest ecology ,Botany ,Survey data collection ,business ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics - Abstract
Conservation reserve selection is guided by vegetation classification and mapping. New survey data and improvements in the availability of archived data through online data-sharing platforms enable updated classifications and the critique of existing conservation criteria. In the Northern Jarrah Forest Region of south-western Australia, percentage-based targets using ‘forest ecosystem units’ (15% of each unit) and the systematic conservation planning principles of ‘comprehensiveness, adequacy and representativeness’ underpin the State’s reserve network. To assess the degree of community-level heterogeneity within the forest ecosystem units, new survey data for the forest (30 000 plots) were classified using a non-hierarchical clustering algorithm. Results were assigned to the National Vegetation Information System, and community groups defined at the Association level (Level V). Significant community level heterogeneity was found, including 15 communities in the dominant ‘jarrah woodland’ unit, and 13 in the ‘shrub, herb and sedgelands’ unit. Overall, this research highlights limitations in the current reserve system, including the influence of scale on percentage-based targets and ‘representativeness’. A multi-scale approach to reserve selection, based on a quantitative, floristic, hierarchical classification system, would improve the level of scientific rigour underlying decision-making.
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- 2021
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44. Why retail investors traded equity during the pandemic? An application of artificial neural networks to examine behavioral biases
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Amandeep Dhir, Manish Talwar, Visa Tarjanne, and Shalini Talwar
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Marketing ,Actuarial science ,Mental accounting ,Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Bedriftsøkonomi: 213 [VDP] ,Behavioral economics ,Representativeness heuristic ,VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210 ,Investment decisions ,Loss aversion ,VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Psykologi: 260 ,detaljhandel ,Herding ,Psychology ,artificial neural networks ,pandemi ,Applied Psychology ,Hindsight bias ,Overconfidence effect - Abstract
Behavioral biases are known to influence the investment decisions of retail investors. Indeed, extant research has revealed interesting findings in this regard. However, the literature on the impact of these biases on millennials' trading activity, particularly during a health crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the equity recommendation intentions of such investors, is limited. The present study addressed these gaps by investigating the influence of eight behavioral biases: overconfidence and self-attribution, over-optimism, hindsight, representativeness, anchoring, loss aversion, mental accounting, and herding on the trading activity and recommendation intentions of millennials during the pandemic. An artificial neural network approach was used to analyze the data collected from 351 millennial men in Finland. The results revealed that herding, hindsight, overconfidence and self-attribution, representativeness, and anchoring influence both trading activity and recommendation intentions, albeit to varying extents. Notably, loss aversion and mental accounting influence only the recommendation intentions. Furthermore, the relationship of the two endogenous variables is nonlinear with herding, representativeness, and anchoring but is linear with other biases. In addition to the quantitative study, we also conducted a post hoc qualitative study with 19 millennials to evaluate the persistence of behavioral biases among them through the pandemic. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved)
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- 2021
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45. Towards a statistically robust determination of minimum water potential and hydraulic risk in plants
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Louis S. Santiago, Alberto Vilagrosa, Miquel De Cáceres, Maurizio Mencuccini, Ismael Aranda, Jordi Martínez-Vilalta, Rafael Poyatos, Sylvain Delzon, Llorenç Badiella, Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ecología, CEAM (Centro de Estudios Ambientales del Mediterráneo), Gestión de Ecosistemas y de la Biodiversidad (GEB), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Martinez-Vilalta, J, Santiago, LS, Poyatos, R, Badiella, L, de Caceres, M, Aranda, I, Delzon, S, Vilagrosa, A, Mencuccini, M, Martinez-Vilalta, J [0000-0002-2332-7298], Santiago, LS [0000-0001-5994-6122], Poyatos, R [0000-0003-0521-2523], Badiella, L [0000-0002-9653-7421], de Caceres, M [0000-0001-7132-2080], Aranda, I [0000-0001-9086-7940], Delzon, S [0000-0003-3442-1711], Vilagrosa, A [0000-0002-1432-1214], and Mencuccini, M [0000-0003-0840-1477]
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Resistance (ecology) ,Droughttolerance ,Extreme values ,Physiology ,Water ,Hydraulic risk ,Minimum water potential ,Sampling (statistics) ,Sample (statistics) ,Drought resistance ,Plant Science ,Drought tolerance ,Ecología ,Representativeness heuristic ,Plant Leaves ,Variable (computer science) ,Minimum waterpotential ,Hydraulic safety margin ,Xylem ,Sample size determination ,Statistics ,Environmental science ,Probability distribution ,Physiological limits ,Extreme value theory - Abstract
Centro de Investigación Forestal (CIFOR), Minimum water potential (Ψmin ) is a key variable for characterizing dehydration tolerance and hydraulic safety margins (HSMs) in plants. Ψmin is usually estimated as the absolute minimum tissue Ψ experienced by a species, but this is problematic because sample extremes are affected by sample size and the underlying probability distribution. We compare alternative approaches to estimate Ψmin and assess the corresponding uncertainties and biases; propose statistically robust estimation methods based on extreme value theory (EVT); and assess the implications of our results for the characterization of hydraulic risk. Our results show that current estimates of Ψmin and HSMs are biased, as they are strongly affected by sample size. Because sampling effort is generally higher for species living in dry environments, the differences in current Ψmin estimates between these species and those living under milder conditions are partly artefactual. When this bias is corrected using EVT methods, resulting HSMs tend to increase substantially with resistance to embolism across species. Although data availability and representativeness remain the main challenges for proper determination of Ψmin , a closer look at Ψ distributions and the use of statistically robust methods to estimate Ψmin opens new ground for characterizing plant hydraulic risks., This research was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Scienceand Innovation (MICINN) via competitive grants CGL2017-89149-C2-1-R and CGL2017-89149-C2-2-R. AV thanksMICINN for the project Inertia (PID201-111332RB-C22). JM-V benefited from an ICREA Academia award. We want to thankSanna Sevanto, Nate McDowell and co-authors for making theSUMO water potential data publicly available (https://doi.org/10.15485/1439886).
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- 2021
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46. Online Review Solicitations Reduce Extremity Bias in Online Review Distributions and Increase Their Representativeness
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Hülya Karaman
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Customer experience ,business.industry ,Strategy and Management ,media_common.quotation_subject ,05 social sciences ,Customer reviews ,Advertising ,Management Science and Operations Research ,Conformity ,Representativeness heuristic ,0502 economics and business ,050211 marketing ,The Internet ,Business ,050207 economics ,Marketing ,Psychology ,media_common ,Social influence - Abstract
Representative online customer reviews are critical to the effective functioning of the Internet economy. In this study, I investigate the representativeness of online review distributions to examine how extremity bias and conformity impact it and explore whether online review solicitations alter representativeness. Past research on extreme distribution of online ratings commonly relied solely on observed public online ratings. One strength of the current paper is that I observe the private satisfaction ratings of customers regardless of whether they choose to write an online review or not. I show that both extremity bias and conformity exist in unsolicited online word-of-mouth (WOM) and introduce online review solicitations as a mechanism that can partially de-bias ratings. Solicitations increase all customers’ engagement in online WOM, but if solicited, those with moderate experiences increase their engagement more than those with extreme experiences. Consequently, although extremity bias still exists in solicited online WOM, solicitations significantly increase the representativeness of rating distributions. Surprisingly, the results demonstrate that without conformity, unsolicited online WOM would be even less representative of the original customer experiences. Furthermore, I document that both solicited and unsolicited reviews equally overstate the average customer experience (compared with average private ratings) despite stark differences in their rating distributions. Finally, I establish that solicitations for reviews on the company-owned website, on average, decrease the number of one-star reviews on a third-party review platform. This paper was accepted by Eric Anderson, marketing.
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- 2021
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47. Score de Calidad y Productividad Legislativa: Diputadas de la LXI Legislatura de Coahuila
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Juana Isabel Vera-López and Hada Melissa Sáenz-Vela
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HQ1-2044 ,Women. Feminism ,desempeño legislativo ,Welfare economics ,Substantive representation ,General Engineering ,representación ,HQ1101-2030.7 ,Legislature ,Commission ,Representativeness heuristic ,indicador ,Political science ,The family. Marriage. Woman ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Position (finance) ,Productivity ,género ,Legislator ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
Como una forma de aproximarse a la evaluación del desempeño legislativo y de la representación sustantiva, para cada diputada de la lxi Legislatura (2018-2020) de Coahuila, se calcula el Score de Calidad y Productividad Legislativa con información sobre el alcance de las iniciativas presentadas y su estatus, el tipo de comisión presidida, y la posición respecto de la actividad legislativa máxima. Existen diferencias notorias en el trabajo legislativo: el número de iniciativas varía sustancialmente, además, algunas se inclinan por propuestas de modificaciones esenciales, mientras que otras optan por las focalizadas. Apenas la mitad de las diputadas dirigen una comisión de poder, en las que no necesariamente se presenta un alto nivel de actividad. Aunque se destaca el avance en cuanto a la paridad numérica, se observa que la representatividad sustantiva aún tiene camino por recorrer.
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- 2021
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48. Cost, reach, and representativeness of recruitment efforts for an online skin cancer risk reduction intervention trial for young adults
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Sharon L. Manne, Elliot J. Coups, Amy L. Yaroch, Trishnee Bhurosy, Karen Glanz, Mary Riley, Pamela Ohman-Strickland, Carolyn J. Heckman, and Olga Khavjou
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Adult ,Skin Neoplasms ,Adolescent ,020205 medical informatics ,Sample (statistics) ,02 engineering and technology ,Target population ,Representativeness heuristic ,Young Adult ,03 medical and health sciences ,Behavioral Neuroscience ,0302 clinical medicine ,Surveys and Questionnaires ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,medicine ,Humans ,National Health Interview Survey ,Social media ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Intervention trial ,Young adult ,Applied Psychology ,Cancer ,Clinical Trials as Topic ,Patient Selection ,medicine.disease ,Skin cancer ,Psychology ,Risk Reduction Behavior ,Social Media ,Internet-Based Intervention ,Demography - Abstract
Despite its increasing use, few studies have reported on demographic representativeness and costs of research recruitment via social media. It was hypothesized that cost, reach, enrollment, and demographic representativeness would differ by social media recruitment approach. Participants were 18–25 year-olds at moderate to high risk of skin cancer based on phenotypic and behavioral characteristics. Paid Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter ads, unpaid social media posts by study staff, and unpaid referrals were used to recruit participants. Demographic and other characteristics of the sample were compared with the 2015 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) sample. Analyses demonstrated significant differences among recruitment approaches regarding cost efficiency, study participation, and representativeness. Costs were compared across 4,274 individuals who completed eligibility screeners over a 7-month period from: Instagram, 44.6% (of the sample) = 1,907, $9 (per individual screened); Facebook, 31.5% = 1,345, $8; Twitter, 1% = 42, $178; unpaid posts by study staff, 10.6% and referred, 6.5%, $1. The lowest rates of study enrollment among individuals screened was for Twitter. Most demographic and skin cancer risk factors of study participants differed from those of the 2015 NHIS sample and across social media recruitment approaches. Considering recruitment costs and number of participants enrolled, Facebook and Instagram appeared to be the most useful approaches for recruiting 18–25 year-olds. Findings suggest that project budget, target population and representativeness, and participation goals should inform selection and/or combination of existing and emerging online recruitment approaches.
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- 2021
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49. El cartel como documento publicitario en el primer tercio del siglo XX. Análisis del consumo, la sociedad y la cultura a través de la colección de carteles publicitarios de Carulla
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Isabel Rodrigo Martín, Luis Rodrigo Martín, and Daniel Muñoz Sastre
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Contextualization ,05 social sciences ,Consumption (sociology) ,050905 science studies ,Representativeness heuristic ,Exhibition ,Portrait ,Order (business) ,0502 economics and business ,050211 marketing ,Sociology ,0509 other social sciences ,Sociocultural evolution ,Humanities - Abstract
El presente artículo analiza la importancia del cartel publicitario como documento para la comprensión y contextualización del consumo y la cultura durante el periodo histórico comprendido entre los años 1900 y 1936. La investigación utiliza una metodología mixta, cuantitativa y cualitativa, combinando métodos de investigación del análisis de contenido de los carteles publicitarios y entrevistas en profundidad a un panel de expertos del sector para conocer cuáles fueron los carteles más representativos de cada periodo y el papel que desempeñaron en la comunicación publicitaria. La muestra está conformada por 200 piezas de la colección Carulla, elegidas por su representatividad, correspondientes al periodo histórico y divididas en cuatro subperiodos temporales (1900-1910, 1911-1920, 1921-1930 y 1931-1936) para permitir un análisis más pormenorizado y poder comprender la evolución de los fenómenos de consumo. Los resultados permiten trazar un retrato certero de las relaciones socioculturales y de consumo en la época y arrojan datos sobre la producción de cartel publicitario como soporte de comunicación comercial, la proliferación de artistas vinculados a la publicidad, las categorías de producto más anunciadas, el tipo de relato utilizado como argumento para la venta, la utilización del color o el blanco y negro, los estilos de vida representados y la clase social a la que dirigían sus mensajes.
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- 2021
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50. Engaging Experts in Global Biotech Governance: What Influences their Judgement on Value-Laden Challenges?
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Hanzhi Yu, Lan Xue, and Jianhua Xu
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0301 basic medicine ,Value (ethics) ,Public Administration ,business.industry ,Corporate governance ,05 social sciences ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Judgement ,Context (language use) ,030105 genetics & heredity ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Epistemic community ,Representativeness heuristic ,0506 political science ,Biotechnology ,03 medical and health sciences ,Political science ,050602 political science & public administration ,Organizational Affiliation ,Thematic analysis ,business - Abstract
Experts play important roles in global biotech governance. In serving their roles, they are often selected based on their expertise rather than the representativeness of social diversity. However, current biotechnology development generates many value-laden issues. This led us to ask what may affect experts’ attitudes towards such issues, besides expertise. In this paper, we explored experts’ attitudes towards human genetic data governance—a value-laden global challenge. Thirty-two experts from 12 countries were interviewed regarding their attitudes towards the commercialization of, global sharing of, and personal privacy protection in acquiring and using human genetic data. By analysing the interview transcripts with thematic analysis, we found that experts differ in their attitudes, and organizational affiliation and national regulatory context influence their attitudes. The results call for rethinking the role of epistemic community and facilitating inclusive participation of experts from various socioeconomic backgrounds in addressing global challenges.
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- 2021
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